Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
Locked
Damo
Posts: 4505
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:04 pm
Been Liked: 1777 times
Has Liked: 2761 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:45 pm

Tall Paul wrote:Is that a genuine question? Don't you know what consolidating means?
They are closing their plant in Turkey. Not part of the EU but part of the CU.
They can also export cars to the EU without paying a tariff.
That's three points of access to the single market. Only one of them is in a country that is currently part of the EU

Damo
Posts: 4505
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:04 pm
Been Liked: 1777 times
Has Liked: 2761 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:47 pm

martin_p wrote:Because from 29th March Honda cars made in the U.K. will have an export tariff to the EU. Cars made in Japan won’t.
But cars exported from their plant in Turkey wont. Yet that will also close

elwaclaret
Posts: 8929
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:57 am
Been Liked: 1986 times
Has Liked: 2877 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:50 pm

Large companies have been relocating long before Brexit. We have been paying the likes of Honda to keep the jobs at taxpayers expense since John Cotton's were making the parts. If we wanted a car industry first you need to thank Thatcher and then Blair for destroying ours.

martin_p
Posts: 10368
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:40 pm
Been Liked: 3764 times
Has Liked: 696 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:53 pm

Damo wrote:They are closing their plant in Turkey. Not part of the EU but part of the CU.
They can also export cars to the EU without paying a tariff.
That's three points of access to the single market. Only one of them is in a country that is currently part of the EU
A customs union doesn’t mean tariff free.

Paul Waine
Posts: 9845
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2344 times
Has Liked: 3164 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:58 pm

Caballo wrote:I'm calling bullsh1t and I don't care who you claim your source is, Honda are reducing their global output, have spare capacity at home and have just signed a trade deal with the EU in which automotive products and parts are tariff free. Brexit uncertainty will be a factor but to claim it's the main one is stuff and nonsense.
Hi Caballo, we looked at the EU-Japan trade deal when Nissan made their decision not to implement X-Trail manufacturing in UK. It will take 8 years, or more before the EU-Japan tariffs for cars fall to zero. Tariff cuts are phased over 8 years - from memory.

I'm guessing closing Swindon in 2022 is where the cost advantages swing in favour of manufacturing in Japan, including utilising any spare capacity they currently have there.

Damo
Posts: 4505
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:04 pm
Been Liked: 1777 times
Has Liked: 2761 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:03 pm

martin_p wrote:A customs union doesn’t mean tariff free.
In Turkeys case, it does for goods

CrosspoolClarets
Posts: 5232
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:00 pm
Been Liked: 1623 times
Has Liked: 397 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:03 pm

Most of us know that Brexit is a factor in this (I’ll rephrase - this Government’s enactment of Brexit is a factor in this).

Most media are now saying that Brexit is number three in the list of causes, one and two being the EU Japan trade deal and Dieselgate. That is why I think this would have happened anyway, BUT....

.....there is no excusing the government in general and Hammond / Clark in particular sitting on their hands with Brexit mitigation. Who knows what a 5 year 10% cut in Corp tax would have done? My guess is, quite a lot. That’s a message I would have sent in 2016.
This user liked this post: Rick_Muller

Paul Waine
Posts: 9845
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2344 times
Has Liked: 3164 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:10 pm

Mala591 wrote:Thought for the day:

I think it would be wise for spreadsheet Phil (Hammond) to slash Corporation Tax down to 10% for several years to stimulate global investment in the UK economy.
Hi Mala, I've argued a few times that we should scrap corporation tax - that would put a spoke in all the "tax dodging" tech companies plans, wouldn't it. A truly level playing field for all businesses. Collect taxes on numbers employed (and gig economy workers, if you like) and income tax for employees - and cut out all the tax free allowances.

I'd also introduce a "subscriber charge" of let's say £50 per year for all the (large) tech sites that use personal data to sell us all ads. That should balance things out a little - and, maybe some of them will stop claiming they have XX million users in a country with only so many adults.

CombatClaret
Posts: 4381
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:09 pm
Been Liked: 1825 times
Has Liked: 929 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:12 pm

Caballo wrote:Brexit uncertainty will be a factor but to claim it's the main one is stuff and nonsense.
I don't think anyone on here has, Diesel emission, Chinese slowdown etc are large part of the equation. But even the staunchest Leavers are admitting Brexit is a factor and thus we've made this country less attractive to big business at a time when we should be doing the opposite.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:16 pm

Big cuts in corporation tax are not a panacea for Brexit related issues lads.

Paul Waine
Posts: 9845
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:28 pm
Been Liked: 2344 times
Has Liked: 3164 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:17 pm

martin_p wrote:Because from 29th March Honda cars made in the U.K. will have an export tariff to the EU. Cars made in Japan won’t.
Hi martin, not 29th March 2019. Whatever the tariffs on UK cars exported to EU - we wait and see - the EU-Japan deal phases tariff reductions in over a number of years (pretty standard for a lot of TAs). Cars will take 8 years, I think it is, before they are at zero.

As I've said above, maybe the breakeven point for Honda is somewhere around 2022.

CombatClaret
Posts: 4381
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:09 pm
Been Liked: 1825 times
Has Liked: 929 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:20 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote: .....there is no excusing the government in general and Hammond / Clark in particular sitting on their hands with Brexit mitigation. Who knows what a 5 year 10% cut in Corp tax would have done? My guess is, quite a lot. That’s a message I would have sent in 2016.
Imagine Remaining in the EU and offering better tax intensives. You might see more companies moving here instead of now trying to convince them not to leave.
I wonder how many of those 3500 jobs lost in 85% White British Swindon had already been 'stolen' by EU migrants.
Last edited by CombatClaret on Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Rick_Muller
Posts: 6093
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:53 am
Been Liked: 2620 times
Has Liked: 6419 times
Location: -90.000000, 0.000000

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Rick_Muller » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:20 pm

Caballo wrote:I'm calling bullsh1t and I don't care who you claim your source is, Honda are reducing their global output, have spare capacity at home and have just signed a trade deal with the EU in which automotive products and parts are tariff free. Brexit uncertainty will be a factor but to claim it's the main one is stuff and nonsense.
Call as much bullsh1t as you want mate. Most regular posters on here know I’m from Swindon, and that I grew up there. A close friend I grew up with and went to school with in the 80’s is currently part of the senior management team at Honda and his opinion is that Brexit played a major part in the decision process that still hasn’t formally been announced. There is no doubt the closure would not have happened a soon as 2022 without Brexit. There is acknowledgement that the industry was changing and that may have affected the plant in the future, but the closure by 2022 is mainly down to Brexit.
This user liked this post: CombatClaret

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9443
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1180 times
Has Liked: 778 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:23 pm

CombatClaret wrote:I don't think anyone on here has, Diesel emission, Chinese slowdown etc are large part of the equation. But even the staunchest Leavers are admitting Brexit is a factor and thus we've made this country less attractive to big business at a time when we should be doing the opposite.
I don’t think that’s the case at, the decision was 2 & half years ago & previous to that, they’d been making people redundant & cost cutting so from that, you can’t hold out forever when the business is in the s**t, but of course everything from now onwards down to a small corner shop putting the staff on short time we know where the blame will go, had things been hunky dory with Honda prior, fair enough.
This user liked this post: elwaclaret

Caballo
Posts: 1128
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:31 am
Been Liked: 420 times
Has Liked: 431 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Caballo » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:37 pm

CombatClaret wrote:I don't think anyone on here has.
Rick did. Hence my response to his quote in my original post.

CombatClaret
Posts: 4381
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:09 pm
Been Liked: 1825 times
Has Liked: 929 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:17 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:I don’t think that’s the case at, the decision was 2 & half years ago & previous to that, they’d been making people redundant & cost cutting so from that, you can’t hold out forever when the business is in the s**t, but of course everything from now onwards down to a small corner shop putting the staff on short time we know where the blame will go, had things been hunky dory with Honda prior, fair enough.
Many of the worlds biggest companies have expanded and contracted to suit market forces and trends. There's a big difference through between a tightening it belt and leaving a country as a key base of operations.
Some commentators saying a move might have always happened but that Brexit forced their hand shows how anti-business it is. To quote Boris Johnson Brexit Cheerleader "F8ck Business", it seems business heard loud and clear.
This user liked this post: Rick_Muller

Jakubclaret
Posts: 9443
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 1180 times
Has Liked: 778 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:28 pm

CombatClaret wrote:Many of the worlds biggest companies have expanded and contracted to suit market forces and trends. There's a big difference through between a tightening it belt and leaving a country as a key base of operations.
Some commentators saying a move might have always happened but that Brexit forced their hand shows how anti-business it is. To quote Boris Johnson Brexit Cheerleader "F8ck Business", it seems business heard loud and clear.
As you’ve quoted I’ll politely reply I wasn’t going to post again tonight not regarding politics anyhow, (poll in place) I’ll keep it brief I believe there is a propaganda campaign against (always been) brexit at the moment which is now being intensified in order to push through a people’s vote a last throw of the dice if you will, maybe I’m being over sceptical we will see in the coming days. Night.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:31 pm

or alternatively the amount of evidence that its a bad idea is actually getting to the stage that politicians might notice it and realise that backing it could be pretty bad for their health?

Pstotto
Posts: 6224
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:11 pm
Been Liked: 1024 times
Has Liked: 763 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Pstotto » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:34 pm

Satellite England. let's hope the workers take on the plant and produce some English cars.

CombatClaret
Posts: 4381
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:09 pm
Been Liked: 1825 times
Has Liked: 929 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:30 pm

Pstotto wrote:Satellite England. let's hope the workers take on the plant and produce some English cars.
Pie in the sky.

A Mini part's incredible journey shows how Brexit will hit the UK car industry
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... britain-eu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

CrosspoolClarets
Posts: 5232
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:00 pm
Been Liked: 1623 times
Has Liked: 397 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:42 pm

CombatClaret wrote:Imagine Remaining in the EU and offering better tax intensives. You might see more companies moving here instead of now trying to convince them not to leave.
I wonder how many of those 3500 jobs lost in 85% White British Swindon had already been 'stolen' by EU migrants.
Well, it’s actually 10,000 jobs in the wider economy, sorry to cast a black shadow over it.

If shipping to the EU attracts a 10% tariff on cars (like Japan pay now if it comes from Japan) then a 10% reduction in Corp Tax will go a long way to balancing that out, without having to invest in a new plant. Add in some currency depreciation and Honda would have made more money by, say, exporting to the US from the U.K. But as I said, I think Honda would have gone anyway.

Anyway, Honda is 1 of the United Kingdom’s 1.9 million limited companies. A big employer admittedly. But it is a small chunk of our labour force. People voted for Brexit for all kinds of reasons, right or wrong, and one of those reasons would be that if we did it right firms will still invest in the UK (obviously we need a free trade deal but we don’t necessarily want a customs union). Yes, being in the EU may attract more investment but people decided on balance that the EU is not where they want to be, and most haven’t changed their mind. I export services to the EU, Brexit will harm me financially, but I still think it is the right thing to do. I think the country will gain financially in the medium term and I think there are many more upsides than that (this long overdue parliamentary carnage being one plus).

Pstotto
Posts: 6224
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:11 pm
Been Liked: 1024 times
Has Liked: 763 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Pstotto » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:30 pm

Combat Claret, the mini is a German car not an English car, so it's made all over.

CombatClaret
Posts: 4381
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:09 pm
Been Liked: 1825 times
Has Liked: 929 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:34 pm

Pstotto wrote:Combat Claret, the mini is a German car not an English car, so it's made all over.
So many layers to this not sure if it's a wonderfully crafted joke or a the dumbest statement ever. For anyone else but Pstotto I would have made my mind up already.

Pstotto
Posts: 6224
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:11 pm
Been Liked: 1024 times
Has Liked: 763 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Pstotto » Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:40 pm

The Mini is a BMW.

If the global market is next then a car with no computers and no sat nav. for the developing world will reduce parts, if we nationalize and rationalize the car industry post-Brexit.

We've got to stop Carmaggedon and the technopocalypse or risk Third World dark ages soon. If we ban cars with computers and sat.navs in the UK, it stuffs the Germans,Japs and French for now and we might have a better global product for export. The third world is being encouraged here, already by our double agent politicians.

WW3 started in 1945 you know and we still haven't woken up from our perceived victory slumber. It's the war of the car.

One neutron bomb on the UK and it will be driver-less cars.

AndyClaret
Posts: 1349
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:08 pm
Been Liked: 217 times
Has Liked: 543 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:55 am

martin_p wrote:Because from 29th March Honda cars made in the U.K. will have an export tariff to the EU. Cars made in Japan won’t.
Simply not true, it will be 8 years before cars are tariff free.

AndyClaret
Posts: 1349
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:08 pm
Been Liked: 217 times
Has Liked: 543 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:23 am

https://www.autocar.co.uk/opinion/indus ... on-factory" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

quoonbeatz
Posts: 4491
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:03 am
Been Liked: 2562 times
Has Liked: 757 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by quoonbeatz » Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:39 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:If 2 people are drawing opposing OPINIONS from a particular event taking place. Only time will tell as to who drew the correct conclusion and therefore has the right to point to that past event and say "that was EVIDENCE" for my opinion.

While events are still happening people will have different OPINIONS. We haven't left the EU yet. As I've been saying all along you cannot provide EVIDENCE from or for an event that has not happened yet. You can have an opinion.

And as Burnley Ace says in the above post, you can differing OPINIONS on the same event. Only time will tell who had the EVIDENCE and who's opinion was ultimately wrong.
wrong.

thank you for your time.

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:54 pm

CombatClaret wrote:The leave campaign made 872 predictions and promises, 0 have to come to fruition.
The main PREDICTION they made, the uk will be better off outside the EU, has yet to be either proved or disproved.


We have not left yet.

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:54 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:wrong.

thank you for your time.
If you'd like to explain why I'm wrong......

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:00 pm

TVC15 wrote:How’s that changing your tune ?
I’ve said the same thing.
Nobody can know the impact of Brexit yet - so that is just an opinion.
Opinion can be based on evidence.

Do you struggle with basic English or are you just a complete t-wat ?
This thread is very conclusive EVIDENCE of both.

To have EVIDENCE on which to base an OPINION that brexit will have a negative impact on the uk. You have to be able to provide the evidence by looking at the effects of leaving the EU had on a country, or countries , that have left PREVIOUSLY.

No country has ever left the EU before.

You , therefore have no evidence.

You can have supposition, presupposition, presumption, premise, belief, expectation, conjecture, speculation, surmise, guess, theory, hypothesis, postulation, deduction, inference, thought, suspicion, assumptions, projections, scenarios given varying criteria, predictions, assumptions and forecasts .

You cannot provide EVIDENCE from or for an event that has not happened.

What you do have is exactly what I have an OPINION.
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3321 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:04 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote: You , therefore have evidence.
I knew we’d get there in the end.
Well done.

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:17 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Wrong again! Only once we’be left the EU will one side be able to show that their INTERPRETATION of the evidence was correct.
No you're wrong.


In your previous post you claimed-

"Both using the same evidence but getting different OPINIONS!"

Now you've substituted the word OPINION for the word INTERPRETATION.

But that's fine I'll let you continue shooting yourself in the foot by using what ever words you like.

But you're still conceding, whether consciously or not. That when 2 people point to ongoing event or events , ( the example I gave was foreign investment into the the uk being at records levels , there are other examples of positivity about the uk economy) but draw polar opposing OPINIONS/ INTERPRETATION only the passage of time will allow one of them to claim it was indeed , EVIDENCE that supported their OPINION / INTERPRETATION. With polar opposite OPINIONS, both cannot be right.

Till then, given they have opposing OPINIONS, which Remoaners and Brexiteers do. Neither can claim, what may turn out to be short term or reversible business as EVIDENCE.

We have not left the European Union yet.

No other country previously has.


You cannot provide EVIDENCE from or for an event that has not happened yet.
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:19 pm

TVC15 wrote:I knew we’d get there in the end.
Well done.
Unfortunately no. Hold my hand up. I missed the all important word (rushing on my lunch break) Here is the amended version!

To have EVIDENCE on which to base an OPINION that brexit will have a negative impact on the uk. You have to be able to provide the evidence by looking at the effects of leaving the EU had on a country, or countries , that have left PREVIOUSLY.

No country has ever left the EU before. 

You , therefore have no evidence. 

You can have supposition, presupposition, presumption, premise, belief, expectation, conjecture, speculation, surmise, guess, theory, hypothesis, postulation, deduction, inference, thought, suspicion, assumptions, projections, scenarios given varying criteria, predictions, assumptions and forecasts .

You cannot provide EVIDENCE from or for an event that has not happened. 

What you do have, is exactly what I have.

An OPINION.
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3321 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:45 pm

So let me get this clear Wrongo....as you seem a little confused.

Are you saying that an opinion cannot be supported by evidence ?

Put away your Thesaurus for one minute and just start answering the questions you are being asked.

If somebody believes that Brexit will have a negative impact on jobs in the UK and as part of his opinion puts forward evidence of job losses which have already occurred where the companies involved have publically said the reason for the losses are in anticipation of Brexit are you saying that the evidence they have put forward is not evidence ?.....because you seem to be saying that.

I am not saying that their opinion as to the final negative or positive outcome on jobs is anything more than an opinion - how can it be ? But their evidence is factual (in the example I have given)

In the same way if lots of companies were recruiting new jobs directly in anticipation of Brexit then that would also be evidence to support an opinion.

It really isn’t that hard to understand.

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:49 pm

TVC15 wrote:So let me get this clear Wrongo....as you seem a little confused.

Are you saying that an opinion cannot be supported by evidence ?

Put away your Thesaurus for one minute and just start answering the questions you are being asked.

If somebody believes that Brexit will have a negative impact on jobs in the UK and as part of his opinion puts forward evidence of job losses which have already occurred where the companies involved have publically said the reason for the losses are in anticipation of Brexit are you saying that the evidence they have put forward is not evidence ?.....because you seem to be saying that.

I am not saying that their opinion as to the final negative or positive outcome on jobs is anything more than an opinion - how can it be ? But their evidence is factual (in the example I have given)

In the same way if lots of companies were recruiting new jobs directly in anticipation of Brexit then that would also be evidence to support an opinion.

It really isn’t that hard to understand.
Foreign investment into the uk as reached records levels since the vote to leave.

the FT of all places is reporting that EU asset managers are actually considering moving to the UK because of Brexit. That wasn’t in the script…

EU fund managers are up in arms over EU rules which would force them to trade dual-listed shares on uncompetitive EU exchanges after Brexit if the Commission refuse to give them access to London after Brexit. The German Investment Funds Association said that “without equivalence granted to UK trading venues, we see the real possibility of EU27 fund managers locating operations in the future in the UK”. 


Are the above EVIDENCE that brexit will have a POSITIVE impact on the uk economy?

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3321 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:00 pm

If the companies who have invested in the UK specifically said that their investment was directly in anticipation of Brexit happening then yes that is evidence of a positive impact on the UK economy.

Do we have a breakthrough ? Are you actually beginning to understand that evidence can support an opinion ?

Feel free to quote the companies and where they have said that their investment was as a result / anticipation of Brexit. If you do that would be great as at last you will be providing evidence to support your opinion.
Last edited by TVC15 on Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:05 pm, edited 5 times in total.

CombatClaret
Posts: 4381
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:09 pm
Been Liked: 1825 times
Has Liked: 929 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:10 pm

TVC15 wrote: Do we have a breakthrough ? Are you actually beginning to understand that evidence can support an opinion ?
:lol:
Shockingly an OPINION can even be EVIDENCE if it comes from a specialist or expert in the field. :o :o
I may have gone to far for Wrongo.

Just like how in a trial a special witness can be called to give their expert OPINION to add to the BODY OF EVIDENCE.

quoonbeatz
Posts: 4491
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:03 am
Been Liked: 2562 times
Has Liked: 757 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by quoonbeatz » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:20 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:If you'd like to explain why I'm wrong......
no need mate, this entire thread is devoted to it, you don't need me piling in as well.
These 2 users liked this post: Greenmile Burnley Ace

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3321 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:25 pm

CombatClaret wrote::lol:
Shockingly an OPINION can even be EVIDENCE if it comes from a specialist or expert in the field. :o :o
I may have gone to far for Wrongo.

Just like how in a trial a special witness can be called to give their expert OPINION to add to the BODY OF EVIDENCE.
You may well have gone too far !!
Will be interesting if he ever bothers to provide any evidence whether this ends up being evidence to support his opinion or just some numbers showing foreign investment since June 2016....oh the irony !

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:25 pm

TVC15 wrote:If the companies who have invested in the UK specifically said that their investment was directly in anticipation of Brexit happening then yes that is evidence of a positive impact on the UK economy.

Do we have a breakthrough ? Are you actually beginning to understand that evidence can support an opinion.

Feel free to quote the companies and where they have said that their investment was as a result of
I cannot name a single company as I only read the headline figures.

But in the lead up to the referendum Alistair Darling claimed , " a vote to Leave the EU would see confidence in the UK economy evaporate overnight "

We voted to Leave and what he said, clearly has not happened and record levels of foreign investment shows it.

(And before anyone is tempted to jump in and say," but we haven't left yet". I know that. But the former Chancellors claim was based upon the act of voting to leave. Not the process of leaving)

But you've made an ASSUMPTION. An incorrect one.

I'm NOT claiming that records levels of foreign investment or that dual listing means that EU asset managers are actually considering moving to the UK because of Brexit. ( in the case of the latter it is directly in anticipation of Brexit happening BTW) is EVIDENCE that brexit will have a POSITIVE impact . Not for one moment.

I'm saying that businesses are doing what they've always done.

And will continue to do.

Namely, make business decisions. Long term, short term and decisions that may prove to be reversible or permanent.

The business environment is fluid and affected by a multitude of variables.

For EITHER side to point to business decisions as EVIDENCE that brexit will have a negative or positive impact on the uk is premature.

We have not left yet.

Your pointing to business decisions, that may prove to have been short term or reversible, and making the quantum leap to claiming them to be EVIDENCE that supports your OPINION .

Just as I'd be WRONG to claim record foreign investment or EU fund managers relocating as EVIDENCE that supports my OPINION.

You could have EVIDENCE that brexit will have a negative impact on the uk, to point to. If another country had previously left.

There hasn't been one.

Only once we've left, and a certain amount of time has passed. Will one side be able to point to todays ongoing business decisions has being EVIDENCE that the decision to leave the European Union WAS , after all, either a positive or negative one for the UK.

In the meantime stop making ASSUMPTIONS
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:32 pm

CombatClaret wrote::lol:
Shockingly an OPINION can even be EVIDENCE if it comes from a specialist or expert in the field. :o :o
I may have gone to far for Wrongo.

Just like how in a trial a special witness can be called to give their expert OPINION to add to the BODY OF EVIDENCE.
Presumably the trail takes place AFTER THE EVENT?

Get yourself to the trial judge and ask him to sentence somebody for murder based on a witness statement which was added to form the BODY OF EVIDENCE.


BEFORE THE MURDER TOOK PLACE.

(Clue - we have not left the European Union. YET)

KateR
Posts: 4139
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:46 pm
Been Liked: 1018 times
Has Liked: 6157 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:04 pm

37 pages of arguing :) I have read much here and other places plus talked with people I consider knowledgeable about business and it's impending effects, I have gained few nuggets that I researched further if I thought material to either side, however have never changed my mind but 4 bellows gives me some nervous thoughts about my thoughts and what could have been.

One question I find interesting in all these debates and arguments is " has anyone, just one single person changed there opinion from what they had when the vote was taken?" I read a lot of polls saying so many people have changed there minds but have never met one personally, this forum could be a good sample poll to see if anyone has changed there mind!

So in this case maybe LC could set up a simple poll same as he did for the ISIS girl, simple yes or no should be enough.

so much disinformation and conclusions jumped to because some "expert" predicted things and yet they have not happened, experts use prior knowledge and sometimes logarithms to develop scenarios and get paid to pick one outcome they think most likely to happen, companies/governments etc. then decide whether to make investment decisions based on that experts "guess".

So many clever people guess wrong when predicting what will happen in the future, there is evidence of this going back a long way, always best to listen to conflicting experts and try to weigh up the pros & cons.

It must be evident to anyone that the early claims from both sides were posturing to try and influence the vote, and after the vote to use as scare tactics in an attempt to influence people further. We will not know either way in April 2019 the outcome and I predict as an expert that:
1) You wont really know in April 2020.
2) The effects (assuming we leave) will be different for many areas of the country and for all industries, some good some not, so depending where you live and what job you do will drive the outcome as you actually feel it. The fisherman in Fleetwood, the farmer in Cornwall and the banker in The City of London will all have different outcomes. People will certainly suffer, but please they have for the whole time the UK has been in the EU, they will be united in there suffering through certain industries
3) The effects should in reality be measure in the national interests, as general if the country is doing well then it filters down somewhat, so maybe the financial market and the pound should be a measure to gauge effects, but this may need years to settle down, hopefully there will not be 377 pages of this by then. However I know there will be a slew of new posts/pages entitled "I told you so"


4) The leaders of the country have done a poor job in negotiating to date and don't expect that to change, they have done an even poorer job of planning how to take advantage of leaving, Corporate Tax was mentioned and I agree with this plus numerous other stimulants to improve business and costs for the long term future.
5) My final expert insight and this is not a guess but is factual, quite a lot of people will make a lot of money out of the UK leaving (if we do)

KateR
Posts: 4139
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:46 pm
Been Liked: 1018 times
Has Liked: 6157 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:07 pm

KateR wrote:37 pages of arguing :) I have read much here and other places plus talked with people I consider knowledgeable about business and it's impending effects, I have gained few nuggets that I researched further if I thought material to either side, however have never changed my mind but 4 below gives me some nervous thoughts about my thoughts and what could have been.

One question I find interesting in all these debates and arguments is " has anyone, just one single person changed there opinion from what they had when the vote was taken?" I read a lot of polls saying so many people have changed there minds but have never met one personally, this forum could be a good sample poll to see if anyone has changed there mind!

So in this case maybe someone could set up a simple poll same as id for the political poll, simple yes or no should be enough.

so much disinformation and conclusions jumped to because some "expert" predicted things and yet they have not happened, experts use prior knowledge and sometimes logarithms to develop scenarios and get paid to pick one outcome they think most likely to happen, companies/governments etc. then decide whether to make investment decisions based on that experts "guess".

So many clever people guess wrong when predicting what will happen in the future, there is evidence of this going back a long way, always best to listen to conflicting experts and try to weigh up the pros & cons.

It must be evident to anyone that the early claims from both sides were posturing to try and influence the vote, and after the vote to use as scare tactics in an attempt to influence people further. We will not know either way in April 2019 the outcome and I predict as an expert that:
1) You wont really know in April 2020.
2) The effects (assuming we leave) will be different for many areas of the country and for all industries, some good some not, so depending where you live and what job you do will drive the outcome as you actually feel it. The fisherman in Fleetwood, the farmer in Cornwall and the banker in The City of London will all have different outcomes. People will certainly suffer, but please they have for the whole time the UK has been in the EU, they will be united in there suffering through certain industries
3) The effects should in reality be measure in the national interests, as general if the country is doing well then it filters down somewhat, so maybe the financial market and the pound should be a measure to gauge effects, but this may need years to settle down, hopefully there will not be 377 pages of this by then. However I know there will be a slew of new posts/pages entitled "I told you so"


4) The leaders of the country have done a poor job in negotiating to date and don't expect that to change, they have done an even poorer job of planning how to take advantage of leaving, Corporate Tax was mentioned and I agree with this plus numerous other stimulants to improve business and costs for the long term future.
5) My final expert insight and this is not a guess but is factual, quite a lot of people will make a lot of money out of the UK leaving (if we do)

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:09 pm

This thread is great.

I always though I knew what constituted evidence, but it turns out that a bloke from Burnley has completely reinvented what it means.

This could be the only benefit of Brexit.

In years to come, people will be using the Ringoscale of what constitutes evidence.

We should be blessed that we live in such times.

Rejoice!

Tall Paul
Posts: 7171
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:07 am
Been Liked: 2561 times
Has Liked: 690 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Tall Paul » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:09 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:If you'd like to explain why I'm wrong......
It's mainly because you struggle to understand basic English and are incapable of logical thought.
These 2 users liked this post: Bordeauxclaret Burnley Ace

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:33 pm

Tall Paul wrote:It's mainly because you struggle to understand basic English and are incapable of logical thought.
I know what evidence means.

Prove you do.

Provide EVIDENCE that brexit will have a negative impact on the uk.

Before you do make sure it's not simply supposition, presupposition, presumption, premise, belief, expectation, conjecture, speculation, surmise, guess, theory, hypothesis, postulation, deduction, inference, thought, suspicion, assumptions, projections, scenarios given varying criteria, predictions, assumptions and forecasts .

You could start by naming the country that has previously left the EU.

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:45 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:This thread is great.

I always though I knew what constituted evidence, but it turns out that a bloke from Burnley has completely reinvented what it means.

This could be the only benefit of Brexit.

In years to come, people will be using the Ringoscale of what constitutes evidence!

In years to come people will have the benefit of time and the perspective it gives to be able to judge whether or not what were seen as short term or reversible business decisions, as EVIDENCE that brexit had a negative or positive impact on the uk.

In the meantime a few blokes who voted remain who post on a Burnley message board, will continue to claim they've invented time travel.

Which one of you lot is entrusted with the keys to the Delorean?
This user liked this post: KateR

Imploding Turtle
Posts: 19799
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:12 am
Been Liked: 5483 times
Has Liked: 2540 times
Location: Burnley, Lancs

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:49 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:I know what evidence means.

Prove you do.

Provide EVIDENCE that brexit will have a negative impact on the uk.

Before you do make sure it's not simply supposition, presupposition, presumption, premise, belief, expectation, conjecture, speculation, surmise, guess, theory, hypothesis, postulation, deduction, inference, thought, suspicion, assumptions, projections, scenarios given varying criteria, predictions, assumptions and forecasts .

You could start by naming the country that has previously left the EU.

Hey there, genius.

Here's how the evidence works. We have a bunch of benefits from being in the EU that will no longer be available to us when we leave the EU.

What we do is subtract those benefits and model how things will be for us without those benefits. What those models seem to show, considering every economist with credibility thinks it will be a disaster, is that it will be a ******* disaster.

Now, genius, what does a "disaster" imply? Does it imply something good, or does it imply something bad?

RingoMcCartney
Posts: 10318
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:45 pm
Been Liked: 2636 times
Has Liked: 2798 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:53 pm

REQUIRED -

One Psychic Remoaner.











You know who you are.

Imploding Turtle
Posts: 19799
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:12 am
Been Liked: 5483 times
Has Liked: 2540 times
Location: Burnley, Lancs

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:55 pm

Ringo, is this how you "think" about climate change too? Because we've never lived through such a catastrophic climate change we can't possibly know that it'll be bad for us?

Locked