Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
Locked
summitclaret
Posts: 3916
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:39 pm
Been Liked: 833 times
Has Liked: 1324 times
Location: burnley

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:09 am

nil_desperandum wrote:You've just answered your own question.
I've been posting this for months now:
Question 1. Do you wish to LEAVE the EU? YES or NO
Question 2. If the answer to 1. is "YES", place the following leave options in rank order*, (or some alternative kind of indicative vote to point the govt. in the correct direction).
* one option of course being "No Deal".
The leave options would be something like the following but in plain english.

So Q1 leave or remain.

Q2 If we leave do you support leaving with a planned no deal if it proves impossible to reach an agreement with the EU

Q3. Which is your preferred approach to future trading

3.1 Outside a customs union and the EU's single market and able to strike trade deals around the world

3.2 In the EU's customs union and aligned to its single market

Q3 could be adapted and or extended

Can't see how anyone could object the the above approach especially as it would give a clear steer to negotiation

I'd vote

leave
with a planned no deal
and for 3.1

Clean break and no cliff edge
These 2 users liked this post: Pstotto nil_desperandum

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:11 am

Okay, so we have "No Deal", so we become the only country in the world (apart from Mauretania) to have no trade deals with anyone.

The ones we have with Switzerland, Mauritius and New Zealand then kick in. Thats it.

Let that sink in for a minute.

And according to dsr, we won't get screwed on trade negotiations with other countries. We'll be desperate. And every day we wait, more businesses will fail, and more people will be struggling. That is reality.

To believe in Brexit, you can probably make a case for it.

To believe that our trade position is good if we go down the "No Deal" route is quite simple impossible to justify.

dpinsussex
Posts: 3554
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:15 am
Been Liked: 1047 times
Has Liked: 1187 times
Location: Reading

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dpinsussex » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:13 am

aggi wrote:You'd expect an initial question of:
"Leave or Remain"

and then a secondary question of:
"If leave then do you want:
No deal
May's Deal
EEA"

or whatever.

It will put some meat on the bones of what Leave means. For instance it will finally show if there is really a mandate for No Deal (as some seem to believe)
Given we have had a vote on leave or remain.

Any new public vote should be

No deal
May's deal
Norway style deal

However I think there can only be 2 options because if 1 option "won" with 35% clearly wouldn't be a majority of the British people.

summitclaret
Posts: 3916
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:39 pm
Been Liked: 833 times
Has Liked: 1324 times
Location: burnley

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:15 am

Q2 is planned no deal. I want a deal but if yes to Q2 we are in a good position to get a trade deal.
Last edited by summitclaret on Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

keith1879
Posts: 867
Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:28 pm
Been Liked: 262 times
Has Liked: 366 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by keith1879 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:16 am

Greenmile wrote:So we’re taking the word of random youtubers over the Electoral Commission now, are we?

Nb - I haven’t watched the video you linked. I don’t have time right now.
I watched it ....hard going to be honest. It is some bloke who provides no logical sequence of evidence to back up his statement that both sides broke the law (although he does quote a figure showing that remain spent more in total - which quotes the electoral commission as its source). On the other hand we have that same electoral commission telling us that "Remain" did NOT break the law.

This sort of thing just adds to my conviction that the argument for Leaving the EU falls into two subdivisions - the ignorant and the liars.

Tall Paul
Posts: 7175
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:07 am
Been Liked: 2564 times
Has Liked: 692 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Tall Paul » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:21 am

summitclaret wrote:Q2 is planned no deal. I want a deal but if yes to Q2 we are in a good position to get a trade deal.
What is a "planned no deal"?

dsr
Posts: 15225
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4576 times
Has Liked: 2264 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:21 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Okay, so we have "No Deal", so we become the only country in the world (apart from Mauretania) to have no trade deals with anyone.

The ones we have with Switzerland, Mauritius and New Zealand then kick in. Thats it.

Let that sink in for a minute.

And according to dsr, we won't get screwed on trade negotiations with other countries. We'll be desperate. And every day we wait, more businesses will fail, and more people will be struggling. That is reality.

To believe in Brexit, you can probably make a case for it.

To believe that our trade position is good if we go down the "No Deal" route is quite simple impossible to justify.
Desperate? I doubt trade with the USA will be dramatically affected, for example, when we go from having no trade deal through the EU to having no trade deal on our own account.

Have you got good evidence of the impact of a trade deal? Let's look at Canada. We signed a trade deal via the EU with them in 2016. In 2016, exports to Canada were $6.4m; the year after, when the trade deal kicked in, $6.3m. Does the reverse happen? When a trade deal ends, the difference is so small that no-one notices? Or does it immediately cause a cataclysm and the economy tanks?

Or what happens if the exchange rate fluctuates. If the exchange rate drops by 10% so that our exports are 10% more attractive to foreigners, does the average 3% increase in tariffs negate the gain so they all refuse to buy? I'd be surprised.

When (if) we leave, we will have trade arrangements in place with every other country in the world. Not ideal trade arrangement, perhaps, but then the arrangements you are proposing for the EU are dreadful - WTO arrangements could hardly be worse.

Mala591
Posts: 1889
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:02 pm
Been Liked: 685 times
Has Liked: 429 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:22 am

Thought for today:

Last year NET immigration was 283,000 which is equivalent to FOUR towns the size of Burnley.

Whatever the Brexit outcome we MUST NEVER give in on the final 'red line' of an independent immigration policy. Imo, without carefully restricted and managed immigration, we cannot accurately plan health, transport, education, farming and housing policies.

A future vision of gridlocked roads and railways, ever increasing house prices, loss of green belt open space, overcrowded schools with increasing class sizes etc etc is not what I want to hand down to my children/grandchildren.
This user liked this post: hampsteadclaret

CrosspoolClarets
Posts: 5335
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:00 pm
Been Liked: 1644 times
Has Liked: 400 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:22 am

martin_p wrote:I think you mean ''I bet most leave voters do'.

Again it's a 'this is mainly remoaners and the EUs fault', although at least it gives a minor mention for the ERGs role in this. It fails to mention that the two years of negotiation have been led by Brexiteers, it fails to mention that the backstop was the UKs idea, not the EUs. It calims the EU have set out to humiliate us when all they've done is be entirely consistent in sticking to their red lines, specifically on a hard border in Ireland. It fails to mention that the Brexit the championed has always been a fantasy. But then that's a Murdoch paper for you, everything is everybody elses fault (which is largely how all this started), it's what sells papers.
There is a lot of very, very lazy thinking from Remainers on this thread.

Brexiteers are very aware of the dangers of brinksmanship costing any kind of real Brexit, so the likes of Rees Mogg will not be universally popular with the Brexiteer public. Remainers though seem unaware of the huge impact Remain voters (the ones with power) have had since 2016, and unaware that most of the public can see it clearly and intend to punish them for it. If we end up staying, that punishment will last decades, to the cost of us all.

Specifically, I'd make the following points:

1. The Sun's political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, knows his stuff. His Dad was an MEP and was pro-Euro. I certainly don't detect any imbalance in his tweets even if the editorials can lean a little to the Leave side. Slating The Sun is fine but we shouldn't automatically dismiss it, I find as much sense on Brexit as I get in my Times and Telegraph subscriptions.

2. "Negotiations led by Brexiteers" is the laziest line of all (regularly repeated by many). This whole thing has been May and her advisors overruling colleagues, and the Brexiteer DexEU ones were overruled regularly. Davis and Raab (and this week, Cox) have been proven right again and again in things May has overruled. Particularly invoking A50 to leave a visible cliff edge which Davis said at the time was madness. So Brexiteers are NOT to blame for this - May and her rebelling Remainer MPs who voted with Labour against a 3 line whip are. If her party stuck solidly behind her this deal would have been done ages ago, without a hard Brexit.

3. The backstop was the EUs idea, shocking London who thought the FTA would solve the Irish issue. It was invented on Nov 8 2017 as the 6th bullet point on a list Barnier gave to the EU27. It read "It consequently seems essential for the UK to commit to ensuring that a hard border on the island of Ireland is avoided, including by ensuring no emergence of regulatory divergence from those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which are (or may be in the future) necessary for meaningful North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

4. The EU "sticking to their red lines" and not humiliating us. How is that explained by Martin Selmayr's overheard comment that losing Northern Ireland would be the price the EU would make Britain pay for Brexit? They have gone out of their way to cause problems and many of our MPs and former MPs have been in cahoots with them, flying over to advise.

So I'm sorry Martin but your paragraph in reply to me just doesn't make sense from start to finish.

dsr
Posts: 15225
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4576 times
Has Liked: 2264 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:24 am

dpinsussex wrote:Given we have had a vote on leave or remain.

Any new public vote should be

No deal
May's deal
Norway style deal

However I think there can only be 2 options because if 1 option "won" with 35% clearly wouldn't be a majority of the British people.
There's no point putting May's deal on a referendum. One thing leavers and remainers agree on, is that that deal is awful.

It's leave or stay. And now we know that the EU is an entirely uncooperative body that is going to be as obstructive as it knows how, the Remainers won't be able to argue this time that we didn't know what they were like. We know they will hurt themselves in order to hurt us more; the only question is whether we are willing to put up with that sort of attitude for the sake of a few quid, or whether we think we can manage independently,

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:25 am

The starting position is that everyone has trade deals because they are better than WTO rules. That is an unarguable fact.

You can argue about that if you want, but you are effectively arguing against reality (again)

summitclaret
Posts: 3916
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:39 pm
Been Liked: 833 times
Has Liked: 1324 times
Location: burnley

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:26 am

Tall Paul wrote:What is a "planned no deal"?
A period of around 2 years during which we try to get a trade deal with the EU where we definetely leave at the end if no deal achieved. No ifs or buts. During that time we prepare fully and so does business.

CrosspoolClarets
Posts: 5335
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:00 pm
Been Liked: 1644 times
Has Liked: 400 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:26 am

On the "no deal" stuff today, the whole thing stinks of Hammond's cunning hand.

Having zero tariffs now on some of this stuff will give countries no incentive to agree a FTA with us - they can simply export to us for free anyway. We will thus have to offer all kinds of things to them to get reciprocal access to their markets.

I'm a fan of lower tariff barriers, but not in this way for an initial 12 month temporary adjustment to flatten the prices consumers pay.

So yet again, we must separate the Brexit people voted for with the Brexit these Remainers are trying to implement.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:30 am

A period of around 2 years during which we try to get a trade deal with the EU where we definetely leave at the end if no deal achieved. No ifs or buts. During that time we prepare fully and so does business.
So the two year postponement that we both agree on?

makes sense, but will the uber Brexiteers and the EU agree?

AndrewJB
Posts: 3808
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:20 pm
Been Liked: 1159 times
Has Liked: 754 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:30 am

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... van-Rogers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You'll never get this hour of your life back, but well worth a listen to understand what we'll be looking at moving forward.

Damo
Posts: 4505
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:04 pm
Been Liked: 1777 times
Has Liked: 2761 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:40 am

martin_p wrote:Yes that counts. Having a referendum without understanding exactly what Leave means would be completely pointless and take the argument no further forward.
"Leave voters did not know what leaving meant"
Another of Greenmiles demonstrable lies
https://youtu.be/9fDn0MvcHQ4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

CrosspoolClarets
Posts: 5335
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:00 pm
Been Liked: 1644 times
Has Liked: 400 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:40 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:On the "no deal" stuff today, the whole thing stinks of Hammond's cunning hand.

Having zero tariffs now on some of this stuff will give countries no incentive to agree a FTA with us - they can simply export to us for free anyway. We will thus have to offer all kinds of things to them to get reciprocal access to their markets.

I'm a fan of lower tariff barriers, but not in this way for an initial 12 month temporary adjustment to flatten the prices consumers pay.

So yet again, we must separate the Brexit people voted for with the Brexit these Remainers are trying to implement.
Just to add in the interests of balance....(IF the UK was genuinely interested in using no deal as brinksmanship, which it seems we are not)...

RTE is saying this morning that the Irish Cattle and Sheep Farmers Association says the impact of the proposed tariff on the Irish beef sector would be "catastrophic" and "would totally collapse overnight" exports to the UK which is over 50% of their cattle stock.

Suggestions that 150,000 jobs could be at risk across all sectors, which is 5% of their entire economy.

Do we now believe that German economic think tank that said a tariff slashing no deal would be 10x more devastating to the Ireland economy compared to the UK economy? Imagine how good our deal would have been if we had all stuck together instead of Remainers trying to sabotage the whole thing.

Lancasterclaret
Posts: 23343
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:09 pm
Been Liked: 8058 times
Has Liked: 4714 times
Location: Riding the galactic winds in my X-wing

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:44 am

Bloke who wanted his own personal Brexit ahead of anything else blames remainers?

Shocked, I'm shocked I tell you.

GodIsADeeJay81
Posts: 14567
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:55 am
Been Liked: 3436 times
Has Liked: 6339 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:46 am

summitclaret wrote:A period of around 2 years during which we try to get a trade deal with the EU where we definetely leave at the end if no deal achieved. No ifs or buts. During that time we prepare fully and so does business.
So basically what we should've done these last two years but completely failed to do?
I can't see the government doing any better with another two years.

aggi
Posts: 8831
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2117 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:47 am

dsr wrote:Desperate? I doubt trade with the USA will be dramatically affected, for example, when we go from having no trade deal through the EU to having no trade deal on our own account.
Although the EU doesn't have a fully fledged trade deal with the US it does have quite a number of smaller bilateral trade agreements dealing with specific areas which we won't have.

As someone (I think it may be you) keeps pointing out, the average tariffs are generally quite low, so the focus of a lot of these agreements is non-tariff barriers, aligning regulations, oversight, professional bodies and the like (the most recent one I saw was something to do with sharing data, it's a little side deal but has huge implications).

It's easy to say that the EU doesn't have a trade deal with a country so it will make no difference but it's simply not true. I think there's only a handful of countries in the world that trade without any side deals and we don't want to be one of them.

Pstotto
Posts: 6224
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:11 pm
Been Liked: 1024 times
Has Liked: 763 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Pstotto » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:05 pm

I don't see the point of trade deals, it's poor business. Swap shop, you swap for something you want. Triumph Motorcycles for laser pens and drones? I scratch your back you **** down mine?

Buy a product from where, sell a product from where, isn't that the so-called 'healthy competition' of the capitalist economy?

Each country has its rules as to what they might want or not, for example I would ban imports of cars with on-board computers, sat-nav, blacked-out windows, max speed over 105 mph, engine size over 2-litre for a car. Look what happened to that jet, one sensor not working and it's over, same anything AND the price and the cartels of the fix-its.

I know it's a bit more complex and a bit more dog eat dog, but we've been chewed by Japan and China and Germany.
Last edited by Pstotto on Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

aggi
Posts: 8831
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2117 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:10 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Just to add in the interests of balance....(IF the UK was genuinely interested in using no deal as brinksmanship, which it seems we are not)...

RTE is saying this morning that the Irish Cattle and Sheep Farmers Association says the impact of the proposed tariff on the Irish beef sector would be "catastrophic" and "would totally collapse overnight" exports to the UK which is over 50% of their cattle stock.

Suggestions that 150,000 jobs could be at risk across all sectors, which is 5% of their entire economy.

Do we now believe that German economic think tank that said a tariff slashing no deal would be 10x more devastating to the Ireland economy compared to the UK economy? Imagine how good our deal would have been if we had all stuck together instead of Remainers trying to sabotage the whole thing.
Have you got a link to this yet? I've looked back and you've quoted from it but I can't see a link to the full thing.

I guess your pragmatic viewpoint is that it's worth sacrificing a few hundred thousand UK agriculture jobs if that is reciprocated in Ireland as we're a bigger country and can absorb it better but I'm not sure that view would gain much traction generally .

summitclaret
Posts: 3916
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:39 pm
Been Liked: 833 times
Has Liked: 1324 times
Location: burnley

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:13 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:So basically what we should've done these last two years but completely failed to do?
I can't see the government doing any better with another two years.
.

It would when the remain dominated HOC had this time to actually do what it had been asked to.

aggi
Posts: 8831
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2117 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:14 pm

dpinsussex wrote:Given we have had a vote on leave or remain.

Any new public vote should be

No deal
May's deal
Norway style deal

However I think there can only be 2 options because if 1 option "won" with 35% clearly wouldn't be a majority of the British people.
I'm guessing you didn't really mean "a majority of the British people" as obviously the previous Leave vote was a long, long way from having that.

Personally my view is that if people (not necessarily you but it's one that TM uses a lot) are going to keep banging on about "the will of the people" then we should really check if it is still the will of the people. It strikes me as fairly cowardly to keep saying this is what the people want but being too scared to ask them.

dsr
Posts: 15225
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4576 times
Has Liked: 2264 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:18 pm

aggi wrote:Although the EU doesn't have a fully fledged trade deal with the US it does have quite a number of smaller bilateral trade agreements dealing with specific areas which we won't have.

As someone (I think it may be you) keeps pointing out, the average tariffs are generally quite low, so the focus of a lot of these agreements is non-tariff barriers, aligning regulations, oversight, professional bodies and the like (the most recent one I saw was something to do with sharing data, it's a little side deal but has huge implications).

It's easy to say that the EU doesn't have a trade deal with a country so it will make no difference but it's simply not true. I think there's only a handful of countries in the world that trade without any side deals and we don't want to be one of them.
And how much impact on the national economy will it have while those are sorted out? How many of the differences will be implemented overnight? Obviously these things should have been sorted out already - we've had two and a half years - but our own politicians' incompetence coupled with the EU's incompetence has meant that hasn't happened. But there's little point sitting on our hands for another year or two before doing all this again - we might as well leave, and sort out the details later.

If they want to write the EU off as a bad job, use a delay to sort out arrangements post-Brexit, and make it clear that negotiations with the EU are over, then a short delay might be palatable. A delay just so the farrago of the last two years can continue, would be pointless. But otherwise, we might as well go now and start sorting out the mess and/or inconvenience from outside, because we sure as heck aren't going to sort it out from inside.

GodIsADeeJay81
Posts: 14567
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:55 am
Been Liked: 3436 times
Has Liked: 6339 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:20 pm

summitclaret wrote:.

It would when the remain dominated HOC had this time to actually do what it had been asked to.
They've had two years to do what's been asked of it and they failed because they're busy dick waving instead.

They're at it now from what I can hear on the radio.

Pstotto
Posts: 6224
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:11 pm
Been Liked: 1024 times
Has Liked: 763 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Pstotto » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:25 pm

The first referendum to have is for the English people only. Do you want to boot N.I. out of the Union, yes or no? It's over the water, obviously Irish, a drain on resources, not much common ground culturally, they voted Remain, we have to clean up the mess of their infighting and have that rubbish on our TVs and they don't fall into line regarding accepting a hard border as the proper national security of a country. Let them have their soft border outside of the union.

AndrewJB
Posts: 3808
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:20 pm
Been Liked: 1159 times
Has Liked: 754 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:45 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Just to add in the interests of balance....(IF the UK was genuinely interested in using no deal as brinksmanship, which it seems we are not)...

RTE is saying this morning that the Irish Cattle and Sheep Farmers Association says the impact of the proposed tariff on the Irish beef sector would be "catastrophic" and "would totally collapse overnight" exports to the UK which is over 50% of their cattle stock.

Suggestions that 150,000 jobs could be at risk across all sectors, which is 5% of their entire economy.

Do we now believe that German economic think tank that said a tariff slashing no deal would be 10x more devastating to the Ireland economy compared to the UK economy? Imagine how good our deal would have been if we had all stuck together instead of Remainers trying to sabotage the whole thing.
Some people talk about how the rest of Europe is taking a hard line in negotiations with us (though I can't see how an organisation sticking to its well known principles can be described as "taking a hard line"), but when I consider the combative stance you advocate (using a country's economic well being as a pawn in a negotiation) how else would you expect things to go? When you go to buy a car, do you kick off the discussion with; "I know where your kids go to school"?

As for this "all of us sticking together" - around what? The government has never embarked upon a consultation exercise to determine what kind of brexit we should go for, and nor has it cogently outlined its position. And who are these shadowy remainers who have scuppered things? Last time I looked, David Davis and Dominic Raaaaab - the ministers in charge - are both committed leavers. As is Liam Fox. Isn't it more realistic to conclude that leaving the EU isn't as simple and straightforward as was promised by the leave campaign?

bfcjg
Posts: 13305
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:17 pm
Been Liked: 5074 times
Has Liked: 6850 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by bfcjg » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:51 pm

Lets get Noel Edmonds in to sort out this deal or no deal malarkey.
https://goo.gl/images/BZZcez" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

dsr
Posts: 15225
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4576 times
Has Liked: 2264 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:55 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Some people talk about how the rest of Europe is taking a hard line in negotiations with us (though I can't see how an organisation sticking to its well known principles can be described as "taking a hard line"), but when I consider the combative stance you advocate (using a country's economic well being as a pawn in a negotiation) how else would you expect things to go?
It's not the facts of what the EU is doing that we can't agree on; it's the action the UK should take as a result. My attitude is that the EU isn't going to play ball, so we have to leave and get on with it; Remainers' attitude seems to be that the EU isn't going to play ball, so we must either delete the referendum result, or we must do as they say and eat the scraps off their table.
These 6 users liked this post: hampsteadclaret Damo CrosspoolClarets summitclaret AndyClaret PaintYorkClaretnBlue

CrosspoolClarets
Posts: 5335
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:00 pm
Been Liked: 1644 times
Has Liked: 400 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:12 pm

aggi wrote:Have you got a link to this yet? I've looked back and you've quoted from it but I can't see a link to the full thing.

I guess your pragmatic viewpoint is that it's worth sacrificing a few hundred thousand UK agriculture jobs if that is reciprocated in Ireland as we're a bigger country and can absorb it better but I'm not sure that view would gain much traction generally .
http://www.cesifo-group.de/de/ifoHome/p ... 04002.html

That’s the report.

On the farming thing that just serves to prove the point that the German guy is making in this report. My wife has worked in the farming sector all her life and many of her family are farmers. Put it this way - you will rarely see such a staunch bunch of Brexiteers as farmers, like all of us they would prefer a deal but think we should show some nerve and confidence in getting one. May and Hammond have neither, Hammon going rogue in his speech right now, undermining May.

CrosspoolClarets
Posts: 5335
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:00 pm
Been Liked: 1644 times
Has Liked: 400 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:17 pm

dsr wrote:It's not the facts of what the EU is doing that we can't agree on; it's the action the UK should take as a result. My attitude is that the EU isn't going to play ball, so we have to leave and get on with it; Remainers' attitude seems to be that the EU isn't going to play ball, so we must either delete the referendum result, or we must do as they say and eat the scraps off their table.
Really DSR this is down to mindset and confidence. Some of us believe that Brits can show creativity, ambition and intellect in adapting to whatever we have in front of it. In short, independence would benefit us as we would thrive. Others believe this not to be true. Most of our MPs are from the public service / employee mindset, rather than the employer mindset. That puts them in the camp where they struggle to perceive how our strengths can be maximised, leading to the “scraps off the table” that you so perfectly put.

Damo
Posts: 4505
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:04 pm
Been Liked: 1777 times
Has Liked: 2761 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:24 pm

IMG_20190313_132147.jpg
IMG_20190313_132147.jpg (496.72 KiB) Viewed 2050 times
Fantastic that at least one local constituency has an M.P who votes in line with the views of his constituants

JohnMcGreal
Posts: 2232
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:37 am
Been Liked: 1354 times
Has Liked: 440 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by JohnMcGreal » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:34 pm

Real patriots at work here. British MPs lobbying foreign governments to reject any article 50 extension request from the UK.

This will only make a unilateral withdrawal more likely, which will then fuel their 'betrayal by the elite' agenda. It's as if they've planned it all out...

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/stat ... 9830750208" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

claretspice
Posts: 5724
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:13 am
Been Liked: 2829 times
Has Liked: 141 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by claretspice » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:36 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Just to add in the interests of balance....(IF the UK was genuinely interested in using no deal as brinksmanship, which it seems we are not)...

RTE is saying this morning that the Irish Cattle and Sheep Farmers Association says the impact of the proposed tariff on the Irish beef sector would be "catastrophic" and "would totally collapse overnight" exports to the UK which is over 50% of their cattle stock.

Suggestions that 150,000 jobs could be at risk across all sectors, which is 5% of their entire economy.

Do we now believe that German economic think tank that said a tariff slashing no deal would be 10x more devastating to the Ireland economy compared to the UK economy? Imagine how good our deal would have been if we had all stuck together instead of Remainers trying to sabotage the whole thing.
Isn't this language of "sabotage" a bit paranoid and unnecessary? I think the majority of remain voters have long since accepted that Brexit is likely to happen. The idea that May has been spending the last 3 years and virtually all her political capital playing some Machiavellian game which ends with her revoking article 50 reeks of pure sensationalism. Both major parties know that they risk losing too big a constituency to reject brexit outright.

There's a deal on the table for Brexit that has one truly controversial aspect - the backstop. That deal could have passed parliament last night. That it didn't is because the hard Brexit faction in parliament didn't vote for it. The Labour party has an alternative plan for Brexit that could command the majority of the house of commons, but which has a different controversial aspect - the customs union.

That isn't sabotage - it looks to me like two credible plans borne of compromise to safeguard jobs and what is almost universally accepted to be a profound short-to-medium term economic shock as a result of a no deal Brexit. This language needs de-escalating quickly, for the benefit of the whole country.

If you believe that the country should go for a cliff edge on the basis that the "creativity, ambition and intellect" of the British people (qualities most countries in the world would probably consider their people to have, by the way) will act as some sort of parachute, fair enough. But don't start crying sabotage when the government and a significant proportion (most?) of the rest of the population listen to almost all the creditable experts who think that's (to put it mildly) a profound gamble even in the longer term, and offers no protection to the short term shock even Farage accepts would occur. Perhaps instead engage with one of the compromises, and lobby those pure-blood Brexit supporters in Parliament to do likewise.
This user liked this post: Cubanclaret

claretspice
Posts: 5724
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:13 am
Been Liked: 2829 times
Has Liked: 141 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by claretspice » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:41 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:Real patriots at work here. British MPs lobbying foreign governments to reject any article 50 extension request from the UK.

This will only make a unilateral withdrawal more likely, which will then fuel their 'betrayal by the elite' agenda. It's as if they've planned it all out...

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/stat ... 9830750208" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Blimey.

nil_desperandum
Posts: 7311
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1827 times
Has Liked: 3964 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:44 pm

Tall Paul wrote:What is a "planned no deal"?
Answer: An Oxymoron proposed by oxymorons?

nil_desperandum
Posts: 7311
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1827 times
Has Liked: 3964 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:54 pm

dpinsussex wrote:Given we have had a vote on leave or remain.

Any new public vote should be

No deal
May's deal
Norway style deal

However I think there can only be 2 options because if 1 option "won" with 35% clearly wouldn't be a majority of the British people.
You really don't understand how these things work do you?
It's not a Gen Election with a FPTP voting system.
It would have to be designed by the Electoral Commission (most likely) with preferences in ranked order, but there are other ways of organising a vote when you have more than a binary option.
You would think that no one in the world had ever organised anything like this before.
So question 1. Leave or remain, and then assuming leave win, question 2 would have a list of preferences including "no deal", so no minority option could possibly win.

hampsteadclaret
Posts: 3235
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:25 am
Been Liked: 1110 times
Has Liked: 802 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by hampsteadclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:56 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:So the two year postponement that we both agree on?

makes sense, but will the uber Brexiteers and the EU agree?


Lancaster please don't do that.

Please don't insult my intelligence or waste our time with silly transparent stuff like this.

ANYONE proposing a delay of one or two years has only one aim or ambition in mind - the total obliteration or dropping of Brexit...nothing less than that.

The Referendum was 2 years 8 months ago [the delays were not caused by those on the winning side, that's not gonna be likely is it? ]

- even now many are calling for us to just 'drop Brexit' because the vote was a long time ago.

Comments like..'many of those dopey pensioners who did not know what they are voting for, are now six foot under...a lot more young people are now eligible to vote and should be given the chance'

Add two more years on and those comments will be more widespread and a lot louder.

This is what your duplicitous comment about a 'two year postponement' is about....it's about delay, and more delay so that at some point punters will be legitimately able to say - the Referendum result is irrelevant now, it was too long ago....and loads more of us will be totally fed up and bored to death of the whole embarrassing fiasco.

This may well be the direction we now go in, again kicking that well-battered can down the street..who knows,.. and we are going to need permission to do this from the EU, who may play hardball.

At least be honest though about why you think a two year delay is a sensible move.


If we go down the 'extra two years' route [we may be forced down it] then a proper Brexit will not happen.

Once again... that will cause untold damage going forward, as a freely offered one-off democratic vote of the British public is tossed into the waste-bin, because some people [the losers] did not like the result.
This user liked this post: dsr

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3321 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:01 pm

What's a "proper Brexit" Hampstead ?

After you tell all the Burnley fans can you let the rest of the country know please.

aggi
Posts: 8831
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2117 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:06 pm

dsr wrote:And how much impact on the national economy will it have while those are sorted out? How many of the differences will be implemented overnight? Obviously these things should have been sorted out already - we've had two and a half years - but our own politicians' incompetence coupled with the EU's incompetence has meant that hasn't happened. But there's little point sitting on our hands for another year or two before doing all this again - we might as well leave, and sort out the details later.

If they want to write the EU off as a bad job, use a delay to sort out arrangements post-Brexit, and make it clear that negotiations with the EU are over, then a short delay might be palatable. A delay just so the farrago of the last two years can continue, would be pointless. But otherwise, we might as well go now and start sorting out the mess and/or inconvenience from outside, because we sure as heck aren't going to sort it out from inside.
Given our current track record I'm not convinced that the hundreds of side deals will be agreed quickly, never mind overnight.

Leave and sort the details out later sounds like a plan if you ignore the details. As a personal example, I'm meant to be travelling to the US for work in the first week of April. At the moment (due to the possible ending of the side deal I mentioned earlier) we don't know whether we'll be able to store the data we'll get from the US on our network in the UK (we won't be anle to do the job otherwise) and, if we do, whether we'll have to follow different procedures from normal. I'm sure there are plenty of others in the same situations.

hampsteadclaret
Posts: 3235
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:25 am
Been Liked: 1110 times
Has Liked: 802 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by hampsteadclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:08 pm

Anyone who has followed the debate on here for 3290 posts [and all the other previous threads] and reads the papers, and watches the telly, should have no need to ask your question.

Maybe you should read a few more posts and keep up..?

Google is your friend.

claretspice
Posts: 5724
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:13 am
Been Liked: 2829 times
Has Liked: 141 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by claretspice » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:09 pm

hampsteadclaret wrote:Anyone who has followed the debate on here for 3290 posts [and all the other previous threads] and reads the papers, and watches the telly, should have no need to ask your question.

Maybe you should read a few more posts and keep up..?

Google is your friend.
And why was the deal that was before Parliament last night not a "Proper Brexit"?

aggi
Posts: 8831
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2117 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:11 pm

claretspice wrote:Isn't this language of "sabotage" a bit paranoid and unnecessary?
It's either that or blame the people that they listened to and believed like Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Gove, David Davis, Farage and the rest and it's a bit embarrassing to accept that you swallowed a load of stuff that was never going to happen now they've gone quiet re: solutions.

hampsteadclaret
Posts: 3235
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:25 am
Been Liked: 1110 times
Has Liked: 802 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by hampsteadclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:12 pm

hampsteadclaret wrote:Anyone who has followed the debate on here for 3290 posts [and all the other previous threads] and reads the papers, and watches the telly, should have no need to ask your question.

Maybe you should read a few more posts and keep up..?

Google is your friend.

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3321 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:12 pm

hampsteadclaret wrote:Anyone who has followed the debate on here for 3290 posts [and all the other previous threads] and reads the papers, and watches the telly, should have no need to ask your question.

Maybe you should read a few more posts and keep up..?

Google is your friend.
If that's directed towards me I am pretty sure I have read more on Brexit than most...including you.
The sarcasm you seem to have missed is that your definition of a "proper Brexit" will be different to many other leavers definitions....there must be at least 900 definitions....one for every day since June 2016 !

aggi
Posts: 8831
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:31 am
Been Liked: 2117 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:17 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:http://www.cesifo-group.de/de/ifoHome/p ... 04002.html

That’s the report.

On the farming thing that just serves to prove the point that the German guy is making in this report. My wife has worked in the farming sector all her life and many of her family are farmers. Put it this way - you will rarely see such a staunch bunch of Brexiteers as farmers, like all of us they would prefer a deal but think we should show some nerve and confidence in getting one. May and Hammond have neither, Hammon going rogue in his speech right now, undermining May.
Cheers, I found that version but didn't realise you'd been translating it all and hoped you had an English version.

Not all farmers seem that keen https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -countries" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

hampsteadclaret
Posts: 3235
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:25 am
Been Liked: 1110 times
Has Liked: 802 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by hampsteadclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:19 pm

TVC15 wrote:If that's directed towards me I am pretty sure I have read more on Brexit than most...including you.
The sarcasm you seem to have missed is that your definition of a "proper Brexit" will be different to many other leavers definitions....there must be at least 900 definitions....one for every day since June 2016 !
Of course it was directed at you.. :) and I doubt very much what you say in your first sent..

No.. not gonna go there.

TVC15
Posts: 8211
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:09 pm
Been Liked: 3321 times
Has Liked: 601 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:25 pm

hampsteadclaret wrote:Of course it was directed at you.. :) and I doubt very much what you say in your first sent..

No.. not gonna go there.
Of course you doubt it hampstead....it wouldn't be you without that superior patronising tone you love to adopt.

As for what is a "proper Brexit" ?....i`ll google it like you say - that should do the trick....cheers for the advice.

hampsteadclaret
Posts: 3235
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:25 am
Been Liked: 1110 times
Has Liked: 802 times

Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by hampsteadclaret » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:29 pm

claretspice wrote:And why was the deal that was before Parliament last night not a "Proper Brexit"?

claretspice...good afternoon..if I answer your question responsibly, with a semi-detailed response I will get a lorry-load of responses, follow up questions and the like, either being abusive or trying to catch me out - I quite like that game sometimes, but I can't spend all afternoon on here tapping on my keyboard...I really have better more fulfilling things to do.

I know in my own head I think, what 'proper Brexit' is, and we ain't going to get it.

Locked