Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[claretonthecoast1882]

And if we import chickens from America what's that going to do to the farming industry, aside from decimate it?

Are chickens bred in this country going to be banned ?

[Spijed]

Are chickens bred in this country going to be banned ?

Do you think America are going to agree a trade deal where they just send a couple of truck loads every month?

[claretonthecoast1882]

Do you think America are going to agree a trade deal where they just send a couple of truck loads every month?

Ok. Cows and sheep too or just British chickens that will be illegal ?

[Jakubclaret]

My point is whether immigrant workers depress the wages for local UK workers which is slightly different (I'm assuming not many people voted Brexit because they felt that EU immigrants were getting a raw deal and wanted to help them). Although the low paid work may be filled by immigrant workers, does that mean that UK workers are in better roles with better salaries? (Assuming that the low unemployment rate means that they simply haven't lost their jobs which is obviously a large assumption.)

There's also the question whether geographically mobile people in the UK would have moved to those areas with a higher demand for workers and hence slowed the wage increase.

It seems obvious to think that workers coming from the EU will keep wages down but maybe that wouldn't be the case in the bigger picture. I'm happy to be convinced but for such a large issue there appears to be surprisingly little research.

For unskilled labour the minimum wages have increased & it’s in the pipeline the government are further committed to increase, due to brexit mainly (other factors as well) the zloty became higher with the pound falling & a greater number of the polish workforce returned back to Poland to take advantage of this, the vacuum as simply been replaced with a higher percentage of the UK workforce hence increasing the wages & maintaining the low unemployment rate. More incentives & a higher rate of pay have lured more people back to work before it was more of a case of the job vacancies being minimal & lousy pay, still poor & needs improving in my view but encouraging signs that things are getting better.

[Spijed]

Ok. Cows and sheep too or just British chickens that will be illegal ?

It was just one example where it might affect the farming industry in an adverse way.

[claretonthecoast1882]

It was just one example where it might affect the farming industry in an adverse way.

Well at least we have moved from will to might now.

[Lancasterclaret]

Well at least we have moved from will to might now.

I think to be fair, there isn't a "might" with this one.

UK farming needs subsidies to be competitive. It really is that simple.

I'm not sure how a trade deal with the US allows that to happen without significant concessions on other stuff, or at all

[claretonthecoast1882]

I think to be fair, there isn't a "might" with this one.

UK farming needs subsidies to be competitive. It really is that simple.

I'm not sure how a trade deal with the US allows that to happen without significant concessions on other stuff, or at all

You will always be able to get British chickens what ever the outcome is, same with eggs unless some are thinking they will be on the flight behind the chickens.

[Lancasterclaret]

You will always be able to get British chickens what ever the outcome is, same with eggs unless some are thinking they will be on the flight behind the chickens.

Yes, but at a competitive price?

Thats the problem

[claretonthecoast1882]

Yes, but at a competitive price?

Thats the problem

Just like you can now, depending on where you shop the price will differ, Waitrose will be dearer than Lidl. Yet nobody seems to bothered that some chickens are dearer than others at the moment.

[Lancasterclaret]

Just like you can now, depending on where you shop the price will differ, Waitrose will be dearer than Lidl. Yet nobody seems to bothered that some chickens are dearer than others at the moment.

I think you might be trivialising this a bit!

Depending on what the UK does, depending on what deal (if any) it has with the US, depending on how farming subsidies work from now on, will all factor in the availability and price of Uk Chickens.

One thing it will definitely do is change what it is now.

[Jakubclaret]

Just like you can now, depending on where you shop the price will differ, Waitrose will be dearer than Lidl. Yet nobody seems to bothered that some chickens are dearer than others at the moment.

It’s something that wasn’t keeping me awake at night
Any increase I should imagine will be minimal.

[TheFamilyCat]

We'll just subsidise British farmers ourselves with the £350m we won't have to send to the EU. After we've spent it on the NHS, of course.

[Lancasterclaret]

We'll just subsidise British farmers ourselves with the £350m we won't have to send to the EU. After we've spent it on the NHS, of course.

Nah, we'll just take it out of the foriegn aid budget.

[Lancasterclaret]

I listen to the radio a lot whilst I'm working.

Today has been a day free of adverts for "Get ready for Brexit on the 31st October"

That is going to have an effect on voters

[claretonthecoast1882]

I think you might be trivialising this a bit!

Depending on what the UK does, depending on what deal (if any) it has with the US, depending on how farming subsidies work from now on, will all factor in the availability and price of Uk Chickens.

One thing it will definitely do is change what it is now.

If trivialising is the opposite to thinking British chickens are going to vanish then I am guilty.

Will it just be chickens or all cattle as well, will New Zealand lamb vanish too ?

[Quickenthetempo]

We had a £7 billion pound rebate coming from the ECB.

But we don't anymore, cos of Johnson and his Conservative party needs saving deal.

Well played everyone.

Can yo explain a little bit more about the situation and why Boris is responsible?

[Lancasterclaret]

If trivialising is the opposite to thinking British chickens are going to vanish then I am guilty.

Will it just be chickens or all cattle as well, will New Zealand lamb vanish too ?

Why would NZ lamb vanish?

Its currently allowed into the UK as part of a quota system on lamb imports with the EU. I don't think the NZ lamb quota is actually met (they could sell more if they wanted to)

I think we've agreed to roll that one over (but again, both those statements are from memory so might not be accurate)

[Lancasterclaret]

Can yo explain a little bit more about the situation and why Boris is responsible?

I could, but a very quick google search would be far more helpful to your needs.

[aggi]

It isn’t if things go as I want - there are a thousand and one ways to agree a free trade agreement. I want us to be self sufficient, with low unemployment and with high wage employment. How we get there is for bigger brains than mine to decide.

Regarding the Boston issue, you don’t need to find research, you just need to go to Boston and talk to them, which I have done. They know the impact migration has had on their income, and working hours. It was their choice to vote leave due to it. We don’t need to try to analyse whether they were right, we couldn’t possibly comprehend all the variables affecting their choice.

Ultimately though a free trade agreement suggests no tariffs or other significant regulatory barriers to trade. If we have that with countries throughout the world then we are going to be getting in agriculture imports significantly cheaper than we are at the moment. I find it unlikely that enough people will buy the more expensive UK produced stuff to lead to self-sufficiency, low unemployment and high wage employment. Suggesting free trade deals as a solution to losing trade with the EU and then trying to ignore the further implications of them isn't very realistic.

I wasn't specifically thinking of Boston (although obviously it's difficult to get a full picture anecdotally), more that it seems to be an issue for voters throughout the UK but is it an issue in reality? If we want to try and improve people's lot post-Brexit then the issues that led to the Brexit vote really need to be understood on an evidence-based approach.

In reality I think we all know that there's a pretty good chance that those cheap EU immigrants working in agriculture will be replaced by cheap immigrants from other territories post-Brexit (probably on some kind of essential low-paid worker visa and with fewer employment rights) but is that really necessary, can the industry handle higher wages, is there the volume of available workers there, etc.

[Lancasterclaret]

Free Trade Agreements do not equal frictionless trade.

Something that isn't mentioned (for some reasons!)

[Lowbankclaret]

Lamb is an interesting one.

I bought a full lamb for £120, born and raised in Bacup. Delivered to my door jointed and chopped.

It led to a debate with a lady in Wales, she could not buy a full Welsh lamb for less than £200 as it all goes to France and it’s expensive in France. Then NZ Lamb is sent here.

A strange Carbon footprint for Lamb when it needs to travel very little.

On chickens, super markets which sell chickens at less than £3 sell them as a loss leader. I suspect even lower welfare ones from the US will be raised any cheaper.
It costs more than that to feed them.

You can also choose not to buy them, as I would.

[HunterST_BFC]

Brexit has LITERALLY had more dates than me this year.

[Lancasterclaret]

£120 for Welsh Lamb

https://www.farmandfork.co.uk/product/w ... -lamb-box/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Let your lady friend in Wales know

[If it be your will]

Ultimately though a free trade agreement suggests no tariffs or other significant regulatory barriers to trade. If we have that with countries throughout the world then we are going to be getting in agriculture imports significantly cheaper than we are at the moment. I find it unlikely that enough people will buy the more expensive UK produced stuff to lead to self-sufficiency, low unemployment and high wage employment. Suggesting free trade deals as a solution to losing trade with the EU and then trying to ignore the further implications of them isn't very realistic.

I wasn't specifically thinking of Boston (although obviously it's difficult to get a full picture anecdotally), more that it seems to be an issue for voters throughout the UK but is it an issue in reality? If we want to try and improve people's lot post-Brexit then the issues that led to the Brexit vote really need to be understood on an evidence-based approach.

In reality I think we all know that there's a pretty good chance that those cheap EU immigrants working in agriculture will be replaced by cheap immigrants from other territories post-Brexit (probably on some kind of essential low-paid worker visa and with fewer employment rights) but is that really necessary, can the industry handle higher wages, is there the volume of available workers there, etc.

It is reasonable to suppose we wouldn't need the same volume of workers. We don't know what the impact on wages would be without the pool of EU labour to draw on. If the effect was a substantial, then the cost of productivity enhancing machinery/robotics might be less than the new wages would be, and then fewer workers would be required for the same output. If the effect was minimal, then us leavers were wrong all along.

I'm not saying this is definitely right, because I have no evidence, but it is widely postulated that one of the reasons for the truly abysmal productivity growth in the last 15 years is because of the ready supply of cheap labour (yes, there are lots of other theories for our weak productivity growth). It has not been cost-effective to upgrade to latest technology. If wages ballooned without cheap EU labour, it would be. The problem we might have is finding the available credit to upgrade from commercial banks, which is where Labour's NIB plan comes in.

Either way, there would be an increased cost to employers overall. I suppose it's a question what sort of society we actually want 20 years from now - a highly automated one or one reliant on low wages. Both have issues if not done properly.

[If it be your will]

Yes, but at a competitive price?

Thats the problem

Are British chickens/eggs even subsidised now? I can't find a reference.

[Lowbankclaret]

£120 for Welsh Lamb

https://www.farmandfork.co.uk/product/w ... -lamb-box/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Let your lady friend in Wales know

That’s not a whole lamb but labelled as a whole lamb box.
We must have got 100 chops, plus there’s no liver, kidneys, heart.

It’s perhaps nearly a whole lamb box for those that don’t know what constitutes a whole lamb. To be fair most of the country will not know what they would get from a whole lamb, which is a pity.

[Jakubclaret]

That’s not a whole lamb but labelled as a whole lamb box.
We must have got 100 chops, plus there’s no liver, kidneys, heart.

It’s perhaps nearly a whole lamb box for those that don’t know what constitutes a whole lamb. To be fair most of the country will not know what they would get from a whole lamb, which is a pity.

Remember it's discounted £30 at that price should be £150 for a limited time, & it's free delivery on orders over £100, still a damn sight cheaper than the quoted £200 whichever way you look at it.

[Lowbankclaret]

Remember it's discounted £30 at that price should be £150 for a limited time, & it's free delivery on orders over £100, still a damn sight cheaper than the quoted £200 whichever way you look at it.

My point is it’s not a full lamb!

[CrosspoolClarets]

Surely the whole point about Brexit is that we get to choose whether we want free trade deals, quotas with import limits, or tariffs on chickens to protect our farmers (or subsidies direct to farmers).

TTIP would have done the same, more or less, as a UK US free trade deal, but the difference is we get to decide on the quid pro quo’s.

In truth, after 3 years I still don’t understand how anybody reasonably well educated can have voted not to have this freedom. Being a follower not a leader (or an employee not an employer) is one thing, but can we genuinely trust those who we follow in the EU to make the decisions on our behalf? If we cannot fully trust them, and we cannot remove them, what then?

[martin_p]

You’ve got to wonder whether Johnson really wants an election given he’d be pretty much guaranteed one on 9th December but continues to insist on pursuing 12th.

[tiger76]

You’ve got to wonder whether Johnson really wants an election given he’d be pretty much guaranteed one on 9th December but continues to insist on pursuing 12th.

Ideally Johnson would like to have his cake and eat it,he wants an election,why wouldn't he given the poll numbers,but he'd also like to get the WA through,the latter's never gonna happen in this parliament,so he might as well take a calcuated risk and hope to emerge with a majority.

Of course a GE has no guarantees for any party,2017 should be a salutary lesson in this respect,as a layman i don''t really see the fuss between the 9/12 Dec,if the Conservatives are seen to be backing away from an election at this late stage it won't look good to the watching public,the bill tomorrow only requires a majority of one,so it should pass whatever Labour do,although there isn't unanimity in the SNP ranks,but enough MP'S should back it.

Now whether yet another GE will provide any answers is in the hands of the voters,i'm sure Brenda from Bristol will be delighted at the prospect.

[martin_p]

Ideally Johnson would like to have his cake and eat it,he wants an election,why wouldn't he given the poll numbers,but he'd also like to get the WA through,the latter's never gonna happen in this parliament,so he might as well take a calcuated risk and hope to emerge with a majority.

Of course a GE has no guarantees for any party,2017 should be a salutary lesson in this respect,as a layman i don''t really see the fuss between the 9/12 Dec,if the Conservatives are seen to be backing away from an election at this late stage it won't look good to the watching public,the bill tomorrow only requires a majority of one,so it should pass whatever Labour do,although there isn't unanimity in the SNP ranks,but enough MP'S should back it.

Now whether yet another GE will provide any answers is in the hands of the voters,i'm sure Brenda from Bristol will be delighted at the prospect.

The difference between the 9th and 12th is that the latter potentially gives Johnson time to bring his WAB back before Parliament. He’s said today that he’s not going to do that but of course his behaviour as PM so far means that no one trusts him. The second potential issue that might put the Lib Dem’s off is that lots of students will have gone home for Xmas as it the last full week for most universities. Their registered to vote at their university addresses which may mean many can’t vote. That is less likely to be the case earlier in the week.

If Johnson is genuine about not bringing the WAB back I don’t see why he wouldn’t just go 9th, guaranteeing support from the Lib Dems and SNP, unless of course he deliberately wants to disenfranchise a section of society he knows he gets less votes from or he doesn’t really want an election.

[Bin Ont Turf]

Need to be finding a Guy Fawkes this year who can actually deliver.

[tiger76]

The difference between the 9th and 12th is that the latter potentially gives Johnson time to bring his WAB back before Parliament. He’s said today that he’s not going to do that but of course his behaviour as PM so far means that no one trusts him. The second potential issue that might put the Lib Dem’s off is that lots of students will have gone home for Xmas as it the last full week for most universities. Their registered to vote at their university addresses which may mean many can’t vote. That is less likely to be the case earlier in the week.

If Johnson is genuine about not bringing the WAB back I don’t see why he wouldn’t just go 9th, guaranteeing support from the Lib Dems and SNP, unless of course he deliberately wants to disenfranchise a section of society he knows he gets less votes from or he doesn’t really want an election.

Tomorrow will explain a lot about Johnson's motives,Labour aren't going to vote for an election,so if he really wants to go to the people before santa arrives then he'll take up the offer,it's by no means certain that if he dithers he'll be offered a 2nd chance by Blackford/Swinson,the extension is only until 31st Jan,which if you take out the Xmas period doesn't leave that long to sort either the WA ias it stands or amended,or an alternative course of action depending on the parliamentary arithmetic.

[dsr]

[double post]

[Jakubclaret]

The difference between the 9th and 12th is that the latter potentially gives Johnson time to bring his WAB back before Parliament. He’s said today that he’s not going to do that but of course his behaviour as PM so far means that no one trusts him. The second potential issue that might put the Lib Dem’s off is that lots of students will have gone home for Xmas as it the last full week for most universities. Their registered to vote at their university addresses which may mean many can’t vote. That is less likely to be the case earlier in the week.

If Johnson is genuine about not bringing the WAB back I don’t see why he wouldn’t just go 9th, guaranteeing support from the Lib Dems and SNP, unless of course he deliberately wants to disenfranchise a section of society he knows he gets less votes from or he doesn’t really want an election.

With the EU agreeing to the extension & no immediate challenge to the leadership he retains the core support that’s enough for now, wouldn’t be any great sense of urgency to do any different, I think he’ll sit tight & try to finalise the departure & after this, it will inevitably give rise to cross domestic party squabbling & then at a later point the need for a GE will emerge. Today signified the allowance of time & it’s now decisive in order for him to completely satisfy what he’s promised without reneging, the refusal to put his signature asking for the extension should indicate he won’t go back on his word. Speaks volumes when you don’t personally sign something in my honest view.

[dsr]

Students can vote either at home or at their student address. Or in local elections, at both addresses. Just because they have registered at university doesn't mean they have to deregister at home. This is because general elections are a moveable feast and no-one knows exactly when they will happen; as long as a student votes only once, it can be at either place.

If this is the sticking point for the Liberals, it is presumably because they want the student vote concentrated at university rather than spread out more evenly at home.

[Imploding Turtle]

Students can vote either at home or at their student address. Or in local elections, at both addresses. Just because they have registered at university doesn't mean they have to deregister at home. This is because general elections are a moveable feast and no-one knows exactly when they will happen; as long as a student votes only once, it can be at either place.

If this is the sticking point for the Liberals, it is presumably because they want the student vote concentrated at university rather than spread out more evenly at home.

Of course the reverse is also true, if it's a problem for Conservatives that the votes occur during term time then it's because they want their votes dissipated. But, hey, it's all about your team's narrative isn't it?

[Spijed]

So the Conservatives promised the NHS was off limits as part of any American trade deal did they?

That lie didn't last long.

According to C4 Dispatches everything is up for grabs.

[taio]

So the Conservatives promised the NHS was off limits as part of any American trade deal did they?

That lie didn't last long.

According to C4 Dispatches everything is up for grabs.

Having watched it last night how have you concluded everything is up for grabs?

[Burnley Ace]

Poultry World - really informative and helps you keep abreast of the latest concerns https://www.poultryworld.net/Meat/Artic ... t-471457E/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Eggs is a worry, chicken meat not so much as we import a lot from the Netherlands. A lot comes from Thailand and Brazil.

[Burnley Ace]

So the Conservatives promised the NHS was off limits as part of any American trade deal did they?

That lie didn't last long.

According to C4 Dispatches everything is up for grabs.

Why does the NHS have to be totally ringfenced? Specsavers do work for the NHS - Dr referred me and they phoned me up and I had an appointment the next Saturday. Really quick and convenient.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Why does the NHS have to be totally ringfenced? Specsavers do work for the NHS - Dr referred me and they phoned me up and I had an appointment the next Saturday. Really quick and convenient.

The NHS isn't totally ring fenced, hasn't been for a very long time either.
Private firms have been doing operations, treatments etc for ages on behalf of the NHS and no one's really been that bothered about that little fact.
There's a belief that the Tories are desperate to sell the NHS off, or stop it being free to use though and now suddenly people are concerned about private companies doing things for the NHS....

[Lancasterclaret]

The NHS isn't totally ring fenced, hasn't been for a very long time either.
Private firms have been doing operations, treatments etc for ages on behalf of the NHS and no one's really been that bothered about that little fact.
There's a belief that the Tories are desperate to sell the NHS off, or stop it being free to use though and now suddenly people are concerned about private companies doing things for the NHS....

I don't know whether I want to believe that the Tories would sell off the NHS.

But I know that there are people in the Tory Party who don't agree with it, and that wing of the party is currently in charge.

So I'm nervous, simply because the danger is there because of the current political situation.

[CrosspoolClarets]

So the Conservatives promised the NHS was off limits as part of any American trade deal did they?

That lie didn't last long.

According to C4 Dispatches everything is up for grabs.

This is a subject I know a lot about given that I advise various governments on drug expenditure.

I haven’t seen the programme and will try to watch it at some point when I get time. But it has long been the case that US drugs are facing losing their patents and they are lobbying for countries to extend them rather than making them vulnerable to cheaper generic alternatives or biosimilars.

The US also has the fact that they spend a fortune developing these drugs to save all our lives and then the US consumer pays far more (either directly or through taxes like the NHS) than other countries. The UK spends less than France or Germany due to the power of the NHS.

So, these talks are “business as usual”. Not some sudden shift to privatisation. The US tries to get countries to pay more, and, in a sense, though there are arguments both ways, they have a point.

[dsr]

So the Conservatives promised the NHS was off limits as part of any American trade deal did they?

That lie didn't last long.

According to C4 Dispatches everything is up for grabs.

The purpose of the NHS is to provide free healthcare to those who need it.

The nationality of the suppliers to the NHS is not an issue. It does not betray any principles if the doctors or nurses come from abroad. It does not betray any principles if the drugs or medical supplies come from abroad. And it does not betray any principles if the rent on the buildings is paid to owners abroad.

There are very valid questions about whether the service is most efficiently provided in that manner, or ought to be done more (or less) in house. But that's not a question of principle, it's a question of practice. The crucial point is that the NHS is for the benefit of the patients, not for the benefit of the staff and suppliers.

[martin_p]

Students can vote either at home or at their student address. Or in local elections, at both addresses. Just because they have registered at university doesn't mean they have to deregister at home. This is because general elections are a moveable feast and no-one knows exactly when they will happen; as long as a student votes only once, it can be at either place.

If this is the sticking point for the Liberals, it is presumably because they want the student vote concentrated at university rather than spread out more evenly at home.

So why won’t Johnson just go for 9th December then when he knows it has enough support to pass?

[martin_p]

The purpose of the NHS is to provide free healthcare to those who need it.

The nationality of the suppliers to the NHS is not an issue. It does not betray any principles if the doctors or nurses come from abroad. It does not betray any principles if the drugs or medical supplies come from abroad. And it does not betray any principles if the rent on the buildings is paid to owners abroad.

There are very valid questions about whether the service is most efficiently provided in that manner, or ought to be done more (or less) in house. But that's not a question of principle, it's a question of practice. The crucial point is that the NHS is for the benefit of the patients, not for the benefit of the staff and suppliers.

So you’d agree that suppliers shouldn’t be making massive profits on that basis then? In fact ideally the staff should work for the NHS not a third party and the NHS should own the buildings, etc.

[dsr]

So you’d agree that suppliers shouldn’t be making massive profits on that basis then? In fact ideally the staff should work for the NHS not a third party and the NHS should own the buildings, etc.

Yes. Gordon Brown's public-private partnership deals were outrageous, and they haven't been fully ditched. And locums etc. should be for emergencies, not routine.