Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

Burnley Ace · Post by **Burnley Ace** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:23 am

Kier Stammer was a bit evasive this morning, it would appear that the backstop is a bit of a red herring for Labour. They won’t support it because we are out of the Customs Union (staying in one means no independent trade policy and ECJ control) and out of Single Market ( staying in would mean payments and free movement)

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:31 am

If I was voting today I would take a peg for my nose and vote for the deal. Its not a proper brexit at this stage and unless there is a new pm very soon it will never be.

The undemocratic alliance of remainer mps, unelected lords, the EC and our civil service has made sure since 23 june 2016 that we never had a hope of getting a proper brexit.

The price from the DUP and the ERG for voting this crap though should be that May goes before the trade negotiations start.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:32 am

All waiting for Cox

If you are of the persuasion that this deal gives us clarity and a way out of this mess (ie like me!) then don't read twitter posts from experts in EU and UK laws on this.

Put it one way, if Coxs advice changes, then he's going against the grain (which can't be good)

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:36 am

Deal with them? Would you fly on a Boeing 747 with a rusty-hinged garden shed door as a stop-gap for an emergency exit? No. Right then...

Hard Brexit and No Deal.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:36 am

He will say that the risk has been reduced and that it comes down to a political judgement for each and every mp.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:40 am

Cox making statement at 12:30pm

Bordeauxclaret · Post by **Bordeauxclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:44 am

Statement has been leaked early.

“They’ve rebadged it you fool”

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:46 am

Check out my ebay store (Devils_Advocate_666) but hurry as stocks are running low

Comes in XXXL and if you buy 20 you get a free case of Carling Black Label

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:47 am

if the back doesn't say "patriot", then its not worth it.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:57 am

Ive got a Polish guy who will do word printing at 30p per letter. Thought I was gonna lose him but looks like he might be able to stay on now

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:00 am

It would be worth taking as loss if you sold at least one with "Patriot" on the back, but in Polish.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:02 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:It would be worth taking as loss if you sold at least one with "Patriot" on the back, but in Polish.

It might have to be as his English isn't very good but he's cheap and works hard

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:07 am

Cox is going to say "legal advice unchanged" according to the Sun westminster correspondent.

****.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:10 am

Confirmed now

Double ****

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:16 am

Well that should signal the end of the May deal, a vote to reject no deal and a request to the EU for an extension.

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:56 am

Pstotto wrote:Deal with them? Would you fly on a Boeing 747 with a rusty-hinged garden shed door as a stop-gap for an emergency exit? No. Right then...

Hard Brexit and No Deal.

And when the economy tanks - they'll be no money to pay for any benefits you might be claiming.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:09 pm

martin_p wrote:Well that should signal the end of the May deal, a vote to reject no deal and a request to the EU for an extension.

Although there have been whispers that May may postpone the subsequent votes if this deal doesn't go through ...

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:09 pm

Anyway, I've more chance of passing a gold turd than May's deal has of passing through Parliament.

I can't see the govt surviving, in its current form, beyond Thursday.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:10 pm

The DUP/ERG need to consider the following.

No deal being ruled out tomorrow so the EU will probably water down what it agreed yesterday. Also, in the trade discussions the EU will be wanting us in a customs union etc but we have a chance of getting Canada plus if the deal goes through. The former is where we will end up if the HOC gets it way at best.

As risky as it it they ought to approve the latest deal.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:25 pm

summitclaret wrote:The DUP/ERG need to consider the following.

No deal being ruled out tomorrow so the EU will probably water down what it agreed yesterday. Also, in the trade discussions the EU will be wanting us in a customs union etc but we have a chance of getting Canada plus if the deal goes through. The former is where we will end up if the HOC gets it way at best.

As risky as it it they ought to approve the latest deal.

What evidence is there based on the last two years that the EU will offer any sort of sensible deal? This deal is wildly expensive even without the nonsensical backstop. There comes a point in negotiations when you have to accept that the other side will not play, so the deal is off.

If the EU were to be willing to offer Canada plus, then they will still be willing after we have left. And if they aren't, then there's no point staying.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:26 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:And when the economy tanks - they'll be no money to pay for any benefits you might be claiming.

If the economy is so fragile that average 3% tariffs will kill it, then we need to join the Euro in a hurry. An exchange rate fluctuation of more than 3% would be disastrous. Presumably.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:28 pm

They aren't going to agree a sensible deal. The UK is concerned about nothing but money, even though the Brexit vote was more about politics; the EU is concerned about nothing but politics, even though it was originally set up to be about money. The two sides have entirely different ambitions - the UK wants free trade, the EU wants to punish the UK for leaving - and so they will never agree unless one side is willing to pay a ridiculous price. That is what Theresa May is trying to do - to persuade the MPs to pay a price so ridiculous that even Remainers balk at it.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:38 pm

Assuming that the people want a "No Deal", the House of Parliament does not.

May has to follow what she agreed, and if (I still think it has a good chance of going through) tonights vote failed, then there will be a vote on "No Deal" to be taken completely off the table the next day.

The the clarity is there - No mays deal, but no "No Deal" either.

Who knows what happens next?

dpinsussex · Post by **dpinsussex** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:45 pm

The whole thing is a farce.

Let's just have a deal and get on with it.

Sick and tired of all the political bickering. This is all about political gesturing and not doing what the people (unfortunately) voted for.

taio · Post by **taio** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:50 pm

Feels very likely that May's deal won't be approved, no deal will be voted against tomorrow and on Thursday parliament will agree to pursue delaying brexit via extension of Aricle 50 which is what some people predicted on here months ago.

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:53 pm

dpinsussex wrote:The whole thing is a farce.

Let's just have a deal and get on with it.

I agree. I'm sick of all the uncertainty.

BTW: As for 'no deal'. It's reckoned that there are only a handful in the ERG who actually want it.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:53 pm

What will be the effect of voting to say No Deal can't happen? Bearing in mind it's the default position.

Will it mean that on 29th March, the Prime Minister has to sign literally anything the EU puts before her (or him), no matter what?

Or will it be like voting for the rain to stop because the roof's leaking?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:54 pm

But the key then becomes for how long?

I think most of the Brexiteers/remainers on here want it for long enough to arrange everything to make it as seamless as possible (brexiteers and remainers) with the added advantage that it might get cancelled altogether (by GE or another vote)(remainers only obviously!)

One thing that I heard this morning from the DUP is that they don't fear a "No Deal", for reasons that don't really stack up. If they don't fear a "No Deal" and don't like this one, then its relying on some Lab MPs and some ERG members to pass.

But it comes down to just how far people are willing to climb down to get Brexit. This deal is Brexit. its time that those who wanted it realised it and voted for it.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:58 pm

dsr wrote:What will be the effect of voting to say No Deal can't happen? Bearing in mind it's the default position.

Will it mean that on 29th March, the Prime Minister has to sign literally anything the EU puts before her (or him), no matter what?

Or will it be like voting for the rain to stop because the roof's leaking?

The effect is that it will trigger the vote for an extension to Article 50. If MPs vote FOR no deal then the vote on extending article 50 doesn't need to happen as we'll just leave with no deal on 29th. Of course the EU have to agree to an extension if that's what parliament wants, The fact parliament voted against no deal won't stop it happening if the EU say no to the extension.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:58 pm

What will be the effect of voting to say No Deal can't happen? Bearing in mind it's the default position.

Thats the rub isn't it?

Logically, a postponement of Article 50 I think.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:59 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:I agree. I'm sick of all the uncertainty.

BTW: As for 'no deal'. It's reckoned that there are only a handful in the ERG who actually want it.

There will be more than a handful in the ERG if the alternative is worse than a no deal, I'm in agreement that there's too much messing about, some strong asserted leadership wouldn't go amiss we need to have the courage of our convictions & if it's a no deal so be it, better than being screwed with a bad deal.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:03 pm

"Courage of our convictions" doesn't solve any problem relating to a "No Deal".

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:05 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Thats the rub isn't it?

Logically, a postponement of Article 50 I think.

But then we're back to the question of whether we can. Are we not going to finish up with a position where the PM will say we want to extend Article 50, and the EU will say how many arms and legs it's going to cost, and the PM says that's too much, and the EU says your House of Commons gave you a blank cheque?

Every other PM in history would resign if they lost this stupid vote tonight. Will May? What happens if she does? Can anyone command a majority in the House? What happens on March 29th if the House has been dissolved? If a Remain Tory gets the job and then loses the leadership election to a Brexit Tory, what happens next?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:06 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:"Courage of our convictions" doesn't solve any problem relating to a "No Deal".

That depends on your convictions. You're convinced that the country is in Dickie's meadow without free (but expensive) trade with the EU. Other people aren't.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:08 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:"Courage of our convictions" doesn't solve any problem relating to a "No Deal".

It does if the alternative is not satisfactory, some people aren't really bothered about a no deal & will manage & adapt to the circumstances in hand, it's called resilience & having a spinal column.

Erasmus · Post by **Erasmus** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:13 pm

I think the DUP have an agenda of their own. They support the idea of leaving the EU because it brings a greater degree of separation between Northern Ireland and the Republic, which suits them very well.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:14 pm

ERG say they cannot recommend voting for the deal.

dpinsussex · Post by **dpinsussex** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:19 pm

If there is a deal to allow a seamless exit, this will never happen as too many politicians have their own personal agenda rather than that of the will of the country.
It should be this deal or no deal.

I honestly dont believe that any PM would get Brexit through irrespective of their politics.

This is a compromise with the EU and suits nobody. But people wanted to leave and that's the best we are getting.

MPs do the country a favour and put us all out of our misery and do what you are paid to do. Represent your constituents and represent your country.

dpinsussex · Post by **dpinsussex** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:20 pm

Erasmus wrote:I think the DUP have an agenda of their own. They support the idea of leaving the EU because it brings a greater degree of separation between Northern Ireland and the Republic, which suits them very well.

DUP are kn obs - sorry cant be any more inciteful than that

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:27 pm

dpinsussex wrote:If there is a deal to allow a seamless exit, this will never happen as too many politicians have their own personal agenda rather than that of the will of the country.
It should be this deal or no deal.

I honestly dont believe that any PM would get Brexit through irrespective of their politics.

This is a compromise with the EU and suits nobody. But people wanted to leave and that's the best we are getting.

MPs do the country a favour and put us all out of our misery and do what you are paid to do. Represent your constituents and represent your country.

Good post, we are institutionalised to the EU, it's a marriage the majority don't really want but for some strange reason it's impossible to ask for or to get a proper divorce.

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:28 pm

The whole nation is being held to ransom by the DUP and the Good Friday Agreement which has failed anyway and been superseded. I think if there is a People's Vote is for England, just a vote in England, for our nation to dump N.I. out of the Union.

They have to accept that R.O.I. is a foreign country in the EU. The Irish Backstop fudge is cake-and-eat-it baloney, cat-flap security AND the EU and OUR GOVERNMENT have ACTUALLY CONSIDERED IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is this a parallel universe of the utterly demented?????? And not just this, what about the cultural directive????? Stormzy for P.M.?

It's got to be a two-nation United Republic and a three-nation UK.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:34 pm

A very angry Tory MP (Charles Walker) on the radio right now saying the only acceptable path forward if May's deal fails this evening is a general election. Would you prefer this, or a second referendum?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:39 pm

AndrewJB wrote:A very angry Tory MP (Charles Walker) on the radio right now saying the only acceptable path forward if May's deal fails this evening is a general election. Would you prefer this, or a second referendum?

Too many implications to judge it by. Except that if we have a general election, then we also (presumably) have a "no deal" because there's no-one to sign a deal in the interim.

But the problem is, the MPs have evidently decided that they don't like the referendum result and they don't want to fulfil their election promises, so they're going to go round again. How many times can they do this? And if we have a general election quickly, then the Tory leader will be elected by MPs and not the membership as a whole - and the MPs don't like the membership as a whole. And a second referendum would be loaded - the question would be "Remain" or "Leave on May's terms". They wouldn't put "no deal" on the paper.

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:44 pm

Charles Walker is being political and deliberately saying rubbish.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:44 pm

What purpose does a GE serve though?

Probably going to be another hung parliament, and we are still stuck.

if he's so keen on a vote, then there is a rather more obvious way out of this

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:47 pm

It does if the alternative is not satisfactory, some people aren't really bothered about a no deal & will manage & adapt to the circumstances in hand, it's called resilience & having a spinal column.

Meaningless words Jakub, thats all that is I'm afraid

That depends on your convictions. You're convinced that the country is in Dickie's meadow without free (but expensive) trade with the EU. Other people aren't.

Nothing to do with my convictions, its simple reality. it will take time to sort out the trade issues and other things with the EU. Dumping it all overnight and doing damage to both sides solves nothing.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:49 pm

dsr wrote:Too many implications to judge it by. Except that if we have a general election, then we also (presumably) have a "no deal" because there's no-one to sign a deal in the interim.

Well no, we’d have to get a suitable extension to Article 50 to allow time for an election.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:50 pm

GE. Another ref would be totally ridiculous unless it had a simple yes or no to the question do to you accept the deal negotiated on the 11 march 2019 with the EU. I.E. no remaun option.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:50 pm

Geoffrey Cox nails the issue perfectly

"The enemy facing this country is the dangerous over-simplification of the complexity of the problems we face."

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:51 pm

dsr wrote:But then we're back to the question of whether we can. Are we not going to finish up with a position where the PM will say we want to extend Article 50, and the EU will say how many arms and legs it's going to cost, and the PM says that's too much, and the EU says your House of Commons gave you a blank cheque?

The EU might name a high price for any extension of article 50. The UK's participation in the new European elections will almost certainly be one of them. They might not accept an extension request at all. It's hard to predict what will happen if it comes to us requiring an extension.

We aren't powerless, though. We have the legal right to unilaterally withdraw article 50 at any point before the 29th of March.