Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:20 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:I'm not sure it's a downside.

I like that you're embracing Caps Lock Day.

lol I forgot after my reply to Martin, I will try to do better, honestly

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:21 pm

martin_p wrote:No mention of a general election since the defeat. Johnson making threats he has no intention of following through?

His new treaty past, first a treaty has been voted for.

However the house want an extension and they have tried to get it.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:23 pm

KateR wrote:lol I forgot after my reply to Martin, I will try to do better, honestly

I wasn't having a dig. It's literally Caps Lock Day. 22nd October.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:28 pm

where will the SNP & LibDems go now I wonder after the passing of a large hurdle, the greens are sure to follow, plus of course those who left to set up the party of the future, now that's been a real successful outcome from Brexit, another major party to vote for and make a meaningful stamp on British politics. (lol, I really for the life of me can not remember what they branded themselves as)

Plus how will DUP act now with there close allies, I think we all know pretty much where the Brexit Party will be.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:32 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:His new treaty past, first a treaty has been voted for.

However the house want an extension and they have tried to get it.

It’s far from passed, it’s just got through to a second reading. A number of Labour MPs who voted for it are saying they’ll only vote for again if it’s amended.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:43 pm

Is Nigel back in play?

Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
·
46m
Do or die is over, we have now moved on to dying in a ditch. We will not be leaving the EU on 31st October.

Elizabeth · Post by **Elizabeth** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:43 pm

Boris Johnson wins massive approval for his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
That 30 MP majority is going to take some whittling down.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:44 pm

We will be out of the EU in about 4 weeks time.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:46 pm

Mala591 wrote:We will be out of the EU in about 4 weeks time.

Keep going with predictions......you've got to get one right sooner or later

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:49 pm

martin_p wrote:It’s far from passed, it’s just got through to a second reading. A number of Labour MPs who voted for it are saying they’ll only vote for again if it’s amended.

small steps Martin, small steps!

Don't pour cold water and scorn over this long awaited moment of the Gov actually having a vote go in there favour, let people bask in this glow (well embers) and start again tomorrow with tearing everything apart from the Gov and BJ in particular.

Bask quietly in your victory of ensuring BJ not getting things done by 31 Oct, tomorrow you can move to the die in a ditch, and tell us 01 Nov he lied yet again

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:54 pm

Latest poll

Remain 55%

Leave 45%

I don't mind Andy posting polls, but he's very selective

Bordeauxclaret · Post by **Bordeauxclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:56 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Latest poll

Remain 55%

Leave 45%

I don't mind Andy posting polls, but he's very selective

I’m just looking forward to Election Night. He’ll give Jeremy Vine a run for his money.

Elizabeth · Post by **Elizabeth** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:57 pm

So what's your point Lancaster?
Is it that we should have a second referendum ? Is it that we should revoke Article 50?
Just what is your point ?

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:00 pm

Mala591 wrote:Vote prediction:

I predict that a significant number of Labour MPs in leave majority constituencies will defy their whip and support the new withdrawal agreement and that it will pass by 30 votes.

A victory for common sense and democracy.

FAO Devils Advocate

This prediction was posted on Friday Oct 18th

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:00 pm

So if I was pm i would ask for an extension until 15 nov with a reserve of 31 jan. That would force labour to agree to his deal or face a GE. I think labour would prefer the former. There will be a GE soon anyway as the gov has lost the DUP.

Clearly a second ref has no chance now given the nr of labour leave or abstentions. Howeverif a CU passes then it will be a GE.

A GE would come from a new bill for a GE on a set date e.g. 12 dec. The SNP will probably back it.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:03 pm

Mala591 wrote:FAO Devils Advocate

This prediction was posted on Friday Oct 18th

That was for Saturdays vote and you were wrong.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:04 pm

Rumours abound that an unlimited extension so that it is 100% up to the UK to sort it out.

Elizabeth · Post by **Elizabeth** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:07 pm

The EU have agreed the deal so I don't know why you think that's worthy of news

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:14 pm

martin_p wrote:It’s far from passed, it’s just got through to a second reading. A number of Labour MPs who voted for it are saying they’ll only vote for again if it’s amended.

That was it’s second reading.

It’s all a game to get past the 31st, I think.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:17 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Rumours abound that an unlimited extension so that it is 100% up to the UK to sort it out.

Is an open ended extension a good or bad things though.

Having a time frame is supposed to concentrate the minds where others will say that gives us plenty of time to scrutinize this top to bottom, side to side and list all our grievances and amendments in one big hit.

However are the EU also saying, we have a deal, it isn't changing, not one dot or one T. Let us know when you want to activate but don't come back it's a real take it or leave it deal. If they said and meant this and stuck by it then I'd be fine with open ended.

You as parliament can decide, deal or no deal, GE or referendum however we as EU are doing nothing, nada, zilch. Let us know when you've made your mind up please then we can move on to the next step/phase or not.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:19 pm

They are all acting like an election is coming, with the key issue being whether Boris has broken his pledge to leave by Oct 31st.

The answer of course is that he didn’t - he had it broken for him. He had a deal, he had a timetable. Not unreasonable to want a few weeks to assess it but there wasn’t anything Johnson could do to leave by 31st. I suspect that fact will be reflected in the ballot box.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:19 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Latest poll

Remain 55%

Leave 45%

I don't mind Andy posting polls, but he's very selective

I have given up with polls.

I joined yougov.

For the first couple of months they sent me lots of polls on voting intentions.

I put Brexit Party and leave every time.

Not had a yougov poll on voting intention for three months.

Having brought this up on a Brexit party it appears there is a theme.

If you say BP and leave they stop sending you polls to answer.

Great way to get the Polls what you want to say.

No wonder they keep getting actual results wrong.

Claret-On-A-T-Rex · Post by **Claret-On-A-T-Rex** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:29 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:They are all acting like an election is coming, with the key issue being whether Boris has broken his pledge to leave by Oct 31st.

The answer of course is that he didn’t - he had it broken for him. He had a deal, he had a timetable. Not unreasonable to want a few weeks to assess it but there wasn’t anything Johnson could do to leave by 31st. I suspect that fact will be reflected in the ballot box.

Like me promising Burnley will win the premier league and other teams breaking my promise for me.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:34 pm

Jan 31st

In line with UK request.

Election in the meantime

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:35 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:Like me promising Burnley will win the premier league and other teams breaking my promise for me.

exactly right, nothing wrong in believing and promising that Burnley will win the Premiere League is there?

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:38 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:That was it’s second reading.

Correct, but the biggest hurdle is yet to come.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:38 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Jan 31st

In line with UK request.

Election in the meantime

Is this a prediction, a quote from someone or more than one someone?

NOTE: I agree and have been saying so for some time, if fact I was predicting a 70% chance of May going to GE way back after the second failure. I think it is the only way, I have got to be right sometime

haven't I ??

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:41 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:I have given up with polls.

I joined yougov.

For the first couple of months they sent me lots of polls on voting intentions.

I put Brexit Party and leave every time.

Not had a yougov poll on voting intention for three months.

Having brought this up on a Brexit party it appears there is a theme.

If you say BP and leave they stop sending you polls to answer.

Great way to get the Polls what you want to say.

No wonder they keep getting actual results wrong.

Ah, I love a good conspiracy theory. Presumably the BP numbers are tumbling and will be zero very soon.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:44 pm

martin_p wrote:Ah, I love a good conspiracy theory. Presumably the BP numbers are tumbling and will be zero very soon.

Just making an observation based on my experience.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:47 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:Just making an observation based on my experience.

But just apply some common sense. If they stopped sending polls to people who say they will vote BP then their figures would be down to zero.

Greenmile · Post by **Greenmile** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:50 pm

martin_p wrote:But just apply some common sense. If they stopped sending polls to people who say they will vote BP then their figures would be down to zero.

That’s not “common sense” - it’s logic. The two things are not the same (and are often mutually exclusive, it seems).

Claret-On-A-T-Rex · Post by **Claret-On-A-T-Rex** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Jan 31st

In line with UK request.

Election in the meantime

The twists and turns have been utterly unpredictable and we're now here.
Somebody, somehow passed a Brexit tonight then had it scuppered twenty minutes later!!??
What might happen tomorrow is beyond anybody's guess.
Resign, vote of confidence, vote of confidence called by himself, open ended extension, amendments with a customs union, second referendum, general election, no deal, court proceedings...

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:15 pm

An election means anything is possible

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:19 pm

Dec 12th

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:23 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Dec 12th

That’s the earliest it’s likely to happen, although in theory if agreement to an election was agreed in the next 24 hours it could be 5th December (unlikely). But if a decision isn’t reached on an election in the next eight days I think it would be difficult to hold one before Xmas.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:27 pm

Would anyone want an election where the daylight hours are short, meaning less time to campaign during each day?

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:30 pm

Spijed wrote:Would anyone want an election where the daylight hours are short, meaning less time to campaign during each day?

I think given her time again Theresa May would love it!

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:36 pm

Elizabeth wrote:Boris Johnson wins massive approval for his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
That 30 MP majority is going to take some whittling down.

Except that 19 labour MPs were needed to get it through, and should Johnson decide to bring the bill back, the vast majority of them will vote for an amendment that involves remaining in the CU at the next stage, (+ probably some more of the rebel Tories), so it wouldn't be Johnson's deal, [providing that Corbyn, Swinson,Blackford etc can persuade the DUP to support them.]

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:37 pm

There’s a handy summary of Johnson talking ******** about leaving by 31st and not requesting an extension.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirr ... 659428.amp

Elizabeth · Post by **Elizabeth** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:46 pm

We don't know that for sure ' nil' and anyone who thinks they can predict the future based on the past is in my opinion foolhardy.

People are too quick to take tonight's progress away from Johnson. The momentum is with the PM , the country is fully behind him

taio · Post by **taio** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:47 pm

martin_p wrote:There’s a handy summary of Johnson talking ******** about leaving by 31st and not requesting an extension.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirr ... 659428.amp

He's done everything he can to do so. Poor article.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:51 pm

Elizabeth wrote:We don't know that for sure ' nil' and anyone who thinks they can predict the future based on the past is in my opinion foolhardy.

People are too quick to take tonight's progress away from Johnson. The momentum is with the PM , the country is fully behind him

First sentence - agree totally
2nd sentence - ridiculous. "fully"/ behind him?
At best it would be just over 50%, and in a Gen Election more likely around 30 / 35%

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:16 pm

Spijed wrote:Would anyone want an election where the daylight hours are short, meaning less time to campaign during each day?

Many of the people nowadays have the newfangled electric light, so campaigning need not end at dusk.

They might prefer to campaign in Spring or Summer, but being afraid of the dark is not a valid reason to kick the election a further 4 months down the line. Of course, Labour might think that they like the situation as it is - have they confirmed that they will agree an election?

claret_in_exile · Post by **claret_in_exile** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:27 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Rumours abound that an unlimited extension so that it is 100% up to the UK to sort it out.

This would be a good move on the part of the EU.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:28 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Rumours abound that an unlimited extension so that it is 100% up to the UK to sort it out.

Hi Lancs, I saw earlier today that you were concerned about the "length" of the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill.

Yes, it's 115 pages from front cover to back cover. There's lots and lots of repetitive stuff, as is the nature of Bills (and Acts when they are enacted) referencing all the specific areas that need to be referenced.

The Bill itself starts (on page 5): BE IT ENACTED by the Queen’s most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, and Commons, in this present Parliament assembled, and by the authority of the same, as follows:—

After section 1 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (repeal of the European Communities Act 1972) insert—

Full doc link:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... __Bill.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So, first thing we learn is that there is already the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018..... so, we aren't starting with a "blank sheet of paper."

My second point, a contract of 115 pages, if it was in the area I worked all the time would take me max 3 hours to know and understand what was in there - and be ready to debate/negotiate what I agreed with and what I felt I'd like to change. (I did this sort of stuff - of course, not in politics, but other contractual areas regularly up to 9-10 years ago).

MPs have all their legal support staff to do all the "leg work" with them. They would already know and understand what all the associated documents say. They would split up the new EUWAB and could gather together their views overnight. The political parties will already know what their "target" amendments are.

Of course, the political debates can be very lengthy...... and, that's got nothing to do with the word count of the Bill..... and, everything to do with the intentions of the debaters. I'm sure we will hear the same arguments made that we've heard before. That's the nature of the beast.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:31 pm

martin_p wrote:So you’re a self confessed liar as well now (but then you lied about not believing your little quote, so we knew that).

And Labour are more socialist now than they have been for a generation.

Labour ? Socialist?! Starmer? Thornberry? Benn? Harmann? Cooper? Bradshaw? Hodge? Champagne yes! Socialist? Youre having a bubble

Self confessed liar? I'll confess to not giving a shiny shoite what you think Marty!

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:32 pm

dsr wrote:Many of the people nowadays have the newfangled electric light, so campaigning need not end at dusk.

They might prefer to campaign in Spring or Summer, but being afraid of the dark is not a valid reason to kick the election a further 4 months down the line. Of course, Labour might think that they like the situation as it is - have they confirmed that they will agree an election?

What is this devilish magic? What is this new fangled electric light? Look it sparkles! it glows! We are quiet people, this is a local shop for local people! Don't touch it Tubs, Agh Tubs, I said "don't touch!"

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:33 pm

If the EU genuinely want the first phase of Brexit done then they should allow a two or three WEEKS extension to keep pressure on the UK government to finalise Johnson's deal.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:37 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Labour ? Socialist?! Starmer? Thornberry? Benn? Harmann? Cooper? Bradshaw? Hodge? Champagne yes! Socialist? Youre having a bubble

Self confessed liar? I'll confess to not giving a shiny shoite what you think Marty!

Yeah, that’s why you keep replying to my posts denying things.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:43 pm

Mala591 wrote:If the EU genuinely want the first phase of Brexit done then they should allow a two or three WEEKS extension to keep pressure on the UK government to finalise Johnson's deal.

And if Johnson genuinely wanted it done he would have carried on the debate on the bill over the next couple of days even if he can’t have a vote about it on Thursday. They could understand what the amendments might be and understand what the extension might need to be. Instead they’re debating the Queen’s speech which will irrelevant if there is a snap election.