Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 12:26 pm

Khan like Blair arguing for a referendum now. Would anyone on here that agrees with that care to explain a case for that? Assuming BJ presents a deal on 19th Oct he has agreed with the EU.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 12:58 pm

Right_winger wrote:It would appear that Cummings has played a strategic masterstroke here.

BJ and his teams primary objective was/is an election. Brexit is being used as a vehicle to deliver a Tory majority.

No one knows how this will go, but assuming Johnson gets this through I can't see how it's good news for the Tory Party.

Farage etc will still oppose it so there's trouble for him there.
The SNP and Scots in general will strongly oppose it, so he'll most likely lose most if not all his essential Tory seats.
Many Tory voters who still support remain, (e.g. in the south mainly) will lean towards Lib Dem
And crucially if he's agreed a deal to leave the EU, (which will most likely require the support in the Commons of key Labour MPs in Yorkshire and the north generally), why would any traditional Labour voter vote for the Tories, when Labour's manifesto is likely to offer them better opportunities, and they have a historical aversion to voting Conservative anyway?
Johnson / Cummings would have relished a People v Parliament election over brexit, but if he gets this deal over the line, then that strategy is blown out of the water.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:00 pm

John Redwood:

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/10/12 ... n/#respond" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Will the ERG play ball?

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:27 pm

Here's a comprehensive explanation of the deal, and it's difference's to May's deal.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:31 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Here's a comprehensive explanation of the deal, and it's difference's to May's deal.

So no changes to May's deal then, just a change to the backstop (which isn't a part of the Withdrawal agreement or the future relationship)?
(Essentially this was what the Brady amendment was all about months ago.)

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:35 pm

[quote="nil_desperandum"]No one knows how this will go, but assuming Johnson gets this through I can't see how it's good news for the Tory Party.

Farage etc will still oppose it so there's trouble for him there.
The SNP and Scots in general will strongly oppose it, so he'll most likely lose most if not all his essential Tory seats.
Many Tory voters who still support remain, (e.g. in the south mainly) will lean towards Lib Dem
And crucially if he's agreed a deal to leave the EU, (which will most likely require the support in the Commons of key Labour MPs in Yorkshire and the north generally), why would any traditional Labour voter vote for the Tories, when Labour's manifesto is likely to offer them better opportunities, and they have a historical aversion to voting Conservative anyway?
Johnson / Cummings would have relished a People v Parliament election over brexit, but if he gets this deal over the line, then that strategy is blown out of the water.[/quote

The SNP’s big gamble has crashed and burned. Many Labour MP’s are now keen to get this done and return to domestic issues, so they can go for an election. The Liberals are about to be marooned spending the next thirty years arguing from the back benchers to re-join Europe, long after public appetite has subsided. The Brexit party may survive, but I doubt it. Forage will walk away from the Brexit issue, and look for his next crusade... possibly reform of existing EU adopted laws... the Brexit party will become as much of a threat as UKIP now are. Labour will have to confront their own demons or remain split over Brexit... and just avoid it by completely walling of Brexit from further discussion.

So I think the Tory party will come out of this in better shape than anyone could have dreamed three years ago. If Labour can convince me they can fund their spending, they get my vote... but they will not. Labour have a MAJOR problem with their education ideas, as I’m not alone in having been schooled through the old comprehensive system.... anyone who remembers Comprehensive and technical schools will need a hell of a lot of convincing... that is a big chunk of 45-70 year olds they are already having to convince... even Labour voters. Not least myself.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:46 pm

elwaclaret wrote:The SNP’s big gamble has crashed and burned.

How, considering they are likely to win every seat that is currently occupied by the Conservatives and Labour in Scotland?

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:51 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:So no changes to May's deal then, just a change to the backstop (which isn't a part of the Withdrawal agreement or the future relationship)?
(Essentially this was what the Brady amendment was all about months ago.)

N Ireland only, and no trapstop.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:04 pm

Spijed wrote:How, considering they are likely to win every seat that is currently occupied by the Conservatives and Labour in Scotland?

Because they saw Brexit as a lever to gain Scottish Referendum concessions from the opposition parties... once Brexit is done that coalition is over.... and Scotland’s best chance for another referendum in the next 5 years gone. Quite frankly, Idon’t have A problem with Scottish Independence if that is what they want it . However, unlike many I don’t see how Scotland is any better alone than they were in 1701, and I think the same result will occur... but it is up to Scotland. I’ve never understood why they consider their claim to a European spot as a given... but that is for them.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:07 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:So no changes to May's deal then, just a change to the backstop (which isn't a part of the Withdrawal agreement or the future relationship)?
(Essentially this was what the Brady amendment was all about months ago.)

You can't have read his attachment and have posted that. It is clearly different from May's deal. If you have I am worried about you. Are you in denial now that we appear to be getting near to a deal to leave?

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:28 pm

And for the Brexiteers just when you think the DUP & ERG are going to agree to the deal:

Nigel Dodds
@NigelDoddsDUP
Absolutely right
Quote Tweet

Owen Paterson MP
@OwenPaterson
· 17h
Northern Ireland being held in the Customs Union without Great Britain is an obvious breach of the Principle of the Consent in the Belfast Agreement. This would store up problems in Northern Ireland long after Brexit is resolved. https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/1 ... ophically/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:38 pm

Spijed wrote:And for the Brexiteers just when you think the DUP & ERG are going to agree to the deal:

Nigel Dodds
@NigelDoddsDUP
Absolutely right
Quote Tweet

Owen Paterson MP
@OwenPaterson
· 17h
Northern Ireland being held in the Customs Union without Great Britain is an obvious breach of the Principle of the Consent in the Belfast Agreement. This would store up problems in Northern Ireland long after Brexit is resolved. https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/1 ... ophically/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Not unexpected tbh... not unlike the SNP, they have been front and centre, despite there lack of numbers due to the situation.

Hardly surprising that there is opposition to their dominance being undermined by a deal that fits the majority.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:40 pm

Damo wrote:The part of May's deal that brexiteers had an issue was the backstop.
This kept us bound to the EU until a time they decided it was no longer needed. (Basically forever)
Now that has been removed for the majority of the UK, this deal gives us more or less everything we wanted (and let's be honest, nobody gives a toss about NI. A tribal, no man's land that causes nothing but problems for everyone in this small area of northern europe. It has been nothing but a pawn in this whole process)
If this deal makes everyone happy, then there is really no need to keep trying to claim some kind of moral victory here.
If its everything that commentators are saying it is, let's get on with it, get it signed off and let's move on. You of all people seem in need of a break from brexit

Its a deal, which is better than no deal, and I want a deal so it looks promising

Your last line is a bit weird though. This is political history we are living through. That is what "floats my boat"!

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:40 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Not unexpected tbh... not unlike the SNP, they have been front and centre, despite there lack of numbers due to the situation.

Hardly surprising that there is opposition to their dominance being undermined by a deal that fits the majority.

Owen Paterson is a die-hard no-deal MP. If he won't budge I can't see any other member of the ERG do so.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:51 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:No one knows how this will go, but assuming Johnson gets this through I can't see how it's good news for the Tory Party.

Farage etc will still oppose it so there's trouble for him there.
The SNP and Scots in general will strongly oppose it, so he'll most likely lose most if not all his essential Tory seats.
Many Tory voters who still support remain, (e.g. in the south mainly) will lean towards Lib Dem
And crucially if he's agreed a deal to leave the EU, (which will most likely require the support in the Commons of key Labour MPs in Yorkshire and the north generally), why would any traditional Labour voter vote for the Tories, when Labour's manifesto is likely to offer them better opportunities, and they have a historical aversion to voting Conservative anyway?
Johnson / Cummings would have relished a People v Parliament election over brexit, but if he gets this deal over the line, then that strategy is blown out of the water.

Farage will come good whatever the outcome, not many politicians resonate with the working classes like him if any that I can immediately think of, he’ll always have a hardcore cult following, whatever future relationship post brexit we have with the EU I’d wager somewhere Nigel will be plotting away & ensuring the values he endears himself to will be apparent within the political system, If he still remains involved & doesn’t sidetrack himself into any other project.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:53 pm

Spijed wrote:Owen Paterson is a die-hard no-deal MP. If he won't budge I can't see any other member of the ERG do so.

No deal and remain only MP’s will never be happy, their choice at the dispatch is simple... compromise or risk complete failure.

It does not mean they have to be happy about it.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:17 pm

DUP say no deal

Well thats not going to help at all

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:DUP say no deal

Well thats not going to help at all

Just shows how politicised it all is.... how do they decide before the deal is presented?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:38 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Just shows how politicised it all is.... how do they decide before the deal is presented?

Because its obvious that the UK have shifted on customs barriers.

One down the Irish Sea is a big red line for them.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:47 pm

The DUP are not known for being the brightest bulbs in the box, but luckily there is no requirement for their votes if enough Labour MPs vote for it. They have to be very careful or they will push the English into wanting rid of NI, the DUP worst nightmare.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:53 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:The DUP are not known for being the brightest bulbs in the box, but luckily there is no requirement for their votes if enough Labour MPs vote for it. They have to be very careful or they will push the English into wanting rid of NI, the DUP worst nightmare.

DUP say "No", means ERG say "No"

That would mean about 40-50 Lab MPs would have to vote for it, and we haven't seen anything else about what it involves yet.

Remember that Lab MPs have let down the government before.

I can see twenty voting for it, but not much more than that, and that will drop if there isn't some legislation about workers rights in there (which of course, means more ERG drop outs)

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:13 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:DUP say "No", means ERG say "No"

That would mean about 40-50 Lab MPs would have to vote for it, and we haven't seen anything else about what it involves yet.

Remember that Lab MPs have let down the government before.

I can see twenty voting for it, but not much more than that, and that will drop if there isn't some legislation about workers rights in there (which of course, means more ERG drop outs)

Think it all hot air to keep their voices in the mix. The DUP and ERG have to keep the pressure up.... right to the last, so the deal doesn’t ignore them

Sure they will be reassured before the vote.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:31 pm

Spijed wrote:And for the Brexiteers just when you think the DUP & ERG are going to agree to the deal:

Nigel Dodds
@NigelDoddsDUP
Absolutely right
Quote Tweet

Owen Paterson MP
@OwenPaterson
· 17h
Northern Ireland being held in the Customs Union without Great Britain is an obvious breach of the Principle of the Consent in the Belfast Agreement. This would store up problems in Northern Ireland long after Brexit is resolved. https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/1 ... ophically/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You make out like Brexiteers on here can do something about it haha.

Sadly, apart from a little vote that MPs keep ignoring anyway, nobody on here has any influence whatsoever.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:49 pm

Starmer says an amendment on any deal for a referendum. I think they are playing with fire. They may get it depending on how many of their own rebel again and how many independent tories support them. However, imo there will be a massive payback in keave seats at the GE.

hhttp://news.sky.com/story/labours-keir-starmer-if-boris-johnson-gets-a-deal-it-should-be-put-to-a-referendum-11833611" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:00 pm

Think the maths are

- remain win a referendum

- Tories win an election

But both are potentially both the right way and the wrong way to go.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:05 pm

There is no case for a referendum now, especially if BJ brings a new deal agreed by the EU. If labour etc can form a gov after a GE after putting it in a manifesto then fair enough. They have no mandate atm.

If you are right about the tories winning a GE and I think you may be then there won't be a ref. Surely it is undemocratic to have a ref before a GE.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:09 pm

summitclaret wrote:There is no case for a referendum now, especially if BJ brings a new deal agreed by the EU. If labour etc can form a gov after a GE after putting it in a manifesto then fair enough. They have no mandate atm.

If you are right about the tories winning a GE and I think you may be then there won't be a ref. Surely it is undemocratic to have a ref before a GE.

It all depends on what this deal is, and what MPs do about it.

Look, everything that goes through Parliament and is done properly is democratic.

You might not think it is, but it is the sovereign house and as long as it follows the rules then whatever it decides is whatever it decides.

Though I don't agree with a lot of what has been going on from both sides, one of the good things to come out of this is that there are real checks on a minority executives power, and that is unquestionably a good thing.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:14 pm

David Lidington MP

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 1a6766?tlw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There isn't the numbers for a "No Deal" so an extension looks very likely

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:17 pm

I agree it is and should be sovereign. What I object to is mps going against their manifestos, especially when they are from seats that voted leave.

The worst culprits are the tories and former ones that continue to seek a referendum. There is no mandate for it. Most of the ERG however are sticking up for what was in their manifesto and I don't mean no deal.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:22 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:David Lidington MP

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 1a6766?tlw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There isn't the numbers for a "No Deal" so an extension looks very likely

Course there isn't. The tough talking is just to put some doubt in the EU's mind. The Surrender act has made it more difficult than it needed to be, but the author's knew that. There is no way that the tory manifesto will just say no deal.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:13 pm

I have no problems with a technical extension to ratify the deal.

TheFamilyCat · Post by **TheFamilyCat** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:45 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Another one enjoying a day of mourning after hearing the Nissan factory is , indeed, still open despite the country and Sunderland ignoring the EU nationalists behind Project Fear and voting Leave.

Expect TheFamilyCat to spend the rest of the day listening to sombre music !

I was at Alton Towers actually. It was very wet but still had fun.

Could you do me a quick favour though Ringo? Could you tell me who said that the Nissan factory would close if we voted to leave?

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Think the maths are

- remain win a referendum

- Tories win an election

But both are potentially both the right way and the wrong way to go.

I see this as more probable (hence why it is insane):

- remain win a referendum

- hung Parliament after a chaotic election....200+ Remain MPs in Leave areas lose their seats, Farage wins 75 seats and has balance of power, Johnson retains role as PM with Tories largest party in a Leave coalition

- The new Pro-Leave HoC vote for a third referendum

- Leave win the third referendum

- Immediate no deal exit

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:20 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I see this as more probable (hence why it is insane):

- remain win a referendum

- hung Parliament after a chaotic election....200+ Remain MPs in Leave areas lose their seats, Farage wins 75 seats and has balance of power, Johnson retains role as PM with Tories largest party in a Leave coalition

- The new Pro-Leave HoC vote for a third referendum

- Leave win the third referendum

- Immediate no deal exit

Its Saturday night and we have had few. My contribution is that the one thing that will cause riots is this HOC with no mandate votes for another referundum when BJ has a new deal that it could have approved.

I can see it now. Bercow's last decision to allow a vote on a labour amendment first to make a new deal subject to a referendum and Grieve etl get it through.

That would absolutely be a possible in this most undemocratic ever of Parliaments. The payback come a GE would be wonderful.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:23 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I see this as more probable (hence why it is insane):

- remain win a referendum

- hung Parliament after a chaotic election....200+ Remain MPs in Leave areas lose their seats, Farage wins 75 seats and has balance of power, Johnson retains role as PM with Tories largest party in a Leave coalition

- The new Pro-Leave HoC vote for a third referendum

- Leave win the third referendum

- Immediate no deal exit

After the new pro leave vote for a 3rd ref you should have said and lose and ignore it and leave with no deal. Now that would be justice.

TheFamilyCat · Post by **TheFamilyCat** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:32 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I see this as more probable (hence why it is insane):

- remain win a referendum

- hung Parliament after a chaotic election....200+ Remain MPs in Leave areas lose their seats, Farage wins 75 seats and has balance of power, Johnson retains role as PM with Tories largest party in a Leave coalition

- The new Pro-Leave HoC vote for a third referendum

- Leave win the third referendum

- Immediate no deal exit

Bit confused by your logic here. Why would remain win a second ref but leave win the third?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:34 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I see this as more probable (hence why it is insane):

- remain win a referendum

- hung Parliament after a chaotic election....200+ Remain MPs in Leave areas lose their seats, Farage wins 75 seats and has balance of power, Johnson retains role as PM with Tories largest party in a Leave coalition

- The new Pro-Leave HoC vote for a third referendum

- Leave win the third referendum

- Immediate no deal exit

Not even Farage thinks he'll win 75 seats

I mean, if you are not posting that with a twinkle in your eye, then I'd lay off the sherry.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:37 pm

Who knows? Just play the game. Anything you dream up will be more logical than having a con ref on new deal when we have a possible deal.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:40 pm

summitclaret wrote:Who knows? Just play the game. Anything you dream up will be more logical than having a con ref on new deal when we have a possible deal.

I know Farage won't win 75 seats summit.

At the moment, there is nothing more than rumours of a deal, and if Johnson is trying to pull a fast one, then I think you'll be surprised at how quickly he loses support in Parliament.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:45 pm

I know. I don't think he is.

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:47 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I know Farage won't win 75 seats summit.

At the moment, there is nothing more than rumours of a deal, and if Johnson is trying to pull a fast one, then I think you'll be surprised at how quickly he loses support in Parliament.

What fast one do you think he's trying to pull?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:19 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:Bit confused by your logic here. Why would remain win a second ref but leave win the third?

The second referendum, according to many voices in the Labour party - Emily Thornberry being one of them on Euro election night - is going to be a fraud. Having spent years complaining "nobody voted for a "no deal"", they are now planning to specifically exclude "no deal" from the second referendum ballot. This means that the people who are willing to leave with no deal, don't have anything to vote for. The choice will be between Remain or a Labour-EU fudge "deal" which both sides want to be a bad deal that can't win. And if both sides negotiate together to make a bad deal, then a bad deal will easily be made.

That's why Remain might win the second referendum. It'll be like "will you eat a tub of cabbage or a tub of sick" - if you choose cabbage, it doesn't mean you like it.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:26 pm

taio wrote:What fast one do you think he's trying to pull?

"If"

Yup, I definitely did say "if"

If he's trying to do a No Deal but pretending that he's going for a deal

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:"If"

Yup, I definitely did say "if"

If he's trying to do a No Deal but pretending that he's going for a deal

Meaningless

TheFamilyCat · Post by **TheFamilyCat** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:30 pm

dsr wrote:The second referendum, according to many voices in the Labour party - Emily Thornberry being one of them on Euro election night - is going to be a fraud. Having spent years complaining "nobody voted for a "no deal"", they are now planning to specifically exclude "no deal" from the second referendum ballot. This means that the people who are willing to leave with no deal, don't have anything to vote for. The choice will be between Remain or a Labour-EU fudge "deal" which both sides want to be a bad deal that can't win. And if both sides negotiate together to make a bad deal, then a bad deal will easily be made.

That's why Remain might win the second referendum. It'll be like "will you eat a tub of cabbage or a tub of sick" - if you choose cabbage, it doesn't mean you like it.

Fair enough; however, surely the "deal" option in a second referendum as you describe would have to be viable to get on the ballot paper.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:35 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:Fair enough; however, surely the "deal" option in a second referendum as you describe would have to be viable to get on the ballot paper.

I can't see any way in which Corbyn and the EU will negotiate anything sensible when they both know they both want it to be voted down.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:48 pm

taio wrote:Meaningless

Cheers

I happen to think Johnson is trying to get a deal as its the best possible scenario for him, but I wouldn't put it past him to be doing this as an elaborate pre-election stunt.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:52 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:Bit confused by your logic here. Why would remain win a second ref but leave win the third?

I was adapting Lancs’ dystopian future suggestion, which started with a Remain win, but 3 years of chaos and a rigged question under a supplanted caretaker government could easily lead to a Remain win.

The subsequent Leave win comes because people don’t suddenly change and with a pro-Leave HoC the campaign would be very different. No way would Johnson and Farage let it lie.

It’s obviously a bit of fun but the point remains that it would be a nightmare for the HoC to go down the route of a new referendum now when a deal is close.

taio · Post by **taio** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:57 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Cheers

I happen to think Johnson is trying to get a deal as its the best possible scenario for him, but I wouldn't put it past him to be doing this as an elaborate pre-election stunt.

So what you're trying to say it could go either way. Now there's a thing.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:57 pm

Honestly if he bring back a deal and the HOC vote it down they are many mps in leave seats that are ending their careers in shame.