Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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nil_desperandum
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:59 pm

Elizabeth wrote:This week's so called independents are likely to be batted into parliamentary history as soon as the electorate in their constituencies get the first opportunity to vote
Do you really think Heidi Allen would lose her seat?
Big majority in a strongly pro-remain constituency, and she would no doubt pick up lots of sympathetic Lib dem voters who can't win the seat.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:03 am

For some reason, Elizabeth reminds me of Carol, the protagonist's ex-wife in Irvine Welsh's "Filth".

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Elizabeth » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:07 am

As Lancaster has proven tonight that he is unsuitable to adjudicate between which posters are trying to score points and those that are figuratively turning the lights on to help, I am happy to leave others to judge

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Elizabeth » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:11 am

So Heidi keeps her seat and that makes it OK for the others?

Welcome Greenmile, come out to play with the rest of your gang I see. Let me guess, you voted to remain and want a second referendum. Let me help before you attempt to belittle me further. Please read the full history of discussion tonight

Oh, and of course everybody is familiar with the character you referred to

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Elizabeth » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:29 am

Looks like it's goodnight.

Whatever happens let's hope that the hard working people of the UK are properly rewarded and those that require assistance receive it

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spiral » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:39 am

What were your reasons for voting leave, Elizabeth? You seem worried about the consequences.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Elizabeth » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:04 am

Blimey Spiral, I was just about to leave ( pun?)

Thats a big assumption you are making there because the only doubt I have expressed tonight is about leaving with no deal.
Something instinctively tells me that by asking me why I voted to leave you are trying to open me up for more unnecessary insults that a previous poster has tried to make.
My reasons were not because the NHS would get so many million a week. Nor were they about not wanting hard working EU citizens contributing to our wealth.
I have already posted what I think of the EU body. I think we can grow more as a united kingdom outside and am content to find out what differences can be made to the lives of law abiding citizens.
There, I have tried not to fall into any traps by keeping my language simple and without the key words that politicians use and unfortunately normal people repeat without really understanding.
Of course I know this will not be enough for some.
If I am worried about any consequence it is the real threat of civil unrest if the verdict of the nation in 2016 is overturned.
This is why I will contest at any time those who voted to remain and are acting as they are now. I have read views that it is these people who are the extremists and I would not disagree with those views.
And I enjoyed the Advocates cartoon. I would not have expected such good humour coming from that direction. Even if it may have been aimed at me.

Now it really is Goodnight from me. I feel I have written too much this evening when I could have been enjoying a good read about maybe a literary character or something

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spiral » Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:09 am

No insults. Not interested in that. I was sincere in asking why you voted to leave.

When you voted to leave, did you vote leave in the knowledge that the Irish border could become a problem the more we distance ourselves from the EU?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:52 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Depends on whether we are planning to crash out on No Deal or not.

And Elizabeth, with the deepest respect, I'm posting on this and the goals thread from tonight.

I'm quite capable of doing both!
Just like when your hero, James O'Brien says, "with the greatest love and respect", you mean non at all.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:28 am

Spiral wrote:No insults. Not interested in that. I was sincere in asking why you voted to leave.

When you voted to leave, did you vote leave in the knowledge that the Irish border could become a problem the more we distance ourselves from the EU?
She claimed she didn’t vote leave.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by JohnMcGreal » Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:06 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Just opened up this thread again for my daily read. Interesting recent debate. I struggle to disagree with a word of #2071 so it’s amusing that Lancs thinks he has proven all those points wrong. Just saying they are wrong does not prove them wrong.

This is where I think we are now.

The behaviour of Remainers is likely to result in us getting a bad, bad deal but you never know.

There won’t be a no deal. There never would have been. Too much at stake. The Remainer behaviour harms our negotiating position but the grandstanding Varadkar would eventually capitulate and there would have been a backstop watering down. The plan, I suspect, is for Gove to go on Marr on Sunday and talk more about what he said this week - that to protect farmers we would have tariffs on food if we leave with no deal. Bye bye Ireland’s farming industry. That’s why there will be a compromise, and a deal, no thanks to the Remainers.

While I think it is 75% likely we will agree a bad deal, another possibility opens up which is 25% likely. If Parliament vote for the Cooper amendment next week (banning no deal) then as long as the EU agree we suddenly have time. Time for the ERG to bring down the Government, appoint a new leader, and try to get a majority while Labour is in chaos. The Independent Group would be wiped out before they have began. That may be the ERG’s best chance of a clean Brexit. So if I was a Remainer thinking of voting for Cooper, I would be very wary. Better to agree to May’s bad deal and end up in a Custom’s Union of sorts.

I don’t see much chance of getting the Brexit I voted for (a free trade agreement with moderate migration equally assessed worldwide, with tariffs renegotiated and freedom from the ECJ). But hey ho. That was always going to be the case and it was always going to take a generation.
So you voted for a fantasy that many people said was undeliverable and now you're lashing out at those people because it's coming true.

Nice one.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:42 am

Well I've no respect for a racist like you andy.

Hope that's clear enough like.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:58 am

Interesting full page article by Lancaster in the Times today (under his pen name, Sir Ivan Rogers).

It goes to great lengths (literally) to point out all the weaknesses and flaws in our trade strategy (no doubt often true), but not once does he propose an idea or a solution. Not once does he identify the EU’s weaknesses for us to exploit (like the Irish farming sector). He identifies Switzerland and Norway as being legitimately outside the EU but then says they wouldn’t be his preferred models. But doesn’t say what is. Just talks about how difficult it is and why he was right all along (oh, and feel free to buy his book).

Senior Managers have to lift themselves out of their comfort zones and talk from the perspective of other people. Rogers is like the guy in the meeting who constantly says “no, can’t do that”. He’s about as much use as a chocolate teapot. I can see why May replaced him as ambassador.

Sorry, don’t have a link, I read it on the app and I’m about to set off to the Turf.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:08 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Not sure that I understand what you are saying, but anyway:
Let's say that the ERG do bring down May, and the Tories get a new leader who appointed a "no deal" cabinet, it wouldn't change the maths in parliament one bit. It would still be the same MPs with the same views, and still no majority for no deal
If you are saying that the ERG could force a Gen Election in order to change the Maths, then they would also have to vote to delay brexit, because they couldn't possibly hold an election and get a new government in place to negotiate with Brussels before March 29th.
And even if brexit were delayed and a Gen Election held, it's by no means certain that the MPs returned would produce a majority for no deal, since the number of "no dealers" at present is very small indeed.
And I wouldn't be too sure that the independents - of which there would be a lot standing, would be wiped out. (The vast majority of the population are disillusioned with the mainstream parties at present, and potentially a lot of votes could go to Farage's new party and independents.)
The independents are doubled down Blairite liberal centrists. The kind that have been running the U.K. for 20 years. So I don’t think people will vote for them as a new thing.

I don’t think there would be a “no deal” Cabinet because few want no deal (even Steve Baker in the ERG,someone I admire). What they want is no backstop (which with a bit of brinkmanship they could partially get but not fully), and a different wording to the political declaration (the starting point for trade talks which puts us at an immediate disadvantage despite it being technically not binding). I don't think it is unreasonable to think the ERG may try to appoint a Government after an election that sends us in that direction.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:16 am

So a non expert dismisses an expert?

Brexiteer 101 playbook to a tee.

The fact that every Brexiteer solution is unworkable and has been proven to be just passes Crosspool by.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:19 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Well I've no respect for a racist like you andy.

Hope that's clear enough like.
Waycist, Waycist,

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:59 am

Oh, I've got respect for you that you don't attempt to hide it.

Funniest thing about this Brexit is that people like you will be the most disappointed.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:04 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:The independents are doubled down Blairite liberal centrists. The kind that have been running the U.K. for 20 years. So I don’t think people will vote for them as a new thing.

I don’t think there would be a “no deal” Cabinet because few want no deal (even Steve Baker in the ERG,someone I admire). What they want is no backstop (which with a bit of brinkmanship they could partially get but not fully), and a different wording to the political declaration (the starting point for trade talks which puts us at an immediate disadvantage despite it being technically not binding). I don't think it is unreasonable to think the ERG may try to appoint a Government after an election that sends us in that direction.
Does that address any of the points I made?
It touches on the fringes maybe.
But you make no reference to the bigger issues I was questioning.
How can the ERG trigger a General Election and appoint a new government without delaying brexit? There simply aren't enough days left.
And again, what makes you think there would be enough "ERG" disciples elected to significantly change the Parliamentary maths?
If an election were announced on Monday, virtually every single one of the sitting Tory MPs would be standing again, (there wouldn't be time for their local parties to put them through a de-selection process, and even if they tried, it would be divisive and they would peel off into the independents thus splitting the Tory vote).
There would also be a lot of tactical voting in many seats, and it might throw up some very unexpected results.
(Incidentally, i think that you under-estimate the ambitions of the ERG group. The backstop issue is just a mask for their greater agenda)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:17 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Oh, I've got respect for you that you don't attempt to hide it.

Funniest thing about this Brexit is that people like you will be the most disappointed.
Really? I thought we'd agreed on a customs union?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:19 am

Elizabeth wrote:So Heidi keeps her seat and that makes it OK for the others?
I was using her as an example.
In the current climate most of the "independents" would have a realistic chance of holding on to their seats. There would be a lot of tactical voting, and they would appeal to "moderates" of all political colours.
Lots of Tories disillusioned by "Blue-kip" and lots of Labour voters opposed to Corbyn. Add in those of a Lib Dem persuasion who know they can't win and their chances don't look so bleak.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:34 am

nil_desperandum wrote:I was using her as an example.
In the current climate most of the "independents" would have a realistic chance of holding on to their seats. There would be a lot of tactical voting, and they would appeal to "moderates" of all political colours.
Lots of Tories disillusioned by "Blue-kip" and lots of Labour voters opposed to Corbyn. Add in those of a Lib Dem persuasion who know they can't win and their chances don't look so bleak.
The big majority is a tory majority, not a Heidi allen majority.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:08 am

AndyClaret wrote:The big majority is a tory majority, not a Heidi allen majority.
As I said in previous post - and it's always worth looking at context, it's a massive remain majority in this seat.
Neither Labour nor Libs can win it, so large numbers of them would most likely switch to her, and she will presumably retain all the Tory "remain" votes.
Incidentally, technically the big majority is currently for her, not the party. That's how our Parliamentary democracy works.
Other than that - good post.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spiral » Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:45 pm

Bordeauxclaret wrote:She claimed she didn’t vote leave.
Hence my probing about 'voting to leave' with such a banal line of inquisition. Whoever Elizabeth is, it's a poor attempt at astroturfing. It shouldn't be too difficult to maintain a basic degree of continuity when peddling bull$hit fiction but a house of cards is notoriously unstable.

Here's the post, in case anyone else is curious;
On Oct 13th, 2016, Elizabeth wrote:I voted remain but would vote leave now.
From this thread;

http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboar ... 59#p205359" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I suppose the problem in pointing this out now without an admission in this thread of voting leave is the inevitable backpeddling, 'integrity of democracy' and other such b0llocks. All the signs were there, though; dormant account with low posting history comes alive on a contentious political issue at a crucial time in the process with adversarial content etc. etc. Martin noticed the same spelling error Ringo makes, wouldn't be the least surprised were that the case.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:27 pm

Polls still seem to be shifting towards people changing their mind on Brexit:

Image

The interesting point is when this will start influencing politicians. I think most would agree that May would happily give up her current stance that she is "delivering what the people voted for" if there's the risk of the majority of the public turning against her and the Tory party.

https://www.businessinsider.com/yougov- ... ?r=US&IR=T" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(There's the obvious caveats about the accuracy of polls but the trend is fairly telling, even if you don't have trust in the absolute numbers.)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:33 pm

Thing is, too many of her party are not going to change their mind.

She is incapable of separating leadership of the UK with leadership of the party, and her refusal to face down the uber Brexity 1/4 is driving the whole country (and still her party) perilously close to a cliff we don't want to be going over with our current level of preparedness.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:47 pm

I'd say that apart from the ERG the rest of the party is pragmatic enough to go whichever way the wind is blowing, staying in power is the important thing.

An extension is starting to look more likely given Tusk's comments today and the longer it drags on the more likely opinion will change I reckon.

Tusk:
In order to put an end to speculation, I can say first of all that Prime Minister May and I discussed yesterday a lot of issues, including the legal and procedural context of a potential extension. For me it is absolutely clear that there is no majority in the House of Commons to approve a deal. We will face an alternative: a chaotic Brexit, or extension.

The less time there is until the 29 March, the greater is the likelihood of an extension. And this is an objective fact; not our intention, not our plan, but an objective fact.

I believe that in the situation we are in an extension would be a rational solution. But Prime Minister May still believes that she is able to avoid this scenario.

And I can assure you, and I did it also yesterday during my meeting with Prime Minister May, that no matter in which scenario it will be, all the [EU] 27 will show maximum understanding and goodwill.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:11 pm

the fact and the objective fact is that Tusk and EU have changed there minds on quite a few things they spent saying no to at the 11th hour, including just hours before they were in deep do do!!

Right now both sides playing chicken however I will say the vast majority if not all (the key people) are saying the same thing from one script where unfortunately due to the real lack of experience/knowledge and the main desire to disagree with the Tories/May there is a complete lack of cohesion in British politics, much the same as on this board really!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Burnley Ace » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:46 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Really? I thought we'd agreed on a customs union?
I haven’t seen any confirmation that a CU has been agree. Wouldn’t that preclude us from agreeing any independent deals as we would be tied to EU agreements and any future ones?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:55 pm

No, me and him agreed that a Customs Union made sense on twitter. Only thing we did agree on mind!

The immigration issues that would cause were tactfully ignored by both of us in the search for common ground. :-)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:39 pm

And Labour finally (after the leadership suddenly realise that its actually an issue for most of their members and MPs) put a 2nd ref on the table.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:48 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:And Labour finally (after the leadership suddenly realise that its actually an issue for most of their members and MPs) put a 2nd ref on the table.
It's not quite as simple as that.
Attachments
6.PNG
6.PNG (15.45 KiB) Viewed 1037 times

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:50 pm

Of course, but its a movement towards an actual peoples vote which is what they were promising. Hard to see it not being a full on one from here to be honest.

If he ***** this up to try to keep UKIP voting Labour on side (a very small amount) then he deserves all the **** he will get.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:53 pm

It's a public vote on Labour's version of brexit, the last time i looked Labour aren't negotiating Brexit.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:58 pm

labour are not in charge, so the only suggestion it can be is to back a vote on Mays deal or remain.

Thats the reality at the moment (might change this week depending on various amendments)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:01 pm

Labour stitch up confirmed.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status ... 3054695424" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:10 pm

Weird how you can read that and not come to the same conclusion I did.

More than weird.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Weird how you can read that and not come to the same conclusion I did.

More than weird.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status ... 8578819073" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and the real reason behind it, to stop more defections.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/sta ... 5748075521" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Weird how you can read that and not come to the same conclusion I did.

More than weird.
Probably because you are seeing what you want to see.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:17 pm

This nails it.

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/ ... 1496172547" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:20 pm

No it doesn't.

Its a brexiteer interpretation of it,

Its a significant move because it opens the door for a full on pledge for a 2nd ref.

Brexiteers are absolutely shitting themselves already.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:26 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No it doesn't.

Its a brexiteer interpretation of it,

Its a significant move because it opens the door for a full on pledge for a 2nd ref.

Brexiteers are absolutely shitting themselves already.
You can wish for it all you want, there's plenty of Labour MP's who won't vote for a second referendum, it's not going to happen.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:29 pm

Whose wishing anything?

I just deal with the reality of the situation and the changing realities of Brexit andy.

You do need to try it sometime.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:29 pm

Be interesting to see the detail later tonight.

A lot of the Brexit crew look to be foaming at the mouth already though.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by randomclaret2 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:31 pm

What will be the question on the second referendum ?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:32 pm

There is a searchlight projecting a profile of Ringo on to the clouds as we type.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No it doesn't.

Its a brexiteer interpretation of it,

Its a significant move because it opens the door for a full on pledge for a 2nd ref.

Brexiteers are absolutely shitting themselves already.
I just deal with being bitter & twisted as I never got the result I initially wanted, that’s a fixed reality, regarding labours move brexiteers know games are being played in order for votes, Corbyn has been under pressure lately & will say anything to deflect that onto something else.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Caballo » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:59 pm

Labour are in a very strange position, their party membership appear to be largely in favour of ref2, their core voters outside of the M25 however, not so much.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:07 pm

If this leads to a second vote between the deal as first voted on and remain it will be the biggest betrayal of the british public ever. Imagine something trashed by 230 votes v something defeated in the biggest ever public vote. The ultimate betrayal and asking for big trouble.

If there is to be any vote it should be do you accept a deal yes or no with a sub question on if leave should it be x y or z. With x y and z probably being Norway plus, Canada plus and managed no deal if the EU won't agree one.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:12 pm

Well, I guess we will see.

Said the same to claretandy on twitter, the reason we've got to this stage is the desire of the uber Brexiteers to push for their personal vision of Brexit, rather than a compromise.

If this doesn't wake them up from the complacency they show in that nothing changes the vote, then nothing will and their dreams could end up in ashes.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by JohnMcGreal » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:13 pm

Brexit is a political corpse and it's high time someone had the ******** to finally put it in the ground.

Bring on the vote.
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