Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:09 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:There isn't anything official that the dual customs approach has been agreed by anyone is there?

I think it is fairly clear that the four groups I mentioned have approved the broad approach, though now need to agree the detail. Otherwise the “tunnel” would not have been opened.

willsclarets · Post by **willsclarets** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:13 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:I think it would be unwise to put any issues down to "game playing" at this stage.

End of the day, the deal has to be agreed between the EU and UK within two days.

Even if it agreed, you have to convince everyone who has doubts in about another two days or it doesn't get past Parliament.

And again, if Johnson really thought a deal was close and doable, he'd asked for an extension to give it the time required.

If he did that, then Parliament (as they have always done) will pull back from whatever they have got planned.

And if Johnson and his ministers keep saying that we are leaving on Oct 31st, then the suspicion remains that he's not serious about a deal.

Johnson could end this by asking for a "technical extension" to finish off the deal, and only the zealots would have an issue with that.

Even if the motion for a deal is passed in parliament, the opposition to legislating for a deal in such a short timeframe means an extension has to be inevitable. The closer we get to the 31st without an extension, the more worried I get.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:17 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I think it is fairly clear that the four groups I mentioned have approved the broad approach, though now need to agree the detail. Otherwise the “tunnel” would not have been opened.

Its fair to say that about the UK govt and the EU

I'm not seeing anything that suggests it is true for the DUP or the ERG.

I agree the detail will be important, but any custom border in the Irish Sea is a huge climb down for the DUP or ERG (a welcome one, but still a climb down)

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:19 am

willsclarets wrote:Even if the motion for a deal is passed in parliament, the opposition to legislating for a deal in such a short timeframe means an extension has to be inevitable. The closer we get to the 31st without an extension, the more worried I get.

Aye, the worry is that the only "game playing" going on is by the Uk Government.

We are essentially relying on Parliament to do the right thing by making sure the extension is asked for, and its safe to say that I wouldn't rely on them to do what is best under pressure.

willsclarets · Post by **willsclarets** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:27 am

Good article on the pickle the DUP finds itself in https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... se-dilemma" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:23 pm

Surely a “ technical extension” while the deal is thrashed out is in everyone’s interest and Boris gets off with his “ do or die” promise . Though if an extension of this nature then led to some remainer led coup it could all get very messy.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:56 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Aye, the worry is that the only "game playing" going on is by the Uk Government.

We are essentially relying on Parliament to do the right thing by making sure the extension is asked for, and its safe to say that I wouldn't rely on them to do what is best under pressure.

It might be your point of view that it's only the UK government that are playing games but

the previous extensions haven't been worthwhile
and nothing was gained from recalling MPs to parliament the other week.

Me thinks everyone is playing political games, you just don't want to see it.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:04 pm

AlargeClaret wrote:Surely a “ technical extension” while the deal is thrashed out is in everyone’s interest and Boris gets off with his “ do or die” promise . Though if an extension of this nature then led to some remainer led coup it could all get very messy.

He doesn’t. He was asked the question about ‘what if we’re only a few days away from getting a deal on 31st’ and was steadfast in his ‘we leave on 31st come what may’ line.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:13 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:It might be your point of view that it's only the UK government that are playing games but

the previous extensions haven't been worthwhile
and nothing was gained from recalling MPs to parliament the other week.

Me thinks everyone is playing political games, you just don't want to see it.

Only the Uk Government has people in it who actually think a "No Deal" is a good idea.

You have to factor that into everything.

Nobody else wants a "No Deal" if a deal is possible. They won't play games to get a "No Deal"

Thats pretty basic tbf

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Only the Uk Government has people in it who actually think a "No Deal" is a good idea.

You have to factor that into everything.

Nobody else wants a "No Deal" if a deal is possible. They won't play games to get a "No Deal"

Thats pretty basic tbf

Your point is valid Lancaster but so is the post it refers too (quicken the tempo, I think)
Parliament have been given the opportunity to sort a deal, be it May or themselves that have refused to play ball.... the opportunity was wasted, playing party politics with it. By both sides.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:30 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Only the Uk Government has people in it who actually think a "No Deal" is a good idea.

You have to factor that into everything.

Nobody else wants a "No Deal" if a deal is possible. They won't play games to get a "No Deal"

Thats pretty basic tbf

“Nobody else wants a “No Deal” if a deal is possible” come on fella you are more intelligent than that, it’s blindingly obvious that’s true for a very good reason, the uk government are well aware that a no deal is nothing to fear, (well some are Baker JRM etc) whereas the deal probably been presented & hopefully encouraged to complete probably represents very little difference to a no deal factoring in all the variables, I’d prefer less alignment & strike up trade deals elsewhere free from restriction.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:35 pm

Is there any reason why we must be members of the EU to sign this alleged deal? I don't see any reason why we couldn't leave on 31st October and sign it as a non-EU country in November. They could even agree a free trade transition period in the meantime.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:36 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Your point is valid Lancaster but so is the post it refers too (quicken the tempo, I think)
Parliament have been given the opportunity to sort a deal, be it May or themselves that have refused to play ball.... the opportunity was wasted, playing party politics with it. By both sides.

At this particular moment with time for a deal on such a tight timescale, the only people who are game playing (potentially) are the backers of a "No Deal" Brexit in the UK government.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:38 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:“Nobody else wants a “No Deal” if a deal is possible” come on fella you are more intelligent than that, it’s blindingly obvious that’s true for a very good reason, the uk government are well aware that a no deal is nothing to fear, (well some are Baker JRM etc) whereas the deal probably been presented & hopefully encouraged to complete probably represents very little difference to a no deal factoring in all the variables, I’d prefer less alignment & strike up trade deals elsewhere free from restriction.

Well, we've all been waiting for an awful long time for people to tell why a "No Deal" is so ace Jakub.

Thats one of the reasons that this thread is as long as it is, and its one of the main reasons we are where we are where we are.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Well, we've all been waiting for an awful long time for people to tell why a "No Deal" is so ace Jakub.

Thats one of the reasons that this thread is as long as it is, and its one of the main reasons we are where we are where we are.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/what-is-hard-brexit/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Read on

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:43 pm

Expected doesn’t mean it will before you critically counter.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:49 pm

Two paragraphs?

Oh well, what have we got to be worried about?

(head in hands gif)

willsclarets · Post by **willsclarets** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:51 pm

dsr wrote:Is there any reason why we must be members of the EU to sign this alleged deal? I don't see any reason why we couldn't leave on 31st October and sign it as a non-EU country in November. They could even agree a free trade transition period in the meantime.

Because in that instance, the second we leave the EU essentially we've done so on a no deal. The impact of that within days, hours even, is huge.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:53 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Two paragraphs?

Oh well, what have we got to be worried about?

(head in hands gif)

I could post plenty more I'm quite busy now, I figured you wouldn't want to spend all afternoon reading article after article it's very tedious, so posted a short bullet pointed article generally covering the basics

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:02 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:I could post plenty more I'm quite busy now, I figured you wouldn't want to spend all afternoon reading article after article it's very tedious, so posted a short bullet pointed article generally covering the basics

No offence meant here, but you haven't done anything remotely like that for three years.

The articles praising "No Deal" are all very similar in that they are high in stuff like "we just have to believe in Britain" and very low in stuff like "the realistic outcome of going WTO is very suboptimal".

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:14 pm

Disturbing bits in the New Immigration Bill regarding Irish citizens

to quote

"Clarify the immigration status of Irish citizens once the free movement framework has been repealed. This means that Irish Citizens will GENERALLY not require leave to enter or remain in the UK"

Why with the CTA is that even "generally"?

willsclarets · Post by **willsclarets** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:15 pm

The rhetoric around no deal supporters, particularly those coming from the Brexit Party, is almost reminiscent of the first time around. It's never about ramifications, a "clean break" is about demonising the EU.

The irony of course is that "No Deal" actually means "Lots More Deals"

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:30 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/what-is-hard-brexit/
Read on

For something purporting to be an academic research unit, that's very weak. Most children could write in more detail on the subject.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:36 pm

https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/statu ... khagi4kNQ8" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Some happy things to mull over.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:51 pm

AndrewJB wrote:https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/statu ... khagi4kNQ8 Some happy things to mull over.

Wow!

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:11 pm

IF Johnson delivers on a deal that all agree to but does not have the time to get it through so has to request an extension in line with the Benn Bill. Is there anything legally stopping all parties from completing the remaining technical aspects, getting it ratified and say leaving in a month?

If not this seems the best course. Prevent No Deal as legislated by Parliament but crack on and get the deal sorted asap - everyones a winner

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:08 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:As a brexiteer, I just can't help feel that if our resident remoaners were near a TV or radio last week and overheard the news that the New Nissan Juke was rolling off the production line up in Sunderland. They rushed to turn it off or put their fingers on their ears screaming "Go away, go away. No no no! It cant be happening! I cant hear it! I wont hear it! No no no! This wasn't supposed to happen! Where's Eddie Izzard when you need him!?"

Maybe Ringo is a closet remainer. In his rush to turn it off it seems he entirely missed the Head of Nissan Europe saying:

"The only message I can [give] is that if a no-deal will be associated with the application of 10% duties under the WTO rules, that will create an enormous problem for the overall European activities of Nissan Europe.

"If we will have to sustain 10% export duties on the vehicles that we export from UK to EU, knowing that those vehicles represent 70% of total production, the overall business model won't be sustainable.

"It's not a question of Sunderland, it's a question of the overall economic sustainability of our business [in Europe]."

Ringo also seems to have missed the news that it was originally going to be two models that were going to be built in Sunderland but the decision was made not to build the X-Trail there, in part due to Brexit uncertainty. If we shout Juke loud enough though it may gloss over the other issues.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:11 pm

And some thinly veiled threats of violence over Northern Ireland being aligned with the EU rather than the rest of the UK
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 89092.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:19 pm

aggi wrote:And some thinly veiled threats of violence over Northern Ireland being aligned with the EU rather than the rest of the UK
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 89092.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Threats or predictions?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:27 pm

aggi wrote:And some thinly veiled threats of violence over Northern Ireland being aligned with the EU rather than the rest of the UK
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 89092.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The whole point of the "special negotiations" re. NI was because of the threat of violence. It's what the Good Friday agreement was about. It's hardly news.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:31 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Threats or predictions?

Probably both. I was a little surprised to see how upfront people were about it in a newspaper article.

TheFamilyCat · Post by **TheFamilyCat** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:41 pm

aggi wrote:Maybe Ringo is a closet remainer. In his rush to turn it off it seems he entirely missed the Head of Nissan Europe saying:

"The only message I can [give] is that if a no-deal will be associated with the application of 10% duties under the WTO rules, that will create an enormous problem for the overall European activities of Nissan Europe.

"If we will have to sustain 10% export duties on the vehicles that we export from UK to EU, knowing that those vehicles represent 70% of total production, the overall business model won't be sustainable.

"It's not a question of Sunderland, it's a question of the overall economic sustainability of our business [in Europe]."

Ringo also seems to have missed the news that it was originally going to be two models that were going to be built in Sunderland but the decision was made not to build the X-Trail there, in part due to Brexit uncertainty. If we shout Juke loud enough though it may gloss over the other issues.

Go away with your Project Fear lies aggi.

ps - you may have missed it but ringo has had the quote from the head of Nissan Europe pointed out to him. Unsurprisingly he ignored it.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:40 pm

martin_p wrote:Wow!

I looked for this around other media before posting, but didn’t find it reported anywhere mainstream. Jolyon Maugham is respectable though, and the post he retweeted has the paperwork included so people can see for themselves.

Looking at it, I can’t imagine a U.K. government taking such a line - which would make them international pariahs, and (you would hope) would utterly repel the U.K. public - however when I look at social media, I sometimes wonder whether there might be an appetite within a segment of the population for such action.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:28 pm

No deal before summit:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 55716.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:36 pm

Spijed wrote:No deal before summit:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 55716.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like Boris has a letter to write.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:31 pm

martin_p wrote:Looks like Boris has a letter to write.

He probably has a template ready to go. Just has to replace; "restaurant owner" with "EU", "Sorry for wrecking your place the other night" with "sorry for the delay", and "would you consider this cheque for £1200 as recompense for the damage I caused?" with "would you be so kind as to allow the UK another three months of membership?"

I'm sure there's a minion who can spare him the effort of deleting and typing.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:29 pm

AndrewJB wrote:For something purporting to be an academic research unit, that's very weak. Most children could write in more detail on the subject.

In fairness I was in a rush & busy some of us work for a living

it was pretty much 1 of the first findings goggle threw up when I typed in hard brexit & covered the basics as explained to LC, I’m sure the mods wouldn’t have appreciated me spamming the MB with article after article not that I had the time anyway & I don’t think LC would have had the desire to read, it’s all available to read if you are open minded to the potential benefits it could bring.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:40 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:In fairness I was in a rush & busy some of us work for a living it was pretty much 1 of the first findings goggle threw up when I typed in hard brexit & covered the basics as explained to LC, I’m sure the mods wouldn’t have appreciated me spamming the MB with article after article not that I had the time anyway & I don’t think LC would have had the desire to read, it’s all available to read if you are open minded to the potential benefits it could bring.

Whist you're in the mood for looking stuff up check this video out and see if this is your kind of Brexit plan or not

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PzL8aL6jtI

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:41 am

martin_p wrote:Looks like Boris has a letter to write.

As long as it comes with a general election I will be happy. Chance to get Labour out of our town and the Brexit party in Parliament.

Since getting defeated in the local elections Labour are trying to get the towns councils merged with Blackburn and Rossendale again in a vote this week. Desperate times for a failing party.

willsclarets · Post by **willsclarets** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:45 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:As long as it comes with a general election I will be happy. Chance to get Labour out of our town and the Brexit party in Parliament.

Since getting defeated in the local elections Labour are trying to get the towns councils merged with Blackburn and Rossendale again in a vote this week. Desperate times for a failing party.

You seriously want the Brexit party in parliament? Why?

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:00 am

willsclarets wrote:You seriously want the Brexit party in parliament? Why?

There's more chance of a clean break from the EU with numbers being in favour of the brexiteers.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:00 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:As long as it comes with a general election I will be happy. Chance to get Labour out of our town and the Brexit party in Parliament.

Since getting defeated in the local elections Labour are trying to get the towns councils merged with Blackburn and Rossendale again in a vote this week. Desperate times for a failing party.

That makes sense in having a dedicated brexit party in parliament especially as the process of brexit is taking place.

willsclarets · Post by **willsclarets** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:06 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:There's more chance of a clean break from the EU with numbers being in favour of the brexiteers.

Why did I know you were going to include the words "clean break". They're meaningless.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:10 am

I get the impression some remainers would like the Liberal Democrat’s overseeing our exit away from the EU

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:16 am

Looks like a deal is nearly there but not enough time for the EU/UK to sign it off this weekend. EU will probably delay the official sign off for a week so the Benn act will need to be amended with a new deadline date.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:18 am

willsclarets wrote:Why did I know you were going to include the words "clean break". They're meaningless.

Most political words are.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:44 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:Most political words are.

But "clean break" in this case is the most meaningless phrase ever, and take ignoring reality to a whole new level.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:49 am

Quickenthetempo wrote: Since getting defeated in the local elections Labour are trying to get the towns councils merged with Blackburn and Rossendale again in a vote this week. Desperate times for a failing party.

So far as I understand it, this proposal has - broadly - got CROSSPARTY support, with some on each side dissenting, but general agreement.
It's certainly endorsed by the Conservative Council leader in Pendle.
No time to debate it here, but anything that frees us from LCC, removes one layer of administration, makes local government more efficient and saves a lot of money for council tax payers should be considered (IMO)

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:56 am

So, there are people on here arguing that Boris deal is the same as May's deal. Whilst David gauke says it's the same as no deal, both can't be true.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:59 am

AndyClaret wrote:So, there are people on here arguing that Boris deal is the same as May's deal. Whilst David gauke says it's the same as no deal, both can't be true.

Isn't David Gauke worried that its effectively a "No Deal" for Eng, Wales and Scotland but not for NI?

He's worried about that bit isn't he?

(no one has seen the full deal that the UK has in mind yet)