Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[dsr]

End of the day, this needs sorting one way or the other

- GE doesn't sort it, and both Lab and Cons will quite rightly fear one!

- 2nd ref does, but we'll have furious people whichever way it goes.

From my point of view, I'd rather put up with furious people and a functioning economy than furious people, a struggling economy and loads of furious people who realise that leaving the EU doesn't magically make stuff better. Oh, the country I love is much more likely to stay together as well.

To be fair, a second referendum wouldn't sort it if the answer was to leave again. It would just mean another referendum, another general election, ad infinitum.

Anyway, they can't have a second referendum until they have decided what question to put. And the favourite option appears to be to make sure that "Leave" as proposed by the Brexit Party doesn'tr appear on the list, for fear that people might vote for it.

[Lancasterclaret]

To be fair, a second referendum wouldn't sort it if the answer was to leave again. It would just mean another referendum, another general election, ad infinitum.

Anyway, they can't have a second referendum until they have decided what question to put. And the favourite option appears to be to make sure that "Leave" as proposed by the Brexit Party doesn'tr appear on the list, for fear that people might vote for it.

Thats not fair at all.

The plan for a 2nd ref was nowhere in 2016, 2017 and even 2018. The reason its become the only option is very obvious.

But I'm sure you know that, but again tying yourself in knots to try to avoid having to agree with the obvious.

Thats one thing I'm most definitely not going to miss about all this stuff.

[nil_desperandum]

To be fair, a second referendum wouldn't sort it if the answer was to leave again. It would just mean another referendum, another general election, ad infinitum.

Anyway, they can't have a second referendum until they have decided what question to put. And the favourite option appears to be to make sure that "Leave" as proposed by the Brexit Party doesn'tr appear on the list, for fear that people might vote for it.

It's perfectly obvious that if leave won again then we would leave under the terms of the vote. Not even the Lib Dems would doubt that. (It would probably lead to a major fracture with Scotland and NI, but that would have to be managed)
As for the questions, it's very simple:
Question 1 DO YOU WISH TO LEAVE THE EU? Yes / No
Question 2 IF the answer to question 1 is leave, do you:
A) Wish to leave under WTO terms
B) Wish a government appointed team to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU. (Please select one option)
{Wording for B) could obviously be adapted / modified to fit whatever the proposal is}

[AndyClaret]

BOOM !

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 54625?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Greenmile]

BOOM !

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 54625?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

When did you start listening to experts or pollsters?

[AndyClaret]

When did you start listening to experts or pollsters?

Dry your eyes mate.

[nil_desperandum]

Dry your eyes mate.

You realise I suppose that based on that, 74% of those surveyed oppose the Brexit Party.
So we've now gone from 52% at the referendum, to approx 34% at the EU polls and now 26%, and that's even before the electorate examine Farage's policies. Can't see that many traditional Labour voters being in favour of the privatised American style NHS that Farage advocates to be honest.
Anyway, enjoy this whilst you can, if you think it's cause for celebration, because Parliament isn't going to vote for an election any time soon.

[AndyClaret]

You realise I suppose that based on that, 74% of those surveyed oppose the Brexit Party.
So we've now gone from 52% at the referendum, to approx 34% at the EU polls and now 26%, and that's even before the electorate examine Farage's policies. Can't see that many traditional Labour voters being in favour of the privatised American style NHS that Farage advocates to be honest.
Anyway, enjoy this whilst you can, if you think it's cause for celebration, because Parliament isn't going to vote for an election any time soon.

Brexit party would get over 300 seats with these numbers, again, dry your eyes mate.

[nil_desperandum]

Brexit party would get over 300 seats with these numbers, again, dry your eyes mate.

Course they would. It would simply never occur to "thick" remain voters to vote tactically in every seat to ensure that remain candidates had the best chance.
But as I suggested this is an opinion poll and the Brexit Party haven't had to answer any awkward question on the economy, education, health etc.
One wonders tbh if the party could ever actually coalesce on any policies that both Ann Widdecombe and Claire Fox could agree upon. Not really a credible coalition / meeting of minds is it?

[TheFamilyCat]

Brexit party would get over 300 seats with these numbers, again, dry your eyes mate.

Coming from someone who regularly mocks Dianne Abbott’s grasp of maths, that’s pretty special.

[tiger76]

BOOM !

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/sta ... 54625?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think we'll see the 1st BP MP on Thursday(Peterborough by-election,thanks Fiona Onasanya

What happened to the Lib Dem surge down to 4th,Greens polling well also.

TBF the polls are crazily volatile ATM,time will tell whether this is a temporary blip,or a real realignment.

[AndyClaret]

Coming from someone who regularly mocks Dianne Abbott’s grasp of maths, that’s pretty special.

Not my maths sunny jim.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AndyClaret]

Course they would. It would simply never occur to "thick" remain voters to vote tactically in every seat to ensure that remain candidates had the best chance.
But as I suggested this is an opinion poll and the Brexit Party haven't had to answer any awkward question on the economy, education, health etc.
One wonders tbh if the party could ever actually coalesce on any policies that both Ann Widdecombe and Claire Fox could agree upon. Not really a credible coalition / meeting of minds is it?

How did that work out for you in the EU elections? They really worked well together there didn't they ?

[Imploding Turtle]

When did you start listening to experts or pollsters?

When they say something that supports his preconceived ideas, of course.

I can't wait until these people see other polls that show we've changed our mind on leaving the EU and decide that polls can't be trusted again.

[Imploding Turtle]

Our country is going to be run by a Russian asset, just like America.

Putin's a ******* genius.

[thatdberight]

Not my maths sunny jim.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pse ... 90528.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Imploding Turtle]

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pse ... 90528.html

The issue here is that while it's tempting to point to the Naive Projection of the EU results and compare it to the Realistic Projection, the RP is based on the expectation that BXP voters will return to voting for their more traditional party. And while not explicitely stated I expect the RP is also taking into account the much more increased turnout in any General Election to be a factor.

But those expectations are effectively countered by these new polls because voting intention polls naturally take into account turnout expediencies and loyalty.

My expectation is that we're probably still unlikely to end up with a Russian puppet from the Brexit Party as Prime Minister. More likely their puppet will continue to whisper in Corbyn's ear as PM. But if these polling results are still about the same in 6 to 12 months then.

This is just two polls, and it's important to remember that they're immediately after the EU elections. And it would be interesting to see voting intention poll results immediately after the previous EU elections to see how UKIP did in GE voting intent polls, but as much as it's comforting for people who enjoy personal liberties to say to ourselves "it's only two polls", a trend has to start somewhere so why not here?

[Greenmile]

Dry your eyes mate.

This is just a meaningless non-sequitur. Why would my eyes be wet because you’ve started to believe what experts say?

Try again, and see if you can have a stab at answering the question this time.

[Imploding Turtle]

If this holds up and Nigel Farage gets to form a government with a quarter of the popular vote I will genuinely laugh my tits off at all those morons who said that FPTP keeps extremists like Farage out of office while claiming that Proportional Representation would see him elected as PM.

And i'll still be laughing about being right when his jackbooted supporters put me against the wall for publicly denouncing him.

We live in interesting times. They've not been this interesting since the 30s.

[Imploding Turtle]

This is just a meaningless non-sequitur. Why would my eyes be wet because you’ve started to believe what experts say?

Try again, and see if you can have a stab at answering the question this time.

He's not started to believe what experts say. He doesn't care what they say. He only cares about what he can use.

[nil_desperandum]

How did that work out for you in the EU elections? They really worked well together there didn't they ?

Why would there be tactical voting in the EU elections when the result is determined by PR?
BP were perceived as winners there because they got the highest percentage of votes. Not enough for a majority of seats though.
It's FPTP at a GE though, and it's hard to see them picking up many seats even if they got an unrealistic 26% of the votes.

[Imploding Turtle]

Why would there be tactical voting in the EU elections when the result is determined by PR?
BP were perceived as winners there because they got the highest percentage of votes. Not enough for a majority of seats though.
It's FPTP at a GE though, and it's hard to see them picking up many seats even if they got an unrealistic 26% of the votes.

I think you're being naive if you think 26% is unrealistic at a general election. They probably won't get that much, because sooner or later they're going to have to explain where their money comes from, but it's not unrealistic that they do. It wasn't realistic that Russia would be able to plant an asset in the white house, nor was it realistic that Trump would become president, but both those things happened because Democrats, real Republicans, and liberals were naive.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

It's perfectly obvious that if leave won again then we would leave under the terms of the vote. Not even the Lib Dems would doubt that. (It would probably lead to a major fracture with Scotland and NI, but that would have to be managed)
As for the questions, it's very simple:
Question 1 DO YOU WISH TO LEAVE THE EU? Yes / No
Question 2 IF the answer to question 1 is leave, do you:
A) Wish to leave under WTO terms
B) Wish a government appointed team to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU. (Please select one option)
{Wording for B) could obviously be adapted / modified to fit whatever the proposal is}

It isn't down to the electorate to decide how we leave, that's down to the politicians, the people paid to do the best job they can ( they generally don't though) and to carry out the will of the people ( something they've resisted for the last few years it would appear).

Plus if the electorate voted to leave and then picked how, we'd just have to put up with more of the remainers calling the winning side stupid/ignorant/idiots/clueless/insert insult here like we have done for the last few years now and it's getting fairly tiresome.

[South West Claret.]

Just when you think there’s not much to add about this subject another post appears.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

End of the day, this needs sorting one way or the other

- GE doesn't sort it, and both Lab and Cons will quite rightly fear one!

- 2nd ref does, but we'll have furious people whichever way it goes.

From my point of view, I'd rather put up with furious people and a functioning economy than furious people, a struggling economy and loads of furious people who realise that leaving the EU doesn't magically make stuff better. Oh, the country I love is much more likely to stay together as well.

Scotland staying in the UK isn't a given even if remain was to eventually get a winning vote, as the SNP are going to keep pushing for a referendum either way and they really want to throw off the nasty English people ruling them from Westminster, they've made that perfectly clear these last few years.

So if we stayed in and Scotland left we'd have to knock up a modern version of Hadrian's wall because they wouldn't be an EU country for a good number of years and we all know the EU would demand a hard border, they'd have to now after the debacle they've created over Ireland.

[martin_p]

I think you're being naive if you think 26% is unrealistic at a general election. They probably won't get that much, because sooner or later they're going to have to explain where their money comes from, but it's not unrealistic that they do. It wasn't realistic that Russia would be able to plant an asset in the white house, nor was it realistic that Trump would become president, but both those things happened because Democrats, real Republicans, and liberals were naive.

Thing is, figures like these are actually counter productive to Farage and co at this stage of a five year fixed term government. They make the prospect of a general election before the end of that fixed term (in 2022) very unlikely. Whoever the new PM is they’d have to be mad to call an election with polling figures like that. Similarly Labour may not be too keen to propose another no confidence motion when their figures aren’t great either. This makes the prospect of a referendum to get us out of this mess more likely and at the moment those figures don’t stack up for Farage.

[Imploding Turtle]

Thing is, figures like these are actually counter productive to Farage and co at this stage of a five year fixed term government. They make the prospect of a general election before the end of that fixed term (in 2022) very unlikely. Whoever the new PM is they’d have to be mad to call an election with polling figures like that. Similarly Labour may not be too keen to propose another no confidence motion when their figures aren’t great either. This makes the prospect of a referendum to get us out of this mess more likely and at the moment those figures don’t stack up for Farage.

Yeah, we're not going to see an early GE if these kind of numbers for BXP hold up. But don't rule out some kind of coalition between BXP and the Tories. They might only be able to get 35-40% between them but with FPTP they can easily carve up seats to where they get enough together for a majority, while the other 60% who are fundamentally opposed to them are fractured across 5 different parties.

This is why it's more likely under FPTP that we'll get authoritarianism through an election than under PR, because these people don't need the will of the people to gain power. They just need to divide their opponents votes, and conquer with a minority.

[AndyClaret]

When they say something that supports his preconceived ideas, of course.

I can't wait until these people see other polls that show we've changed our mind on leaving the EU and decide that polls can't be trusted again.

We haven't changed our minds.

[Imploding Turtle]

We haven't changed our minds.

Prove it.

[If it be your will]

.

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

You'd have to be crazy to think a 2nd referendum would sort it. There seems to be a belief among a substantial number of remainers that a 2nd referendum would be won by remain, then everything can just go back to normal. There is no chance this is going to go away.

If there was a 2nd referendum I'm fairly certain leave would just win again. But even if remain won 55%-45% say, the Brexit Party would likely wipe out the Tories at the following election. In a fractured line-up and a FPTP system, the BP would probably only need something like 28-30% to get an overall majority - an entirely gettable amount considering how many totally obsessed leavers there are. They're not interested in Farage's economic and social policies, they just want to leave. (Do you really think Ringo would accept a 2nd referendum verdict any more than you accepted the first one?) So we'd end up leaving anyway, under Farage! But even if they failed to get this percentage of the vote, I doubt they'd end up with less than 100 seats in these circumstances. So they'd end up in coalition with the Tories, and we'd leave anyway!

That 2016 referendum was a seismic event. It changed everything. Quite where we're going I'm not sure, but it definitely won't be 'back to normal'.

This is my worry: everyone backing the 2nd ref is remain, and they assume they will win. However, it will only happen IMO if no-deal is on the ballot (perhaps as a 'negotiate a deal and, if that fails, leave with no deal' option) because reluctant MPs will only back it if they can sell it to their constituents.

Soft Brexit would make everyone happy, which would mean it is the definition of a compromise. I think that ship has sailed though.

[TonbridgeClaret]

Prove it.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/w ... resa%2BMay" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[TonbridgeClaret]

Prove it.

Or maybe this one

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/w ... 2Ba%2Bdeal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[martin_p]

Or maybe this one

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/w ... 2Ba%2Bdeal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Or maybe if you ungroup the responses Remain is the most popular answer.

[Imploding Turtle]

Or maybe if you ungroup the responses Remain is the most popular answer.

That was asked too and yes, Remain is the most popular option, but it's still unclear what we think because when Leaving with a deal is ruled out some of thoe votes will move to Remain, and some will move to Leave with No Deal.

What I find interesting however is that Tonbridge went straight past the homepage of that website and went hunting for poll results which he thinks supports the argument he prefers.

See if you can figure out why he did that. https://whatukthinks.org/eu/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Here, i'll provide a screen shot to help.



I guess we'll never know.

[Imploding Turtle]

Here's more evidence we've changed our mind.

53% of people who gave an opinion either "strongly agree" or "somewhat agree" that voting to leave the EU was a mistake.
That's a higher percentage than who originally voted to Leave. So if less than 52% is enough to leave the EU then surely a result of more than 52% the other way should mean maybe we should ask the question again just in case we have a different answer now. Because god forbid we should do something that the public no longer wants, right? "Will of the people" and all that?



https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/d ... ee&removed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[TonbridgeClaret]

Here's more evidence we've changed our mind.

53% of people who gave an opinion either "strongly agree" or "somewhat agree" that voting to leave the EU was a mistake.
That's a higher percentage than who originally voted to Leave. So if less than 52% is enough to leave the EU then surely a result of more than 52% the other way should mean maybe we should ask the question again just in case we have a different answer now. Because god forbid we should do something that the public no longer wants, right? "Will of the people" and all that?



https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/d ... ee&removed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting the the poll you showed is from seven months ago, when there was undoubtedly a surge for remain. Now the pendulum is swinging back towards leave.
Why would you do that? I guess we’ll never know.

Oh wait..... here comes Turtle!

[Imploding Turtle]

Interesting the the poll you showed is from seven months ago, when there was undoubtedly a surge for remain. Now the pendulum is swinging back towards leave.
Why would you do that? I guess we’ll never know.

Oh wait..... here comes Turtle!

I showed another poll. A poll of polls actually. the 6 most recent polls. The one you've criticised as being 7 months old was ancillary to my argument. You chose instead to attack that as being 7 months old (as if being 7 months old means it's invalid, but the ******* referendum result is 35 months old and that's apparently OK) but you skipped past my primary evidence which i presented beforehand. Why'd you do that?

53% Remain, 47% Leave. Explain that if we definitely haven't changed our minds.

[Lancasterclaret]

We haven't changed our minds.

What's this "we" business?

The only person you know 100% sure hasn't changed their mind is yourself.

[Imploding Turtle]

What's this "we" business?

The only person you know 100% sure hasn't changed their mind is yourself.

Fascists tend to think that everyone thinks like them. And that those who don't aren't really people.

[TheFamilyCat]

What's this "we" business?

The only person you know 100% sure hasn't changed their mind is yourself.

I reckon he’s fairly confident that Ringo hasn’t either.

[Lancasterclaret]

I reckon he’s fairly confident that Ringo hasn’t either.

I reckon people like Andy and Ringo ( for differing reasons) are great recruiters for remain.

Farage is as well, as he's complete Marmite.

[taio]

I reckon people like Andy and Ringo ( for differing reasons) are great recruiters for remain.

Farage is as well, as he's complete Marmite.

Let's not pretend that Farage isn't a skilled individual who has a proven track record at this. I think it's more likely that he'll drum up support for brexit rather than pushing current brexiteers to the remain side. The brexit cause is stronger with him than without him. He's a threat.

[Lancasterclaret]

Let's not pretend that Farage isn't a skilled individual who has a proven track record at this. I think it's more likely that he'll drum up support for brexit rather than pushing current brexiteers to the remain side. The brexit cause is stronger with him than without him. He's a threat.

Not pretending that at all, but his arguments when properly challenged don't hold up. As long as he's challenged by the media and the Brexit Partys "unique" leadership structure and policy base is scrutinised then he's not going to win.

[taio]

Not pretending that at all, but his arguments when properly challenged don't hold up. As long as he's challenged by the media and the Brexit Partys "unique" leadership structure and policy base is scrutinised then he's not going to win.

He wins if we leave the EU under arrangements he's content with. That's more likely than not at this juncture. The brexit party's only aim is that and their broader policies, or lack of, seem pretty irrelevant given the entire focus of Westiminster is trying to deal with Brexit.

[Imploding Turtle]

Not pretending that at all, but his arguments when properly challenged don't hold up. As long as he's challenged by the media and the Brexit Partys "unique" leadership structure and policy base is scrutinised then he's not going to win.

He likes to end interviews when he's faced with tough questions.
https://youtu.be/-pyYoL9ngtE?t=1125" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Or hangs up on callers when he knows he's going to have a tough call
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsIbM82k4FY" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lancasterclaret]

He wins if we leave the EU under arrangements he's content with. That's more likely than not at this juncture. The brexit party's only aim is that and their broader policies, or lack of, seem pretty irrelevant given the entire focus of Westiminster is trying to deal with Brexit.

Well, if he gets enough people to vote for his party on the basis that the only policy is Brexit, then we deserve all we get frankly.

[taio]

Well, if he gets enough people to vote for his party on the basis that the only policy is Brexit, then we deserve all we get frankly.

Only if we have a general election fairly soon. He can get what he wants without one. If a general election was to happen as it stands it looks like there will be plenty of people who vote for his party and sadly the majority of the electorate will surely be voting on the single issue of Brexit whoever they vote for.

[Lancasterclaret]

Only if we have a general election fairly soon. He can get what he wants without one. If a general election was to happen as it stands it looks like there will be plenty of people who vote for his party and sadly the majority of the electorate will surely be voting on the single issue of Brexit whoever they vote for.

This is true. I know I will be now (wouldn't have before but the sheer level of incompetence from the two main parties makes it inevitable)

[nil_desperandum]

I've come round to thinking that the current low level of support for Tories and Labour makes a People's Vote increasingly likely.
Why would either of them push for a Gen election in which they would get a hammering when they can instead put it to the people, analyse the result - which might even be conclusive - and then adapt their party policy accordingly?
(When I say conclusive, I mean it might be "leave" again).