willsclarets wrote:Well, firstly the objective of producing this evidence was in response to Colburn's assertion that there was an appetite across member states to leave the EU. I still await his response to this, and what evidence he has to back up that assertion.
If I've read you right, you're trying to interpret this survey in a way that supports the idea that EU support has risen as a direct result of the prospect the UK is leaving? And, that if we revoke article 50, the prospect of the UK "rejoining" will see a reverse of that trend. Furthermore, as a result this therefore strengthens the argument we should leave quietly? Well blow me down, I have to applaud the creativity with which you've used that data Paul.
Hi wills, thanks for your comments.
So, way, way back even before June-2016 I have commented that the UK is "out of step" with a lot of the plans of other EU member states. We can see this in the euro - and the UK being outside the eurozone. If you are an "avid EU activity follower" or someone like me who's work has brought them into contact with EU debate and proposals and counter-proposals you will know that there are many times when there are divergent views. Often these views have seen the UK on one side and many of the other large member states on the other.
I believe the divergence of views is acknowledged by many who post on here. Often these posters state "well, the UK can use it's veto" whenever the EU proposes something we don't like.
I'm a "believer in the EU project." I'd love that some time in the future the nations of Europe could all work together a lot more closely and do all the great things that a major group of nations can achieve. But, I don't think that time is any time soon and I think the current set up of the EU is creating problems in the way that "Brussels political ambitions" are being pursued.
So, I worry that the UK being out of step with the EU (i.e. other member states) and vetoing their aims will result in increasing frustrations - and negative outcomes for the EU, as well as, of course, negative outcomes for the UK. Much better, therefore, for the EU if the UK "steps aside" and becomes a friendly ex-member state, supporting the EU from the outside. And, being a link between the EU and all those other parts of the world where the UK has strong heritage links, including members of the Commonwealth and many other nations.
I would argue that for the EU to be healthy it must be comfortable to agree to one or more member states exiting the EU and being on the outside with friendship. This would be the case whether it was, as now, the UK brexiting, or whether the UK was firmly in (imagine if "remain" had won in 2016) and it was another member state who was now electing to leave.
I hope I'm not making the mistake of linking the UK's prospective departure from the EU as directly making the EU more popular in the rEU. That would be sad if the UK was so unpopular. Of course, simple stats, we all know that if you remove an outlier then the popularity of the remaining member states will show a higher average score.
No, revoking Art 50 wouldn't directly reverse the trend among the other member states. Maybe the UK vetoing ideas that were popular amongst other members would be a negative, though I'd doubt anything would be "that big" for most of the people living in the EU. I would suggest that the EU being seen to be taking a "friendly" approach to the UK leaving - and demonstrating this "friendly" approach with any other member state that might elect to leave - would be a positive for the popularity of the EU with the electorates in the EU27.
What do you think?