Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[AndyClaret]

Isn't David Gauke worried that its effectively a "No Deal" for Eng, Wales and Scotland but not for NI?

He's worried about that bit isn't he?

(no one has seen the full deal that the UK has in mind yet)

It's neither no deal, nor is it the same as May's deal.

[Lancasterclaret]

It's neither no deal, nor is it the same as May's deal.

So you've seen it?

Where is it?

[AndyClaret]

So you've seen it?

Where is it?

It seems to be like that roaul fella has been tweeting.

[Lancasterclaret]

It seems to be like that roaul fella has been tweeting.

Thats just the customs stuff though isn't it?

Its a major sticking point for the ERG/DUP but the rest of the WA is just as important, especially to Tory rebels and Labour MPs

[aggi]

There's more chance of a clean break from the EU with numbers being in favour of the brexiteers.

A clean break? Do you not think the UK will struggle if it loses almost 50% of its exports?

[Quickenthetempo]

A clean break? Do you not think the UK will struggle if it loses almost 50% of its exports?

No, because it will lose 80% of it's imports if that's how you think.

This country will have millions of people with big wads of cash that need feeding, clothing etc.

The weak pound will offset some of the tarrifs for exports as well.

Some will lose out and some will gain, but that's business.

We can still trade with other countries, just have to pay a bit more.

But generally the countries with the most money win at these things.

[Lancasterclaret]

No, because it will lose 80% of it's imports if that's how you think.

This country will have millions of people with big wads of cash that need feeding, clothing etc.

The weak pound will offset some of the tarrifs for exports as well.

Some will lose out and some will gain, but that's business.

We can still trade with other countries, just have to pay a bit more.

But generally the countries with the most money win at these things.

Who needs experts eh?

[Quickenthetempo]

Who needs experts eh?

So which part don't you agree with Lancaster?

[TheFamilyCat]

No, because it will lose 80% of it's imports if that's how you think.

This country will have millions of people with big wads of cash that need feeding, clothing etc.

The weak pound will offset some of the tarrifs for exports as well.

Some will lose out and some will gain, but that's business.

We can still trade with other countries, just have to pay a bit more.

But generally the countries with the most money win at these things.

When do I get my big wad of cash?

[Quickenthetempo]

When do I get my big wad of cash?

You don't need any, your owners feed you and you crap in your neighbours garden.

Just avoid the dogs and your life is sorted.

[Spijed]

"Michel Barnier has set Boris Johnson a midnight deadline to concede to EU demands and agree to a customs border in the Irish Sea or be left with nothing to take to the Commons.

According to sources, the EU’s chief negotiator told ministers that, as it stood, there was no prospect of a deal being signed off by leaders at a summit on Thursday, before a special sitting of the UK parliament on Saturday.

Legal text had yet to be tabled by the British negotiators, Barnier told ministers in Luxembourg. He advised the EU capitals he would announce on Wednesday whether negotiations on an agreement would have to continue into next week.

Barnier warned that the starting point for a deal had to be the Northern Ireland-only backstop, keeping it in the EU’s single market for goods and erecting a customs border in the Irish Sea, a proposal previously rejected by Theresa May.

After the meeting, Belgium’s deputy prime minister, Didier Reynders, told reporters: “If we have an agreement tonight it will be possible to go to the [European] council and then again to the British parliament. But it’s not easy, we have some red lines, they are well known by all the partners. I’m hoping it will be possible today to make some progress.”

[aggi]

No, because it will lose 80% of it's imports if that's how you think.

This country will have millions of people with big wads of cash that need feeding, clothing etc.

The weak pound will offset some of the tarrifs for exports as well.

Some will lose out and some will gain, but that's business.

We can still trade with other countries, just have to pay a bit more.

But generally the countries with the most money win at these things.

I'm not sure where your 80% is coming from.

Currently about 50% of our exports go to the EU. Obviously that would have to stop if we had a clean break (it wouldn't be much of a clean break if we were still trading with them) so we'd lose those 50% of exports.

It may be that we could re-purpose our economy. Those currently exporting professional services may be able to find new markets in Africa or become farmers and fill the demand there, maybe our sheep farmers could replace the huge market they've lost with exports to Australia and New Zealand but I suspect that would take quite some time so, in the short term, we'd be losing almost 50% of our exports.

[Lancasterclaret]

So which part don't you agree with Lancaster?

Thats its as simple as you are trying to make out.

Look, I get it.

Brexit is only possible to justify on an economic level if you just read the absolute basics, which is what we've all been spoon fed en masse for the past three-four years.

Those of us who thought "Hang on a sec, it can't be that simple can it?" and have the inclination because of interest in it have delved further into it and hey presto!

Its not that simple.

[Quickenthetempo]

I'm not sure where your 80% is coming from.

Currently about 50% of our exports go to the EU. Obviously that would have to stop if we had a clean break (it wouldn't be much of a clean break if we were still trading with them) so we'd lose those 50% of exports.

It may be that we could re-purpose our economy. Those currently exporting professional services may be able to find new markets in Africa or become farmers and fill the demand there, maybe our sheep farmers could replace the huge market they've lost with exports to Australia and New Zealand but I suspect that would take quite some time so, in the short term, we'd be losing almost 50% of our exports.

Sorry I shouldn't of used percentages without working it out. There was a 64 billion pound trade deficit in 2016 between the two sides.

[Quickenthetempo]

Thats its as simple as you are trying to make out.

Look, I get it.

Brexit is only possible to justify on an economic level if you just read the absolute basics, which is what we've all been spoon fed en masse for the past three-four years.

Those of us who thought "Hang on a sec, it can't be that simple can it?" and have the inclination because of interest in it have delved further into it and hey presto!

Its not that simple.

I do simplify things, you're right.

Just like football, it's a simple game that's over.complicated by people so they can make a living

[Lancasterclaret]

I do simplify things, you're right.

Just like football, it's a simple game that's over.complicated by people so they can make a living

Right

Just so we are on the same page here

You don't think international trade is complex

Its being complicated by experts, and if left to just happen, it would just happen and everything would be fine.

Is that a fair summary?

[Quickenthetempo]

Right

Just so we are on the same page here

You don't think international trade is complex

Its being complicated by experts, and if left to just happen, it would just happen and everything would be fine.

Is that a fair summary?

It is complicated, but that's because people make it that way.

[Lancasterclaret]

It is complicated, but that's because people make it that way.

No, thats fine.

I think though using the reality of what international trade is far more useful than what an idealistic vision of trade is.

Certainly when we are talking about the 6th largest economy in the world.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

I do simplify things, you're right.

Just like football, it's a simple game that's over.complicated by people so they can make a living

Out of interest have you ever exported anything of substance?

I have and in all fairness things are in place for a reason.

The Yanks don't like Chinese metal, Israel don't want goods from countries around them and vice versa, same with India and Pakistan to a lesser degree.
Getting stuff into Africa also carries a fair amount of risk.

Companies also have to pass and enforce stringent security measures because of potential terrorist threats etc.

It isn't necessarily people making it complicated to justify their jobs, there are real political issues at hand and that's just the things I know about, nevermind what someone like Lancaster will know.

[dsr]

I'm not sure where your 80% is coming from.

Currently about 50% of our exports go to the EU. Obviously that would have to stop if we had a clean break (it wouldn't be much of a clean break if we were still trading with them) so we'd lose those 50% of exports.

It may be that we could re-purpose our economy. Those currently exporting professional services may be able to find new markets in Africa or become farmers and fill the demand there, maybe our sheep farmers could replace the huge market they've lost with exports to Australia and New Zealand but I suspect that would take quite some time so, in the short term, we'd be losing almost 50% of our exports.

That's a strange definition of a "clean break". I would take "clean break" to mean that the UK and the EU are fully independent and not subject to each other's laws (except to the extent that they mutually agree). Your version is devoid of all common sense, and I'm sure it's not what quickenthetempo meant.

[Spijed]

From Guardian live updates:

"Conservative party leaflets obtained by the BBC suggest the party is preparing for a delay to Brexit, the BBC is reporting. The text of one leaflet says “Without a strong majority government, we can’t deliver Brexit” - even though Boris Johnson is theoretically committed to delivering Brexit by 31 October, without a majority and ahead of a general election."

[RMutt]

People don’t seem to mind that the new trade deals are no better than the existing EU deals. Or that a lot of the other economic reasons for leaving are fast becoming disproved. Or that the Good Friday Agreement could be compromised. Or the fact that the ‘ sunny uplands’ or whatever they were described as, are a distant memory. They just ‘ want it done’. Proving I think, that the immigration issue coupled with the general distrust of all things foreign, in particular those European schemers is still and always was the main reason people voted brexit. I must say, ably abetted by the usual media suspects.

[Quickenthetempo]

"Michel Barnier has set Boris Johnson a midnight deadline to concede to EU demands and agree to a customs border in the Irish Sea or be left with nothing to take to the Commons.

According to sources, the EU’s chief negotiator told ministers that, as it stood, there was no prospect of a deal being signed off by leaders at a summit on Thursday, before a special sitting of the UK parliament on Saturday.

Legal text had yet to be tabled by the British negotiators, Barnier told ministers in Luxembourg. He advised the EU capitals he would announce on Wednesday whether negotiations on an agreement would have to continue into next week.

Barnier warned that the starting point for a deal had to be the Northern Ireland-only backstop, keeping it in the EU’s single market for goods and erecting a customs border in the Irish Sea, a proposal previously rejected by Theresa May.

After the meeting, Belgium’s deputy prime minister, Didier Reynders, told reporters: “If we have an agreement tonight it will be possible to go to the [European] council and then again to the British parliament. But it’s not easy, we have some red lines, they are well known by all the partners. I’m hoping it will be possible today to make some progress.”

You would think they would of learned by now, appearing to threaten the UK will not do them any favours this side of the channel.

Best not to leak stories like that.

[AndrewJB]

No, because it will lose 80% of it's imports if that's how you think.

This country will have millions of people with big wads of cash that need feeding, clothing etc.

The weak pound will offset some of the tarrifs for exports as well.

Some will lose out and some will gain, but that's business.

We can still trade with other countries, just have to pay a bit more.

But generally the countries with the most money win at these things.

It’s completely irresponsible. Making a sudden change to our economy like that is like turning a fast moving vehicle in a tight turn. It’s why a majority of MPs oppose this way forward. You look at the people Johnson put into his cabinet - Williamson, Raab, Gove, Patel, Javid - basically all the idiots and inexperienced people - and compare that with the sensible people he’s fired. There’s more statesmanship, human decency, experience and wisdom in Clarke or Grieve than many of those put together. And they’re supported by nothing more than a braying mob, radicalised against foreigners by a foreigner owned press. There’s no other way to describe people who insist on a course of action even after all the positive promises about it have evaporated on contact with reality, who blame the other side for their own failings, and call people “traitor” for not being as deluded as them.

[Quickenthetempo]

People don’t seem to mind that the new trade deals are no better than the existing EU deals. Or that a lot of the other economic reasons for leaving are fast becoming disproved. Or that the Good Friday Agreement could be compromised. Or the fact that the ‘ sunny uplands’ or whatever they were described as, are a distant memory. They just ‘ want it done’. Proving I think, that the immigration issue coupled with the general distrust of all things foreign, in particular those European schemers is still and always was the main reason people voted brexit. I must say, ably abetted by the usual media suspects.

Just wanting it done is frustration on people's behalf.

Immigration is a massive problem in this country, But if the Government built a new hospital,school,road,drain, and housing estate for every 25k new people coming here, then most people would be happy with it.

[CrosspoolClarets]

That's a strange definition of a "clean break". I would take "clean break" to mean that the UK and the EU are fully independent and not subject to each other's laws (except to the extent that they mutually agree). Your version is devoid of all common sense, and I'm sure it's not what quickenthetempo meant.

Agree.

No way would 50% of our exports cease overnight, not least because many of those are destined for EU supply chains and the EU product would also have to cease being sold at their end.

We would also start from a position of regulatory alignment. Deregulating is illegal unless the HoC passes a law in that regard, so in the absence of such laws the EU can have full confidence our exports are compliant.

The economic risk of “no deal” isn’t on November 1st 2019, it is manufacturers worrying that on November 1st 2020 we will have deregulated and they cannot risk our exports remaining compliant. So, their transition away from the U.K. would be gradual - we would have to reassure them by saying we would keep standards high in key sectors.

[AndrewJB]

Agree.

No way would 50% of our exports cease overnight, not least because many of those are destined for EU supply chains and the EU product would also have to cease being sold at their end.

We would also start from a position of regulatory alignment. Deregulating is illegal unless the HoC passes a law in that regard, so in the absence of such laws the EU can have full confidence our exports are compliant.

The economic risk of “no deal” isn’t on November 1st 2019, it is manufacturers worrying that on November 1st 2020 we will have deregulated and they cannot risk our exports remaining compliant. So, their transition away from the U.K. would be gradual - we would have to reassure them by saying we would keep standards high in key sectors.

Tariffs. If there is no deal and we go to WTO rules then tariffs are applied to goods moving to and from us and EU countries. Plus we are no longer in trade deals agreed between the EU and other countries. Plus we’re out of the areas of cooperation like policing, and research. It won’t just be a slow parting of ways, but a sudden and abrupt change.

[RMutt]

Just wanting it done is frustration on people's behalf.

Immigration is a massive problem in this country, But if the Government built a new hospital,school,road,drain, and housing estate for every 25k new people coming here, then most people would be happy with it.

There was a young women on the telly the other night expressing her opinion that she was fed up with brexit and just wanted it over with. I thought to myself, ‘well she could be frustrated that Parliament hasn’t really been functioning properly for three years because of the distraction or important issues are being sidelined’, but somehow she didn’t really seem the type. I thought, ‘what are you fed up of?’ I wondered whether they had started putting brexit shows on instead of Strictly or Britain’s got Talent. But actually I got the feeling she was just repeating another sound bite.

[Jakubclaret]

Thats its as simple as you are trying to make out.

Look, I get it.

Brexit is only possible to justify on an economic level if you just read the absolute basics, which is what we've all been spoon fed en masse for the past three-four years.

Those of us who thought "Hang on a sec, it can't be that simple can it?" and have the inclination because of interest in it have delved further into it and hey presto!

Its not that simple.

It really is that simple, I think sometimes well a lot the situation becomes cloudy for you in terms of overthinking & seeing problems that aren't there, if you pause & think logically in a common sense manner obstacles which present themselves can be overcome by adapting & utilising our resources, the trading marketplace will still thrive even more so without suffocating regulatory alignment, it'd be a position of our own choosing the way we conduct business & would encourage innovative enterprise.

[Lancasterclaret]

It really is that simple, I think sometimes well a lot the situation becomes cloudy for you in terms of overthinking & seeing problems that aren't there, if you pause & think logically in a common sense manner obstacles which present themselves can be overcome by adapting & utilising our resources, the trading marketplace will still thrive even more so without suffocating regulatory alignment, it'd be a position of our own choosing the way we conduct business & would encourage innovative enterprise.

it really isn't.

[Lowbankclaret]

From Guardian live updates:

"Conservative party leaflets obtained by the BBC suggest the party is preparing for a delay to Brexit, the BBC is reporting. The text of one leaflet says “Without a strong majority government, we can’t deliver Brexit” - even though Boris Johnson is theoretically committed to delivering Brexit by 31 October, without a majority and ahead of a general election."

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago the Tory ME-P’s had advertised for Personal Assistants on a 6 month contract.

That’s why I don’t see any point debating for the time being as I firmly believe it’s extension and then a G.E.

[Lowbankclaret]

And what’s more, even if they get a deal, Parliament is going to vote it down.

[Lowbankclaret]

No wonder Labour don’t want voter ID.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politic ... 84296.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[TVC15]

I do simplify things, you're right.

Just like football, it's a simple game that's over.complicated by people so they can make a living

Sometimes people simplify things they don’t understand.
I like to think the Hadron Collider is just a giant dust bin that scientists use for their recycling.

[AndrewJB]

It really is that simple, I think sometimes well a lot the situation becomes cloudy for you in terms of overthinking & seeing problems that aren't there, if you pause & think logically in a common sense manner obstacles which present themselves can be overcome by adapting & utilising our resources, the trading marketplace will still thrive even more so without suffocating regulatory alignment, it'd be a position of our own choosing the way we conduct business & would encourage innovative enterprise.

If I presented you with the challenge of a fifteen foot wall, over time you’ll come up with a means of scaling it. But if I give you the challenge and tell you that if you don’t adapt right away and scale it immediately you’ve lost, you probably won’t bother. That is a no deal Brexit. And as for deregulating our way to prosperity, which regulations are you keen for us to shed?

[martin_p]

Sometimes people simplify things they don’t understand.
I like to think the Hadron Collider is just a giant dust bin that scientists use for their recycling.

Also, rocket science isn’t rocket science.

[Devils_Advocate]

No wonder Labour don’t want voter ID.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politic ... 84296.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Or maybe its because in person voter fraud is virtually non existent yet bringing in ID is going to result in thousands not being able to vote who are likely to be from the poorer end of society and not Tory voters.

Dress it up how you like but Voter ID is just a policy to try and make it harder for genuine voters of non Tory party's to be able to vote.

For you Brexit Party and Tory Brexiteers who shout about democracy and the will of the people supporting this would seem somewhat of a contradictory position

[AndrewJB]

No wonder Labour don’t want voter ID.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politic ... 84296.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

How will voter ID stop postal vote fraud? How many cases of voter fraud convictions did we get from the 2017 GE? One! Right now - unless the government make voter ID available to everyone, something like 11 million people don’t have passports or driving licenses. That’s more like voter suppression.

[Jakubclaret]

If I presented you with the challenge of a fifteen foot wall, over time you’ll come up with a means of scaling it. But if I give you the challenge and tell you that if you don’t adapt right away and scale it immediately you’ve lost, you probably won’t bother. That is a no deal Brexit. And as for deregulating our way to prosperity, which regulations are you keen for us to shed?

As I've said before, businesses will always find a way through a wall whether it's over or under or around it or even through it by bolstering the brickwork, I'm glad you've used that example, the point you fail to see is that various methods can be used to pass the wall it isn't impenetrable, using 1 method is a narrow way of thinking a trait remainers are ingrained with, regarding deregulation I'll answer that later I'm pressed for time with working a late shift.

[AndyClaret]

How will voter ID stop postal vote fraud? How many cases of voter fraud convictions did we get from the 2017 GE? One! Right now - unless the government make voter ID available to everyone, something like 11 million people don’t have passports or driving licenses. That’s more like voter suppression.

They are offering free ID cards for anyone that wants one.

[RMutt]

They are offering free ID cards for anyone that wants one.

Even if you believe this is actually about voting fraud, you have to admit it's a big hammer to crack a small nut.

[Quickenthetempo]

Or maybe its because in person voter fraud is virtually non existent yet bringing in ID is going to result in thousands not being able to vote who are likely to be from the poorer end of society and not Tory voters.

Dress it up how you like but Voter ID is just a policy to try and make it harder for genuine voters of non Tory party's to be able to vote.

For you Brexit Party and Tory Brexiteers who shout about democracy and the will of the people supporting this would seem somewhat of a contradictory position

How can anyone live in this country without I.D?

You need it to open a bank account, you need it to apply for benefits, drive a car, get a house and most jobs.

Oh, and to join the Labour party.

[Lowbankclaret]

Or maybe its because in person voter fraud is virtually non existent yet bringing in ID is going to result in thousands not being able to vote who are likely to be from the poorer end of society and not Tory voters.

Dress it up how you like but Voter ID is just a policy to try and make it harder for genuine voters of non Tory party's to be able to vote.

For you Brexit Party and Tory Brexiteers who shout about democracy and the will of the people supporting this would seem somewhat of a contradictory position

Complete bull,

You can have an ID card for £15.

https://www.validateuk.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lowbankclaret]

Or maybe its because in person voter fraud is virtually non existent yet bringing in ID is going to result in thousands not being able to vote who are likely to be from the poorer end of society and not Tory voters.

Dress it up how you like but Voter ID is just a policy to try and make it harder for genuine voters of non Tory party's to be able to vote.

For you Brexit Party and Tory Brexiteers who shout about democracy and the will of the people supporting this would seem somewhat of a contradictory position

Or just maybe you fully understand how much the Labour Party cheat at elections and want to defend that position.

I want fair elections, if that meant a voucher from the state for £15 being needed for people who claim they cannot afford it, then I would wholeheartedly support that so everyone can have a photo I.D.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

How will voter ID stop postal vote fraud? How many cases of voter fraud convictions did we get from the 2017 GE? One! Right now - unless the government make voter ID available to everyone, something like 11 million people don’t have passports or driving licenses. That’s more like voter suppression.

One that was discovered, how many more that weren't?

Also, with the amount of things you need to have ID for nowadays, it's staggering that millions don't have anything.

[Lowbankclaret]

How will voter ID stop postal vote fraud? How many cases of voter fraud convictions did we get from the 2017 GE? One! Right now - unless the government make voter ID available to everyone, something like 11 million people don’t have passports or driving licenses. That’s more like voter suppression.

ID cards are available for £15, if a voucher scheme is needed for the low paid, that should be supported.

[Lowbankclaret]

Even if you believe this is actually about voting fraud, you have to admit it's a big hammer to crack a small nut.

Depends how much cheating you believe is going on.

I believe it’s more widespread than we know. But the main aim has to be fair and honest elections.

[Lowbankclaret]

They are offering free ID cards for anyone that wants one.

Is there a link to provide evidence as that’s a good step forward.

[Spijed]

Looks like we aren't leaving on the 31st:

"Rees-Mogg tells MPs he is unable to confirm yet whether Saturday sitting will go ahead
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has delivered a short business statement. We thought he might announce details of the sitting planned for Saturday, but instead he just announced that after the Queen’s speech debate tomorrow there will be a short debate under section 3(2) of the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation Act).

Tony Lloyd, the shadow Northern Ireland secretary, asked if Rees-Mogg could clarify what would happen on Saturday.

Rees-Mogg said a Saturday sitting would be a very rare occurrence. He said he could not announce plans for one yet because that would be dependent on the outcome of talks that are still taking place".

[Devils_Advocate]

Its estimated around 3.5 million citizens do not have access to Photo ID
11m do not have passports
1.7m do not have a bank account

Allowing the use of non-photographic (and easily-forgeable) ID such as utility bills would mean the change could actually do more harm than good – making it harder to vote for honest voters, while not tackling any of the alleged problems.

Please tell me the size of the problem we are trying to tackle here and why the Tory's are going to this effort if its not just voter suppression. As I said in my first post in person voter fraud is virtually non existence and it will put up far more barriers to genuine voters rather than reducing voter fraud

As for your final point Lowbank £15 is a lot of money to some people and not only that but people whose life are chaotic and immensely tough at the best of times are going to struggle with the effort needed not only to budget for the money but to organise themselves to apply.

You might scoff at these people and their lives but the point is the right to vote should be equal for everyone and should be made as simple and easy as possible whilst doing all we can to minimise voter fraud.

Why dont the Tory's go and spend some real time and effort tackling the foreign country's that subvert our election process - though to be fair the answer to this is obvious