Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
From a more personal perspective: if Johnson gets this deal through so be it. My position is that I don't want five more years of the Tories. Hardcore remainers talk about no deal being better than the deal with the EU we have at present, but that's all idealistic: we could be inside the EU with a hard-right government and be far worse off than at present (look at Hungary or Poland for example), but we could be outside the EU with a level-headed government and better off than at present. Some of these people (and I am generalising/stereotyping/speculating here) I suspect thought the country was pretty much 'alright' before the referendum result.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Katy Adler Sky News
"This is a massive difference to the backstop in Theresa May's deal which was written up as being temporary. The new text envisages a potential for NI to have different customs and regulatory mechanism from rest of UK permanently. This of course is huge for the DUP"
Potential for NI to have a different customs and regulatory mechanism from the rest of the UK permanently?
I don't see how the DUP/ERG can vote for that, and I don't see how any Labour/rebel Tories can vote for the political declaration part of it because of the damage to the economy and workers rights.
Christ on a bike, that is far worse than Mays deal and Johnston is being lauded as a genius?
One thing this does show btw, that the "No Deal isn't a catastrophe" isn't one believed by the PM. (which is a good thing, but he and his predecessor needed to be saying from 2016 onwards)
I just hope the EU give us an extension to get an election/2nd ref so we can sort this out or we are f**ked.
"This is a massive difference to the backstop in Theresa May's deal which was written up as being temporary. The new text envisages a potential for NI to have different customs and regulatory mechanism from rest of UK permanently. This of course is huge for the DUP"
Potential for NI to have a different customs and regulatory mechanism from the rest of the UK permanently?
I don't see how the DUP/ERG can vote for that, and I don't see how any Labour/rebel Tories can vote for the political declaration part of it because of the damage to the economy and workers rights.
Christ on a bike, that is far worse than Mays deal and Johnston is being lauded as a genius?
One thing this does show btw, that the "No Deal isn't a catastrophe" isn't one believed by the PM. (which is a good thing, but he and his predecessor needed to be saying from 2016 onwards)
I just hope the EU give us an extension to get an election/2nd ref so we can sort this out or we are f**ked.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
There is potential for anything in NI to be permanent, that is the nature of consent enshrined in the GFA.
All that reporter seems to be saying Lancs is that it is important to the DUP - not that they will eventually reject it.
It is an excellent deal which protects the GFA and gives NI access to our free trade deals. Tinkering with the degree of influence Sinn Fein has should hopefully get it over the line - then it’s up to labour MPs if they want this or no deal. A confirmatory referendum would rip the country apart - that has to be avoided at all costs.
All that reporter seems to be saying Lancs is that it is important to the DUP - not that they will eventually reject it.
It is an excellent deal which protects the GFA and gives NI access to our free trade deals. Tinkering with the degree of influence Sinn Fein has should hopefully get it over the line - then it’s up to labour MPs if they want this or no deal. A confirmatory referendum would rip the country apart - that has to be avoided at all costs.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
There isn’t one.martin_p wrote:Why aren’t you supporting the British car industry?
There’s the Indian car industry, previously known as Jaguar Land Rover. I did test drive one of theirs but it was too petrol guzzling. Overseas firms manufacturing in the U.K. need to up their game, we cannot buy inferior products out of blind loyalty, it is the road to ruin. Free trade incentivises high performance.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Taking no deal off the table forced him to make an effort. His deal might be utter crap, but we can’t say he didn’t surprise us with how fast he could actually move when he had to.Lancasterclaret wrote:Katy Adler Sky News
"This is a massive difference to the backstop in Theresa May's deal which was written up as being temporary. The new text envisages a potential for NI to have different customs and regulatory mechanism from rest of UK permanently. This of course is huge for the DUP"
Potential for NI to have a different customs and regulatory mechanism from the rest of the UK permanently?
I don't see how the DUP/ERG can vote for that, and I don't see how any Labour/rebel Tories can vote for the political declaration part of it because of the damage to the economy and workers rights.
Christ on a bike, that is far worse than Mays deal and Johnston is being lauded as a genius?
One thing this does show btw, that the "No Deal isn't a catastrophe" isn't one believed by the PM. (which is a good thing, but he and his predecessor needed to be saying from 2016 onwards)
I just hope the EU give us an extension to get an election/2nd ref so we can sort this out or we are f**ked.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I view the British obsession with SUVs as a level of insanity akin to voting Remain. They block the view, are dangerous to pedestrians, are unwieldy to drive and often have surprisingly low boot capacity. Soccer mums buy them because they wrongly think they are safer. I have one life, I like to live it without fear and to be bold and different in some of my choices.TheFamilyCat wrote:Didn't you fancy a Nissan Juke?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I was being a bit sarcastic regarding the Juke following ringo's latest fascination.CrosspoolClarets wrote:I view the British obsession with SUVs as a level of insanity akin to voting Remain. They block the view, are dangerous to pedestrians, are unwieldy to drive and often have surprisingly low boot capacity. Soccer mums buy them because they wrongly think they are safer. I have one life, I like to live it without fear and to be bold and different in some of my choices.
Genuine question though, relating to your previous post: do you not consider cars manufactured in Britain to be part of the British car industry?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Well yes, which is why the GFA still remains one of the most remarkable diplomatic achievements you will ever see.CrosspoolClarets wrote:There is potential for anything in NI to be permanent, that is the nature of consent enshrined in the GFA.
All that reporter seems to be saying Lancs is that it is important to the DUP - not that they will eventually reject it.
It is an excellent deal which protects the GFA and gives NI access to our free trade deals. Tinkering with the degree of influence Sinn Fein has should hopefully get it over the line - then it’s up to labour MPs if they want this or no deal. A confirmatory referendum would rip the country apart - that has to be avoided at all costs.
But the DUP were promised a veto last week. This is not what they had in mind, and its still a customs border down the Irish Sea.
But to be honest I can live with all that, its the political declaration that I'm struggling with.
"Singapore in Europe" is nothing like acceptable to people like me.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
And more potential problems as it looks like you can't trust Johnson to stick to his word.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184742511652331520" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Depressingly, this does sound like how Johnson operates, promise everything to everybody and then somehow try to avoid being blamed when it all blows up in his face.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184742511652331520" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Depressingly, this does sound like how Johnson operates, promise everything to everybody and then somehow try to avoid being blamed when it all blows up in his face.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I hope you're right about prices coming down next year, I quite fancy a Tesla myself. I doubt they will though.CrosspoolClarets wrote:Why buy a US car today? My wife asked me the same question.
I think the currency will rise, and the 10% tariff will soon go. But I suspect that will only filter through to the price in the store by springtime, and we need another car now.
I’m also expecting demand to shortly outstrip supply and a big waiting list build up (I’ve bought a Tesla for delivery December, I did the maths, Brexiteer maths admittedly, and worked out it would pay for itself in 10 years with fuel savings).
But the wider point is that protectionism only serves to make high quality external products like Tesla cars more unaffordable, and while I can see the point of looking after our own industries, the EU’s tariffs only benefit our own manufacturers in a few areas, and hurt our consumers in all of them.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
A reminder of the economic effects of this
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
But why on earth would we be discussing opening a bank account in the US? You keep talking about common sense, use some!Jakubclaret wrote:I realised it was US link nobody mentioned it was for UK or maybe they have, I've only just recently logged on to reply to willsclaret & quickly glanced at certain posters arguing/discussing the requirements needed to open a bank account, it was years ago when I registered with barclays & I do it online now & use pinsentry if changing devices. I'll leave you all to it, the banking methods I use are simple & straightforward without problems, always a first time for everything I guess.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
...I have just joined the 'Independence for Northern Ireland' movement...
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Remember when voters were told repeatedly the deal we got would be better than membership and there would be no downsides...
And now the potential deal is worse than membership and the government has spent hundreds of millions on ads to remind us of all of the downsides of leaving.
And now the potential deal is worse than membership and the government has spent hundreds of millions on ads to remind us of all of the downsides of leaving.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
BTW, what is wrong with a confirmatory referendum Crosspool?
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
You don't think that's a bit of an oversimplification? Looks like whoever worked out those figures just saw that 8% of GDP was generated by exports to the EU, and assumed that those exports would instantly cease and not be replaced in "No Deal". Which would be a scenario that fits your obsessively pro-EU agenda, but surely even you can't take it seriously? Or perhaps you can?Lancasterclaret wrote:A reminder of the economic effects of this
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Oversimplification from the man who's gonna don a yellow jacket at the border and wave through the lorry's with key supplies in themdsr wrote:You don't think that's a bit of an oversimplification? Looks like whoever worked out those figures just saw that 8% of GDP was generated by exports to the EU, and assumed that those exports would instantly cease and not be replaced in "No Deal". Which would be a scenario that fits your obsessively pro-EU agenda, but surely even you can't take it seriously? Or perhaps you can?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
This is the beauty of brexit. The standards of what's expected of our PM or any politician has been parked. Johnson knows full well that whatever he does, people don't need to believe in him if they "believe in brexit". It long ago turned into a binary issue that's reflective of politics across the board. Ignore the details, are you with us or against us?Lancasterclaret wrote:And more potential problems as it looks like you can't trust Johnson to stick to his word.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184742511652331520" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Depressingly, this does sound like how Johnson operates, promise everything to everybody and then somehow try to avoid being blamed when it all blows up in his face.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Of course it is!dsr wrote:You don't think that's a bit of an oversimplification? Looks like whoever worked out those figures just saw that 8% of GDP was generated by exports to the EU, and assumed that those exports would instantly cease and not be replaced in "No Deal". Which would be a scenario that fits your obsessively pro-EU agenda, but surely even you can't take it seriously? Or perhaps you can?
its a handwritten graph!
But its a simple tool for showing reality.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Arlene Foster says no.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
One of the problems people like you have is that you don't realise not everyone has your blind trust in figures (even when written on the back of an envelope by someone who doesn't understand graphs). A lot of people use this much maligned "common sense" when figures like this come out. They see someone saying that the effect on GDP will be cataclysmic; they think "that's rubbish" and disregard it. Just as deals which are too good to be true, usually are; promises which are too bad to be true, usually are as well.Lancasterclaret wrote:Of course it is!
its a handwritten graph!
But its a simple tool for showing reality.
These figures are too bad to be possible and posting them makes you look like the boy who cried wolf, or Matilda in the poem; they both suffered the same way. They forecast doom so often, and were proved wrong, that no-one believed them. Of course, in the end they were proved right. I don't think you will be.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Don’t like her, but she seems to be the only person involved in the process sticking to her principles.AndrewJB wrote:Arlene Foster says no.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Whether you agree with the figures or not it’s a perfectly acceptable graph!dsr wrote:One of the problems people like you have is that you don't realise not everyone has your blind trust in figures (even when written on the back of an envelope by someone who doesn't understand graphs).
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Right, lets go through this one at a timedsr wrote:One of the problems people like you have is that you don't realise not everyone has your blind trust in figures (even when written on the back of an envelope by someone who doesn't understand graphs). A lot of people use this much maligned "common sense" when figures like this come out. They see someone saying that the effect on GDP will be cataclysmic; they think "that's rubbish" and disregard it. Just as deals which are too good to be true, usually are; promises which are too bad to be true, usually are as well.
These figures are too bad to be possible and posting them makes you look like the boy who cried wolf, or Matilda in the poem; they both suffered the same way. They forecast doom so often, and were proved wrong, that no-one believed them. Of course, in the end they were proved right. I don't think you will be.
Its from the twitter account of a trade expert. Someone who knows a hell of a lot more about this than you and me. Its a simple tool to show a very complex thing as simply as possible. Thats what it does.One of the problems people like you have is that you don't realise not everyone has your blind trust in figures (even when written on the back of an envelope by someone who doesn't understand graphs).
Again, you have to have alternative figures to counter balance it. You never have. You have exhortations, buzz words, claims that it will all end up alright. But nothing that counter balances the trade experts. Nothing.A lot of people use this much maligned "common sense" when figures like this come out. They see someone saying that the effect on GDP will be cataclysmic; they think "that's rubbish" and disregard it. Just as deals which are too good to be true, usually are; promises which are too bad to be true, usually are as well.
the difference between me and you is that I don't claim that I know about this stuff. I trust people who know about this stuff.These figures are too bad to be possible and posting them makes you look like the boy who cried wolf, or Matilda in the poem; they both suffered the same way. They forecast doom so often, and were proved wrong, that no-one believed them. Of course, in the end they were proved right. I don't think you will be.
You believe it what you believe so much that you can ignore evidence. Thats way beyond anything I can do.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
If only this logic had been applied earlier in the process.dsr wrote:One of the problems people like you have is that you don't realise not everyone has your blind trust in figures (even when written on the back of an envelope by someone who doesn't understand graphs). A lot of people use this much maligned "common sense" when figures like this come out. They see someone saying that the effect on GDP will be cataclysmic; they think "that's rubbish" and disregard it. Just as deals which are too good to be true, usually are; promises which are too bad to be true, usually are as well.
These figures are too bad to be possible and posting them makes you look like the boy who cried wolf, or Matilda in the poem; they both suffered the same way. They forecast doom so often, and were proved wrong, that no-one believed them. Of course, in the end they were proved right. I don't think you will be.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
I think it's a non-debate that GDP in the short to medium term will be negatively affected by Brexit, the exact extent to which is admittedly an educated guess by those "in the know". What you would be right to say is that long term, we don't know if it will be a net benefit or economic suicide. The available evidence tells us that being in the EU has been enormously beneficial to our economy historically, so common sense would tell me that you would need pretty solid ground to justify leaving. From a risk/reward point of view given everything we've learned since the referendum was declared, from an economic pov this is nothing better than a punt on our future prosperity.dsr wrote:One of the problems people like you have is that you don't realise not everyone has your blind trust in figures (even when written on the back of an envelope by someone who doesn't understand graphs). A lot of people use this much maligned "common sense" when figures like this come out. They see someone saying that the effect on GDP will be cataclysmic; they think "that's rubbish" and disregard it. Just as deals which are too good to be true, usually are; promises which are too bad to be true, usually are as well.
These figures are too bad to be possible and posting them makes you look like the boy who cried wolf, or Matilda in the poem; they both suffered the same way. They forecast doom so often, and were proved wrong, that no-one believed them. Of course, in the end they were proved right. I don't think you will be.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Why does it say "GDP per capita"? Presumably it has made some sort of adjustment for an expected population change - what change is it expecting? Why do we have less sovereignty in the EEA than in the EU? Where are the numbers on the sovereignty scale? It's a rubbish graph, and it would be rubbish if it was printed neatly instead of scribbled.martin_p wrote:Whether you agree with the figures or not it’s a perfectly acceptable graph!
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
You just knew it would be you that wouldn't get it.
Does it show, in a very simple way, the real effects of the various deals that we could have?
Yes
Thats all it has to do.
Does it show, in a very simple way, the real effects of the various deals that we could have?
Yes
Thats all it has to do.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Deal done
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 03296?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 03296?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
The problem is someone’s opinion isn’t evidence. Trade expert or not.Lancasterclaret wrote: You believe it what you believe so much that you can ignore evidence. Thats way beyond anything I can do.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Most of this stuff is not evidence, it's supposition. I didn't believe that we would go into recession and lose 800,000 jobs immediately after a Brexit withdrawal vote, as the Treasury told us we would. You did believe them. Well done for believing the experts, but you can stop believing them now because they were wrong.Lancasterclaret wrote:Again, you have to have alternative figures to counter balance it. You never have. You have exhortations, buzz words, claims that it will all end up alright. But nothing that counter balances the trade experts. Nothing.
the difference between me and you is that I don't claim that I know about this stuff. I trust people who know about this stuff.
You believe it what you believe so much that you can ignore evidence. Thats way beyond anything I can do.
It was the same years and years ago with the Mad Cow Disease / CJD problem. The experts told us that beefburgers were infecting people and had been for many years and the number of people who were going to die was ranging from "lots" to "millions". You probably believed them. Did you? Have you stopped believing them yet?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Would it not be more prudent to reserve judgement on the final deal before making assumptions that "the potential deal is worse than membership" plenty of people who voted leave wanted a complete cutout from the EU & weren't really thinking about deals prior to voting, the common feeling amongst some leavers were let's just leave & dare I say excited about a future without any EU bureaucratic involvement, out meant out such was the dislike at the time & that feeling as probably intensified the longer it's continued, despite the warped misconceptions some remainers have developed that leavers have changed & a peoples vote is necessary in order to overturn a democratical decision. The government spent a fortune on leaflets encouraging us to remain & that was a waste of money, some people won't be conned & can see whats happening.CombatClaret wrote:Remember when voters were told repeatedly the deal we got would be better than membership and there would be no downsides...
And now the potential deal is worse than membership and the government has spent hundreds of millions on ads to remind us of all of the downsides of leaving.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
A DEAL HAS BEEN AGREED
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
There is a deal
Well, well, well
Lets see the details so we know where we are.
Well, well, well
Lets see the details so we know where we are.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
You believe that this is good for the UK, in face of all the evidence.dsr wrote:Most of this stuff is not evidence, it's supposition. I didn't believe that we would go into recession and lose 800,000 jobs immediately after a Brexit withdrawal vote, as the Treasury told us we would. You did believe them. Well done for believing the experts, but you can stop believing them now because they were wrong.
It was the same years and years ago with the Mad Cow Disease / CJD problem. The experts told us that beefburgers were infecting people and had been for many years and the number of people who were going to die was ranging from "lots" to "millions". You probably believed them. Did you? Have you stopped believing them yet?
Thats all the points you just made, being pointed right back at you.
You don't even see it either, thats the really scary thing.
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
No it doesn't. It shows a (pessimistic) prediction of what the effects might be, not what they are.Lancasterclaret wrote:Does it show, in a very simple way, the real effects of the various deals that we could have?
Yes
Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Deal agreed
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Confirmed....(BBC) RTE and Boris Johnson both saying a deal has been done.
EDIT...DUP "no it hasn't"
EDIT...DUP "no it hasn't"
Last edited by ElectroClaret on Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
It is when the alternative opinion is yours or DSRs mate, with the greatest respect.Right_winger wrote:The problem is someone’s opinion isn’t evidence. Trade expert or not.
There isn't any relevant experience for you two to draw on that counter balances the trade expert.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Which means it does what its supposed to do.dsr wrote:No it doesn't. It shows a (pessimistic) prediction of what the effects might be, not what they are.
You think its wrong, using your wealth of experience in accountancy
I think it might be right, based on reading a lot of trade experts opinions on it, and a working career in UK-EU road and sea freight.
But the simple graph shows what it is meant to do.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
DUP not on board.
What on earth is Johnson playing at?
What on earth is Johnson playing at?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
"Experts" are incentivised to promote opinions & sway decisions, it's been known & a well established suspicion that some experts who do quietly confide to family & friends often a real opinion is conceded contrary to what is pumped out in the public domain.Lancasterclaret wrote:It is when the alternative opinion is yours or DSRs mate, with the greatest respect.
There isn't any relevant experience for you two to draw on that counter balances the trade expert.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Lancasterclaret wrote:Well, they have compromised on something that was one of their red lines.
They have done this because a no deal is a terrible result for the UK and that if they don't do this now, there won't be a Brexit.
They would have a much better deal for the UK if they didn't have the self imposed red lines in the first place.
And the political decleration appears to be a right wing rules and regulation wet dream.
This deal is shite, a lot shitter than Mays deal.
It's troubling I have to be honest
I don’t know the new deal in detail and this is an honest question.
Why is this deal so much worse than May’s??
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Summed it up on this thread LBCLowbankclaret wrote:I don’t know the new deal in detail and this is an honest question.
Why is this deal so much worse than May’s??
- no customs union for whole UK
- regulatory diversion way beyond what makes sense (to me anyway)
- bonfire of workers rights etc
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Because it is actually a proper brexit.Lowbankclaret wrote:I don’t know the new deal in detail and this is an honest question.
Why is this deal so much worse than May’s??
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Yes in a fashion, but I guess added context to my last post is that an overseas owner does not necessarily develop the product in a way that helps the UK workers. I would love us to be British owned, with intellectual property held securely in the UK, a bit like Tesla have with their world leading Autopilot functionality. Overseas owners can sell that IP to whomever they choose at potentially a huge loss to the British economy. They can also ship manufacturing away too.TheFamilyCat wrote:I was being a bit sarcastic regarding the Juke following ringo's latest fascination.
Genuine question though, relating to your previous post: do you not consider cars manufactured in Britain to be part of the British car industry?
Yes, I know, this goes against my earlier promotion of free trade. There is a balance.
So, to answer, I consider our car industry to be partly British and partly not.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
It appears to be down to the ERG now.
Do they retain their full support for the DUP, or do they vote to reverse their own bill that effectively ruled out the Irish Sea border?
Does this mark the end of the Conservative and Unionist Party?
Do they retain their full support for the DUP, or do they vote to reverse their own bill that effectively ruled out the Irish Sea border?
Does this mark the end of the Conservative and Unionist Party?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Genuinely interested in this, Lancs. Which rights do you think we'll abolish?Lancasterclaret wrote:- bonfire of workers rights etc
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
Johnson has got a deal , that is what the vast majority of the public wanted.
It will now be back to Parliament v The People and the last chance for the large majority of Remain MPs to stop the UK leaving the EU.
It will now be back to Parliament v The People and the last chance for the large majority of Remain MPs to stop the UK leaving the EU.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth
That’s an easy one.Lancasterclaret wrote:DUP not on board.
What on earth is Johnson playing at?
He is trying to take the entire moral high ground by saying to the public - “I, rather than Hilary Benn, have taken no deal off the table”. He knows that if the Commons boot this out the public will back him to the hilt - either in a 2nd referendum or an election.
Let’s remember this brave new world of freedom is also one that the Libs, Greens and Labour can apply to run. If they choose to raise standards, or to nationalise industries, or to bail out others - they can. It isn’t just about a perceived race to the bottom. The key is - the UK voter will decide.