Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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JohnMcGreal
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by JohnMcGreal » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:41 am

Paul Waine wrote:Hi John, yes, I've listened now. I was correct with my prediction. Will Self was being very offensive and wrong with his statement about "ethnic nationalism." But, hey ho, Will's "a little" left wing, isn't he, so that's alright for him to be gratuitously offensive and then to repeat himself with a rather supercilious grin on his face.
Was he wrong when he said that most racists and anti-Semites probably voted to leave?

I gather that yourself and Crosspool found his comments offensive, as Francois did, but is that claim an incorrect one?

I didn't even think it was remotely controversial to say that the majority of racists out there most probably voted to leave.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:42 am

Same with you Dsr, as Mr UKIP (ex obviously), then you've spent a lot of time ignoring reality.

But this kind of stuff isn't going to be an issue, as long as the MPs who think like you and Crosspool on trade and stuff recognise that is a fight you don't have to have now. Leaving is the key.

Thing is, I'm not sure some of them are actually bright enough. You two have gamely stuck at it on here, but at least youv'e stuck at it. I get the feeling that the likes of Francois and Davies don't listen to anybody who doesn't agree with them, and they might be under the impression that the country is behind them.

I mean, if they only listen to Conservative member for instance they wouldn't have a scooby would they?

nil_desperandum
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:44 am

I've added the current You Gov Poll to my previous post above.
If it's anything like correct then the electorate totally disagree with you dsr.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:46 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:
I didn't even think it was remotely controversial to say that the majority of racists out there most probably voted to leave.
The majority no doubt did, but don't forget that there would be some in that category who wouldn't be able to find their way to the polling station - so not quite 100%

CombatClaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:06 am

Jakubclaret wrote:Another one who doesn’t live on the front line living it up in the high life, insulated from the impact of mass immigration.
Theresa May talked about EU nationals 'jumping the queue for work"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMd_swzgMtQ" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A brilliant clip for an immigrant who's supposedly taken work from the good honest British people.

"My first job was in the car wash, there was no queue to jump. My second job was washing dishes, there was no queue to jump..."

But yes it's all his fault people haven't got the life they wanted and see on TV. So easy to blame.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:12 am

CombatClaret wrote:Theresa May talked about EU nationals 'jumping the queue for work"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMd_swzgMtQ" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A brilliant clip for an immigrant who's supposedly taken work from the good honest British people.

"My first job was in the car wash, there was no queue to jump. My second job was washing dishes, there was no queue to jump..."

But yes it's all his fault people haven't got the life they wanted and see on TV. So easy to blame.
Good luck to the odd 1s that graft, you can always throw up rare examples, that's never been in dispute, i know some work bloody hard for pittance, & some of the english/british would refuse to do.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:21 am

nil_desperandum wrote:I've added the current You Gov Poll to my previous post above.
If it's anything like correct then the electorate totally disagree with you dsr.
So what? I have my ideas on what might happen. The majority don't agree with me. So what? In a horse race, it isn't compulsory to back the bookies' favourite.

Your poll, remember, is not about who people will vote for in the hypothetical second referendum. It's about who they think will win. Do you have an equivalent poll about who people thought would win the general election in 2017? I'm sure the bookies' favourite of Conservative majority would also win a public poll about who people thought would win. They were 47% to 25% ahead in the polls immediately after the election was called, remember.

And my point is that the Tories' disastrous campaign of that election "strong and stable", "don't trust the other side", "the other side would be worse", "I'm Theresa May - trust me", made a huge difference. I believe that a Remain campaign in a second referendum would be on the same lines and would fail.

On all these Brexit arguments over all the years, how many times have Remainers put a strong case for the wonderful things the EU does? Rarely. It's much more about the disastrous effect leaving would have (they believe), and the nasty way the EU is justified in treating us if we go. It didn't work for Theresa May, and I don't reckon it will work for Remain.
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Jakubclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:49 am

CombatClaret wrote:Theresa May talked about EU nationals 'jumping the queue for work"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMd_swzgMtQ" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A brilliant clip for an immigrant who's supposedly taken work from the good honest British people.

"My first job was in the car wash, there was no queue to jump. My second job was washing dishes, there was no queue to jump..."

But yes it's all his fault people haven't got the life they wanted and see on TV. So easy to blame.
Some do worker harder & probably will accept less pay & atrocious working conditions, i don't think we should be going carte blanche & throwing our own people to the lions to accommodate this, we need to find other ways without exploiting cheap labour, it's morally wrong.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:56 am

Jakubclaret wrote:Some do worker harder & probably will accept less pay & atrocious working conditions, i don't think we should be going carte blanche & throwing our own people to the lions to accommodate this, we need to find other ways without exploiting cheap labour, it's morally wrong.
But these issues are the UK's alone to deal with and already have the power to effect. The government sets the minimum wage and proper working conditions, they should also shut down any workplace that doesn't adhere to them.
The fault lies within our borders.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:01 am

CombatClaret wrote:But these issues are the UK's alone to deal with and already have the power to effect. The government sets the minimum wage and proper working conditions, they should also shut down any workplace that doesn't adhere to them.
In an ideal world I'd agree, unfortunately whilst we are in the EU the plentiful supply of cheap labour will be available ready to be exploited there's no appetite in Westminster to properly address this. The only logical course of action to prevent this is to leave the EU.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:16 am

Jakubclaret wrote:In an ideal world I'd agree, unfortunately whilst we are in the EU the plentiful supply of cheap labour will be available ready to be exploited there's no appetite in Westminster to properly address this. The only logical course of action to prevent this is to leave the EU.
I would argue the logical course of action, as you point out is for Westminster to properly address it. In this too you accept that it is completely within our power but we chose not to and rather pass the buck.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:45 am

Pretty clear Dsr that both sides have learnt from the 1st one. Leave know what works but have the disadvantage that a lot of it has been disproved. Remain have the advantage that they know what doesn't work.

For leave to win, they have to keep those voters thst turned out to give the govt a kicking rather than voting to leave/Remain AND replace the ones who have gone to the great big Brexit in the sky AND will be under a lot of pressure for what happens afterwards.

Your bluff and bluster is admirable, but you know as well as I do that a 2nd ref is bloody risky and for Brexiteers needs to be avoided at all costs
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CrosspoolClarets
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:11 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:Was he wrong when he said that most racists and anti-Semites probably voted to leave?

I gather that yourself and Crosspool found his comments offensive, as Francois did, but is that claim an incorrect one?

I didn't even think it was remotely controversial to say that the majority of racists out there most probably voted to leave.
I did say I was offended, but I suppose I wasn’t. I don’t tend to take offence with former heroin addicts and people like that, I’d be permenantly in offence if I did. It was sad, that’s all.

It was also factually incorrect. He did say “all” before reversing back a bit. There are high profile Labour MPs accused of antisemitism (I won’t name them obviously) who we know voted Remain. We all know Labour is the party with the bigger antisemite problem (Self highlighted racists AND antisemites). We all know Labour mainly voted to stay in the EU as a popular vote (though most Labour constituencies voted to leave). Logic would say that racist and antisemite views are not a factor (though judgement on the impact migrants have on communities and wages IS a legitimate factor but not a racial one).

The disappointing thing is that most on the liberal left cannot see why comments like those are unacceptable, so used are they to bitter sweeping statements about everybody more socially conservative (totally ignoring that most traditional blue collar workers tend to be socially conservative whilst being economically socialist).

CombatClaret wrote:I would argue the logical course of action, as you point out is for fWestminster to properly address it. In this too you accept that it is completely within our power but we chose not to and rather pass the buck.
I also agree that Westminster should do more and some tinkering was possible whilst staying in the EU. I feel that some of the current bunch of Tory Remainers have an ethos which is to drive down the costs of production as much as possible and push up profits (Osborne, Hammond etc). This is very wrong. Leaving the EU is though a necessary first step because the whole political culture needs to change, including the civil service, who are besotted with the EU way of doing things. Replacing our politicians is a necessary second step.

Slow thinkers like Self think this is all about nationalism, but it is actually about patriotism. Take WW2 as an example of one versus the other. Patriots identify with their country and value it. They have love and respect (including for the enemy). Nationalism is about fear and hate. Brexiteers feel our value of this spot of earth beneath our feet is being eroded because we are losing our sense of patriotism and community. That’s why, yes, we can control migration to a point, but that doesn’t solve the issue.

George Orwell wrote a famous essay on this stuff while Hitler was waging war on us, it was called The Lion and The Unicorn : Socialism and the English Genius.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:42 am

The line between patriotism and outline nationalism is pretty blurred at the best of times.

This is not the best of times.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:50 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I did say I was offended, but I suppose I wasn’t. I don’t tend to take offence with former heroin addicts and people like that, I’d be permenantly in offence if I did. It was sad, that’s all.

It was also factually incorrect. He did say “all” before reversing back a bit. There are high profile Labour MPs accused of antisemitism (I won’t name them obviously) who we know voted Remain. We all know Labour is the party with the bigger antisemite problem (Self highlighted racists AND antisemites). We all know Labour mainly voted to stay in the EU as a popular vote (though most Labour constituencies voted to leave). Logic would say that racist and antisemite views are not a factor (though judgement on the impact migrants have on communities and wages IS a legitimate factor but not a racial one).

The disappointing thing is that most on the liberal left cannot see why comments like those are unacceptable, so used are they to bitter sweeping statements about everybody more socially conservative (totally ignoring that most traditional blue collar workers tend to be socially conservative whilst being economically socialist).




I also agree that Westminster should do more and some tinkering was possible whilst staying in the EU. I feel that some of the current bunch of Tory Remainers have an ethos which is to drive down the costs of production as much as possible and push up profits (Osborne, Hammond etc). This is very wrong. Leaving the EU is though a necessary first step because the whole political culture needs to change, including the civil service, who are besotted with the EU way of doing things. Replacing our politicians is a necessary second step.

Slow thinkers like Self think this is all about nationalism, but it is actually about patriotism. Take WW2 as an example of one versus the other. Patriots identify with their country and value it. They have love and respect (including for the enemy). Nationalism is about fear and hate. Brexiteers feel our value of this spot of earth beneath our feet is being eroded because we are losing our sense of patriotism and community. That’s why, yes, we can control migration to a point, but that doesn’t solve the issue.

George Orwell wrote a famous essay on this stuff while Hitler was waging war on us, it was called The Lion and The Unicorn : Socialism and the English Genius.
Unacceptable because it’s true, I presume. We all know how much your side prefer a lie - it comes across in virtually every post you make on the topic.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:20 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Pretty clear Dsr that both sides have learnt from the 1st one. Leave know what works but have the disadvantage that a lot of it has been disproved. Remain have the advantage that they know what doesn't work.

For leave to win, they have to keep those voters thst turned out to give the govt a kicking rather than voting to leave/Remain AND replace the ones who have gone to the great big Brexit in the sky AND will be under a lot of pressure for what happens afterwards.

Your bluff and bluster is admirable, but you know as well as I do that a 2nd ref is bloody risky and for Brexiteers needs to be avoided at all costs
Agreed there’s a lot more information out there now, there is still a lot of false information and people still continue with project fear.
Food would be more expensive, Some will be cheaper, New Zealand lamb currently has a 45% tariff. So I don’t believe all what’s said by remain people. Yes some things might go up. So a new referendum would have to be fought in a slightly different way.

As a Brexit supporter, I SUPPORT a 2nd referendum. It would take away the We lost because of lies! As you all are saying we are now better informed. If leave still won which I think it might, Hopefully Remainers might accept the result in a better manner.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:04 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:Agreed there’s a lot more information out there now, there is still a lot of false information and people still continue with project fear.
Food would be more expensive, Some will be cheaper, New Zealand lamb currently has a 45% tariff. So I don’t believe all what’s said by remain people. Yes some things might go up. So a new referendum would have to be fought in a slightly different way.

As a Brexit supporter, I SUPPORT a 2nd referendum. It would take away the We lost because of lies! As you all are saying we are now better informed. If leave still won which I think it might, Hopefully Remainers might accept the result in a better manner.
There's a good illustration of how someone who seems well informed still doesn't appreciate all of the nuances.

New Zealand lamb does have a 45% tariff with the EU but that is only after a certain quota is exceeded, before that it is 0% tariff. That quota hasn't been exceeded for a number of years but you still see plenty of politicians and newspapers saying that NZ lamb will get cheaper.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:36 pm

aggi wrote:There's a good illustration of how someone who seems well informed still doesn't appreciate all of the nuances.

New Zealand lamb does have a 45% tariff with the EU but that is only after a certain quota is exceeded, before that it is 0% tariff. That quota hasn't been exceeded for a number of years but you still see plenty of politicians and newspapers saying that NZ lamb will get cheaper.
Hi aggi, I'm sure you are right about NZ lamb not exceeding its quota. Did you think it would do with a 45% tariff slapped on any extra?

But, the fact that it hasn't exceeded the quota isn't proof that food won't be cheaper. What if, let's say. NZ lamb is 20% cheaper than EU lamb before any tariff is imposed? Which would you choose to buy today, NZ lamb + 45% tariff - i.e. 25% higher price than EU lamb, or EU lamb which is 20% cheaper than NZ lamb?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by KateR » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:05 pm

aggi wrote:There's a good illustration of how someone who seems well informed still doesn't appreciate all of the nuances.

New Zealand lamb does have a 45% tariff with the EU but that is only after a certain quota is exceeded, before that it is 0% tariff. That quota hasn't been exceeded for a number of years but you still see plenty of politicians and newspapers saying that NZ lamb will get cheaper.
I and the family like lamb on a Sunday, I can not remember the last time I saw NZ lamb in any store, now I am not particularly looking for it but it was always what I used to look for and chose. I would welcome it back with open arms but am not saying what I have been eating for years is bad, but for some reason NZ lamb is in my memory and believe it was what my mother bought and recommended to me.

I don't think anyone food or even food group is a good reason to vote leave or stay, it is what is best all round for the country not individuals.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:51 pm

aggi wrote:There's a good illustration of how someone who seems well informed still doesn't appreciate all of the nuances.

New Zealand lamb does have a 45% tariff with the EU but that is only after a certain quota is exceeded, before that it is 0% tariff. That quota hasn't been exceeded for a number of years but you still see plenty of politicians and newspapers saying that NZ lamb will get cheaper.
True I didn’t know that , do you have link to that information??

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:53 pm

KateR wrote:I and the family like lamb on a Sunday, I can not remember the last time I saw NZ lamb in any store, now I am not particularly looking for it but it was always what I used to look for and chose. I would welcome it back with open arms but am not saying what I have been eating for years is bad, but for some reason NZ lamb is in my memory and believe it was what my mother bought and recommended to me.

I don't think anyone food or even food group is a good reason to vote leave or stay, it is what is best all round for the country not individuals.
There was some in Padiham Tesco a few weeks ago, that’s what made me think about it.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:01 pm

Defo some up here, and clearly marked as New Zealand Lamb as well.

I've attempted to makes sense of the tariffs, and its hard work.

I wouldn't want to make the sort of calls politicians are fond of making on cheaper food prices based on what I've read though. Its (surprise!) not as simple as that.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:07 pm

Did some google work.
NZ can export 228,000 tonnes of sheep and goat meat at a Zero tariff. They used about 67% of that last year.
Apparently we use 40% of what they ship.

Welsh farmers are fearing going bust with cheap imports of lamb as they export 85% of their meat to the EU and without a deal they would have a 12% tariff put on their meat.

I have no idea how that works but it’s in articles, I have found just now.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:10 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-38831023" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farmin ... eat-access" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So basically there are articles where everyone fears it’s going to be worse for them, they cannot all be right.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:16 pm

I find the whole lamb thing strange anyway.

I buy mine from smallholding near the Kettledrum and once a year I buy a whole lamb from a farm in Bacup.

All that travelling around the world kinda does not make much sense to me, but there must be a reason for it.

A full lamb cost us £110.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:21 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:I find the whole lamb thing strange anyway.
I buy mine from smallholding near the Kettledrum and once a year I buy a whole lamb from a farm in Bacup.
All that travelling around the world kinda does not make much sense to me, but there must be a reason for it.
A full lamb cost us £110.
This sounds like something Boris Johnson would say.
I'm sure it will resonate with Mum of two kids with a £50 a week food budget who doesn't have a lamb sized freezer going spare.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:29 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:I find the whole lamb thing strange anyway.

I buy mine from smallholding near the Kettledrum and once a year I buy a whole lamb from a farm in Bacup.

All that travelling around the world kinda does not make much sense to me, but there must be a reason for it.

A full lamb cost us £110.
It's very strange, we will be ok regardless, i think we'll start to get Australian beef it's hormone treated I've heard some scaremongering attached to this regarding if it's consumer safe but nevertheless it's excellent quality some people claim, everything will fall into place & everything will sort itself out, it's like anything new you sometimes experience teething problems but more often than not it's very short lived.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:36 pm

Jakubclaret wrote: i think we'll start to get Australian beef
67% of our beef imports come from Ireland next door.
Brexit answer: "Let's get it from the other side of the world instead."

I'm sure that will be cheaper and easier for everyone.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:40 pm

CombatClaret wrote:67% of our beef imports come from Ireland next door.
Brexit answer: let's get it from the other side of the world instead.

I'm sure that will be cheaper and easier for everyone.
67% & the other 33%? I'm sure there will be good reasons for sourcing products elsewhere, ultimately the customers decide really because if things become too expensive products don't sell.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:48 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:67% & the other 33%?
Netherlands, Poland & German mostly :lol: :lol:

So 91% of our Fresh & Frozen beef imports are from the EU.
9% is non EU.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:59 pm

Beef can be cheaper even from across the world - Argentinian beef is an example. They are beginning to embrace technology so their costs are coming down even further.

This is a massive threat to our farmers though. I’m not a fan of zero tariffs on things we make a lot of, but nor am a fan of E.U. quotas where under the withdrawal agreement they will be free to do all kinds of tinkering (tariffs too) without us having a vote, veto nor even negotiating seats.

Quota 481 is tariff-free and allows export of grain-fed beef reared on feed lots. This is set at 48,200 tonnes/year from the global market. Quota 593 is for high quality beef and has a 20% tariff. This is 66,000 tonnes I think. The U.K. produces about 77,000 tonnes per year.

It’s our exposure on this kind of thing why I would be tempted to go for “no deal” and then negotiate FTAs from a baseline of our own tariffs and quotas (though it isn’t that simple, there are massive pros and cons across many industries so I have to be honest and say that a firm decision could only be done when seeing the full analysis).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:00 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi aggi, I'm sure you are right about NZ lamb not exceeding its quota. Did you think it would do with a 45% tariff slapped on any extra?

But, the fact that it hasn't exceeded the quota isn't proof that food won't be cheaper. What if, let's say. NZ lamb is 20% cheaper than EU lamb before any tariff is imposed? Which would you choose to buy today, NZ lamb + 45% tariff - i.e. 25% higher price than EU lamb, or EU lamb which is 20% cheaper than NZ lamb?
As lowbank has posted, they're quite a way under the quota so it's not as if they're hitting the limit and stopping, it's all zero at the moment so your example doesn't really apply.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:08 pm

Labours Brexit position explained perfectly.

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1 ... 1078932480" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:14 pm

CombatClaret wrote:This sounds like something Boris Johnson would say.
I'm sure it will resonate with Mum of two kids with a £50 a week food budget who doesn't have a lamb sized freezer going spare.
She is probably not going to buy lamb anyway. It will be too expensive.
CHeapest way to buy it is a full lamb and butchered it takes about a drawer and a half of a freezer.
Having grown up helping on farms , perhaps I have a different way of looking at things .

Last week I bought a full fillet. Just short of £60. Cut into very thick steaks it did 10 portions and enough for a stir fry for two.
£5 a portion , add some chips and veg and you have one of the best meals for the same as a macdonalds meal.
In fact we are having fillet for tea.

I know that’s no consolation for those on very limited resources, there are ways they can make their resources go further.
Like a 25kg sack of spuds for £8.50, which we also buy.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:27 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:I know that’s no consolation for those on very limited resources, there are ways they can make their resources go further.
Like a 25kg sack of spuds for £8.50, which we also buy.
Still a problem you are not seeing is when money comes in weekly/monthly in small amounts you can't bulk buy.

Studies have repeatedly shown the richer you are the easier it is to save money.

Why the poor pay more for toilet paper — and just about everything else - Washington Post
https://tinyurl.com/yxooepqx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Greatest grocery-store bargains are unattainable for poor shoppers
https://www.businessinsider.com/retail- ... oor-2016-3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Poverty premium: why it costs so much more to be poor
https://www.theguardian.com/public-lead ... s-councils" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is why event tiny price rises will hit the poor hardest.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:09 pm

CombatClaret wrote:Still a problem you are not seeing is when money comes in weekly/monthly in small amounts you can't bulk buy.

Studies have repeatedly shown the richer you are the easier it is to save money.

Why the poor pay more for toilet paper — and just about everything else - Washington Post
https://tinyurl.com/yxooepqx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Greatest grocery-store bargains are unattainable for poor shoppers
https://www.businessinsider.com/retail- ... oor-2016-3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Poverty premium: why it costs so much more to be poor
https://www.theguardian.com/public-lead ... s-councils" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is why event tiny price rises will hit the poor hardest.

Sorry, I do agree.
Please in no way think I think people on low incomes can do much to improve their lot.
I have had several of friends in that position.

Still do. I normally buy a bit of extra meat so I can give them some.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by South West Claret. » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:43 am

BREAKING NEWS

Today,on the 12th March 2019 Theresa May will attempt , via clever word play, to persuade MPs to support her Withdrawal Deal" for a second time.Two things stand out.

EXTRACT

The motion defines the first new document as “the legally binding joint instrument” relating to the WA that “reduces the risk that the UK could be deliberately held in the Northern Ireland backstop indefinitely and commits the UK and EU to work to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by December 2020”.

-------------------------------

Reducing the risk is by no means the same as eliminating the risk.The risk must logically remain.

EXTRACT

First, a joint instrument with comparable legal weight to the withdrawal agreement will guarantee that the EU cannot act with the intent of applying the backstop indefinitely. If they do, it can be challenged through arbitration and if they are found to be in breach the UK can suspend the backstop.

---------------------------------

The first sentence is clearly contradicted by the second. The second states that the EU can indeed act with the intent of applying the backstop indefinitely.The joint instrument therefore guarantees nothing.The idea that because the UK can question the "good intent " of the EU and force arbitration that this automatically ensures it will obtain a favourable judgement allowing the suspension of the backstop is nonsensical. Also what of the Good Friday agreement if the suspension of the backstop occurs without any alternative means being available to ensure no hard border appears between N. Ireland and the Republic.

To be continued.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:50 am

As some of us have been saying for a while now, it all depends on whether the ERG want Brexit, or do they gamble on getting the "No Deal" Brexit despite only having about 70 odd MPs.

It would be a massive climbdown for them, because these changes are cosmetic at best, but it does give them a chance to climb down if they decide to take it.

Common sense would suggest they would vote for the deal, but when has Brexit been about common sense?

And this doesn't end this, this will be going on for at least a generation.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by taio » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:12 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:As some of us have been saying for a while now, it all depends on whether the ERG want Brexit, or do they gamble on getting the "No Deal" Brexit despite only having about 70 odd MPs.

It would be a massive climbdown for them, because these changes are cosmetic at best, but it does give them a chance to climb down if they decide to take it.

Common sense would suggest they would vote for the deal, but when has Brexit been about common sense?

And this doesn't end this, this will be going on for at least a generation.
We await the detail and legal interpretation from Cox. If it is confirmed as legally binding not sure it can be described as cosmetic at best. If it is, it will get smashed in HoC.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:16 am

We await the detail and legal interpretation from Cox. If it is confirmed as legally binding not sure it can be described as cosmetic at best. If it is, it will get smashed in HoC.
I completely agree with you, but the backstop withdrawal agreement hasn't changed at all, its the stuff around it that has changed. That does suggest that its not enough for the ERG and I do wonder why Cox isn't already on the airwaves saying its not legally binding.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:27 am

I keep changing my mind as to whether this deal is good enough to vote for if I was an MP, I personally prefer the Malthouse Compromise (the money for a standstill and then the trade deal kicking in) but given the PM has removed other options from the table (by delaying) and given that parliament has taken no deal off the table, I see little option but to vote for her deal now there is a bit of extra reassurance.

But.....I would make it conditional on her resignation before the summer and a new leader before conference season. If she refuses, and I were a Tory, I would vote to bring down the government and try to get a new leader and new mandate from the public - framed (If I were a Tory strategist) as free-trading independence versus Marxist subservience.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:30 am

framed (If I were a Tory strategist) as free-trading independence versus Marxist subservience.
You know what the worst thing about that is?

That it might actually work, which sums up where we are as a country far better than anything else that has been said.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:27 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:As some of us have been saying for a while now, it all depends on whether the ERG want Brexit, or do they gamble on getting the "No Deal" Brexit despite only having about 70 odd MPs.

It would be a massive climbdown for them, because these changes are cosmetic at best, but it does give them a chance to climb down if they decide to take it.

Common sense would suggest they would vote for the deal, but when has Brexit been about common sense?

And this doesn't end this, this will be going on for at least a generation.
What the ERG wants is Brexit. What they don't want is for all the rules to still apply and the costs to still apply and the EU to still have control, but only the name is changed.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:30 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:I completely agree with you, but the backstop withdrawal agreement hasn't changed at all, its the stuff around it that has changed. That does suggest that its not enough for the ERG and I do wonder why Cox isn't already on the airwaves saying its not legally binding.
Jon Snow (of Channel 4 news) is tweeting that there is a rumour that Cox advised that the new agreement doesn't change anything but has been asked to think again and come up with a different answer. Although Cox has tweetwd the single word 'b0llox' in response.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:34 am

dsr wrote:What the ERG wants is Brexit. What they don't want is for all the rules to still apply and the costs to still apply and the EU to still have control, but only the name is changed.
Which is exactly what they'll get if we negotiate a trade deal before the end of the transition period. And given that the ERG has apparently produced a document that proves technology can solve the NI border issue I don't see why they think that the backstop will ever apply.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:40 am

For those who are worried about being locked into a backstop deal in perpetuity, what is the advantage to the EU for that?

Also, Leavers keep saying the Irish border isn't an issue, there's a technological solution, etc. If you believe that then why are you worried about the backstop if we already have a solution?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:43 am

Mogg on the radio said that if the DUP are happy with it, then so probably will the ERG be.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Billy Balfour » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:45 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:As some of us have been saying for a while now, it all depends on whether the ERG want Brexit, or do they gamble on getting the "No Deal" Brexit despite only having about 70 odd MPs.
I think they have fewer than that when it comes to 'No Deal'. They are hardly a coherent group. Like you say though - for them it's either this deal or Wednesday's vote on 'No Deal' and we all know that there's no way the HoC will vote to throw the UK economy over The White Cliffs of Dover.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:04 am

The only positive I can say for MPs is that at least they are aware of the dangers of a "No Deal", even if large swathes of the population of the UK remain blissfully ignorant (fair enough) or blissfully telling everyone who told them it was a bad idea to do one (not so fair enough)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by JohnMcGreal » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:14 am

It will be fascinating to see how many of those MPs who felt they couldn't support the withdrawal agreement two months ago end up performing a massive U turn by voting for the exact same withdrawal agreement tonight.
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