Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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TheFamilyCat
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TheFamilyCat » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:09 pm

Spijed wrote:Isn't that what he said in the quote I posted above that was taken from the BBC?
It’s just shown a clip of him saying pretty much that on the 10 o’clock news.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:16 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Bizarre speech by Johnson today.

Needed to come out swinging and really, really, really didn't.

Something tells me that he's getting a lot of hassle from his own side over this daft proroguing of parliament lark.
I thought so too.
I didn't see the purpose of addressing the public, with such little meat on the bones.
I'm hoping that hes playing it long, to let remain hang itself. Their efforts to derail the referendum are becoming more obvious and transparent every day.
Even the most ardent remainer cant deny that Hillary Benns Bill is designed to prevent a deal, not to ensure one. The public will only take so much. I think the majority of the people see it for what it is anyway, but if Boris can open the eyes of the deniers, remain will have a hell of a price to pay.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:18 pm

martin_p wrote:I’m not having it both ways, I said the EU had been fully prepared for six months or more and was told they couldn’t be. As I said, the EU have prepared on the basis of what they think will happen, it’s all you can ever do with preparation.
Fair enough, I hope you're right, it means the transition will be smoother and faster.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:21 pm

martin_p wrote:The last two and a half years of not getting a deal acceptable to Brexiteers is already history.
Martin the last 2.5 years we've had a remainer in charge of the country. A Brexiteer has never had the opportunity to do a deal until Boris was elected
As I said, we dont know what sort of deal he can get.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:23 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Martin the last 2.5 years we've had a remainer in charge of the country. A Brexiteer has never had the opportunity to do a deal until Boris was elected
As I said, we dont know what sort of deal he can get.
We do actually. It's the one we have. It's the reality (sadly)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:26 pm

martin_p wrote:So you agree that the EU are likely to agree to an extension is we want one then.
Of course I do, because I didn't believe them when they said it wouldnt be extended again, just as I dont believe them when they say there is no other deal.
They would keep extending it until me and you are in the grave If necessary. They'll also do a deal as soon as we prove that we are prepared to leave without one.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:29 pm

martin_p wrote:He planting blame for his failure.
Getting ready to plant the blame where it lies.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:33 pm

I think the main aim of the GE threat is to spook labour mps in leave areas. They really won't want a GE now and could well abstain or even vote with the Gov in the expected vote on whether to prevent a no deal. There could be enough to cancel out the tory rebels.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:36 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:We do actually. It's the one we have. It's the reality (sadly)
It's not reality, just wishful thinking.
I agree the only deal we'll get is the one on offer, IF remainers continue to block negotiations.
That doesn't make you right, just morally wrong.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:36 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Martin the last 2.5 years we've had a remainer in charge of the country. A Brexiteer has never had the opportunity to do a deal until Boris was elected
As I said, we dont know what sort of deal he can get.
But I genuinely don’t understand what else you think the EU can offer. The only thing that stopped May’s agreement going through was the backstop, Johnson wants the backstop gone. For the EU to drop the backstop you’ve got to be prepared to believe there’s a solution that no one has thought of (politician, negotiator, media commentators) or that the EU are prepared to crap on one of their members and break the Good Friday Agreement.

Which is it?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by ClaretAndJew » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:43 pm

You all having a good Brexit aye?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:44 pm

summitclaret wrote:I think the main aim of the GE threat is to spook labour mps in leave areas. They really won't want a GE now and could well abstain or even vote with the Gov in the expected vote on whether to prevent a no deal. There could be enough to cancel out the tory rebels.
I wish that was true, but I dont see it. Nobody steps out of line under momentum. Their shafted of they do, and shafted if they dont.
Labour really shot itself in the foot.
Corbyn campaigned against the EU for 40 years. Peter Shore, Tony Benn, all the old guard Left Wingers saw EEC for what it was, the EU is even worse. Momentum saw political gain in changing course and aligning themselves against the Tories, instead of supporting Brexit, that most of them privately still believe.
They've painted themselves into a corner where they are even more unpopular.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spijed » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:03 pm

Taken from BBC:

"Local party shows support for rebel Hammond
Former Chancellor Philip Hammond is one of the Conservative MPs threatened with the sack by the party if they rebel over this week's Brexit vote.

He has now received a show of "overwhelming support" from his local party in Runnymede and Weybridge tonight as it announces his reselection as their candidate for the next election.

The constituency says the decision is not about "Brexit or the next two months" but shows their confidence in him and his work over 22 years. But it is also likely to be seen as an endorsement of his opposition to a no-deal Brexit."

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:05 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Utter ********
You worked out an answer to my question about how those immigrants in London managed to vote in the referendum yet?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:09 pm

Spijed wrote:Taken from BBC:

"Local party shows support for rebel Hammond
Former Chancellor Philip Hammond is one of the Conservative MPs threatened with the sack by the party if they rebel over this week's Brexit vote.

He has now received a show of "overwhelming support" from his local party in Runnymede and Weybridge tonight as it announces his reselection as their candidate for the next election.

The constituency says the decision is not about "Brexit or the next two months" but shows their confidence in him and his work over 22 years. But it is also likely to be seen as an endorsement of his opposition to a no-deal Brexit."
I really don't see how Hammond can say in Parliament "I detest what Brois Johnson is doing and I want to vote the government out of office because they are in favour of Brexit".

And then next day say "I support Boris Johnson and wish to express my support for him as Prime Minister and I stand by the Tory manifesto which is in favour of Brexit".

And then after the election "i detest Brexit and do not support the manifesto which I claimed to support yesterday because I wanted votes".

Of course he can't stand as a Tory if he votes to bring down the Tory government. Bercow himself couldn't be so hypocritical. (Could he?) He'll have to stand as an independent, or he could join one of the other parties.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:10 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:You worked out an answer to my question about how those immigrants in London managed to vote in the referendum yet?
I don't quite understand this recurring question. Why shouldn't immigrants vote? All UK citizens get the vote, wherever they were born.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:15 pm

I reckon the plan is a general election ("forced" on Johnson by those dastardly rebels).

Election will be run on a politicians vs the people basis and return an increased majority (Brexit party will fail miserably).

The increased majority will end the reliance on the DUP which will mean Johnson can shift the backstop to NI only and leave on that basis.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by If it be your will » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:17 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:I wish that was true, but I dont see it. Nobody steps out of line under momentum. Their shafted of they do, and shafted if they dont.
Labour really shot itself in the foot.
Corbyn campaigned against the EU for 40 years. Peter Shore, Tony Benn, all the old guard Left Wingers saw EEC for what it was, the EU is even worse. Momentum saw political gain in changing course and aligning themselves against the Tories, instead of supporting Brexit, that most of them privately still believe.
They've painted themselves into a corner where they are even more unpopular.
That's only 'sort of' true. It is very true that until very (very) recently it was de rigeur for lefties to be deeply eurosceptic. I also happen to consider it true that Labour shot themselves in the foot when they backed remain in the referendum (I personally think this was a once in a lifetime opportunity to take the working class with them, rather than - yet again - siding with university educated urbanites).

That momentum have anything like the influence you seem to think they have is laughably false, though. They barely even register anymore, and were never anywhere near as powerful as the media made out. It is also completely incorrect to believe that most momentum members are secret brexiteers. They're not. I've spoken to loads of them, and to my utter frustration, they're nearly all genuine remain fanatics (AndrewJB was a member, for instance, does he sound like a secret brexiteer to you??).

If Labour go into an October 14th election with their current brexit policy, they will suffer a very heavy defeat. It's nonsense, it really is. I suspect they'll go full 'Revoke A50', in which case they'll still suffer a heavy defeat, but at least it would be an honest, heavy defeat.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:21 pm

dsr wrote:I really don't see how Hammond can say in Parliament "I detest what Brois Johnson is doing and I want to vote the government out of office because they are in favour of Brexit".

And then next day say "I support Boris Johnson and wish to express my support for him as Prime Minister and I stand by the Tory manifesto which is in favour of Brexit".

And then after the election "i detest Brexit and do not support the manifesto which I claimed to support yesterday because I wanted votes".

Of course he can't stand as a Tory if he votes to bring down the Tory government. Bercow himself couldn't be so hypocritical. (Could he?) He'll have to stand as an independent, or he could join one of the other parties.
He can say it because you’ve missed the important words ‘no deal’ from a number of those ‘quotes’.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:25 pm

martin_p wrote:He can say it because you’ve missed the important words ‘no deal’ from a number of those ‘quotes’.
Really? So let's rephrase it.

In Parliament: "I detest what Boris Johnson is doing and I want to vote the government out of office."

At the hustings: "I support Boris Johnson and wish to express my support for him as Prime Minister and I stand by the Tory manifesto."

In Parliament: "I do not support the manifesto, which I claimed to support yesterday only because I wanted votes."

It doesn't matter what the reasons are behind voting down the government. You can't disapprove of the government so strongly that you vote to turf them out, and then next day start chasing votes on the basis that you are a supporter of the government.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by If it be your will » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:26 pm

aggi wrote:I reckon the plan is a general election ("forced" on Johnson by those dastardly rebels).

Election will be run on a politicians vs the people basis and return an increased majority (Brexit party will fail miserably).

The increased majority will end the reliance on the DUP which will mean Johnson can shift the backstop to NI only and leave on that basis.
That's pretty much my prediction, but with a tweak. I think the Brexit Party will only field candidates against remainer MPs (of whichever party), and do reasonably well in those. Maybe win about 30 seats or something.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:28 pm

If it be your will wrote:That's only 'sort of' true. It is very true that until very (very) recently it was de rigeur for lefties to be deeply eurosceptic. I also happen to consider it true that Labour shot themselves in the foot when they backed remain in the referendum (I personally think this was a once in a lifetime opportunity to take the working class with them, rather than - yet again - siding with university educated urbanites).

That momentum have anything like the influence you seem to think they have is laughably false, though. They barely even register anymore, and were never anywhere near as powerful as the media made out. It is also completely incorrect to believe that most momentum members are secret brexiteers. They're not. I've spoken to loads of them, and to my utter frustration, they're nearly all genuine remain fanatics (AndrewJB was a member, for instance, does he sound like a secret brexiteer to you??).

If Labour go into an October 14th election with their current brexit policy, they will suffer a very heavy defeat. It's nonsense, it really is. I suspect they'll go full 'Revoke A50', in which case they'll still suffer a heavy defeat, but at least it would be an honest, heavy defeat.
I'll take your word on momentum, I left the party before they were a force, so all my knowledge is from an outside view point.
Labour needs to take a good look at itself. They barge down the same path, adamant that they are right, and never stop to consider either why the message is not getting across, or have they got the wrong message.
I do believe the left just succour power, they've had none since OMOV, and they would probably prefer to be in charge of the opposition, than not in charge of a Labour government.

I've never changed my socialist views, I always say the Labour Party left me, I didn't leave the Labour party and I'd gladly go back when they move back towards the centre, I just cant see it happening for a long time.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:30 pm

dsr wrote:Really? So let's rephrase it.

In Parliament: "I detest what Boris Johnson is doing and I want to vote the government out of office."

At the hustings: "I support Boris Johnson and wish to express my support for him as Prime Minister and I stand by the Tory manifesto."

In Parliament: "I do not support the manifesto, which I claimed to support yesterday only because I wanted votes."

It doesn't matter what the reasons are behind voting down the government. You can't disapprove of the government so strongly that you vote to turf them out, and then next day start chasing votes on the basis that you are a supporter of the government.
Where’s he said he wants to vote the government out of office? He wants to stop no deal.

As we’ve already discussed, the manifesto talks about a deal and an orderly exit. I’m not sure how you interpret being against no deal as being against the manifesto, either literally or in spirit.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by tiger76 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:33 pm

dsr wrote:
I really don't see how Hammond can say in Parliament "I detest what Brois Johnson is doing and I want to vote the government out of office because they are in favour of Brexit".

And then next day say "I support Boris Johnson and wish to express my support for him as Prime Minister and I stand by the Tory manifesto which is in favour of Brexit".

And then after the election "i detest Brexit and do not support the manifesto which I claimed to support yesterday because I wanted votes".

Of course he can't stand as a Tory if he votes to bring down the Tory government. Bercow himself couldn't be so hypocritical. (Could he?) He'll have to stand as an independent, or he could join one of the other parties.


He can say it because you’ve missed the important words ‘no deal’ from a number of those ‘quotes’.

TBF to Hammond he voted through the WA,now some brexiteers might not think that was brexitty enough,but it's a bit rich to suggest he's trying not to implement the 2016 referendum,and this is the problem with both camps there is no middle ground anymore,hence why we're at a stalemate.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:34 pm

martin_p wrote:Where’s he said he wants to vote the government out of office? He wants to stop no deal.

As we’ve already discussed, the manifesto talks about a deal and an orderly exit. I’m not sure how you interpret being against no deal as being against the manifesto, either literally or in spirit.
Obviously I haven't seen the manifesto because it hasn't been written yet. But surely you must expect that it will contain the assertion that we will leave on October 31st, deal or no deal?

He might not say that he wants to vote the government out of office. But if a vote is held which he knows in advance will put the government out of office, and he votes against the government, then that's what he's doing, even if in an ideal world it would stop no deal but keep the Tories in power.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by If it be your will » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:36 pm

martin_p wrote:Where’s he said he wants to vote the government out of office? He wants to stop no deal.

As we’ve already discussed, the manifesto talks about a deal and an orderly exit. I’m not sure how you interpret being against no deal as being against the manifesto, either literally or in spirit.
I think dsr is referring to the manifesto that will be printed in 3 weeks, rather than the one printed in 2017. (edit - oops, too late)
Last edited by If it be your will on Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:36 pm

martin_p wrote:But I genuinely don’t understand what else you think the EU can offer. The only thing that stopped May’s agreement going through was the backstop, Johnson wants the backstop gone. For the EU to drop the backstop you’ve got to be prepared to believe there’s a solution that no one has thought of (politician, negotiator, media commentators) or that the EU are prepared to crap on one of their members and break the Good Friday Agreement.

Which is it?
Its 2020, with all that modern technology has to offer, and nobody can come up with a solution to the back stop.
Just as they dont want a deal, they dont want to solve the problem of the backstop. The status quo means we are still in the EU.
Just as they'll deal when we leave they will find a solution to the back stop when we leave.
Until then they'll keep claiming there is no other deal available, and shoot down any proffered solution out of hand.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:38 pm

tiger76 wrote:TBF to Hammond he voted through the WA,now some brexiteers might not think that was brexitty enough,but it's a bit rich to suggest he's trying not to implement the 2016 referendum,and this is the problem with both camps there is no middle ground anymore,hence why we're at a stalemate.
It's not really a matter of what he has done before (though he was stabbing May in the back as well). The issue is that if anyone of any party votes to bring down the government, they cannot then stand next day as supporters of the government.

May's deal is dead, anyway. Only a few Tories still support it now that it isn't official government policy, and none of the other parties supported it at all. So unless the others parties go for spectacular political expediency above even the slightest of principles, the deal is dead.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by If it be your will » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:40 pm

The Boris solution to the backstop is the one that was always the obvious one, but couldn't be implemented whilst they were in coalition with the DUP: a customs border in the Irish Sea. The EU have previously indicated they would not be against such an arrangement.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:41 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Martin the last 2.5 years we've had a remainer in charge of the country. A Brexiteer has never had the opportunity to do a deal until Boris was elected
As I said, we dont know what sort of deal he can get.
You're saying that May (who hardly campaigned for remain), leading a mostly leave party, and with a cabinet with lots of leavers - especially in the posts most abutting brexit, like "brexit secretary" "international trade" "foreign secretary" - that May somehow contrived to screw brexit up, and nobody in the party noticed? This is Theresa May, the "lame duck" PM, who suffered record rebellions from within her own party, and many within her own cabinet. And somehow on the biggest issue of the day she sneaked through a failure? Or did she actually try, and found the task (with the red lines forced on her by the ERG) simply impossible? If you believe it's somehow the former, then what evidence do you have?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:41 pm

martin_p wrote:Where’s he said he wants to vote the government out of office? He wants to stop no deal.

As we’ve already discussed, the manifesto talks about a deal and an orderly exit. I’m not sure how you interpret being against no deal as being against the manifesto, either literally or in spirit.
Because every man and his dog, barring you, know that without the option of leaving with no deal, we will never get a deal. If we dont get a deal we can never leave.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:42 pm

dsr wrote:Obviously I haven't seen the manifesto because it hasn't been written yet. But surely you must expect that it will contain the assertion that we will leave on October 31st, deal or no deal?

He might not say that he wants to vote the government out of office. But if a vote is held which he knows in advance will put the government out of office, and he votes against the government, then that's what he's doing, even if in an ideal world it would stop no deal but keep the Tories in power.
Yes but that’s Johnson’s choice not Hammond’s (another threat from Johnson, it seems to be his one and only negotiating tool).

There were remain MPs who the Tories were quite happy to let stand at the last election. Do you think it’s good for politics that a political party should be made up of MP clones?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:43 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Because every man and his dog, barring you, know that without the option of leaving with no deal, we will never get a deal. If we dont get a deal we can never leave.
You never answered my question on what more you think the EU can offer.

Edit- noticed you have while I was replying! There isn’t a technology solution yet, it’s been looked at and it’s a number of years away.
Last edited by martin_p on Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by PaintYorkClaretnBlue » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:44 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Because every man and his dog, barring you, know that without the option of leaving with no deal, we will never get a deal. If we dont get a deal we can never leave.
I can’t believe that some people struggle with that concept.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:47 pm

AndrewJB wrote:You're saying that May (who hardly campaigned for remain), leading a mostly leave party, and with a cabinet with lots of leavers - especially in the posts most abutting brexit, like "brexit secretary" "international trade" "foreign secretary" - that May somehow contrived to screw brexit up, and nobody in the party noticed? This is Theresa May, the "lame duck" PM, who suffered record rebellions from within her own party, and many within her own cabinet. And somehow on the biggest issue of the day she sneaked through a failure? Or did she actually try, and found the task (with the red lines forced on her by the ERG) simply impossible? If you believe it's somehow the former, then what evidence do you have?
Because the EU confirmed dealing with May was like dealing with a dead sheep. She didn't negotiate the WA, she gave it to them.
It wasnt Brexit, it was remaining under another title. That's why they were so happy with it, remainers liked it, but Brexiteers didn't.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:50 pm

If it be your will wrote:That's only 'sort of' true. It is very true that until very (very) recently it was de rigeur for lefties to be deeply eurosceptic. I also happen to consider it true that Labour shot themselves in the foot when they backed remain in the referendum (I personally think this was a once in a lifetime opportunity to take the working class with them, rather than - yet again - siding with university educated urbanites).

That momentum have anything like the influence you seem to think they have is laughably false, though. They barely even register anymore, and were never anywhere near as powerful as the media made out. It is also completely incorrect to believe that most momentum members are secret brexiteers. They're not. I've spoken to loads of them, and to my utter frustration, they're nearly all genuine remain fanatics (AndrewJB was a member, for instance, does he sound like a secret brexiteer to you??).

If Labour go into an October 14th election with their current brexit policy, they will suffer a very heavy defeat. It's nonsense, it really is. I suspect they'll go full 'Revoke A50', in which case they'll still suffer a heavy defeat, but at least it would be an honest, heavy defeat.
Correction please. I've never been a member of Momentum. I've been a member of the Green Party since 2015.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:52 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Because the EU confirmed dealing with May was like dealing with a dead sheep. She didn't negotiate the WA, she gave it to them.
It wasnt Brexit, it was remaining under another title. That's why they were so happy with it, remainers liked it, but Brexiteers didn't.
Even Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted it was actually leaving. I don’t understand why, if you think there’s an available technology solution to the Irish border issue, you’d have a problem with the backstop. It’d never get implemented.
Last edited by martin_p on Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by If it be your will » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:54 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Correction please. I've never been a member of Momentum. I've been a member of the Green Party since 2015.
Sincere apologies. I honestly thought I remembered a post of yours from ages ago saying you were joining Momentum.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:55 pm

PaintYorkClaretnBlue wrote:I can’t believe that some people struggle with that concept.
I can’t believe people think the EU will crap over Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement to avoid no deal. As I keep iterating, they’ve been prepared for no deal for a long time. They don’t want no deal but they’ve always been serious about the possibility of it happening. Let’s not forget that the votes to order the PM to request an extension we’re both late in the day and quite close.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:56 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Because every man and his dog, barring you, know that without the option of leaving with no deal, we will never get a deal. If we dont get a deal we can never leave.
Remainers never, ever try and counter this point.
They do understand, but they are terrified of leaving with a better deal than the remain minus deal that May tried to force through

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:56 pm

Damo wrote:Remainers never, ever try and counter this point.
They do understand, but they are terrified of leaving with a better deal than the remain minus deal that May tried to force through
I just have done.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by tiger76 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:57 pm

dsr wrote:It's not really a matter of what he has done before (though he was stabbing May in the back as well). The issue is that if anyone of any party votes to bring down the government, they cannot then stand next day as supporters of the government.

May's deal is dead, anyway. Only a few Tories still support it now that it isn't official government policy, and none of the other parties supported it at all. So unless the others parties go for spectacular political expediency above even the slightest of principles, the deal is dead.
Is Hammond that bothered about standing again anyway,he's 63 and isn't likely to be in line for a cabinet post anytime soon.

He'll either go independent,or more likely step down from the HOC altogether,and no doubt land a cushy number in the HOL or in the city.

You would imagine May's deal in it's current form is dead,but given the nature of UK politics in recent times who knows,the one advantage it has is that it's thus far the only deal on the table,now of course this could change in the coming weeks,but i wouldn't guarantee the EU offering any olive branches well they know there is every chance of a GE or another extension,or even A50 being revoked altogether,which can't be ruled out,they'll wait and see what unfolds first before showing their hand.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:58 pm

martin_p wrote:Yes but that’s Johnson’s choice not Hammond’s (another threat from Johnson, it seems to be his one and only negotiating tool).

There were remain MPs who the Tories were quite happy to let stand at the last election. Do you think it’s good for politics that a political party should be made up of MP clones?
It's a long standing parliamentary convention that if an essential plank of a government's programme is defeated, then it is a resigning matter. It's not Johnson making it up.

Parties shouldn't be m,ade up of clones. But nor should they be made up of people trying to get votes by pretending to support the government when they intend to vote with the opposition.

Hammond can of course stand at the next election; he might well win if he's as popular as all that. But if he opposes the Tories' central policy, he can't stand as a Tory.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:03 am

dsr wrote:It's a long standing parliamentary convention that if an essential plank of a government's programme is defeated, then it is a resigning matter. It's not Johnson making it up.
So you think Johnson will resign.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:05 am

tiger76 wrote:Is Hammond that bothered about standing again anyway,he's 63 and isn't likely to be in line for a cabinet post anytime soon.

He'll either go independent,or more likely step down from the HOC altogether,and no doubt land a cushy number in the HOL or in the city.

You would imagine May's deal in it's current form is dead,but given the nature of UK politics in recent times who knows,the one advantage it has is that it's thus far the only deal on the table,now of course this could change in the coming weeks,but i wouldn't guarantee the EU offering any olive branches well they know there is every chance of a GE or another extension,or even A50 being revoked altogether,which can't be ruled out,they'll wait and see what unfolds first before showing their hand.
I can just about imagine that Boris gets defeated, that he calls for a vote under the fixed term parliament act, and some puppet PM (Clarke?) is appointed to get an extension to the extension. And then the EU leans on him and says there will be no extension, and the Remainers are so desperate that they sign May's deal.

And when the coalition falls apart and the Tories win the next election, as they surely would, there would be hell to pay. It certainly wouldn't help future relations with the EU.

The next general election would be an easy win for a Tory/Brexit coalition, IMO. On the one hand, the Tories/Brexit party say they have a solution and it's going to work. On the other hand we have the Labour/Liberal parties saying they have no solutions and they don't know what's happening but they want things to continue as they are now. Who's got the more popular policy?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:09 am

martin_p wrote:So you think Johnson will resign.
Yes, if his votes are defeated. But by the time the votes have been held, and then the 14-day search for a new PM has happened, the next general election (6 week campaign, minimum) will be into November. Or even, ironically, 31st October. And if the Government of 48% Unity doesn't happen, Parliament will be dissolved but Johnson will remain PM until the election.

Parliament should have got on with this sooner instead of going on holiday. They have very much restricted their own options.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:09 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:Because every man and his dog, barring you, know that without the option of leaving with no deal, we will never get a deal. If we dont get a deal we can never leave.
This is the opposite of what leave said during the referendum - that it will be the easiest deal in history. Why can't you bring yourself to admit that they got it completely wrong?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:09 am

aggi wrote:Now this is what I don't understand. You have a list of issues (some which I agree with, some which I don't but that's by the by) and say they can't be solved within the EU. How is membership of the EU stopping us resolving unaffordable houses or poor transport infrastructure. Is it really the EU causing whole towns and regions to be left behind? If so, how?

You see the EU being blamed for a lot of stuff but when it comes down to the brass tacks it turns out to be the UK's, not the EU's, responsibility (e.g. see Colburn's comments on wanting to leave the EU to stop jobless immigrants claiming welfare. That's all down to the UK to enforce).

I've got to say my experience of California didn't mirror yours. My abiding memory was the big groups of hispanic workers hanging around street corners hoping to be picked up for a day's work. I remember talking to a few business owners who said how great having this was as it meant they didn't have to pay holidays, offer healthcare, etc. A Peurto Rican accountant I worked with told me how since Trump came in she always had to make a point of telling people that she was Peurto Rican rather than Hispanic as the discrimination and abuse had got far worse.

I also assume you didn't go to LA. I've travelled a lot but it was one of the few cities I've felt fearful walking around once you got off the main strip, the place is horrible. Or San Francisco and the huge amounts of homeless people there.
Sorry it’s taken me a while to reply.

Yes, a few of our “problems” cannot be solved in the EU, ones affecting sovereignty, neoliberal culture, migration etc. But some are unrelated like transport. That’s why I said many of them, not all of them.

The real reason for my reply was to continue the USA conversation, which is fascinating.

Among others I went to San Diego, the Mexican border, Los Angeles (Santa Monica, Venice, Hollywood, Anaheim, Beverly Hills), San Francisco, the farming belt in the middle and the mountains to the east. I saw some really poor areas and some really rich ones. I love it, but would accept there are problems, like everywhere.

Apart from nearly getting beaten up by a local with an over the top view of queueing etiquette, everyone I met was friendly, including the migrants from Mexico. LA was far better than I expected. You mention the homelessness in San Francisco - yes, it was a culture shock to see them entering coffee shops and rifling through the bins without being turned away. I took a 7 year old one block west of Union Square and it was terrifying, very edgy, homeless everywhere, not like the UK. A guy told me that because in the Earthquake State tall buildings are mainly prohibited, there is a chronic lack of housing. No doubts that the USA has massive issues with free market economics and I would personally prefer more of a safety net for those who fall on hard times. Why does losing one’s job need to result in losing a home and rifling through bins in Starbucks?

There is of course no country on Earth where all the best bits of all the others are encapsulated in that one.

P.s. off topic, the baseball in San Francisco showed me what a sports stadium should be like. Absolutely fantastic. About 30 different food and drink outlets ringing a concourse, from cheap to fancy, drink holders in comfy seats, nice toilets. If only we could do that over here.....no reason why not.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:10 am

dsr wrote:Yes, if his votes are defeated. But by the time the votes have been held, and then the 14-day search for a new PM has happened, the next general election (6 week campaign, minimum) will be into November. Or even, ironically, 31st October. And if the Government of 48% Unity doesn't happen, Parliament will be dissolved but Johnson will remain PM until the election.

Parliament should have got on with this sooner instead of going on holiday. They have very much restricted their own options.
Despite the fact that every political commentator, including the ones that have been talking to government spokespeople, say Johnson will call an election on 14th October if he loses the vote tomorrow.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:16 am

martin_p wrote:Despite the fact that every political commentator, including the ones that have been talking to government spokespeople, say Johnson will call an election on 14th October if he loses the vote tomorrow.
Call an election on 14th October, win (in his mind) in the early hours of Tuesday morning, then hours later walk into the EU summit and shake Leo’s hand with a big smile on his face.

That’s his plan. Risky. I suspect Labour will say no, despite Corbyn. My guess is we will walk into November 1st still in the EU, with Labour refusing to vote for an election, but with Johnson’s minority government kept in office but not in power. Then, and only then, will there be a vote of no confidence in him and the election to follow.

He will then win a small majority, I predict, and take us out sometime in 2020.

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