Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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Spijed
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spijed » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:11 pm

What do people think about today's court proceedings and how they went?

nil_desperandum
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:13 pm

Clarets4me wrote:Here's my thoughts ...

The Labour party will probably still win, with a much reduced majority. Their core Asian heritage vote will hold up, but they will lose votes from strong Remainers, due to their obfuscation over Brexit. These will go to the Lib Dems,

The Lib-Dems would finish third with Gordon Birtwistle standing, attracting strong Remainers from Labour as above.
Why on earth would any remain voter in Burnley vote Lib Dem??
It's obvious that there will be tactical voting on Brexit lines. Any Labour supporter who is against a "No deal" brexit will vote to keep the Brexit Party out. Libs can't beat Labour in Burnley at present, so it would be an act of stupidity for a Labour remainer to vote Lib Dem and thus increase the possibility of the Brexit Party winning due to tactical voting by Leave Tories and labour "leavers".
Essentially anyone who analyses this will conclude that there can only be one winner out of Labour and BP, (in Burnley) and since brexit is such a divisive issue most won't want to waste their vote.
It's for this reason that I've always thought that a 2nd referendum would be a more sensible option than a General Election which would be hijacked by brexit and not focus on the really important issues that governments are normally elected on.
Just imagine if Burnley got a brexit MP, a workable Tory majority in the Commons and an extreme right wing austere Conservative government for 5 years following the policies of people like Rees-Mogg, Redwood, Patel and Gove.

taio
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:18 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Why do you blame her that brexit hasn't happened yet, when the blame lies squarely with the government?
I clearly didn't say she was to blame. That would be ridiculous. Just like your suggestion is. There was an exchange about Cooper. I was merely pointing out that she's a shite MP for Burnley for more reasons than Brexit.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Clarets4me » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:49 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Why on earth would any remain voter in Burnley vote Lib Dem??
It's obvious that there will be tactical voting on Brexit lines. Any Labour supporter who is against a "No deal" brexit will vote to keep the Brexit Party out. Libs can't beat Labour in Burnley at present, so it would be an act of stupidity for a Labour remainer to vote Lib Dem and thus increase the possibility of the Brexit Party winning due to tactical voting by Leave Tories and labour "leavers".
Essentially anyone who analyses this will conclude that there can only be one winner out of Labour and BP, (in Burnley) and since brexit is such a divisive issue most won't want to waste their vote.
It's for this reason that I've always thought that a 2nd referendum would be a more sensible option than a General Election which would be hijacked by brexit and not focus on the really important issues that governments are normally elected on.
Just imagine if Burnley got a brexit MP, a workable Tory majority in the Commons and an extreme right wing austere Conservative government for 5 years following the policies of people like Rees-Mogg, Redwood, Patel and Gove.
The question was " what do people think will happen ? ", I tried to answer it with some reasons ... Labour's policy on Brexit is a complete mess, the Lib-Dems have a clear policy, which will attract headlines and some voters ..

What do you think will happen ? You express horror at a " Brexit Party " MP, but do you think Julie Cooper will match her 18,000+ votes last time ?

aggi
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:56 pm

dsr wrote:I believe that it costs about £6k per child per year to run a state school. So make it easier to run schools. Let private individuals, companies, charities, run schools much more easily, and let the government pay the fees by way of vouchers. An average class of 20 could raise £100k per annum, enough to pay a full time teacher and have a fair bit of cash for other expenses. Let the facilities take second place to a work ethos, to discipline, to tolerance, to a smaller school perhaps where everyone knows everyone (especially - all the teachers know all the pupils) rather than the ginormous sausage factories that are currently in vogue. A school of 200 pupils, two classes of 20 per year, say 14 full time teachers plus a head, income £1m per year. Commercial? Possibly. Look at this sort of thing. Look at big schools, small schools, parent-run schools. Above all, look at keeping the Education Authorities out of them and let the parents be the ultimate arbiters. If schools are popular with parents, let them fly. The more involved the parents are, the better.

And if the vastly rich FA could be persuaded to spend say 10% of its annual income, which means more than £200m per year, on school playing fields and other school infrastructure (to replace the playing fields that have been scandalously sold by governments of all colours), so much the better.
If you believe that all the teaching staff it takes to teach your 10 classes is 14 teachers and a head you're way off.

Given you started this by talking about how schools weren't necessarily challenging the higher level pupils then who will be teaching the other pupils whilst the teacher is spending 1:1 time with either high achievers at one end or low ability at the other?

Your idea is nice but your figures are way off and it's very simplistic.

The bigger issue is what AndrewJB referred to, we have a situation at the moment where if you can pay a lot of money you can give your child a huge advantage for the rest of their life. You talk about PMs only coming from private school. Do you really think people such as Cameron or Johnson attained what they did solely through merit? That if they'd been born and brought up on the Broadwater Farm estate and gone to the local school they'd still have ended up as PM.

Obviously for the minority that are perpetuating this system it is in their interest to keep it going. For the majority though there are plenty of studies showing that grammar schools and private schools inhibit social mobility. Is it really the best for the country that only those who can afford it can get on in life, that a lot of those with the ability but not the money can't make the best use of their abilities?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:56 pm

Burnley voted 66.6% leave, many many of those people will have voted for Labour at the last election and will not in the next election like me.
It just depends how many defect to the Brexit party, as I firmly believe we will still be in the EU at the next election.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:05 pm

When you look at 2010, 2015 and 2017, Burnley have had a large number of voters moving around parties. 2015 UKIP got close to 7,000 votes.
I can definitely see enough evidence of votes moving around to make it a possibility of a Brexit party win.

2015. Election result , Julie Cooper, Labour - 14,951 Gordon Birtwistle, Liberal Democrat - 11,707 Tom Commis, UK Independence Party - 6,864 Sarah Cockburn-Price, Conservative - 5,374 Mike Hargreaves, Green Party - 850


Candidate Party Votes Vote (%) Change (%)
Birtwistle, Gordon LD 14,932 35.7 12.0
Cooper, Julie Lab 13,114 31.3 -7.1
Ali, Richard Con 6,950 16.6 5.8
Wilkinson, Sharon BNP 3,747 9.0 9.0
Brown, Andrew * Ind 1,876 4.5 4.5
Rawsthorn, Richard * UKIP 929 2.2 1.3
Hennessey, Andrew * Ind 297 0.7 0.7

nil_desperandum
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:23 pm

Clarets4me wrote:The question was " what do people think will happen ? ", I tried to answer it with some reasons ... Labour's policy on Brexit is a complete mess, the Lib-Dems have a clear policy, which will attract headlines and some voters ..

What do you think will happen ? You express horror at a " Brexit Party " MP, but do you think Julie Cooper will match her 18,000+ votes last time ?
I didn't in fact express any kind of horror at a brexit Party MP. I merely expressed my opinion that it would be a straight fight between BP and Labour in Burnley, with a lot of "leave" people switching to BP from Con and Lab, and remainers from Lib and Con switching to Lab as the only party that could beat the BP.
I agree that Lib policy is much clearer than Lab, but if you are concerned about a "no deal" brexit, then as I said, it would make no sense at all to cast your vote for a party that can't win.
As for who would win in Burnley, I think it most likely that Labour would hang on, but it's impossible to predict for 2 main reasons:
1. It would depend on the context and timing of the election. (e.g. had Johnson already signed a "May type" deal, is Johnson still PM).
2. To what extent trad Labour voters would move to BP, and to what extent remain voters of all political colours, (inc. Green) would lend their vote to Labour to ensure that the BP fails to snatch the seat.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:25 pm

aggi wrote:If you believe that all the teaching staff it takes to teach your 10 classes is 14 teachers and a head you're way off.

Given you started this by talking about how schools weren't necessarily challenging the higher level pupils then who will be teaching the other pupils whilst the teacher is spending 1:1 time with either high achievers at one end or low ability at the other?

Your idea is nice but your figures are way off and it's very simplistic.

The bigger issue is what AndrewJB referred to, we have a situation at the moment where if you can pay a lot of money you can give your child a huge advantage for the rest of their life. You talk about PMs only coming from private school. Do you really think people such as Cameron or Johnson attained what they did solely through merit? That if they'd been born and brought up on the Broadwater Farm estate and gone to the local school they'd still have ended up as PM.

Obviously for the minority that are perpetuating this system it is in their interest to keep it going. For the majority though there are plenty of studies showing that grammar schools and private schools inhibit social mobility. Is it really the best for the country that only those who can afford it can get on in life, that a lot of those with the ability but not the money can't make the best use of their abilities?
dsr solving a problem the experts have been grappling with by being over simplistic? I’m shocked!!
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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:49 pm

It’s a bit simplistic to hold a strong argument however it shows it’s possible if the stars align.
The GE campaign would be key, assuming we are still in the EU.

Total votes
2010. - 41,845
2015. - 39,746
2017. - 40,290

Labour lowest vote. 13,114
Con lowest vote. 5,374
Lib Dem lowest vote. 6,046
Total 24,534

That’s a possible floating vote of around 15,000.


I know holes can ripped into this but surprised me how many voters are moving parties.

Cooper has made herself massively unpopular with all the Labour voters I know.
Cons know they cannot win.
Remain voters might just flock to LD.

Wow, could be anybody’s!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by ClaretAL » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:53 pm

or Brexit Party come in and claim the 64% who voted leave and then they join with Conservative....

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:54 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:It’s a bit simplistic to hold a strong argument however it shows it’s possible if the stars align.
The GE campaign would be key, assuming we are still in the EU.

Total votes
2010. - 41,845
2015. - 39,746
2017. - 40,290

Labour lowest vote. 13,114
Con lowest vote. 5,374
Lib Dem lowest vote. 6,046
Total 24,534

That’s a possible floating vote of around 15,000.


I know holes can ripped into this but surprised me how many voters are moving parties.

Cooper has made herself massively unpopular with all the Labour voters I know.
Cons know they cannot win.
Remain voters might just flock to LD.

Wow, could be anybody’s!
Remain supporters aren’t going to flock to LD in constituencies where it may let BP or Tories in. Burnley may well be one such constituency

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:57 pm

martin_p wrote:Remain supporters aren’t going to flock to LD in constituencies where it may let BP or Tories in. Burnley may well be one such constituency
Flock might be. a bit strong I agree.
Also it depends on Labours policy come GE time, who has any idea what it will be. They have been all over the place so far.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:03 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:You mean one country has a veto to stop anything happening? What a good idea!

Do the UK not have one as well, one that would stop this EU Army, or more political integration, or whatever this weeks Brexit buzzword is?

This is what Luxembourg have said

"Uk wanted a last minute change to inside, but it was impossible because there wasn't the space and the time to set it up."

Again, the interpretation I'm reading is that the talks didn't go well, the UK is still wanting the unicorns you lot were promised in 2016 and rather than face the press (and the crowd), Johnson, who yesterday was compared to the Incredible hulk, turned out to be a lot less green and a lot more yellow and did a runner.

This deal isn't looking very likely is it?

And if you saw the three seperate links I gave you (all filmed live btw so no spin), you would have noticed that the Luxembourg PM was visibly frustrated at having to explain that its not his problem if the the UK can't provide detailed proposals and that they keep repeating the same words for the domestic audience back home.

Its pathetic.

And the likes of you lot let him get away with it.

I not 100% sure who you lot are by I think I understand your meaning, your problem is your lack of understanding of the overall situation we are ALL in, if you think the Lux PM was frustrated I can certainly guarantee you there are far more Brit's far more frustrated than him and the whole of the EU put together. (I exclude Remoaners in this statement)

Try looking at the Root Causes that got us to where we are today, I'll take an educated guess that a lot of people prior to any referendum in 2016 were so frustrated with the EU that they wanted to leave, please tell me I am wrong if you feel they were not. If you are in agreement, regardless of the last 3 years you should recognize that trying to blow out of all proportion what one little tin pot country leader feels then maybe you can recognize that I and millions of others simply don't care what you think about this miniscule bit of news means to you or any other of "You lot".

You simply don't believe in democracy and that is why so many are totally opposed to your way of thinking. I could write war and peace on this but have tried to explain snippits of what and how this negotiation called Brexit works but you have clearly proven you either can not understand or are simply not willing to understand.

martin_p
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:05 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:Flock might be. a bit strong I agree.
Also it depends on Labours policy come GE time, who has any idea what it will be. They have been all over the place so far.
I’m not sure the policies matter that much in some constituencies. I’d probably vote Lib Dem myself if I didn’t live in a constituency that is a straight fight between Tory and Labour. Even if Labour promise to deliver Brexit it won’t be as damaging as a Tory one is likely to be, especially with the ERG essentially running the show. So Labour will get my vote.

KateR
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:10 pm

AndrewJB wrote:This is what Cameron went to Brussels to request, along with what was agreed:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics- ... m-35622105" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"...so as to make it clear that the references to ever closer union do not apply to the United Kingdom." - it's right there in black and white. What Cameron failed to do while he was there was erode our in work benefits system for EU citizens (which would erode it generally for everyone). The Tories are not, and have never been for ordinary working people.
You lost me on your last sentence as to being a sensible debate and clearly showed your true colours. I stand by what I said, the EU could have easily made a few concessions and the UK would not have had a referendum and we would all be living in an alternative universe today. Also just as an aside mind you, you would be far more credible in your stance if you quoted from sources other than the BBC and the Guardian, perhaps you could add a few quotes from the Speaker just to drive home your point.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by bobinho » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:11 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Why do you blame her that brexit hasn't happened yet, when the blame lies squarely with the government?
It doesn’t lie squarely with the government. It lies squarely with parliament. If it was solely up to government to get us out, we’d be gone already. Far too many politicians in parliament busy skriking about not having a deal, then doing everything they can to remove the only bargaining chip we have left to get a reasonable deal. Makes no sense at all.

If we get a deal (I want one and it’s a really big if) the opposition parties that voted it thru parliament will spend the next five years complaining about it and blaming whichever government we have anyway.

Could do with another gunpowder plot, cos this load of wasters we have in the HoC right now aren’t worth ****, regardless of party affiliation.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:12 pm

I’ve been gone a day and have to say I’m very impressed that my short innocent sentence yesterday suggesting Cameron and Corbyn both similarly have no clue about the ordinary person, seems to have led to a huge debate about selective and private schooling.

Having gone to a rubbish school I chose to sacrifice my pension and savings so that I can send my child to an independent school. No doubt though that makes me a menace to society in the eyes of some. I would suggest that the nasty London-obsessed hypocrite Corbyn, who had a far more privileged upbringing than I had, has absolutely no idea about the lives of ordinary people like me and the choices I choose to make (I’m not poor thankfully, but I am sure as heck ordinary, I live in a small house on a medium income, prioritising a work life balance, with absolutely no prospect of inheriting anything).

Luckily after messing up school and missing out on university I knuckled down and learnt a few things, so I’m not complaining.

There are fewer and fewer defending him now, most have seen sense. At the same time, Johnson’s approval ratings go up. New poll today. Crisis, what crisis?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:14 pm

KateR wrote:I not 100% sure who you lot are by I think I understand your meaning, your problem is your lack of understanding of the overall situation we are ALL in, if you think the Lux PM was frustrated I can certainly guarantee you there are far more Brit's far more frustrated than him and the whole of the EU put together. (I exclude Remoaners in this statement)

Try looking at the Root Causes that got us to where we are today, I'll take an educated guess that a lot of people prior to any referendum in 2016 were so frustrated with the EU that they wanted to leave, please tell me I am wrong if you feel they were not. If you are in agreement, regardless of the last 3 years you should recognize that trying to blow out of all proportion what one little tin pot country leader feels then maybe you can recognize that I and millions of others simply don't care what you think about this miniscule bit of news means to you or any other of "You lot".

You simply don't believe in democracy and that is why so many are totally opposed to your way of thinking. I could write war and peace on this but have tried to explain snippits of what and how this negotiation called Brexit works but you have clearly proven you either can not understand or are simply not willing to understand.
I don’t think anyone cared less about the EU until Farage told them that all their ills (caused in reality by austerity) were down to the EU. UKIP had been going for years barely registering a vote, that’s how bothered people were about the EU until austerity hit.

taio
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:20 pm

martin_p wrote:I don’t think anyone cared less about the EU until Farage told them that all their ills (caused in reality by austerity) were down to the EU. UKIP had been going for years barely registering a vote, that’s how bothered people were about the EU until austerity hit.
This is utter bullshite. Plenty of people have been bothered for a long time in these parts about perceived EU immigration. Not that I agree with it because I feel the immigration argument has been well and truly overplayed but it's wrong to suggest it wasn't an issue. Nonsense to pin this on austerity.
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martin_p
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:22 pm

taio wrote:This is utter bullshite. Plenty of people have been bothered for a long time in these parts about perceived EU immigration. Not that I agree with it because I feel the immigration argument has been well and truly overplayed but it's wrong to suggest it wasn't an issue. Nonsense to pin this on austerity.
That wasn’t EU immigrants though was it, it was more to do with non EU immigrants.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:24 pm

martin_p wrote:That wasn’t EU immigrants though was it, it was more to do with non EU immigrants.
No, it was both.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:27 pm

taio wrote:No, it was both.
Ok, well at least you’ve expanded on your previous claim. But immigration in general is a wider issue than the EU. If Burnley is depending on leaving the EU to sort out a perceived problem with immigration in general it’s in for a shock.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:32 pm

martin_p wrote:Ok, well at least you’ve expanded on your previous claim. But immigration in general is a wider issue than the EU. If Burnley is depending on leaving the EU to sort out a perceived problem with immigration in general it’s in for a shock.
Of course it's a wider issue. But too many people clearly have a problem with freedom of movement applicable only to the EU. That's the point. That's why we are where we are. I happen not to have a problem with immigration. But a majority did. You suggesting it's a post austerity issue is a ******* joke.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:36 pm

taio wrote:Of course it's a wider issue. But too many people clearly have a problem with freedom of movement applicable only to the EU. That's the point. That's why we are where we are. I happen not to have a problem with immigration. But a majority did. You suggesting it's a post austerity issue is a ******* joke.
My suggestion is that UKIP lit the fires of widespread Euro scepticism and that they used the issues created by austerity as kindling.

UKIP had existed since 1993, but it’s only in 2013, three years after the start of austerity, that they broke through as a political force. That forced Cameron to soil himself which in turn led directly to him offering a referendum to try and nullify the perceived UKIP threat. Clearly there were pockets of EU haters before then but it was largely confined to an entertaining side show within Tory party ranks.
Last edited by martin_p on Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Elizabeth
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Elizabeth » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:37 pm

Why are some posters brainwashed by the media? Big article today for all to read claiming austerity was why people voted to leave.
Guess what? Yeh, a resident remoaner pushes that argument on here today.
Think for yourself!
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KateR
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:37 pm

Martin P, not only were people bothered about the EU but the government and DC were bothered, so much so he went to the EU with his begging bowl and got turned away with it empty. I would agree that UKIP were a non entity until election of MEP's where they did well as they did again this time round but as the Brexit Party, same leader, same ideas, different name. Yet this time around the election of these MEP's have thrown the major parties into a state of panic, which they will react to yet again. I would also totally agree that the EU were not the sole reason for all their ills but yet here we are today, the root causes are there for anyone to see.

The tide is somewhat changing as it will be to sides, not parties, that will fight out the next GE and basically on a single fundamental issue, leave or remain, Boris is already setting his stall out offering numerous side benefits for those in the middle of the debate. Further interesting developments are those parties wishing to align to prevent the unthinkable in there minds, this will be something I watch closely, particularly the two main leave parties. However it will be interesting to see the various remain factions and how they deal with there so called pact and whether a "Unity" party maybe born out of the chaos.

I did state on here at the last GE called by May that it was a single one critical choice in the vote, which was which side of Brexit are you on. Many on here were quick to deride my statement but are now themselves stating exactly the same thing since now the penny has dropped in terms of the only way to solve the issue of Brexit.

I also truly believe May would have gained a good majority if she had left everything else alone but with her wonderful advisors tried to slip in a couple of side bits hoping the public would not notice or ignore in order to emphasize the Brexit vote. History is there and clearly she failed miserably and she allowed people to be deflected from what should have been a single point vote, Boris appears to have learnt well as he is throwing in good reasons for people to vote for Brexit but still a long way to go even if time is short.
Last edited by KateR on Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.

martin_p
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:39 pm

Elizabeth wrote:Why are some posters brainwashed by the media? Big article today for all to read claiming austerity was why people voted to leave.
Guess what? Yeh, a resident remoaner pushes that argument on here today.
Think for yourself!
Haven’t read the article and have been expounding the view for the last five years or so. It’s hardly new, from me or anyone else.
Last edited by martin_p on Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:40 pm

KateR wrote:Martin P, not only were people bothered about the EU but the government and DC were bothered, so much so he went to the EU with his begging bowl and got turned away with it empty.
Yep, but that was after the start of austerity and explosion of UKIP.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:44 pm

martin_p wrote:My suggestion is that UKIP lit the fires of widespread Euro scepticism and that they used the issues created by austerity as kindling.

UKIP had existed since 1993, but it’s only in 2013, three years after the start of austerity, that they broke through as a political force. That forced Cameron to soil himself which in turn led directly to him offering a referendum to try and nullify the perceived UKIP threat. Clearly there were pockets of EU haters before then but it was largely confined to an entertaining side show within Tory party ranks.
Euro scepticism has been rife in the Conservative party for years. They delivered a referendum for those who wanted it.
If you think UKIP alone forced this issue you are living in a dream world.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:45 pm

martin_p wrote:Yep, but that was after the start of austerity and explosion of UKIP.

Explosion of UKIP, am sorry but a seriously overblown statement, how many MP's did the UK have in Parliament as a result of this explosion?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:45 pm

taio wrote:Euro scepticism has been rife in the Conservative party for years. They delivered a referendum for those who wanted it.
If you think UKIP alone forced this issue you are living in a dream world.
Without UKIP Cameroon would never have offered a referendum.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:47 pm

KateR wrote:Explosion of UKIP, am sorry but a seriously overblown statement, how many MP's did the UK have in Parliament as a result of this explosion?
I’m talking about MEPs. Cameron worries that would translate into votes in a general election taking previous Tory votes (remember there was no Tory majority at the time).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:47 pm

martin_p wrote:Without UKIP Cameroon would never have offered a referendum.
That's complete nonsense. It were major factions of the Conservative party that was the main driving force.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:51 pm

taio wrote:That's complete nonsense. It were major factions of the Conservative party that was the main driving force.
What, you mean the factions that had been there pretty much since we joined the EU? They were a small but noisy minority in the Tory party that were being managed, it’s UKIP that lit the blue touch paper. Euro sceptic Tory MPs are still Tory MPs getting Tory votes and contributing to a Tory majority. UKIP votes are not.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Quickenthetempo » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:51 pm

martin_p wrote:Ok, well at least you’ve expanded on your previous claim. But immigration in general is a wider issue than the EU. If Burnley is depending on leaving the EU to sort out a perceived problem with immigration in general it’s in for a shock.
I was talking to a high up person in government immigration and they stated the biggest problem the country faces with free movement is the Romanian crime gangs. Costing us 10s of millions a year apparently.
I've heard of the shop lifting gangs but didn't think it was as bad as was told.
Thankfully nobody I know has been the victim.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:52 pm

Martin P, again you're clearly missing the point and the root cause, UKIP would never have been a threat to anything if "people" had not voted for them, people did not vote for them thinking it would end austerity. The referendum came about because the people wanted it if the EU would not compromise, clearly they did not.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:55 pm

martin_p wrote:What, you mean the factions that had been there pretty much since we joined the EU? They were a small but noisy minority in the Tory party that were being managed, it’s UKIP that lit the blue touch paper. Euro sceptic Tory MPs are still Tory MPs getting Tory votes and contributing to a Tory majority. UKIP votes are not.
No I don't mean that. You completely underestimate and misunderstand the situation which was also Cameron's problem.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:56 pm

KateR wrote:Martin P, again you're clearly missing the point and the root cause, UKIP would never have been a threat to anything if "people" had not voted for them, people did not vote for them thinking it would end austerity. The referendum came about because the people wanted it if the EU would not compromise, clearly they did not.
UKIP had their big Euro election success before Cameron tried to negotiate with the EU, not after. Plus the referendum had already been promised before those negotiations too.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:56 pm

Occasionally I like to pull this thread back to Rowls' original post that you could tell how Brexit was going by the actions of some of the more "vocal" people on one side or another (obviously in Rowls' traditional even-handed manner he only focused on one side).

So here are a variety of Brexit supporters racially abusing Baroness Chakrabarti and talking about Muslims coming over here and chopping childrens' heads off
https://twitter.com/jasonnparkinson/sta ... 55073?s=21" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(As an aside, these people are going to be really ****** off when they realise that Brexit is going to just increase the numbers of the types of immigrant they clearly don't like.)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:57 pm

taio wrote:No I don't mean that. You completely underestimate and misunderstand the situation which was also Cameron's problem.
As I said, the problems in the Tory party had been managed for years. It was only after UKIP’s success that a referendum was promised.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:58 pm

aggi wrote:Occasionally I like to pull this thread back to Rowls' original post that you could tell how Brexit was going by the actions of some of the more "vocal" people on one side or another (obviously in Rowls' traditional even-handed manner he only focused on one side).

So here are a variety of Brexit supporters racially abusing Baroness Chakrabarti and talking about Muslims coming over here and chopping childrens' heads off
https://twitter.com/jasonnparkinson/sta ... 55073?s=21" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(As an aside, these people are going to be really ****** off when they realise that Brexit is going to just increase the numbers of the types of immigrant they clearly don't like.)
Are any of them naked?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RMutt » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:01 pm

I’m with martin-p on this. The Tories were worried about losing votes to UKIP. That was enough for euro sceptic Tories to be able to persuade Cameron to offer the referendum. Without the trouble making Farage and the support from The Mail and co there would never have been a vote. In fact I still maintain most people were not really that bothered about the EU.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Elizabeth » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:04 pm

Just a coincidence you used the argument today, eh.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:05 pm

martin_p wrote:As I said, the problems in the Tory party had been managed for years. It was only after UKIP’s success that a referendum was promised.
Nope, you are going round the bend if you think UKIP presented more of a problem to the Conservative party than the Conservative party itself. But that aside a referendum was in Cameron's manifesto which was voted upon and more crucially so was the 2016 referendum. That's the top and bottom of it. I don't like it but I've accepted it.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:08 pm

KateR wrote:Martin P, not only were people bothered about the EU but the government and DC were bothered, so much so he went to the EU with his begging bowl and got turned away with it empty. I would agree that UKIP were a non entity until election of MEP's where they did well as they did again this time round but as the Brexit Party, same leader, same ideas, different name. Yet this time around the election of these MEP's have thrown the major parties into a state of panic, which they will react to yet again. I would also totally agree that the EU were not the sole reason for all their ills but yet here we are today, the root causes are there for anyone to see.

The tide is somewhat changing as it will be to sides, not parties, that will fight out the next GE and basically on a single fundamental issue, leave or remain, Boris is already setting his stall out offering numerous side benefits for those in the middle of the debate. Further interesting developments are those parties wishing to align to prevent the unthinkable in there minds, this will be something I watch closely, particularly the two main leave parties. However it will be interesting to see the various remain factions and how they deal with there so called pact and whether a "Unity" party maybe born out of the chaos.

I did state on here at the last GE called by May that it was a single one critical choice in the vote, which was which side of Brexit are you on. Many on here were quick to deride my statement but are now themselves stating exactly the same thing since now the penny has dropped in terms of the only way to solve the issue of Brexit.

I also truly believe May would have gained a good majority if she had left everything else alone but with her wonderful advisors tried to slip in a couple of side bits hoping the public would not notice or ignore in order to emphasize the Brexit vote. History is there and clearly she failed miserably and she allowed people to be deflected from what should have been a single point vote, Boris appears to have learnt well as he is throwing in good reasons for people to vote for Brexit but still a long way to go even if time is short.
I agree, if she had not tried to attack pensioners she would have got a good majority.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:09 pm

martin_p wrote:UKIP had their big Euro election success before Cameron tried to negotiate with the EU, not after. Plus the referendum had already been promised before those negotiations too.
Martin P, now you are saying exactly what I said, I'm so pleased we can agree.

The "People" voted for UKIP as MEP's we are in full agreement. Cameron reacted, begged the EU, got nothing, referendum. I don't believe I ever said after, but if I did then I was wrong and was not my intention to say it. I did say that the People voted for Brexit Party as MEP's in the last election, same thing same ideals different name. Same result, main parties see Brexit Party as a big threat for the future, particularly in a GE but there is no evidence of this, probably to the contrary if the by-election recently conducted shows. However that also clearly showed that if the people who voted Tory had combined similarly they would have won, a quick peek in to the future perhaps.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Elizabeth » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:29 pm

14178

martin , your response doesn't do your credibility any good.

Look at it again , especially the 5 year bit. Then recall the year of the referendum.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:34 pm

martin_p wrote:You’re missing the point so spectacularly that you can only be trolling now. But just in case you aren’t I’ll summarise the point Lancaster made that you seem to be struggling with.

The Yellowhammer document released by the government was labelled ‘worse case scenario’. The very same document had been leaked to the press and sent to the Scottish government with the label ‘base case scenario’. The worry Lancaster was expressing is that the document released is in fact the base case scenario and that the document that actually represents a worse case scenario is still being kept from us. In summary, the government may be expecting the ‘worse case’ to be a lot worse than they are admitting.
Hi martin, why am I "missing the point?" Did you take a look at what Philip Aldrick wrote about Yellowhammer - and the Bank of England's most recent Brexit prediction?

Did you understand what I wrote about scenario planning? There's no point - and no one would waste their time doing it - to start with a "this is the best it will be case" and then call it your "base case" or to have a planning scenario that you call your "reasonable worst case" when you actually feel that there is an "even worst, very bad, case." These are all planning scenarios, it doesn't matter what you call them, it doesn't matter if you call them "good," "bad" and "ugly or, even, "Barnes," "Wood" and "Vydra" they are still only planning scenarios.....

And, as I posted earlier, it doesn't matter if you feel the same as Chicken Little (google is your friend!) and you feel the need to tell everyone that the sky is going to fall, it still won't result in the sky falling.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:37 pm

aggi wrote:I've fallen into the trap of crap Brexit analogies. Next I'll be trying to liken Brexit to a football match or buying a car.
No worries, aggi, we can all find ourselves in that cul de sac sometimes.

Now, remind me: how do you go to watch a football match and end up buying a beat up old car with no MOT? ;)

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