Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
Locked
Colburn_Claret
Posts: 8143
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:30 pm
Been Liked: 3082 times
Has Liked: 5059 times
Location: Catterick N.Yorks

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:05 pm

Greenmile wrote:Sorry - I must have misread or misremembered your post earlier




Which people? Sounds like magical thinking to me. Im just not having this "if you believe hard enough, everything will be ok" nonsense - this is real life, not Peter Pan.
I'm not asking people to have blind faith, just if it is happening, roll your sleeves up and get on with it. Sitting on your backside and crying about leaving the EU is not going to help anyone.
I'm looking forward to it, and I understand that a lot of people aren't, but we've all had to face set backs in our lives at some point. Wether it's redundancy, illness, recessions, you have to get on with it or give up. The remainers on here are so negative, they sound like they've given up already, and we haven't even got there yet.
The rhetoric used mimics the EU spokesmen. They hand out forecasts of doom that are frankly ridiculous. Things might be harder for some than others, but no one's bloody dying, life still goes on, the Clarets will still be in the Premier League. Make the most of it, wether you wanted it or not.
This user liked this post: BennyD

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3552
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 656 times
Has Liked: 2899 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Burnley Ace » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:20 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:1, I'm quoting YOU, actually using the definition of "evidence" YOU provided! They're YOUR words.

You cannot provide EVIDENCE from an event that has no happened yet

TICK TOCK
Oh Bless Ringo my little friend you’ve been wriggling so much you don’t whether your coming or going:-). I’ve been asking you to find a definition of Evidence since Tuesday and you haven’t been able to find that helps:-(

I refer you back to page 13 #642 and page 14 #660. I know it’s hard for you and to be fair you are valiantly fighting your corner but it’s a bit futile. I even tried to break it down into little bite size pieces to try to help you understand page 15 #750 but to no avail.

Do you really think there is no evidence that the sun will rise tomorrow? Don’t rush to answer, give it a bit of thought and then explain why there is no evidence to support that belief.

I’m not going to Tick Tock you because I don’t want you to feel under pressure, ok? It’s not a competition, in your own time.

Paul Waine
Posts: 9905
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2350 times
Has Liked: 3181 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:38 pm

I've seen one or two comments about economic forecasts on this thread. Some may find this piece in The Times business commentary section - by line, Alastair Osborne - interesting:

Rates retreat
So much for those 5.5 per cent interest rates. Weren’t they the thing for no-deal Brexit: ideal too when the ports are gridlocked and Chris Grayling’s floating about on his fantasy ferries?
Mark Carney must have forgotten all about that scaremongering — even if the Bank of England guv’nor is fed up explaining that putting up rates seven times was just worst-case scenario stuff, not a forecast.
Still, it was obviously baloney, as the latest from the Bank underlines: a 9-0 vote to hold rates at 0.75 per cent, a retreat from its multiple rate rise plans and a savaging of November’s 2019 growth forecasts from 1.7 per cent to 1.2 per cent.
A doveish response to no-deal is still the way to bet, underlined by the government’s “Project After” economy-boosting plans, disclosed by the Financial Times. Mr Carney is involved in that, but wouldn’t be drawn on the Bank’s likely response to no-deal. Wisely, too — given his record on forward guidance.

Paul Waine
Posts: 9905
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2350 times
Has Liked: 3181 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:47 pm

and, for those who were wondering why Nissan have withdrawn plans to build the X-Trail in Sunderland, it may be that Jaguar Land Rover's £3.4 billion loss throws some light on the demand for diesel engine road vehicles.

The Times headline: Jaguar stutters to £3.4bn loss after demand stalls Financial problems blamed on diesel woes and China slowdown

CombatClaret
Posts: 4388
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:09 pm
Been Liked: 1826 times
Has Liked: 930 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:41 pm

Paul Waine wrote:and, for those who were wondering why Nissan have withdrawn plans to build the X-Trail in Sunderland, it may be that Jaguar Land Rover's £3.4 billion loss throws some light on the demand for diesel engine road vehicles.

The Times headline: Jaguar stutters to £3.4bn loss after demand stalls Financial problems blamed on diesel woes and China slowdown
and for those of you wondering why Nissan is moving production from Sunderland to Japan.

Independent Headline: EU and Japan sign historic free trade deal after rush to agree terms before Brexit

So yes, China & Diesel are big issues to both companies, doesn't change the fact we've just made ourselves a far less attractive country to do automotive business in.

Paul Waine
Posts: 9905
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2350 times
Has Liked: 3181 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:05 pm

CombatClaret wrote:and for those of you wondering why Nissan is moving production from Sunderland to Japan.

Independent Headline: EU and Japan sign historic free trade deal after rush to agree terms before Brexit

So yes, China & Diesel are big issues to both companies, doesn't change the fact we've just made ourselves a far less attractive country to do automotive business in.
Hi Combat, for factual accuracy:

1) Nissan aren't moving the production of the X-Trail, they are only choosing not to start producing it in Sunderland;
2) The X-Trail manufactured in Japan has petrol engine, only;
3) The EU Japan trade agreement, according to reports I've read, state that reduction in tariffs will take place over many years (see EDIT, below), it's far from an immediate change;
4) fall in demand for diesel engine road vehicles is across all Europe - thus we could also conclude that all of Europe is now a much less attractive region to manufacture dervs.

5) Uncertainty is a big issue for business, but the uncertainty of the future trading relationship, tariffs or no tariff, is a small thing compared to the big question: will there be sufficient demand to buy the vehicles that may be produced at the price(s) that are required to make the investment in manufacturing worthwhile?

Out of interest, why would EU and Japan be in a "rush to agree terms before Brexit?" according to Independent headline? Both EU and Japan will still be there after brexit.

EDIT: Details (and there are an enormous amount of details) can be read here: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2 ... t/tradedoc.." onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

Motor vehicles (passenger cars) had tariff of 10%, from 1-Feb-2019 this tariff will be reduced in equal instalments over 8 years, so that by Feb-2027 the tariff will be zero. (Other goods/food items have different starting tariffs and reductions, according to the trade agreement schedules (annex 2-A-2) will take place over periods extending to 16 years.

As I'm sure a Government minister might have said: "I'm only now coming to understand how much detail is required in a trade agreement...." (Or, "who knew....").

BTW - don't read this last bit as me saying that I'm personally surprised. I've got some prior experience with EU Directives and similar Regulatory documents.
Last edited by Paul Waine on Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3322 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:19 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Kudos for admitting I'm right.

Marty, Burnley Ace, aggi, claret and jew, and LeuvenClaret.

You should listen to this poster.

Stop assuming that predictions and forecasts are evidence. They're not. They're supposition, presupposition, presumption, premise, belief, expectation, conjecture, speculation, surmise, guess, theory, hypothesis, postulation, conclusion, deduction, inference, thought, suspicion, assumptions, projections, scenarios given varying criteria, predictions, assumptions and forecasts based on past evidence.

Nobody has ever left the EU in the past.

You cannot provide EVIDENCE from an event that has not happened.

Have a great weekend ladies
I wouldn’t start wa-nking yourself off in glee quite yet. As I said it’s purely semantics you are debating.
The real debate is why you think it will have a positive impact on the country and providing some rationale as to why....there has been plenty of rationale provided as to why it might have a negative impact and part of that is that many companies have already taken action and publically stated that the reason for their actions are down to Brexit and what they interpret Brexit will mean to them. Just because something has not happened yet does not mean people cannot take action beforehand.

I can’t recall one report of a company boss who has created jobs and put that down to what they think will be the impact of Brexit. I wonder why that is ?

aggi
Posts: 8847
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2122 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:30 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:
Have a great weekend ladies
I'm not really going to bother with the rest of the post. My definition of evidence comes from a science background and differs from yours but we both know they'll never meet.

I'm curious about how you signed off, any reason for that?

Do you think we're all women, that would be quite a coincidence on a male dominated board.

Is it meant to be derogatory? "Ha, women aren't clever enough to debate with Ringo".

Is being called a woman just an insult?

Any explanation?
This user liked this post: Greenmile

Paul Waine
Posts: 9905
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2350 times
Has Liked: 3181 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:03 pm

TVC15 wrote:
I can’t recall one report of a company boss who has created jobs and put that down to what they think will be the impact of Brexit. I wonder why that is ?
Just this last bit, TVC. I'm sure we've heard of a few of the ports saying that they have/are adding staff in prep for Brexit, even if it's just the additional paper work.

I'd also expect that there are a large number of firms that advise on exports between trading areas that will be looking to add staff. I'd also expect them to be doing it quietly, without wanting any adverse publicity.

Generally, though, uncertainty will, and always should, result in caution and not over-committing until each firm has the certainty that they require.

Spiral
Posts: 5009
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:37 am
Been Liked: 2522 times
Has Liked: 335 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spiral » Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:12 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Stop assuming that predictions and forecasts are evidence. They're not. They're supposition, presupposition, presumption, premise, belief, expectation, conjecture, speculation, surmise, guess, theory, hypothesis, postulation, conclusion, deduction, inference, thought, suspicion, assumptions, projections, scenarios given varying criteria, predictions, assumptions and forecasts based on past evidence.

Nobody has ever left the EU in the past.
Nobody landed on the moon prior to 1969, either, but then you apply enough maths in the right way and bingo.

Loving the idea of The Touched One going on Collins English dictionary website and looking up synonyms for "prediction" to sound like a clever c.unt, doing a ctrl+c, ctrl+v job and not realising that 'guess' and 'conclusion' and 'scenarios given varying criteria' are different things. Dunning-Kruger-Ringo effect is leaking out onto the messageboard again.

martin_p
Posts: 10379
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:40 pm
Been Liked: 3767 times
Has Liked: 696 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:16 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Just this last bit, TVC. I'm sure we've heard of a few of the ports saying that they have/are adding staff in prep for Brexit, even if it's just the additional paper work.

I'd also expect that there are a large number of firms that advise on exports between trading areas that will be looking to add staff. I'd also expect them to be doing it quietly, without wanting any adverse publicity.
Yes, but that’s like claiming the plague wasn’t necessarily a bad thing because the undertakers did very well out of it.
These 4 users liked this post: TVC15 nil_desperandum Burnley Ace Greenmile

aggi
Posts: 8847
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2122 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:27 am

Paul Waine wrote:Just this last bit, TVC. I'm sure we've heard of a few of the ports saying that they have/are adding staff in prep for Brexit, even if it's just the additional paper work.

I'd also expect that there are a large number of firms that advise on exports between trading areas that will be looking to add staff. I'd also expect them to be doing it quietly, without wanting any adverse publicity.

Generally, though, uncertainty will, and always should, result in caution and not over-committing until each firm has the certainty that they require.
We both know that isn't a long term benefit though.

Either the process will become streamlined enough to not require the extra staff or the business will go somewhere where those extra regulations aren't an issue.
This user liked this post: Paul Waine

HieronymousBoschHobs
Posts: 423
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:26 pm
Been Liked: 140 times
Has Liked: 58 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:36 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:I'm not asking people to have blind faith, just if it is happening, roll your sleeves up and get on with it. Sitting on your backside and crying about leaving the EU is not going to help anyone.
I'm looking forward to it, and I understand that a lot of people aren't, but we've all had to face set backs in our lives at some point. Wether it's redundancy, illness, recessions, you have to get on with it or give up. The remainers on here are so negative, they sound like they've given up already, and we haven't even got there yet.
The rhetoric used mimics the EU spokesmen. They hand out forecasts of doom that are frankly ridiculous. Things might be harder for some than others, but no one's bloody dying, life still goes on, the Clarets will still be in the Premier League. Make the most of it, wether you wanted it or not.
The problem is that people who voted remain (or even those who voted leave) did not have a good life to begin with: they were already struggling, already feeling that they had been required to pull up their bootstraps, already had to accept their standard of life must decline because 'that's the way of things'. It's not negativity about Brexit, but negativity about Brexit happening when people are already struggling in this country. People with no recourse but to seek state benefits, single mothers with kids who are already in a bad way maybe : what will they do if it all goes tits up?

LeuvenClaret
Posts: 108
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:32 pm
Been Liked: 18 times
Has Liked: 118 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by LeuvenClaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:37 am

Ringo I don’t understand why you keep using the word evidance when you should be using proof.

No one can prove what will happen when we leave the EU but both sides can provide evidance to predict what will happen.

Masham Ale
Posts: 325
Joined: Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:48 pm
Been Liked: 100 times
Has Liked: 294 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Masham Ale » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:29 am

Paul Waine wrote:and, for those who were wondering why Nissan have withdrawn plans to build the X-Trail in Sunderland, it may be that Jaguar Land Rover's £3.4 billion loss throws some light on the demand for diesel engine road vehicles.

The Times headline: Jaguar stutters to £3.4bn loss after demand stalls Financial problems blamed on diesel woes and China slowdown
JLR's quarterly result has an exceptional non-cash GBP3.1bn pre-tax exceptional charge accounted in it:
China is a problem for JLR as sales slow there industry-wide
Tata Motors' Jaguar Land Rover Automotive has booked a GBP273m loss for the third quarter of its fiscal year. The automaker said the results mainly reflected lower sales in China and higher depreciation and amortisation of investment expenses.
Retails of 144,602 vehicles compared with 154,447 units a year ago. Revenues were GBP6.2bn versus GBP6.3bn.
JLR said unit sales dropped "primarily as a result of continued challenging market conditions in China, offset partially by "encouraging growth" in North America (where it set sales records in January) and the UK. Sales in Europe were up slightly, despite an 8% drop in the overall market.
JLR added: "The third quarter was also impacted by one-off factors including costs related to planned reduction in inventories, warranty reserve adjustments and currency and commodity revaluation.
"The automotive industry is facing significant market, technological, and regulatory headwinds. At the same time, investment in new models, electrification and other technologies remains high. Given the muted demand scenario and the associated impact on the financials, Jaguar Land Rover has concluded that the carrying value of capitalised investments should be adjusted down, resulting in a non-cash GBP3.1bn pre-tax exceptional charge and an overall pre-tax loss of GBP3.4bn for the quarter."
On China it said: "We continue to work closely with Chinese retailers to respond to current market conditions with a 'pull' based approach to vehicle sales."

I don't pretend to understand accounting practices of large companies, particularly Indian ones, but I'm guessing it's a good to get all your bad news out at once and start the next financial year on a new lower level playing field. China & diesel and insufficient margins in the other markets are causing the losses, not Brexit.
This user liked this post: Paul Waine

Lord Beamish
Posts: 5001
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:00 pm
Been Liked: 3435 times
Has Liked: 2881 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lord Beamish » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:56 am

I really don’t know why any of you are bothering to debate with Wrongo. It’s about as productive as a Reiki Handjob.
This user liked this post: LeuvenClaret

Colburn_Claret
Posts: 8143
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:30 pm
Been Liked: 3082 times
Has Liked: 5059 times
Location: Catterick N.Yorks

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:01 am

HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:The problem is that people who voted remain (or even those who voted leave) did not have a good life to begin with: they were already struggling, already feeling that they had been required to pull up their bootstraps, already had to accept their standard of life must decline because 'that's the way of things'. It's not negativity about Brexit, but negativity about Brexit happening when people are already struggling in this country. People with no recourse but to seek state benefits, single mothers with kids who are already in a bad way maybe : what will they do if it all goes tits up?
Exactly the same as if it doesn't go tits up. Life is hard for people on benefits, but there's no reason why Brexit is going to impact on them. In fact people on benefits are probably the least likely group to feel a difference.
The question of people on benefits, low income is a completely different one from Brexit and requires another thread, but I'd reiterate that if life's hard, the solution is to roll your sleeves up and get on with it. It's a philosophy more than a policy, but it's held me and mine in good stead all our lives.
This user liked this post: Paul Waine

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:01 am

Greenmile wrote:That's a kind and generous offer.

You could start by explaining, with a bit of detail (there may be follow up questions) what the plan is, exactly. ie how will we leave? what's the answer to the Irish Border question? and perhaps most importantly, how and why will Brexit make us all better off? (and try not to just say "less immigrants" if you can help it - besides aything else, if Brexit decreases overall immigration to the UK at all, it will only be because the UK becomes a less desirable place to move to)

You've been asked variations of these questions a few times on this thread alone (from memory), and I've yet to see you give a straight answer.
I’ve already answered the question I didn’t mention Ireland, reunification would solve lots of problems more than it would add, its time to let go, maybe I’ve got a weird idea with how questions & answers go on, what usually happens is - a question or questions get asked & then a answer or answers get answered, not the same question or variations amounting to, maybe you like asking same or similar questions over & over, in the hope 1 day the answer or answers you desire are eventually given that way we could agree, it would eliminate the repetitive questioning.
https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/opinio ... 9-Dec2018/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Paul Waine
Posts: 9905
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2350 times
Has Liked: 3181 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:30 am

martin_p wrote:Yes, but that’s like claiming the plague wasn’t necessarily a bad thing because the undertakers did very well out of it.
aggi wrote: We both know that isn't a long term benefit though.

Either the process will become streamlined enough to not require the extra staff or the business will go somewhere where those extra regulations aren't an issue.
Hi Guys, I was just responding to TVC who didn't appear to know that there are some new jobs being created by Brexit - and, based on national statistics, an enormous number of new jobs over all being created.

Martin, you may have that right, but is that respectful of the undertakers - and anyone else who is aiming to deal with issues arising in a changing world?

Aggi, I'm sure you and I both understand that there are no "permanent jobs" - whether it is new jobs in "logistics and trade facilitation" or Nissan, JLR and all the other diesel engine motor vehicles manufacturers, or retailers losing out to online shopping. And...... we could continue this list for ever. Some of these jobs may go elsewhere because of Brexit, some will definitely go because the world is moving on. How do taxi drivers feel about uber? How will the uber drivers feel when the autonomous (driver less) motor vehicles arrive? (How does the postman and fixed line telcos feel about the internet, email, mobiles etc)?

Paul Waine
Posts: 9905
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2350 times
Has Liked: 3181 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:43 am

Masham Ale wrote: I don't pretend to understand accounting practices of large companies, particularly Indian ones, but I'm guessing it's a good to get all your bad news out at once and start the next financial year on a new lower level playing field. China & diesel and insufficient margins in the other markets are causing the losses, not Brexit.
Hi Masham A, JLR are reporting under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), Tata (parent company) will do the same, I'm pretty sure - though I haven't pulled up their accounts to check. My expectation is that Tata is listed on stock exchanges outside India and so will be required to report under IFRS. I think they also have the option to report under IFRS in India, also. It's 3 years since I last needed to look at Indian accounting standards and they were still wavering between adopting IFRS or staying a little longer on their own Indian standards (over 100 countries now use IFRS). The most important difference is fair value measurement, i.e. report the value when you produce the accounts, not a historic value when the money was spent. Essentially, that's what JLR are doing, reporting that they'd invested a lot of money in the past on diesel engine manufacturing, but now writing it down because they don't expect to sell as many derv cars in the future and so will not recover the value of their investment.

Apologies for a little technical background on a saturday morning.

Amex stadium this evening and 3 points will make my day.

UTC
This user liked this post: Masham Ale

Greenmile
Posts: 3168
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:50 pm
Been Liked: 1081 times
Has Liked: 4263 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:13 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:I’ve already answered the question I didn’t mention Ireland, reunification would solve lots of problems more than it would add, its time to let go, maybe I’ve got a weird idea with how questions & answers go on, what usually happens is - a question or questions get asked & then a answer or answers get answered, not the same question or variations amounting to, maybe you like asking same or similar questions over & over, in the hope 1 day the answer or answers you desire are eventually given that way we could agree, it would eliminate the repetitive questioning.
https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/opinio ... 9-Dec2018/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
You keep saying the questions have already been answered. Perhaps you could tell people where because I’ve looked and can’t find these answers you’ve already supposedly given.

A link to the relevant thread and the post number will do.

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3322 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:30 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi Guys, I was just responding to TVC who didn't appear to know that there are some new jobs being created by Brexit - and, based on national statistics, an enormous number of new jobs over all being created.
?
To be honest Paul I was not really counting jobs that are created as a result of chaos.
I am not really a believer of the term a “job is a job”. Our employment figures for many years have become a joke as they are massaged and new definitions created simply to make the numbers look good.

I am talking about jobs that are created because they create wealth and prosperity themselves. A job that is created for a short term basis to deal with chaos or inefficiency will be in the case of your example no doubt be zero hours, minimum pay and will probably also lead to increased prices and hassle for domestic and commercial customers.

If they don’t solve the Irish border issue then we may be creating more jobs in the British Army - that’s hardly a positive impact of Brexit
This user liked this post: Paul Waine

randomclaret2
Posts: 6904
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:04 pm
Been Liked: 2758 times
Has Liked: 4325 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by randomclaret2 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:41 pm

"I am not really a believer of the term a “job is a job”. Our employment figures for many years have become a joke as they are massaged and new definitions created simply to make the numbers look good."
Whilst we've been in the EU ? ...surely not ?

Paul Waine
Posts: 9905
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2350 times
Has Liked: 3181 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:45 pm

Interesting listening to R4 this morning.(A little after 11, if anyone wants to listen on catch up). I missed the first bit, so I'm not sure who was commenting, possibly/probably a politician who was involved at the time. Gist was the Good Friday Agreement is an international agreement between Republic of Ireland and UK. It should not be drawn into the Brexit situation, it is not based on the premise that Ireland and UK both remain in the EU. The speaker referenced previous Irish prime ministers in support of this view.

His conclusion - if I understood correctly, having missed the first bit - was that the backstop can work, but only if it is time limited.

Paul Waine
Posts: 9905
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2350 times
Has Liked: 3181 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:49 pm

TVC15 wrote:To be honest Paul I was not really counting jobs that are created as a result of chaos.
I am not really a believer of the term a “job is a job”. Our employment figures for many years have become a joke as they are massaged and new definitions created simply to make the numbers look good.

I am talking about jobs that are created because they create wealth and prosperity themselves. A job that is created for a short term basis to deal with chaos or inefficiency will be in the case of your example no doubt be zero hours, minimum pay and will probably also lead to increased prices and hassle for domestic and commercial customers.

If they don’t solve the Irish border issue then we may be creating more jobs in the British Army - that’s hardly a positive impact of Brexit
Hi TVC, I liked your reply because I can see we both "get it."

I'm not sure the legal advisors and other technical advisors on import/export rules will be on "zero hours, minimum pay" - however much lawyers like to charge by the hour for the work they do.

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3322 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:01 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi TVC, I liked your reply because I can see we both "get it."

I'm not sure the legal advisors and other technical advisors on import/export rules will be on "zero hours, minimum pay" - however much lawyers like to charge by the hour for the work they do.
Aye you are probably correct !
Unfortunately lawyers hovering over the chaos like vultures sucking money out of the economy is probably worse than zero hours contract work.
Either way as said don’t see any of this as positive

BennyD
Posts: 3603
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:10 am
Been Liked: 1338 times
Has Liked: 757 times
Location: Nantwich

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BennyD » Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:05 pm

LeuvenClaret wrote:Ringo I don’t understand why you keep using the word evidance when you should be using proof.

No one can prove what will happen when we leave the EU but both sides can provide evidance to predict what will happen.
I get your point but whatever you use, it’s still a prediction. No matter what anyone says, we won’t know what’s going to happen until we step out into the fresh air. Then we’ll have evidence and proof of the short term, but not necessarily the long term.

Mala591
Posts: 1889
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:02 pm
Been Liked: 685 times
Has Liked: 429 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:24 pm

I still predict that the EU will be the first to blink and allow us a unilateral three year time limit on the backstop. This would give us (including the 21 months implementation phase) FIVE YEARS to complete trade deal negotiations.

The backstop time limit would ensure we can't be trapped in the backstop situation indefinitely and would prevent France and Spain blackmailing us over Fishing/Gibraltar issues.

If we have no deal after five years then we leave on WTO trade rules.

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:47 pm

Greenmile wrote:You keep saying the questions have already been answered. Perhaps you could tell people where because I’ve looked and can’t find these answers you’ve already supposedly given.

A link to the relevant thread and the post number will do.
I'm not trawling thru the site if you cannot be bothered to remember, I know I've answered a variant of a similar question probably more than once, but I never mentioned Ireland to be honest I'm not sure if Ireland was mentioned then but on the other post it was so I've also answered that now, please remember this post because I know in 2 weeks you will be asking me a similar question about Ireland & forgot this 1, I'll screenshot it to avoid repetition.

Greenmile
Posts: 3168
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:50 pm
Been Liked: 1081 times
Has Liked: 4263 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:05 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:I'm not trawling thru the site if you cannot be bothered to remember, I know I've answered a variant of a similar question probably more than once...
I don’t believe you.

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:14 pm

Greenmile wrote:I don’t believe you.
There’s nothing I can do about that, I’ve just had a look at some of your other posts to other posters “sorry - I must have misread or misremembered your post earlier” that’s colburn claret quoting you & he seems to be repeating what he has already said to you as well as me, so you do have form for forgetfulness. You are not on your own other posters also suffer memory retention only a couple more.

Rileybobs
Posts: 16892
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:37 pm
Been Liked: 6963 times
Has Liked: 1483 times
Location: Leeds

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Rileybobs » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:25 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:There’s nothing I can do about that, I’ve just had a look at some of your other posts to other posters “sorry - I must have misread or misremembered your post earlier” that’s colburn claret quoting you & he seems to be repeating what he has already said to you as well as me, so you do have form for forgetfulness. You are not on your own other posters also suffer memory retention only a couple more.
Instead of looking through someone else’s posts you could have just looked through your own and found the one where you answer the questions you claim to have done.
This user liked this post: Greenmile

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:29 pm

Rileybobs wrote:Instead of looking through someone else’s posts you could have just looked through your own and found the one where you answer the questions you claim to have done.
It didn’t take long it was at top of my tablet page when scrolling, I’ve contributed on various brexit orientated threads in the last 12 months so I’m not spending hrs researching to prove a petty point when people can’t remember what’s been stated.

summitclaret
Posts: 3922
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:39 pm
Been Liked: 834 times
Has Liked: 1331 times
Location: burnley

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:46 pm

Mala591 wrote:I still predict that the EU will be the first to blink and allow us a unilateral three year time limit on the backstop. This would give us (including the 21 months implementation phase) FIVE YEARS to complete trade deal negotiations.

The backstop time limit would ensure we can't be trapped in the backstop situation indefinitely and would prevent France and Spain blackmailing us over Fishing/Gibraltar issues.

If we have no deal after five years then we leave on WTO trade rules.
We have to be fully detached from the EU by may 2022 or things could get very messy at the GE. It doesn't need ant longer to sort a deal if people want one.

Devils_Advocate
Posts: 12370
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:43 pm
Been Liked: 5210 times
Has Liked: 921 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:14 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:It didn’t take long it was at top of my tablet page when scrolling, I’ve contributed on various brexit orientated threads in the last 12 months so I’m not spending hrs researching to prove a petty point when people can’t remember what’s been stated.
I remember Jakub making some really valid points around Polish ducks and the positive effects Brexit will have in this area

Greenmile
Posts: 3168
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:50 pm
Been Liked: 1081 times
Has Liked: 4263 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:07 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:There’s nothing I can do about that, I’ve just had a look at some of your other posts to other posters “sorry - I must have misread or misremembered your post earlier” that’s colburn claret quoting you & he seems to be repeating what he has already said to you as well as me, so you do have form for forgetfulness. You are not on your own other posters also suffer memory retention only a couple more.
Here's what Colburn said originally :-
Colburn_Claret wrote:...When I was younger and had a mortgage, and kids to provide for, earning as much as I could was a priority. It didn't matter how crap the job was, how bad the hours were, or how much the pay was. I did what was necessary.
When you're older and the mortgage is paid, the kids have moved out, money doesn't matter as much. It's all about quality of life, money doesn't matter anywhere near as much...
...and this is what I misremembered it as :-
Greenmile wrote:... You’ve retired and paid off your mortgage.
I wasn't a million miles off, was I? That's not like forgetting you explaining how Brexit is going to work entirely.

Incidentally, it took me less than 5 mins to find the above two quotes with the search funtion. I've spent about 15 mins looking through yours (I'm bored and waiting for the match to start), but couldn't find any sign of this explanation you claim to have given.

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:20 pm

Greenmile wrote:Here's what Colburn said originally :-



...and this is what I misremembered it as :-



I wasn't a million miles off, was I? That's not like forgetting you explaining how Brexit is going to work entirely.

Incidentally, it took me less than 5 mins to find the above two quotes with the search funtion. I've spent about 15 mins looking through yours (I'm bored and waiting for the match to start), but couldn't find any sign of this explanation you claim to have given.
Ditto, I’m also waiting for the match to start, I will answer your question again later I’d appreciate if you didn’t ask the question again or at least try to remember that I’ve answered this time round & try to absorb it even if you don’t agree with the answer. Thanks let’s hope we get the 3, squeaky bum time after the Cardiff winner
This user liked this post: Greenmile

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:02 pm

Greenmile wrote:That's a kind and generous offer.

You could start by explaining, with a bit of detail (there may be follow up questions) what the plan is, exactly. ie how will we leave? what's the answer to the Irish Border question? and perhaps most importantly, how and why will Brexit make us all better off? (and try not to just say "less immigrants" if you can help it - besides aything else, if Brexit decreases overall immigration to the UK at all, it will only be because the UK becomes a less desirable place to move to)

You've been asked variations of these questions a few times on this thread alone (from memory), and I've yet to see you give a straight answer.
I'll be a happy chappy if immigrants find Britain a less desirable place to come to, it will open more jobs to British citizens and young people without qualifications who can only do unskilled labour. When we leave the EU, we will be free to make trade agreements with countries such as China, Russia. Trump has offered a trade deal as we are close countries, the only countries who object to Brexit are European countries who will be missing out on our contributions. I think we should just leave and stop trying to half leave. Irish unification would make Brexit a lot smoother, just give it back, people have been saying this since the 70s.

Spijed
Posts: 17125
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:33 pm
Been Liked: 2895 times
Has Liked: 1294 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spijed » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:12 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Trump has offered a trade deal as we are close countries
But he has also said protectionism is a good thing.

A good trade deal and protectionism cannot mix!
This user liked this post: LeuvenClaret

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3552
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 656 times
Has Liked: 2899 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Burnley Ace » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:39 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:I'll be a happy chappy if immigrants find Britain a less desirable place to come to, it will open more jobs to British citizens and young people without qualifications who can only do unskilled labour. When we leave the EU, we will be free to make trade agreements with countries such as China, Russia. Trump has offered a trade deal as we are close countries, the only countries who object to Brexit are European countries who will be missing out on our contributions. I think we should just leave and stop trying to half leave. Irish unification would make Brexit a lot smoother, just give it back, people have been saying this since the 70s.
There’s 800,000 job vacancies in the U.K., As part of the deals with China and India etc they will be wanting more visas and access to the UK and why do you think Trump wants to negotiate with the UK rather than 28 countries in the EU? Do you think they will be wanting us to relax our food regulations and NHS purchasing rules?

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:42 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:There’s 800,000 job vacancies in the U.K., As part of the deals with China and India etc they will be wanting more visas and access to the UK and why do you think Trump wants to negotiate with the UK rather than 28 countries in the EU? Do you think they will be wanting us to relax our food regulations and NHS purchasing rules?
800,000 could be 8 billion, it's a pointless figure, if you haven't got the skills to fill these positions or a transport infrastructure to enable, HS2 first phase won't be ready for awhile. Our relatively stringent regulations should be a cakewalk if money flows.

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3552
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 656 times
Has Liked: 2899 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Burnley Ace » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:55 pm

I think a good proportion of them are at the “lower” end of the skills market. How is leaving the EU going to increase our skill base (and productivity)? The US have already stated they expect us to lower our regulations, they aren’t going to improve theirs!!

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:07 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:I think a good proportion of them are at the “lower” end of the skills market. How is leaving the EU going to increase our skill base (and productivity)? The US have already stated they expect us to lower our regulations, they aren’t going to improve theirs!!
I've said all this before it's in keeping with a reoccurring theme i guess, the vacancies are not being filled "lower" end due to our own people not being incentivised enough & cannot compete with 4 or 5 people within the same household income wise all contributing towards bills, I should imagine rent the highest, business will be booming whatever the regulations if money flows, regulation is often overlooked & circumvented, we've had E cigarette chargers blowing up in people's hands & mobile phone chargers overheating & burning people's houses down but still surpassed safety regs, nobody cares if odd people die if the money is rolling in.

martin_p
Posts: 10379
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:40 pm
Been Liked: 3767 times
Has Liked: 696 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:15 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:I've said all this before it's in keeping with a reoccurring theme i guess, the vacancies are not being filled "lower" end due to our own people not being incentivised enough & cannot compete with 4 or 5 people within the same household income wise all contributing towards bills, I should imagine rent the highest, business will be booming whatever the regulations if money flows, regulation is often overlooked & circumvented, we've had E cigarette chargers blowing up in people's hands & mobile phone chargers overheating & burning people's houses down but still surpassed safety regs, nobody cares if odd people die if the money is rolling in.
What a wonderful vision of the future. It’s no wonder people voted for it!

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:18 pm

martin_p wrote:What a wonderful vision of the future. It’s no wonder people voted for it!
That model example regarding regulations was under the EU watch, it can only improve.

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3552
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 656 times
Has Liked: 2899 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Burnley Ace » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:22 pm

Young people living at home with their parents can’t compete with young EU workers who are making their own way in a foreign country?

I was thinking more GM crops in food, growth hormones in beef and chicken, lower animal welfare standards, use of previously banned pesticides, not just letting dodgy electrics in!!!

You do realise that overall immigration levels aren’t going to dramatically fall, it’s more that the country of origin is more likely to be subcontinent not Europe

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:29 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Young people living at home with their parents can’t compete with young EU workers who are making their own way in a foreign country?

I was thinking more GM crops in food, growth hormones in beef and chicken, lower animal welfare standards, use of previously banned pesticides, not just letting dodgy electrics in!!!

You do realise that overall immigration levels aren’t going to dramatically fall, it’s more that the country of origin is more likely to be subcontinent not Europe
No I should imagine want the youth of today want to be self sufficient & independently think I know a few who do, Regulations aren't a massive issue it's often overlooked & circumvented until there's a spike & the media get wind, watchdog ect then there's a few apologies, recalls in the UK & safety modifications, in the UK & China, then it carries on again, it's not a biggie for brexit.

Burnley Ace
Posts: 3552
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm
Been Liked: 656 times
Has Liked: 2899 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Burnley Ace » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:40 pm

How do you think Brexit is going to make them self sufficient and independent?


You are just writing absolute nonsense about regulations. You seem quite content to lower all our health and safety standards, in both food and products, to get a trade deal?

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9473
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1185 times
Has Liked: 779 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:52 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:How do you think Brexit is going to make them self sufficient and independent?


You are just writing absolute nonsense about regulations. You seem quite content to lower all our health and safety standards, in both food and products, to get a trade deal?
The only way our youth will have a future is if we dramatically lower immigration that's the painful truth, people need to take responsibility for what they eat & what they use, manufacturers of food & products will still need to maintain standards it makes sense for them to, nobody wants to kill the customer as you are left with no customers or very few. People eat when they are hungry or from any old takeaway a greasy kebab hits the spot after the pub, the food will still need to edible & fit for consumption with or without any EU directive. If the argument for remaining within the EU is some sort of fear of dodgy products or sporadic food poisoning its nothing new from what we've been experiencing for years.

martin_p
Posts: 10379
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:40 pm
Been Liked: 3767 times
Has Liked: 696 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:55 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:The only way our youth will have a future is if we dramatically lower immigration that's the painful truth
But how will it help. If there’s 800,000 job vacancies, presumably many low skilled, that are not being taken up, how will more job vacancies make a difference?

Locked