AndrewJB wrote:Some of the 'glass half full' material on here about Johnson really illustrates how far people can stretch to catch a feel of positivity. In some ways it's Johnson's own positive vibes rubbing off.
He was the only one of the leadership candidates to say - absolutely - that we will leave on 31st October. All the others had caveats of one sort or another. Now you could say that if he doesn't achieve this, it won't be his fault. But then perhaps he shouldn't have made that pledge? It's not just the dishonesty, or in his case the breaking of a cast iron pledge as he did about the Heathrow runway, but what kind of political mind does he have to be so easily outplayed as he has over the last few days? His promise to the country was that of a chancer. A throw of the dice, and if you look deeper into this - that he set the country on a course to leave with no deal and kind of threw everything at it, underhanded or not. The sort of person who does this doesn't really consider consequences. Not a wise and steady hand on the tiller of the state. As for his negotiations with the EU to avoid no deal - well that appears to be the square root of nothing. From Cummings saying the talks were a sham, to Johnson himself being unable to provide details, to the EU showing the UK position to be just May's deal with the backstop scratched out - nothing new or promising has been delivered by him.
I think if we reach the end of October, and Johnson hasn't taken us out of the EU, the Brexit Party will get a big boost in the polls. Some people on here have said - it won't be his fault - but just as it was his promise, it will also have to be his failure.
New ICM poll just released shows why Boris Johnson wants a cut and run election.
If Election BEFORE 31st Oct:
If Election AFTER 31st Oct:
On the top figures BJ and the Cons could probably get a fair majority,not huge but enough to validate going to the polls.
The lower figures will almost certainly lead to another hung parliament,there isn't any info on the other parties but you'd presume the Lib Dems would sweep up most of the remainder,and clearly in Scotland the SNP will top 50 seats again.
Assuming the Labour strategists are abreast of these polls,it would be madness for them to consent to a GE anytime soon,i can't see the other opposition parties giving way either,their positions are clear regarding a no deal,Boris is the one who will have to explain why there's been no progress,i'm sure he'll try to blame the HOC for his own shortcomings,but the excuses are growing more hollow by the day.