Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:19 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Call an election on 14th October, win (in his mind) in the early hours of Tuesday morning, then hours later walk into the EU summit and shake Leo’s hand with a big smile on his face.

That’s his plan. Risky. I suspect Labour will say no, despite Corbyn. My guess is we will walk into November 1st still in the EU, with Labour refusing to vote for an election, but with Johnson’s minority government kept in office but not in power. Then, and only then, will there be a vote of no confidence in him and the election to follow.

He will then win a small majority, I predict, and take us out sometime in 2020.

Corbyn has said he’ll back an election. If Johnson loses the vote tomorrow it’s short odds on a 14th October election.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:22 am

If it be your will wrote:Sincere apologies. I honestly thought I remembered a post of yours from ages ago saying you were joining Momentum.

I considered it, but chose not to. I remain in contact with quite a few members - all decent, nice people who just want a better Britain and better world - and I still think it's a powerful arm of the Labour Party in terms of their ability to get people knocking on doors (which in my mind should always be the strength of a party that stands for ordinary people), and ringing phones. I have a Tory neighbour who is terrified of them (their ability to swing voters).

I don't feel fanatical about the EU either, actually. But the future I see outside it is worse than what we have in it.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:27 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Call an election on 14th October, win (in his mind) in the early hours of Tuesday morning, then hours later walk into the EU summit and shake Leo’s hand with a big smile on his face.

That’s his plan. Risky. I suspect Labour will say no, despite Corbyn. My guess is we will walk into November 1st still in the EU, with Labour refusing to vote for an election, but with Johnson’s minority government kept in office but not in power. Then, and only then, will there be a vote of no confidence in him and the election to follow.

He will then win a small majority, I predict, and take us out sometime in 2020.

We can only stay in the EU if the Prime Minister takes action to change things. If they don't vote Boris out, then we leave on 31st October. I hope. Johnson must know that if he is still PM on 1st November and we haven't left, then he is finished.

atlantalad · Post by **atlantalad** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:32 am

martin_p wrote:I’m not having it both ways, I said the EU had been fully prepared for six months or more and was told they couldn’t be. As I said, the EU have prepared on the basis of what they think will happen, it’s all you can ever do with preparation.

I have not heard of, nor seen, the preparations Ireland has made given their main pathway of import/ export through the UK will be severely curtailed come 31 October. Have they seconded the Seabourne Ferries fleet that the UK arranged back in December 2018 in the event of a no deal?

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:37 am

atlantalad wrote:I have not heard of, nor seen, the preparations Ireland has made given their main pathway of import/ export through the UK will be severely curtailed come 31 October. Have they seconded the Seabourne Ferries fleet that the UK arranged back in December 2018 in the event of a no deal?

Google is your friend. Knock yourself out.

https://www.dfa.ie/media/dfa/eu/brexit/ ... y-2019.pdf

atlantalad · Post by **atlantalad** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:28 am

martin_p wrote:Google is your friend. Knock yourself out.

https://www.dfa.ie/media/dfa/eu/brexit/ ... y-2019.pdf

Read the pages 51, 54, 55.

According to info on p 55 they are as "prepared" as much as the UK presently is ( there is ambiguity depending on deal/ no deal scenario). If that is your intrepretation of being "fully" prepared ?

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:13 am

AndrewJB wrote:This is the opposite of what leave said during the referendum - that it will be the easiest deal in history. Why can't you bring yourself to admit that they got it completely wrong?

Why cant you get it into your head that it will be easy, once the remainers stop getting in the way. The only thing stopping a deal is remainers.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:24 am

martin_p wrote:Even Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted it was actually leaving. I don’t understand why, if you think there’s an available technology solution to the Irish border issue, you’d have a problem with the backstop. It’d never get implemented.

Theres always a solution, to any political problem, but only if both parties want to find a solution.
Only we are in a situation where we want a solution, but the EU dont. If they agree to any solution, they are removing a stumbling block of Brexit. They dont want us to go, so they sit on their hands and do nothing. Whatever viable solution Boris comes up with, it will be rejected. Just as any deal Boris comes up with will be rejected.
It all boils down to who has the power in the house. If Boris has the power we will deal, if the remainers in the house have the power we will never deal.

HieronymousBoschHobs · Post by **HieronymousBoschHobs** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:38 am

Less people arguing the toss on this forum now.

Is it about Brexit now?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:35 am

Peter Foster of the Telegraph summing it up very well

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 6292824064" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You can either believe those who have been caught out lying on here over the past three years, or you can trust the political writer of the Daily Telegraph (which is as Brexity as they come)

Time to face reality chaps.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:52 am

More reality

(Unless of course you don't believe anything experts tell you!)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -uk-europe" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:05 am

More common sense as journalists start waking up to this is all a sham to force us out without a deal

"The ‘no deal’ threat strategy is totally illogical when you think about it.

No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in.

Which one is it?"

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:15 am

Short as it may have been, I think the speech last night in Downing street indicated we are now seeing the end game for Boris Johnson as PM.
He knows it, and so does Dominic Cummings.
It's becoming clear that many of the rebel Tory MP's have the support of their local constituencies, and as a result will vote against the government today.
The Labour MP, Tony Lloyd, also indicated on Newsnight that they wouldn't grant the 2/3's majority for a general election unless on their terms.
Again, I think Boris now knows this.

By Proroguing Parliament he called their bluff.

And has basically lost.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:19 am

By proroguing parliament he basically told the whole country that he was prepared to do ignore the whole of the idea of Brexit in the first place to try to get a Brexit that the majority don't want, and made it very obvious.

You don't appoint Dominic Cummings as your strategist if you are trying to convince people that you are interested in a "Deal".

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:26 am

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status ... 2598118400" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

BBC Newsnight
@BBCNewsnight
.
@maitlis
: “Categorically, Jeremy Corbyn and the party would vote against an election if it came to Labour this week or next week?”

Tony Lloyd (
@tony4rochdale
): “Absolutely… we don’t want to fight an election that allows Boris Johnson to crash us out (of the EU)”

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:12 am

atlantalad wrote:Read the pages 51, 54, 55.

According to info on p 55 they are as "prepared" as much as the UK presently is ( there is ambiguity depending on deal/ no deal scenario). If that is your intrepretation of being "fully" prepared ?

Being as prepared as they can be, yes. It’s not their fault the U.K. can’t get their act together.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:15 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:Theres always a solution, to any political problem, but only if both parties want to find a solution.
Only we are in a situation where we want a solution, but the EU dont. If they agree to any solution, they are removing a stumbling block of Brexit. They dont want us to go, so they sit on their hands and do nothing. Whatever viable solution Boris comes up with, it will be rejected. Just as any deal Boris comes up with will be rejected.
It all boils down to who has the power in the house. If Boris has the power we will deal, if the remainers in the house have the power we will never deal.

So why hasn’t the party that want the solution said what it is then. Why hasn’t a political commentator mentioned it. Are you telling me there’s a solution to the problem but everyone who has worked it out is keeping their mouths shut?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:16 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:More common sense as journalists start waking up to this is all a sham to force us out without a deal

"The ‘no deal’ threat strategy is totally illogical when you think about it.

No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in.

Which one is it?"

This is the real world, not some computer game where everything is one extreme or the other.

1. No deal is manageable. Not ideal, but financially free trade is better than tariff-trade.

2. The EU, by choosing not to take the offered free trade except on impossible terms, is deciding for political reasons to make itself poorer. (And unlike the UK, they haven't asked the people if that's what they want.) The hope is that they will change their mind when they see the money folaoting away downstream.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:19 am

Spijed wrote:Short as it may have been, I think the speech last night in Downing street indicated we are now seeing the end game for Boris Johnson as PM.
He knows it, and so does Dominic Cummings.
It's becoming clear that many of the rebel Tory MP's have the support of their local constituencies, and as a result will vote against the government today.
The Labour MP, Tony Lloyd, also indicated on Newsnight that they wouldn't grant the 2/3's majority for a general election unless on their terms.
Again, I think Boris now knows this.

By Proroguing Parliament he called their bluff.

And has basically lost.

How can Labour vote to emasculate the PM, but not to appoint a new one, and not to have a new election? Putting parliament in a position where it can't do anything isn't going to stop Brexit. By having an election on 14th October, they can stop Brexit once and for all - all they need do is win popular support.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:22 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Peter Foster of the Telegraph summing it up very well

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 6292824064" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You can either believe those who have been caught out lying on here over the past three years, or you can trust the political writer of the Daily Telegraph (which is as Brexity as they come)

Time to face reality chaps.

So essentially the one tactic is threats. No one should be surprised with Cummings pulling the strings.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:27 am

dsr wrote:This is the real world, not some computer game where everything is one extreme or the other.

1. No deal is manageable. Not ideal, but financially free trade is better than tariff-trade.

2. The EU, by choosing not to take the offered free trade except on impossible terms, is deciding for political reasons to make itself poorer. (And unlike the UK, they haven't asked the people if that's what they want.) The hope is that they will change their mind when they see the money folaoting away downstream.

You mean the political reason of not breaking an international treaty.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:33 am

"Its a coup!!! Its a coup!!!!"

You can have a general election to stop the coup.

"Er , no thanks, we're good"

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:42 am

dsr wrote:This is the real world, not some computer game where everything is one extreme or the other.

1. No deal is manageable. Not ideal, but financially free trade is better than tariff-trade.

2. The EU, by choosing not to take the offered free trade except on impossible terms, is deciding for political reasons to make itself poorer. (And unlike the UK, they haven't asked the people if that's what they want.) The hope is that they will change their mind when they see the money folaoting away downstream.

You can't say it's the real world, and then deny the reality of that same world in the same tweet.

You need to deal with reality.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:57 am

"Boris Johnson was elected by .05% of the electorate. He has no mandate whatsoever!!!!"

You can have a general election to secure your own mandate.

"Er, no thanks, we're good"

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:57 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:You can't say it's the real world, and then deny the reality of that same world in the same tweet.

You need to deal with reality.

The real world says that at present, the UK and the EU cannot find acceptable terms on which to trade other than WTO rules. Three options when that happens:

1. The EU caves and allows the UK to have its way.
2. The UK caves and allows the EU to have its way.
3. Neither caves and they trade on the WTO basis.

You're in favour of option 2, I am not. That's the reality. It is possible that the EU will renegotiate, but it seems quite likely that they will dig their toes in and change nothing. In neither case, IMO, should the UK roll over.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:59 am

I'm in favour of a deal.

You are in favour of economic suicide.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:01 am

I'm only posting cos I'm sat in the hairdressers waiting for the kids!

Nice to see that you are still passionately arguing for economic damage to the country!

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:04 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:I'm only posting cos I'm sat in the hairdressers waiting for the kids!

Nice to see that you are still passionately arguing for economic damage to the country!

But it’s the patriotic thing to do Lancaster!

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:07 am

Remoaners and Peoples Vote campaigners -

"You cannot have too much democracy"

You can have a democratic general election.

"Er, naah, wrong kind of democracy"

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:12 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:Why cant you get it into your head that it will be easy, once the remainers stop getting in the way. The only thing stopping a deal is remainers.

I read this post thinking it was someone taking the mick. Only when I saw who posted it did I realise it was serious.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:18 am

Deutsche Bank’s chief economist, David Folkerts-Landau, not only says that over the medium and long-term a ‘No Deal’ Brexit will make no difference to the British economy, he says a bad deal which constrained the British economy would be “a second best solution”.

Confirming what many in Downing Street believe, namely that even without the back-stop, May’s regulatory-aligned deal would have detrimentally constrained the dynamic British economy. So-called “regulatory alignment” is an EU imposed constraint on unleashing the British economy to outcompete turgid EU rivals.

Deutsche Bank’s chief economist, or the UTC message board economic remoaner gurus?

I know who I'm gonna listen to.

chorleyhere · Post by **chorleyhere** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:25 am

Welcome to the Colburn Claret thread - free insult with every reply LOL. Polite discourse only please.

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:32 am

People do forget we do approx 50% of all trade on WTO anyway . China/USA/India /South America et al. No it isn’t ideal for certain exporters/importers but this “ economic suicide” thing is nothing short of hysterical unfounded horsesh1t . The single major short term supply issue will be whether the French ports decide to act like sulking shoulder shrugging petulant beurocratic bell ends or they act like a normal responsible allied nation .

I don’t see why the EU don’t just keep free trade with us as a Uber sensible business decision and let that be the end of it. The rest is simply a matter of national governance

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:34 am

Spreadsheet Phil threatening to take the Tories to court if they try to deselect him

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:37 am

A the leaked French memo on Friday revealed, Paris fears a resurgent, deregulated dynamic British economy…

That explains why hard core Francophile, recipient of the Legion D'honneur and pathological remoaner, Dominic Greive, is so hysteria riddled. The duplicitous , traitorous , anglophobic rat is concerned about the economic fortunes of his beloved country.

France.....

NottsClaret · Post by **NottsClaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:42 am

If we do have an election - and why not, we must be due one - how will that pan out do we reckon?

I can see the Lib Dems doing very well, as they're the only Remain party so will hoover up a lot of those votes. The Brexit Party will probably suffer now Boris is a No Deal Brexiter (because that's what got him the job) and so the Tories will take back all Farage's votes. Could be a bit of a disaster for Labour, as Jeremy is a God among his cult but not so popular beyond that. If he did get in would he ever take us out? I suspect he'd quite like too really, but with Parliament full of No Dealers and Remainers how would he ever do that..

android · Post by **android** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:55 am

If they vote against a General Election, as seems to be on the cards, the Labour Party position becomes:

1) will not support ANY DEAL to leave the EU negotiated by the government
2) will not support leaving the EU without a deal
3) will not support a General Election having said this is the only way to resolve Brexit
4) will not support a 2nd Referendum, unless they cannot get a General Election, which they now do not want

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:58 am

Shouts heard at a labour party demo:

What do we want? We don't know!
When do we want it? Not yet!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:03 am

android wrote:If they vote against a General Election, as seems to be on the cards, the Labour Party position becomes:

1) will not support ANY DEAL to leave the EU negotiated by the government
2) will not support leaving the EU without a deal
3) will not support a General Election having said this is the only way to resolve Brexit
4) will not support a 2nd Referendum, unless they cannot get a General Election, which they now do not want

You are a fair poster android but that isn't true.

Lab policy (For the first time for years!) Very clear on what they are doing this morning

android · Post by **android** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:39 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:You are a fair poster android but that isn't true.

Lab policy (For the first time for years!) Very clear on what they are doing this morning

Which bit is untrue?
You might be the only person in the country who knows what the Labour party wants!

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:46 am

Labour -

1 "We want to secure a deal that protects jobs and the economy."

2 "Then we'll put it to the people in a confirmatory vote."

3 "Then we'll campaign to Remain!"!

Labour - actually prepared to shoot themselves in both feet.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:53 am

AlargeClaret wrote:People do forget we do approx 50% of all trade on WTO anyway . China/USA/India /South America et al. No it isn’t ideal for certain exporters/importers but this “ economic suicide” thing is nothing short of hysterical unfounded horsesh1t . The single major short term supply issue will be whether the French ports decide to act like sulking shoulder shrugging petulant beurocratic bell ends or they act like a normal responsible allied nation .

I don’t see why the EU don’t just keep free trade with us as a Uber sensible business decision and let that be the end of it. The rest is simply a matter of national governance

None of those are solely on WTO terms, we have various side deals in place. There are about a dozen, small countries in the world that trade on solely WTO terms.

Not sure what you expect here or they act like a normal responsible allied nation given we'll have specifically made them not an allied nation.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:59 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:Why cant you get it into your head that it will be easy, once the remainers stop getting in the way. The only thing stopping a deal is remainers.

Brexit PM, Brexit cabinet, Brexit staff; but it's still the remainers who are preventing that "easy" deal? The actual real issues like the GFA have nothing to do with it?

Yesterday Johnson announced that we were close to arriving at a solution. It's two weeks since he went to visit Merkel, and the EU have said nothing has been put forward by us. So Johnson is close to arriving at a solution, in his own head.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:10 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:A the leaked French memo on Friday revealed, Paris fears a resurgent, deregulated dynamic British economy…

That explains why hard core Francophile, recipient of the Legion D'honneur and pathological remoaner, Dominic Greive, is so hysteria riddled. The duplicitous , traitorous , anglophobic rat is concerned about the economic fortunes of his beloved country.

France.....

"...resurgent, deregulated dynamic British economy.." - tell us what that would look like for ordinary people.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:17 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:A the leaked French memo on Friday revealed, Paris fears a resurgent, deregulated dynamic British economy…

Do you have a link to this? I'm struggling to find it online anywhere.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:18 pm

AndrewJB wrote:"...resurgent, deregulated dynamic British economy.." - tell us what that would look like for ordinary people.

"Resurgent, deregulated and dynamic."

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:23 pm

aggi wrote:Do you have a link to this? I'm struggling to find it online anywhere.

Deutsche Bank Chief Economist on No Deal
http://www.teoti.com/politics/160394-de ... -deal.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:26 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Deutsche Bank Chief Economist on No Deal
http://www.teoti.com/politics/160394-de ... -deal.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks but I meant the leaked French memo, not DB.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:30 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:"Resurgent, deregulated and dynamic."

No holidays, no pensions, no working rights, no maternity rights, no NHS, no income support, no care for the elderly, no good schools, no university places, no parks, no community centres, no public transport, no environmental rules, no food safety standards, no decent standards of living - unless you can personally afford it.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:32 pm

aggi wrote:Thanks but I meant the leaked French memo, not DB.

"Deutsche Bank’s chief economist, David Folkerts-Landau, not only says that over the medium and long-term a ‘No Deal’ Brexit will make no difference to the British economy, he says an inadequate deal which constrained the British economy would be “a second best solution”. Confirming what many in Downing Street believe, namely that even without the back-stop, May’s regulatory-aligned deal would have detrimentally constrained the dynamic British economy. So-called “regulatory alignment” is an EU imposed constraint on unleashing the British economy to out compete turgid EU rivals. As the leaked French memo on Friday revealed, Paris fears a resurgent, deregulated dynamic British economy…"