Genuinely sad to hear that. I'm more sympathetic to Corbyn than most, but even I will admit he isn't a good Labour leader: if he were, he would be polling much better. At the same time, he isn't that bad either, certainly not compared to Johnson. There are lots of bright, good-hearted people in the Labour party who would have influence if they were in power, and, for balance, no doubt there are plenty of arseholes there too but if you really are a socialist, and an intelligent man too, I cannot see how you can possibly consider the current racket to be preferable. I really can't. Reconsider, please.Colburn_Claret wrote:I was a Labour Party member for 40 years and attended conference down at Bournemouth once. I've said many times, I never left the Labour Party, they left me. I know lots of friends and family who feel exactly the same way.
Corbyn isnt a Socialist, he never has been, hes a Commie, and not even a thinly disguised one. The extremes of the far left have been tried, tested and failed before. They'd fail again .
If you really want to help the poor, the sick, the elderly a country has to generate the money to fund it first, you cant eat pie in the sky. Any extreme left wing party, run by Corbyn or anyone else, would grind business to a standstill. And then it's the ones most in need that suffer.
I dont believe in the Tories, I never have, but at least they understand what business needs to prosper, all they need is a heart to understand how to use it. At the moment they are by far the lesser of two evils.
Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
The Labour Party have been as far to the left, if not further, in the 40 years you claim to have been a member than they are now.Colburn_Claret wrote:I was a Labour Party member for 40 years and attended conference down at Bournemouth once. I've said many times, I never left the Labour Party, they left me. I know lots of friends and family who feel exactly the same way.
Corbyn isnt a Socialist, he never has been, hes a Commie, and not even a thinly disguised one. The extremes of the far left have been tried, tested and failed before. They'd fail again .
If you really want to help the poor, the sick, the elderly a country has to generate the money to fund it first, you cant eat pie in the sky. Any extreme left wing party, run by Corbyn or anyone else, would grind business to a standstill. And then it's the ones most in need that suffer.
I dont believe in the Tories, I never have, but at least they understand what business needs to prosper, all they need is a heart to understand how to use it. At the moment they are by far the lesser of two evils.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
.If it be your will wrote:No dispute at all that Boris's support could drain to Brexit Party. Indeed, anything other than a hard Brexit and it almost certainly will - possibly dramatically so. The question is: would it go anywhere other than Brexit Party?
For that you're looking at your classic free-market Tories: the adherents of open, frictionless trade, together with a belief that state intervention distorts the correct functioning of capitalism, and should therefore be minimised. This is your Ken Clarke club. The Tories that read the Financial Times, if you like. Might they switch to the Lib Dems? (I think we can rule out a switch to Corbyn's Labour, can't we?)
The answer is yes, they certainly can. The Boris agenda offers them nothing but chaos. But I've just looked at the data in the last 3 major opinion polls, and the take home message is this: They have already gone!
Nearly 80% of the current Tory vote are leavers, and leavers everywhere are now overwhelmingly no-dealers. Have a look in the data, it is truly shocking. Broken down into social class, current Tory support is highest in DE, and least in AB. When broken down into income, it's almost linear - the higher your income, the less likely you are to vote Tory! Now have a look at Lib Dem support, and the exact opposite is true. It seems your classic Clarke/Rudd remainer Tory - the educated affluent buiseness family with kids in private school - is already firmly in the Lib Dem camp. Yet Boris still gets support in the mid 30s, easily enough for a majority.
Can you see where I'm coming from? So long as Boris pursues a hard brexit, he wins the next election. The only way this doesn't work is if there's mass tactical voting in the remain camp, but considering the entire political map has been upended, it is close to impossible to know how to vote in a tactical way, even if you wanted to.
But even on those figures Johnson can lose 20% of his vote. That’s a big number!
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Isn’t the number being referred to - the number of eligible votes that would make Corbyn interim PM - would be approx 400?martin_p wrote:Doubt it. When Corbyn won the last Labour leadership contest over 300,000 members voted for him. That’s twice as much as the whole Tory membership. So what you say won’t be true.
Looking forward to the spin that says it’s democratic to have the leader of the opposition who has refused to vote for a general election becomes PM on the back of 400 votes
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
If it be your will wrote:No dispute at all that Boris's support could drain to Brexit Party. Indeed, anything other than a hard Brexit and it almost certainly will - possibly dramatically so. The question is: would it go anywhere other than Brexit Party?
For that you're looking at your classic free-market Tories: the adherents of open, frictionless trade, together with a belief that state intervention distorts the correct functioning of capitalism, and should therefore be minimised. This is your Ken Clarke club. The Tories that read the Financial Times, if you like. Might they switch to the Lib Dems? (I think we can rule out a switch to Corbyn's Labour, can't we?)
The answer is yes, they certainly can. The Boris agenda offers them nothing but chaos. But I've just looked at the data in the last 3 major opinion polls, and the take home message is this: They have already gone!
Nearly 80% of the current Tory vote are leavers, and leavers everywhere are now overwhelmingly no-dealers. Have a look in the data, it is truly shocking. Broken down into social class, current Tory support is highest in DE, and least in AB. When broken down into income, it's almost linear - the higher your income, the less likely you are to vote Tory! Now have a look at Lib Dem support, and the exact opposite is true. It seems your classic Clarke/Rudd remainer Tory - the educated affluent buiseness family with kids in private school - is already firmly in the Lib Dem camp. Yet Boris still gets support in the mid 30s, easily enough for a majority.
Can you see where I'm coming from? So long as Boris pursues a hard brexit, he wins the next election. The only way this doesn't work is if there's mass tactical voting in the remain camp, but considering the entire political map has been upended, it is close to impossible to know how to vote in a tactical way, even if you wanted to.
I'll ask you again man, how is this good for the Left?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Time and time again you lot say BJ wants no deal. You are wrong, he wants what most leavers want. A canada style free trade deal. He is correct in saying that the best chance of getting that is if no deal is still a possibility. The remainers know it all too well, hence they bend every convention possible. When BJ tests the limits he is called fascist.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I never said the EU wouldnt extend A50, I said that THEY said they wouldn't.martin_p wrote:And I’ll ask you the same question I’ve been asking other Brexiteers throwing doubt on the EU extending article 50. Is no deal so scary to the EU that ’keeping it on the table’ is the only way of getting a good deal or something they’ll choose to enter into on 31st October when the option is there to avoid it for at least three months? It can’t be both.
Keeping no deal on the table is the only way of getting a good deal, because the EU dont look at it as a choice between no deal or a good deal, they see it as a choice between a good deal or remain. That's what the house has promised them with Hilarious Benns Bill, written with the aid of Brussels by all accounts. So of course they'll extend it, if they get the chance, and of course they'll continue to sit on their hands, in the belief/knowledge that giving Boris nothing means their friends in Parliament will force us to stay,against the will of the people.
I dont know if Boris has a trick up his sleeve to ignore the Bill, and leave anyway, but I am sure that the people who matter, the voters, dont blame this on Boris, but on remainers in Parliament.
That's why I cant wait for a GE the people will at last get a chance to let Parliament know what it thinks of the last 3 years.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Are you being serious?Burnley Ace wrote:Isn’t the number being referred to - the number of eligible votes that would make Corbyn interim PM - would be approx 400?
Looking forward to the spin that says it’s democratic to have the leader of the opposition who has refused to vote for a general election becomes PM on the back of 400 votes
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Way I see it, we can't ditch Corbyn because, right here, right now, we need a leader of the opposition and not the kind of in fighting which emerged at conference. But if Johnson gets through a hard Brexit AND a five year spell what the **** becomes of this country?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
You need to back that up with evidencesummitclaret wrote:Time and time again you lot say BJ wants no deal. You are wrong, he wants what most leavers want. A canada style free trade deal. He is correct in saying that the best chance of getting that is if no deal is still a possibility. The remainers know it all too well, hence they bend every convention possible. When BJ tests the limits he is called fascist.
And you also need to read stuff on the reality of what happens with the EU if we leave with "No Deal" on Oct 31st.
Their position will not change. They won't negotiate a deal until we sort out EU national status (which has already changed ahead of what was promised pre-2016), the divorce bill and another thing that has completely slipped my mind!
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
If Corbyn does get in then he will be as valid as May or Johnson.Murger wrote:Well it will. His party wasn't elected, the Tories were.
The Tories weren't elected with a majority. They had to scrabble around and form an alliance to get a working majority.
Similarly, Labour didn't get a majority but if they can scrabble around and form an alliance to get a working majority then that's equally valid.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Only if you want to compare apples with pears. It either the number of votes of party members they got to become leader of their party, in which case Corbyn got over three times as many as Johnson, or its the number of MPs required for confidence in the commons which would be the same for both, 326 (I think).Burnley Ace wrote:Isn’t the number being referred to - the number of eligible votes that would make Corbyn interim PM - would be approx 400?
Looking forward to the spin that says it’s democratic to have the leader of the opposition who has refused to vote for a general election becomes PM on the back of 400 votes
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
They have, but only just.martin_p wrote:The Labour Party have been as far to the left, if not further, in the 40 years you claim to have been a member than they are now.
It's been said on other forums and probably this one as well, that when you are young, and naive, what's not to like about a caring sharing society. Nothing, there still isnt now.
The reality is as you grow older it's almost natural to drift to the right. You've worked hard to raise a family, put a roof over their head, pay the Bill's and the occasional treats. All this whilst watching some, not all, but some, who claim every benefit under the sun, while they sit on their backsides refusing to work. Then someone comes along, and they want to start taxing you for all your hard work, so that those same lazy bastards can live a lifestyle they have no entitle too.
I believe passionately in the welfare state, but the nanny state I have no time for.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
(I'm going to phrase this to intentionally wind you up, but it's meant in good spirit)Erasmus wrote:This whole business is just so awful now in terms of what it has done for our country. I favoured Remain because nobody could ever tell me what the benefits of leaving are for me, my family or the people of my community, whilst there seems to be some risk of economic damage from leaving. But the harm to the country caused by these divisions is going to take years to repair. The real hatred between the two sides can do no good for anyone. As Jesus said:
'Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand.' (Matthew 12.25)
However bad leaving or remaining might seem the worst outcome is the intensity of the divisions between us. I think now we should just accept May's deal with all its faults as it allows us to leave but at the same time limits the economic damage that leaving might cause. Then we might begin to heal the divide; but the whole process has caused so much harm to the country whilst any potential gain appears so negligible.
Oh, come on! This was the moment the ostracised, the derided, the scorned, the ones who've spent 40 years watching the clever kids go off to university and into cushy bullshit jobs, hoovering up the best houses, whilst the ones doing the 'proper' work - the sort that you can actually see a material benefit from like building walls or delivering the mail - had their wages crushed, their schools wrecked, their mines and factories closed, finally, finally stood up for themselves with a full-throated F*** You!
Yes, most of them are now disappearing into the plugholes of Boris and Farage, but what did you expect when the one party that might have made a difference abandoned them for the agreeable sensitivities of the urbanite class, who vomited a shower of abuse over them as they went? How did that lefty Paul Mason describe them? "The ex-miners in the pub that don't care if they wreck the economy so long as the migrants go away."
This was a historic opportunity for the socialists to take the working class with them, and all they could offer was malice and spite.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
He has consistently said his aim in a csftd and that if he can't get that that we should leave without a WA. There is total clarity on his aim.Lancasterclaret wrote:You need to back that up with evidence
And you also need to read stuff on the reality of what happens with the EU if we leave with "No Deal" on Oct 31st.
Their position will not change. They won't negotiate a deal until we sort out EU national status (which has already changed ahead of what was promised pre-2016), the divorce bill and another thing that has completely slipped my mind!
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Again.summitclaret wrote:He has consistently said his aim in a csftd and that if he can't get that that we should leave without a WA. There is total clarity on his aim.
I'm striving for total clarity here
We leave without a deal.
We want an FTA with the EU.
The EU goes "here is the withdrawal agreement, you have to agree to this before we agree to an FTA"
Do you see that?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
And their answer now to healing the UK ( see new policy) is unlimited encouraged immigration whether there are jobs, houses, health services and schools or not. Talk about ignoring your heartlands.If it be your will wrote:(I'm going to phrase this to intentionally wind you up, but it's meant in good spirit)
Oh, come on! This was the moment the ostracised, the derided, the scorned, the ones who've spent 40 years watching the clever kids go off to university and into cushy bullshit jobs, hoovering up the best houses, whilst the ones doing the 'proper' work - the sort that you can actually see a material benefit from like building walls or delivering the mail - had their wages crushed, their schools wrecked, their mines and factories closed, finally, finally stood up for themselves with a full-throated F*** You!
Yes, most of them are now disappearing into the plugholes of Boris and Farage, but what did you expect when the one party that might have made a difference abandoned them for the agreeable sensitivities of the urbanite class, who vomited a shower of abuse over them as they went? How did that lefty Paul Mason describe them? "The ex-miners in the pub that don't care if they wreck the economy so long as the migrants go away."
This was a historic opportunity for the socialists to take the working class with them, and all they could offer was malice and spite.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
So Labour's suggested 50% tax band for high earners is about the same as the 90%+ in years gone by? It's an interesting exercise to compare Corbyn's suggested tax rates to what we had ~ 20 years ago. They're not hugely different.Colburn_Claret wrote:They have, but only just.
It's been said on other forums and probably this one as well, that when you are young, and naive, what's not to like about a caring sharing society. Nothing, there still isnt now.
The reality is as you grow older it's almost natural to drift to the right. You've worked hard to raise a family, put a roof over their head, pay the Bill's and the occasional treats. All this whilst watching some, not all, but some, who claim every benefit under the sun, while they sit on their backsides refusing to work. Then someone comes along, and they want to start taxing you for all your hard work, so that those same lazy bastards can live a lifestyle they have no entitle too.
I believe passionately in the welfare state, but the nanny state I have no time for.
How does this tally with the lowest unemployment figures for years? It seems somewhat similar to the mythical immigrants that are both coming over here stealing our jobs and sponging off benefits.
A large part of that taxation is going to support pensioners. Final salary pension schemes, living longer, improved but more expensive healthcare, it's all got to be funded somehow.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
No we use the threat of no deal to try to deal with the trapstop as best we can and get a revised WA. That's now the easier bit because I doubt this HOC would agree that anyway because it is ( just about) the basis for a proper Brexit. Remember the HOC role is to block brexit.Lancasterclaret wrote:Again.
I'm striving for total clarity here
We leave without a deal.
We want an FTA with the EU.
The EU goes "here is the withdrawal agreement, you have to agree to this before we agree to an FTA"
Do you see that?
There is no chance that the EU will shift enough until it is clear that any new deal would be agreed. That is why a GE has to come next.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Not going to happen.Lowbankclaret wrote:I have got one!!!
Someone has probably said this already.
Scenario 4
Vote of no confidence.
Form a gov under Swinson of all no Tories.
Back her in a vote to revoke article 50.
Revoke it , we stay in .
Boris loses.
Wait 18 months hoping things have calmed down and have a GE.
Swinson is way too divisive (and nowhere near powerful enough) to be selected as the leader.
Labour wouldn't support a unilateral revocation of Article 50, it'd cost way too many votes in the next election.
There are only three ways Article 50 gets revoked:
Lib Dems get elected in the next election.
A second referendum with Remain winning.
Johnson doing something stupid to try and force a No Deal. I imagine in this case it would be revoked but a second referendum would be planned.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
So what you are saying is that you have left the Labour party (as you have grown older) and not that they have left you like you have previously claimed.Colburn_Claret wrote:They have, but only just.
It's been said on other forums and probably this one as well, that when you are young, and naive, what's not to like about a caring sharing society. Nothing, there still isnt now.
The reality is as you grow older it's almost natural to drift to the right. You've worked hard to raise a family, put a roof over their head, pay the Bill's and the occasional treats. All this whilst watching some, not all, but some, who claim every benefit under the sun, while they sit on their backsides refusing to work. Then someone comes along, and they want to start taxing you for all your hard work, so that those same lazy bastards can live a lifestyle they have no entitle too.
I believe passionately in the welfare state, but the nanny state I have no time for.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I have to say, that doesn’t look like ‘I never left the Labour Party, they left me’. Quite the reverse in fact!Colburn_Claret wrote:They have, but only just.
It's been said on other forums and probably this one as well, that when you are young, and naive, what's not to like about a caring sharing society. Nothing, there still isnt now.
The reality is as you grow older it's almost natural to drift to the right. You've worked hard to raise a family, put a roof over their head, pay the Bill's and the occasional treats. All this whilst watching some, not all, but some, who claim every benefit under the sun, while they sit on their backsides refusing to work. Then someone comes along, and they want to start taxing you for all your hard work, so that those same lazy bastards can live a lifestyle they have no entitle too.
I believe passionately in the welfare state, but the nanny state I have no time for.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Oh yes, sorry, I got distracted with my tirade against Erasmus.HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:I'll ask you again man, how is this good for the Left?
It's not. It's a hopeless situation for the left now, I think. But if you're asking why I pursued it in the first place I've done it to death on here already. But in brief I maintain that socialism is basically impossible as a member of the EU. You can redistribute wealth, that's fine, but if you want public monopoly ownership of rail and utilities, and make them democratically accountable rather than accountable to the market, it's simply not allowed (4th Railway Package and 3rd Energy Package respectively). If you want to stop the mass outsourcing of the public sector into private operations, it's not allowed (Public Procurement Rules), if you want to curtail abusive, continent-wide labour arbitrage, it's not allowed ('Four Freedoms'), if you want the might of the state to help nurture start up industries that might one day benefit us all, or support crucial, strategic national industries (e.g. steel) it's not allowed (State Aid Rules).
Before anyone says I'm wrong, please, leave it. I'm tired of making the same arguments over and over again, and have given up. I'm just watching it all as a neutral observer these days.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
*ITBYW has left the group "I'm interested in having my opinion changed on Brexit* (smiley)If it be your will wrote:Oh yes, sorry, I got distracted with my tirade against Erasmus.
It's not. It's a hopeless situation for the left now, I think. But if you're asking why I pursued it in the first place I've done it to death on here already. But in brief I maintain that socialism is basically impossible as a member of the EU. You can redistribute wealth, that's fine, but if you want public monopoly ownership of rail and utilities, and make them democratically accountable rather than accountable to the market, it's simply not allowed (4th Railway Package and 3rd Energy Package respectively). If you want to stop the mass outsourcing of the public sector into private operations, it's not allowed (Public Procurement Rules), if you want to curtail abusive, continent-wide labour arbitrage, it's not allowed ('Four Freedoms'), if you want the might of the state to help nurture start up industries that might one day benefit us all, or support crucial, strategic national industries (e.g. steel) it's not allowed (State Aid Rules).
Before anyone says I'm wrong, please, leave it. I'm tired of making the same arguments over and over again, and have given up. I'm just watching it all as a neutral observer these days.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I've only just stopped shaking my head in distraught disbelief over the last 2 weeks. Don't make me start again...summitclaret wrote:And their answer now to healing the UK ( see new policy) is unlimited encouraged immigration whether there are jobs, houses, health services and schools or not. Talk about ignoring your heartlands.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I thought it was a ludicrous decision after refusing to back remain.If it be your will wrote:I've only just stopped shaking my head in distraught disbelief over the last 2 weeks. Don't make me start again...
Trying to stay in the middle of this shitshow will cost them votes sadly
On the plus point, due to the tactics of Johnson over the last couple of days, i'm veering back to tactically voting up here again for Labour.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
If high levels of net immigration is high on your personal list of 'concerns for the future of the country' then vote Conservative or Brexit Party.summitclaret wrote:And their answer now to healing the UK ( see new policy) is unlimited encouraged immigration whether there are jobs, houses, health services and schools or not. Talk about ignoring your heartlands.
If this particular political issue it doesn't worry you then you have more choice, Labour, Lib Dem or Green.
The choice is yours.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
3 years down the line and you lot still don't get that the 'threat' of no deal is a threat to the UK more than anyone else.summitclaret wrote:No we use the threat of no deal to try to deal with the trapstop as best we can and get a revised WA.
It's not a strong bargaining position to threaten an act of grievous self harm.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
1Mala591 wrote:If high levels of net immigration is high on your personal list of 'concerns for the future of the country' then vote Conservative or Brexit Party.
If this particular political issue it doesn't worry you then you have more choice, Labour, Lib Dem or Green.
The choice is yours.
Its not a deal breaker for me in terms of voting. However there is loads of evidence to suggest that it is a key issue for very many voters.
My leave view is about the right to govern ourselves and get away from ever closer union. Even more important now to ensure that a democratic vote is upheld. In particular, ensuring no second referendum whilst the first one has not been acted on.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
If you actually hate Corbyn, then I think you're in a small club of fellow newspaper readers, whipped up by their years of attacks on him. I know some people who hated Thatcher, for example, but she held power for ten years, and those people can point to decisions she made that negatively affected their lives. I don't think anyone can point to a decision Corbyn has made that has negatively affected their life, unless you'd put a fiver on Nelson Mandela serving longer in prison or something like that. All this stuff you come out with about "extreme left wing politics" and "communism" - is just fluff the establishment media have fed you. For example, what was dangerously radical in the 2017 Labour manifesto?Colburn_Claret wrote:You're missing a few points. I have no fear of Corbyn ever winning a GE. If I as a socialist, hate him and his extreme left wing agenda, and his hatred of everything British, then I can only imagine what the rest of the country feels.
No his only way of becoming PM, is if the muppets in Parliament have a coup and put him there, in order to undermine Boris.
As for extending A50, there has to be a reason. That's what the EU said last time. It's pointless to extend unless it has a purpose, and it doesn't. After an extension nothing changes, the remainers in Parliament will continue to try and ignore/overturn the referendum. The Leavers will continue to try to deliver on the promises made to the people, both before and after the referendum, and at the hustings at the last GE.
Delaying it to see who wins a GE is pointless, because Boris will win it, if he does a deal with Farage he'll walk it, so again pointless.
Businesses have had enough, they just want it doing. It's amazing how well business, as a whole, has coped during the last 3 years of turmoil and just indicates how strong our economy is right now, that it can bear that burden. It's why leaving with no deal is nothing to fear.
The people have had enough of bickering, snarling MPs, pulling this country inside out, embarrassing us before the whole world, trying to score political points, while ignoring the mandate given by the referendum.
If it's my duty to get behind the democratically elected leader of the country, then I look forward to your posts supporting Boris, and Brexit, after the next election.
For quite a few years people complained about politicians "being in it for themselves" "lying and duplicitous" "say anything to get elected" - and you could say this culminated in the expenses scandal of 2009. Guess who had the lowest parliamentary expenses that year? https://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news ... r-1-748369" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Furthermore he's straightforwardly honest in how he answers questions, isn't there to look after himself, and can't be accused of chasing power for power's sake. Basically, everything the public has cried out for in a politician over the last twenty years. And of course this is also why the establishment press has attacked him so viciously. Unlike Blair, Cameron, and Johnson, he won't dance to their tune. A great byproduct of his rise to leadership is a lot of young people have turned their backs on the establishment press - the default position being "if it's in the Sun, the Mail, or the Telegraph, it's probably not true"
We'll see what happens in the next election, but I think you're so far in the establishment press bubble, you might be in for a shock. During an election period the press have to be more impartial in the way they report, and that's now Labour's message got out two years ago, overturning a twenty point lead. I'm sure within your establishment media bubble you're told that Johnson is different and a better vote winner than May, but the same Ozzy strategist who helped May lose her majority will be in charge of things, and let's face it, on current form Johnson is hardly fit to run a bath.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Just as Labour has support that would vote for a tree wearing a red rosette, there are tories for whom it would be a very extreme step not to vote Conservative, and these are the ones I think will shift away if the only option is no deal. My father in law is one, for example. A remain voter (for his grandchildren) he still maintains he'll vote Conservative, but I think may change because in his opinion "no deal" would be utterly reckless. We'll see how it goes, but I think a lot can change over the course of a campaign. You might already have seen this article, which backs up your thoughts on how things have altered: https://www.theweek.co.uk/103134/how-bu ... emy-corbyn" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;If it be your will wrote:No dispute at all that Boris's support could drain to Brexit Party. Indeed, anything other than a hard Brexit and it almost certainly will - possibly dramatically so. The question is: would it go anywhere other than Brexit Party?
For that you're looking at your classic free-market Tories: the adherents of open, frictionless trade, together with a belief that state intervention distorts the correct functioning of capitalism, and should therefore be minimised. This is your Ken Clarke club. The Tories that read the Financial Times, if you like. Might they switch to the Lib Dems? (I think we can rule out a switch to Corbyn's Labour, can't we?)
The answer is yes, they certainly can. The Boris agenda offers them nothing but chaos. But I've just looked at the data in the last 3 major opinion polls, and the take home message is this: They have already gone!
Nearly 80% of the current Tory vote are leavers, and leavers everywhere are now overwhelmingly no-dealers. Have a look in the data, it is truly shocking. Broken down into social class, current Tory support is highest in DE, and least in AB. When broken down into income, it's almost linear - the higher your income, the less likely you are to vote Tory! Now have a look at Lib Dem support, and the exact opposite is true. It seems your classic Clarke/Rudd remainer Tory - the educated affluent buiseness family with kids in private school - is already firmly in the Lib Dem camp. Yet Boris still gets support in the mid 30s, easily enough for a majority.
Can you see where I'm coming from? So long as Boris pursues a hard brexit, he wins the next election. The only way this doesn't work is if there's mass tactical voting in the remain camp, but considering the entire political map has been upended, it is close to impossible to know how to vote in a tactical way, even if you wanted to.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
To If it be your will. That didn't wind me up at all, not least because I agree with most of what you say. The poorer sections of British society have been horribly abused over the last forty years or so and the anger felt is only to be expected. But from what I can see that anger has been pointed entirely in the wrong direction. Instead of the Blairites and the Tories who caused their distress, the anger is channelled into nationalist sentiments directed at immigrants and the EU.
It's the oldest right wing trick in the book. When the poorest people are angry at their deprivation give them a flag to wave and blame the 'other' thereby creating a distraction from the real cause of poverty. It is the cheerleaders for Brexit, people like Johnson, Gove and Rees-Mogg who have been most responsible for poverty and deprivation, and somehow, perversely, they have become the leaders of that section of society.
I fully sympathise with your view that leaving the EU would enable a fuller implementation of socialist policies, but I just don't think that is going to happen. The establishment elite is too powerful. They will hang on to their largest slice of the cake whatever happens and if the cake gets smaller they are not going to share it out more evenly. They will make sure they keep their wealth and leave the poorest people with the same small slice of even smaller cake.
It's the oldest right wing trick in the book. When the poorest people are angry at their deprivation give them a flag to wave and blame the 'other' thereby creating a distraction from the real cause of poverty. It is the cheerleaders for Brexit, people like Johnson, Gove and Rees-Mogg who have been most responsible for poverty and deprivation, and somehow, perversely, they have become the leaders of that section of society.
I fully sympathise with your view that leaving the EU would enable a fuller implementation of socialist policies, but I just don't think that is going to happen. The establishment elite is too powerful. They will hang on to their largest slice of the cake whatever happens and if the cake gets smaller they are not going to share it out more evenly. They will make sure they keep their wealth and leave the poorest people with the same small slice of even smaller cake.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I think I asked you (or it may have been someone else on here) this before but it got lost in amongst other posts.If it be your will wrote:Oh yes, sorry, I got distracted with my tirade against Erasmus.
It's not. It's a hopeless situation for the left now, I think. But if you're asking why I pursued it in the first place I've done it to death on here already. But in brief I maintain that socialism is basically impossible as a member of the EU. You can redistribute wealth, that's fine, but if you want public monopoly ownership of rail and utilities, and make them democratically accountable rather than accountable to the market, it's simply not allowed (4th Railway Package and 3rd Energy Package respectively). If you want to stop the mass outsourcing of the public sector into private operations, it's not allowed (Public Procurement Rules), if you want to curtail abusive, continent-wide labour arbitrage, it's not allowed ('Four Freedoms'), if you want the might of the state to help nurture start up industries that might one day benefit us all, or support crucial, strategic national industries (e.g. steel) it's not allowed (State Aid Rules).
Before anyone says I'm wrong, please, leave it. I'm tired of making the same arguments over and over again, and have given up. I'm just watching it all as a neutral observer these days.
Are there any large countries that have public monopoly ownership of railways, utilities, etc? Nothing springs to mind immediately but it's not something I've paid a great deal of attention to.
There are obviously countries who've done it badly but are there any recent success stories or would we be setting the blueprint?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Yes.Lancasterclaret wrote:Are you being serious?
If JC the leader of the opposition, becomes PM then he has done so on the votes of 400 people, somewhat less than the 64,000 people voting for a new leader of the party in government.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
No I still care about helping the less fortunate in our society. I just don't believe someone who is fit and able to work, but cant be bothered is less fortunate, just idle. The more of the welfare fund these people take, the less their is left for those who are in need.Devils_Advocate wrote:So what you are saying is that you have left the Labour party (as you have grown older) and not that they have left you like you have previously claimed.
Imo the working class man identifies himself with the NHS, the Welfare State, fair and decent pensions. He doesn't identify with the politically correct rantings stop calling a blackboard a blackboard, as it might offend for example. He doesn't stand alongside a politician that refuses to respect men and women who gave their lives protecting the freedoms he enjoys. Or shouts support for terrorists who murder British citizens in our very own country. He appreciates that civil rights gay, religious or colour are important, but he doesn't see it as the be all and end all. It genuinely feels as though Labour doesn't care about working class man, unless he is gay or ethnic or a migrant. Indigenous working class man is just taken for granted. They'll vote Red just like their fathers and grandparents before them. Times have changed, but old Labour is going backwards.
I'm genuinely saddened by it, and one day it will come to its senses, but until Labour moves to the right they are doomed.
Last edited by Colburn_Claret on Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
https://fullfact.org/immigration/labour ... on-policy/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;summitclaret wrote:And their answer now to healing the UK ( see new policy) is unlimited encouraged immigration whether there are jobs, houses, health services and schools or not. Talk about ignoring your heartlands.
Someone else in the establishment media echo chamber. You need to get out in the real world, and find out what the policy actually is rather than repeating rubbish. The population of Burnley has fallen by nearly half what it was a hundred years ago. You cannot tell me that Burnley is too full, and overloaded with people. And the social and economic problems that led many Labour supporters to vote to leave were caused by government austerity - not immigration. Of course neither "call me Dave" nor Clegg were going to hold their hands up and claim responsibility, so the lie was largely left unaddressed. Again consider the argument: "immigrants are coming here and putting our school / health / social service infrastructure under pressure" - no, the government underfunded these areas over the last six years. "Immigrants are coming here and undercutting pay, and working conditions" - no, the government is not legislating this area sufficiently. "Immigrants are distorting the housing market, and making it harder for British people to get on the property ladder" - there is some merit to this, but it's not the ordinary immigrant families who come here to live that is the problem, but the huge amounts of foreign money that buys up vast tracts of UK real estate as an investment. And what has the government done to ease this pressure? Nothing.
More immigrants have come to London than any other area, so if immigration was bad for ordinary people you'd expect London to have voted heavily to leave, but it did the opposite. I think it's completely right for political parties to listen to the concerns of ordinary people, however it's not at all right for parties to perpetuate myths, and bolster prejudices.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
AndrewJB wrote:https://fullfact.org/immigration/labour ... on-policy/
Someone else in the establishment media echo chamber. You need to get out in the real world, and find out what the policy actually is rather than repeating rubbish. The population of Burnley has fallen by nearly half what it was a hundred years ago. You cannot tell me that Burnley is too full, and overloaded with people. And the social and economic problems that led many Labour supporters to vote to leave were caused by government austerity - not immigration. Of course neither "call me Dave" nor Clegg were going to hold their hands up and claim responsibility, so the lie was largely left unaddressed. Again consider the argument: "immigrants are coming here and putting our school / health / social service infrastructure under pressure" - no, the government underfunded these areas over the last six years. "Immigrants are coming here and undercutting pay, and working conditions" - no, the government is not legislating this area sufficiently. "Immigrants are distorting the housing market, and making it harder for British people to get on the property ladder" - there is some merit to this, but it's not the ordinary immigrant families who come here to live that is the problem, but the huge amounts of foreign money that buys up vast tracts of UK real estate as an investment. And what has the government done to ease this pressure? Nothing.
More immigrants have come to London than any other area, so if immigration was bad for ordinary people you'd expect London to have voted heavily to leave, but it did the opposite. I think it's completely right for political parties to listen to the concerns of ordinary people, however it's not at all right for parties to perpetuate myths, and bolster prejudices.
"Something quite remarkable happened in London in the first decade of the new millennium. The number of white British people in the capital fell by 620,000 - equivalent to the entire population of Glasgow moving out."
Why have the white British left London? - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21511904" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Some " ordinary people " as you describe them, would probably have been part of the 620,000 people who class themselves as "white British " on the census.
You talk about what youd expect theyd vote for , and whether theyd vote remain or leave.
What you haven't considered is how they voted.
It could be argued they vote with their feet.
They literally voted "Leave".
And they did.......
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I didn't really notice this story when it came out for some reason. However, what is the point of it from Labour's point of view. What are the benefits to Labour, and the country, of this type of proposal? I'd agree that it doesn't say scrap all controls but the suggestion does seem to be they want to make it easier.AndrewJB wrote:https://fullfact.org/immigration/labour ... on-policy/
Someone else in the establishment media echo chamber. You need to get out in the real world, and find out what the policy actually is rather than repeating rubbish. The population of Burnley has fallen by nearly half what it was a hundred years ago. You cannot tell me that Burnley is too full, and overloaded with people. And the social and economic problems that led many Labour supporters to vote to leave were caused by government austerity - not immigration. Of course neither "call me Dave" nor Clegg were going to hold their hands up and claim responsibility, so the lie was largely left unaddressed. Again consider the argument: "immigrants are coming here and putting our school / health / social service infrastructure under pressure" - no, the government underfunded these areas over the last six years. "Immigrants are coming here and undercutting pay, and working conditions" - no, the government is not legislating this area sufficiently. "Immigrants are distorting the housing market, and making it harder for British people to get on the property ladder" - there is some merit to this, but it's not the ordinary immigrant families who come here to live that is the problem, but the huge amounts of foreign money that buys up vast tracts of UK real estate as an investment. And what has the government done to ease this pressure? Nothing.
More immigrants have come to London than any other area, so if immigration was bad for ordinary people you'd expect London to have voted heavily to leave, but it did the opposite. I think it's completely right for political parties to listen to the concerns of ordinary people, however it's not at all right for parties to perpetuate myths, and bolster prejudices.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Or the number of constituencies that voted Tory and Labour, or even the number of people who voted Tory or Labour.martin_p wrote:Only if you want to compare apples with pears. It either the number of votes of party members they got to become leader of their party, in which case Corbyn got over three times as many as Johnson, or its the number of MPs required for confidence in the commons which would be the same for both, 326 (I think).
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
SalouClaret wrote:Cummings this week, "This is a walk in the park compared to the referendum. We are enjoying this. We are going to leave and we are going to win," he said.
Cummings this morning when questioned as he left his home in London said: "Who said it would be a walk in the park?"
Told that he had made the remark, he replied: "No."
Now I know where Ringo gets his contradicting from!
" "
"Schooled!!1!1111!!"
Get me on that bloody radio!
I'm sure the dark prince of machiavellian political maneuvering, Dominic Cummings. Will have endless sleepless nights when he reads this football based message board!
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Ok, if you want to do it that way. At the last election precisely 0 people voted for Boris Johnson as PM and 12,878,460 voted for Jeremy Corbyn as PM.Burnley Ace wrote:Or the number of constituencies that voted Tory and Labour, or even the number of people who voted Tory or Labour.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I don’t know the word severe enough to convey to you how much I do not want Jeremy Corbyn to be in charge of this country, but before the last couple of months I would have known that I would just have To accept the result of a democratic election where as now I believe that I have the right to not accept it just because I do not agree with the result.martin_p wrote:Ok, if you want to do it that way. At the last election precisely 0 people voted for Boris Johnson as PM and 12,878,460 voted for Jeremy Corbyn as PM.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Devolution is not sustainable unless an English Parliament is set up and we can all vote for EDL candidates to sit in the the UK Parliament. Only way we’d have parity in there.
Scots vote to remain in the UK then elect nationalists to represent them in the UK Parliament
Now they will join up with Jeremy Corbyn in an IRA love in and a hatred of all that is British/English
Scots vote to remain in the UK then elect nationalists to represent them in the UK Parliament
Now they will join up with Jeremy Corbyn in an IRA love in and a hatred of all that is British/English
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
And what exactly will not accepting the result of a general election entail?BleedingClaret wrote:I don’t know the word severe enough to convey to you how much I do not want Jeremy Corbyn to be in charge of this country, but before the last couple of months I would have known that I would just have To accept the result of a democratic election where as now I believe that I have the right to not accept it just because I do not agree with the result.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Just one example of Jeremy Corbyn’s alleged hatred of all things British would be nice. And by the way it’d have to go some way to beat our current PM’s desire to crash the economy by forcing a no deal Brexit.BleedingClaret wrote:Devolution is not sustainable unless an English Parliament is set up and we can all vote for EDL candidates to sit in the the UK Parliament. Only way we’d have parity in there.
Scots vote to remain in the UK then elect nationalists to represent them in the UK Parliament
Now they will join up with Jeremy Corbyn in an IRA love in and a hatred of all that is British/English
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Remainers seem to have manipulated us into a situation where a BJ No Deal exit is viewed as worse than a communist in number 10.
A worse case scenario for BJ would be the loss of our entire car industry and bad damage to other sectors causing hundreds of thousands to lose their jobs. Not what I want - I want a deal, but it is deal or no deal (in no deal I see the above scenario as maybe 5% likely with less severe damage more probable).
A worse case scenario for JC would be the end of aspiration, the end of growth, millions out of work, hatred everywhere, the pound crashing, no more foreign holidays......I could go on. I see that as 25% likely.
That the usual suspects on this board will no doubt feel they can challenge those comparisons perfectly proves my point. JC would ruin our country, BJ would simply take it in a ditection unwanted by 48% of us. No comparison.
A worse case scenario for BJ would be the loss of our entire car industry and bad damage to other sectors causing hundreds of thousands to lose their jobs. Not what I want - I want a deal, but it is deal or no deal (in no deal I see the above scenario as maybe 5% likely with less severe damage more probable).
A worse case scenario for JC would be the end of aspiration, the end of growth, millions out of work, hatred everywhere, the pound crashing, no more foreign holidays......I could go on. I see that as 25% likely.
That the usual suspects on this board will no doubt feel they can challenge those comparisons perfectly proves my point. JC would ruin our country, BJ would simply take it in a ditection unwanted by 48% of us. No comparison.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
how about not back the referendum to leave?
how about not singing the National Anthem
how about not agreeing with the Monarchy and wanting to stop funding it
how about not singing the National Anthem
how about not agreeing with the Monarchy and wanting to stop funding it
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
The current government is already well on the way to delivering at least half of that!CrosspoolClarets wrote: A worse case scenario for JC would be the end of aspiration, the end of growth, millions out of work, hatred everywhere, the pound crashing, no more foreign holidays......I could go on. I see that as 25% likely.
This 52% of us that want a no deal Brexit, where you getting those figures from then?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
1. Not being able to condemn the IRA Manchester bombings.martin_p wrote:Just one example of Jeremy Corbyn’s alleged hatred of all things British would be nice. And by the way it’d have to go some way to beat our current PM’s desire to crash the economy by forcing a no deal Brexit.
2. Blaming the latest Manchester attack on UK foreign policy.
3. Quite openly wanting to scrap the monarchy.
4. Welcoming open borders with open arms.
Stop asking easy questions Martin. You are defending the indefensible.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
So your measure of Britishness includes wanting to leave the EU, always singing the national anthem and loving the queen and not doing those things is ‘hating Britain’. I think you'll find a lot don’t pass your test!KateR wrote:how about not back the referendum to leave?
how about not singing the National Anthem
how about not agreeing with the Monarchy and wanting to stop funding it
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