Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Burnley Ace]

The problem is the Tory's have completely ignored Labour in this whole process for the last 3 years but due to their own incompetence now need to rely on them to support the deal and you're getting upset at Labour for suddenly not doing what you want them to

There have been many pointless things over the last 3 years, involving Labour was so pointless they went for a general election instead!

[martin_p]

By the way, as I posted a few days ago, we have to request the extension by 1st July 2020. So in reality we only have eight months to be in a position where we’re confident we’ll have a trade deal by the end of next year. Factor in a delay for an election and Xmas and you’re probably looking at less than six months to tie up a major international trade deal. That’s just not going to happen.

In fact reading Peter Foster on Twitter it’s even worse than I thought. Apparently there is agreement that trade negotiations are unlikely to start before the spring, so that’s three months of negotiations before we’d need to decide if we wanted an extension. As the extension would also entail negotiating extra ‘divorce’ payments to the EU (the £39bn only covering us up until the end of 2020) then you’d imagine it almost certain Johnson wouldn’t ask for an extension and we’d crash out with no deal on 31st December 2020.

Unless there’s an amendment giving parliament the permission to tell the government to request an extension then anyone voting for the bill is effectively voting for a deferred no deal.

[ClaretAndJew]

Here's what will happen on Brexit.

Nothing.

We won't leave, people will cry for a bit then get on with their lives over something that they never cared about before.

[AndrewJB]

In fact reading Peter Foster on Twitter it’s even worse than I thought. Apparently there is agreement that trade negotiations are unlikely to start before the spring, so that’s three months of negotiations before we’d need to decide if we wanted an extension. As the extension would also entail negotiating extra ‘divorce’ payments to the EU (the £39bn only covering us up until the end of 2020) then you’d imagine it almost certain Johnson wouldn’t ask for an extension and we’d crash out with no deal on 31st December 2020.

Unless there’s an amendment giving parliament the permission to tell the government to request an extension then anyone voting for the bill is effectively voting for a deferred no deal.

Every step of the way, Johnson has been a bounder. His friend's bets against our economy are far more important to him than the country.

[Lowbankclaret]

Here's what will happen on Brexit.

Nothing.

We won't leave, people will cry for a bit then get on with their lives over something that they never cared about before.

I tend to agree we won’t leave.

However the cry to leave will get louder unless things change in this country and the EU.

[Lowbankclaret]

Anyway, back to reality

Asking people to read and understand every single ramification of a 110 page document in three days that will cause massive generationial change in an entire county is beyond silly.

This casual lack of interest in mere details is why we are in this mess.

That’s why it will be defeated, one way or another.

[KateR]

I would think the majority of uk MEPs will vote against. The Lib Dems have the second biggest representation and they don’t want to leave. Similarly the Labour, SNP and Plaid Cymru MEPs will probably vote against. It may only be the 7 or so Tories that vote for. It also possible that Farage may have some influence in the euro right wing group the BP are part of and garner more votes against.

Now I don’t doubt for one moment that the deal will get through the European Parliament, but I don’t think you’ll find any overwhelming solidarity there.

Totally agree with your assessment

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

That’s why it will be defeated, one way or another.

Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick said on the Victoria Derbyshire show he’s voting for it without bothering to read any of the document!

[KateR]

the biggest issue on both sides. all sides of Parliament is that the majority of MP's simply do not have the skill and understanding to read the whole thing and make a sound judgment call, they will have to try and make interpretations and seek advise, however they wont, they will go live and issue statements of look what I have found, this means.......... Then the press, twitter etc will go mad and someone qualified will eventually say well in fact it does not mean that at all and there will be more publicity, discussions and accusations, multiply this across 100's of MP's and chaos is the outcome.

Anyone who believes 600+ people from all backgrounds should read and interpret a legal form of document and make there findings live for all, and get a good outcome is deluded, maybe instead of a referendum on leave/stay we issue the whole document to the people of the UK, have those with proof of nationality read it and send in there wish lists. We can then go back to the EU confidently with our new lists of demands as a democratic country and ensure we leave quickly because the EU will welcome with open arms all the minutia of changes, issue solved, told you leaving was easy, walk in the parks!!

[Lowbankclaret]

Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick said on the Victoria Derbyshire show he’s voting for it without bothering to read any of the document!

Well that’s up to him, I think it will be voted down but it’s going to be very close.

[AndyClaret]

Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick said on the Victoria Derbyshire show he’s voting for it without bothering to read any of the document!

Not quite, he said he's going to read it today, and that 75% is the same as Mays.

[AndyClaret]

Confirmation that if MP's vote against the timetable, then the whole bill will be pulled and an election will be called for, no more hiding or excuses for Corbyn.

[martin_p]

the biggest issue on both sides. all sides of Parliament is that the majority of MP's simply do not have the skill and understanding to read the whole thing and make a sound judgment call, they will have to try and make interpretations and seek advise, however they wont, they will go live and issue statements of look what I have found, this means.......... Then the press, twitter etc will go mad and someone qualified will eventually say well in fact it does not mean that at all and there will be more publicity, discussions and accusations, multiply this across 100's of MP's and chaos is the outcome.

Anyone who believes 600+ people from all backgrounds should read and interpret a legal form of document and make there findings live for all, and get a good outcome is deluded, maybe instead of a referendum on leave/stay we issue the whole document to the people of the UK, have those with proof of nationality read it and send in there wish lists. We can then go back to the EU confidently with our new lists of demands as a democratic country and ensure we leave quickly because the EU will welcome with open arms all the minutia of changes, issue solved, told you leaving was easy, walk in the parks!!

Which is exactly why there should be more time for debate in the HoC, so they can discuss and get clarifications from the government putting the bill forward rather than social media.

[summitclaret]

Brilliant tactics going on. Field gets to ask about worker's rights not being reduced. Ditto Flint on environmental standards and Fitzpatrick on consumer rights and then BJ says of course all of these will be in the bill.

Then Joe Johnson gets the same credit for science.

[Lowbankclaret]

Confirmation that if MP's vote against the timetable, then the whole bill will be pulled and an election will be called for, no more hiding or excuses for Corbyn.

Any self respecting None Tory MP should then vote against.

They all keep telling us they want an election.

Time to put up or shut up.

[KateR]

Which is exactly why there should be more time for debate in the HoC, so they can discuss and get clarifications from the government putting the bill forward rather than social media.

I am not advocating MP's should simply not look at it and pass it as the PM & Gov want in order to reach a deadline. Oct 31 is dead and gone as far as I am concerned, it's time to have another target day and lay out the plan to achieve it including time to review this particular document, a week, 2 weeks, a month, what ever but I also firmly believe having every MP scrutinize is not only wrong but ludicrous. I am sure each and every party could nominate one or two qualified people to review the doc in full on there behalf and present the findings back to them alone and then for those parties to sit with Gov representatives and go through each point in detail.

However as everyone is aware frustration is rampant on all sides, people have closed minds so you could not even guarantee parties/individuals will stand by there own parties rep's once conclusions have been declared, we have probably passed this type of cross party agreement stage.

I have said a few times, I feel it will be rejected, PM/Gov. will tell the EU not willing to discuss anything further, HOC now let's vote on when we have a GE, start all over again once the GE results are in, path forward obviously dictated by GE results with many praying there is a majority Gov. one way or another.

Would be interesting to see how the opposition reacts to a call for a GE now that they have there extension.

[Lowbankclaret]

Boris just confirmed at the dispatch box.

If it’s voted down today he will pull the bill and move to a GE.

[KateR]

Any self respecting None Tory MP should then vote against.

They all keep telling us they want an election.

Time to put up or shut up.

The issue is if in opposition, do you want this Gov to actually sell Brexit to the HOC, then start it and have a GE in 18/24 months etc when probably the majority of people on all sides believe there will be an initial dip, the problem here is will the dip occur during the next phase of negotiations or after agreements and we really leave. Each and every party will be strategizing and play what if scenarios except SNP who will for there own reasons outside this bill want a GE. DUP and LibDem may also want the GE but I see the LibDems gaining more seats than now, DUP will be at risk, I also feel Labour have put many of there seats at risk and think they will be the big losers in a GE and they will be the ones who decide if we go GE or not I think irrespective of all the other opposition parties.

BJ would be better of invoking a no confidence vote of the present Gov. to assure the GE, that would be fun to see for me.

[Spijed]

Boris just confirmed at the dispatch box.

If it’s voted down today he will pull the bill and move to a GE.

I'm still unsure how it plays out with Brexit and a GE if he does or doesn't get a deal

[Spijed]

As for getting a General election it depends on whether the possibility of no-deal is still in play. If it is I can't see Labour supporting it.

[SonofPog]

This deal is a No Deal, BoJo has confirmed he'll not extend the trade negotiations, and his "deal" doesn't allow Parliament to vote to extend. There's no way it'll be done in 13 months, so in a year we'll be out on WTA Terms. Which is of course, why the ERG has backed the deal.

So he gets a no deal "deal", and he's a Brexit hero, or Parliament votes against and he goes for a general election with his stop the remainder parliament story intact.

[KateR]

As for getting a General election it depends on whether the possibility of no-deal is still in play. If it is I can't see Labour supporting it.

It's always a good tactic to start getting the excuses in early.

[martin_p]

As for getting a General election it depends on whether the possibility of no-deal is still in play. If it is I can't see Labour supporting it.

One would imagine that if the bill is withdrawn then within a day or two the EU will offer an extension and it will have to be accepted. The deadline is then put back three months and election votes can happen safe in the knowledge that no deal is averted. Labour may want to wait until after 31st just in case.

[Lowbankclaret]

The issue is if in opposition, do you want this Gov to actually sell Brexit to the HOC, then start it and have a GE in 18/24 months etc when probably the majority of people on all sides believe there will be an initial dip, the problem here is will the dip occur during the next phase of negotiations or after agreements and we really leave. Each and every party will be strategizing and play what if scenarios except SNP who will for there own reasons outside this bill want a GE. DUP and LibDem may also want the GE but I see the LibDems gaining more seats than now, DUP will be at risk, I also feel Labour have put many of there seats at risk and think they will be the big losers in a GE and they will be the ones who decide if we go GE or not I think irrespective of all the other opposition parties.

BJ would be better of invoking a no confidence vote of the present Gov. to assure the GE, that would be fun to see for me.

I fully agree with you there.

However you always have to put belief in yourself at the start of any challenge, that you can win. Be it a footy game or a G.E. So if I was a Labour MP I would go for a GE and believe I could win my seat.

[KateR]

One would imagine that if the bill is withdrawn then within a day or two the EU will offer an extension and it will have to be accepted. The deadline is then put back three months and election votes can happen safe in the knowledge that no deal is averted. Labour may want to wait until after 31st just in case.

Why is the no deal option be averted through a 3 month extension?

Surely the Labour party will say it has only been postponed by 3 months, if we have a GE and Tories get a majority Gov then the HOC is in a much worse place than it is today?

Can you help me understand your thinking as opposed to mine?

[martin_p]

I fully agree with you there.

However you always have to put belief in yourself at the start of any challenge, that you can win. Be it a footy game or a G.E. So if I was a Labour MP I would go for a GE and believe I could win my seat.

And your desire for a general election now is nothing to do with the Brexit a Party becoming an irrelevance if a deal is delivered first?

[Lowbankclaret]

I'm still unsure how it plays out with Brexit and a GE if he does or doesn't get a deal

How I see it, could be wrong. If his deal is agreed, the election will not be till 2022.

If it’s not agreed, all sides will fight a GE on its manifesto. If one gets a majority, it’s will, will be done.

Tories would get us out on this deal.

Labour would go for a new deal and have a referendum.

Lib Dem’s would cancel article 50.

I know you know most of that!

[KateR]

I fully agree with you there.

However you always have to put belief in yourself at the start of any challenge, that you can win. Be it a footy game or a G.E. So if I was a Labour MP I would go for a GE and believe I could win my seat.

I would if I was a known Labour leave MP and I would not if I was a Labour remain MP, particularly in a leave constituent. However the leaders will whip of course for what they want regardless, that is what you have to ask yourself, what will JC/DA/KS/JM and co come up with. I f I were them I would continue to try and frustrate and continue to show the country what BJ and the Tories are all about until I believed I could win, right now I don't believe they can but of course that is only my opinion and not fact based.

[Lowbankclaret]

And your desire for a general election now is nothing to do with the Brexit a Party becoming an irrelevance if a deal is delivered first?

If a deal is done, I agree theBrexit Party will be as you say an irrelevance.I don’t think an election will happen till 2022 if a deal is done and the BP will be polling less than 5%.

[martin_p]

Why is the no deal option be averted through a 3 month extension?

Surely the Labour party will say it has only been postponed by 3 months, if we have a GE and Tories get a majority Gov then the HOC is in a much worse place than it is today?

Can you help me understand your thinking as opposed to mine?

It’s not my thinking it’s just the facts. Labour have said they won’t consider a GE until no deal is averted on 31st October, then they want an election. Corbyn must have a level of confidence that he can win a general election. I’m not sure he’s right, but he’ll have a better chance of winning an early election without a deal than if Brexit is delivered and Johnson has effectively done what he promised.

[Lowbankclaret]

Why is the no deal option be averted through a 3 month extension?

Surely the Labour party will say it has only been postponed by 3 months, if we have a GE and Tories get a majority Gov then the HOC is in a much worse place than it is today?

Can you help me understand your thinking as opposed to mine?

The same as last time, would it not.

Parliament past a law to extend article 50 and the EU agreed.

That’s why I am struggling to see how we crash out with out Parliament allowing it.

[RingoMcCartney]

Remoaners -"Its not that we dont want to stop Brexit, we want to stop a no deal, cliff edge brexit.

Boris - "We have a deal that would stop a no deal brexit"

Remoaners- "er well, we need lots and lots of time to scrutinise it. It's probably such a bad deal we need to pour over it endlessly"

Brexiteers- " if it's such a bad deal, why have your friends-

Barnier,

Merkel,

Tusk,

Macron,

and Varadkar


All given it their seal of approval!?


The only people who do not want this deal are around 300 remainiac MPs. Who are flying, shamelessly, in the faces of democracy and , according to the 26000 participant Comres poll, the majority of the British People.

[martin_p]

If a deal is done, I agree theBrexit Party will be as you say an irrelevance.I don’t think an election will happen till 2022 if a deal is done and the BP will be polling less than 5%.

I’m not sure you’re right about there not being an election until 2022. The Tories will want one as will the SNP. Labour say they want one but may change their minds but there may still be the two thirds required to call an election.

[AndyClaret]

If a deal is done, I agree theBrexit Party will be as you say an irrelevance.I don’t think an election will happen till 2022 if a deal is done and the BP will be polling less than 5%.

There will still be an election even if he gets a deal, he has no majority, so can't get anything through the house.

[martin_p]

Remoaners -"Its not that we dont want to stop Brexit, we want to stop a no deal, cliff edge brexit.

Boris - "We have a deal that would stop a no deal brexit"

Remoaners- "er well, we need lots and lots of time to scrutinise it. It's probably such a bad deal we need to pour over it endlessly"

Brexiteers- " if it's such a bad deal, why have your friends-

Barnier,

Merkel,

Tusk,

Macron,

and Varadkar


All given it their seal of approval!?


The only people who do not want this deal are around 300 remainiac MPs. Who are flying, shamelessly, in the faces of democracy and , according to the 26000 participant Comres poll, the majority of the British People.

Ah it’s self confessed ‘no brain’ Wrongo. Surprised you’re back after yesterday’s disaster.

[Lowbankclaret]

I would if I was a known Labour leave MP and I would not if I was a Labour remain MP, particularly in a leave constituent. However the leaders will whip of course for what they want regardless, that is what you have to ask yourself, what will JC/DA/KS/JM and co come up with. I f I were them I would continue to try and frustrate and continue to show the country what BJ and the Tories are all about until I believed I could win, right now I don't believe they can but of course that is only my opinion and not fact based.

Again I agree, that’s the position today.

Labour closed a Tory lead last time, would they not back themselves to do the same again. I agree it would be hard to do so.

[martin_p]

There will still be an election even if he gets a deal, he has no majority, so can't get anything through the house.

But only with Labour support.

[Lowbankclaret]

There will still be an election even if he gets a deal, he has no majority, so can't get anything through the house.

As we have seen with the fixed term Parliament act, it’s not that easy to call an election now.

As Kate points out the other parties are not keen on a GE at this time for the reason she points out.

[dsr]

I’m not sure you’re right about there not being an election until 2022. The Tories will want one as will the SNP. Labour say they want one but may change their minds but there may still be the two thirds required to call an election.

Tories want an election, so if Labour also want one, there will be two-thirds of the House and we will have an election. But if Labour don't want an election, then they have more than one-third of the House in their own right, so we won't have an election.

I'm sure Labour, or elements of the party including the de facto leadership (not Corbyn), would be quite willing to carry on voting against everything the government wants to do, with SNP help, and paralysing the system of government until we have another election in May 2022 - which they would surely get hammered in because so many people would be sick of them by then. But their big problem with that is that the EU, even though it would like the UK to stay in, will eventually get sick of the continued uncertainty. They would refuse an extension before then, I reckon.

[RingoMcCartney]

Ah it’s self confessed ‘no brain’ Wrongo. Surprised you’re back after yesterday’s disaster.

Ah this you mean.

It's been said-

BY THE AGE OF 20, IF YOU'RE NOT A SOCIALIST, YOU HAVE NO HEART.


BY THE AGE OF 40, IF YOURE NOT CONSERVATIVE, YOU HAVE NO BRAIN......

Says the self confessed life long Labour supporter.

I only say I'm a labour supporter to the production team of various radio stations.

And by the way, the Labour party stopped be a Socialist party years ago.

Once they were the working class party now there an Islington dinner party

As I've said to the nation more than once!


(Its funny what you can get away with on national radio if you tell people what they want hear!)

[AndyClaret]

But only with Labour support.

Well Corbyn says he wants one or is he a massive liar ?

[martin_p]

Tories want an election, so if Labour also want one, there will be two-thirds of the House and we will have an election. But if Labour don't want an election, then they have more than one-third of the House in their own right, so we won't have an election.

Guess that depends on how well Labour MPs stick to the party line. If every other party voted for a GE it would take about 35 Labour MPs to defy the whip which may not be beyond the realms of possibility. Certainly some Labour MPs have no love for Corbyn and if they were confident in their own seat they may see it as an opportunity to get rid of Corbyn. He’d almost certainly have to resign the party leadership if he didn’t win.

[martin_p]

Ah this you mean.

It's been said-

BY THE AGE OF 20, IF YOU'RE NOT A SOCIALIST, YOU HAVE NO HEART.


BY THE AGE OF 40, IF YOURE NOT CONSERVATIVE, YOU HAVE NO BRAIN......



I only say I'm a labour supporter to the production team of various radio stations.

And by the way, the Labour party stopped be a Socialist party years ago.

Once they were the working class party now there an Islington dinner party

As I've said to the nation more than once!


(Its funny what you can get away with on national radio if you tell people what they want hear!)

So you’re a self confessed liar as well now (but then you lied about not believing your little quote, so we knew that).

And Labour are more socialist now than they have been for a generation.

[Mala591]

Ref. General Election:
The government could table a short bill which proposes a general election on a specific date. This only needs a simple commons majority to pass although it must also meet with the approval of 'the other place'.

[Spijed]

One thing I'm puzzled by is why the government are carrying on trying to get this bill through.

If it gets through they will call for an election.

If it doesn't get through they will call for an election.

What difference does it make to Boris?

He either says the government has been stopped by opposition MP's or he presents this new deal to the public.

What difference does it make?

[martin_p]

Ref. General Election:
The government could table a short bill which proposes a general election on a specific date. This only needs a simple commons majority to pass although it must also meet with the approval of 'the other place'.

True, I’d forgotten about that. It’s amendable which is why Johnson hasn’t used it before because it could have been used to ensure an election only happened after no deal on 31st had been averted. Once that has happened anyway I guess there’s nothing to stop him using it. The SNP are itching for an election and would almost certainly support it giving it a majority.

[martin_p]

One thing I'm puzzled by is why the government are carrying on trying to get this bill through.

If it gets through they will call for an election.

If it doesn't get through they will call for an election.

What difference does it make to Boris?

He either says the government has been stopped by opposition MP's or he presents this new deal to the public.

What difference does it make?

It’s a failure to deliver on his part which may not go down well. Plus having a ratified deal nullifies the threat of the Brexit Party which is certainly a risk to him getting a majority.

[KateR]

It’s not my thinking it’s just the facts. Labour have said they won’t consider a GE until no deal is averted on 31st October, then they want an election. Corbyn must have a level of confidence that he can win a general election. I’m not sure he’s right, but he’ll have a better chance of winning an early election without a deal than if Brexit is delivered and Johnson has effectively done what he promised.

Sorry but I believe you are wrong, I will agree that JC & co stated they would have a GE after no deal is off the table, that is a fact.

It is not a fact that they will, if this bill today fails, agree to a GE in the next 3 months, exclude Christmas also, actually I think there is a good chance they will say no for the reasons you pointed out, there is a delay, but is no deal off the table permanently, I don't think so but will say I am not 100% sure of this statement.

While thinking on this I will highlight that if it fails today the Gov say they will pull the bill and advise the EU accordingly, thereby now there is actually no bill, so would the amendments to the bill be still if force, if they are tied to the actual bill I would be fairly confident the Gov will say no they are not.

The Labour party and others are all saying the same, on go to GE once no deal is definitely 100% off the table, I don't believe it is, for the next 3 months yes, however GE & Tory majority under BJ will mean what to all remainers?

[martin_p]

Sorry but I believe you are wrong, I will agree that JC & co stated they would have a GE after no deal is off the table, that is a fact.

It is not a fact that they will, if this bill today fails, agree to a GE in the next 3 months, exclude Christmas also, actually I think there is a good chance they will say no for the reasons you pointed out, there is a delay, but is no deal off the table permanently, I don't think so but will say I am not 100% sure of this statement.

While thinking on this I will highlight that if it fails today the Gov say they will pull the bill and advise the EU accordingly, thereby now there is actually no bill, so would the amendments to the bill be still if force, if they are tied to the actual bill I would be fairly confident the Gov will say no they are not.

The Labour party and others are all saying the same, on go to GE once no deal is definitely 100% off the table, I don't believe it is, for the next 3 months yes, however GE & Tory majority under BJ will mean what to all remainers?

As Mala has pointed out an election can probably be called with just a straight majority and I’m pretty sure the SNP will give the Tories that.

Corbyn will believe he can win an election in the event of the bill not being passed and an extension. I’m not so sure personally.

The impact of a Tory majority in such an election is likely to be leaving on the terms of the deal on the table now, it would seem bizarre in the extreme to resort to no deal when we have a deal that both the EU and the Tories support. So it’ll be no worse a position than we’re in now from a remainer point of view, but an election provides a last chance (albeit a small one) of changing course.

Not sure what you’re talking about when you say the amendments to the bill will not be in force, there haven’t been any yet.

[dsr]

Ref. General Election:
The government could table a short bill which proposes a general election on a specific date. This only needs a simple commons majority to pass although it must also meet with the approval of 'the other place'.

But presumably it would also face a court action about frustrating the will of Parliament. If they can take the government to court for sending a letter to the EU without appearing to mean what they say, then I'm sure it could be argued that a bill to have an early election is not valid while the bill preventing an early election is still in force. I have no idea what the Courts' position is when they are forced to adjudicate between two contrary bills that are both in force.

Opponents could definitely claim it was flouting the spirit of the law, and in that case the Court would actually have some potential redress.