Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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Lancasterclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:33 am

This is where I'm a bit hazy, but its not pure WTO rules between EU and Japan at the moment, but it would be between Japan and UK if we leave without a deal.

And how that all works is way beyond the level I'm up to, but to suggest there wouldn't be issues is a tad optimistic.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:33 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:
Insulting 17.4 million people and being hysterical simultaneously!

:lol:

Can someone help this clown enrol in some self-awareness classes?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:42 am

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-21/wha ... AsGzCOmu38" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Panic down a notch I think.

Next week could be interesting though!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:43 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:This is where I'm a bit hazy, but its not pure WTO rules between EU and Japan at the moment, but it would be between Japan and UK if we leave without a deal.

And how that all works is way beyond the level I'm up to, but to suggest there wouldn't be issues is a tad optimistic.
Be to be optimistic than to be plain wrong. Trade with Japan will not cease on March 30th.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:49 am

dsr wrote:Trade between WTO members is carried out under WTO terms unless there is an agreement between them. Japan and the UK are both members of the WTO. Did your foreign office chum explain why the WTO rules wouldn't apply in this case?
I’m sure the rules would apply. The trouble is they wouldn’t have applied when the boat left these shores some six weeks earlier. So the goods left the U.K. under one process and arrive in Japan under another. One would assume that the paperwork and processes work differently and so the ship would arrive in Japan not having followed due WTO process (and not having paid the import tariff) and therefore will be refused entry. Clearly this would only apply to ships that left before Brexit and arrived after (under WTO rules) so the situation may only exist for six to eight weeks, but I suspect that’s what the Foreign Office chap was talking about.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:00 pm

aggi wrote:That's not really true though is it.

Look at all the brexiteers on here who are against May's deal. That is leaving the EU and they don't want it.
That's because it's a crap deal and it's the MPs who keep voting it out.

Brexiteers want to leave, they've made that clear.

The finer details are what the MPs are bickering over.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:03 pm

Be to be optimistic than to be plain wrong. Trade with Japan will not cease on March 30th.
You need to stop assuming stuff I've not said. Aggis mate didn't say that either. You are very fond of doing stuff like this and its not a good look.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:07 pm

I’ve signed the petition, it’s the only way I think to get things properly moving, we should be leaving on the 29th March irrespective of a no deal, the EU need to realise that we are serious & will no longer be messed about.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Tall Paul » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:09 pm

It's not the EU messing us about.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:10 pm

Tall Paul wrote:It's not the EU messing us about.
I beg to differ.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:12 pm

One would assume the former head of the WTO really knows what he’s talking about when it comes to leaving on WTO rules. His take? Costly chaos.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... SApp_Other
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:13 pm

martin_p wrote:I’m sure the rules would apply. The trouble is they wouldn’t have applied when the boat left these shores some six weeks earlier. So the goods left the U.K. under one process and arrive in Japan under another. One would assume that the paperwork and processes work differently and so the ship would arrive in Japan not having followed due WTO process (and not having paid the import tariff) and therefore will be refused entry. Clearly this would only apply to ships that left before Brexit and arrived after (under WTO rules) so the situation may only exist for six to eight weeks, but I suspect that’s what the Foreign Office chap was talking about.
So will the rule be that all goods have to return to the UK before being sent back? Or will it be that they have to fill in a new form? Or will they have to just throw it into the sea and sea if it washes up somewhere, like in Whisky Galore?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:14 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Maybe this was the reason it was taken down, foreign bots taking it over.

https://order-order.com/2019/03/21/fore ... ignatures/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
[Name : "Ireland" "Code" IT, signaturecount 078"],[Name : "Isle of Man" "Code" IM, signaturecount 140"],
[Name : "Isreal "Code" IL, signaturecount 097"] [Name : "Jamaica "Code" "JM", signaturecount 432"],
[Name : "Japan" "Code" JP, signaturecount "234"], [Name : "Jersey "Code" JE, signaturecount 041"]
[Name : "Mexici "Code" ME, signaturecount 087"],[Name : "Morocco "Code" MO, signaturecount 348"],
[Name : "Monaco "Code" MN, signaturecount 674"],[Name : "Ireland" "Code" IT, signaturecount 078"],
[Name : "Isle of Man" "Code" IM, signaturecount 140"],[Name : "Isreal "Code" IL, signaturecount 097"]
[Name : "Jamaica "Code" "JM", signaturecount 432"],[Name : "UpTheClartets" "Code" UTC signaturecount "234"],
[Name : "Jersey "Code" JE, signaturecount 041"][Name : "Mexici "Code" ME, signaturecount 087"],
[Name : "Morocco "Code" MO, signaturecount 348"],[Name : "Monaco "Code" MN, signaturecount 674"]

Hey look, I can make computer looking BS too and lie to idiots! How easy is that!
north-korea-signatures.png
north-korea-signatures.png (90.34 KiB) Viewed 1546 times

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:18 pm

dsr wrote:Trade between WTO members is carried out under WTO terms unless there is an agreement between them. Japan and the UK are both members of the WTO. Did your foreign office chum explain why the WTO rules wouldn't apply in this case?
As Martin said, the issue seemed to be that they would have been processed under a different trade deal. No-one has said that trade with Japan will cease on 30th March, it's just another example of what no-deal could result in short-term and it's very difficult to mitigate as no-one knows what is going to happen.

He said that something like 25% of the Foreign Office are dealing with Brexit issues at the moment but the planning is limited as there are so many possible scenarios.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:19 pm

dsr wrote:So will the rule be that all goods have to return to the UK before being sent back? Or will it be that they have to fill in a new form? Or will they have to just throw it into the sea and sea if it washes up somewhere, like in Whisky Galore?
Haven’t a clue, I was just explaining why they might be turned away. It may be that they can sit offshore for a few days while it’s sorted out, but I suspect whatever ship the goods are on will have another job lined up so I’m not sure for how long.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:44 pm

I think the one thing that you can confidently predict is that it will cause delays, which transmit down the supply chain, which will result in temporary shortages of various stuff.

Thats just short term, hard term is a lot harder to predict but its a safe bet that costs will go up.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by SmudgetheClaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:46 pm

So Corbyn will debate and crack the kettle on with well known terrorists but walks out cus puppet Chukka is in the room how odd?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by IanMcL » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:46 pm

What leaving EU really means...

An estimated 7,000 jobs could relocate to Europe from the UK "in the near future", according to consultancy EY which has been tracking job moves since the referendum. It amounts to £1tn of assets - up from £800m in the last quarter.

The jobs are high paid and will hit the UK tax base. "The nature of the roles that are shifting, often moving for regulatory reasons, are at the very top of the salary spectrum," EY said, calculating that the loss to the exchequer from employment taxes would be £600m.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by SmudgetheClaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:50 pm

IanMcL wrote:What leaving EU really means...

An estimated 7,000 jobs could relocate to Europe from the UK "in the near future", according to consultancy EY which has been tracking job moves since the referendum. It amounts to £1tn of assets - up from £800m in the last quarter.

The jobs are high paid and will hit the UK tax base. "The nature of the roles that are shifting, often moving for regulatory reasons, are at the very top of the salary spectrum," EY said, calculating that the loss to the exchequer from employment taxes would be £600m.
That can wait we are still waiting for the 800k job losses the £4200 rise in cost of living for families and the economy falling off a cliff if we even voted to leave 8-)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:19 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Hey, it might be, but I think that is fairly unlikely.

Petitions are pointless, but at this moment anything that gets MPs minds on the task in hand is worth a go.
Leadsom has said on the record in Parliament that this one isn't pointless so long as gets enough signatures.
It will be interesting to see how many signatures it gets.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:20 pm

Oooh ENDGAME!

This is exciting, remember folks it all comes down to the final two choices...May's deal or no brexit.

I would have put money on her sneaking her deal through by bribing the DUP again until last night's spectacular blame shift.

In a week and half we'll know for sure.

By the way, something I haven't been able to find out, is she allowed to put her deal to Parliament again?

Has something about it changed sufficiently for the speaker to allow it?

As far as I can see, apart from the messages from May and Brussels it's still the SAME deal which rules it out no?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:23 pm

I'd be more willing to put money on No deal instead of no brexit.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:31 pm

"No Deal" is certainly an option.

It does depend on whether she believe her governments own papers on the effects of a "No Deal" Brexit of course, but the problem that we have had since the start is that the priority of Theresa May is the unity of the Conservative Party, and the larger rump of that wants Brexit.

Based on that, there isn't a lot of places she can go.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:31 pm

A lot of smoke and mirrors doing the rounds today, but I would hazard a guess that nothing much changes at 11pm on March 29th.

I very much hope nothing much changes, because I will be attempting to fly home that day from probably the most vulnerable place possible - Gibraltar, where I am working next week. It'll be interesting to get the feeling over there.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:35 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:"No Deal" is certainly an option.

It does depend on whether she believe her governments own papers on the effects of a "No Deal" Brexit of course, but the problem that we have had since the start is that the priority of Theresa May is the unity of the Conservative Party, and the larger rump of that wants Brexit.

Based on that, there isn't a lot of places she can go.
You're expecting a lot if you want her to work towards breaking up the party by disregarding the referendum result. You'd need Kenneth Clarke for that.

If the majority party in the Commons wants Brexit, and the referendum result is for Brexit, the problem isn't that the PM wants Brexit - it's that she's doing it so badly.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:39 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Maybe this was the reason it was taken down, foreign bots taking it over.

https://order-order.com/2019/03/21/fore ... ignatures/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I wonder whether he was too lazy to do the analysis or decided not to as it would ruin the story.

with blatantly fake signatures arising everywhere from Russia (16 signatures), to Afghanistan (3 signatures), to North Korea (1 signature)

Obviously that had a big impact on the 900,000+ signatures on there.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:40 pm

dsr wrote: If the majority party in the Commons wants Brexit, and the referendum result is for Brexit, the problem isn't that the PM wants Brexit - it's that she's doing it so badly.
There isn’t a majority party in the Commons, that’s the problem.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:40 pm

dsr wrote: If the majority party in the Commons wants Brexit, and the referendum result is for Brexit, the problem isn't that the PM wants Brexit - it's that she's doing it so badly.
Except she doesn't have a majority. She only has a majority with DUP support - as you obviously know - and the DUP aren't supporting her deal (at present).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Vintage Claret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:41 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:A lot of smoke and mirrors doing the rounds today, but I would hazard a guess that nothing much changes at 11pm on March 29th.

I very much hope nothing much changes, because I will be attempting to fly home that day from probably the most vulnerable place possible - Gibraltar, where I am working next week. It'll be interesting to get the feeling over there.
I have the same hope for our flight to Palma.. on 30th June!
We're due to board a cruise ship on 2nd July, first stop.. Gibraltar :?
Last edited by Vintage Claret on Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:42 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:That's because it's a crap deal and it's the MPs who keep voting it out.

Brexiteers want to leave, they've made that clear.

The finer details are what the MPs are bickering over.
But loads of the Brexiteers on here don't want May's deal either. They want out of the EU, but on specific terms (which aren't that clear).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:43 pm

aggi wrote:I wonder whether he was too lazy to do the analysis or decided not to as it would ruin the story.

with blatantly fake signatures arising everywhere from Russia (16 signatures), to Afghanistan (3 signatures), to North Korea (1 signature)

Obviously that had a big impact on the 900,000+ signatures on there.
Why wouldn't there be signatures from foreign countries?
Millions of British citizens living or working abroad, and you would expect them to be largely in support of the petition.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:45 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I very much hope nothing much changes, because I will be attempting to fly home that day from probably the most vulnerable place possible - Gibraltar, where I am working next week.
Not really as you're flying from UK territory to UK territory. The EU will not shut it's airspace to us and Spain is unlikely to invade.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Tall Paul » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:47 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:I'd be more willing to put money on No deal instead of no brexit.
You're on. How much?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:47 pm

aggi wrote:But loads of the Brexiteers on here don't want May's deal either. They want out of the EU, but on specific terms (which aren't that clear).
Maybe it's because they don't know all the finer details required to get out with a half decent deal :roll:

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:50 pm

aggi wrote:I wonder whether he was too lazy to do the analysis or decided not to as it would ruin the story.
It's not a story it's a lie.
There's no evidence to back up the claims, only a tiny picture of a load of text which is made us BS, I made my own above.
Calling it a story or news gives it far to much respect.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:57 pm

CombatClaret wrote:It's not a story it's a lie.
There's no evidence to back up the claims, only a tiny picture of a load of text which is made us BS, I made my own above.
Calling it a story or news gives it far to much respect.
The text is the JSON download of the petition. If you look closely at it you can actually see that one of the bits he's highlighted has North Korea with just one signature. Obviously a huge impact.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:00 pm

Gov borrowing at 17 year low. That brexit has really ****** things up

http://news.sky.com/story/pre-brexit-ch ... a-11671630" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:06 pm

Except she doesn't have a majority. She only has a majority with DUP support - as you obviously know - and the DUP aren't supporting her deal (at present).
Well worth mentioning that the DUP are concerned with the UK treating NI the same as the rest of the UK. Mays deal doesn't do that, but remain does, and that is something that the ERG are well aware of.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by android » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:21 pm

summitclaret wrote:Gov borrowing at 17 year low. That brexit has really ****** things up

http://news.sky.com/story/pre-brexit-ch ... a-11671630" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Thanks for that. Like all good economic news in the past 3 years, you have to look really hard to find that on the BBC website. How they would have loved a stockpiling food headline.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:23 pm

One thing I won't miss about the Brexit arguments is the hilarious narrative that the media is biased against Brexit.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CombatClaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:35 pm

aggi wrote:The text is the JSON download of the petition. If you look closely at it you can actually see that one of the bits he's highlighted has North Korea with just one signature. Obviously a huge impact.
:D :D
Don't even legitimize it to mock them.
BTW here's the JSON count file of the petition page, it tells you a number and nothing more.
petition.jpg
petition.jpg (288.98 KiB) Viewed 1361 times

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by android » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:38 pm

Give over Lancs - you're not that daft!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:48 pm

android wrote:Thanks for that. Like all good economic news in the past 3 years, you have to look really hard to find that on the BBC website. How they would have loved a stockpiling food headline.
Also wages rising in real terms and record employment. We have never had it so bad.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:52 pm

Give over Lancs - you're not that daft!
And neither are you to believe that nonsense.

I'm going to be very interested to see who Brexiteers blame after we leave for everything.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Rick_Muller » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:55 pm

CombatClaret wrote::D :D
Don't even legitimize it to mock them.
BTW here's the JSON count file of the petition page, it tells you a number and nothing more.
you can link to the JSON file in Excel and analyse the data for yourself. Over 96% of the votes are UK based.

Here are the countries with over 100 (and Hungary with 99)votes as of 10 minutes ago...
petition.JPG
petition.JPG (88.78 KiB) Viewed 1335 times
For balance, I have included the leave with no deal petition here too... those pesky 'mericans trying to tinker with our democratic process...
petition2.JPG
petition2.JPG (45.59 KiB) Viewed 1329 times
Last edited by Rick_Muller on Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:03 pm

TUC and CBI issue joint statement saying the country is facing an "national emergency"

Its bizarre just how many organisations don't share the absolute confidence of the man in the street isn't it?

Its almost like they might know something about it.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by android » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:08 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:And neither are you to believe that nonsense.

I'm going to be very interested to see who Brexiteers blame after we leave for everything.
My main source of news is the BBC website. I look at it every day. Since the referendum it has carried a clear and obvious bias against Brexit. That is all I am talking about not other media, which I am less knowledgeable about. You no doubt disagree in the same way you didn't think Bercow's personal views were influencing his decisions. So be it.

Don't think it has anything to do with any post Brexit blame game though. That's guaranteed to go on for years and years though isn't it. All very depressing!
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aggi
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:19 pm

CombatClaret wrote::D :D
Don't even legitimize it to mock them.
BTW here's the JSON count file of the petition page, it tells you a number and nothing more.
petition.jpg
There's an option to download the full data on the website for all of those petitions. Gives you signatures by country and constituency.

Lancasterclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:41 pm

My main source of news is the BBC website. I look at it every day. Since the referendum it has carried a clear and obvious bias against Brexit.
Its got whole sub-sections dedicated to Brexit though.

And in all of them, even when a point is absolutely proved to be false, because of its decision to define "balance" as allowing one completely incorrect assertion to be given alongside a perfectly correct one, then there is always "balance" in the piece.

They get attacked on both side for this, which is a pretty good hint that they are about as balanced as it possible to be over this.

Its good to see a Brexit backer acknowledging that this process has got years to go, and that it magically doesn't stop next Friday.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Rick_Muller » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:46 pm

petition for revoking Article 50 has broken the website...

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47652071" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well over 1M registered the last time I looked, grown to that in less than 24 hours as far as I can tell (after being low level for about a week)

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