Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Mala591]

May's deal took us out of the single market, customs union, CAP, ECJ, Fishing Policy, ended free movement, and gave us two years to sort out a trade deal. The NI backstop was our idea, in order to maintain the integrity of the peace agreement, but then we're all told the technology to sort the border is close at hand, so should be no problem. As breaks go, May's deal goes further than what Labour would negotiate, or what I (given the choice) would vote for, and in fact goes further than what many in the leave campaign discussed (Norway, Norway plus, Canada plus, etc). How much harder do you want it to get?

A concise and accurate summary of the current 'draft' EU/UK withdrawal agreement.

I would class this as a 'medium' Brexit. No-deal Brexit is hard and Customs Union Brexit is soft.

I still feel that the 'medium' Brexit is the way forward and that the backstop can be removed by persuading the DUP to accept a EU/UK trade border down the middle of the Irish Sea.

[Lowbankclaret]

I have tried today having a read of the withdrawal agreement, I think I might need a lawyer to even try to understand it.

If anyone wants to have a look.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... pean-union" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lowbankclaret]

Juncker says we can have a deal before 31st Oct.

[Lowbankclaret]

You do understand the very first day of "No Deal", the status of European citizens, the divorce settlement and the Irish border will still be the sticking point to any deal with the EU right?

Just checking, because there does seem to be a narrative amongst Brexiteers that this magically all goes away if we leave without a deal on Oct 31st

The hard work would start the day after.
However in pressure situations I find things get done.

[AndyClaret]

This would be hilarious, if a deal is agreed and the EU don't offer an extension giving MP's the choice of the deal, or no deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49761582" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[martin_p]

The hard work would start the day after.
However in pressure situations I find things get done.

But it was the threat of no deal Brexit that was going to get us that great deal in the first place wasn’t it. Once that bomb has been detonated what do we have left?

[martin_p]

A concise and accurate summary of the current 'draft' EU/UK withdrawal agreement.

I would class this as a 'medium' Brexit. No-deal Brexit is hard and Customs Union Brexit is soft.

I still feel that the 'medium' Brexit is the way forward and that the backstop can be removed by persuading the DUP to accept a EU/UK trade border down the middle of the Irish Sea.

No, May’s deal, after the backstop (or before if not needed) is hard Brexit. Here’s how hard Brexit was defined at the start of all this.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/what-is-hard-brexit/

[AlargeClaret]

I’m quite amazed that Juncker has actually appeared sober the last couple of weeks

[TheFamilyCat]

This would be hilarious, if a deal is agreed and the EU don't offer an extension giving MP's the choice of the deal, or no deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49761582" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Will Noel be hosting?

[Lowbankclaret]

E60EABAD-68E0-487C-ADC3-24F3DAB4DA63.png (1.29 MiB) Viewed 1992 times

[Lowbankclaret]

But it was the threat of no deal Brexit that was going to get us that great deal in the first place wasn’t it. Once that bomb has been detonated what do we have left?

I wanted to provide a link but cannot understand how to do it!, sorry.

Do search for “don’t reduce uk to a vassal state” German MEP explaining exactly why the EU should give us a deal and the EU tactics to keep us in a customs union.

Brexbox 7 is also available.

[nil_desperandum]

This would be hilarious, if a deal is agreed and the EU don't offer an extension giving MP's the choice of the deal, or no deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49761582" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Why would it be hilarious?
Very little chance - tiny- that MPs would back no deal, so we'd end up with what would effectively be May's deal which very few people think is a good one for the UK.
Of course it would satisfy Boris's pledge to leave by Oct 31st, but would anyone be really happy with it?
In common with a lot of remainers, I have generally felt that a compromise on the lines f May's deal is the only real option, and I would support it, but I think that most of the 17.4 million that we keep hearing about would be unhappy, and I don't see the brexit party supporting it. So we'd have a deal of sorts, but the Brexit party and ERG wouldn't go away, and there'd continue to be huge divisions in Parliament and the country as a whole.
I don't find that so hilarious myself.
And what would happen to the Tory Party?
Labour could vaguely unite round the "May" deal if it comes to a straight choice between "May" and "no deal", but how would Johnson get the likes of Cash, Bone, Redwood, Frankwer, Baker and Jenkins to toe the party line and canvas for it at a Gen Election?
The only other option of course, would be to revoke, but I don't think that that would have hilarious consequences either.

[AndyClaret]

Why would it be hilarious?
Very little chance - tiny- that MPs would back no deal, so we'd end up with what would effectively be May's deal which very few people think is a good one for the UK.
Of course it would satisfy Boris's pledge to leave by Oct 31st, but would anyone be really happy with it?
In common with a lot of remainers, I have generally felt that a compromise on the lines f May's deal is the only real option, and I would support it, but I think that most of the 174 million that we keep hearing about would be unhappy, and I don't see the brexit party supporting it. So we'd have a deal of sorts, but the Brexit party and ERG wouldn't go away, and there'd continue to be huge divisions in Parliament and the country as a whole.
I don't find that so hilarious myself.
And what would happen to the Tory Party?
Labour could vaguely unite round the "May" deal if it comes to a straight choice between "May" and "no deal", but how would Johnson get the likes of Cash, Bone, Redwood, Frankwer, Baker and Jenkins to toe the party line and canvas for it at a Gen Election?
the only other option of course, would be to revoke, but I don't think that that would have hilarious consequences either.

It wouldn't be Mays deal, it would be based on the N Ireland only backstop.

[ŽižkovClaret]

Thomas Cook set to be a Brexit victim before it even happens?

https://news.sky.com/story/thomas-cook- ... sf-twitter

Thomas Cook Group is scrambling to stitch together a last-ditch fire-sale in a bid to stave off collapse and avert the biggest-ever peacetime repatriation of British citizens.

Sky News has learnt that the 178 year-old travel agent has this week been holding emergency talks about a deal to offload its Nordic airline and tour operating units in a desperate attempt to raise cash.

Thomas Cook has been left with a £200m black hole in its finances following a demand by lenders to secure new standby funding on top of a £900m restructuring package that is due to be voted on next week.

Insiders said the company was examining "every possible option" as it tries to salvage a rescue deal with more than 20,000 jobs across the group at risk.

Roughly 9,000 people work for Thomas Cook in the UK.

One stakeholder said that it was "a critical 24 hours" for Thomas Cook's survival prospects.

A successful outcome from the labyrinth of negotiations remains possible, although they cautioned that without imminent assurances that the additional funding is forthcoming, parts or all of Thomas Cook faced being placed into administration within the next few days.

[martin_p]

I wanted to provide a link but cannot understand how to do it!, sorry.

Do search for “don’t reduce uk to a vassal state” German MEP explaining exactly why the EU should give us a deal and the EU tactics to keep us in a customs union.

Brexbox 7 is also available.

I’ve no doubt a deal will happen eventually, but only after we’ve paid our divorce bill and worked out a solution to the Irish border. Mean time the economy will be tanking and etc.... (see various predictions). The EU are talking about it taking eight months just to assemble their negotiating team. Then it’ll be a few years to get a deal.

[nil_desperandum]

It wouldn't be Mays deal, it would be based on the N Ireland only backstop.

What / whose deal would it be then?
The backstop isn't part of the Withdrawal Agreement, it was added to it as a safeguard for the Belfast Agreement at the suggestion of the UK to avoid the necessity of a hard border, as surely you know.
Are you suggesting that Johnson's team have managed to bring forward an entirely new WA that all the parties will agree to in just a couple of weeks. Any deal will essentially be the May deal (that Johnson voted for) with the border arrangements tweaked, (most likely moved to the Irish sea). It won't go down well in some circles, especially Scotland who will believe - correctly that NI is getting preferential treatment.

[ClaretAL]

FB_IMG_1568927533573.jpg (92.42 KiB) Viewed 1895 times

[Paul Waine]

Aren't you a qualified accountant?

Hi Paul, yes.

But, before anyone asks, that's not been my job for a long time.

[AndrewJB]

FB_IMG_1568927533573.jpg

Do you think he planned his child’s illness to coincide with a pm visit he wouldn’t have advanced notice of?

[Spijed]

FB_IMG_1568927533573.jpg

He might be a Labour activist, but he also had a 7year old sick child in hospital.

[Lowbankclaret]

Do you think he planned his child’s illness to coincide with a pm visit he wouldn’t have advanced notice of?

No but he was mic’ed up.

We all walk round like that, oh no wait, we don’t.

[ClaretAL]

Do you think he planned his child’s illness to coincide with a pm visit he wouldn’t have advanced notice of?

No I think he made the best of the situation, spotted his opportunity and took it. I don't disagree with anything he said but the ward is full as he quite rightly said, but I don't see any other parents doing the same, but they are not Labour activists either.

[Devils_Advocate]

Great work by the Brexit Party today fighting for our people.

The European Parliament had a vote on a motion calling for Iran to release a British detainee (you know the one who Johnson put in danger as Home Secretary) and the Brexit Party decided to abstain and not support her.

[martin_p]

No but he was mic’ed up.

We all walk round like that, oh no wait, we don’t.

Who said he was mic’ed up?

[martin_p]

Great work by the Brexit Party today fighting for our people.

The European Parliament had a vote on a motion calling for Iran to release a British detainee (you know the one who Johnson put in danger as Home Secretary) and the Brexit Party decided to abstain and not support her.

She’s probably a ceaseless remoaner so doesn’t count.

[Spijed]

No I think he made the best of the situation, spotted his opportunity and took it. I don't disagree with anything he said but the ward is full as he quite rightly said, but I don't see any other parents doing the same, but they are not Labour activists either.

The NHS is something the Conservatives are always going to struggle with anyway, and if there is a hint that any part of it is going to be part of a deal with Trump then Boris will be toast!

[martin_p]

No I think he made the best of the situation, spotted his opportunity and took it. I don't disagree with anything he said but the ward is full as he quite rightly said, but I don't see any other parents doing the same, but they are not Labour activists either.

There’s a few ‘confrontations’ with the public he had over the last couple of weeks.

[AndrewJB]

I am happy with a no deal Brexit.

The world will not end.

Yes I accept there will be issues but no one really knows what they are.

Then get some trade deals done, one hopefully with the EU.

When are those people who made the obviously erroneous claims and promises going to hold up their hands and admit their mistakes? I’m happy for remainers to do that too.

You might be fine with a no deal exit, but lots of people aren’t. Especially after the same politicians advocating it were the ones who got things so wrong about how easy it would be.

[AndrewJB]

She’s probably a ceaseless remoaner so doesn’t count.

Not “white” enough?

[ClaretAL]

When are those people who made the obviously erroneous claims and promises going to hold up their hands and admit their mistakes? I’m happy for remainers to do that too.

You might be fine with a no deal exit, but lots of people aren’t. Especially after the same politicians advocating it were the ones who got things so wrong about how easy it would be.

But on the other side of the coin, the Bank of England are now lowering the estimate of impact it one thought brexit would cause. Pretty much like all the scare mongering about what would happen if the referendum result was leave and the immediate impact would be a full melt down etc. The real answer is no one knows, but if we do leave with no deal I doubt we are going to just down tools and let the world see we are nothing without the EU? We are Great Britain for God sake, there is nothing we can't produce right here and we already have super powers knocking on our door to do business

[ŽižkovClaret]

No but he was mic’ed up.

We all walk round like that, oh no wait, we don’t.

https://fullfact.org/online/omar-salem- ... icrophone/

[martin_p]

https://fullfact.org/online/omar-salem- ... icrophone/

Ah, it’s another lie.

[aggi]

Lowbank uncritically repeating ******** that he read on the internet! That is a shocker

[martin_p]

Lowbank uncritically repeating ******** that he read on the internet! That is a shocker

I thought there must be another video or something with perfect sound quality because it’s very clear from the one I’ve seen that he’s some distance away from a microphone.

[aggi]

Thomas Cook set to be a Brexit victim before it even happens?
.

It wouldn't be the first unfortunately

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ver-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[dsr]

It wouldn't be the first unfortunately

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ver-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Pawnbrokers going bust because of Brexit? Is that because we're all going to be so rich that there is no longer any need for pawnbrokers, or is it because they'll lose out on all the European customers who used to fly in and pawn their possessions in England?

[Paul Waine]

Here's something for us to think about: Banks move just 1,000 jobs despite Brexit exodus fears

Times (on-line 12:01 20th Sept)

Large investment banks have so far relocated out of Britain fewer than 1,000 jobs with six weeks to go before the country is due to leave the European Union.

Businesses in the City “still have significant work to do” before the scheduled Brexit date, according to analysis by EY which found that fewer staff than expected had been moved.

About 7,000 jobs could shift from London to Europe “in the near future”, the accountancy firm added. It estimated that assets relocated as a result of Brexit could be worth about £1 trillion.

The analysis is likely to be seized on by those sceptical of the stark predictions of an exodus from the Square Mile after the 2016 referendum. Long-term projections for job losses in financial services went as high as 75,000 under a worst-case scenario.

Of 222 companies monitored by EY’s Brexit tracker, 92 had said publicly that they were considering moving or had already moved operations or staff. Dublin remains the most popular destination, closely followed by Luxembourg and Frankfurt. Since Britain voted to leave the EU three years ago 30 of 48 banks and brokerages in London have said they were at least considering relocations to the Continent. The large investment banks have moved just under 1,000 staff so far — 15 per cent of the total volume of staff believed to have been marked for relocation.

“Now is not the time to take the foot off the gas,” said Omar Ali, EY’s UK financial services leader. “There is much to do in the next six weeks.”
London has retained its position as the world’s second-best financial centre in a closely watched index but was warned it risked being overtaken by Shanghai. New York extended its lead in the top spot.

The signs are “worrying” for London said Michael Mainelli, the chairman of Z/Yen, which helps compile the Global Financial Centres Index. “Policy uncertainty, Brexit, trade wars and geopolitical unrest are causing more volatility in financial centre performance,” he said.

The index, published twice a year, ranks 114 financial centres by combining the views of 3,360 professionals in the finance sector with data. Respondents believe New York, Hong Kong and Singapore “will benefit substantially from Brexit”, with Frankfurt, Paris and Luxembourg among the European centres deemed most likely to profit.

Catherine McGuinness, of the City of London Corporation, said its performance “in what is undoubtedly a challenging time” marked “an affirmation of its fundamental strengths”. She said: “Sustained Brexit uncertainty is leaving business with its hands tied, reluctant to make everyday decisions on recruitment, expansion and investment. Day by day, as uncertainty persists, so does the threat of more businesses moving jobs and operations away from the UK.”

Companies in the financial sector have in the past three months “kept relatively quiet on the status of their Brexit plans”, Mr Ali said. “Given that many companies had pulled out all the stops to be ready ahead of the March deadline, much of the planning of temporary solutions for staff and operational moves has already been completed.

“Financial services firms have the building blocks in place but have so far transferred fewer staff and assets to the continent than expected. So there is still lots for the industry to contend with as we approach October 31.”

[Paul Waine]

A little bit on Thomas Cook - Friday 20th Times:

"A collapse would hit an estimated 150,000 UK holidaymakers as well as more than 500,000 customers in overseas source markets, mostly Germany and Scandinavia."

"Thomas Cook, which was founded in 1841, is one of the world’s largest holiday businesses, with 21,000 employees in 16 countries and more than 22 million customers every year." "9,000 UK job"

[Clarets4me]

Great work by the Brexit Party today fighting for our people.

The European Parliament had a vote on a motion calling for Iran to release a British detainee (you know the one who Johnson put in danger as Home Secretary) and the Brexit Party decided to abstain and not support her.

On the contrary, two Brexit party MEP's spoke in the debate, calling for " actions not words " from the EU. One read out the names of imprisoned women in Iran, including the lady concerned .....

The E.U. nations, especially the French, are investing heavily in Iran ... despite their breaches of the " Nuclear deal " ..

https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/03/ir ... -autonomy/

[Lancasterclaret]

On the contrary, two Brexit party MEP's spoke in the debate, calling for " actions not words " from the EU. One read out the names of imprisoned women in Iran, including the lady concerned .....

The E.U. nations, especially the French, are investing heavily in Iran ... despite their breaches of the " Nuclear deal " ..

https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/03/ir ... -autonomy/

So you are denying they all abstained then? (which they did btw)

She's too brown and too Muslim for the Brexit Party I'm afraid.

Just not the right sort for them.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Thomas Cook set to be a Brexit victim before it even happens?

https://news.sky.com/story/thomas-cook- ... sf-twitter

6 years ago Thomas Cook nearly went bang due to financial difficulties and was rescued.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... velleisure" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

People will no doubt be trying to stick the blame on Brexit, because it's convenient right now, but it's more likely down to having a poor business model and an ever changing market.
Sites like Sky Scanner means consumers can purchase their holidays at a better price then they can using Thomas Cook.

Same with the high street problems, why walk into a shop when it can be ordered online where it's usually cheaper?

[AndyClaret]

So you are denying they all abstained then? (which they did btw)

She's too brown and too Muslim for the Brexit Party I'm afraid.

Just not the right sort for them.

Brexit party has more diverse MEP's than any other party.

[Lancasterclaret]

Brexit party has more diverse MEP's than any other party.

And that means jackshit if they all abstained Andy

I mean, the whole idea of them is they stand up for Britain surely?

What better chance to prove to people like me that they are not what say they are?

All they had to do was to vote in favour of supporting her and you'd think "Hmm, maybe they aren't what we think they are?"

And they didn't. I wonder why?

I suppose we should be glad that they are actually turning up for work eh?

[Darthlaw]

It wouldn't be the first unfortunately

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ver-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Must have been Brexit’s fault when they were struggling in 2014, too...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... nistration" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[martin_p]

Must have been Brexit’s fault when they were struggling in 2014, too...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... nistration" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is the ‘people die in car crashes every day so I’m not sure why you’d have a problem with me shooting you in the head’ argument.

[Tall Paul]

This is the ‘people die in car crashes every day so I’m not sure why you’d have a problem with me shooting you in the head’ argument.

Also known as the Sidney/Godisadeejay argument.

[Devils_Advocate]

On the contrary, two Brexit party MEP's spoke in the debate, calling for " actions not words " from the EU. One read out the names of imprisoned women in Iran, including the lady concerned .....

The E.U. nations, especially the French, are investing heavily in Iran ... despite their breaches of the " Nuclear deal " ..

https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/03/ir ... -autonomy/

Thanks for the article but im not sure what someone from an American think tank around advancing US foreign policy writing about the JCPOA really has to do with the point I made.

Im sure there's ground for good debate on whether Trumps approach to Iran is the right one and whether the EU should jump to Trumps tune or be able to disagree but again this is not really what my post was about.

Sounds like the BP members are using the above thinking to bash the EU around their current position on Iran which does not align with the US (and probably Farages paymasters in the US and Russia).

Again thats a fair position for them to take but they should not be using this a political football at the potential expense of a British citizen. They could have (and should have) had all this discussion but then still showed their support for a British detainee in supporting the motion.

Finally I looked up the source of your article as Im always interested in different views and people involved and whilst it doesn't make her wrong she is practically anonymous in the political and media world so I wouldn't give it to much weighting

[AndrewJB]

But on the other side of the coin, the Bank of England are now lowering the estimate of impact it one thought brexit would cause. Pretty much like all the scare mongering about what would happen if the referendum result was leave and the immediate impact would be a full melt down etc. The real answer is no one knows, but if we do leave with no deal I doubt we are going to just down tools and let the world see we are nothing without the EU? We are Great Britain for God sake, there is nothing we can't produce right here and we already have super powers knocking on our door to do business

We do know that the “easiest free trade in history” is a load of nonsense, if we can’t even manage a withdrawal agreement. We know the EU won’t buckle under the threat of a no deal. We know we don’t “hold all the cards” We know that me saying this isn’t project fear, but describing reality.

We are Great Britain, and we’ve integrated with the EU for forty years. We can’t just switch our economy from import / export to feeding the domestic economy in a day. Leaving without a deal will cause problems, and the only question is; how big?

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Also known as the Sidney/Godisadeejay argument.

Shooting people isn't my thing tbh.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

This is the ‘people die in car crashes every day so I’m not sure why you’d have a problem with me shooting you in the head’ argument.

Not really though is it?

If a business has been struggling for a number of years prior to Brexit and needed bailing out because it was on the brink of collapse, it's difficult to stick the blame on Brexit when it's on the verge of collapse again, unless that's what you really really want to do to suit an argument....

Like many industries, things change and those that can't keep up fall by the wayside, it's just how it is.
If I can buy a holiday online and save a few hundred quid then why would I bother going to a travel agents and getting fleeced?