Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Lowbankclaret]

Mays deal is going to pass Crosspool.

The ERG have wasted a year trying to get the FTA that is impossible and will cave in rather than risk "No Brexit"

I am not so sure Lancs that that is going to be the case. I think it will be rejected again after watching the EU video I just posted.
There will be no significant change to the backstop.

The EU will allow the can to be kicked down the road.

And the UK guy is saying a new Ref would result in a 55/45 win for remain.

So I suggest the powers that be will drive us in that direction to test that percentage.

[martin_p]

This is classic Brexit. Don’t listen to what’s being said, then get angry about what you think has been said, then refuse to back down when you’ve been made to look a fool.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/ ... 6395633667

[Lancasterclaret]

Which is exactly why it will pass.

The ERG will have a meeting, and the absolute weapons grade incompetents in it will be sat down by the likes of JRM and have it explained to them that "ok, we will look like complete frauds for about a week, but we control the press so we can change the narrative again and push for what we want after we've left, but we can't risk not leaving".

I may be wrong, and there are enough of the ERG who genuinely believe that they can get what they want despite everything being stacked against them but I doubt it.

Doing my usual here, but the realities are

- Mays Deal
- Softer Brexit
- Remain

[martin_p]

Which is exactly why it will pass.

The ERG will have a meeting, and the absolute weapons grade incompetents in it will be sat down by the likes of JRM and have it explained to them that "ok, we will look like complete frauds for about a week, but we control the press so we can change the narrative again and push for what we want after we've left, but we can't risk not leaving".

I may be wrong, and there are enough of the ERG who genuinely believe that they can get what they want despite everything being stacked against them but I doubt it.

Doing my usual here, but the realities are

- Mays Deal
- Softer Brexit
- Remain

Just four days to go and the vice-chair of the ERG is holding the line of it not getting through.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm sure he is.

I don't believe a word he says.

[Lancasterclaret]

If Mays deal fails to pass, then all bets are off on what happens next.

Then it could anything from a "No Deal" (using the Lehmann brothers example, perfectly possible that we are incompetent enough to fall into it) to Revoking article 50.

Possibly the most likely would be the Boles "Norway +" effort but who knows?

[martin_p]

I'm sure he is.

I don't believe a word he says.

Trouble is it will be the end for the ERG and it’s members if they cave now. One thing that motivates an MP more than what is good for the country is what is good for his/her career.

[Mala591]

Thought for today:

May's 'deal' isn't a deal at all, it is a withdrawal agreement. If it is ratified by the UK and EU then it will be the 'end of the beginning' of our departure from the EU. Several years of difficult and complex 'trade deal' negotiations will then follow.

At the end of this process there will still need to be a customs/single market border between NI and the ROI.

Imo we should either have a clean break WTO Brexit (with 10% tariffs on all imports for the first year) or stay in the EU with our current arrangement.

[Lancasterclaret]

it won't be though will it?

They will twist the narrative to whatever they want.

Remember they were backing TM 24 hours after trying to vote her out.

Biggest problem we have as a country is that its more than likely that the next PM comes from the ranks of this lot.

[martin_p]

it won't be though will it?

They will twist the narrative to whatever they want.

Remember they were backing TM 24 hours after trying to vote her out.

Biggest problem we have as a country is that its more than likely that the next PM comes from the ranks of this lot.

Hmmm, I’m not so sure. It’ll be difficult to turn round 4/5 months of saying this isn’t Brexit to something that they can sell to their supporters. The TM thing was relatively easy, we had a vote, the party spoke, she won the vote, so she’s Tory leader and we therefore as Tories support her. Any other response would have completely undermined their ‘respecting democracy’ argument.

[Lancasterclaret]

You assume that they think like we do.

They are perfectly capable of justifying anything to themselves.

I mean, look at some of the Brexit backers on here. You can point out the absurdity of some of their positions but it makes no difference. Do you think the ERG members (people like IDS ffs!) are any different?

[martin_p]

You assume that they think like we do.

They are perfectly capable of justifying anything to themselves.

I mean, look at some of the Brexit backers on here. You can point out the absurdity of some of their positions but it makes no difference. Do you think the ERG members (people like IDS ffs!) are any different?

Well it’s a good point, but I still think hubris will win out.

[Lancasterclaret]

Well, part of me hopes you are right!

[Paul Waine]

Where’s it said that?

Hi martin, I read in The Times that "the unreliable boyfriend" Mark Carney had revised his expectations about the impact of Brexit on the UK economy. I can't remember which day of the week. I guess if someone was to look at BoE website we'd find a press release on there about it.

I looked a couple of time during the week for our "Naked Truth" thread. I'd have thought someone would have noticed that an economist had revised his views as soon as BoE report was published. Seems as though we'd all taken the week off (no bad thing, really).

I remember seeing some other "good news" for the UK earlier in the week - it might have been same day as BoE news. I can't remember now whether it was first day of Geneva motor show stuff. I read that, whatever happens, Bentley will continue to manufacture in the UK - I think they said that they are undecided how they will handle any extra "supply chain friction" costs. I guess their buyers can afford whatever the decision.

[aggi]

Hmmm, I’m not so sure. It’ll be difficult to turn round 4/5 months of saying this isn’t Brexit to something that they can sell to their supporters. The TM thing was relatively easy, we had a vote, the party spoke, she won the vote, so she’s Tory leader and we therefore as Tories support her. Any other response would have completely undermined their ‘respecting democracy’ argument.

"After months of standing firm we have have received strong assurances from the EU that the backstop position will not be implemented except as a matter of last resort and we are exceptionally confident that this will not come to pass. It was clear that certain elements were trying to thwart the will of the people by revoking Article 50 and we could not allow that to happen. The Brexit process will shape Britain for future generations and it should not be the case that we rush the process rather than taking the time to get the best deal for Britain"

Brief that May was on the brink of revoking Article 50, get a few papers on board with front pages of the ERG and a caption of "The politicans who saved Brexit" and job's a good 'un.

Look how people have stomached the Leave narrative going from easiest trade deal in history, getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards in any negotiation, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market, the day after we vote to leave we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want, etc through to No Deal is better than a bad deal and preparations for stockpiling medicines and the rest.

[JohnMcGreal]

Which is exactly why it will pass.

The ERG will have a meeting, and the absolute weapons grade incompetents in it will be sat down by the likes of JRM and have it explained to them that "ok, we will look like complete frauds for about a week, but we control the press so we can change the narrative again and push for what we want after we've left, but we can't risk not leaving".

I may be wrong, and there are enough of the ERG who genuinely believe that they can get what they want despite everything being stacked against them but I doubt it.

Doing my usual here, but the realities are

- Mays Deal
- Softer Brexit
- Remain

If (and it is a very big if) the ERG do a massive U turn and back the very same deal they previously rejected, would that be enough to get it over the line?

May lost by such a big margin last time that she'll surely need a lot more than just the ERG to back it?

Personally I think her deal will be defeated again. By a smaller margin than last time, but not small enough to have a third MV on it.

[Lancasterclaret]

30+ Lab MPs (could be as little as 10 but I doubt) will swing it I think.

Which is even better news for May, as she can point out that without lab votes it wouldn't have got through.

Labour are going to pay a heavy price for not picking a side till far too late I fear.

[dsr]

Whose side is May supposed to be on? She seems to be negotiating with the House of Commons to try and get the best possible deal for the EU.

[Lancasterclaret]

Well, that does depend on whether you believe in unicorns, or whether you deal in reality.

We will find out on Tuesday if the ERG still believe in unicorns or not.

[Quickenthetempo]

If May's deal is voted in and it's as bad as everyone thinks, then the popularity of the EU will only nose dive in this country even more.

Win win for the ERG.

[Lancasterclaret]

Its better than a "No Deal", and worse than "Remain"

Always was.

Nothing will really change for two years, and though its hard to predict what will happen around the world which might effect Europe, its not hard to predict that the population of the UK will swing further away from the ERG (if only because of simple demographics)

[dsr]

Its better than a "No Deal", and worse than "Remain"

Always was.

Nothing will really change for two years, and though its hard to predict what will happen around the world which might effect Europe, its not hard to predict that the population of the UK will swing further away from the ERG (if only because of simple demographics)

It's not hard to predict anything. It's equally as easy to predict that the population of the UK will swing away from the EU, because (unlike you) not everyone respects the EU for their negotiations over the last two years.

Are you still confident that the demographics mean that the UK population will become more pro-EU every year for ever?

[Lancasterclaret]

Of course not

But at the moment the the remain side has all the positive energy and a lot of activists.

Leave peaked three years ago, and looks shakier and shakier every single day.

I can't name a single pro-Brexit politician who you think "Yeah, he/she is really good"

Can you?

[CrosspoolClarets]

There’s so much to respond to on this thread since my last tea break, I don’t know where to start.

The Will Up-My-Self one, I thought the ERG Guy was incredibly restrained in the face of extreme and vile provocation. The trouble with lefties, they can’t see when they are being vile. Self was using sweeping statements that all intelligent members of the country had moved on from a year ago, namely insinuating that Brexit is a xenophobic and thus immoral pursuit (yes, I know his get out clause was that he wasn’t calling all voters racist but we all know mud sticks and he was trying to perpetuate the false stereotype by virtue signalling despite being bereft of virtue himself).

His biggest rival on here for condescending sweeping statements....well....I think this comment says it all: “I mean, look at some of the Brexit backers on here. You can point out the absurdity of some of their positions but it makes no difference.“. I feel the same way about the Remain position for most people but I’m too polite to say it and I respect that there are legitimate views on both sides. Needless to say I produce evidence like the earlier think tank calculations, and some people can’t bring themselves to accept it.

Finally, in terms of what will happen, I agree with Lancs (in this instance). It is May’s deal, a Customs Union handcuffed to the EU, or Remain. Our treacherous bunch of MPs and Lords won’t allow anything else. So that is May’s deal for me and I suspect the ERG will agree with me by the third vote (they don’t have a “career” to think of, they are career backbenchers in safe seats trying to do the right thing in their eyes - they won’t risk it with a Remainer PM who isn’t on the side of Leave voters).

So get May’s deal, get out, get her replaced (by bringing down the government if necessary), get a good majority for a pro-Leave party after an election, and then get a decent trade deal. If necessary we would leave the treaty by claiming the EU was not using best endeavours to replace the backstop.

[dsr]

Of course not

But at the moment the the remain side has all the positive energy and a lot of activists.

Leave peaked three years ago, and looks shakier and shakier every single day.

I can't name a single pro-Brexit politician who you think "Yeah, he/she is really good"

Can you?

As opposed to the vast array of talent on the other side?

That's one of the reasons why I reckon the public would vote Leave again. Because when the Remain side is saying "We're politicians, trust us ..." - do you think people will?

[CrosspoolClarets]

Where’s it said that?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... k-england/

[Quickenthetempo]

I can't name a single pro-Brexit politician who you think "Yeah, he/she is really good"

Can you?

I can't think of a decent politician to be fair.

[Lancasterclaret]

Cheers Crosspool

Always nice to have a fan.

I struggle with the reality of the situation as a remain voter, I have absolutely no idea how you get your head around it when you started off believing in unicorns in 2016!

As opposed to the vast array of talent on the other side?

That's one of the reasons why I reckon the public would vote Leave again. Because when the Remain side is saying "We're politicians, trust us ..." - do you think people will?

Which politicians are going to be telling them to vote remain? All the ones who have come out of this really badly will be on the leave side, and remain will harness the ones who have mobilised the pro-EU side.

You think anyone will trust Farage, IDS, JRM, Gove, Johnson this time?

Thats more than a bit unicorny!

[CrosspoolClarets]

If May’s deal goes through and is Brexit in name only what’s happening with these promised riots?

We going for them or what?

I suspect that when we look back in 20 years we shall be seeing that the following has happened:

A growing fetish for local associations booting out MPs, Parliament becomes much more “sovereign focused”, the Tories and Labour will rarely be in power again, mainly hung parliaments and coalitions, the Lords is abolished (ironic given the sovereignty focus), massive rebalancing of funding to the north and midlands, enhanced conservative policies (e.g. massive tax break for caring for elderly relatives).

You may feel some of the above is good, bad or indifferent but if that scale of things happens it will make riots seem like a tea party.

[JohnMcGreal]

The Will Up-My-Self one, I thought the ERG Guy was incredibly restrained in the face of extreme and vile provocation. The trouble with lefties, they can’t see when they are being vile. Self was using sweeping statements that all intelligent members of the country had moved on from a year ago, namely insinuating that Brexit is a xenophobic and thus immoral pursuit (yes, I know his get out clause was that he wasn’t calling all voters racist but we all know mud sticks and he was trying to perpetuate the false stereotype by virtue signalling despite being bereft of virtue himself).

Was Will Self wrong in what he said?

[Lancasterclaret]

Worth mentioning as well the current tactic of "people just want it over"

The only way to stop this continuing to affect everyone for years is to revoke article 50, and more and more people are starting to realise that.

[Paul Waine]

Was Will Self wrong in what he said?

Hi John, I didn't see Politics, but, based on past performance - and, I usually try to keep an open mind - I'm sure many experts would conclude "yes."

[Paul Waine]

Worth mentioning as well the current tactic of "people just want it over"

The only way to stop this continuing to affect everyone for years is to revoke article 50, and more and more people are starting to realise that.

I'm comfortable with revoking Article 50. I posted the same back in Dec.

However, it won't stop it "continuing to affect everyone for years...." The only way that will happen is if the EU sorts itself out (i.e. nothing to do with UK membership or not).

[JohnMcGreal]

Hi John, I didn't see Politics, but, based on past performance - and, I usually try to keep an open mind - I'm sure many experts would conclude "yes."

You don't think that most racists and anti-Semites voted to leave the EU?

Don't get me wrong, Self was definitely trying to provoke a reaction, and Francois walked right into it, making a complete fool of himself in the process.

But Self was still right in what he said.

[Lancasterclaret]

But it won't paralyze the government Paul, which is what its doing.

[Guich]

You don't think that most racists and anti-Semites voted to leave the EU?

Isn't that rather like saying most members of the Suicide Squad are Burnley fans?

[Paul Waine]

But it won't paralyze the government Paul, which is what its doing.

??????

what won't paralyze the gov't? revoking Art 50?

I hope not................ but, what was all that stuff that was going on for a long time before the referendum was called?

[Lowbankclaret]

Worth mentioning as well the current tactic of "people just want it over"

The only way to stop this continuing to affect everyone for years is to revoke article 50, and more and more people are starting to realise that.

I have been watching Sky travel round the country, the thing I see is people position hardening on leave.

People claiming otherwise might get a shock if a vote is taken again.
There have been loads of people who now they have real info on the EU and how they behave have either swapped from remain or hardened to we really need to leave.
Now I accept it might not be the case.
However I feel on balance her deal will be voted down.
No Deal will be voted down.
We will ask for an extension. After that who the hell knows.

[Jakubclaret]

Another one who doesn’t live on the front line living it up in the high life, insulated from the impact of mass immigration, you never see working class people on shows from Sunderland ect debating the points, it’d strike more of a chord, instead we’ve got London mega rich lefties labelling leavers as racist, within his profession his livelihood is not threatened.

[Paul Waine]

You don't think that most racists and anti-Semites voted to leave the EU?

Don't get me wrong, Self was definitely trying to provoke a reaction, and Francois walked right into it, making a complete fool of himself in the process.

But Self was still right in what he said.

Is that what Self said? Can I claim my winnings, please?

I guess there are a number of possible interpretations of the Brexit vote. Yes, I know that "little England" is one of the claims of the more "excitable" remainers.

Isn't it equally plausible to make a case that the "leave" vote was a "lets trade and interact with all the world" and the opposite, "no, we want to stay just with the Europeans, the people we feel closest to - and some of us have our holiday homes there.... and our nannies come from some of the further reaches of the EU...."

I don't know about you, but our "intellectuals" (as I think they claim) don't show themselves to be very nice people.

[JohnMcGreal]

Is that what Self said? Can I claim my winnings, please?

I guess there are a number of possible interpretations of the Brexit vote. Yes, I know that "little England" is one of the claims of the more "excitable" remainers.

Isn't it equally plausible to make a case that the "leave" vote was a "lets trade and interact with all the world" and the opposite, "no, we want to stay just with the Europeans, the people we feel closest to - and some of us have our holiday homes there.... and our nannies come from some of the further reaches of the EU...."

I don't know about you, but our "intellectuals" (as I think they claim) don't show themselves to be very nice people.

Maybe you should watch the footage or read a transcript of what was said before commenting and making a judgement? Just a suggestion.

[Lowbankclaret]

Another one who doesn’t live on the front line living it up in the high life, insulated from the impact of mass immigration, you never see working class people on shows from Sunderland ect debating the points, it’d strike more of a chord, instead we’ve got London mega rich lefties labelling leavers as racist, within his profession his livelihood is not threatened.

Sky did a full programme on Brexit from Sunderland.
One from Hull, I think and another from Derby.

[Jakubclaret]

Sky did a full programme on Brexit from Sunderland.
One from Hull, I think and another from Derby.

Thanks when were the programmes broadcast? & did the programmes feature poor working class people & when i mean poor i mean breadline as a result of employment? I'd rather listen to that than this will self bloke.

[Lowbankclaret]

It was a couple of weeks ago, they have been going around the country doing them.
They do a survey around the town/city and then ask the 20/30 people in the live studio the same questions.

People from all backgrounds on there

[Lancasterclaret]

All good programs and the more opinions you get the better, but the underlying trend is More and more pro- remain each week.

I think you have to remember that stuff like the £350 million more the NHS worked in the 1st one. No chance people are going to fall for it a 2nd time.

And people are much more aware now. I suspect it would be an even bigger turnout, especially amongst those that don't normally bother.

But it's a risk for both leave and remain, and leave especially don't want to risk it.

[Paul Waine]

Maybe you should watch the footage or read a transcript of what was said before commenting and making a judgement? Just a suggestion.

Hi John, yes, I've listened now. I was correct with my prediction. Will Self was being very offensive and wrong with his statement about "ethnic nationalism." But, hey ho, Will's "a little" left wing, isn't he, so that's alright for him to be gratuitously offensive and then to repeat himself with a rather supercilious grin on his face.

[CrosspoolClarets]

That NHS thing - we do know, don’t we, that the NHS is actually receiving £384m per week more?

Does anybody seriously think that had the bus pledge not happened the NHS would be getting that cash?

So actually that pledge (had one of those folk been made PM, which they were not) DID put pressure on to fund it.

That aside though, I do think Leave would win again, with a landslide, but it would be too divisive.

[nil_desperandum]

That aside though, I do think Leave would win again, with a landslide, but it would be too divisive.

A landslide? Based on what?
If the Tories believed this then they'd go all out for it and call a Gen Election with an anti-EU agenda.
Problem is - that agenda went so badly last time and with a couple of million potential new voters to add to the mix they wouldn't risk it.
Incidentally all elections are by definition divisive but if it's a landslide for one side or the other then that's effectively the end of the division. The winner has a clear mandate, unlike the minority government that May purports to lead.

Edit: I've been checking the most current data. (A You Gov poll of almost 2,000 people taken last week )
To the question: Who would win a 2nd referendum? Only 6% think that "Leave" would DEFINITELY win, and a further 6% say that "Leave" would PROBABLY win. The rest think that it's either in the balance, or (30%) believe that "Remain" would either definitely or probably win.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/i ... -would-be/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[dsr]

A landslide? Based on:

1. The main plank of the Remain vote in a second referendum would be "look how nasty the EU are - they're enormously big bullies and we can't stand up to them". Not a vote winner.

2. And the corollary is "Britain is a small, ineffectual country that can't stand alone". Not a vote winner.

3. They have the argument "you, the people, got it wrong. We, the politicians, can put that right for you. We are politicians - trust us!" Not a vote winner.

4. And, of course, they can always borrow the Tory slogan from last general election - "strong and stable". Nothing good to say about their own side, just denigrating the alternative. How did that work?

I don't think there will be a landslide, but I think in a straight yes/no, Leave would win again. So that won't be offered. What the second referendum supporters would want the vote to be about, would be "Remain" or "Leave on May's deal". We wouldn't be offered a "no deal" because they wouldn't trust us not to vote for it. And I wouldn't like to guess which side would win, but the turnout would be much lower than the first referendum, which in the minds of the Remainers (who win either way) this would not matter - they would not recognise any lack of legitimacy in the vote.

[Lancasterclaret]

That aside though, I do think Leave would win again, with a landslide, but it would be too divisive.

With your track record, I'm putting the mortgage on the other way.

You been chatting to your golf club members again and ignoring everything else.