How many points will we need to be safe?

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Spijed
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How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:27 pm

I think another 14 to finish on 37 will be just enough.

Interesting that a few weeks ago it looked that even 30 might be enough with ourselves and a few others really struggling, but it's pretty much gone back up to normal levels.

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jurek
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby jurek » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:40 pm

There's still 14 game to go and 42 points to play for and anything could happen.
Huddersfield are down and doubt that either Cardiff or Fulham will get much more than the equivalent of 5 more wins
so tend to agree that another 14 points for us should see us safe.
4 wins and a couple of draws should do it.
A couple of injuries to key players might derail us but if we can keep up the spirit
and performances (as of last 5 games) then we should be playing in the premiership again next season.

Let's be honest after the Everton game last month and given our performances and results before Xmas
we were one of the favourites to go down.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby FCBurnley » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:42 pm

Brighton dropping like a stone. A point a game will be fine
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby mybloodisclaret » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:44 pm

I agree with op 37 required. Another 14 should do it. I also think that we should be aiming for more though given our recent performances and point uptake.

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Steve1956
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Steve1956 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:46 pm

4wins and 2 draws sounds so easy,it won't be,but Heaton coming back has turned our season around,funny old game is football.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby jdrobbo » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:49 pm

35 max

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:50 pm

4 more wins imo and I didn't think that I'd be saying that 5 weeks ago.

I think the current bottom 3 will remain that way at seasons end

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby SGr » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:51 pm

38 always the magic number for me but it won’t take that many this year. 33-35 I would say will be sufficient

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Steve1956 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:52 pm

That tough run in isn't looking so tough anymore.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby mdd2 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:10 am

One more than the team in 18th position after 38 games. We are only 4 points clear off the drop zone but that is one more than before tonight. Saturdays game is HUGE

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:13 am

On Saturday:
Palace v Fulham
Cardiff v Bournemouth

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby cricketfieldclarets » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:14 am

Steve1956 wrote:That tough run in isn't looking so tough anymore.

Oh it is

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby RVclaret » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:15 am

Spijed wrote:On Saturday:
Palace v Fulham
Cardiff v Bournemouth

Also tomorrow Saints v Palace

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:30 am

Yeah, win on saturday and there is a pretty big gap.

One of those weird ones were you are really happy with our current performances, but slightly gutted we've only two points to show for it.
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby ZizkovClaret » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:39 am

Steve1956 wrote:That tough run in isn't looking so tough anymore.


Can i have what you're having? It still gives me relegation fear

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:02 am

Cardiff have to play Liverpool and Man United during the same period.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby ElectroClaret » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:40 am

37 will p1ss it.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Rick_Muller » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:45 am

After the last 2 games - 4 more than it should be...
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby PWBFC » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:52 am

Also think that 14 points should see us fine.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby box_of_frogs » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:53 am

38 for me, but hopefully less.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby houseboy » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:55 am

Easy answer - nobody knows. Still best to aim for 40 because that is considered the safety mark.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby houseboy » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:57 am

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote:4 more wins imo and I didn't think that I'd be saying that 5 weeks ago.

I think the current bottom 3 will remain that way at seasons end

I think Fulham will pull out of it, they have too many good players.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:04 am

Fulham last four:
Bournemouth A
Cardiff H
Wolves A
Newcastle H

Newcastle last four:
Southampton H
Brighton A
Liverpool H
Fulham A

Southampton last four:
Newcastle A
Bournemouth H
West Ham A
Huddersfield H

Palace last four:
Arsenal A
Everton H
Cardiff A
Bournemouth H

Cardiff last four:
Liverpool H
Fulham A
Palace H
Man U A

Brighton last four:
Wolves A
Newcastle H
Arsenal A
Man City H

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:06 am

houseboy wrote:I think Fulham will pull out of it, they have too many good players.


Trouble is, they simply can't keep a clean sheet. The may have good attacking players but they have to constantly score 2-3 goals every match.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby claptrappers_union » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:00 am

If we get 3 points against Southampton, I think we'll be OK, I think we're better than Brighton and they eventually will get sucked into the mix.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:04 am

Jeez, we have definately got the worst run in.

Fulham could get easily get 12 points there with that last four.

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tiger76
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby tiger76 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:10 am

FCBurnley wrote:Brighton dropping like a stone. A point a game will be fine


And Palace,if we get to 37 points Cardiff would have to win 6 games to equal that,difficult to see them doing that,they are fighting hard but lack quality.

Fulham player's must have been gutted last night,a great fightback and then they see our result and Newcastle's,must be demoralising for them.

4 point gap to the bottom 3 the first time this season we have clear daylight,need to follow up 2 decent away draws with a big 3 points on Saturday.

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Tinribs
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Tinribs » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:13 am

Fulham have picked up 2 points away all season
They have 7 home games left and they face
Man Utd
Chelsea
Liverpool
Everton
City
Cardiff
Newcastle
That’s tough

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby FactualFrank » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:14 am

Well we're 1 point under averaging a point per game, which at the moment suggests 38 won't be needed. We're currently on 23 points, so reckon 12 more points should just about do it.

4 wins from our remaining 14 games (or 3 wins and 3 draws), will be very close to being enough.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Tinribs » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:23 am

Huddersfield are down

Fulham have 17 from 24 can’t honestly see them getting 17 from 14 especially as 15 of those points have come at home and they have top 4 to play at home yet

Cardiff 19 from 24 same as above can’t really expect them to bag same amount in 10 games less

4 wins and we are Safe especially if one is against Cardiff at home

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:27 am

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby JohnMac » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:01 pm

I'd settle for another 18 points but realistically think 14 might be on the money.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby houseboy » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm

Spijed wrote:Trouble is, they simply can't keep a clean sheet. The may have good attacking players but they have to constantly score 2-3 goals every match.

Fair point. I still think they look a decent side though whenever I've seen them and maybe if they pick up in defence who knows. Problem is I think they are trying to play football in the PL and, as we well know, unless you have top class right through you can't do that, at least not always. I have been one of our critics for unadventurous football but I realise that if you ain't got the players you have to play to strength.

I tell you what though, our defence, at its best, and Fulhams attacking flair would make a hell of a team I reckon.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:32 pm

With 14 games remaining, if you look back at the last 14 matches the form guide is:

Fulham 12 points.
Cardiff 14 points.
Burnley 15 points.

Looking good.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Steve1956 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:38 pm

ZizkovClaret wrote:Can i have what you're having? It still gives me relegation fear

The top six will be on their holibobs by then chill man

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:29 pm

At this stage - 25 matches gone in the last five seasons and the total after 38 matches:

18/19 - 22 pts. 18th finished on ???
17/18 - 23 pts. 18th finished on 33 pts
16/17 - 20 pts. 18th finished on 34 pts
15/16 - 23 pts. 18th finished on 37 pts
14/15 - 22 pts. 18th finished on 35 pts

So it looks likely to be around 36/37 for safety.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Claretforever » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:34 pm

Spijed wrote:At this stage - 25 matches gone in the last five seasons and the total after 38 matches:

18/19 - 22 pts. 18th finished on ???
17/18 - 23 pts. 18th finished on 33 pts
16/17 - 20 pts. 18th finished on 34 pts
15/16 - 23 pts. 18th finished on 37 pts
14/15 - 22 pts. 18th finished on 35 pts

So it looks likely to be around 36/37 for safety.


36 will be fine. We need 12 points from 10 games. The last four are ridiculous. If we can pick up 3 wins then that will donus. We’ll draw somewhere.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Rick_Muller » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:36 pm

I’m feeling aggrieved that we’re now 6 short of where we should be after the last 3 games - genuinely feel robbed. Had we been sat in 13th on 30 points today we’d be laughing.
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:39 pm

Claretforever wrote:36 will be fine. We need 12 points from 10 games. The last four are ridiculous. If we can pick up 3 wins then that will donus. We’ll draw somewhere.


At this moment in time Everton away is a very winnable game, with the way they are playing. And Cardiff have Liverpool & Man U. in their last four as well.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Dark Cloud » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:50 pm

I'd like to see us make 38, so another 14 needed. We'll need to play a bit better than today though. On paper we've enough winnable games, besides the extremely tough ones where we won't expect owt, but if Cardiff keep refusing to roll over and give up it could all be very, very tight.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:58 pm

This was the table after the Everton game:
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby ElectroClaret » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:12 pm

Spijed wrote:At this moment in time Everton away is a very winnable game, with the way they are playing. And Cardiff have Liverpool & Man U. in their last four as well.


Liverpool might be on the beach by then.
Let's hope not.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Spijed » Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:22 pm

ElectroClaret wrote:Liverpool might be on the beach by then.
Let's hope not.


Same could be said for our games -

Chelsea (who knows what's going to happen with the manager).
Man City (If they are still in with a chance of the title then Liverpool will have to beat Cardiff).
Everton - depends if Silva is in charge.
Arsenal - Surely they won't get another penalty.

As for Cardiff. They have to go to Old Trafford on the last day. I wonder if their fans will regret the way they treated OGS during his time there as I suspect he doesn't have fond memories and will want to wipe the floor with them.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Vegas Claret » Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:05 am

always weird results towards the end of the season, it will go right to the end I fear

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Woodleyclaret » Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:42 am

7 wins starting at the Amex .Newcastle and Spuds at home 21 points gives us 44 Do Arsenal at home as well would be the icing on the cake. Beat Liverpool at Anfield to really cap off a fine second half to the season.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Hibsclaret » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:20 am

It’s one thing suggesting 7 wins. However, when you factor in the referee this looks like an impossible task.

We most likely would have won the last 3 games and drew them all.

We are in trouble because of nothing other than poor refereeing given we should have 30 points and should be almost safe. It is not inconceivable that we get relegated by officials this season.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby Joe14 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:32 am

Steve1956 wrote:4wins and 2 draws sounds so easy,it won't be,but Heaton coming back has turned our season around,funny old game is football.


If we had dropped Hart earlier we would be close to safety now!!

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby theroyaldyche » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:54 am

Everton are dropping like a stone. Ecpect them to be involved

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby tiger76 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:34 am

theroyaldyche wrote:Everton are dropping like a stone. Ecpect them to be involved


Doubt Everton will get dragged that far down,they already have 33 points,a couple of wins at most will suffice.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Postby IndigoLake » Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:50 am

I don't see us finishing below Cardiff. Think we'll be fine.


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