Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Spijed]

From Guardian live update:

"Visitors to the executive suites floor of the Midland hotel in Manchester, where the government’s top people held court this week, have been told there is already an expectation that we will soon be in the next phase of this crisis: Boris Johnson refusing to sign the letter requesting a Brexit delay as required by the Benn act.

No 10 sources say that they then expect that issue to go to the high court on 21 October and the supreme court a couple of days later. (The government’s favoured date for a general election is said to be 28 November – there is “a real keenness” not to have an election in December, No 10 sources have said.)"

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status ... 1562213376" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Former EU negotiator thoughts on the UK offer.

Not looking good, certainly can't see the EU going for this when they know Johnson can't guarantee to deliver it through Parliament.

[aggi]

I heard from someone who is very well placed that Johnson, et al aren't actually aware of what the loophole is in the Benn act. They've been briefing that there is a loophole to confuse matters (and in case they do work it out) but don't have a legal plan.

[Lancasterclaret]

I heard from someone who is very well placed that Johnson, et al aren't actually aware of what the loophole is in the Benn act. They've been briefing that there is a loophole to confuse matters (and in case they do work it out) but don't have a legal plan.

Think I've posted it already, but the best thing to come out of the conference is that Johnson et al are not going to break the law.

They will do anything to avoid having to do it, but they have drawn the line at that.

[KateR]

So, have people had the chance to read Boris's letter and explanation note regarding the Irish issue/backstop?

what thoughts do you have in simplistic terms, it appears on the face of it as if it is an honest attempt to get beyond this impasse but do appreciate others thoughts inputs?

For me I have to say that I do not understand what happens after this in terms of "if the EU agrees to go down this route" we then leave 31 Oct but have 2 years to negotiate the final deal along all aspects of leaving. I believe it is not a modification to the May deal which has many other fundamental issues that would see that blocked, therefore it appears as though it is rather let's agree this point today, move to the transition and then work out the minutia of all aspects of leaving. I see numerous treaties coming out of this, therefore second question:

The law was passed whereby leaving the EU had to be agreed by parliament and not the government, does this law end 01 Nov (assuming we leave) or does it also relate to every "treaty" that will need to be negotiated and agreed by parliament during the transition period?

[AndyClaret]

https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status ... 1562213376

Former EU negotiator thoughts on the UK offer.

Not looking good, certainly can't see the EU going for this when they know Johnson can't guarantee to deliver it through Parliament.

Well the ERG and the DUP are onside.

[Mala591]

Interesting proposals:

EU/UK single market border down the Irish Sea - NI to remain in the EU single market.

Customs border across Ireland - majority of customs checks at origin and destination of goods but other checks needed which won't be done at or near the border.

[summitclaret]

The PM'S letter says it is a basis for negotiation so don't be surprised if we give somewhat and he will of course have allowed for that. Similarly the EU will react against it at first.

The very good news is that unlike May he appears to have got the DUP on board already. With them will come the ERG. The tory rebels that have not changed parties are already saying that are likely to vote for any deal as they have before. Remember they won't want an election.

Thr brilliant and unsurprising bit is that it is clear that we want a free trade deal and that we want the PD changing accordingly.

The EU will probably not play ball because of the remoan alliance. However let's be clear. BJ's offer us not unreasonable and if there is not one then this will serve leave well in a GE.

[aggi]

So, have people had the chance to read Boris's letter and explanation note regarding the Irish issue/backstop?

what thoughts do you have in simplistic terms, it appears on the face of it as if it is an honest attempt to get beyond this impasse but do appreciate others thoughts inputs?

For me I have to say that I do not understand what happens after this in terms of "if the EU agrees to go down this route" we then leave 31 Oct but have 2 years to negotiate the final deal along all aspects of leaving. I believe it is not a modification to the May deal which has many other fundamental issues that would see that blocked, therefore it appears as though it is rather let's agree this point today, move to the transition and then work out the minutia of all aspects of leaving. I see numerous treaties coming out of this, therefore second question:

The law was passed whereby leaving the EU had to be agreed by parliament and not the government, does this law end 01 Nov (assuming we leave) or does it also relate to every "treaty" that will need to be negotiated and agreed by parliament during the transition period?

I'm not sure if I was reading it correctly but there seemed to be an opportunity every four years for the DUP to veto the arrangement which doesn't seem like it's going to fly.

It also seems to add a hefty admin and infrastructure cost to businesses. I imagine a lot of companies would go to the wall if they had to bear these costs but there is no suggestion of the government bearing them (and I assume that the Irish government wouldn't want to bear the cost for the companies on their side of the border).

I can't see them being agreed, it may be a starting point but I would be surprised if the issues could be ironed out before the end of October.

[Lancasterclaret]

Well the ERG and the DUP are onside.

Well, Mays deal started off with support until it was properly analysed so that doesn't mean a right lot.

Essentially it appears to be getting rid of the backstop, which won't be happening so its dead before it gets off the ground.

Now this is where Johnsons weaknesses in Parliament are actually having an effect (first time in three years you can say that!)

Polls are leaning towards remain

Parliament has blocked "No Deal"

Parliament have control over what to do next (due to Johnsons actions)

Its not a good plan, but without the parliament and country behind him, it makes it even worse from an EU point of view.

Throw in the US intervention in Congress about safeguarding the GFA as a priority and there isn't anywhere for this go.

[Spijed]

BJ's offer us not unreasonable and if there is not one then this will serve leave well in a GE.

How will he get round the "We will definitely be leaving on the 31st October come what may, deal or no-deal" when it comes to an election?

[AndrewJB]

Well, Mays deal started off with support until it was properly analysed so that doesn't mean a right lot.

Essentially it appears to be getting rid of the backstop, which won't be happening so its dead before it gets off the ground.

Now this is where Johnsons weaknesses in Parliament are actually having an effect (first time in three years you can say that!)

Polls are leaning towards remain

Parliament has blocked "No Deal"

Parliament have control over what to do next (due to Johnsons actions)

Its not a good plan, but without the parliament and country behind him, it makes it even worse from an EU point of view.

Throw in the US intervention in Congress about safeguarding the GFA as a priority and there isn't anywhere for this go.

It took May a good year before the country began regarding her as crap, and then a long slow spiral into the position of worst PM in recent times. Johnson could well have captured this title by Christmas - and quite a feat too. Could add comedy value to his memoirs - sort of like a political version of John Otway (the singer / "musician").

[Lancasterclaret]

The PM'S letter says it is a basis for negotiation so don't be surprised if we give somewhat and he will of course have allowed for that. Similarly the EU will react against it at first.

The very good news is that unlike May he appears to have got the DUP on board already. With them will come the ERG. The tory rebels that have not changed parties are already saying that are likely to vote for any deal as they have before. Remember they won't want an election.

Thr brilliant and unsurprising bit is that it is clear that we want a free trade deal and that we want the PD changing accordingly.

The EU will probably not play ball because of the remoan alliance. However let's be clear. BJ's offer us not unreasonable and if there is not one then this will serve leave well in a GE.

It is unreasonable if you don't back Brexit or have a job to do on reporting it.

Pretty much universal so far

Ultra remainers - against (not a shock!)

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1179363955317362688" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ulster Unionists - against

https://uup.org/news/6253/21/Prime-Mini ... ZTHfkZKhhH" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Corbyn - against

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics- ... nel=social" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NI manufacturing body - against

https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/sta ... 8637214721" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NI retail organisation - against

https://twitter.com/MichaelAodhan/statu ... 9895452675" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PM Foster - Daily Telegraph reckons its a non-starter

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 7102674944" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But on the plus side, Johnson didn't say "take it or leave it" in his conference speech so the EU will take that as a sign he's more flexible than he's letting on.

But it looks a hard sell from here, especially if its not go support in NI & Ireland.

[AndrewJB]

How will he get round the "We will definitely be leaving on the 31st October come what may, deal or no-deal" when it comes to an election?

I think he'll try to blame the opposition he enabled by sacking his own MPs. Surely though some of his leadership rivals will look at that and ponder what it might have been if they had chosen to make outlandish promises they couldn't actually make happen, during the leadership election.

[AndyClaret]

well the EU are willing to engage with it.

[Lancasterclaret]

Straight away though

- Governance of the backstop an issue (UK have sold it to the DUP as them having a veto through Stormont, EU not likely to agree to that)
- GFA (obviously!)
- Customs rules

ends with "we must have a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop : preventing a hard border, preserving North-South co-operation and the all-island economy, and protecting the EU SM and Irelands place in it"

Best bit is the highlighting of the EU transparency policy. Any UK attempts to do sneaky deals won't work because the EU will make them public straight away.

In short, we'll talk but the issues are still there.

[martin_p]

well the EU are willing to engage with it.

That’s pretty much what Katya Adler, the BBC Europe correspondent predicted the response would be. It’s essentially a holding response.

[AndyClaret]

Straight away though

- Governance of the backstop an issue (UK have sold it to the DUP as them having a veto through Stormont, EU not likely to agree to that)
- GFA (obviously!)
- Customs rules

ends with "we must have a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop : preventing a hard border, preserving North-South co-operation and the all-island economy, and protecting the EU SM and Irelands place in it"

Best bit is the highlighting of the EU transparency policy. Any UK attempts to do sneaky deals won't work because the EU will make them public straight away.

In short, we'll talk but the issues are still there.

Agreed, but the so called experts were saying it wouldn't fly.

[Lancasterclaret]

Agreed, but the so called experts were saying it wouldn't fly.

Because it won't fly in its current form.

If the UK and the EU are willing to compromise on certain aspects, then it might.

But where is the compromise that gets past the red lines on either side?

[summitclaret]

How will he get round the "We will definitely be leaving on the 31st October come what may, deal or no-deal" when it comes to an election?

It won't matter by then. He will have done enough to convince people that he was serious and thwarted by thd remainer HOC.

[fidelcastro]

It's a complete ruse by Boris.

He knows full well that this won't get through, because what he and the hard brexiteers really want is no deal.

They can then say that they tried, and it's all the EU's fault.

The gullible public, the ones who voted leave, will then swallow this and still vote for him at the next election

People really are that stupid!

[KateR]

I'm not sure if I was reading it correctly but there seemed to be an opportunity every four years for the DUP to veto the arrangement which doesn't seem like it's going to fly.

It also seems to add a hefty admin and infrastructure cost to businesses. I imagine a lot of companies would go to the wall if they had to bear these costs but there is no suggestion of the government bearing them (and I assume that the Irish government wouldn't want to bear the cost for the companies on their side of the border).

I can't see them being agreed, it may be a starting point but I would be surprised if the issues could be ironed out before the end of October.

Thank you for the response, much appreciated

I am glad to see that EU have not rejected it out of hand and "seem" willing to sit down and discuss and hopefully they can reach an agreement, would be fairly confident that in 10, 20 days what comes out (if at all) as an agreement will not be identical.

Yes some changes costs etc. will be incurred but that was always the case when leaving, I believe there were statements to the effect of government helping with set up costs. I do of course expect all remain groups to jump on it and point out the flaws, for me this is immaterial to the bigger picture of agreeing in principal to moving to the transition phase.

I do see NI having the ability to leave at certain junctions could be a stumbling block, however where it says the timing I am confident if that was changed to say every 5 years they could review with a view to opt out then I think it would also be agreed.

I think it needs to be the NI assembly though that has the say so and no veto should be allowed for DUP to unilaterally say no, we're leaving.

While Boris/government has alienated some people I do believe many will gather around a potential deal to get it through and not risk, no deal, GE in the near future, will there be enough I do not know.

At least it is something for people to review and see whether they can live with it.

It will also create more jobs on the mainland I think which might also be a good thing but that's just an aside

[summitclaret]

Straight away though

- Governance of the backstop an issue (UK have sold it to the DUP as them having a veto through Stormont, EU not likely to agree to that)
- GFA (obviously!)
- Customs rules

ends with "we must have a legally operational solution that meets all the objectives of the backstop : preventing a hard border, preserving North-South co-operation and the all-island economy, and protecting the EU SM and Irelands place in it"

Best bit is the highlighting of the EU transparency policy. Any UK attempts to do sneaky deals won't work because the EU will make them public straight away.

In short, we'll talk but the issues are still there.

Well I was not far out then. We were told for years that the WA could not change. The bit about meeting the objectives means imo that it will be changing.

[KateR]

It's a complete ruse by Boris.

He knows full well that this won't get through, because what he and the hard brexiteers really want is no deal.

They can then say that they tried, and it's all the EU's fault.

The gullible public, the ones who voted leave, will then swallow this and still vote for him at the next election

People really are that stupid!

totally agree with your last sentence only, rest is just toch, try to take your remain blinkers off and look at this objectively.

[Lancasterclaret]

Thank you for the response, much appreciated

I am glad to see that EU have not rejected it out of hand and "seem" willing to sit down and discuss and hopefully they can reach an agreement, would be fairly confident that in 10, 20 days what comes out (if at all) as an agreement will not be identical.

Yes some changes costs etc. will be incurred but that was always the case when leaving, I believe there were statements to the effect of government helping with set up costs. I do of course expect all remain groups to jump on it and point out the flaws, for me this is immaterial to the bigger picture of agreeing in principal to moving to the transition phase.

I do see NI having the ability to leave at certain junctions could be a stumbling block, however where it says the timing I am confident if that was changed to say every 5 years they could review with a view to opt out then I think it would also be agreed.

I think it needs to be the NI assembly though that has the say so and no veto should be allowed for DUP to unilaterally say no, we're leaving.

While Boris/government has alienated some people I do believe many will gather around a potential deal to get it through and not risk, no deal, GE in the near future, will there be enough I do not know.

At least it is something for people to review and see whether they can live with it.

It will also create more jobs on the mainland I think which might also be a good thing but that's just an aside

Don't get too excited by the idea that the EU are sitting down to discuss it.

if it was something that genuinely had a real chance, then they'd be in closed talks right now.

As Martin says, its a reply that screams

"Your call is important to us, please hold while we wait to connect you"

There is still far too much distance between the two sides, simply because the red lines for the UK and the red lines for the EU are so incompatible.

[fidelcastro]

totally agree with your last sentence only, rest is just toch, try to take your remain blinkers off and look at this objectively.

You'll see.

[Spijed]

It won't matter by then. He will have done enough to convince people that he was serious and thwarted by thd remainer HOC.

But it won't look good for him as he promised to take the UK out of the EU.

...and failed.

[summitclaret]

It's a complete ruse by Boris.

He knows full well that this won't get through, because what he and the hard brexiteers really want is no deal.

They can then say that they tried, and it's all the EU's fault.

The gullible public, the ones who voted leave, will then swallow this and still vote for him at the next election

People really are that stupid!

He wants a deal. I can't wait for the HOC having to vote for a new deal or get a no deal and for that deal to be harder than they could have had months ago. Will serve the lot of them right. They are also playing into BJ's hands rw the GE which he will win and have a mandate for a frd

[KateR]

But it won't look good for him as he promised to take the UK out of the EU.

...and failed.

I simply can not believe that you actually really believe what you wrote, I like many of your posts but sometimes you say something that is completely against what I believe, politicians failing to do what they say they will do is a time honored tradition, of course a minority will scream to the heavens about it but really.............

[Mala591]

I predict that a deal will emerge from the latest UK proposals

[fidelcastro]

He wants a deal. I can't wait for the HOC having to vote for a new deal or get a no deal and for that deal to be harder than they could have had months ago. Will serve the lot of them right. They are also playing into BJ's hands rw the GE which he will win and have a mandate for a frd

He doesn't want a deal. He wants to leave without one, just like the ERG do.

Bizarrely, much of the public want no deal too. In other words, they're prepared to back something that will make them poorer.

I can't for the life of me understand that.

[KateR]

Don't get too excited by the idea that the EU are sitting down to discuss it.

if it was something that genuinely had a real chance, then they'd be in closed talks right now.

As Martin says, its a reply that screams

"Your call is important to us, please hold while we wait to connect you"

There is still far too much distance between the two sides, simply because the red lines for the UK and the red lines for the EU are so incompatible.

I am not getting to excited, please trust me on that one, however I do feel it was a small step in the right direction, I also said I do not think that it will be agreed in it's present form but I do feel if daily meeting are held to say what is and what is not acceptable to both sides then there can be true negotiation. This main issue for me moving forward and I feel all remain supports should be afraid is that this will break down and then we move to there is nothing else that can be done, so it's now no deal versus extension, obviously I see an extension. However I do believe that this will be shortly followed by a GE, this would put at risk a far greater majority for government and the ability to swiftly force through a no deal since the EU are not willing to negotiate. This means that Ireland will have a border, the one thing they do not want, this is a very real risk and will be in numerous scenario/war games planning.

Of course I realize it can be a very different outcome however that above is a real risk of happening and people will be putting mitigation strategies together. Whereas if there can be a compromise around this offer then it delays the chance of a border by years and the possibility to stop it happening for the foreseeable future.

[Lowbankclaret]

A beautiful bird Lowbank, what breed is it?

They are called blue laced Wyandottes.

[If it be your will]

Cheers, that's an interesting answer. The Scandinavian companies would have been my first guess.

I agree there was much more in the way of nationalised companies in years gone by although I'm not convinced, even if we left the EU, that the world is still the same place. With the likely obligations of new trade agreements do you think that we'd be able to be heavily nationalised and still trade within the world? I remember reading an article a while ago suggesting that state aid rules roughly in line with the EU's would be necessary to agree a trade deal with them (obviously that hasn't been an issue for a long time as our state aid spending is about a third or so of Germany, France, etc but would put a crimp in your hopes).

Why do you think countries have moved away from that kind of model? You cite Maastricht but obviously it was those self-same countries who came up with Maastricht so there must have been something prior to that.

(I'm not sure which debating tactic you're referring to.)

Definitely not Scandinavia - not any more, anyway. Sweden, say, has taken several steps to break up state monopolies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_g ... _of_Sweden" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and, by and large, run themselves in line with EU principles nowadays. They still have a redistributive tax system, but 'economic socialism', where strategic interests are owned by the public and run in the interests of the public, is as dead in Sweden as it is here nowadays. Their redistributive tax system is under pressure now as well (see recent elections https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ction-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ). The far right campaigned under the slogan that went something like "You can have our welfare state or you can have uncontrolled immigration, but you cannot have both" and did shockingly well. The left had little to counter it (other than to appeal to common decency) because at a fundamental level, the far right - sadly - had a point.

Why did everyone sign Maastricht? Theories abound. There was a sense at the time, shortly after the Berlin wall fell, that the 'natural' way of doing things was to have a market economy with minimal state interference, open borders, and free movement of capital and labour - forever ( the period dubbed "The end of history"). This threw away the phenomenal economic and developmental success the 'old' structure achieved out of the ashes of WW2. It is absolutely fine to throw this out and try something else, that is democracy. Trouble is Maastricht locked it in, with no sunset clause. 2008 has proved this model to be cursed with problems we couldn't possibly have predicted in 1992, when everything appeared rosy. But now it's too late. Without unanimity, Maastricht goes on and on. Crazy, when you think about it.

Had Maastricht had a sunset clause of 20 years, there's no way on earth all 28 countries would have re-ratified it in 2012. It's permanence was a terrible mistake. The only way out now is to leave the EU. Without entertaining that, the left may as well stick to liberalism and identity politics, because economic socialism - the type employed across Europe pre-Maastricht - is not an option anymore. But then I'm forced to admit that Brexit has indeed exposed that most on the 'left' do seem only concerned with these things. It appears there are very few 'economic socialists' about these days.

Lastly, If we sign a permanent trade deal, with no sunset/exit clause, that locks in all the principles of Maastricht, then yes, leaving the EU would be a complete and utter waste of time. I'd hope that wouldn't happen.

[AndyClaret]

He doesn't want a deal. He wants to leave without one, just like the ERG do.

Bizarrely, much of the public want no deal too. In other words, they're prepared to back something that will make them poorer.

I can't for the life of me understand that.

This is simply not true, John Redwood and Suella Braverman have both welcomed the proposals.

[Lancasterclaret]

This is simply not true, John Redwood and Suella Braverman have both welcomed the proposals.

Of course they have!

Its basically not a deal that the EU can agree to.

It sets up a "No Deal" perfectly

[AndyClaret]

Of course they have!

Its basically not a deal that the EU can agree to.

It sets up a "No Deal" perfectly

Also welcomed by brexit hard man Steve Baker, whereas Farage is spitting feathers.

[Lancasterclaret]

Also welcomed by brexit hard man Steve Baker, whereas Farage is spitting feathers.

Farage knows that the PM strategy of "Our Deal or No Deal" chops him off at the knees.

[Lowbankclaret]

EU Brexit steering committee say it’s not acceptable.

That’s great news.

Let’s see how Boris now enacts No Deal.

[Spijed]

Farage knows that the PM strategy of "Our Deal or No Deal" chops him off at the knees.

Tom Harwood is deluded if he thinks Farage would be delighted if the Conservatives deliver a clean Brexit.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11847 ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[KateR]

EU Brexit steering committee say it’s not acceptable.

That’s great news.

Let’s see how Boris now enacts No Deal.

I certainly do not think it's great news, am also surprised by this as latest I read was they would be sitting down to discuss these proposals very shortly.

If that is the EU's dismissive answer then I think they are playing a very risky game indeed.

[AndrewJB]

He wants a deal. I can't wait for the HOC having to vote for a new deal or get a no deal and for that deal to be harder than they could have had months ago. Will serve the lot of them right. They are also playing into BJ's hands rw the GE which he will win and have a mandate for a frd

When has Johnson called the election for? Oh, right, sorry, he can't. He doesn't have enough support in parliament because he got rid of over twenty of his own MPs. And why is he not dead in a ditch like he said? Eh, he lied?

Before there's a general election I'm quite sure we'll see a whole series of clips linked together in which Johnson solemnly promises we'll leave the EU on the 31st October - "do or die" (just like how "strong and stable" sank May), and over time a lot of people will begin to wonder why he actually made that promise, if it was beyond his ability to keep it. Already anomalies have surfaced about the way his American lady-friend was awarded government money, and that looks like something that could run and run, and no doubt some journalists might remind people about his casual dalliance with the truth which resulted in him being fired as a journalist. People who are convinced Tories will ignore it all, but lots of ordinary older voters might be learning all of this for the first time - from their own adult children and grandchildren - and they could be turned off him.

This is what I think could happen before an election. A kind of softening up process.

[summitclaret]

EU Brexit steering committee say it’s not acceptable.

That’s great news.

Let’s see how Boris now enacts No Deal.

and the chair is. You have guessed the loveable Belgium liberal -GV

[Lancasterclaret]

and the chair is. You have guessed the loveable Belgium liberal -GV

You both need to calm down a bit.

Initial response it just that, an initial response.

[AndyClaret]

20 plus Labour Leavers on board as well, that's majority terrority, puts the pressure on the EU now.

[summitclaret]

You both need to calm down a bit.

Initial response it just that, an initial response.

I am perfectly calm thanks. GV is in the ******** to brexit camp.

[Lancasterclaret]

20 plus Labour Leavers on board as well, that's majority terrority, puts the pressure on the EU now.

20?

Last I heard it was three

[summitclaret]

20 plus Labour Leavers on board as well, that's majority terrority, puts the pressure on the EU now.

Source please Andy.

[Lancasterclaret]

I am perfectly calm thanks. GV is in the ******** to brexit camp.

And then you'll understand that they have just released a statement saying "we are looking at it"

Because its full of stuff that wouldn't fly before this, its not hard to draw a negative conclusion, but they are a fair way away from that.

I think Ireland have said "Not acceptable" in the last few minutes, but still its early to calling it (even though I agree that they will reject it!)

[Lowbankclaret]

You both need to calm down a bit.

Initial response it just that, an initial response.

With a list of reasons why it’s not acceptable in the morning.