Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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Lancasterclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:51 pm

GE solves nothing summit

And you can't pretend that the 51.7% have all the rights to a vote either. Thats not democratic in the slightest.

My view is this deal is the only chance for a Brexit that might work for all. If it doesn't pass, then I'm backing anything that stops a "No Deal"

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:53 pm

summitclaret wrote:GE. Another ref would be totally ridiculous unless it had a simple yes or no to the question do to you accept the deal negotiated on the 11 march 2019 with the EU. I.E. no remaun option.
Or alternatively, it’d be totally ridiculous if it didn’t have a remain option.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dpinsussex » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:59 pm

At least May is trying to deliver Brexit (and respecting the peoples vote) which is more than can be said for most politicians.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:01 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:GE solves nothing summit

And you can't pretend that the 51.7% have all the rights to a vote either. Thats not democratic in the slightest.

My view is this deal is the only chance for a Brexit that might work for all. If it doesn't pass, then I'm backing anything that stops a "No Deal"
A deal that will satisfy the most ardent Remainer, cannot satisfy the most ardent Brexiter. It's like trying to broker a deal that will satisfy people who like Harold Wilson's government and people who like Margaret Thatcher's. It isn't going to happen.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:09 pm

According to Katya Adler of the BBC, the EU has an end date for the backstop up it's sleeve, (she said this on brexitcast podcast) i can see more concessions at the EU summit and it will go through on the third attempt towards the end of the month.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:11 pm

But it does Dsr

I accept the result of the referendum, and accept this as a basis of a deal to leave the EU. As an ardent remainer, then what else can I do?

You know a "No Deal" will adversely affect the country and you should back it as the withdrawal agreement and fight for an FTA after its over.

You have to understand that this is a compromise agreement, the dream brexit was a fantasy and the vast majority realise that.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:25 pm

Tonight’s vote will be closer than the last one. A number of Tory Brexiteers that voted against last time have changed their minds. But even if the ERG and DUP abstain rather than vote against I still can’t see how May can get the numbers to get her deal through.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:25 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Meaningless words Jakub, thats all that is I'm afraid



Nothing to do with my convictions, its simple reality. it will take time to sort out the trade issues and other things with the EU. Dumping it all overnight and doing damage to both sides solves nothing.
I didn't expect it to happen overnight, but to be fair it's been going on over 2yrs for all these things to have been sorted. The simple reality is if it's no deal which is my preferred choice I won't be bothered & I don't think I will be alone in that mindset. I've got the ability to adapt & the speed of thought not to be affected by it, that's where we differ.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Billy Balfour » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:27 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:My view is this deal is the only chance for a Brexit that might work for all. If it doesn't pass, then I'm backing anything that stops a "No Deal"
Same here.

I don't think there will be a GE either. It would be a Brexit GE and there are too many MPs with slender majorities. Also, what will the Tories fight on. No deal, May's deal or some disingenuous cockeyed deal that EU will never approve?

Promises like 'Brexit will be easy, and have no downsides' and 'Our free trade agreements we will be the easiest thing in human history' will no longer wash with the centre ground (public) - and it's the centre ground where GE are won. I think we would end up with another hung Parliament, but it could be one where the Tories are the opposition. Will they risk it?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:31 pm

I've got the ability to adapt & the speed of thought not to be affected by it, that's where we differ.
Its not about your backbone, or your ability Jakub. Its about the businesses and economy which won't be able to adapt overnight. The main reason for that? A refusal of people to accept the reality of a "No Deal" Brexit.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:36 pm

Anyone listening to this debate, with Mays voice dying quicker than her deal would have to have a heart of stone not to feel some sympathy for her.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:37 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Its not about your backbone, or your ability Jakub. Its about the businesses and economy which won't be able to adapt overnight. The main reason for that? A refusal of people to accept the reality of a "No Deal" Brexit.
There's been over a 2yr timespan to prepare for all eventualities, if businesses are caught cold by any outcome they deserve no sympathy. I think you are seriously underestimating people's capabilities to further your own agenda.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:39 pm

I think you are doing what you always do, and ignoring reality.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:40 pm

dsr wrote: Every other PM in history would resign if they lost this stupid vote tonight. Will May? What happens if she does? Can anyone command a majority in the House? What happens on March 29th if the House has been dissolved? If a Remain Tory gets the job and then loses the leadership election to a Brexit Tory, what happens next?
You make a very persuasive argument for putting all this to the people, since it is clear that Parliament will be unable to resolve this, and a change of PM won't do anything to change the mathematics in the House of Commons.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Billy Balfour » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:41 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:There's been over a 2yr timespan to prepare for all eventualities, if businesses are caught cold by any outcome they deserve no sympathy.
And what about the jobs losses and cuts in services that will surely follow - do they deserve it too?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:45 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I think you are doing what you always do, and ignoring reality.
That's what I embrace & accept reality. The reality will benefit some & maybe not others, I don't share your constant pessimistic attitude & I see potential positivity if the MPs reject the deal which I hope they will despite prolonging.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Pstotto » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:45 pm

Only the Chinese really understand Charles Taylor's comment, if you say it in Chinglish you'll know a bit better, in other words it's a w**nk idea.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:48 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:And what about the jobs losses and cuts in services that will surely follow - do they deserve it too?
Can you 100% guarantee this will happen? I expect you can in the same manner not so long ago it was the favourite thing to believe that aviation would be grounded.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Billy Balfour » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:55 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Can you 100% guarantee this will happen?
Hang on, I'm wrong. I'm now a 'no deal' Believer. No deal will be a great bunch of lads - it will lead the UK into a new golden age. There, Jakub. You've convinced me, but I first had to purge my brain of all rationality. But still, it's worth it.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:15 pm

dsr wrote:A deal that will satisfy the most ardent Remainer, cannot satisfy the most ardent Brexiter. It's like trying to broker a deal that will satisfy people who like Harold Wilson's government and people who like Margaret Thatcher's. It isn't going to happen.
That's fine. Given the slim margin of victory for Leave I wouldn't expect a deal that satisfies the most ardent Remainer or Brexiter to be on the table.

The issue is that May started off by being panicked by the ERG and tried to placate them by going full steam ahead with a fairly hard Brexit. She's now discovering that she can't get anything that will keep them happy but also hasn't got the votes in the middle ground.

Like Lancaster, I voted Remain, I don't particularly want to leave but if we are then so be it. However, I don't buy that there's a mandate for No Deal, any more than there is for Remain. As such, that leaves May's deal which is a bit shitty and no-one is particularly happy with it but it's the only one that's going to get the job done.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:17 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:I've got the ability to adapt & the speed of thought not to be affected by it, that's where we differ.
This however is my favourite line in this whole thread.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:20 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Can you 100% guarantee this will happen? I expect you can in the same manner not so long ago it was the favourite thing to believe that aviation would be grounded.
Neither side can guarantee much of anything, but they won't admit it.

Job losses will happen if we are in or out, there could be more than if we were in that's the main difference, but they can't provide proof either way.

We've had cuts in services for the last 8-9 years, but they'll blame that on Brexit too.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by JohnMcGreal » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:24 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:We've had cuts in services for the last 8-9 years, but they'll blame that on Brexit too.
Nope. They'll blame it on the conservative-led government who inflicted those cuts on already struggling communities. They'll blame the same shower of incompetent bastards that inflicted this Brexit crisis on the country.

They should be out of power for a generation after all of this. They're not fit to govern.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:28 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:Nope. They'll blame it on the conservative-led government who inflicted those cuts on already struggling communities. They'll blame the same shower of incompetent bastards that inflicted this Brexit crisis on the country.

They should be out of power for a generation after all of this. They're not fit to govern.
That's generally how it works isn't it?
We keep one party out for a decade or so because they're deemed not fit to govern.
Then when the then current incumbents are deemed not fit to govern we get all misty eyed about the opposition and vote them back in before realising they're also rubbish.
Basically a merry go round...

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Billy Balfour » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:37 pm

I'll make an effort and answer Jakubs '100% guarantee' in a more conciliatory manner.

Nobody can 100% guarantee anything when it come to economics and politics, however, I know where will be job loses in Lancashire because we have plans to relocate to an EU country if there's a No Deal or WTO. The company is a tiny speck on the map, but we won't be the only ones who have 'made plans'. The UK is in for a very rough ride we end up with No Deal or WTO. I really wish we were already there because I'm sick too death of all the indecision.

BTW: I mentioned this on here back in June (2018) and how we had been welcomed with open arms.

https://bit.ly/2Tw9V5a

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:48 pm

Latest opinion polls put the worst government in history 10% ahead of Labour.

Which is a stunning indictment of our country as a whole, and Labour in particular.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:53 pm

According to LBC, if the "No deal" thing passes tomorrow, that makes it law.

Which means we have two laws clashing with that saying "we can't leave" and Article 50 saying we leave without a deal.

Thats can't be right, can it?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:53 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Latest opinion polls put the worst government in history 10% ahead of Labour.

Which is a stunning indictment of our country as a whole, and Labour in particular.
In history or living memory?

I'm not sitting here saying they aren't crap, because they are, but worst in history seems overly dramatic for you.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:53 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Latest opinion polls put the worst government in history 10% ahead of Labour.

Which is a stunning indictment of our country as a whole, and Labour in particular.

That is exactly the issue, if the Labour party were serious about being in power they would remove the idiot in charge and some of the clowns who stand by him, if Labour members were equally serious about wanting their party in power they would have demanded he resign ages ago. As it is sitting across the table saying this isn't what we would do is a lot easier for them.

We are where we are today half due to how bad the tories are and half how bad labour are, labour lovers just refuse to accept this.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:54 pm

Struggling to think of an elected one that is worse to be honest.

King Charles I in 1641-42 is worse, but thats hardly an elected govt!
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:55 pm

Relax.
No-deal will get less than 50 votes if it comes to it tomorrow.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:56 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:That is exactly the issue, if the Labour party were serious about being in power they would remove the idiot in charge and some of the clowns who stand by him, if Labour members were equally serious about wanting their party in power they would have demanded he resign ages ago. As it is sitting across the table saying this isn't what we would do is a lot easier for them.

We are where we are today half due to how bad the tories are and half how bad labour are, labour lovers just refuse to accept this.
It was a downward spiral when they stuck the wrong Miliband brother in charge, in my opinion.

Then Corbyn getting the job has just compounded the issue.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:58 pm

That is exactly the issue, if the Labour party were serious about being in power they would remove the idiot in charge and some of the clowns who stand by him, if Labour members were equally serious about wanting their party in power they would have demanded he resign ages ago. As it is sitting across the table saying this isn't what we would do is a lot easier for them.

We are where we are today half due to how bad the tories are and half how bad labour are, labour lovers just refuse to accept this.
You won't find any love for Corbyn and his followers from me!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:01 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Anyone listening to this debate, with Mays voice dying quicker than her deal would have to have a heart of stone not to feel some sympathy for her.
Or someone who works in the car industry, or the parent or relative of a recent stabbing victim, or Scottish or etc etc etc.

I wouldn't feel any sympathy for her if her head fell off.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:02 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:You won't find any love for Corbyn and his followers from me!

I know that, for all your faults ( :D ) you do at least recognise how unsuitable he is

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:03 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:According to LBC, if the "No deal" thing passes tomorrow, that makes it law.

Which means we have two laws clashing with that saying "we can't leave" and Article 50 saying we leave without a deal.

Thats can't be right, can it?
If that's true (and it sounds suspect to me), that would mean the only legal option available if the EU won't grant us an extension is t0 unilaterally revoke Article 50.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:05 pm

I guess it depends on the exact wording on tomorrows "No Deal" thing.

Still think it will pass tonight.

ERG have to be smacked off their tits if they think they can get better than this.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I guess it depends on the exact wording on tomorrows "No Deal" thing.

Still think it will pass tonight.

ERG have to be smacked off their tits if they think they can get better than this.
But with the DUP confirming that they will definitely vote against the deal the government majority has gone. It will take more Labour MPs to vote for the deal than Tories voting against for it to get through, I just can’t see that happening.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:17 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I guess it depends on the exact wording on tomorrows "No Deal" thing.

Still think it will pass tonight.

ERG have to be smacked off their tits if they think they can get better than this.
DUP are voting against, as are several tory remainers.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Billy Balfour » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:18 pm

Both main parties are split. Split over Brexit and split over their choice of leader. Thing is, I can't see a leader in waiting on any side of the HoC. The political big hitters, who can see the whole picture, just aren't there. We have 'leaders' of political factions within their own parties. This can only get worse before it gets better.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:18 pm

They say they are andy, doesn't mean they will.

Still time yet

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:28 pm

According to journos in the HoCs the Tory whips aren’t even charging around like you’d expect them to at this point, there’s a real air of defeat. I suspect the margin will be more like 50-100 rather than the 230 last time, but I don’t see any way of May turning this round in the next two and a half hours.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:45 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:Same here.

I don't think there will be a GE either. It would be a Brexit GE and there are too many MPs with slender majorities. Also, what will the Tories fight on. No deal, May's deal or some disingenuous cockeyed deal that EU will never approve?

Promises like 'Brexit will be easy, and have no downsides' and 'Our free trade agreements we will be the easiest thing in human history' will no longer wash with the centre ground (public) - and it's the centre ground where GE are won. I think we would end up with another hung Parliament, but it could be one where the Tories are the opposition. Will they risk it?
The tories with a brexiteer leader would fight on a mandate of we want a deal but if the EU won't be reasonable we will have a managed no deal. I'd do that by saying we will revoke A50 and re envoke it if necessary. I ' d also make it clear that there wilk not be another referundum.

Edit. Also a canada plus deal. If they get a majority then the EU would ve very clear what we wanted.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:45 pm

There will be a lot of abstentions.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dpinsussex » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:47 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:
ERG have to be smacked off their tits if they think they can get better than this.

Sad thing is I think they actually are smacked off their tits :) :)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:51 pm

I'm hoping it's defeated 52% to 48%.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:06 pm

AndyClaret wrote:There will be a lot of abstentions.
Not saying you're wrong, but any MP who abstains in what will be the most significant vote for years loses all respect.
Even if all the ERG abstain then May is still likely to lose, so they should stick to their principles and go down as "lions" rather than turning their backs on everything they believe in. (Even though I don't share their views).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:07 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:Neither side can guarantee much of anything, but they won't admit it.

Job losses will happen if we are in or out, there could be more than if we were in that's the main difference, but they can't provide proof either way.

We've had cuts in services for the last 8-9 years, but they'll blame that on Brexit too.
Whereas you'll presumably blame Labour, as you do for everything that is the fault of the Tories.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by SmudgetheClaret » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:11 pm

The best thing to come out of brexit will be a nationalist party that will kill off once and for all the red blue two party cartel :D

Falcon
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Falcon » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:16 pm

Yeah the rise of Nationalism will be ace *head hits table*

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