Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

You'd really hate that outcome, wouldn't you?? After 3 years of being told we're too thick to vote, us leavers are capable of anything!

Except leaving

I'm loving Boris Johnson in power. I thought May constantly getting defeated was funny but Boris smashing up his own party while the opposition and indeed the rest of the world look on in total bewilderment is beyond it.

I'm sure a Farage government would take ridiculousness to never before dreamed of levels.

[Lancasterclaret]

As I understand it, because parliament is not sitting, that can't happen.

(Please understand this is all in the air, and that nothing is certain, here.)

Surely it would wait till parliament sat again?

And Johnson resigning would be another "going down in history for all the wrong reasons"

[If it be your will]

You back Corbyn, and even you think he would lose!?!

I'm not sure he would, because it would be blatantly obvious what Johnson was trying to do.

With the current parliamentary make-up, surely Corbyn would lose a confidence vote, wouldn't he? He only has 248 MPs, how could he win a confidence vote? Look, anything is possible right now, but holding together a coalition when you only have 248 MPs seems very unlikely to me.

[Mala591]

I think you miss the important part that the EU will not offer a compromise whilst we insist on our red lines. If a Labour or unity govt got in and looked at negotiating a deal based more around the CU then im sure the EU would be open for new talks and a potential compromise.

You are making the same mistake/misunderstanding that many Labour MPs (including Julie Cooper) have made. The Withdrawal Agreement must first be passed before we move on to decide whether to stay in a customs union or not.

[Lancasterclaret]

With the current parliamentary make-up, surely Corbyn would lose a confidence vote, wouldn't he? He only has 248 MPs, how could he win a confidence vote? Look, anything is possible right now, but holding together a coalition when you only have 248 MPs seems very unlikely to me.

That coalition only has to hold together for long enough to make sure an election happens after Nov 1st.

Thats tough no doubt, but its not impossible with what is at stake.

[If it be your will]

Surely it would wait till parliament sat again?

And Johnson resigning would be another "going down in history for all the wrong reasons"

Again, no-one is certain. But the PM has to request the extension. If Boris resigns, he's not PM. Parliament is shut, so another government cannot gain the confidence of the house. So someone has to be made PM, in order to request the extension - the Queen on the PM's recommendation, apparently.

Boris would remain Tory leader though, going into the election.

(Please accept these are bizarre circumstances. No one is able to say for sure what will happen if Boris resigns whilst Parliament is shut.)

[Lancasterclaret]

Again, no-one is certain. But the PM has to request the extension. If Boris resigns, he's not PM. Parliament is shut, so another government cannot gain the confidence of the house. So someone has to be made PM, in order to request the extension - the Queen on the PM's recommendation, apparently.

Boris would remain Tory leader though, going into the election.

(Please accept these are bizarre circumstances. No one is able to say for sure what will happen if Boris resigns whilst Parliament is shut.)

Oh I do!

I'm completely lost with all of this, but I haven't seen anything like that on my twitter feed, and there are the most devious parliamentarian watchers in the country on it.

I'll do some digging I think

[If it be your will]

That coalition only has to hold together for long enough to make sure an election happens after Nov 1st.

Thats tough no doubt, but its not impossible with what is at stake.

Ah, right. Yes. I get you now. What I meant was (in answer to dsr), if Boris resigns, who requests the extension? An early election is inevitable, though. It's just a question of who is on the plane to the EU if Boris resigns whilst Parliament is shut. Probably Corbyn.

[AlargeClaret]

Again, no-one is certain. But the PM has to request the extension. If Boris resigns, he's not PM. Parliament is shut, so another government cannot gain the confidence of the house. So someone has to be made PM, in order to request the extension - the Queen on the PM's recommendation, apparently.

Boris would remain Tory leader though, going into the election.

(Please accept these are bizarre circumstances. No one is able to say for sure what will happen if Boris resigns whilst Parliament is shut.)

So Boris has a way of staying on as Tory leader and fighting an election and still resigning as PM? Very interesting ,though it seems all sides are scouring the statutes for loopholes and in all fairness I can’t blame either side, though the pure desperation of remain may yet scupper their dream

[If it be your will]

Oh I do!

I'm completely lost with all of this, but I haven't seen anything like that on my twitter feed, and there are the most devious parliamentarian watchers in the country on it.

I'll do some digging I think

Start here, and let me know what you find out elsewhere:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -extension" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[If it be your will]

So Boris has a way of staying on as Tory leader and fighting an election and still resigning as PM? Very interesting ,though it seems all sides are scouring the statutes for loopholes and in all fairness I can’t blame either side, though the pure desperation of remain may yet scupper their dream

It seems so!

But please, I'm not staking my life on any of this. Nobody really has a clue what what's going to happen!

[android]

Start here, and let me know what you find out elsewhere:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -extension" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks. Didn't realise one of my outcomes (PM Corbyn makes the extension request) was already out there! Crazy times which our children & grandchildren will analyse for years - hope they can live with us...

[Devils_Advocate]

You are making the same mistake/misunderstanding that many Labour MPs (including Julie Cooper) have made. The Withdrawal Agreement must first be passed before we move on to decide whether to stay in a customs union or not.

Yes but a big part of the objection to the WA is due to the PD May set out alongside it. The EU are open to new talks on the PD and should this be changed to align more towards a CU style brexit then a lot of issues and objections to the WA will subside.

I think with the current make up of the House it will probably need to go to a second public vote or a GE to give clarity on what kind of Brexit (if any at all now) the country wants to pursue.

But that doesn't mean that the only we to leave is with No Deal just that if we are going to leave it is now obvious that we are going to have to take more time on this, will have to work cross party (like should have been done years ago) and probably look to get clarity from the public either by a public vote or GE.

We have wasted years by the Tories ERG driven Brexit agenda trying to force us down a specific hard line path and now it has finally unravelled we are unfortunately have to almost start from scratch

[Lancasterclaret]

Start here, and let me know what you find out elsewhere:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -extension" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://twitter.com/cgwOMT/status/1169917715676585985" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


This guy knows his stuff, and no mention of it as one of the possible three options.

[dsr]

https://twitter.com/cgwOMT/status/1169917715676585985


This guy knows his stuff, and no mention of it as one of the possible three options.

I'm surprised by Chris White's statement in his PS that "there must always be a PM.

"A quick PS: a few people are suggesting the PM could resign on 18th meaning there is no one to send the extension to the EU under the Benn-Burt legislation. There must always be a PM, and if the Bill passed that PM must comply with the law."

That surely can't be true? No-one can be forced to be PM against his or her will. If the PM dies, then there is no PM until another one is appointed - their is no automatic succession like there is for the Monarch. So if Boris resigns now or on the 18th, what happens next? Especially if no PM can gain the support of the House?

[AndrewJB]

You are making the same mistake/misunderstanding that many Labour MPs (including Julie Cooper) have made. The Withdrawal Agreement must first be passed before we move on to decide whether to stay in a customs union or not.

A withdrawal agreement can include us staying in the customs union. The only reason May's doesn't is because she said she didn't want to stay in one, and the free trade agreement has to be negotiated separately.

[aggi]

I think a lot of people are overestimating the impact that Brexit will have on a general election.

Obviously the people posting on here are very interested in Brexit but, in reality, a lot of people don't care that much either way.

[Spijed]

With regards to resignations is it legally possible for a Prime minister to resign then be re-instated?

If so, what would be a time period?

[Spijed]

I think a lot of people are overestimating the impact that Brexit will have on a general election.

Obviously the people posting on here are very interested in Brexit but, in reality, a lot of people don't care that much either way.

That's why I think Labour will hold onto most of their seats in the North, because of issues such as the NHS etc.

[Greenmile]

You'd really hate that outcome, wouldn't you?? After 3 years of being told we're too thick to vote, us leavers are capable of anything!

Does anyone remember when iibyw used to be left-wing?

It’s doing funny things to folk, this Brexit nonsense.

[Lancasterclaret]

I think a lot of people are overestimating the impact that Brexit will have on a general election.

Obviously the people posting on here are very interested in Brexit but, in reality, a lot of people don't care that much either way.

The Peterborough by-election was the clincher for me.

Brexit Party couldn't win, with Lab having lost the MP and in loads of trouble with the anti-semitism debate and still a fairly comfortable hold.

The Brexit Party need time to get activists on the ground and to become a proper political party. They haven't got that, plus their recruitment of PPC is less than ideal.

And if the BP don't make inroads in the north and the midlands, the Tory implosion in Scotland, London and the SW will stop Johnson winning.

[dsr]

With regards to resignations is it legally possible for a Prime minister to resign then be re-instated?

If so, what would be a time period?

Yes. Palmerston resigned and was reinstated three times. Harold Wilson was the most recent, resigning in 1970 and reinstated in 1974. But there's no reason why the PM can't resign on Thursday and be reappointed on Friday if the Queen believes that he has the support of the House (though I suspect there would have to be a longer hiatus because the House would need to give a formal vote of confidence).

But if Boris decides to resign, and the House (unlikely!) decides after a few days that they do want him after all, he can be reappointed.

[Spijed]

Just from the BBC

Opposition parties agree not to agree with the PM:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49609677" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lancasterclaret]

A lot more worryingly, Johnston will refuse to write to the EU to request an extension

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status ... 6558881792" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Guess now its down to how much you value the rule of law.

[JohnMcGreal]

So it looks like Johnson has completely boxed himself in and only has three options:

1. Break his promise
2. Break the law
3. Resign

Have I missed anything?

[dsr]

A lot more worryingly, Johnston will refuse to write to the EU to request an extension

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status ... 6558881792" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Guess now its down to how much you value the rule of law.

What's the sanction? I suspect that what Parliament will have to do is replace him. I doubt that any criminal offence would be committed. I know logic has flied out the window anyway, but for Parliament to vote down the government's flagship legislation but not to have a vote of no confidence in the PM defies all logic; so does the PM's decision not to resign.

What might happen is that Johnson (not Johnston) puts in the Queen's Speech some statement that reverses the effect of Benn's Bill. Then if the Queen's Speech is passed, he doesn't have to do it; if it isn't, he surely is de facto no longer PM. More constitutional 'who knowses'.

[Lancasterclaret]

What's the sanction? I suspect that what Parliament will have to do is replace him. I doubt that any criminal offence would be committed. I know logic has flied out the window anyway, but for Parliament to vote down the government's flagship legislation but not to have a vote of no confidence in the PM defies all logic; so does the PM's decision not to resign.

What might happen is that Johnson (not Johnston) puts in the Queen's Speech some statement that reverses the effect of Benn's Bill. Then if the Queen's Speech is passed, he doesn't have to do it; if it isn't, he surely is de facto no longer PM. More constitutional 'who knowses'.

No idea, but we are in uncharted waters here.

Thats why people are getting worried about where we are going, in case you haven't noticed!

[dsr]

No idea, but we are in uncharted waters here.

Thats why people are getting worried about where we are going, in case you haven't noticed!

Yes, I've noticed. That's why we need a general election, as is normal when Parliament is unable to function.

[martin_p]

What's the sanction? I suspect that what Parliament will have to do is replace him. I doubt that any criminal offence would be committed. I know logic has flied out the window anyway, but for Parliament to vote down the government's flagship legislation but not to have a vote of no confidence in the PM defies all logic; so does the PM's decision not to resign.

What might happen is that Johnson (not Johnston) puts in the Queen's Speech some statement that reverses the effect of Benn's Bill. Then if the Queen's Speech is passed, he doesn't have to do it; if it isn't, he surely is de facto no longer PM. More constitutional 'who knowses'.

You can’t just repeal a law in the Quenn’s Speech, it’s just a programme of what Her Majesty’s government intend to do in the next parliament. He can announce his intention to repeal the law, but won’t have the time or backing to do so. That’s why he needs a general election on 15th October (which he won’t get).

[Lancasterclaret]

Yes, I've noticed. That's why we need a general election, as is normal when Parliament is unable to function.

Well no, we need a 2nd ref to guarantee a clear result.

[dsr]

Well no, we need a 2nd ref to guarantee a clear result.

Another clear result. Nothing unclear about the first referendum.

[AlargeClaret]

If Boris resigns he keeps his “ do or die promise “ ,stays as Tory leader ( is that allowed?) and fights an election as party leader rather than PM? If he wins a GE all is well for Boris if he loses well he can say “ I did what I said /could “ and sail off into the sunset or Richmond on Thames and get down to business with his not unpleasant piece of totty.

[Lancasterclaret]

Another clear result. Nothing unclear about the first referendum.

Only if you've just woken up after a three year sleep!

Or you just ignore everything that isn't what you want to hear.

[Lancasterclaret]

Jesus, the Conservatives have completely lost the plot.

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status ... 9693842433" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AlargeClaret]

Only if you've just woken up after a three year sleep!

Or you just ignore everything that isn't what you want to hear.

God almighty was the referendum result not clear enough??

[BleedingClaret]

Well no, we need a 2nd ref to guarantee a clear result.

A Scottish Independance Vote would be required first.

[Lancasterclaret]

God almighty was the referendum result not clear enough??

Hey lads, you can pretend that the only reason we haven't left yet is whatever gets you through the day, but that doesn't change reality.

For what seems like the millionth time on here, this is reality.

Time to deal with it

EDIT - an GE is fine, as long as it results in a clear result from a clear manifesto. Anyone want to bet that won't happen again?

[Stalbansclaret]

How will an election help ? Surely it will only confirm the existence of two sizeable factions which broadly favour either "Remain" or "Leave". Even a second referendum would only do this. The idea that the first referendum , with 48% against,was decisive (and a mandate for something as crazily risky as a 'No deal" Brexit ...hello, Irish border anyone ?) is just totally crackers.

[ClaretAndJew]

THE SINGLE BIGGEST EXPRESSION OF DEMOCRACY

[dsr]

How will an election help ? Surely it will only confirm the existence of two sizeable factions which broadly favour either "Remain" or "Leave". Even a second referendum would only do this. The idea that the first referendum , with 48% against,was decisive (and a mandate for something as crazily risky as a 'No deal" Brexit ...hello, Irish border anyone ?) is just totally crackers.

An election might break the current status quo where we have a de facto government (Parliament is in effect the government) that is unable to make policy on anything except Brexit, and their policy on Brexit is to keep the status quo whereby no-one knows what is happening and no-one is willing to make decisions to change it. Another election may keep it this way, but on the other hand it gives the chance of appointing a government (pro or against Brexit) that actually wants to do something.

[elwaclaret]

Ive found the post you made a couple of weeks ago where Clark was mentioned and remembered that post as when you posted again it was in my mind and made me think to ask. In that post you said you'd predicted it back when Johnson got elected which is the one I was looking for you to bump.

To be honest though I remembered it wrongly thinking you had predicted it months and months ago and not just back in July so not as bold prediction but fair play for calling anything right in these strange times

Could be that I’m thinking of but they will be similar musings as events unfold. I’m cheering for Boris at the moment because he is an underdog given an impossible situation to deal with, and so I’m looking closely at how it is all being spun and picking up routes that are not being considered by Remain, or mentioned by the Government reps on programmes and looking for the next unmentioned attack trench as the most likely route BJ is looking at. Nothing more manipulative or devious than that.

Knowing that nothing I say on a message board matters, though at times I’ve been closer to the money than I expected has at times surprised even me.

My head will be in dusty books for at least the next ten years, so my earning potential and lifestyle will be little effected either way. I just like pulling arguments to pieces and reassembling them in a different order, unfortunately with Brexit, everyone has made it a personal crusade to take sides. I’m Brexit, but my life will not change... like I said I’m 60/40, but despite my interest... It is mainly how this is going to play out to history, so I stay close to events, because one day I will be in a lecture theatre when this all becomes lecture material.... I need to know all sides, which is why I like to have sensible arguments with remainders where it is allowed, until the witch hunters inevitably arrive... when I tend to leave the nonsense.

Funnily enough yesterday evening I suggested insulting the EU carrying out parliaments wishes.... low and behold on Newsnight they suggested he could just not send a Commissioner to the EU.... automatic expulsion.... I’m counting that as another route identified, although the journo spotted it too. Lol

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

An election might break the current status quo where we have a de facto government (Parliament is in effect the government) that is unable to make policy on anything except Brexit, and their policy on Brexit is to keep the status quo whereby no-one knows what is happening and no-one is willing to make decisions to change it. Another election may keep it this way, but on the other hand it gives the chance of appointing a government (pro or against Brexit) that actually wants to do something.

There has to be an election now, sooner or not much later.

Johnson has to go to brussels and ask for the extension or resign, if he resigns somebody else has to do it.

The new Brexit date is 31st January now if the EU grants it.

[RingoMcCartney]

PostTue Sep 03, 2019 11:46 am

Labour -


1 "We want to secure a deal that protects jobs and the economy."



2 "Then we'll put it to the people in a confirmatory vote."



3 "Then we'll campaign to Remain!"!



Labour - actually prepared to shoot themselves in both feet!

BBC Question Time Tuesday Sep 03 approx 11.00 pm

Fiona Bruce , to Emily Thornbury,

"So let me get this right, Emily. Your stance on brexit is this. You plan to go to Brussels, to negotiate a deal?"

"Then you'll hold a 2nd referendum."

"And in that referendum, you'll campaign against you're own deal!!!!!?????"

Mystic McCartney strikes again!!

[dsr]

There has to be an election now, sooner or not much later.

Johnson has to go to brussels and ask for the extension or resign, if he resigns somebody else has to do it.

The new Brexit date is 31st January now if the EU grants it.

If that's all that happens, there's not too much damage. It just delays it by three months, which could probably be put to good use in making the further preparations for exit that Theresa May (and Philip Hammond) deliberately failed to do.

[SonofPog]

Another clear result. Nothing unclear about the first referendum.

Unfortunately there IS a lot unclear from the 1st result. SBEODE or not.

Yes, leave won 52% of the vote, a marginal victory. Unfortunately, that 52% have never been able to agree on exactly what they meant by leave. To be able to command the full support of that 52%. Let alone be able to get it through Parliament.

You had the land of milk and honey that was promised, that got 52%
a Deal, which would be the easiest in history. Which turned out to be TM's which satisfied no one.

And now No Deal. Which the vast majority of the country don't want, has been voted out by the HOC at least three times, that no one has had a chance to vote for..... and yet is somehow the preferred option of our currently minority, unelected Pre-Minister.

[RingoMcCartney]

Well no, we need a 2nd ref to guarantee a clear result.

dsr wrote:
Another clear result. Nothing unclear about the first referendum.


AlargeClaret wrote:
God almighty was the referendum result not clear enough??

Only if you've just woken up after a three year sleep!

Or you just ignore everything that isn't what you want to hear.

Presumably you were fast asleep when the result that 17,400,000 had voted to leave, and 16,100,00 had voted to Remain!?

Or is that the result isn't what you wanted to hear!!

You liberal "Democrats" and real democracy eh!? What yer like!

[RingoMcCartney]

If remoaners are so so convinced that the country doesn't want parliament to push through leaving without a deal. Then lets have a general election to decide whether or not it approves of a parliament forcing, (WITHOUT A MANDATE TO DO SO) a PM to do something against his wishes.

Last week -

"Its a coup!!! Its a coup!!!

Theres no mandate for no deal

We want an election right now!!"

This week -

"We know there's zero electoral mandate for it, but go to brussels PM, and ask for an extension , and meanwhile take no deal out of your negotiating position"

Still want that election?

"Erm, no thanks it's a trap"

You could always put a simple one liner in to ensure the PM isn't allowed to set the trap?

"Erm, no we've thought about it, and you know when we previously said, you cant have too much democracy. Well, erm you can really. Well you can have the wrong kind of democracy. Yeah! That's right! It's the wrong kind!"

[RingoMcCartney]

Does anyone remember when iibyw used to be left-wing?

It’s doing funny things to folk, this Brexit nonsense.

It really is " doing funny things to folk, this Brexit nonsense." You're absolutely 100% correct.

You seem to have forgotten that you can be left wing and a brexiteer.

There are 5,000,000 labour / Leave voters.



Oh, and have you heard of this guy?






Jeremy Corbyn. I believe he's left of centre and always been against the EU.

[Bordeauxclaret]

YESSSSSS Friday afternoon Ringo.

The best Ringo, especially when things have gone tits up again.

[dsr]

Unfortunately there IS a lot unclear from the 1st result. SBEODE or not.

Yes, leave won 52% of the vote, a marginal victory. Unfortunately, that 52% have never been able to agree on exactly what they meant by leave. To be able to command the full support of that 52%. Let alone be able to get it through Parliament.

You had the land of milk and honey that was promised, that got 52%
a Deal, which would be the easiest in history. Which turned out to be TM's which satisfied no one.

And now No Deal. Which the vast majority of the country don't want, has been voted out by the HOC at least three times, that no one has had a chance to vote for..... and yet is somehow the preferred option of our currently minority, unelected Pre-Minister.

There's no doubt what we voted for. We voted to leave the EU, under the terms of leaving then on offer via Article 50. which means that the two sides had 2 years to negotiate the deal, and if they can't find one, we leave without a deal. Those are the specific rules on which we voted, and we voted out.