Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Lancasterclaret]

I agree. The absolute best scenario for Brexit Party is the Tories passing a Brexit-in-name-only deal. Even if the deal is without an exit clause, like May's (rendering it illegal to ever fully leave), Farage wouldn't think twice about campaigning on a 'rip up the deal' ticket. This is precisely the path that leads to a Farage PM - and the end of the Conservative Party.

That's why I don't think it will happen.

Please enlighten all of us why its illegal to ever fully leave in the event of Mays Deal?

[martin_p]

I agree. The absolute best scenario for Brexit Party is the Tories passing a Brexit-in-name-only deal. Even if the deal is without an exit clause, like May's (rendering it illegal to ever fully leave), Farage wouldn't think twice about campaigning on a 'rip up the deal' ticket. This is precisely the path that leads to a Farage PM - and the end of the Conservative Party.

That's why I don't think it will happen.

Why does May’s deal ‘render it illegal to ever fully leave’.

Edit - snap!!

[If it be your will]

Lest we forget what all this is about:

Independent international trade policy
Free trade/tariff free trade deal with the EU
Independent legal system
Independent immigration policy
Independent agricultural policy
Independent fisheries policy
No more net payment into the EU

Free travel and movement around Europe is a major loss
Even with a fta there will be more trade friction at EU/UK borders

Anything else?

State Aid Rules, Public Procurement Rules, Vking/Laval Judgments, 4th Railway Package, 3rd Energy Package, mass labour arbitrage, Stability and Growth Pact (aka 'The endless austerity pact')...

Lots to gain for us lefties too, you know!

[If it be your will]

Why does May’s deal ‘render it illegal to ever fully leave’.

Edit - snap!!

Look, you already know this - unless an agreement is reached with the EU in the transition period, we will be subject to all the EU rules forever, without having any say in them. There was no unilateral exit clause in the WA. That's what all this backstop stuff is about, for crying out loud!

Okay, I'm a tiny bit wrong. It says the transition period could be extended to '31st December 20xx' (remember that?), so I suppose the WA agreement would legally expire on 1st Jan 2100. Not quite 'forever' then, I guess. It's still 'forever' for anyone reading this, though.

[aggi]

I agree. The absolute best scenario for Brexit Party is the Tories passing a Brexit-in-name-only deal. Even if the deal is without an exit clause, like May's (rendering it illegal to ever fully leave), Farage wouldn't think twice about campaigning on a 'rip up the deal' ticket. This is precisely the path that leads to a Farage PM - and the end of the Conservative Party.

That's why I don't think it will happen.

I think you're vastly overestimating how concerned a lot of people are about the details of Brexit. Any deal to leave will win over a large number of the "sod it, let's just get it done" crowd and if Johnson can get a few papers like the Sun on board (which is very possible) the deal will be enough for the majority.

The people that need to be won over aren't the likes of the ones on this thread who have strong opinions and have put a lot of though into it, they're not really going to change their mind, it's the man in the street with only a passing interest.

[If it be your will]

I think you're vastly overestimating how concerned a lot of people are about the details of Brexit. Any deal to leave will win over a large number of the "sod it, let's just get it done" crowd and if Johnson can get a few papers like the Sun on board (which is very possible) the deal will be enough for the majority.

The people that need to be won over aren't the likes of the ones on this thread who have strong opinions and have put a lot of though into it, they're not really going to change their mind, it's the man in the street with only a passing interest.

Your guess is as good as mine. This isn't what the Euro elections suggested, though.

[Lancasterclaret]

Your guess is as good as mine. This isn't what the Euro elections suggested, though.

But it is exactly what by-elections for Parliament suggest though.

[Lancasterclaret]

Look, you already know this - unless an agreement is reached with the EU in the transition period, we will be subject to all the EU rules forever, without having any say in them. There was no unilateral exit clause in the WA. That's what all this backstop stuff is about, for crying out loud!

Okay, I'm a tiny bit wrong. It says the transition period could be extended to '31st December 20xx' (remember that?), so I suppose the WA agreement would legally expire on 1st Jan 2100. Not quite 'forever' then, I guess. It's still 'forever' for anyone reading this, though.

Thats not true either though is it?

The backstop only exists till the tech solutions are in place to replace it.

Once the backstop goes, then we go.

It might take a lot longer than some people want, but there will be a tech solution to NI at some stage.

Hell, we might have reached it yesterday.

[summitclaret]

If you think that about Mays deal then you have to think that about Johnsons as well.

Yes fair enough but it only needs to remove the trapstop because the real prize is clarity now on a Canada style ftd now and not May's everything to everyone PD. That's what all put the extreme ERG members gave been fighting for.

[If it be your will]

Thats not true either though is it?

The backstop only exists till the tech solutions are in place to replace it.

Once the backstop goes, then we go.

It might take a lot longer than some people want, but there will be a tech solution to NI at some stage.

Hell, we might have reached it yesterday.

Well, until the EU is satisfied we have the tech solutions! It's 2100, mate...

[martin_p]

Look, you already know this - unless an agreement is reached with the EU in the transition period, we will be subject to all the EU rules forever, without having any say in them. There was no unilateral exit clause in the WA. That's what all this backstop stuff is about, for crying out loud!

Okay, I'm a tiny bit wrong. It says the transition period could be extended to '31st December 20xx' (remember that?), so I suppose the WA agreement would legally expire on 1st Jan 2100. Not quite 'forever' then, I guess. It's still 'forever' for anyone reading this, though.

So when an agreement was reached we could ‘fully leave’ then. Seems it wouldn’t be illegal after all.

[nil_desperandum]

I'm really not clear.
Other than the technical issue of the Irish border / backstop,(which isn't really a part of the Withdrawal Agreement), how is Johnson's "deal" so different to the "May Deal" that the ERG and many posters on here thought was worse than remaining?

[summitclaret]

State Aid Rules, Public Procurement Rules, Vking/Laval Judgments, 4th Railway Package, 3rd Energy Package, mass labour arbitrage, Stability and Growth Pact (aka 'The endless austerity pact')...

Lots to gain for us lefties too, you know!

Then Labou should vote for a deal and then try to convince the public abiut its policies in a GE.

[aggi]

Your guess is as good as mine. This isn't what the Euro elections suggested, though.

Yep, neither of us can really know.

The Euro elections was a pretty low turnout (not far off half of the 2017 GE turnout) which you could argue supports my position that far fewer people care that much.

Also, there were plenty of polls at the time that had people saying they wouldn't vote the same way in a GE. My view has always been that the Brexit party will get a handful of seats at best in a GE. The only way I can see that changing is if Article 50 is unilaterally revoked.

[If it be your will]

So when an agreement was reached we could ‘fully leave’ then. Seems it wouldn’t be illegal after all.

Yes, we can legally leave once the EU says we can. That's correct, yes.

[Quickenthetempo]

Wonder what Labour voters will do who were happy to vote for the Brexit party in places like Burnley?

Is that good for the Tories?

It's not worth my 10 minute walk to the polling station to vote Labour while Cooper and Corbyn are there.

If it's not worth voting for the Brexit party I will leave it at least 4 years and reassess if it's worth voting again.

[martin_p]

Yes, we can legally leave once the EU says we can. That's correct, yes.

Well when there was agreement on both sides. They couldn’t just chuck us out with no deal like they can at the moment. But at least you’ve admitted you misrepresented the deal.

[summitclaret]

Thats not true either though is it?

The backstop only exists till the tech solutions are in place to replace it.

Once the backstop goes, then we go.

It might take a lot longer than some people want, but there will be a tech solution to NI at some stage.

Hell, we might have reached it yesterday.

You missed the bit about until the EU say the solutions exist. That's been the point all along.

[aggi]

On a separate note, Im' surprised we haven't seen a larger amount of Northern Ireland bashing up until now.

[Lancasterclaret]

Well, until the EU is satisfied we have the tech solutions! It's 2100, mate...

And in the meantime, NI has the best investment opportunities in both the UK and the EU. Its a goldmine for NI (which would still be part of the UK, and therefore a goldmine for the UK)

Only someone who won't admit they are wrong is going to think that the EU are going to keep that any longer than they have to.

[If it be your will]

I'm really not clear.
Other than the technical issue of the Irish border / backstop,(which isn't really a part of the Withdrawal Article), how is Johnson's "deal" so different to the "May Deal" that the ERG and many posters on here thought was worse than remaining?

Unless he's removed the backstop, it isn't. And I think Leavers will react accordingly.

[If it be your will]

Well when there was agreement on both sides. They couldn’t just chuck us out with no deal like they can at the moment. But at least you’ve admitted you misrepresented the deal.

!

[willsclarets]

Lest we forget what all this is about:

Independent international trade policy
Free trade/tariff free trade deal with the EU
Independent legal system
Independent immigration policy
Independent agricultural policy
Independent fisheries policy
No more net payment into the EU

Free travel and movement around Europe is a major loss
Even with a fta there will be more trade friction at EU/UK borders

Anything else?

You've listed all those things in a way that they're not interlinked or co-dependent, and making the assumption many of these are positives when they are in many expert's opinion, inferior outcomes to the ones we currently enjoy. Is an independent trade policy from scratch better than the collective bargaining power of the world's largest economy? Is an FTA with the Uk's biggest market in any way comparative to the benefits of full EU integration? Is the (over-exaggerated) net payment to the EU offset by economic gains we make by being in the EU? Making something "independent" from an economic point of view doesn't make it better by proxy does it?

[If it be your will]

Then Labou should vote for a deal and then try to convince the public abiut its policies in a GE.

Labour should be doing a lot of things they are abjectly failing to do.

[AndrewJB]

All Cummings was doing was firing a shot across the bows.

Classic “good cop bad cop”. It hasn’t done it in isolation, it is part of the diplomatic package. And, of course, we aren’t assuming it is done yet.

This could have been resolved in 2016 if the Tories hadn’t stitched up Johnson out of spite and put May in power. He is (allegedly) a womanising liar, but he is far more intelligent than May and far more able to play the tough line when needed (look at him evicting so many MPs from the whip, whereas she had them rebelling left right and centre).

I said last week that Steve Baker told us that Boris could be our greatest ever peacetime PM. That seems a bit rich, but there is a huge gap between that and what some think of him - he is likely to surpass their low expectations.

If a source "close to Barnier" made overt threats to the UK, of dealing directly with Scotland and Wales, for example, and of a trade embargo against British goods, you would be spluttering with outrage. You would not accept that it was "just part of a diplomatic package". Hypocrisy.

As for Johnson, he served in May's cabinet. He and many other prominent leavers were an integral part of May's government, which you rightly judge a failure. Johnson was his own failure as Foreign Secretary as we all know, but even though he resigned, he was in post for two years. May's failure is also his. Is he really "far more intelligent" than May? What evidence do you have for that? The artificial airport scheme he had that was in the middle of a bird sanctuary? The bridge across the channel? The one across the Irish Sea? The garden bridge across the Thames that cost the public £40 Million and was never built? Tough line when needed, removing the whip from 21 Tory MPs? Discharging his pistol while it was still in the holster more like! What was he thinking? "I know, I'll goad the opposition into throwing me the lifeline of a general election by accusing them of cowardice!" Johnson is nothing more than a plastic fork at a gun fight.

"Greatest peacetime PM"? Baker forgot to add (or perhaps said under his breath), "for comedy value"

[Greenmile]

So true though, (common sense is) a priceless attribute to possess & all the brexiteers I've encountered have it in spades, sets some of us apart from some of the remain camp.

“Common sense” is just what stupid people claim to have when they have no facts to back up their beliefs. “Common sense” tells us that the sun revolves around a flat Earth. It tells us that a roulette wheel which has come up red 20 times in a row is bound to come up black next time.

Einstein is alleged to have said “Common sense is nothing more than a deposit of prejudices laid down by the mind before you reach eighteen.”

I would agree that many brexiters appear to have “common sense” in spades.

[willsclarets]

On a separate note, Im' surprised we haven't seen a larger amount of Northern Ireland bashing up until now.

Daily Telegraph reporting on Brexit is unreal.

[Lancasterclaret]

Daily Telegraph reporting on Brexit is unreal.

Its not "unreal"

Its basically Brexit propaganda

If it wasn't for the excellent analysis by PM Foster, they'd be no better than the Canary or Guido Fawkes.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Thats not true either though is it?

The backstop only exists till the tech solutions are in place to replace it.

The backstop only exists till the EU agrees that tech solutions are in place to replace it.

Adding those extra words makes all the difference.

[Lancasterclaret]

The backstop only exists till the EU agrees that tech solutions are in place to replace it.

Adding those extra words makes all the difference.

See my previous answer to ITWYW

The fact he hasn't answered it speaks volumes CC

[aggi]

All Cummings was doing was firing a shot across the bows.

Classic “good cop bad cop”. It hasn’t done it in isolation, it is part of the diplomatic package. And, of course, we aren’t assuming it is done yet.

This could have been resolved in 2016 if the Tories hadn’t stitched up Johnson out of spite and put May in power. He is (allegedly) a womanising liar, but he is far more intelligent than May and far more able to play the tough line when needed (look at him evicting so many MPs from the whip, whereas she had them rebelling left right and centre).

I said last week that Steve Baker told us that Boris could be our greatest ever peacetime PM. That seems a bit rich, but there is a huge gap between that and what some think of him - he is likely to surpass their low expectations.

I think you're pretty safe without the allegedly in there.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm happy to say on here that he's a womanising liar.

He hasn't spoken to me about it like, but thats could enough for 100% of normal people*

*not for one poster on here obviously

[Spijed]

katya adler
✔
@BBCkatyaadler
· 31m
I hate to be the thrower of cold water but when it comes to new UK proposals, whatever they might be, if PM moves towards EU position on customs, he’s likely to lose most/all DUP +ERG support. New deal must be agreed not only by PM + EU but also by majority of MPs /1


katya adler
✔
@BBCkatyaadler
EU diplomats also sceptical Boris Johnson would want to be seen to be ‘conceding’ to EU ahead of elex, with Brexit Party breathing down his neck. EU fear is the PM might enter intensive negotiations, get a concession from EU and then pull out.. /2

[CrosspoolClarets]

If a source "close to Barnier" made overt threats to the UK, of dealing directly with Scotland and Wales, for example, and of a trade embargo against British goods, you would be spluttering with outrage. You would not accept that it was "just part of a diplomatic package". Hypocrisy.

As for Johnson, he served in May's cabinet. He and many other prominent leavers were an integral part of May's government, which you rightly judge a failure. Johnson was his own failure as Foreign Secretary as we all know, but even though he resigned, he was in post for two years. May's failure is also his. Is he really "far more intelligent" than May? What evidence do you have for that? The artificial airport scheme he had that was in the middle of a bird sanctuary? The bridge across the channel? The one across the Irish Sea? The garden bridge across the Thames that cost the public £40 Million and was never built? Tough line when needed, removing the whip from 21 Tory MPs? Discharging his pistol while it was still in the holster more like! What was he thinking? "I know, I'll goad the opposition into throwing me the lifeline of a general election by accusing them of cowardice!" Johnson is nothing more than a plastic fork at a gun fight.

"Greatest peacetime PM"? Baker forgot to add (or perhaps said under his breath), "for comedy value"

The trouble with lefties is that they talk sense one minute then lurch into a silly rant that contains no reality - Extinction Rebellion are perfect examples, as is this reply to me.

First of all, Barnier is not part of a sovereign nation, that is a big distinction, but I have already said on here that I don’t agree with the Cummings approach to public threatening.

On Johnson - trying to accuse him of being thick. His French teacher called him a gifted child. He won a scholarship to Eton entirely on merit (despite disruptive family trauma in the preceding years, and yes, he was otherwise privileged). He is clearly a very clever guy but one who doesn’t conform to many of societies norms and which some folk cannot see past. Even if he goes ahead with his plans to leave the EU in an orderly manner, pile money into the north and raise the living wage massively, people still won’t accept it.

He also has that rare face to face ability to make (almost all) others feel special, as Bill Clinton did, and if he manages to keep putting the UKs interests first, rather than making selfish decisions that backfire (a risk I confess), he could do very well.

[AndyClaret]

Breaking news... We are entering the tunnel.

https://twitter.com/DanielBoffey/status ... 3420244992" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[CrosspoolClarets]

EU27 now approve Barnier to commence “tunnel” negotiations.

That means a deal is close.

[Spijed]

EU27 now approve Barnier to commence “tunnel” negotiations.

That means a deal is close.

The big sticking point is the ERG & DUP to get it through, as always.

[Lancasterclaret]

EU27 now approve Barnier to commence “tunnel” negotiations.

That means a deal is close.

It means its not dead and a deal is possible

Lets be honest here, if the UK have compromised on something to do with NI, the sliding scale of DUP support has to be counter balanced by Lab support.

Once the deal is announced (if it is), then it will get scrutinised and (like Mays deal) there will be stuff in there that will be deeply unpopular to the various factors.

Thats the balancing act he's got to somehow get through.

[AndyClaret]

The big sticking point is the ERG & DUP to get it through, as always.

A lot of the ERG are in Government now, there will be 1 or 2 Spartans, at least 18 Labour MP's wrote to Barnier wanting a deal.

[elwaclaret]

Cuts both ways that though

Richmond the only major industrial town in the south, with the biggest armaments works.

They could no more fight without that than they could without the food.

Doomed from the start unless they could win a decisive battle and capture Washington and so convince the world that they could survive.

Big thing was the salt Petre mines around Virginia, many of which continued to be mined throughout the war literally under the fleet of the Federal troops at times.

There was quite a Peace Platform building up to Sharpsburg. Had Antietam not been a pirot victory, for the North Little Mac would have stood for election on the peace ticket, with the avowed intention of ending the conflict by recognising the Confederacy... and he was favourite to win for quite a time. So again , it got a lot closer than a lo might, at first flush, to independence.

[aggi]

katya adler
✔
@BBCkatyaadler
· 31m
I hate to be the thrower of cold water but when it comes to new UK proposals, whatever they might be, if PM moves towards EU position on customs, he’s likely to lose most/all DUP +ERG support. New deal must be agreed not only by PM + EU but also by majority of MPs /1


katya adler
✔
@BBCkatyaadler
EU diplomats also sceptical Boris Johnson would want to be seen to be ‘conceding’ to EU ahead of elex, with Brexit Party breathing down his neck. EU fear is the PM might enter intensive negotiations, get a concession from EU and then pull out.. /2

In some ways the ERG + DUP can be made irrelevant. Even with their support the Tories don't have the numbers to get a deal through, they're going to need some others on board and given how fine the margins are the more likely route could be to get labour on board.

[Lancasterclaret]

Big thing was the salt Petre mines around Virginia, many of which continued to be mined throughout the war literally under the fleet of the Federal troops at times.

There was quite a Peace Platform building up to Sharpsburg. Had Antietam not been a pirot victory, for the North Little Mac would have stood for election on the peace ticket, with the avowed intention of ending the conflict by recognising the Confederacy... and he was favourite to win for quite a time. So again , it got a lot closer than a lo might, at first flush, to independence.

Yeah, but Sharpsburg should have been a complete Union victory.

Only McClellan's complete failure to move decisively when he had the chance saved the Confederacy

To me, only thing that saves the Confederacy is a capture of Washington, and they never even got close to that.

[AlargeClaret]

A lot of the ERG are in Government now, there will be 1 or 2 Spartans, at least 18 Labour MP's wrote to Barnier wanting a deal.

I think Boris is hoping he’ll get enough cross party support to ignore the DUP ( if he absolutely must) . With an election very soon I think much of the ERG may play softball simply as a means of very likely securing their seats in what could be a big Tory victory with surely Farage’s lot melting away?

[Spijed]

I think Boris is hoping he’ll get enough cross party support to ignore the DUP ( if he absolutely must) . With an election very soon I think much of the ERG may play softball simply as a means of very likely securing their seats in what could be a big Tory victory with surely Farage’s lot melting away?

Remember though, many people in places like Burnley or Sunderland said they would vote for the Brexit party because they wanted to leave. They are unlikely to vote for the Conservatives if there is no other alternative to Labour.

[RingoMcCartney]

I want to confirm the 98.6% of polls this year that indicate Britain is now a majority remain country.

The only poll that matters is the one from 2016.








That you lost.

[martin_p]

EU27 now approve Barnier to commence “tunnel” negotiations.

That means a deal is close.

Must be fake news. We’ve been told that the ‘surrender bill’ has made a deal impossible.

[AndyClaret]

Remember though, many people in places like Burnley or Sunderland said they would vote for the Brexit party because they wanted to leave. They are unlikely to vote for the Conservatives if there is no other alternative to Labour.

The Tories will never win Burnley.

[AlargeClaret]

Remember though, many people in places like Burnley or Sunderland said they would vote for the Brexit party because they wanted to leave. They are unlikely to vote for the Conservatives if there is no other alternative to Labour.

That’s a fair point, but the fact is more Tory potential votes than Labour make up the Brexit party . Though I’d say maybe 5% of the “ 14%” poll support wouldn’t vote for another party anyway. Labours problem will simply be Corbyn, though a rout will surely see him and his ilk purged and a credible opposition in place .

[Lancasterclaret]

The Tories will never win Burnley.

I just can't see it either.

But I also can't believe that until very recently, we had a Lib Dem MP as well so if they pick the right candidate, it might happen

[summitclaret]

Remember though, many people in places like Burnley or Sunderland said they would vote for the Brexit party because they wanted to leave. They are unlikely to vote for the Conservatives if there is no other alternative to Labour.

They may still vote BP to spite Labour and especially the LD. The former for its fence sitting and the latter for it's ******** to brexit.