Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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Bin Ont Turf
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Bin Ont Turf » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:29 pm

martin_p wrote: You do realise that the EU has been fully prepared for no deal for over six months now don’t you?
Fully prepared my arris.

It's impossible to be fully prepared for a no deal.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spijed » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:30 pm

BennyD wrote:The problem with all this leaked info regarding shortages, is that most of it has been leaked by remainers and then taken out of context. If you don’t prepare for the worst case, it will be THE worst case if it happens. Therefore the theoretical, food medicine, fuel, HRT drug shortages are just that; theoretical. There are many deals already in place and it won’t take long to get other deals in place with either the EU, the US or anybody else WE choose to have a deal with. The world won’t end and all our present trading partners will still want to take our money despite what the EU says. Remember, if the EU doesn’t trade with us their recession will happen sooner and be harder and they really, really don’t want that.
Won't take long to get a trade deal sorted will it?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ost-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Ceta, the EU-Canada deal, took seven years to negotiate and was about 22 years in the making. But this was a relatively simple trade agreement that does not include the services provisions and deals on non-tariff barriers that a big exporter of professional services such as Britain will almost certainly require.
Deals between larger economies such as the US/EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the US/Asia deal known as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) proved so complicated and controversial that they have collapsed under their own political weight."

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:33 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Fully prepared my arris.

It's impossible to be fully prepared for a no deal.
Why?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:35 pm

More good news on the No Deal front
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-crisi ... e-11800263

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:36 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:More good news on the No Deal front
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-crisi ... e-11800263
Someone in power really needs to speak to dsr about this.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Bin Ont Turf » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:41 pm

martin_p wrote:Why?
Well you can't 'fully prepare' for something that hasn't happened yet, and have no way of knowing 'fully' what will happen.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:43 pm

aggi wrote:Someone in power really needs to speak to dsr about this.
No need he's heading off to Dover as we speak to get things sorted
Image

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:45 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Well you can't 'fully prepare' for something that hasn't happened yet, and have no way of knowing 'fully' what will happen.
Well you can’t prepare for something that has already happened because then it’d be called reacting.

Obviously they’ve fully prepared on what they think will happen, that’s all fully preparing can ever be!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BennyD » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:46 pm

martin_p wrote:What experience? When has this ‘big stick’ approach been successful? You do realise that the EU has been fully prepared for no deal for over six months now don’t you?
The experience of May when she was repeatedly told that the deal on the table was non negotiable and the Oct 31st deadline was non moveable unless there was a second referendum or General election. Since no deal was put back on the table the EU are talking about an extension in order to get another deal done. The fact that the EU are preparing for a no deal exit does not mean they want one, because they most certainly don’t. They don’t want us to exit in any way shape or form and they will go to the ends of the earth to try and prevent one.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by tiger76 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:48 pm

BennyD wrote:Another revisionist, so let me respond; since the referendum MPs have always held the whip hand: how many votes have there been? The results of these votes have stymied progress on every level. Just to remind you, May actively approached all MPs as to why her deal was the best we could achieve, especially ahead of the THIRD failed vote.

Whoever showed you it was patent bollx (sic) was talking bollx and your analogy was as daft as you. Please let me rephrase; If I don't get a better deal I will withhold £39billion and it will bollx your economy more than our’s because you are heading into recession and you desperately need it. Btw, If you worked for the Samaritans, people would most probably top themselves rather than listen to your bollx so please don’t volunteer.

This government do want to leave with a deal but experience has shown we need to wield a big stick to get the deal we want, and the threat of leaving with no deal is the biggest stick we have. If you can’t/won’t see that you must be just another ******* and whatever I post will fall on thick ears.
MP'S have been given numerous chances to move the brexit process forwards,on each and every occasion they have failed to come to a majority on anything,OK! they don't like TM'S WA i get that,i don't particularly like it either,so they were given a series of indicative votes to express their wishes,even then no single motion carried a majority,including a 2nd referendum or a form of CU,so as parliament didn't coalesce around any alternatives,they can't now complain that Boris is trying to get a deal,but clearly being serious about walking away if he doesn't get a decent deal.

It's easy for parliament to say they aren't in favour of leaving with no deal,but ATM that's the default setting,until they pass legislation to change it.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:54 pm

BennyD wrote:The experience of May when she was repeatedly told that the deal on the table was non negotiable and the Oct 31st deadline was non moveable unless there was a second referendum or General election. Since no deal was put back on the table the EU are talking about an extension in order to get another deal done. The fact that the EU are prepared for a no deal exit does not mean they want one, because they most certainly don’t. They don’t want us to exit in any way shape or form and they will go to the ends of the earth to try and prevent one.
So the evidence that the ‘big stick’ approach works is the offer of an extension :lol: That’ll be the third extension, the first two happening before ‘no deal was put back on the table’.

Of course the EU don’t want no deal, but they aren’t prepared to abandon one of their members (Ireland) to achieve it. But the fact they have prepared indicates that they’ve always thought no deal is a realistic possibility, so the fact that ‘no deal is back on the table’ doesn’t really make any difference to whether the EU will change their stance or not.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Right_winger » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:55 pm

We don’t need or want a deal
With the EU. We should slash taxes to undercut them at every corner. They are genuinely scared of that scenario as it would cause the political block to implode on itself.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BennyD » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:57 pm

Tiger76, agreed. Without someone taking the lead and driving Brexit forward we would be forever doomed to the endless merry go round, until the people got so sick of it that they said “fuk it, it’s too much like hard work” and we stayed in. There was only one outcome the remainer MPs wanted and that was to remain. No deal forces them to come up with a plan and do something constructive rather than the institutional fuckery we’ve seen to date.
Last edited by BennyD on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BennyD » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:00 pm

Right_winger wrote:We don’t need or want a deal
With the EU. We should slash taxes to undercut them at every corner. They are genuinely scared of that scenario as it would cause the political block to implode on itself.
It’s going to implode, it’s just a matter of when. The loss of our £39billion might well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:01 pm

BennyD wrote:Martin p, agreed. Without someone taking the lead and driving Brexit forward we would be forever doomed to the endless merry go round, until the people got so sick of it that they said “fuk it, it’s too much like hard work” and we stayed in. There was only one outcome the remainer MPs wanted and that was to remain. No deal forces them to come up with a plan and do something constructive rather than the institutional fuckery we’ve seen to date.
But there’s literally nowhere else to go without relaxing some of our red lines. If the government do that they can go and renegotiate with the EU and bring something back they can probably get through Parliament.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BennyD » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:06 pm

martin_p wrote:So the evidence that the ‘big stick’ approach works is the offer of an extension :lol: That’ll be the third extension, the first two happening before ‘no deal was put back on the table’.

Of course the EU don’t want no deal, but they aren’t prepared to abandon one of their members (Ireland) to achieve it. But the fact they have prepared indicates that they’ve always thought no deal is a realistic possibility, so the fact that ‘no deal is back on the table’ doesn’t really make any difference to whether the EU will change their stance or not.
The offer of an extension is merely a ploy to allow remain MPs more time to try and get a second referendum or a GNU, it’s another desperate move to try and get the result they want. However, even that wasn’t possible until no deal came back. They haven’t thought no deal was a realistic possibility because they haven’t had to; as soon as it was taken off the table by MPs they had no reason to amend the buttfuck they presented to Mrs May. It makes a big difference because the possibility now exits of us withholding £39billion, a possibility that didn’t exist while no deal was off the table.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:08 pm

Right_winger wrote:We don’t need or want a deal
With the EU. We should slash taxes to undercut them at every corner. They are genuinely scared of that scenario as it would cause the political block to implode on itself.
Definitely an apt username.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:10 pm

BennyD wrote:The offer of an extension is merely a ploy to allow remain MPs more time to try and get a second referendum or a GNU, it’s another desperate move to try and get the result they want. However, even that wasn’t possible until no deal came back. They haven’t thought no deal was a realistic possibility because they haven’t had to; as soon as it was taken off the table by MPs they had no reason to amend the buttfuck they presented to Mrs May. It makes a big difference because the possibility now exits of us withholding £39billion, a possibility that didn’t exist while no deal was off the table.
How was an extension ‘not possible’ given it’s happened twice before?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:13 pm

Best way to break the internal stalemate would be to get No Deal fully legislated against.

This would force the fight towards the centre ground and start giving us some realistic solutions that the EU could engage with and ultimately give us a chance of getting out of the EU with a sensible agreement.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:14 pm

tiger76 wrote:MP'S have been given numerous chances to move the brexit process forwards,on each and every occasion they have failed to come to a majority on anything,OK! they don't like TM'S WA i get that,i don't particularly like it either,so they were given a series of indicative votes to express their wishes,even then no single motion carried a majority,including a 2nd referendum or a form of CU,so as parliament didn't coalesce around any alternatives,they can't now complain that Boris is trying to get a deal,but clearly being serious about walking away if he doesn't get a decent deal.

It's easy for parliament to say they aren't in favour of leaving with no deal,but ATM that's the default setting,until they pass legislation to change it.
I wouldn't disagree with most of that. Leave or remain, very few politicians have covered themselves in glory over the past few years.

Far too much in the way of party politics rather than prioritising the country.

I can't say I'm particularly surprised by it though. The whole Brexit vote came about due to party politics. Voting leave and putting the future of the next few generations in the hands of the current crop of politicians was certainly an interesting idea.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by mkmel » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:38 pm

To get a deal what is the worst that could happen if Johnson backtracks on his stance with the backstop?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:46 pm

Previous general elections were based on the idea that, when we cast our vote, it would be based on what our elected representatives promised they would do.

Whenever it comes, the next general election will take place on the People casting their vote based on what our elected representatives, promised, but haven't done.

Which is.



Respect democracy.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:55 pm

aggi wrote:Someone in power really needs to speak to dsr about this.
They certainly do.

Does anyone else have any notion as to why the paperwork takes longer for non-EU vehicles than it does for EU? Answer - it's to stop smuggling and tariff evasion. All the lorries have paperwork which may or may not be checked.

Does anyone know how effective the current system is at stopping smuggling? I don't. But I know this - it's less than 100%.

And the crucial question - how vital is it that smuggling does not increase by so much as an aspirin? Answer - that depends on your point of view. Some people reckon that the potential for extra smuggling, especially petty smuggling in small amounts, is so serious that both the Brexit referendum and the Good Friday agreement are less important. Others don't - others see smuggling as relatively trivial, especially in the short term.

So here is a simple and foolproof suggestion for not causing any delays in the border controls. Let the wagon drivers have the same paperwork and do the same checks on the wagons as they do now. Is that simple? Yes. Is it effective for getting goods into the country? Yes. Will it increase smuggling? Marginally. Very marginally. The companies that are currently filling in the paperwork and importing a million pounds of widgets every day aren't going to suddenly lie about the contents of their wagons and say they're bringing them in empty. That would be too obvious.

And as we get into the system, they system will be improved. They will start to put customs men on the ferries and trains (if they don't already) to do physical stock checks while in transit. They will make even greater use of pre-authorised customs check-in. Other changes will happen. IT DOESN'T ALL HAVE TO BE ON DAY ONE.

Every single import is already documented with Customs & Excise. There is no foreign army standing by to enforce increased checks post-Brexit.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:59 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:Best way to break the internal stalemate would be to get No Deal fully legislated against.

This would force the fight towards the centre ground and start giving us some realistic solutions that the EU could engage with and ultimately give us a chance of getting out of the EU with a sensible agreement.
Internal stalemate? There isn't an internal stalemate. We have a government going full steam ahead and a Parliament that can't be bothered coming back off holiday to take part. When Parliament eventually gets round to sitting again, there might be a stalemate.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:04 am

dsr wrote:They certainly do.

Does anyone else have any notion as to why the paperwork takes longer for non-EU vehicles than it does for EU? Answer - it's to stop smuggling and tariff evasion. All the lorries have paperwork which may or may not be checked.

Does anyone know how effective the current system is at stopping smuggling? I don't. But I know this - it's less than 100%.

And the crucial question - how vital is it that smuggling does not increase by so much as an aspirin? Answer - that depends on your point of view. Some people reckon that the potential for extra smuggling, especially petty smuggling in small amounts, is so serious that both the Brexit referendum and the Good Friday agreement are less important. Others don't - others see smuggling as relatively trivial, especially in the short term.

So here is a simple and foolproof suggestion for not causing any delays in the border controls. Let the wagon drivers have the same paperwork and do the same checks on the wagons as they do now. Is that simple? Yes. Is it effective for getting goods into the country? Yes. Will it increase smuggling? Marginally. Very marginally. The companies that are currently filling in the paperwork and importing a million pounds of widgets every day aren't going to suddenly lie about the contents of their wagons and say they're bringing them in empty. That would be too obvious.

And as we get into the system, they system will be improved. They will start to put customs men on the ferries and trains (if they don't already) to do physical stock checks while in transit. They will make even greater use of pre-authorised customs check-in. Other changes will happen. IT DOESN'T ALL HAVE TO BE ON DAY ONE.

Every single import is already documented with Customs & Excise. There is no foreign army standing by to enforce increased checks post-Brexit.
So what about the tariff evasion?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:04 am

aggi wrote:I wouldn't disagree with most of that. Leave or remain, very few politicians have covered themselves in glory over the past few years.

Far too much in the way of party politics rather than prioritising the country.

I can't say I'm particularly surprised by it though. The whole Brexit vote came about due to party politics. Voting leave and putting the future of the next few generations in the hands of the current crop of politicians was certainly an interesting idea.
My first post for a month on a politics thread, for once it seems something new may be happening.

I generally agree with this post and the post it replied to.

The only context I would add is when we talk about “the future of the next few generations”, for a true Brexit believer that is exactly what they are thinking of, and thinking it would be better outside the EU. It may feel to Remain voters that our children’s hopes would be up in the air, but many of us believe that is true anyway - the status quo is unaffordable houses, stagnant wages, disappearing final salary pensions, eroding national boundaries / sovereignty, fragmenting local communities, a disappearing British cultural identity, terrible transport infrastructure and prioritisation of an individual’s rights over responsibilities. All that lot is even before we get to macro issues like whole towns and regions being left behind. Much of it cannot be solved within the EU.

I’ve just spent over 3 weeks in California (all four corners of it) and the difference to the UK is stark. They have some issues but there was a strong national cultural identity, migrants (mainly Hispanics) seemed well integrated, people seemed happy and reasonably healthy, I hardly heard anyone moaning (despite a President in post they despise). I even roasted some of their famous chlorinated chicken - it was delicious.

So when I think of “the future of the next few generations” I would like us to be more like coastal America, just without the gun (and cannabis, which was disgusting) elements. I have a very clear view as to how we need to evolve, and that is why I back Boris in sacking, then deselecting, rebel MPs on this one issue. Due to the risk the plotters will stop Brexit and ruin our children’s futures, Boris has to get it done without a day’s further delay, no matter the short term problems which we have had 3 years to mitigate.

p.s. anyone wanting us to be more European instead of American, that’s your choice and I respect that, all I would ask is to receive the same courtesy.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:05 am

Devils_Advocate wrote:Best way to break the internal stalemate would be to get No Deal fully legislated against.

This would force the fight towards the centre ground and start giving us some realistic solutions that the EU could engage with and ultimately give us a chance of getting out of the EU with a sensible agreement.
How can they legislate against No Deal? Parliament has voted to leave the EU on 31st October, Deal or No Deal. To legislate against no deal would be the same as to legislate that 31st October won't happen - it would be meaningless.

What Parliament has to do is legislate for something positive. And unless this laughably named "Government of National Unity" can get together and repeal Article 50 (or persuade the EU to give another extension -good luck with that one!), quickly followed by a general election on which their campaign slogan will be "we want the Brexit rows to go on and on for years and years", then they can't do it. If they can't get a puppet PM on a short term basis, then Boris will still be PM on 31st October and we will leave.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:06 am

martin_p wrote:So what about the tariff evasion?
I don't know. What about it?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:09 am

dsr wrote:Internal stalemate? There isn't an internal stalemate. We have a government going full steam ahead and a Parliament that can't be bothered coming back off holiday to take part. When Parliament eventually gets round to sitting again, there might be a stalemate.
What part are parliament playing in negotiations with the eu and no deal presentations as that’s all that’s going on at the moment. Unless there’s a new deal to debate and vote on the only thing they can concern themselves with is trying to ensure the government doesn’t drive us off the edge of a cliff.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:16 am

dsr wrote:I don't know. What about it?
You mention smuggling and tariffs then the rest of your post is just about smuggling.

Besides, if we are operating under WTO rules we can’t have a different system for the EU as the rest of the world. So it’s either checks for all or open borders for the whole world.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:17 am

martin_p wrote:What part are parliament playing in negotiations with the eu and no deal presentations as that’s all that’s going on at the moment. Unless there’s a new deal to debate and vote on the only thing they can concern themselves with is trying to ensure the government doesn’t drive us off the edge of a cliff.
Why haven't they been doing that for the last 6 weeks? Boris Johnson became PM on 24th July which meant there were 99 days available to "do something about it". They knew Boris was heading for no deal unless the EU changed its mind; there is no new news on that. So far, 39 of those days have passed, and Parliament has sat for 1 of them, on which no business was done.

To force a general election on 24th October, the last Thursday before Brexit day, they had to force a vote of no confidence at least 8 weeks prior. That would be 29th August. They had 36 days between Johnson taking over as PM and the deadline to force a general election. What did they spend those 36 days doing? 1 day as the final day of the session, and 35 days on holiday.

This is Parliament's order of priorities:
1 - go on holiday
2 - deal with Brexit.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:22 am

martin_p wrote:You mention smuggling and tariffs then the rest of your post is just about smuggling.

Besides, if we are operating under WTO rules we can’t have a different system for the EU as the rest of the world. So it’s either checks for all or open borders for the whole world.
No, you're wrong. We have to have the same rules for the EU as for the rest of the world, though as you well know they don't have to come in on day 1 - transition periods are allowed.

But having the same system? Nonsense. Does Sweden, for example, have the same system for goods coming in from Norway as it does from Iceland? No, because one lot comes in by road and the other by sea. Goods coming from Norway are checked by unmanned cameras and number plate recognition as the lorries cross the border. They don't do that with lorries coming from Iceland because there aren't any roads - they use a different system.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:24 am

dsr wrote:Why haven't they been doing that for the last 6 weeks? Boris Johnson became PM on 24th July which meant there were 99 days available to "do something about it". They knew Boris was heading for no deal unless the EU changed its mind; there is no new news on that. So far, 39 of those days have passed, and Parliament has sat for 1 of them, on which no business was done.

To force a general election on 24th October, the last Thursday before Brexit day, they had to force a vote of no confidence at least 8 weeks prior. That would be 29th August. They had 36 days between Johnson taking over as PM and the deadline to force a general election. What did they spend those 36 days doing? 1 day as the final day of the session, and 35 days on holiday.

This is Parliament's order of priorities:
1 - go on holiday
2 - deal with Brexit.
Why do they need to force an election before Brexit day? They need to get an extension then have a general election. There was zero chance of a successful vote of no confidence in the 36 days after Johnson was crowned anyway. MPs (certainly the Tories) were prepared to give him a bit of a chance, the numbers just wouldn’t have worked.

Besides according to Johnson the chance of no deal was ‘a million to one’.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:28 am

dsr wrote:No, you're wrong. We have to have the same rules for the EU as for the rest of the world, though as you well know they don't have to come in on day 1 - transition periods are allowed.

But having the same system? Nonsense. Does Sweden, for example, have the same system for goods coming in from Norway as it does from Iceland? No, because one lot comes in by road and the other by sea. Goods coming from Norway are checked by unmanned cameras and number plate recognition as the lorries cross the border. They don't do that with lorries coming from Iceland because there aren't any roads - they use a different system.
Ok same rules then, but it means checks for goods coming from the eu that we don’t have now or essentially no checks at all for anything coming from the rest of the world if we decide to stick to the current eu rules.

As it stands there’s no transition period agreed.
Last edited by martin_p on Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:31 am

martin_p wrote:Why do they need to force an election before Brexit day? They need to get an extension then have a general election. There was zero chance of a successful vote of no confidence in the 36 days after Johnson was crowned anyway. MPs (certainly the Tories) were prepared to give him a bit of a chance, the numbers just wouldn’t have worked.

Besides according to Johnson the chance of no deal was ‘a million to one’.
Did they have to take Johnson's word for it?

How will they get an extension? If they try and force Johnson to ask for one, he will treat it as a vote of no confidence and force a general election - or else stay in office, depending on the fixed parliament law - unless the GNU can be cobbled together. Will the EU grant an extension to a lame duck PM, when they know no more about the future than this - (i) the lame duck PM won't be PM for long; (ii) there will be a general election and Lord knows who will be PM after that; (iii) Parliament will almost certainly be hung again unless a Tories/Brexit alliance can win a majority; (iv) whoever wins in whatever combination doesn't like the May deal and has voted against it several times; (v) the resolution to the impasse will almost certainly involve another referendum; (vi) referendums don't solve anything anyway. Unanimous agreement? I wonder.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:34 am

martin_p wrote:Ok same rules then, but it means checks for goods coming from the eu that we don’t have now or essentially no checks at all for anything coming from the rest of the world if we decide to stick to the current eu rules.
No it doesn't. In time, the checks on goods from the EU will be different and more thorough than they are now. But not on November 1st. Who would or could enforce it?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:38 am

dsr wrote:Did they have to take Johnson's word for it?

How will they get an extension? If they try and force Johnson to ask for one, he will treat it as a vote of no confidence and force a general election - or else stay in office, depending on the fixed parliament law - unless the GNU can be cobbled together. Will the EU grant an extension to a lame duck PM, when they know no more about the future than this - (i) the lame duck PM won't be PM for long; (ii) there will be a general election and Lord knows who will be PM after that; (iii) Parliament will almost certainly be hung again unless a Tories/Brexit alliance can win a majority; (iv) whoever wins in whatever combination doesn't like the May deal and has voted against it several times; (v) the resolution to the impasse will almost certainly involve another referendum; (vi) referendums don't solve anything anyway. Unanimous agreement? I wonder.
The indications are that they will grant an extension yes. A general election will effectively act as a second referendum I suspect. If the Tories win with or without the Brexit Party it will effectively clear the way for no deal. Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP will promise at least a second referendum and if they win a second referendum would probably get us to remain.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:41 am

dsr wrote:No it doesn't. In time, the checks on goods from the EU will be different and more thorough than they are now. But not on November 1st. Who would or could enforce it?
No one, but why would we want to be upsetting countries we are trying to negotiate trade deals with? For example Donald Trump is hardly known for his patience where he thinks the USA is being unfairly treated. As it stands WTO rules will apply from 1st November as I understand it.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:54 am

martin_p wrote:No one, but why would we want to be upsetting countries we are trying to negotiate trade deals with? For example Donald Trump is hardly known for his patience where he thinks the USA is being unfairly treated. As it stands WTO rules will apply from 1st November as I understand it.
Yes, they will. But WTO rules aren't prescriptive about exactly what checks have to be made, or even as to whether there has to be a "hard border". If, long term, the UK is seen to be treating the EU preferentially, then complaints will be made and action will be taken. But that isn't going to happen on 1st November.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:01 am

dsr wrote:Yes, they will. But WTO rules aren't prescriptive about exactly what checks have to be made, or even as to whether there has to be a "hard border". If, long term, the UK is seen to be treating the EU preferentially, then complaints will be made and action will be taken. But that isn't going to happen on 1st November.
WTO prescribes that the rules have to be non-discriminatory, so unless we change the non-EU rules those are the rules/checks that will apply from 1st November. It says as much on the governments own website (although it relates to possible no deal on 29th March).

Just so I’m clear, from 1st November, in the event of no deal we’re going to **** off the eu by not paying the £39 billion and the rest of the world by giving the eu preferential trading conditions, contrary to WTO rules. Then we’re going to go to all these countries/trading blocks and expect to get decent trade deals.

Doesn’t sound like the best plan to me!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:41 am

So with Johnson threatening to withdraw the whip and deselect Tories who vote against him this week and plenty of Tories refusing to crumble under the threat, looks like we’ll officially have a minority government by the end of the week.
Last edited by martin_p on Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:43 am

AndrewJB wrote:A. Leaving without a deal means leaving everything. You’ve said it yourself. Leaving with a May style deal means we have free trade yet to negotiate with a two year time limit (which will work in the EUs favour, because they can better absorb trade loss than us, and will therefore be able to get more concessions out of us as the clock ticks down). Leaving the EU but staying in everything else (or something similar) will command more support, give us an immediate free trade deal, and keep us in the areas of cooperation.

B.Not by any means all of them. Among MPs a majority are against no deal because they fear it could be terrible for our country, but there are a lot who also oppose a second referendum, and want to see a softer Brexit implemented.

C. We would know what the future relationship would be if we just left the EU and nothing else. The more we cut our ties with the EU (like leaving things like the the CU, etc), then the more uncertainty we introduce. The more uncertainty we introduce, the more likely we’ll see negative outcomes from that uncertainty. A no deal will bring our relationship with the EU to an all time low. This is a fact, because whatever our relationship has been like in the past, it has never gone from one point to a very negative other point overnight before. Based on these things, while we can’t see the future in this scenario, we can accurately predict it will be less good than now. A good future relationship will be far harder to hammer out in these circumstances than in more good natured ones. And nobody is getting in the way of negotiations. That’s just Johnson getting his excuses in beforehand. The facts remain that his position and that of the EU are too far apart. Nothing more.

D. I blame Cameron first and foremost, then May and her government; and now the Johnson clown show. Nobody else has had anything other than periphery participation to take any blame. Cameron’s ruinous austerity, as well as his purely partisan referendum. May’s refusal to engage with the world outside her own party, even after she lost her majority. And Johnson setting appalling parliamentary precedents (you won’t like it, but then won’t be able to complain if another government behaves the same way).
You've convinced me, trying to explain anything to you is ******* in the wind.

Let's see what Boris's crimes are.

Forcing a leave with no deal, while pretending to want to do one.

Poroguing Parliament in order to force Brexit.

A coup on Parliamentary democracy.

Threatening to withdraw the whip from Tories who undermine his leap into chaos.

Thousands demonstrating in the street

Returning power into the hands of the rich and privileged.

Food shortages, medicine shortages, price increase in the shops.

A car park of the M20


Yet despite all that if there was a GE tomorrow, his majority would be between 18 and 84.

Somebody's missing something and it isnt me.
Even Blair is saying take control of the house, but dont allow Boris to call a GE under any circumstances. So much for democracy.

People vote leave, MPs undermine it, claim we need a second referendum, but now they know they'd lose a second referendum as well, which is basically what a GE caused by this mess would be, they want to alter the course of our future. What I think, even what you think, doesn't matter a damn.

When will you wake up. You put your trust in the wrong politicians. I can understand why, I sympathise I do, they scared you into believing all the stories of doom and gloom, but even you should be able to see through it by now. If they are right, why would they run shy of a GE. Its because they know that the public, including the working class man, have had enough. They voted leave, we just want to see an end to it.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:46 am

AndrewJB wrote:I think more remainers would come on side if the deal Johnson struck involved closer ties to Europe. You say now that a Norway style deal is not acceptable (though I say it is) but during the referendum many leavers touted it as a viable option. Between the end of the referendum and when only leaving everything to do with the EU became the leaver position, don’t you see how far the leave position travelled away from the things it said during the referendum? If leavers had just said: “in three years we’ll be on the verge of leaving with no deal” - you would have lost. So leave owes it to everyone to actually canvas the country and see how we want to leave, and leaving with no deal is not going to win much support. You say a Norway option isn’t good enough for you, but if that’s what the public want, well you just have to accept it. A Norway option isn’t good enough for me, but if its what the public want then what more can I say?

So no, I’m not going to get behind Johnson, because he’s trying to achieve the impossible. The Irish border problem can not be solved while we turn our backs on a more sensible customs / market arrangement. Johnson can at best repackage Mays deal, and for the alternative to just be no deal - well you can understand why people are angry. What a stupid cul de sac to take us down. And while leavers are obstinate about this kind of hard Brexit, support for not leaving at all will grow.
Just read the last reply, and then read your post again mate.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:57 am

Rees-Mogg *chap whos newly EU relocated hedge fund is shorting the pound) on LBC this morning says we can't have a second referendum "because it would overturn the first one".

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:00 am

martin_p wrote:So with Johnson threatening to withdraw the whip and deselect Tories who vote against him this week and plenty of Tories refusing to crumble under the threat, looks like we’ll officially have a minority government by the end of the week.
I doubt he would need to deselect them. These MPs stood in 2015 on a platform of a referendum about Brexit, they voted to accept the result of the referendum, and they stood again in 2017 on a platform of leaving the EU. And now they're doing all they can to keep us in. That's a pretty hypocritical approach anyway, but even they surely couldn't vote to bring down the government and then expect to stand again on a policy of supporting the referendum and Brexit.

It's a normal thing that MPs who vote to bring down their own government get the whip withdrawn from them. They'll all have to resign on their fat pensions and £80k tax free payoffs, or else stand as independents (and if they lose, still collect the fat pension and £80k tax-free payoffs).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spijed » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:05 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:Yet despite all that if there was a GE tomorrow, his majority would be between 18 and 84.
Would that be the case though?

If an election is held before October 31st then it'll mean Brexit MP's will take a fare share of the Tory vote.

Also, in 2017 Teresa May had polls pointing towards a 17 point lead at one point.

In addition, in places such as Canterbury, there is no knowing whether the student vote will have an effect.


It all depends on whether Labour is willing to work with other groups. I

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:08 am

dsr wrote:I doubt he would need to deselect them. These MPs stood in 2015 on a platform of a referendum about Brexit, they voted to accept the result of the referendum, and they stood again in 2017 on a platform of leaving the EU. And now they're doing all they can to keep us in. That's a pretty hypocritical approach anyway, but even they surely couldn't vote to bring down the government and then expect to stand again on a policy of supporting the referendum and Brexit.

It's a normal thing that MPs who vote to bring down their own government get the whip withdrawn from them. They'll all have to resign on their fat pensions and £80k tax free payoffs, or else stand as independents (and if they lose, still collect the fat pension and £80k tax-free payoffs).
Suspect they’ll stand as independents, taking votes off whoever the Tories select as candidates.

When did Boris Johnson have the whip withdrawn for consistently voting against May’s withdrawal agreement?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:11 am

Spijed wrote:Would that be the case though?

If an election is held before October 31st then it'll mean Brexit MP's will take a fare share of the Tory vote.

Also, in 2017 Teresa May had polls pointing towards a 17 point lead at one point.

In addition, in places such as Canterbury, there is no knowing whether the student vote will have an effect.


It all depends on whether Labour is willing to work with other groups. I
It depends on a lot more than just that!

My (possibly optimistic) view is that, as long as Farage can be kept onside, it will be a comfortable victory for Boris whenever the election happens. The reason being that he has a positive message of "we know what we're doing and it's going to work" while the Remain side has a negative message of "we don't know what we're doing, let's extend Brexit so we can continue the farce". Die hard leavers and remainers won't be swayed; the don't-care-all-that-much people will definitely swing towards the Tories on that one.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:12 am

martin_p wrote:Suspect they’ll stand as independents, taking votes off whoever the Tories select as candidates.

When did Boris Johnson have the whip withdrawn for consistently voting against May’s withdrawal agreement?
He didn't bring down the government. Also May was a very very weak PM.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BennyD » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:18 am

martin_p wrote:How was an extension ‘not possible’ given it’s happened twice before?
The EU said it. They said they weren’t going to keep extending the deadline if things weren’t progressing in Westminster.

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