How many points will we need to be safe?

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:22 am

AndyClaret wrote:We are still the 3rd favourites for relegation in the betting odds which is strange, we are on the same points as Palace and Brighton who are 20/1 and 9/1 to go down, we are 7/2.

We’re 4th favourites for relegation. Same as before yesterday’s football started. Our odds have doubled though.

You’re right though that the odds on the likes of Brighton and Soton to go down are ludicrously long.

Hibsclaret · Post by **Hibsclaret** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:23 am

Brighton are a great bet at 9/1. Will be having some of that...

Check the form guide and the away form. Ridiculous odds as are ours

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:27 am

I can't believe how long the odds are against Southampton and particularly Newcastle.

Hibsclaret · Post by **Hibsclaret** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:30 am

The thing about the odds to bear in mind is that there is essentially 1 place up for grabs. Given how close everything is the 9/1s upwards are the best bets. Cardiff are now a very bad price given their recent form

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:44 am

I think both Fulham and Huddersfield may queer the pitch for some in the bottom half as the dying teams often have a last minute revival but too late to save them. Pleased we have played our 4 games against them.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:03 am

mdd2 wrote:I think both Fulham and Huddersfield may queer the pitch for some in the bottom half as the dying teams often have a last minute revival but too late to save them. Pleased we have played our 4 games against them.

Fulham still have Southampton(a) Cardiff (H) and on the last day Newcastle (H),Huddersfield have Newcastle (a) Brighton (a) Palace (a) and on the final day Southampton (a),the Terriers might be down but they could do us a favour or two,just by law of averages they have to win sooner or later don't they.

jdrobbo · Post by **jdrobbo** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:25 am

There’s far too much water to go under the bridge between now and the Cardiff game. The only thing that matters right now is the Spurs game.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:44 am

Absolutely. One game at a time.

jurek · Post by **jurek** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:20 pm

Anything can still happen as many of the teams in the bottom six or seven
still have to play each other so there may still be a few unexpected results.

Having said that I predicted in an earlier post (before yesterday's win at Brighton)
that we would need another 14 points to take us up to 38.

Still think that may be enough so it's now 11 points from the remaining 12 games.

Much depends on whether we can continue present form and remain relatively injury free.
Think the next six fixtures (4 at home) will go along way to deciding whether we can
pull sufficiently clear before the last six which include Cardiff at home.

Six or seven points (ideally one or two more) should put us in a strong position
coming into the last 6 games irrespective what some of the other teams do.

Longside4evr · Post by **Longside4evr** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:53 pm

Forget the safety mark we need to be aiming higher now, we have forged together a good balance and knitted that self belief back we could push for 10th or above.
Dont want to sound greedy but we are capable now and that run of games at the end of season no longer feels as daunting anymore.
At the moment the players are seeing every game as winner able, our fans have stuck with it and everyone together are helping to pull out of it and this only helps fashion good things UTC.

steve1264b · Post by **steve1264b** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:29 pm

After 26 games last season Stoke, Swansea and Huddersfield had 24 points. Stoke and Swansea (second and third from the bottom) ended on 33 points Huddersfield 37.

The year before Palace and Boro had 22 points, Swansea 24. Boro finished on 28 points (2nd from bottom, 3rd were Hull 34) while Palace and Swansea reached 41.

IN 15/16 Sunderland had 23 while Newcastle and Norwich had 24. Norwich reached 34. Newcastle 37 (3rd from bottom) Sunderland 39.

Newcastles goal difference was -21. Very similar to us.

There would have to be some remarkable results to go down on 38 points, 35 would have seen us safe in two out of the last 3 seasons.

Given that Huddersfield and Fulham are out of it, history would suggest that one of the teams on 27 to 24 points will only get around 10 points.

Our goal difference is almost like being deducted a point so we will need 38 points to be certain, probably a little less.

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:32 pm

steve1264b wrote:After 26 games last season Stoke, Swansea and Huddersfield had 24 points. Stoke and Swansea (second and third from the bottom) ended on 33 points Huddersfield 37.

The year before Palace and Boro had 22 points, Swansea 24. Boro finished on 28 points (2nd from bottom, 3rd were Hull 34) while Palace and Swansea reached 41.

IN 15/16 Sunderland had 23 while Newcastle and Norwich had 24. Norwich reached 34. Newcastle 37 (3rd from bottom) Sunderland 39.

Newcastles goal difference was -21. Very similar to us.

There would have to be some remarkable results to go down on 38 points, 35 would have seen us safe in two out of the last 3 seasons.

Given that Huddersfield and Fulham are out of it, history would suggest that one of the teams on 27 to 24 points will only get around 10 points.

Our goal difference is almost like being deducted a point so we will need 38 points to be certain, probably a little less.

Not sure about your GD point. We are 5 better off than Cardiff and only 2 worse than Soton.

steve1264b · Post by **steve1264b** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:38 pm

I was looking at the Newcastle relegation on 37 with a -21. If we get 3 wins and a draw we finish on 37 points which could be tight.I was looking at the other clubs on 27 points, we can't just match them.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:44 pm

Our problem is that we can't afford any blips or "off days" now because we had more than our share before the New Year. Of course we expect nothing from Chelsea, City, Liverpool and Arsenal, but we have to be 100% at it when we play the rest and don't give them any freebies, otherwise we might struggle for the 10/11 points which might just see us ok. And keeping our current form going without hiccup all the way to the end of the season might be a tall order, especially if we get injuries or suspensions.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:49 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:Our problem is that we can't afford any blips or "off days" now because we had more than our share before the New Year.

And the same goes for any other side as well. If any of the six others fighting for the last spot get - say - 1 pt out of their next four matches it will be hard for them to recover as well.

We are now on an equal footing with everyone else so as long as we match what the others do we will be ok.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:55 pm

And in fairness our star, a bit like Cardiff's, is rising when some others is falling. (Soton and Brighton) We need Newcastle to revert to type and lose at Wolves tomorrow, because next up they've Udders at home and even I expect them to win that.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:10 pm

I don't like Cardiff or Colin, and the squad is nowhere near good enough, but you have to admire the spirit they show, and the passion from the players. Reminds me a lot of us.
They could still go down, but every year one team that's been down there all season gets out of it, and one team that's never been down there drop in. I hope it's Brighton for their plastic fans, but so long as it's not us...

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:23 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:I don't like Cardiff or Colin, and the squad is nowhere near good enough, but you have to admire the spirit they show, and the passion from the players. Reminds me a lot of us.
They could still go down, but every year one team that's been down there all season gets out of it, and one team that's never been down there drop in. I hope it's Brighton for their plastic fans, but so long as it's not us...

As long as we get 10 more pts the other permutations and combination of results will fall into place.

Longside4evr · Post by **Longside4evr** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:48 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:Our problem is that we can't afford any blips or "off days" now because we had more than our share before the New Year. Of course we expect nothing from Chelsea, City, Liverpool and Arsenal, but we have to be 100% at it when we play the rest and don't give them any freebies, otherwise we might struggle for the 10/11 points which might just see us ok. And keeping our current form going without hiccup all the way to the end of the season might be a tall order, especially if we get injuries or suspensions.

Thats negative thinking and that means we dont have any expectation to beat Tottenham up next
I see it as winnable a long with every game Chelsea away Liverpool away City at home are the most difficult but the longer this run goes on the stronger we will get UTC.

boatshed bill · Post by **boatshed bill** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:02 pm

Spijed wrote:As long as we get 10 more pts the other permutations and combination of results will fall into place.

10 points would mean that Cardiff and Southampton would need 13, more than a point a game from both which is unlikely in my opinion.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:54 pm

Longside4evr wrote:Thats negative thinking and that means we dont have any expectation to beat Tottenham up next
I see it as winnable a long with every game Chelsea away Liverpool away City at home are the most difficult but the longer this run goes on the stronger we will get UTC.

I do agree and you may not have noticed that I didn't include Spurs in the games where I'm expecting absolutely nowt. IF we turn up and we're really at it we CAN get something from that I believe.

bodge · Post by **bodge** » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:02 pm

Optimistic we'll stay up but Spurs are the one prem team who have had our number in the last few seasons at the Turf.

We're in good form though and you never know if Kane and Alli are still missing, Southampton must be concerned with Ings out and upcoming trips to Old Trafford and the Emirates.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:48 pm

After tonight I think it could very well be 34/35.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:45 pm

34/35 may well be enough, but I'll stick with 37.
That'll p1ss it.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:22 am

ElectroClaret wrote:34/35 may well be enough, but I'll stick with 37.
That'll p1ss it.

37 would only require 3 wins and a draw from 12 games that's surely possible.With our present form i can see us ending around 38-40 points that'll be plenty.

Claretforever · Post by **Claretforever** » Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:32 am

tiger76 wrote:37 would only require 3 wins and a draw from 12 games that's surely possible.With our present form i can see us ending around 38-40 points that'll be plenty.

Our present form doesn’t show that we have 5 of the top 6 to play yet from the final 11 games, and a couple of League hammerings could affect belief going into the following games.

I’m hoping 34 will be enough, but can see us hitting 36/37. I’d rather be around that figure after Cardiff at home too.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:23 am

On current form we should get more than 40 points reasonably comfortably considering our recent games have included West Ham, Watford and Man U.

Claretforever · Post by **Claretforever** » Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:31 am

Man United is fair comment, but that’s one in 7 (14%).

We now have 5 in 11 of their standard, and arguably higher (45%).

We have played Watford and West Ham, but also have Wolves, Everton, Bournemouth. I’d even shove Palace into that as they’re a threat to us with their pace.

I’m just saying that we have tougher games coming up than we have faced, and may go a few games without a win.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:40 am

10 more and we are more than safe

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:37 pm

Two wins and a draw.
Combined with today's result and last night.
Probably less now.

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:10 pm

3 less than at 1230.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:29 pm

If Cardiff average a point per game that will take them to 34 with a poor GD.

Bfcboyo · Post by **Bfcboyo** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:36 pm

Looking at the fixtures we need 7 points including 3 against Cardiff and we are safe.

jdrobbo · Post by **jdrobbo** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:43 pm

Sticking with 36 max.

jurek · Post by **jurek** » Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:53 pm

Given to think now that 34/35 points may suffice especially if
3 of those points are against Cardiff.
Previously thought we'd need 37/38.

They've got West Ham, Chelsea at home coming up in March followed by Man City away before they play us so
it's going to be tough for them to pick up many points, if any, from those.

If they come to us still 4 or 5 points behind us then a win against us is an absolute must.
If we beat them and end up 7 or 8 ahead of them then they probably have to win 3 of their
last 4/5 games to get above us.

Even if we draw and stay 4/5 points ahead then it's still a tall order
and assumes we won't pick up many points either.

We've gone off the boil in the last two games but they've not shown anything to suggest
that they can win 3 more games either.

We certainly could do with getting some points from the Leicester and Wolves home games
(even if it's a couple of draws and assuming we get beat at Liverpool) and if not then something
at Bournemouth before we face them.

I wouldn't want us to be facing Cardiff knowing that they have to win.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:03 am

I wouldn't want us to be facing Cardiff knowing that they have to win.

That could actually work in our favour. They'd have to throw the kitchen sink at us and we could catch them on the break.

Top Claret · Post by **Top Claret** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:54 am

36 pts should be enough

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:14 am

I think Cardiff's game at home to West Ham will have a big influence on the points required.

It wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility that if they lose that one then we may already have enough points already to stop up.

steve1264b · Post by **steve1264b** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:22 am

In the last 5 games we have only got one more point than Cardiff. I agree Cardiff v West Ham almost a decider.

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:15 pm

Wins Against Leicester and Cardiff will see us safe,any more points we pick up will be a bonus....36 is enough

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:02 pm

4 points and we'll see off the Welsh.

corporal jones · Post by **corporal jones** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:57 pm

ElectroClaret wrote:That could actually work in our favour. They'd have to throw the kitchen sink at us and we could catch them on the break.

What-with our lightening pace up front!

COBBLE · Post by **COBBLE** » Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:18 pm

Hopefully 4 more likely 8

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:13 pm

I think we've got enough....I really do.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:34 pm

I don't think we'll go down now,but it would be pleasing to finish strongly,let's put the R issue to bed next week,and then we can enjoy the last 4 games.