Bercow - a chance to go down in history

[dsr]

I'm unable to accept that there are two points of view?

Jeez that is rich.



Based on what?

IT IS LIKE BELIEVING IN GOD. YOU DO NOT MAKE DECISIONS LIKE THIS BASED ON ZERO EVIDENCE.

Not once have I told you lot that you cannot have a point of view. Not once. All I want you to do is to look at the reality and the facts of the situation and then justify your decision to people like me.

This thread is a case in point. Summit is just ignoring stuff that doesn't fit in with his point of view.

He's entitled to that, just like I'm entitled to point that out.

You are dragging this country into an uncertain future based on belief and absolutely **** all else. That is bloody dangerous and I'll continue calling it out with fact based reasoning as long as you keep repeating the zero evidence reasons.

You still don't get it. It doesn't matter on what evidence I or anyone else voted. What you persistently and wrongly bang on about is that Brexiters voted that way because they do not care about their children and grandchildren; you can only believe this fantasy because you believe they accept your version of a post-Brexit world.

It makes no difference whether you are Cassandra herself, doomed to preach truth while everyone disbelieves. People who vote Brexit did so because they don't believe you, not because they believe you and they like what you preach.

[Lancasterclaret]

Summit

The backstop needs to be there for more than fish and trade.

I don't think you get that, and rather more worryingly, I don't think the Conservative Party do either.

Please remember that I want a deal that avoids a "No Deal".

I don't want a bullshit deal that actually makes it more likely as it wastes more time.

[dsr]

Why do they think Brexit is best? What evidence are they basing this assumption on?

It doesn't matter what evidence they base it on. What I was saying is that Brexiters genuinely believe (as I do) that Brexit is best for the country and their families. Lancaster's view is that they don't believe that - he believes they don't care about the country or their families and are in it only for themselves.

[martin_p]

It doesn't matter what evidence they base it on. What I was saying is that Brexiters genuinely believe (as I do) that Brexit is best for the country and their families. Lancaster's view is that they don't believe that - he believes they don't care about the country or their families and are in it only for themselves.

And what Lancaster said is that ‘genuinely believing’ something without any evidence is a dangerous act of faith when all the experts predict disaster. You’ve got to have something more than ‘belief’ to be making such potentially life changing decisions surely?

[Lancasterclaret]

Nope, I get it.

Just like I get why people are Christians (other deities are available!)

You are voting because you want Brexit. You think it will be great.

You are voting because your belief trumps everything else. If it makes you sleep easier at night thinking that you are doing it for the next two generations, then you crack on.

But over two years, just like all the Brexiteers, you are now reduced to going on about how we don't understand why you did and why you are doing it.

Because over those two years, all arguments in favour have been destroyed by reality and evidence.

And on that, I'm going to declare on 798 for 0.

[JohnMcGreal]

It doesn't matter what evidence they base it on. What I was saying is that Brexiters genuinely believe (as I do) that Brexit is best for the country and their families. Lancaster's view is that they don't believe that - he believes they don't care about the country or their families and are in it only for themselves.

But at what point does this well-intentioned belief become a dangerous ignorance to basic facts?

I have sympathy for those who believed that voting to leave EU would be good for us. I have less sympathy for those who are willfully ignorant as all those promises and visions are obliterated before their eyes.

[nil_desperandum]

It doesn't matter what evidence they base it on.

Did I really read that?
I think you've just blown any argument you might have had right out of the water.
If there's a General Election will you be looking for evidence that Corbyn's manifesto is credible, affordable and realistic, (i.e. not a unicorn)?

[Lancasterclaret]

Its taken him two years, but 59 days before we leave, he's finally admitted that there is no evidence to back Brexit.

Thats why I declared. My work here is done.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Oh dear.

[Sproggy]

Just out of interest, how do you provide evidence of the impact of something that hasn't happened yet?

[dsr]

Did I really read that?
I think you've just blown any argument you might have had right out of the water.
If there's a General Election will you be looking for evidence that Corbyn's manifesto is credible, affordable and realistic, (i.e. not a unicorn)?

It really is hard to keep things simple enough sometimes.

What I am saying is:

1. I dispute Lancaster's assertion that people who vote Brexit don't care what happens to their children and grandchildren.
2. This is true whether they are the most thoroughly researched Brexiters in the world or whether they do it out of blind belief.

The comment "It doesn't matter what evidence they base it on" should NOT be taken as referring to every post I have ever made on the subject of Brexit. It refers specifically to Lancaster's odd belief that only Remainers care about future generations.

[dsr]

Its taken him two years, but 59 days before we leave, he's finally admitted that there is no evidence to back Brexit.

Thats why I declared. My work here is done.

If you believe that, then you are a fool. Happily, you don't believe that; you are making political points in the manner of a politician - ie. without regard for the truth.

[RingoMcCartney]

Just out of interest, how do you provide evidence of the impact of something that hasn't happened yet?

This is the bit where Remoaners say the sky will fall in.

When it doesn't happen , they pull the "get out of jail free" card and shrug their, well rumbled , shoulders and say,

" but they were only predictions"........

[Lancasterclaret]

Its a fair question mate

But that is where you look at the opinion pieces from experts and the like.

The vast majority warn about the dangers.

And as I've always been dead against this from an economic point of view from day 1, its been fairly obvious that this is worse for the UK.

And that is with a Deal.

Leaving without a deal is uncharted terrority, but there is bound to be issues over pretty much everything if you drop everything overnight.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm not the fool dsr.

I don't believe in stuff without evidence when I'm debating on a topic.

Sorry and all that.

[Lancasterclaret]

To vote for Brexit is to vote against Freedom of Movement.

You are denying your kids and grandkids the right to live and work in Europe*

*obviously still possible, but a lot harder and will cost more, so will stop millions from doing it

That is the basis of why you cannot claim you are voting for your kids.

It does not mean that you don't love them, doesn't mean that you don't want the best for them, but its inconsistent at best!

And I have to say this, it looks like a deflection attempt to get people to ignore what you did post!

[martin_p]

After some umming and ahhhing, Labour are officially backing Yvette Cooper’s anti-no deal amendment. Gives it a pretty good chance of winning a vote.

[Quickenthetempo]

After some umming and ahhhing, Labour are officially backing Yvette Cooper’s anti-no deal amendment. Gives it a pretty good chance of winning a vote.

That's the end of Labour then.

I think the UKIP candidates in Burnley will be popping corks at this news.

[aggi]

That's the end of Labour then.

I think the UKIP candidates in Burnley will be popping corks at this news.

I think you may be overestimating the number of people that want a no-deal. They're obviously very vocal but I'm not convinced that there are a huge number out there and those that are are Labour voters.

[summitclaret]

Right. So let's see how many tory remainers vote for the Cooper amendment. Some have signed it. I expect that the constituency chairs are telling the likes of Boles right now that they will be deselected if they do. This is because the Government is finally getting organised and to take away no deal just now will completely play into the EU's hands.

Hopefully there will be enough labour mps willing to defy their whip.

[summitclaret]

I think you may be overestimating the number of people that want a no-deal. They're obviously very vocal but I'm not convinced that there are a huge number out there and those that are are Labour voters.

Hardly anybody wants no deal. However most understand what negotiation is and that Labour will be responsible if we end up not leaving or being pushed into a Norway type deal.

Bercow has to allow brady first or he will be in big trouble.

[Lancasterclaret]

I genuinely do wonder where you are getting all this from.

[dsr]

I think you may be overestimating the number of people that want a no-deal. They're obviously very vocal but I'm not convinced that there are a huge number out there and those that are are Labour voters.

I think there may be quite a number who have stopped believing a word they are told by the politicians. There is such a lot of clear rubbish being put out that even the true predictions will be ignored. Here's today's apocalypse, about 1,200 extra deaths per year caused by the increase of the price of fruit and vegetables, estimated at £2.20 per week for a family of 4, causing people to eat less fruit and opt for a cheaper, less healthy alternative.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politic ... 51186.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If people get to a state of "they're all lying", which they are, then the "Britain is a big country, we can handle it" position might take a lot of support from the "trust us, we're politicians and we know better than you" position.

[quoonbeatz]

Found a video of Lancaster discussing brexit with dsr. For avoidance of doubt, dsr isn't the black guy.

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1 ... 45731?s=09" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[nil_desperandum]

That's the end of Labour then.
.

Why, because they are effectively adopting a policy agreed by party members, supported by the majority of their supporters nationally, and taking the stance that (according to all surveys and stats) the majority of their supporters voted for in 2016?
Ultimately there are dissenting voices, but it's virtually groundhog day, and Labour can only go with the majority view, and particularly with the view of its younger / future voters. If there are some Labour supporters who don't like it then they will have to vote for another party, but the FPTP system virtually ensures that they will have a Labour or Tory option. If they choose Tory one, then they will probably get what they voted for and deserve.

[summitclaret]

I genuinely do wonder where you are getting all this from.

Its called political nous.

[nil_desperandum]

Hardly anybody wants no deal. However most understand what negotiation is and that Labour will be responsible if we end up not leaving or being pushed into a Norway type deal.

Bercow has to allow brady first or he will be in big trouble.

Why does it matter which comes first?
The smart money at this moment in time is on both the Brady and Cooper amendments being passed.
Brady amendment sends may back to the EU, but it won't get approval from the EU, so then it would be Cooper that we fall back on.

[Lancasterclaret]

probably accurate!

[martin_p]

Right. So let's see how many tory remainers vote for the Cooper amendment. Some have signed it. I expect that the constituency chairs are telling the likes of Boles right now that they will be deselected if they do. This is because the Government is finally getting organised and to take away no deal just now will completely play into the EU's hands.

Hopefully there will be enough labour mps willing to defy their whip.

Getting organised? All it’s doing is kicking the can down the road again. The so called ‘Malthouse Compromise’ will never fly with the EU as it’s just ideas they’ve already rejected, an extension of transition, followed by jo deal which causes a hard border in Ireland.

[Quickenthetempo]

I think you may be overestimating the number of people that want a no-deal. They're obviously very vocal but I'm not convinced that there are a huge number out there and those that are are Labour voters.

Maybe, but the average man doesn't know enough about deals etc.. but sees the EU as the enemy for taking the hardline against us.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Found a video of Lancaster discussing brexit with dsr. For avoidance of doubt, dsr isn't the black guy.

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1 ... 45731?s=09" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That was on yesterday. I reckon it’s Ringo.

[dsr]

Why does it matter which comes first?
The smart money at this moment in time is on both the Brady and Cooper amendments being passed.
Brady amendment sends may back to the EU, but it won't get approval from the EU, so then it would be Cooper that we fall back on.

It's certainly true that if the UK goes back to the EU with a "Ditch the hard border, or we will have to give you everything you want", it's not a good negotiating position.

[Lancasterclaret]

Back to the "you need to know more about this to make this kind of decision" then aren't we?

[martin_p]

It's certainly true that if the UK goes back to the EU with a "Ditch the hard border, or we will have to give you everything you want", it's not a good negotiating position.

It has ditched the hard border, it’s what the backstop is there to avoid!

Oh, and the biggest disadvantage we have in the negotiations from day one is that we want to leave but the EU wants us to stay. That’s why it’s the U.K. that will have to make the compromises if it wants a deal.

[quoonbeatz]

That was on yesterday. I reckon it’s Ringo.

Ah, the price I pay for only dipping in now and again.

You're probably right, it is ringo. And his other login, dsr.

[summitclaret]

Why does it matter which comes first?
The smart money at this moment in time is on both the Brady and Cooper amendments being passed.
Brady amendment sends may back to the EU, but it won't get approval from the EU, so then it would be Cooper that we fall back on.

You are spot on if both pass because the EU would have no incentive to do anything. That's why on brady should be voted on today

[quoonbeatz]

The Brady one should be laughed out of town.

[martin_p]

The Brady one should be laughed out of town.

It should, but it takes the pressure off May for another couple of weeks, hence her support.

[RingoMcCartney]

Bercow has had some influence but he's come nowhere near the influence that you claimed. The ERG have done more to force a second referendum than he has. (I see you're no longer claiming that you didn't say he could force a second referendum).

"Bercow has had some influence. "

Taken from the BBC-

The Speaker, made his decision, against the advice of the Commons Clerk, Sir David Natzler.

For centuries, business of the House motions only amendable by ministers of the Crown, but this drove a coach and horses through accepted normal practice, and will have huge implications for the course of Brexit.

The decisions will now have to come much faster, and potentially, those plotting an ALTERNATIVE COURSE to the PM's would have more space in which to work.

And it may also set a sweeping precedent allowing MPs far more grip over their debates, on Brexit and pretty much anything else.

If such a precedent can be made to stick, it would be a huge blow against any government's accustomed control over the business of the Commons..

Oh and by the way I'm not shying away from anything I've said.

Mr Bercow is paying a "pivotal" role as I predicted back in November and he's only there to, "Stop Brexit " as Margaret Beckett and Emily Thornbury admitted. It's not need saying he's part of a political class that wants to stop Brexit it the political class itself. He can unilaterally make decisions (even against the advice of senior civil servants AGAIN!!!!) that can force a 2nd referendum on the British people.

You're shying away from admitting I was right , when I predicted his role has, is and will be "pivotal"

[nil_desperandum]

You are spot on if both pass because the EU would have no incentive to do anything. That's why on brady should be voted on today

They'll most likely both be voted on and passed today.
My question was: why does it matter which vote takes place first?, since obviously the Brady amendment would send May back to the EU to fail before the Cooper amendment kicked in.

[Lancasterclaret]

Seven selected, the more important seven.

Inc Cooper and this one that is just wasting everyones time.

[martin_p]

Seven amendments selected for debate, including Cooper and Brady. Brady’s up last.

[aggi]

Hardly anybody wants no deal. However most understand what negotiation is and that Labour will be responsible if we end up not leaving or being pushed into a Norway type deal.

Bercow has to allow brady first or he will be in big trouble.

If barely anyone wants it and we haven't prepared for it then it isn't much of a stick in the negotiation.

You talk about being pushed into a Norway type deal, it was quite a popular option pre-Brexit
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... l-reveals/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[aggi]

I think there may be quite a number who have stopped believing a word they are told by the politicians. There is such a lot of clear rubbish being put out that even the true predictions will be ignored. Here's today's apocalypse, about 1,200 extra deaths per year caused by the increase of the price of fruit and vegetables, estimated at £2.20 per week for a family of 4, causing people to eat less fruit and opt for a cheaper, less healthy alternative.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politic ... 51186.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If people get to a state of "they're all lying", which they are, then the "Britain is a big country, we can handle it" position might take a lot of support from the "trust us, we're politicians and we know better than you" position.

The methodology seems sound but I haven't looked at it in detail, which bit are you disagreeing with? Tariffs and other costs increasing the prices, people eating less fruit and veg because it's more expensive or the healh implications of that?

You're obviously at the vocal end I referred to and entrenched in leave and all the bad news about WTO is just "project fear", I'm just not convinced that so many people share your view.

[aggi]

Maybe, but the average man doesn't know enough about deals etc.. but sees the EU as the enemy for taking the hardline against us.

Maybe, although if that is the case it illustrates what a bad idea the referendum was in the first place.

[aggi]

"Bercow has had some influence. "

Taken from the BBC-

The Speaker, made his decision, against the advice of the Commons Clerk, Sir David Natzler.

For centuries, business of the House motions only amendable by ministers of the Crown, but this drove a coach and horses through accepted normal practice, and will have huge implications for the course of Brexit.

The decisions will now have to come much faster, and potentially, those plotting an ALTERNATIVE COURSE to the PM's would have more space in which to work.

And it may also set a sweeping precedent allowing MPs far more grip over their debates, on Brexit and pretty much anything else.

If such a precedent can be made to stick, it would be a huge blow against any government's accustomed control over the business of the Commons..

Oh and by the way I'm not shying away from anything I've said.

Mr Bercow is paying a "pivotal" role as I predicted back in November and he's only there to, "Stop Brexit " as Margaret Beckett and Emily Thornbury admitted. It's not need saying he's part of a political class that wants to stop Brexit it the political class itself. He can unilaterally make decisions (even against the advice of senior civil servants AGAIN!!!!) that can force a 2nd referendum on the British people.

You're shying away from admitting I was right , when I predicted his role has, is and will be "pivotal"

Yes, some influence in the mechanics. Those who may be forcing a second referendum are the MPs, not Bercow.

If a majority of MPs want to force a second referendum then it will happen with or without his influence. If a majority don't then it won't happen, again, with or without his influence. There is no way that Bercow can unilaterally make decisions that can force a second referendum on the British people.

Bercow plus ~ 315 other MPs is the reality. That's not Bercow unilaterally making a decision, however much you repeatedly claim it.

[Stayingup]

Any sensible neutral intelligent person would obviously favour Coopers amendment over the Brady bunch so if Bercow continues to act in the truly courageous manor he has done throughout this Brexit fiasco I can't see the Brady bunch getting a look-in and quite rightly so

Haha what nonesense. To be expected from the like of you.

[RingoMcCartney]

Yes, some influence in the mechanics. Those who may be forcing a second referendum are the MPs, not Bercow.

If a majority of MPs want to force a second referendum then it will happen with or without his influence. If a majority don't then it won't happen, again, with or without his influence. There is no way that Bercow can unilaterally make decisions that can force a second referendum on the British people.

Bercow plus ~ 315 other MPs is the reality. That's not Bercow unilaterally making a decision, however much you repeatedly claim it.

Bercow UNILATERALLY decided to go against the advice of the clerks. He's repeatedly refused to publish that advice he was given as he drove a coach and horses through hundreds of years of parliamentary procedural protocol and precedent , which will have huge implications for the course of Brexit.

It's not as if he didnt know what Dominic Grieve and his anti democratic co-conspirators want take parliament is it aggi?

And if he didn't, he would have plenty of opportunity to have it spelled out, when the 2 of these snakes met at Bercows grace and favour mansion, the morning of the the pivotal , unilateral , precedent busting decision.

No matter how many times you want to avoid admitting aggi, he's been kept in place in order to "Stop Brexit " And his role has been pivotal.

Just as I predicted back in November.

[Lancasterclaret]

The MPs will vote to stop or accept Brexit.

Thats our parliamentary sovereignty that I thought this entire **** show was about.

[Buxtonclaret]

Screenshot_2019-01-29-14-22-37-062.jpeg (382.81 KiB) Viewed 1934 times

Ah, at last!
Common Sense in the Commons.
And even Groundhog Day finished eventually, so May's speech won't last long.
Note how they intend to get through everything in time to be free to see to the important business of the day, ie Burnley taking three points off Manure.