Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:02 am

nil_desperandum wrote:What all 17.4 million of them?
That's the problem. Despite all you will protest there were a wide range of expectations from leavers in 2016.
If they all wanted a free trade deal, (inc. the ERG), then May's deal would have passed by now.
I am confused, you mention a free trade deal. What we have now is a withdrawal agreement. Once that’s agreed or not as the case may be, the EU will start talking about a trade deal.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:04 am

I read quite a lot of the chatter but after a few glasses of wine thought best not join in.

What I want to ask remainers is.

If we stay in the EU, what do you see the EU looking like in 20 years??

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:16 am

AndyClaret wrote:Not according to polling expert John Curtis, it depends on the question you ask, and some have been asking the "do you want a public vote" question without explicitly saying remain would be on the ballot paper.
Everyone replying that they want a public vote knows exactly what they’re asking for!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:16 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:I read quite a lot of the chatter but after a few glasses of wine thought best not join in.

What I want to ask remainers is.

If we stay in the EU, what do you see the EU looking like in 20 years??
The same as now, but with hover-boards.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:18 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:I read quite a lot of the chatter but after a few glasses of wine thought best not join in.

What I want to ask remainers is.

If we stay in the EU, what do you see the EU looking like in 20 years??
Whatever we, along with other members, want it to look like. But crucially, with our veto, we can stop anything we think too outlandish.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:35 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:I read quite a lot of the chatter but after a few glasses of wine thought best not join in.

What I want to ask remainers is.

If we stay in the EU, what do you see the EU looking like in 20 years??
I think it's impossible to answer this without the context of what the world itself would look like in twenty years.

We face the huge problem of climate change, while at the same time we've seen a growth in authoritarian regimes around the world - Russia, China, and we might see added to these Brazil and US - who increasingly avoid the question of climate change. If these trends continue, then Europe could be a beacon of hope in a dismal world.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:48 am

So you guys don’t have a view on subjects like!

The EU wanting to take control of all members fiscal policy??

There will be a need for a European army?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:56 am

I did listen to radio 4 this week and there was an EU expert on there.

One thing he explained was and this is dates are important ar the moment.

We the UK have 75 MEP’s, I was surprised it was that many.

The EU have already re-allocated 26 seats to other countries in the forthcoming elections, therefore if we are in they have to undo that and give us our 75 seats back. Apparently it’s mandatory EU law that people have to MEP’s representatives if they are members of the EU.

Hence the reason it could not be extended beyond the 22nd, and Our Gov should have known that.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by JohnMcGreal » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:16 am

Good luck to anyone who's attending the march in London today. It looks like it's going to be a big one and the timing of it couldn't be better.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:17 am

Bordeauxclaret wrote:You tried it twice to see if it would let you, then though oh I’ll do it a third time just to check. You then thought I’ll check again a forth time, oh look that’s worked. Just to be absolutely sure I’ll try it a 5th time.

Sounds plausible.
Cynic.

That’s the way to evaluate something like this. I have tried two approaches I explained last night, first examining the flaws in the technology, and then examining the data patterns from the API feed, by constituency.

My conclusion is that there is a high degree of probability that the approx 4m votes on that petition are fake news, the true figure is a fraction of that, probably just 1m.

But, for clarity, Lancs is right on what he replied - it is a boost for May’s deal as well as any softer Brexit. The Brexiteer side no longer has any establishment leadership, no petitions or marches, so the momentum is all towards the inevitably soft Brexit, even though Leave voters are mainly not changed their minds, nor their determination.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:17 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:So you guys don’t have a view on subjects like!

The EU wanting to take control of all members fiscal policy??

There will be a need for a European army?
I'm not worried by further European integration. Most Europeans can see it's entirely possible to be more than one thing at once - A Berliner, a German, and a European, for example. The French, Belgians, and Romanians are just as proud of their national heritage and countries as Britons are. Will national politicians be comfortable handing over "all" fiscal policy to the EU? I very much doubt that, and what would be the point when some decisions are better made locally? Some, such as tax policy would make sense. Why have twenty seven or twenty eight different tax regimes that multinational corporations doing business across all the countries can just bounce their products around in an internal market regardless of how much it earns in various countries. So there are areas where greater fiscal integration will make sense. As for the military - we already work in an integrated environment with NATO, though the US has indicated for some time now that it doesn't consider the resources they put into it is worth it - so the EU would be wise to consider an alternative (or to take more control of NATO). If European military forces already work in an integrated sense with other European military forces, then why have people not complained about that?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:29 am

I read quite a lot of the chatter but after a few glasses of wine thought best not join in.

What I want to ask remainers is.

If we stay in the EU, what do you see the EU looking like in 20 years??
Impossible to answer without a global context I reckon

Pretty soon, we are going to have face reality as a planet, and when we do, then some awfully big decisions are going to have to be made. Judging by Brexit and how toxic it has got, then that won't be a good time for anyone.

I do fear that large swathes of the pop of the UK think because we are an island, that this will magically be something we read about on the news. And again, judging by how toxic the Brexit debate has got, that isn't the most sensible way to think.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:44 am

More on the BOTs are running the remain petition

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-47668946" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:51 am

JohnMcGreal wrote:Good luck to anyone who's attending the march in London today. It looks like it's going to be a big one and the timing of it couldn't be better.
Lots of pictures of old people who are going on the losers March, I thought all the gammon voted leave?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:15 am

martin_p wrote:Everyone replying that they want a public vote knows exactly what they’re asking for!
I thought it was us leavers that had had enough of experts?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:15 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:I read quite a lot of the chatter but after a few glasses of wine thought best not join in.

What I want to ask remainers is.

If we stay in the EU, what do you see the EU looking like in 20 years??
The disunited states of Germany and France of course and Scotland desperately trying to get out.
Last edited by summitclaret on Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:15 am

AndyClaret wrote:Lots of pictures of old people who are going on the losers March, I thought all the gammon voted leave?
Clear evidence of people changing their minds!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:21 am

They think it is the queue for Switzerland
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:39 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:So you guys don’t have a view on subjects like!

The EU wanting to take control of all members fiscal policy??

There will be a need for a European army?
I'm sure "you guys", (whoever exactly you are referring to) hold differing views, but mine is pretty simple.
Whilst we remain in the EU we can veto all that. if we leave and then try to return we can pretty much say goodbye to that veto.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:42 am

AndyClaret wrote:Lots of pictures of old people who are going on the losers March, I thought all the gammon voted leave?
There are a lot of retired people who voted remain, (about a quarter) and they are amongst the most passionate, so it should be no surprise to see them involved.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:46 am

nil_desperandum wrote:There are a lot of retired people who voted remain, (about a quarter) and they are amongst the most passionate, so it should be no surprise to see them involved.
I'm not seeing pictures of coach loads of young people.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:52 am

AndyClaret wrote:I'm not seeing pictures of coach loads of young people.
Too early in the day on a Saturday for them yet. Some not home long after a Friday night out. :)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Darthlaw » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:02 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Too early in the day on a Saturday for them yet. Some not home long after a Friday night out. :)
Interesting that the people’s vote March website has achieved 3.1% of their £250k target

What’s that, about 5p per attendee today? That’s what I call commitment to the cause.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by SmudgetheClaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:17 am

Let’s be clear it’s not a people’s march it’s a remainers march 8-)
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:26 am

Wouldn't be surprised to see Rudd, Liddington, Greening et el on the march.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by SmudgetheClaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:52 am

Question to remainers let’s say 6 million leave voter did a petition for no deal and a million people descended on London to demand to leave would you take it seriously? exactly

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:08 pm

My dog, cat, goldfish, ferret, budgie, horse and rabbit all voted last time and they tell me it is only people that can vote when the remainer HOC gets its way. Should I start a petition?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:51 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:More on the BOTs are running the remain petition

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-47668946" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A good, well balanced article.

BOTs have done it before but it seems to me that passionate Remainers using every advantage to chuck a handful of petitions at it is the most likely thing happening. The article rightly points out that petitioning is not meant to be as secure as voting.

Anyway, in wider news is seems like the whips have said to May her time is up and declare her resignation date in the Sunday papers (buzzfeed), but Gavin Barwell has countered by suggesting she can give the Brexit Dept total independence with a big hitter like Gove running it.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:51 pm

1 Million people marched to stop the invasion of Iraq, that went well....

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:05 pm

they want a 2nd referendum
How about a General Election with all Remain MP's standing on that platform.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:06 pm

We need to take a longer extension, get a brexiteer PM, prepare for no deal properly but say we much prefer a free trade deal. That is what brexit meant and means.

The new PM should be on runoff between Rudd and a brexiteer. The latter will win and should make it clear in their 'manifesto' that its a free trade deal or a managed no deal if we can't get one. Also that if the tory remainers frustrate then its a GE for a free trade deal with a manage no deal if not. Pitted against Corbyn and his probable CU subject to a referendum.

Edit. We now know that the EU have blinked on extension and avoiding no deal. So this is the time to exploit that weakness. Ireland can't have no deal.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:28 pm

summitclaret wrote: The new PM should be on runoff between Rudd and a brexiteer. The latter will win and should make it clear in their 'manifesto' that its a free trade deal or a managed no deal if we can't get one.
The one major flaw in your theory, is that there is simply no way that the current crop of Tory MPs would unite behind a brexiteer, so it leaves the Tory party far more divided than Labour is.
Only one winner in Hastings (e.g.) if Rudd were to stand as an independent Conservative: Labour
Rudd + Ukip votes in 2017 numbered just over 1500 more than Labour.
Once you split that vote between Tory(brexiteer) candidate, Brexit Party, and Rudd in a hastily called election Labour would romp home. And it's the same in many seats. That's why the Tories are desperate to avoid an election. It doesn't matter what opinion polls say about which party is ahead, we use a Fptp system, and a divided Tory Party is highly unlikely to fare well.
It's also why they're desperate to avoid running candidates in the forthcoming EU elections.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:33 pm

SmudgetheClaret wrote:Question to remainers let’s say 6 million leave voter did a petition for no deal and a million people descended on London to demand to leave would you take it seriously? exactly
But you shouldn't be addressing that question to remainers.
If you are saying would MPs and political parties take it seriously then the answer is almost certainly yes.
Politicians generally "go with the flow", so if (e.g.) "Murdoch", The Sun, The Mail and the Telegraph suddenly come out in favour of a referendum or revocation of Article 50, then so will the politicians in all likelihood. [It's how it works - unfortunately].
Both the press and the political parties like to be on the "winning" side.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by South West Claret. » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:35 pm

The longer it goes on the more chance in my book of us staying in the EU.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:38 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:The one major flaw in your theory, is that there is simply no way that the current crop of Tory MPs would unite behind a brexiteer, so it leaves the Tory party far more divided than Labour is.
Only one winner in Hastings (e.g.) if Rudd were to stand as an independent Conservative: Labour
Rudd + Ukip votes in 2017 numbered just over 1500 more than Labour.
Once you split that vote between Tory(brexiteer) candidate, Brexit Party, and Rudd in a hastily called election Labour would romp home. And it's the same in many seats. That's why the Tories are desperate to avoid an election. It doesn't matter what opinion polls say about which party is ahead, we use a Fptp system, and a divided Tory Party is highly unlikely to fare well.
It's also why they're desperate to avoid running candidates in the forthcoming EU elections.
The brexit party would get the most votes in any euro election and i doubt tories would put candidates up. However, if there was a GE with the tory policy as I outlined above I doubt a brexit party would get involved.

As regards the tory remainers any from leave constituencies would not be candidates if they did not sign up to the new direction.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:45 pm

summitclaret wrote:The brexit party would get the most votes in any euro election and i doubt tories would put candidates up. However, if there was a GE with the tory policy as I outlined above I doubt a brexit party would get involved.

As regards the tory remainers any from leave constituencies would not be candidates if they did not sign up to the new direction.
Why would they not be candidates? Who would stop them? And if they chose not to stand they could throw their weight behind the strongest Pro-EU candidate. They will no doubt have quite a lot of personal support in their constituency so they would no doubt significantly erode the core Tory vote.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by SmudgetheClaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:46 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:But you shouldn't be addressing that question to remainers.
If you are saying would MPs and political parties take it seriously then the answer is almost certainly yes.
Politicians generally "go with the flow", so if (e.g.) "Murdoch", The Sun, The Mail and the Telegraph suddenly come out in favour of a referendum or revocation of Article 50, then so will the politicians in all likelihood. [It's how it works - unfortunately].
Both the press and the political parties like to be on the "winning" side.
Democracy RIP✝
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:58 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Why would they not be candidates? Who would stop them? And if they chose not to stand they could throw their weight behind the strongest Pro-EU candidate. They will no doubt have quite a lot of personal support in their constituency so they would no doubt significantly erode the core Tory vote.
They dont have constituencies in any meaningful ways. Just on a list. No direct connection to people.

The tory party would not allow them to stand as tories. You can vote which party you like but Farage would absolutely win overall.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:09 pm

Its hilarious, mp after mp campaigning for a second referendum saying the people must decide. Then asked have you signed the petition to revoke Article 50 and end Brexit, thinking and tgen saying yes. Absolute democrats.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:11 pm

summitclaret wrote:They dont have constituencies in any meaningful ways. Just on a list. No direct connection to people.

The tory party would not allow them to stand as tories. You can vote which party you like but Farage would absolutely win overall.
You've moved the goalposts. You were talking about Rudd etc, with Tories running on a "hard brexit" ticket at a snap General Election, which would have the FPTP system. Why bring the EU elections into it? (nothing to do with the point I was making, about the Tories being impossibly split.
EU elections don't have FPTP, and it's highly doubtful that a new party formed by Farage would get anything like 50% of the votes.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:13 pm

SmudgetheClaret wrote:Democracy RIP✝
Well that happened a long time ago when we started allowing the likes of Murdoch to dictate public opinion and influence political decisions.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:19 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:You've moved the goalposts. You were talking about Rudd etc, with Tories running on a "hard brexit" ticket at a snap General Election, which would have the FPTP system. Why bring the EU elections into it? (nothing to do with the point I was making, about the Tories being impossibly split.
EU elections don't have FPTP, and it's highly doubtful that a new party formed by Farage would get anything like 50% of the votes.
I not talking about a snap GE rather one called by a new tory leader 'elected' with a clear mandate.

Also no one mentioned 50% of a euro vote. Just who would be the biggest party.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:23 pm

SmudgetheClaret wrote:Question to remainers let’s say 6 million leave voter did a petition for no deal and a million people descended on London to demand to leave would you take it seriously? exactly
There's no way one million leave voters could save enough dole money to "descend" on London.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Darthlaw » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:26 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:There's no way one million leave voters could save enough dole money to "descend" on London.
And yet all peoples vote can get together is £7750 towards their £250k target. How ironic.

Still, at least some got a free bus into London for their shopping trip, today.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Steve-Harpers-perm » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:27 pm

Don’t worry multi millionaire man of the people Nige has just promised in front of his Dads Army supporters onSky News he will lead the fight against the establishment again if we don’t crash out next Friday and has promised ‘no more Mr Nice Guy’.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:31 pm

Screenshot_20190323-142923_Twitter.jpg
Screenshot_20190323-142923_Twitter.jpg (703.08 KiB) Viewed 1072 times
The absolute state of this pregnant man and his foul mouthed offspring

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:35 pm

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Your dad is not taking the divorce well

Jakubclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:38 pm

Damo wrote:
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The absolute state of this pregnant man and his foul mouthed offspring
I think Scotland do want to stop in, 1 of the proclaimers has even joined the cause.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:41 pm

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Hahahahaha

Bordeauxclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:46 pm

Got you rattled has this Damo hasn’t it.

Hang tough.
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