How many points will we need to be safe?

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:58 pm

Remaining fixtures
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Steve1956
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Steve1956 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:04 pm

Just had a look at remaining fixtures I think 12 points is the maximum we will get.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:06 pm

Steve1956 wrote:Just had a look at remaining fixtures I think 12 points is the maximum we will get.
Which games?

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by tiger76 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:38 pm

Steve1956 wrote:Just had a look at remaining fixtures I think 12 points is the maximum we will get.
If 3 of those is beating Cardiff at home 12 might just be enough,be a fingernail job though,Southampton stayed up last year by taking 11 points out of a possible 18 from the 3 relegated sides shows the difference these games can make.

So far we've amassed 10 points from our 5 games against the current bottom 3,including 3 of our 6 wins,the only blip was our early season reverse at Fulham during the European adventure,we do need to turn some of these draws into wins though.

I got us gaining 11 but i suspect we'll pick results up from unexpected games ala Old Trafford.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Steve1956 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:56 pm

FactualFrank wrote:Which games?
Brighton 1
Newcastle 1
Palace 3
Leicester 1
Cardiff 3
Arsenal3
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:03 pm

Ok, one thing I'll predict: We don't get 3 points at home to Cardiff. However, we'll pick up points in the games nobody gives us any chance in.

Forget point counting. As a Burnley fan you should know by now, we often pick up points where nobody gives us a chance.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by ElectroClaret » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:04 pm

Don't particularly disagree with those, but I can see us picking up something against Wolves at home as well.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by agreenwood » Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:14 pm

We’re going to need to win a few games we’re underdogs in.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:22 pm

[quote="ElectroClaret"]Don't particularly disagree with those, but I can see us picking up something against Wolves at home as well.[/quote

You see better than me. Woles are flying.

It is impossible to predict results or we'd all be pool millionaires by now.

I think we'll be ok but I'll be a lot happier when i KNOW we are

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Longsidebogs » Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:26 pm

Think we’ll get more than 12.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:51 pm

If we can go to places such as Watford and outplay them there is no reason why we can't get points at Bournemouth, Everton, Brighton, Newcastle or even Chelsea (If they are still squabbling with the manager).

Wolves at home is an interesting one. They play well against open, passing teams, but less so against the bottom sides, losing to Cardiff & Huddersfield and only getting a point against Fulham.

That leaves Palace & Leicester of the beatable teams.
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:54 pm

Spijed wrote:If we can go to places such as Watford and outplay them there is no reason why we can't get points at Bournemouth, Everton, Brighton, Newcastle or even Chelsea (If they are still squabbling with the manager).

Wolves at home is an interesting one. They play well against open, passing teams, but less so against the bottom sides, losing to Cardiff & Huddersfield and only getting a point against Fulham.

That leaves Palace & Leicester of the beatable teams.
I'm not worried against any team other than Man City. Every other team we can defend, press and score goals against. Wolves have bought their position, so you just have to accept they are there because of money. But we can draw/beat the rest.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Dark Cloud » Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:58 pm

Wolves are flying as said, but every so often they "throw one in" and we can always hope it's against us if we really turn up. Predicting 3 against Arsenal on the final day is stretching it somewhat imo. We can't beat them when we're having a great season, never mind up against it!
I do agree we'll get some unexpected points from someplace (like we did at Old Trafford), but then again all lowly teams do that once in a while (like Newcastle v City) so that will simply even itself out I'd suggest.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:05 pm

Brighton could easily go if they aren't careful either.

Only five points above the drop zone with thirteen to play.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Dark Cloud » Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:11 pm

Which makes next week's game ANOTHER huge match for both teams.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by tiger76 » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:34 pm

Spijed wrote:Brighton could easily go if they aren't careful either.

Only five points above the drop zone with thirteen to play.
They could a lack of goals is their undoing,just read the report from their game at home to Watford yesterday,and they dominated but couldn't find the killer touch,we can definitely get a result next week.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by jurek » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:46 pm

Also think next weeks' game is HUGE!
Even more so with Southampton playing Cardiff.

I think we all know that if we lose and Cardiff beat Southampton
then we're back in the bottom three.

But the way the fixtures are panning out then it could go down to the wire
depending on how we fare against Cardiff at home and even then it could be close.
We play Arsenal at home and Cardiff are away to Man. United on the last day.

And we may still need a result or at least a point to stay up.

Last minute winner from Crouch would be a fitting ending to the season
especially if it keeps us up.

Long way to go and those games against Brighton, Newcastle and Cardiff
are looking extremely important.
Can't afford to lose any of them really and ideally pick up at least 5 points if not more.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Dark Cloud » Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:01 pm

The away games against Brighton and Newcastle are more "mustn't lose" whereas the home games against Cardiff, Leicester and Palace become "must win. If we then get a couple of points from Bournemouth, Wolves and maybe Everton, we'll probably be ok. I accept Palace and Leicester are more than decent sides and winning those games won't be easy, but we've put ourselves in a position unfortunately where we have to target wins from games against these tougher teams.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Spijed » Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:12 am

We've got fifteen points out of the last thirteen matches, which included four matches against the top six.

We've got to play five out of the top six in the last thirteen games. Not much different.

In our recent run we've played West Ham, Watford & Man U and dealt with them very easily, especially West Ham and Watford.

All looking very good.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by bumba » Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:09 am

Brighton's next 6 league games are all against teams in the bottom half, Leicester are 11th the other 5 they play are the bottom 5 they need to take the points to survive from those or they really are going to be dragged in.
Cardiff have an horrendous run from end of March with only Fulham away and Palace at home that isn't against top 6 teams.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Cubanclaret » Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:10 am

Those fixtures suggest to me that it’s between us and Cardiff

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by JohnMac » Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:38 am

Said before the season started I would take 17th but didn't want to go into the last 4 games needing points to secure it.

Nothing has changed that opinion but I don't think it will be the case and sadly I can forsee much drama against Everton and Arsenal.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by ElectroClaret » Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:54 am

I just hope to God we don't pick up an injury/injuries in key or poorly backed-up positions.
Or even get suspensions for winnable games. We're pretty threadbare.

Then the scenario from our viewpoint may change.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Quickenthetempo » Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:58 am

Listening to Stuart Pearce yesterday on Sky sports news and he quoted about how many goals you score is roughly how many points you get.

I was quite surprised just how accurate he is.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by ElectroClaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:22 pm

What now, do we reckon?

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by jedi_master » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:26 pm

Three wins and a draw and we can get the deckchairs out lads.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Reecey1987 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:29 pm

jedi_master wrote:Three wins and a draw and we can get the deckchairs out lads.
The cardiff game is massive take 3 points against them and a point away at newcastle

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Spijed » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:31 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Listening to Stuart Pearce yesterday on Sky sports news and he quoted about how many goals you score is roughly how many points you get.

I was quite surprised just how accurate he is.
Remarkably, last season we only scored 36 goals but got 54 points.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Steve1956 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:41 pm

Things change so quickly,three wins and a draw and everything is Hunky Dory.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Steve1956 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:43 pm

Cardiff have some tough games can only see them getting 6 or 7 more points

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Reecey1987 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:46 pm

Steve1956 wrote:Cardiff have some tough games can only see them getting 6 or 7 more points
Cardiff can beat anybody on there own ground it will be closer than you think . Also they look like there up for the fight with everything thats happend lately

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Steve1956 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:49 pm

Reecey1987 wrote:Cardiff can beat anybody on there own ground it will be closer than you think . Also they look like there up for the fight with everything thats happend lately
When it dies down I think their fight will dissapear and they will go down with a whimper....time will tell

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by bodge » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:55 pm

It will be interesting how it pans out psychologically.

Our strong jaw is well renowned with good reason.

Southampton are away at the Emirates next up and their main threat has a hamstring injury.

Our other south coast friends now find themselves well and truly in the mix.

Palace and Newcastle won't be involved in my view but if it comes down to mental strength we're well equipped to win the battle.
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Chester Perry » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:56 pm

Steve1956 wrote:When it dies down I think their fight will dissapear and they will go down with a whimper....time will tell
something tells me that will be next season not this - they have the bit between their teeth and good luck to them - though not at our expense

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Spijed » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:06 pm

bodge wrote:Palace and Newcastle won't be involved in my view but if it comes down to mental strength we're well equipped to win the battle.
As they both haven't got any more points than us to date suggests that neither team are capable of improving their position any more than we are.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by jdrobbo » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:08 pm

Sticking with 35

8 more points.

Three wins for definite!

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Rileybobs » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:10 pm

It’s been a really bad day for Southampton. I bet their fans are getting edgy after today’s calamitous results.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by ElectroClaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:10 pm

Ten points for me. Cardiff keep pushing the envelope.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by martin_p » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:14 pm

Four more wins, 39 points. There’s really only one place left but the teams above the bottom two are picking up enough points to push the survival target up.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by willsclarets » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:15 pm

Given we're unbeaten in 7 and only 3 points clear, I think whoever finishes 18th is going to be a tad unlucky given previous point totals that have ensured safety. I can see all the bottom teams (aside from Huddersfield and Fulham) picking up points, and the old "40 points" being re-established for this season. It's going right to the wire but we've clearly got the metal for a fight. Huge games against Cardiff and Newcastle.
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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Steve1956 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:22 pm

willsclarets wrote:Given we're unbeaten in 7 and only 3 points clear, I think whoever finishes 18th is going to be a tad unlucky given previous point totals that have ensured safety. I can see all the bottom teams (aside from Huddersfield and Fulham) picking up points, and the old "40 points" being re-established for this season. It's going right to the wire but we've clearly got the metal for a fight. Huge games against Cardiff and Newcastle.
I can see us going to Newcastle and winning,which would almost certainly see us safe

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by ElectroClaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:23 pm

The game against Cardiff will be the absolute epitome of the fabled "six pointer".

Beat em, and we're pretty much sorted, cos that will do enormous damage to them.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Spijed » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:28 pm

willsclarets wrote:Given we're unbeaten in 7 and only 3 points clear, I think whoever finishes 18th is going to be a tad unlucky given previous point totals that have ensured safety. I can see all the bottom teams (aside from Huddersfield and Fulham) picking up points, and the old "40 points" being re-established for this season. It's going right to the wire but we've clearly got the metal for a fight. Huge games against Cardiff and Newcastle.
You'd be surprised as not everyone will keep winning with so many six-pointers left

Last season after 26 matches the team in 18th had 24 points, but come the end of the season 34 would have kept you up.

I suspect the odds on requiring 40 points to survive would astronomical in mathematical terms.

For example, can anyone really see Brighton getting another 13 points from 12 matches to get to 40 when they've just got one win in their last eleven?

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Rick_Muller » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:45 pm

F#ck this “points for safety” lark - win ‘em all - back in Europe lads...

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by martin_p » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:49 pm

Spijed wrote: For example, can anyone really see Brighton getting another 13 points from 12 matches to get to 40 when they've just got one win in their last eleven?
No more than I could see us getting 15 points from seven games when we’d only got 12 from the previous 19.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Spijed » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:01 pm

martin_p wrote:No more than I could see us getting 15 points from seven games when we’d only got 12 from the previous 19.
A couple of things. On that point it looks like Brighton don't have the option of 'going back' to something they know worked previously.

Secondly, even if Brighton do recover it also requires every one of the other six teams to continue to play well - if the target of 40 points is to be required.

In the last five years 37 pts has been the highest total required (15/16 season) and after 26 matches the team in 18th was on 24 pts, the same as now.

As each season ebbs and flows there will still be clubs at the bottom that will inevitably have another dip in form.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by tiger76 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:37 am

Southampton looked like climbing away from danger a couple of weeks ago,they have collected 2 points out 9 against Palace,the Clarets and Cardiff,as even their own manager admitted they have "no chance of staying in the league" performing as they did against Cardiff,during those games 3 points have been thrown away by the Saints,the crazy handball at the turf,and yesterday after levelling in stoppage time,conceding at the death to gift Cardiff all 3 points.

There will be plenty of twists and turns yet but all we can do is churn out the results,the bottom 2 look gone so it's one from 6,a lot of pressure on the Geordies now after Burnley and Cardiff notching away wins,Brighton are horrendously out of form and reliant on Murray for goals,if they don't pick points up in their next few games Leicester,Hudds and Palace the writing could be on the wall for them.

37-38 should be enough as the likes of Newcastle and Southampton would have to win 4/5 games to attain that total.

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by Vegas Claret » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:01 am

Cardiff are the danger, they were excellent in the last 3 games and are well up for it. We just need to dig deep and carry on picking up results because they are more than capable of doing the same

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by HunterST_BFC » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:19 am

36 might be enough... probably this year.

Sooner we get another 9 the better.
Tail end run in may not see many points.

Right now (Jan 9th) when Westwood went down - Gibson was our best choice from the bench... Might have done a job but you have to say our midfield and wide options are stretched and we are hoping for no injury issues...
Crossed fingers etc as per usual. :roll:

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Re: How many points will we need to be safe?

Post by AndyClaret » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:07 am

We are still the 3rd favourites for relegation in the betting odds which is strange, we are on the same points as Palace and Brighton who are 20/1 and 9/1 to go down, we are 7/2.

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