37 pages of arguing
I have read much here and other places plus talked with people I consider knowledgeable about business and it's impending effects, I have gained few nuggets that I researched further if I thought material to either side, however have never changed my mind but 4 bellows gives me some nervous thoughts about my thoughts and what could have been.
One question I find interesting in all these debates and arguments is " has anyone, just one single person changed there opinion from what they had when the vote was taken?" I read a lot of polls saying so many people have changed there minds but have never met one personally, this forum could be a good sample poll to see if anyone has changed there mind!
So in this case maybe LC could set up a simple poll same as he did for the ISIS girl, simple yes or no should be enough.
so much disinformation and conclusions jumped to because some "expert" predicted things and yet they have not happened, experts use prior knowledge and sometimes logarithms to develop scenarios and get paid to pick one outcome they think most likely to happen, companies/governments etc. then decide whether to make investment decisions based on that experts "guess".
So many clever people guess wrong when predicting what will happen in the future, there is evidence of this going back a long way, always best to listen to conflicting experts and try to weigh up the pros & cons.
It must be evident to anyone that the early claims from both sides were posturing to try and influence the vote, and after the vote to use as scare tactics in an attempt to influence people further. We will not know either way in April 2019 the outcome and I predict as an expert that:
1) You wont really know in April 2020.
2) The effects (assuming we leave) will be different for many areas of the country and for all industries, some good some not, so depending where you live and what job you do will drive the outcome as you actually feel it. The fisherman in Fleetwood, the farmer in Cornwall and the banker in The City of London will all have different outcomes. People will certainly suffer, but please they have for the whole time the UK has been in the EU, they will be united in there suffering through certain industries
3) The effects should in reality be measure in the national interests, as general if the country is doing well then it filters down somewhat, so maybe the financial market and the pound should be a measure to gauge effects, but this may need years to settle down, hopefully there will not be 377 pages of this by then. However I know there will be a slew of new posts/pages entitled "I told you so"
4) The leaders of the country have done a poor job in negotiating to date and don't expect that to change, they have done an even poorer job of planning how to take advantage of leaving, Corporate Tax was mentioned and I agree with this plus numerous other stimulants to improve business and costs for the long term future.
5) My final expert insight and this is not a guess but is factual, quite a lot of people will make a lot of money out of the UK leaving (if we do)