CrosspoolClarets wrote:The independents are doubled down Blairite liberal centrists. The kind that have been running the U.K. for 20 years. So I don’t think people will vote for them as a new thing.
I don’t think there would be a “no deal” Cabinet because few want no deal (even Steve Baker in the ERG,someone I admire). What they want is no backstop (which with a bit of brinkmanship they could partially get but not fully), and a different wording to the political declaration (the starting point for trade talks which puts us at an immediate disadvantage despite it being technically not binding). I don't think it is unreasonable to think the ERG may try to appoint a Government after an election that sends us in that direction.
Does that address any of the points I made?
It touches on the fringes maybe.
But you make no reference to the bigger issues I was questioning.
How can the ERG trigger a General Election and appoint a new government without delaying brexit? There simply aren't enough days left.
And again, what makes you think there would be enough "ERG" disciples elected to significantly change the Parliamentary maths?
If an election were announced on Monday, virtually every single one of the sitting Tory MPs would be standing again, (there wouldn't be time for their local parties to put them through a de-selection process, and even if they tried, it would be divisive and they would peel off into the independents thus splitting the Tory vote).
There would also be a lot of tactical voting in many seats, and it might throw up some very unexpected results.
(Incidentally, i think that you under-estimate the ambitions of the ERG group. The backstop issue is just a mask for their greater agenda)