If it be your will wrote:It is reasonable to suppose we wouldn't need the same volume of workers. We don't know what the impact on wages would be without the pool of EU labour to draw on. If the effect was a substantial, then the cost of productivity enhancing machinery/robotics might be less than the new wages would be, and then fewer workers would be required for the same output. If the effect was minimal, then us leavers were wrong all along.
I'm not saying this is definitely right, because I have no evidence, but it is widely postulated that one of the reasons for the truly abysmal productivity growth in the last 15 years is because of the ready supply of cheap labour (yes, there are lots of other theories for our weak productivity growth). It has not been cost-effective to upgrade to latest technology. If wages ballooned without cheap EU labour, it would be. The problem we might have is finding the available credit to upgrade from commercial banks, which is where Labour's NIB plan comes in.
Either way, there would be an increased cost to employers overall. I suppose it's a question what sort of society we actually want 20 years from now - a highly automated one or one reliant on low wages. Both have issues if not done properly.
I missed this in all the excitement.
It is possible that Brexit could provide the impetus to update, upgrade, etc. Wouldn't that just shift the issue from foreigners causing the problem to robots causing it.
Also, thinking about it, I'm not really on board with the underlying premise. With our minimum wage the labour in the UK is far more expensive than many other, more productive, territories. Surely the incentive has already been there to upgrade compared to other countries with a much cheaper labour pool?
Where your view is interesting is that obviously most people are foreseeing a Britain with deregulation, more capitalist, etc post-Brexit but you're hoping it will be the impetus for a swing in the other direction. Who knows what we'll end up with.