Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Lancasterclaret]

Because it is actually a proper brexit.

Its certainly that!

Its better than a "No Deal" (anything is!) but its relying on the FTA bunch being correct (which, as discussed on this thread, tends to fly in the face of the reality of FTAs between countries) about the benefits of such agreements.

[AndyClaret]

There were reports yesterday that the dup were split 7 3 in favour of the deal.

[Spijed]

That’s an easy one.

He is trying to take the entire moral high ground by saying to the public - “I, rather than Hilary Benn, have taken no deal off the table”. He knows that if the Commons boot this out the public will back him to the hilt - either in a 2nd referendum or an election.

Let’s remember this brave new world of freedom is also one that the Libs, Greens and Labour can apply to run. If they choose to raise standards, or to nationalise industries, or to bail out others - they can. It isn’t just about a perceived race to the bottom. The key is - the UK voter will decide.

How does he fend off Nigel Farage who's now said this new deal is a disaster on SKy this morning?

[Lancasterclaret]

There were reports yesterday that the dup were split 7 3 in favour of the deal.

if that was true, then they would be backing it no?

[Lancasterclaret]

How does he fend off Nigel Farage who's now said this new deal is a disaster on SKy this morning?

Honestly?

Easily

[CrosspoolClarets]

I hope you're right about prices coming down next year, I quite fancy a Tesla myself. I doubt they will though.

They went up 2 months ago which many feel is down to currency falls. Tesla are known to adjust their prices regularly.

Get it through a business you effectively get 20% off from your Corp tax bill with negligible benefits in kind due to zero emissions. Buy the base model you also avoid the governments “luxury car tax” for >£40k cars. Charging costs are 1/7 of petrol (I will save £3k per year though recently I have been flying more than driving for work). Servicing is near zero.

[AndrewJB]

I think it’s primacy of U.K. law, meaning not adhering to EU standards - whether they be environmental or working rights. They won’t get many Labour MPs voting for this, when those who were teetering wanted worker and environmental protections built in.

[Lancasterclaret]

Listening to Michel Barnier now

He's very good

Look, its a shite deal but its the best we can hope for I suspect under the current government.

But if you are in the DUP, you are going to realise that you've been sold down the river to guarantee a deal.

[AndyClaret]

if that was true, then they would be backing it no?

Wilson Dodds and Donaldson against though.

[Lancasterclaret]

Wilson Dodds and Donaldson against though.

So?

Thats a much bigger majority than 52-48!

[Lowbankclaret]

Summed it up on this thread LBC

- no customs union for whole UK
- regulatory diversion way beyond what makes sense (to me anyway)
- bonfire of workers rights etc

I don’t want to be in a customs union, that has lots of negatives that come with.

I don’t believe there is any country in the customs union that can control its borders on immigration. I think they all have to accept EU laws as well.

[Lowbankclaret]

Anyway no matter what deal he has done.

As I have said for a while Parliament will vote it down on Sat.

We will then have an extension.

Hopefully then GE.

[ecc]

Analysis: PM 'could go down in flames'

Norman Smith

BBC Assistant political editor

"One thing I’ve been told is that Boris Johnson will not hold a vote (on his deal) unless he’s confident of winning it and I do not see how he can be confident of winning it unless he has the DUP on board so I think whether Saturday goes ahead is very much up in the air.

If he goes for the Saturday sitting [in the Commons], he could go down in flames. He could lose his deal and for the Brexit deal to go down for a fourth time could potentially be a game over moment.

More than that, he could even find himself facing Parliament backing another referendum.

If Saturday goes ahead, it is going to be a massive moment in the history of this country."

[Lancasterclaret]

Hang on

Sounds better on a level playing field than originally mooted

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status ... 3802557440" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thats a big plus to this for me.

[nil_desperandum]

Looking at what has been emerging I would imagine that a confirmatory referendum will now be added to this deal in an amendment, and that this would be the option most likely to be able to get it over the line.
But who knows?

[Lancasterclaret]

Looking at what has been emerging I would imagine that a confirmatory referendum will now be added to this deal in an amendment, and that this would be the option most likely to be able to get it over the line.
But who knows?

100% would get it through Parliament

But crikey, how would you word it to be even remotely fair?

[Rick_Muller]

corbyn.JPG (45.18 KiB) Viewed 920 times

[CrosspoolClarets]

The thing that will get this through Parliament is if the EU say no extension under any circumstances - deal or no deal. They may now say that.

[Colburn_Claret]

I think it’s primacy of U.K. law, meaning not adhering to EU standards - whether they be environmental or working rights. They won’t get many Labour MPs voting for this, when those who were teetering wanted worker and environmental protections built in.

The hypocrisy of this. IF labour are going to win the next GE, what the hell does it matter what working rights we agree to, they can always implement their own. The same goes for the environment.
As for adhering to EU standards, and this isn't about wether they are good or bad, just the fact that they don't impose their standards on any other country in the world that they, the EU trades with. When will you understand that leaving means they can't impose their standards on us either.

Over the last 100 years we've created the NHS, the Welfare State, we did it all without any threat from the EU. Our standards of working rights, and environment may never be perfect, but it stacks up against anything most European countries have to offer. They have remainers brainwashed into this idea that we aren't capable of running ourselves, we aren't capable of creating a society with higher standards than any country in the world, including the EU. That we aren't capable of competing and succeeding on the world stage as an industrialised nation in our own right. Its all ********. We have it in our own hands to make of this country what we want, but its down to us, not the EU, not America, just us. It's insulting, and very sad, that you have so little faith in the people of this country, wether that's your family, your friends, your neighbours, your work colleagues. Trust me, if we pull together and stop acting like frightened little school girls, there is nothing to stop us, but ourselves.

[Lancasterclaret]

The thing that will get this through Parliament is if the EU say no extension under any circumstances - deal or no deal. They may now say that.

But they can't.

If they say that, they are intervening in UK internal affairs.

Something you are 100% against under any circumstances.

This deal seems a pretty fair one and solves the problems.

If Johnson had aimed for this at the start, then this would sail through.

Because he didn't, and tried to do something dodgy, it might not.

Thats still all on him.

But to be fair to him, he's managed to ditch the backstop to a certain extent, which he deserves credit for.

But again, his full on crap at the start have potentially given him problems he shouldn't have.

[Mala591]

Withdrawal Agreement opened and the 'potentially indefinate' backstop removed.

I think Johnson should be congratulated for achieving 'the impossible'.

Well done Boris.

[martin_p]

Its certainly that!

Its better than a "No Deal" (anything is!)

But only in the same way that having one broken leg is better than having two broken legs.

[Lancasterclaret]

But only in the same way that having one broken leg is better than having two broken legs.

Oh god yes, but we are where we are.

I'm torn here to be honest.

I'm going to wait for some more detailed analysis but it looks like Johnson has done a lot better than anyone thought he would.

[Darthlaw]

Will we be getting rid of the following workers rights, from the EU?

EU statutory paid holiday entitlement is 20 days. UK's is 28
EU minimum wage law - doesnt exist. UK has the National Minimum Wage Act 1998
Maternity leave –EU: 14 weeks, UK's is 52 weeks.

Some would have you believe without the EU, we'll be reopening the workhouse.

[Lancasterclaret]

Will we be getting rid of the following workers rights, from the EU?

EU statutory paid holiday entitlement is 20 days. UK's is 28
EU minimum wage law - doesnt exist. UK has the National Minimum Wage Act 1998
Maternity leave –EU: 14 weeks, UK's is 52 weeks.

Some would have you believe without the EU, we'll be reopening the workhouse.

To be fair to me, wrong choice of words

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status ... 73/photo/1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This looks a lot better than was originally mooted last night, which is a big positive.

And this live tweet sums up how Johnson is trying to square the ERG position and woo Labour MPs

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1184781838264557568" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AndyClaret]

If labour want to change the future relationship, then they can put it in their manifesto if they have the balls to call a confidence vote.

[AndyClaret]

Looking at what has been emerging I would imagine that a confirmatory referendum will now be added to this deal in an amendment, and that this would be the option most likely to be able to get it over the line.
But who knows?

It would need to be adopted by the government as a referendum is considered a finance bill.

[Murger]

The self serving remainers will vote this down. It's always been about keeping us in the EU, whatever deal came back.

[Lancasterclaret]

This sums up the DUP problem

"The issue for the DUP is that the Good Friday Agreement provides for a cross-community veto. Under the terms of the WA it's just a simple majority. That's the issue for the DUP."

[RingoMcCartney]

Really looking forward to tonight's Question Time .

No doubt , once again, when The Real People , outside the metropolitan London borough of Ivory Towers, and non naval gazing , political class , are given a voice. They will reflect what the majority want and say-





"Get on with it and bloody do what we told you in 2016 for God's sake "

(Or words to that effect, for the benefit of message board Remoaner pedants )

[joey13]

Will we be getting rid of the following workers rights, from the EU?

EU statutory paid holiday entitlement is 20 days. UK's is 28
EU minimum wage law - doesnt exist. UK has the National Minimum Wage Act 1998
Maternity leave –EU: 14 weeks, UK's is 52 weeks.

Some would have you believe without the EU, we'll be reopening the workhouse.

The main reason leavers want to leave is that we can take back control

[AndyClaret]

Deal or no deal.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11 ... 04770?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[aggi]

The hypocrisy of this. IF labour are going to win the next GE, what the hell does it matter what working rights we agree to, they can always implement their own. The same goes for the environment.
As for adhering to EU standards, and this isn't about wether they are good or bad, just the fact that they don't impose their standards on any other country in the world that they, the EU trades with. When will you understand that leaving means they can't impose their standards on us either.

Over the last 100 years we've created the NHS, the Welfare State, we did it all without any threat from the EU. Our standards of working rights, and environment may never be perfect, but it stacks up against anything most European countries have to offer. They have remainers brainwashed into this idea that we aren't capable of running ourselves, we aren't capable of creating a society with higher standards than any country in the world, including the EU. That we aren't capable of competing and succeeding on the world stage as an industrialised nation in our own right. Its all ********. We have it in our own hands to make of this country what we want, but its down to us, not the EU, not America, just us. It's insulting, and very sad, that you have so little faith in the people of this country, wether that's your family, your friends, your neighbours, your work colleagues. Trust me, if we pull together and stop acting like frightened little school girls, there is nothing to stop us, but ourselves.

That's not actually a fact though. Modern trade deals include far more than just trade within their scope.

CETA (the EU/Canada trade deal) for instance includes various undertakings on workers' rights and the environment.

[dsr]

This sums up the DUP problem

"The issue for the DUP is that the Good Friday Agreement provides for a cross-community veto. Under the terms of the WA it's just a simple majority. That's the issue for the DUP."

All this stuff about Ireland was (officially, at least) to comply with the GFA. So why shouldn't the withdrawal agreement include the cross-community veto as the GFA wants?

[aggi]

I don’t want to be in a customs union, that has lots of negatives that come with.

I don’t believe there is any country in the customs union that can control its borders on immigration. I think they all have to accept EU laws as well.

Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, controls its borders on immigration and doesn't accept all EU laws.

[If it be your will]

Will we be getting rid of the following workers rights, from the EU?

EU statutory paid holiday entitlement is 20 days. UK's is 28
EU minimum wage law - doesnt exist. UK has the National Minimum Wage Act 1998
Maternity leave –EU: 14 weeks, UK's is 52 weeks.

Some would have you believe without the EU, we'll be reopening the workhouse.

I've already had this argument on here! My list was longer than yours. It caused great consternation in the remain camp when they were forced to look at how pathetic EU workers' rights actually are, especially when compared to our own. But the EU could never really have strong workers' rights, because it would decimate the economies in East Europe that rely on there being no minimum wage for instance. They wouldn't get the inward investment if there was, say, a E10/h minimum wage throughout the EU. Assembly lines would probably start to migrate West again.

The EU relies on labour arbitrage. It's built in.

[nil_desperandum]

The self serving remainers will vote this down. It's always been about keeping us in the EU, whatever deal came back.

You MAY be correct, but I would say that if you look at the numbers, by far the greatest threat to this comes from the DUP and the ERG. I would imagine that most of the Tory "remainer" rebels would vote for it - after all they mainly voted for May's Withdrawal Agreement, and there will most likely be enough Labour support to get it through if Johnson can get the ERG on board.
It's v easy to blame remainers for this but the reason May's WA didn't go through in the first place was chiefly down to the ERG and DUP.

[Lancasterclaret]

Deal or no deal.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11 ... 04770?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thats a source.

One thing we all should have learnt by now is that such sources are used to test the water to see what the reaction is.

[Lancasterclaret]

All this stuff about Ireland was (officially, at least) to comply with the GFA. So why shouldn't the withdrawal agreement include the cross-community veto as the GFA wants?

Its an agreement between the UK and the EU.

I wasn't consulted.

[Spijed]

Really looking forward to tonight's Question Time .

No doubt , once again, when The Real People , outside the metropolitan London borough of Ivory Towers, and non naval gazing , political class , are given a voice. They will reflect what the majority want and say-

You've never been to London have you?

If you have, you will have seen some of the areas that are amongst the poorest in the country.

Obviously the people in those areas clearly don't matter to you.

[Mala591]

Julie Cooper now in a very difficult position. Should she follow the democratic instruction of her constituents and support this deal or should she follow the anti-democratic Labour whip and vote against it?

One option would be to support the deal and if she gets de-selected then she could stand as an independent candidate at the next general election.

Her 'democratic dignity' would be intact and I would seriously consider supporting her, very difficult, decision.

[Lancasterclaret]

This deal confirms ECJ jurisdiction over NI btw

There are a lot of compromises being made here by the UK and the EU, which is a massive positive.

[Spijed]

Nigel speaks:

Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
·
4m
The commitment to regulatory alignment in this agreement means that the “new deal” is not Brexit, despite improvements on the customs union.

[Elizabeth]

I would expect Julie Cooper to continue as she always has done on Brexit. That is, to ignore the 66% and continue playing party politics.
In fact I can see her completing the ultimate betrayal and voting in favour of a second referendum in any vote. Remember she has always said she wouldn't do but last time opted out of the vote by abstaining.
Do the DUP block vote ie all in favour or all against?

[nil_desperandum]

Julie Cooper now in a very difficult position. Should she follow the democratic instruction of her constituents and support this deal or should she follow the anti-democratic Labour whip and vote against it?

One option would be to support the deal and if she gets de-selected then she could stand as an independent candidate at the next general election.

Her 'democratic dignity' would be intact and I would seriously consider supporting her, very difficult, decision.

How do you know that the majority of her constituents support this deal?. When were they asked?.
In conversations that I've had over the past 6 months or so, I don't know anyone who likes the substance of May's WA, and from what we hear this is essentially May's WA, but with the required change to the backstop, and changes to the "future arrangements" - which are negotiable in any case.
If there were to be a 3 way vote in Burnley, my best guess is that both "No deal" and "remain" would get more votes than this deal.
(Of course it hasn't been tested, so it's only my hunch).
For balance, if the "deal" was then taken off the ballot in a 2nd round of voting, my hunch is that - in Burnley - "no deal" would just about edge it.

[aggi]

Interesting wording in the political declaration about future commitments to a "level playing field". It's obviously pushed these commitments down the line but it's looking like we'd still need significant alignment (and similar rules on state aid, sorry iibyw) to get a trade agreement:

[Quickenthetempo]

There is a rumour going round that Julie Cooper won't be put up in Burnley for the next election, Labour are reportedly going with an Asian candidate.
A wise plan if true, Cooper has no chance but this could bring more of the Asian population out to vote Labour.

[RingoMcCartney]

You've never been to London have you?

If you have, you will have seen some of the areas that are amongst the poorest in the country.

Obviously the people in those areas clearly don't matter to you.

Is that the best you can do!

Of course I've been to London.

Have you left the metropolitan London borough of Ivory Towers!?

Of course their are poor poor areas in the Bubble.

But I'll raise you the fact that in the North West, The North West , The East and West Midlands and the West country there are whole REGIONS that a poor.

And the metropolitan Bubble dwellers haven't given a toss about them FOR DECADES .

And they voted massively to Leave.

[RingoMcCartney]

Remoaners- "We arent against brexit. We just want to stop a no deal brexit"

Boris - "we now have a deal"

Remoaners- "Er, well , er, hang on, er, "

[TheFamilyCat]

Is that the best you can do!

Of course I've been to London.

Have you left the metropolitan London borough of Ivory Towers!?

Of course their are poor poor areas in the Bubble.

But I'll raise you the fact that in the North West, The North West , The East and West Midlands and the West country there are whole REGIONS that a poor.

And the metropolitan Bubble dwellers haven't given a toss about them FOR DECADES .

And they voted massively to Leave.

The whole of the North West is poor?