Brexit: The Naked Truth

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TVC15
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:45 pm

KateR wrote:GM and the vast majority on here would not have a clue how to interrogate an economic model of any complexity involving integrated spreadsheets, with numerous assumptions, where the potentially you can run it as - expected - better - worse by manipulating conditions, this involve natural disasters, manmade disasters just as a small example. This is not a criticism as I really don't believe they have read an economic models, which forecasts the doom and gloom of Brexit, they have read the projected outcomes, I looked at the actual words used by these experts even the ones highlighted today, prominent words were used, because they were experts, should, could have an exact legal meaning when you go to court over arbitration for example, they are cop out weasel words experts use that ensure there predictions have no basis behind them such that if someone uses there work they can never come back and try to sue on the basis of losses. I'm sure the vast majority have read the same weasel words by every company, every prospectus for shares/unit trusts etc. In other words we think this might happen but we will never guarantee it will, why, because they are so often wrong because you can not model the future, it is not a science, some I have seen are at the best a SWAG.

I certainly would never try to look at an economic or financial model by anyone on here or by todays so called experts who drop headlines which are in reality built on guesses, I am GM and co I just look at the outcomes, but then I do try to look behind why they have predicted something in order to satisfy myself as to whether it is relevant to the headline or not. So please don't build and publish any economic models on here please, I mean anyone.
Or in short - a model is only as good as its assumptions
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:55 pm

TVC15 wrote:Or in short - a model is only as good as its assumptions
Even shorter - GIGO

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:01 pm

so using the economic model discussion as a lead into to this point, bearing in mind so many believe we are in for doom and gloom plus perhaps light at then of the leave tunnel, all be it a pinprick of light, has anyone started:

A savings slush fund for the hard times

Stock piling food or medicines or any other goods for the hard times

I feel these would be good pointers as to how much you believe the experts, however that can easily be counter balanced by the belief in we will never leave so there is no need to do that!

I for one have not done anything above or any other activity in the fear the experts will be right, but I know we are all in different places in our lives so that is another variable.

If we use a logical Trumpism, if you are so poor today, what have you got to lose by going in to the unknown and taking a chance on Boris and Brexit? If you are well to do to rich you can weather the initial downturn which will be happening. Do you believe Brexit will be worse than the crash of 2008 which I assume we all lived through?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:02 pm

dsr wrote:Even shorter - GIGO

I prefer SISO, but hey all mean the same, what is everyone Frit of I ask myself. :)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:02 pm

KateR wrote:GM and the vast majority on here would not have a clue how to interrogate an economic model of any complexity involving integrated spreadsheets, with numerous assumptions, where the potentially you can run it as - expected - better - worse by manipulating conditions, this involve natural disasters, manmade disasters just as a small example. This is not a criticism as I really don't believe they have read an economic models, which forecasts the doom and gloom of Brexit, they have read the projected outcomes, I looked at the actual words used by these experts even the ones highlighted today, prominent words were used, because they were experts, should, could have an exact legal meaning when you go to court over arbitration for example, they are cop out weasel words experts use that ensure there predictions have no basis behind them such that if someone uses there work they can never come back and try to sue on the basis of losses. I'm sure the vast majority have read the same weasel words by every company, every prospectus for shares/unit trusts etc. In other words we think this might happen but we will never guarantee it will, why, because they are so often wrong because you can not model the future, it is not a science, some I have seen are at the best a SWAG.

I certainly would never try to look at an economic or financial model by anyone on here or by todays so called experts who drop headlines which are in reality built on guesses, I am GM and co I just look at the outcomes, but then I do try to look behind why they have predicted something in order to satisfy myself as to whether it is relevant to the headline or not. So please don't build and publish any economic models on here please, I mean anyone.
I’m no economics expert, but I am a mathematician and can find my way round a spreadsheet and I understand the ripple effect one small change to one assumption can have on an outcome. But my question is this. Why are there significantly more economic projections for dire economic consequences pertaining to Brexit than anything approaching positive ones? It seems that even the predictions that might be considered optimistic still predict a small downturn. Why isn’t anyone using an economic model to predict Brexit success (and if I’ve missed them where are they)?

It’s not individual forecasts that worry me but the fact that the vast majority of forecasts out there are predicting significant economic downturn. So while I accept individual forecast may be biased one way or another when so many are coming up with different flavours of bad, how is that explained away?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:06 pm

KateR wrote:so using the economic model discussion as a lead into to this point, bearing in mind so many believe we are in for doom and gloom plus perhaps light at then of the leave tunnel, all be it a pinprick of light, has anyone started:

A savings slush fund for the hard times

Stock piling food or medicines or any other goods for the hard times

I feel these would be good pointers as to how much you believe the experts, however that can easily be counter balanced by the belief in we will never leave so there is no need to do that!

I for one have not done anything above or any other activity in the fear the experts will be right, but I know we are all in different places in our lives so that is another variable.

If we use a logical Trumpism, if you are so poor today, what have you got to lose by going in to the unknown and taking a chance on Boris and Brexit? If you are well to do to rich you can weather the initial downturn which will be happening. Do you believe Brexit will be worse than the crash of 2008 which I assume we all lived through?
I’ve upped my savings and have a small stockpile of non-perishable food.

My maxim tends to be “hope for the best, but prepare for the worst”, though, so I suspect I’m in a minority.

The Trumpism falls down for the poor, because things can always get worse for them, in this country at least.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:09 pm

KateR wrote:so using the economic model discussion as a lead into to this point, bearing in mind so many believe we are in for doom and gloom plus perhaps light at then of the leave tunnel, all be it a pinprick of light, has anyone started:

A savings slush fund for the hard times

Stock piling food or medicines or any other goods for the hard times

I feel these would be good pointers as to how much you believe the experts, however that can easily be counter balanced by the belief in we will never leave so there is no need to do that!

I for one have not done anything above or any other activity in the fear the experts will be right, but I know we are all in different places in our lives so that is another variable.

If we use a logical Trumpism, if you are so poor today, what have you got to lose by going in to the unknown and taking a chance on Boris and Brexit? If you are well to do to rich you can weather the initial downturn which will be happening. Do you believe Brexit will be worse than the crash of 2008 which I assume we all lived through?
But significant numbers, while they literally lived through the crash and resulting austerity, did so with significant difficulty. It’s a fact that homelessness and the use of food banks went up during that period, it’s also a fact that a large proportion of the population saw the breaks applied to their earnings while the cost of living went up.

Lots of people ‘live through’ car crashes every year. That doesn’t mean we should drive our collective ‘uk car’ straight at a wall.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:09 pm

The assumptions made by the Pro-Brexit bunch (this is exclusively the economic argument btw)

- Basic FTA with the EU rather than the current SM/CU
- FTAs with the rest of the world

No one sane is arguing that the first bit doesn't hit us hard but they seem convinced that the 2nd part will replace the losses due to losing the first part.

To me, the chances of 2) beating 1) in any vaguely achievable timescale is beyond daft and that way results in us all being poorer, and that is before you add all the other advantages of being in the EU.

Thats not an economic model btw, its just reading stuff and drawing a conclusion based on common sense.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TheFamilyCat » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:10 pm

KateR wrote:I prefer SISO, but hey all mean the same, what is everyone Frit of I ask myself. :)
As long as it's not Dido.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:18 pm

martin_p wrote:I’m no economics expert, but I am a mathematician and can find my way round a spreadsheet and I understand the ripple effect one small change to one assumption can have on an outcome. But my question is this. Why are there significantly more economic projections for dire economic consequences pertaining to Brexit than anything approaching positive ones? It seems that even the predictions that might be considered optimistic still predict a small downturn. Why isn’t anyone using an economic model to predict Brexit success (and if I’ve missed them where are they)?

It’s not individual forecasts that worry me but the fact that the vast majority of forecasts out there are predicting significant economic downturn. So while I accept individual forecast may be biased one way or another when so many are coming up with different flavours of bad, how is that explained away?
Is that correct though ? Surely there are no official numbers as to how many models have been done in the last 3 years - I could have a go at building a model to show this and predict how many more will be built !!

What has happened is that some of the crazy ones showing positive outcomes now seem to have disappeared - some of that utter sh-ite was a perfect example of how you can build a model to say anything you want and unfortunately some people will still believe it - not because they understand it but simply because they want to believe it because it aligns to their other views as to why they want to leave.

It’s generally accepted now that there will be a negative impact - so it’s all about degrees of doom and gloom. It’s interesting how those leavers who were arguing that the positive outcome models were correct have now changed their language to “it’s a price worth paying for getting more sovereignty back”.....or something along those “you can take away my freedom etc..Braveheart ********
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:21 pm

TVC15 wrote:Is that correct though ? Surely there are no official numbers as to how many models have been done in the last 3 years - I could have a go at building a model to show this and predict how many more will be built !!

What has happened is that some of the crazy ones showing positive outcomes now seem to have disappeared - some of that utter sh-ite was a perfect example of how you can build a model to say anything you want and unfortunately some people will still believe it - not because they understand it but simply because they want to believe it because it aligns to their other views as to why they want to leave.

It’s generally accepted now that there will be a negative impact - so it’s all about degrees of doom and gloom. It’s interesting how those leavers who were arguing that the positive outcome models were correct have now changed their language to “it’s a price worth paying for getting more sovereignty back”.....or something along those “you can take away my freedom etc..Braveheart ********
it is all about "a price worth paying" now

There is no way that would have worked in 2016. It would have been a catastrophic Brexiteer defeat.

This is one of the main reasons why this will break the country unless it is done correctly.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:23 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:it is all about "a price worth paying" now

There is no way that would have worked in 2016. It would have been a catastrophic Brexiteer defeat.

This is one of the main reasons why this will break the country unless it is done correctly.
I’m in danger of getting sucked into this thread !
I promised I wouldn’t - it’s like crack cocaine.
I’m supposed to be working from home today !
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:25 pm

TVC15 wrote:I’m in danger of getting sucked into this thread !
I promised I wouldn’t - it’s like crack cocaine.
I’m supposed to be working from home today !
I work from home.

I do a lot more work when I'm not on here!
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:27 pm

martin_p wrote:I’m no economics expert, but I am a mathematician and can find my way round a spreadsheet and I understand the ripple effect one small change to one assumption can have on an outcome. But my question is this. Why are there significantly more economic projections for dire economic consequences pertaining to Brexit than anything approaching positive ones? It seems that even the predictions that might be considered optimistic still predict a small downturn. Why isn’t anyone using an economic model to predict Brexit success (and if I’ve missed them where are they)?

It’s not individual forecasts that worry me but the fact that the vast majority of forecasts out there are predicting significant economic downturn. So while I accept individual forecast may be biased one way or another when so many are coming up with different flavours of bad, how is that explained away?
Martin, perhaps you have misunderstood my points on these models posts.

I am not trying to say ignore the forecasts, it is essential I believe to read them and make conclusions, I also believe we will have a downturn when Brexit happens, I am not saying so called experts are wrong either, what I was trying to say is that they will not be 100% right and people can not say they have not been warned. I expect a whole slew of these experts to come out afterwards and say "I told you so", but it is similar to many mass expert predications, some people built shelters from the atomic fallout based on similar experts, vast majority did not. Hence my follow up question, you clearly believe it's going to be disastrous, I don't, therefore I have not changed my habit or my family's habits one iota, have you? From your continued posts and copy/paste from the expert predications I would have expected you to have actually changed something in your life to protect your family, have you or have you not?

Just be even further clear on this I expect the down turn, I don't think it will have a major effect on me, my family and I believe within a relatively short time frame things will improve and we will have the potential to be better than where we are now or where we would have been at that time within the EU Do I have evidence of this, no, definitely not, am I asking you or anyone else to trust me, no definitely not, that's your job and I'm sure you will do it to the best of your ability.

One last point I will make on the models and the predications is that when there is a preponderance of experts saying the same/similar things then it is a brave person who comes out and says, BS you're all wrong, plus I wouldn't believe them either. We have little effect on the reality, we can moan, we can try to influence others but in the end it will come down to the fact that you, me, the vast majority on here will have one vote amongst millions to try and make the difference. We are all guessing/betting on a future outcome based on experts telling us one thing or another.

you will be greatly influenced by BJ being a liar, I will not, we are all different you see, I respect your view, it is the fact I think you and millions of others thinking like you are wrong, not 100% wrong, something's you and the experts are predicting will come true for sure but not enough to change my mind as to what is best for me and my family in the long run.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:28 pm

TVC15 wrote:Is that correct though ? Surely there are no official numbers as to how many models have been done in the last 3 years - I could have a go at building a model to show this and predict how many more will be built !!
There’s posters on both sides of the argument that will post links to every piece of positive/negative news on Brexit. I haven’t seen a plethora of positive Brexit economic forecasts linked on this board so they can’t exist! :D

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:32 pm

Greenmile wrote:I’ve upped my savings and have a small stockpile of non-perishable food. SENSIBLE MOVE

My maxim tends to be “hope for the best, but prepare for the worst”, though, so I suspect I’m in a minority. GOOD RULES

The Trumpism falls down for the poor, because things can always get worse for them, in this country at least.
YOU'RE GUESSING, YOU DON'T KNOW ANYMORE THAN I DO, NOT THAT I SAY I BELIEVE THIS BUT THERE IS SOME FORM OF LOGIC BEHIND IT, ONE FOR THE FUTURE
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:32 pm

It was a dark night last night... especially for Scots. Newsnight pretty much got to the crux of the problems.... they may tweek another agreement, but it is far from certain. Scotland can leave the UK but it certainly will not go down well in more than one EU country, he named Spain for obvious reasons. The message was there for all to see, Scotland would have to join the queue for admittance as a newly independent nation... euro and no special dispensations, even if they are accepted.

Parliament seem to be under the impression, that however they want to play it the EU will accommodate them. The message was clear, they are no longer guaranteed to keep delaying. Whoever is to blame, they have a good deal for them and feel it also serves Britain’s interest. He went pale when asked about another referendum and having to work with the same Parliament resesetting the debate all over again.

The overall message was clear, go for an election and then tell us definitively what you want to do. Labour immediately swept back with we want guarantees that NO DEAL won’t happen..... the German EU was more or less pointing out, that is not in Parliaments power to dictate.

I just do not understand Labour. They need to be out to really fund the sort of programme they are presenting... Nationalisation and special investment projects... and yet they are playing games, trying to undermine the Government instead of trying to push their agenda for change. They have snuggled too close to the Liberal Undemocratic position, now the Scots have a different agenda and labour risk falling between the stools in an election.

However it is the SNP who need to do some thinking. They could well get their dream, and be left high and dry... both out of the union and waiting to get back into The EU on a much poorer ticket thuan they have now. If they are not careful Scotland could be heading for another South Sea bubble type hit... the main reason they had no option but to join in Union in 1706.

Think when it sinks in the SNP could get a real kicking.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:35 pm

Greenmile wrote:This is mostly fair enough, but if I claim to have evidence of something and then use every excuse on the book not to show that evidence, I’d expect people to call my initial claim out as a lie.

I’m happy to accept that I’m over-reacting a little, but that’s just because I hate liars and I thought better of Paul before today, so I’m genuinely (as genuine as one can be on a forum like this) disappointed in him.

Edit to add - you’re right in that the models I have asked him to show us probably wouldn’t mean much to me (if they exist, which they don’t), but I would then rely on better-placed folk such as yourself to point out any flaws, or to agree wholeheartedly with what they say. That’s what normal folk do - they rely on others with more expertise than them.

It’s the debate itself that’s of value to me as I might learn something new.
You'll only ever learn something new, if you are prepared & willing to accept the opposing views may carry some merit, you'd have to soften the rigidness of your own views to enable further learning. Nobody really challenged PW on the economic model, TVC came the closest, sometimes its better to appreciate you are out of depth & back off, no embarrassment attached, I wasn't prepared to have a go no chance with somebody like that.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:36 pm

Think when it sinks in the SNP could get a real kicking.

One can only hope so, just IMO of course.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:36 pm

KateR wrote:Martin, perhaps you have misunderstood my points on these models posts.

I am not trying to say ignore the forecasts, it is essential I believe to read them and make conclusions, I also believe we will have a downturn when Brexit happens, I am not saying so called experts are wrong either, what I was trying to say is that they will not be 100% right and people can not say they have not been warned. I expect a whole slew of these experts to come out afterwards and say "I told you so", but it is similar to many mass expert predications, some people built shelters from the atomic fallout based on similar experts, vast majority did not. Hence my follow up question, you clearly believe it's going to be disastrous, I don't, therefore I have not changed my habit or my family's habits one iota, have you? From your continued posts and copy/paste from the expert predications I would have expected you to have actually changed something in your life to protect your family, have you or have you not?

Just be even further clear on this I expect the down turn, I don't think it will have a major effect on me, my family and I believe within a relatively short time frame things will improve and we will have the potential to be better than where we are now or where we would have been at that time within the EU Do I have evidence of this, no, definitely not, am I asking you or anyone else to trust me, no definitely not, that's your job and I'm sure you will do it to the best of your ability.

One last point I will make on the models and the predications is that when there is a preponderance of experts saying the same/similar things then it is a brave person who comes out and says, BS you're all wrong, plus I wouldn't believe them either. We have little effect on the reality, we can moan, we can try to influence others but in the end it will come down to the fact that you, me, the vast majority on here will have one vote amongst millions to try and make the difference. We are all guessing/betting on a future outcome based on experts telling us one thing or another.

you will be greatly influenced by BJ being a liar, I will not, we are all different you see, I respect your view, it is the fact I think you and millions of others thinking like you are wrong, not 100% wrong, something's you and the experts are predicting will come true for sure but not enough to change my mind as to what is best for me and my family in the long run.
I haven’t made any preparations because I think I probably have a big enough financial cushion to be ok. But this is about the country as a whole not just me and my family. Many people won’t be in the same position as me and will be hit hard and in my opinion for ten years or more. It may get better after that, but so far in the future it becomes difficult to tell what’s down to Brexit and what’s down to other economic factors. But let’s not forget we’re just coming off the back of ten years of austerity, so if we get another poor ten years then for some people that’s a significant chunk of anyone’s life in hard times. I just don’t understand why we would do that to ourselves.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:43 pm

martin_p wrote:I haven’t made any preparations because I think I probably have a big enough financial cushion to be ok. But this is about the country as a whole not just me and my family. Many people won’t be in the same position as me and will be hit hard and in my opinion for ten years or more. It may get better after that, but so far in the future it becomes difficult to tell what’s down to Brexit and what’s down to other economic factors. But let’s not forget we’re just coming off the back of ten years of austerity, so if we get another poor ten years then for some people that’s a significant chunk of anyone’s life in hard times. I just don’t understand why we would do that to ourselves.
It's simple, people do it because they think it will be better, we all for ever have looked to better things for ourselves but more so for our families, children grandchildren.

Austerity is a different animal, we were in the EU when that happened, it didn't help solve or improve anything, no one and I mean no one is hoping for austerity, I firmly believe that. I hope you are not saying or alluding to certain people or a Gov. that is driving Brexit in the hope we will have another round of that, therefore it is somewhat of a red herring for me. Surely we can all agree at least that we don't want austerity, we all want to be better of than we have been before, that would be a good starting premise to build from, it's just how we get there that we differ.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:49 pm

KateR wrote:YOU'RE GUESSING, YOU DON'T KNOW ANYMORE THAN I DO, NOT THAT I SAY I BELIEVE THIS BUT THERE IS SOME FORM OF LOGIC BEHIND IT, ONE FOR THE FUTURE
No need to shout :)

I’m not saying things will get worse for the poor (although I do believe that), just that they can.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:50 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:You'll only ever learn something new, if you are prepared & willing to accept the opposing views may carry some merit, you'd have to soften the rigidness of your own views to enable further learning. Nobody really challenged PW on the economic model, TVC came the closest, sometimes its better to appreciate you are out of depth & back off, no embarrassment attached, I wasn't prepared to have a go no chance with somebody like that.
Nobody has challenged Paul on his economic model, because he hasn’t shown it to us.

That’s because it doesn’t exist.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:56 pm

I’m not going to produce a model to evidence my view but I think we are in for a very difficult decade.
Brexit will definitely contribute to this but I think we are looking at a world downturn - because as global as the world should have become because of technology countries like America, China etc are only trying to look after no 1 - ie themselves....and as we have already seen in history when the big boys decide they want a fight it’s all the little kids who get hurt...
The underlying trends in many parts of Europe all point to similar xenophobic political and economic strategies emerging (some already have of course) - again in my view all pointing to unrest and instability.

If anyone wants me to send them a big pointy downward graph I’m happy to !

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:56 pm

Greenmile wrote:No need to shout :)

I’m not saying things will get worse for the poor (although I do believe that), just that they can.


sorry :) Was writing on your post and trying to differentiate your thoughts from my replies, failed miserably on the last line though, but think I've figured it for any future efforts. Isn't there some written law that says for every action there is an equal action in the opposite direction or something? Things can definitely get worse, but they could get better, one thing I do think of regarding both sides of the fence, in the main, remainers want to stay where they were, is it they are fat and happy, comfortable in there lives and don't want change, while leavers definitely want change and are willing to gamble to make things better even though they know/understand they will get worse for a while.

They seem to have more visionary thoughts than remainers or maybe they live in cloud cuckoo land, who knows :)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:04 pm

Greenmile wrote:Nobody has challenged Paul on his economic model, because he hasn’t shown it to us.

That’s because it doesn’t exist.
The condition was is that the EM needs to be shown first by whoever (I'm not volunteering) & then he'll show his EM.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by claret_in_exile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:04 pm

CombatClaret wrote:1) Parliament could have passed a bill saying 'We will have a referendum on X date, a year or two in the future. Then the UK and EU sit down to draft a bill knowing there will be a referendum. That the logical way to hold a referendum, the same as the Irish abortion one, a bill was drafted. People voted for it.

2) Again this is the problem with the blank cheque Brexit vote we had. Every leave option was lumped into one vote in Ref 1, but if all these options were presented in Ref 2 leavers would complain it was diluting their vote. There is no majority for any one type of Brexit.
Another great post. Wasn't aware that's how the Irish did it. It makes a lot of sense, though.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:19 pm

claret_in_exile wrote:Another great post. Wasn't aware that's how the Irish did it. It makes a lot of sense, though.
So the EU would spend on this, nay years thrashing out a plan for a deal, that no vote had asked them too instead of dealing with new real business, just in case the UK then voted to Leave. Would not happen.

The Irish are in a slightly different position to the UK. Ireland was a major recipient of EU finance, GB is funding a large chunk of that investment. Look how Eire kick up / have kicked up a fuss every time a new member is mused, because they know it is their pot of gold that is going to diminish.

The EU need the GB same as GB needs good relations with the EU for the long term. Nobody wants to throw the baby out with the bath water. That does not mean we should be ruled from Brussels. I don’t expect the Tories to suddenly go soft on the North, but I do see that once out Labour’s massive infrastructure and investment plans can only REALLY be an option once we are free of EU even playing field for all rules.

The sum of this is Labour do not want an election, because they need to be out for their great schemes to have wheels... they do not have the faith of their own convictions however, and so are diverting attention, trying to keep an EU who will water down most of what they are proposing. The Labour position is fantasyland and they know how easily the Tori’s will tear it apart... it wants the best of two different worlds, it is not an option.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:39 pm

TVC15 wrote:I’m not going to produce a model to evidence my view but I think we are in for a very difficult decade.
Brexit will definitely contribute to this but I think we are looking at a world downturn - because as global as the world should have become because of technology countries like America, China etc are only trying to look after no 1 - ie themselves....and as we have already seen in history when the big boys decide they want a fight it’s all the little kids who get hurt...
The underlying trends in many parts of Europe all point to similar xenophobic political and economic strategies emerging (some already have of course) - again in my view all pointing to unrest and instability.

If anyone wants me to send them a big pointy downward graph I’m happy to !
If we go back to the 30’s when there was a significant reduction in world trade through barriers erected, Britain still had overseas markets via empire. A downturn now would carry a greater threat, and certainly not a good time to be leaving a close trading block.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:43 pm

elwaclaret wrote:So the EU would spend on this, nay years thrashing out a plan for a deal, that no vote had asked them too instead of dealing with new real business, just in case the UK then voted to Leave. Would not happen.

The Irish are in a slightly different position to the UK. Ireland was a major recipient of EU finance, GB is funding a large chunk of that investment. Look how Eire kick up / have kicked up a fuss every time a new member is mused, because they know it is their pot of gold that is going to diminish.

The EU need the GB same as GB needs good relations with the EU for the long term. Nobody wants to throw the baby out with the bath water. That does not mean we should be ruled from Brussels. I don’t expect the Tories to suddenly go soft on the North, but I do see that once out Labour’s massive infrastructure and investment plans can only REALLY be an option once we are free of EU even playing field for all rules.

The sum of this is Labour do not want an election, because they need to be out for their great schemes to have wheels... they do not have the faith of their own convictions however, and so are diverting attention, trying to keep an EU who will water down most of what they are proposing. The Labour position is fantasyland and they know how easily the Tori’s will tear it apart... it wants the best of two different worlds, it is not an option.
What would the EU “water down” and which rules would they apply in order to achieve that?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:02 pm

No deal is back on the table, well done everyone.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:03 pm

AndrewJB wrote:What would the EU “water down” and which rules would they apply in order to achieve that?
Why do you think the EU countries buy so many shares in British infrastructure through quasi independent companies? Because real Nationalisation is not permitted, subsidies are centrally dictated... the EU is investing in....

All the things people point and shout about.... zero hours contracts, are agreed by the EU etc. If it is wrong in British politics, it is because the EU have sanctioned it within their rules. If we don’t have to answer to them, the Tories and Labour return to the weights and measures politics, one cocks up, the other gets a chance to rebalance until they go too far and so on...

When Callahan became treasurer, the country was in dire straights and penniless due largely to war reparations and large scale national investment... we ran out of money. That was the lever used to get us into the common market.... the justification for Thatcher’s destroying heavy industry. Then there was a much stronger argument for being with a much looser Europe than what we ended up with. Britain is a nation built on trade (and the evils it in the past that at the time meant, admittedly). Yet we seem scared of truly free trade... why? We should only be worried if we plan to compete with up and coming nations.... cheap and low wage economy. Why would we aim for that.... makes zero sense to. Scare mongery, nothing more.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:10 pm

Greenmile wrote:Still waiting for the economic model you claim to have Paul. Keep typing, but try to lie less - you might get a bit more respect if you manage it.
Greenmile, if you really are interested in the development of my series of posts - and the respective responses - which reference economic models, I recommend you take a look back to post 20280, or thereabouts, where jonty was making what could be considered by some "ageist" comments.

no need to bother if you just want to keep posting stuff that is wrong.

Your choice.

FYI: I don't tell lies, I've no need to tell lies. I'll leave it to you to consider why that is your response to someone who's opinion differs from your own.

Let's try and keep things a little "social."

That's it for me on this sub-topic. Thanks.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:32 pm

TVC15 wrote:Bit harsh - feels reading some of the recent posts he could have worded what he meant a bit better.
What I would say is that economic models created by experts might not be much better than those created by “amateurs”.....if you could put your trust in them then explain why 2 so called experts can produce 2 economic models which predict exactly the opposite to each other ?!!

Most economic models (if not all) will have large elements of bias - of course you will have some standard macro assumptions that everyone should use the same numbers but then you have a whole new set of assumptions that are basically down to the “expert” to build.

The problem is that a lot of the time the experts are told what the final answer needs to be by the person commissioning the report and you then build the model backwards to fit that answer and try and make it look as credible as you can.
Believe me this was exactly how it worked in the Bank - I often had to build 2 models - one with what I thought would happen in the next 3 to 5 years based on factual history / trends and very realistic other assumptions and then one where I had to get to the numbers I had been told to reach by the Board.
The reason I did that many times so I could very easily track the variance the year after because I knew mine was a lot more accurate !!
Thanks, TVC15. A great explanation of modelling and model risk. I'm encouraged, again, there are posters on here who do have knowledge and understanding of economic models - and what they are posting about. :)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:48 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Why do you think the EU countries buy so many shares in British infrastructure through quasi independent companies? Because real Nationalisation is not permitted, subsidies are centrally dictated... the EU is investing in....

All the things people point and shout about.... zero hours contracts, are agreed by the EU etc. If it is wrong in British politics, it is because the EU have sanctioned it within their rules. If we don’t have to answer to them, the Tories and Labour return to the weights and measures politics, one cocks up, the other gets a chance to rebalance until they go too far and so on...

When Callahan became treasurer, the country was in dire straights and penniless due largely to war reparations and large scale national investment... we ran out of money. That was the lever used to get us into the common market.... the justification for Thatcher’s destroying heavy industry. Then there was a much stronger argument for being with a much looser Europe than what we ended up with. Britain is a nation built on trade (and the evils it in the past that at the time meant, admittedly). Yet we seem scared of truly free trade... why? We should only be worried if we plan to compete with up and coming nations.... cheap and low wage economy. Why would we aim for that.... makes zero sense to. Scare mongery, nothing more.
Here’s a link that explains how the EU works with regard nationalisation and state aid: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour’s manifesto can be enacted while we’re still in the EU - perhaps with some tweaks here and there, but the EU won’t stand in the way of Britain becoming more like Germany is (for example).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:49 pm

KateR wrote:Any and all future predictions and economic models included are built on assumptions and have inherent built in risk regardless of what industry business or country, it's as you said it's a predication, no one and I mean no one get's them right. It's an attempt to show what will happen if certain things go right and also if they go wrong, you can build one for next week, next month and be potentially wrong. The point so many people on here fail to understand is that experts are often wrong, not just occasionally, you can predict market swings through what you believe are influencer's, but sometimes they just don't happen.

Go back and look at the head of the Bank of England's predictions since 2015, many times wrong, changed his mind continually, would any one care to say categorically he is not considered an expert? That is just one, some will be right some will be wrong in terms of better or worse, none of them as an economic model will be right.

Just for clarity I have built numerous economic models for business, in the $billions, involving different countries and client combined, I have built 30 year models for banks who wanted a model to confirm whether they would lend money to a country or not. I still don't consider myself an expert.
Thanks, KateR. You are another poster on here who has knowledge and understanding of economic models.

My views on why Mark Carney/BoE has been revising, updating and modifying BoE forecasts: we've moved from a pre-referendum period where it suited the Gov't to present Brexit as "very negative" and then we've gone through the past now nearly 3 1/2 years where things have developed, some positive and some negative. First thing: post-referendum and vote to leave there was no immediate economic crash, ok, so that immediate forecast was wrong, so modellers take another look at their models. Then: let's call it a lot of UK domestic "noise" around the leave vote - all that uncertainty puts a negative outlook on things. Plus, UK-EU negotiation don't prove as "easy" as hoped - itself, most probably linked to the domestic "noise." But, no immediate economic harm, so perhaps the modeller pushes out the negative to a later period. Then we have, the question of the assumption around the nature of leaving, "no deal" i.e. WTO or a transition agreement and, eventually, some stability with a FTA? So, the assumptions change again. And, alongside all of this is the stuff going on in the rest of the world: Trump/China trade war, or other instability? And, other areas of uncertainty and how long do these continue for.

When BJ announced his deal with EU I posted on here that the new Managing Director of IMF had "jumped for joy" (apparently, her words) on news that UK had a deal/wouldn't leave on no deal terms. IMF also updated their own economic forecast for UK. From memory they had UK GDP down 2% - if we are speaking in the same terms, I think that's around 25% of 2008/09 impact. I was surprised that IMF also went on to say that most of this 2% had already happened. (I make no claim, either way, for IMF model - except to note that back in 2016, IMF was among the "a vote leave is bad" predictions.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:55 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Thanks, TVC15. A great explanation of modelling and model risk. I'm encouraged, again, there are posters on here who do have knowledge and understanding of economic models - and what they are posting about. :)
It’s a debate I had too many times in my working life.
We used to have so called expertise departments who would provide us with overlay assumptions and the amount of times I had to go back to them and challenge the rubbish they were sending me was unbelievable. Looking back it was them simply protecting their own area rather than providing anything realistic.
Trying to piece together all this across a big organisation to produce a 3 or 5 year model was pretty complex - especially when you had in the back of your mind that many versions would be unacceptable. I did this for about 5 years - the process would start in July and finish in December.
All it really does is bring you to a conclusion that it’s all pretty much boll-ocks !!
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:02 pm

Has anyone on here worked out what Johnson and Cummings are planning?

They must know Labour won't go for an election. They won't allow a few extra days for the WAB to be scrutinised so they seem to have given up on getting it ratified.

Have they some clever devious plan which no one else has worked out yet?

Where do we go from here?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:03 pm

Johnson explains his deal in simple terms for those who are into musical theatre, supported by JRM and everyone's favourite cuddly pantomime character Mark Frankwah
https://twitter.com/i/status/1187673908020948993" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(I think we all need a little light relief on a Friday, after week like this)
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:06 pm

Mala591 wrote:Has anyone on here worked out what Johnson and Cummings are planning?

They must know Labour won't go for an election. They won't allow a few extra days for the WAB to be scrutinised so they seem to have given up on getting it ratified.

Have they some clever devious plan which no one else has worked out yet?

Where do we go from here?
I gave my forecast yesterday, my crystal ball is a little cloudy but I am sticking with it for now.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:07 pm

TVC15 wrote:It’s a debate I had too many times in my working life.
We used to have so called expertise departments who would provide us with overlay assumptions and the amount of times I had to go back to them and challenge the rubbish they were sending me was unbelievable. Looking back it was them simply protecting their own area rather than providing anything realistic.
Trying to piece together all this across a big organisation to produce a 3 or 5 year model was pretty complex - especially when you had in the back of your mind that many versions would be unacceptable. I did this for about 5 years - the process would start in July and finish in December.
All it really does is bring you to a conclusion that it’s all pretty much boll-ocks !!
I've got colleagues who produce 20 year forecasts with monthly granularity. I'm always asking them which client needs to know what X is in August-2036?
or even 2036 v 2035 or 2030? I'm always suggesting they spend more time on the strength of their assumptions than producing wonderful algorithms that produce "meaningless" accuracy for unimportant details.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:14 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Here’s a link that explains how the EU works with regard nationalisation and state aid: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour’s manifesto can be enacted while we’re still in the EU - perhaps with some tweaks here and there, but the EU won’t stand in the way of Britain becoming more like Germany is (for example).
I think we need to agree to disagree on this Andrew. The sort of spending Labour will need to implement is not in the EU’sinterest. It would be ten years of a net contributor becoming a dead weight, without the freedom of getting our increased international trade to finance it.

It was far from all Labours fault that Britain was on the point of going bust, as we entered the seventies, but it was a result of just such a plan as today’s Labour are putting forward that destroyed our economy. That time it was war reparations, this time EU payments...

If we want to invest in infrastructure, special measures for deprived areas, a comprehensive education system.... robbing Eton is not enough. We need to hold our own purse strings so we can see bottom lines. IMO.

Edit - also the German model does not stack, simply because they were a major contributor to our former crisis. The need to stop the Soviet expansion meant that GB and the USA threw money to set up their infastructure right up to the end of the Cold War.
Last edited by elwaclaret on Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:15 pm

Paul Waine wrote:I've got colleagues who produce 20 year forecasts with monthly granularity. I'm always asking them which client needs to know what X is in August-2036?
or even 2036 v 2035 or 2030? I'm always suggesting they spend more time on the strength of their assumptions than producing wonderful algorithms that produce "meaningless" accuracy for unimportant details.

they get paid to do things like that, who the hell cares what a client will think in 2036, it's meaningless to the people doing it, except some of them love doing, they love the colours and forecasts.

I struggle getting my monthly income/outlay within 2%!!

Tried showing it to some of the children as they are a big unknown factor in this monthly economic model, yea whatever is the usual response. Yet of course the young will have there time to come, they just don't realize it, I think I was in my late 30's early 40"s before I realized everything virtually my mother had predicted was true, but of course old people no nowt do they :)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:34 pm

I like this graph as it shows how things change, people change, experts change, next week could look seriously different though, like your MOT, it's only good for today :

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49 ... ting-story" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:07 pm

Paul Waine wrote:...FYI: I don't tell lies, I've no need to tell lies. I'll leave it to you to consider why that is your response to someone who's opinion differs from your own...
The absence (or otherwise) of the economic model you claim to have created isn’t a matter of option, Paul. It’s a matter of fact.

You know what you need to do to debunk my accusations that you are lying about it. If you do I will a) feel really stupid for pushing this point and b) apologise wholeheartedly and unreservedly to you.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:12 pm

KateR wrote:they get paid to do things like that, who the hell cares what a client will think in 2036, it's meaningless to the people doing it, except some of them love doing, they love the colours and forecasts.

I struggle getting my monthly income/outlay within 2%!!

Tried showing it to some of the children as they are a big unknown factor in this monthly economic model, yea whatever is the usual response. Yet of course the young will have there time to come, they just don't realize it, I think I was in my late 30's early 40"s before I realized everything virtually my mother had predicted was true, but of course old people no nowt do they :)
The forecasts were intended to tell clients today what X will be in 2036..... I think everyone knows that by 2036 everyone will have forgotten what was predicted 17 years earlier in any case. ;) and, it just will not matter.

Yes, I was telling a few at work last week, what they'd just "proved" my late Mother would have said, "see, I told you so!"

Old people, well we all hope to be one, some day. It is always better than any alternative. Pete Townshend and Roger Daltrey both agree that, now! ;)
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:15 pm

Greenmile wrote:The absence (or otherwise) of the economic model you claim to have created isn’t a matter of option, Paul. It’s a matter of fact.

You know what you need to do to debunk my accusations that you are lying about it. If you do I will a) feel really stupid for pushing this point and b) apologise wholeheartedly and unreservedly to you.

Objection M'lord, asked and answered - move on please.

GM as part of all this modeling discussion, we have had a numerous amount of angst on here regarding the economy now, and the future since 2016 leave result. One important but only one in terms of economics for a country ahs been in regard to the value of the GB Pound vs the Euro/US% etc. Is it a good or bad thing the pound falling, or is it immaterial in your opinion?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:27 pm

KateR wrote:Objection M'lord, asked and answered - move on please.

Not it hasn’t.
I don’t know whether you’ve noticed, but I’ve made no claim to a detailed understanding of economics. In my opinion, however, a fall in the pound is good for some and bad for others, but overall it is a bad thing for the UK.

This is where you tell me that I don’t understand economics (I agree), and therefore have no right to ask Paul to substantiate his claims (I disagree).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:34 pm

AndyClaret wrote:No deal is back on the table, well done everyone.
I have always wanted to leave with a deal. The new one is a compromise and has united the Tory party, which is a massive achievement for BJ. As was getting the WA reopened and the backstop gone.

It is obvious that labour don't want a GE anytime soon and that there is no chance of a second referendum as it would never get thro this HOC because Labour mps in leave seats would not dare. Labour does not have a mandate for one and the LD don't have a mandate for revoke. However the Tories do have one for this deal from the last GE and Labour has one for a soft brexit. However the latter is brino and I would rather not leave for now.

So democratically if the HOC can't agree a deal now there has to be a GE very soon. It is pretty clear that a deal based on the tories PD won't pass unless France keep no deal on the table with a very short extension.

This situation can't continue and labour in particular will be in massive trouble down the line if it continues to block a GE and leave the country in limbo.

As I see it there are 3 scenarios:-

1. The EU grant an extension until 31 jan 2020 on condition that this is the last one. This gives time for a GE.

2. The EU backs France and says we have got 2/3 weeks to ratify the new deal or that's it you cam revoke if you don't want the deal. Obviously this HOC daren't revoke. This option is not as bad as you might think because there is a deal that can be picked up straight after a no deal and whilst some of the ERG and Farage would go mad, the HOC would soon sign up.

3. Labour continue to block a GE until June 2022.

I favour 2 because it is obvious that option 1 will just end up with a further Benn bill and another pointless extension request. 3 is just a joke.

EDIT There is a 4th option. Pass the WA and amend the PD to include Labour's soft brexit as well and have a GE to decide is it the Tory is labour PD. At least we will have left. Maybe that us the best way ?
Last edited by summitclaret on Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:34 pm

Paul Waine wrote:The forecasts were intended to tell clients today what X will be in 2036..... I think everyone knows that by 2036 everyone will have forgotten what was predicted 17 years earlier in any case. ;) and, it just will not matter.

Yes, I was telling a few at work last week, what they'd just "proved" my late Mother would have said, "see, I told you so!"

Old people, well we all hope to be one, some day. It is always better than any alternative. Pete Townshend and Roger Daltrey both agree that, now! ;)
Heads to my tails... I look back to learn lessons... they are all there look at the build up to the late 70’s... and see Labour’s current path mirrored by both parties post war. It created the NHS and set us up for the next ten years... but cost too much so it could not be maintained, hence the Nationalised failures of the late 70’s. Then it was war reparations /defence against the SU. This time EU contributions...

Scotland wanted to flex their muscles over reached in South America to nip in before England and created the South Sea Bubble. This time they want out of the Union without any backing from Europe... two bubbles.

The numbers and faces change but the answers are all there. It is not for nothing Tebbit wanted people “to get on their bikes”.... Victorian values, a return to eat of be eaten, self reliance.

Despite all this I would not swap our political system for anything. We have centrist parties (on the whole) fighting for shades of centre. How many countries can truly claim that?

We need to protect our Parliament from interference, that is why I want out. Though I’ll admit I scratch my head why our own Parliament does not trust our Parliament to call the shots.... the only way Britain became Great is by being in front of the game, not part of the crowd.

Edit - and as I have said, That is not party political, either.. the NHS, our welfare state, Best and worst bits all created, this country, or Nation. We talk and on the whole respect, our common needs. We lead, we don’t follow and we do it because we all benefit from living in a country that has been first and longest players of this game, trade and modern democracy.

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