Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:38 am

Even if we sort this out, the implications are not great

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKCN1Q718N" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Plus anyone thinking of getting a great kids bike, you cannot go wrong with an Isla bike!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:28 am

lots and lots of talk about how probelmeatic a Customs Union will be.

Yes, it will be, but its like Mays deal, its a compromise that is worse than we have now but better than a "No Deal".

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:22 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:lots and lots of talk about how probelmeatic a Customs Union will be.

Yes, it will be, but its like Mays deal, its a compromise that is worse than we have now but better than a "No Deal".

No Deal is to be referred to as ‘Clean Brexit’

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:30 pm

martin_p wrote:I’ll help you out here, we are sovereign.

Are we truly, if other countries are making some of our laws?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:37 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:No Deal is to be referred to as ‘Clean Brexit’

You can call it whatever you want, but without proper long term planning and modelling of the likely effects, its still the worst possible outcome.

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:48 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:Are we truly, if other countries are making some of our laws?

Yes we truly are, and have been throughout our EU membership, according to the government's Brexit white paper.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:56 pm

Good explanation of what a "Customs Union" is

https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/stat ... 5768207362" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:39 pm

Labour are whipping for Common Market 2.0 which is customs union and staying in the single market. Based on the last vote if the Labour whip holds it looks like it’ll have enough support to win.

Maybe May won’t think that’s too bad as she can bring her much defeated deal back a fourth time and say ‘look it’s my deal or a very soft Brexit’.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:49 pm

martin_p wrote:Labour are whipping for Common Market 2.0 which is customs union and staying in the single market. Based on the last vote if the Labour whip holds it looks like it’ll have enough support to win.

Maybe May won’t think that’s too bad as she can bring her much defeated deal back a fourth time and say ‘look it’s my deal or a very soft Brexit’.

I'm curious how Labour are going to sell Common Market 2.0 in seats like Burnley,if you pursue that policy FOM is part of the package,TBH if the UK is committed to staying in the CU/SM we might as well stay in the whole kit and kaboodle.

You're correct that Labour may have given May a way out here,i can't see many ERG MP'S liking the prospect of a very soft brexit,and it doesn't need many to flip for MV4 to pass,if of course that vote ever happens.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:55 pm

tiger76 wrote:I'm curious how Labour are going to sell Common Market 2.0 in seats like Burnley,if you pursue that policy FOM is part of the package,TBH if the UK is committed to staying in the CU/SM we might as well stay in the whole kit and kaboodle.

You're correct that Labour may have given May a way out here,i can't see many ERG MP'S liking the prospect of a very soft brexit,and it doesn't need many to flip for MV4 to pass,if of course that vote ever happens.

That said, a Brexiteer MP who changed his vote to support May's deal has just stood up in the Commons and said he regrets doing it and letting the DUP down. So one would assume that if there is another vote he'll be back in the 'no' lobby.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:03 pm

tiger76 wrote:I'm curious how Labour are going to sell Common Market 2.0 in seats like Burnley,if you pursue that policy FOM is part of the package,TBH if the UK is committed to staying in the CU/SM we might as well stay in the whole kit and kaboodle.

You're correct that Labour may have given May a way out here,i can't see many ERG MP'S liking the prospect of a very soft brexit,and it doesn't need many to flip for MV4 to pass,if of course that vote ever happens.

It needs every single Conservative MP to switch. All of them.

There are a hardcore who don't live in the real world. They'd fit right in on here.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:05 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:It needs every single Conservative MP to switch. All of them.

There are a hardcore who don't live in the real world. They'd fit right in on here.

Given that there were two extra Labour rebels in the last vote I think the government can afford two Tories not to vote for it. Still an impossible task mind you.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:12 pm

Thats the bit I don't get.

They are worried about a "No Deal" affecting their workers jobs (quite correctly) but willing to back something that a new Conservative Government to turn into whatever it wanted.

But hey, sadly some of this lot don't think in a joined up way, so I'll leave them to it.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:15 pm

martin_p wrote:Labour are whipping for Common Market 2.0 which is customs union and staying in the single market. Based on the last vote if the Labour whip holds it looks like it’ll have enough support to win.

Maybe May won’t think that’s too bad as she can bring her much defeated deal back a fourth time and say ‘look it’s my deal or a very soft Brexit’.

You might as well stay in in this scenario.

I want us to leave, but think Parliament will not allow it.

Hence me joining the new Brexit Party !

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:24 pm

martin_p wrote:Labour are whipping for Common Market 2.0 which is customs union and staying in the single market. Based on the last vote if the Labour whip holds it looks like it’ll have enough support to win.

Maybe May won’t think that’s too bad as she can bring her much defeated deal back a fourth time and say ‘look it’s my deal or a very soft Brexit’.

Common Market 2.0 doesn't end free movement so it doesn't comply with Labour's election manifesto.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:32 pm

They lost. It doesn't count.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:18 pm

I seem to remember the original premise of this thread was that Rowls was highlighting what Remainers were doing to show how well Brexit was really going. It's not a concept that has aged well:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-47774254" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Murger · Post by **Murger** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:30 pm

Remainer stitch up in full flow it seems.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:37 pm

Or the hard Brexit motions failing two crucial tests

- Not enough votes for them when they were done on Friday
- No chance of agreement with the EU if they get passed

There is "reality", and there is some fantasy wish list that far too many still think is perfectly possible.

EDIT - he probably should have allowed one, but it is essentially a waste of everyone's time, so a sensible person can see why he hasn't.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:49 pm

Boobs galore at the moment.

Pretty ropey, but still better than looking at Andrew Bridgen.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:18 pm

Nick Boles gave excellent speech explaining his Common Market 2.0 proposal.

1. Doesn't stop free movement but does allow 'emergency brake' in exceptional circumstances.
2. In the single market and 'closely aligned' to the customs union.
3. This solves the Ireland border problem.
4. Still possible to negotiate independent trade deals.
5. Will still have to pay into the EU but should be 'about half' of our current payment.
6. Only under jurisdiction of the ECJ for trade issues and not political issues.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:18 pm

Mala591 wrote:Common Market 2.0 doesn't end free movement so it doesn't comply with Labour's election manifesto.

Not strictly true as I understand it. If it's the Norway model then it does allow some curbs on movement of people, but not total control. (That's what an "expert" said on the radio).
Incidentally Labour's manifesto is technically irrelevant since they lost.

Burnley Ace · Post by **Burnley Ace** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:26 pm

Mala591 wrote:Nick Boles gave excellent speech explaining his Common Market 2.0 proposal.

1. Doesn't stop free movement but does allow 'emergency brake' in exceptional circumstances.
2. In the single market and 'closely aligned' to the customs union.
3. This solves the Ireland border problem.
4. Still possible to negotiate independent trade deals.
5. Will still have to pay into the EU but should be 'about half' of our current payment.
6. Only under jurisdiction of the ECJ for trade issues and not political issues.

Nick ******** talking boles

1. Who decides what are exceptional circumstances? We can already control immigration but choose not to.
2. It’s not possible to negotiate independent trade deals on areas that are covered by EU agreements, we will also be tied to any future EU deals.
3. Paying in but getting no rebate.
4. Still under ECJ for 4 pillars as well

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:35 pm

Murger wrote:Remainer stitch up in full flow it seems.

They're not even being subtle about it anymore,of course all these votes are non-binding,so the government could ignore them.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:37 pm

Its not though.

They are trying to find a motion that will pass so we avoid a "No Deal".

The Brexit motions were essentially "No Deal" which we do automatically on April 12th. Fairly pointless having a debate on it as its the default position.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:40 pm

tiger76 wrote:They're not even being subtle about it anymore,of course all these votes are non-binding,so the government could ignore them.

Non-binding. Like the referendum itself.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:43 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:Non-binding. Like the referendum itself.

Correct like most of the rest of the country i just want a decision to be reached one way or the other.

Then we can all focus on other important issues which are being sidelined due to the brexit impasse.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:46 pm

tiger76 wrote:Correct like most of the rest of the country i just want a decision to be reached one way or the other.

Then we can all focus on other important issues which are being sidelined due to the brexit impasse.

Yep, I can certainly agree with that. The last 3 years have been a criminal waste of time, resources and money.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:47 pm

tiger76 wrote:Correct like most of the rest of the country i just want a decision to be reached one way or the other.

Then we can all focus on other important issues which are being sidelined due to the brexit impasse.

The only way this stops is if Article 50 is revoked.

After we leave, then the argument about everything else starts.

It is a sad fact that this is not simple, and the amount of work and negotiation still to be done will take years.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:07 pm

It wouldn't be stopped with Article 50 being revoked, if anything it could make things worse.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:08 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Not strictly true as I understand it. If it's the Norway model then it does allow some curbs on movement of people, but not total control. (That's what an "expert" said on the radio).
Incidentally Labour's manifesto is technically irrelevant since they lost.

Its being spun. There would minimal if any control of immigration.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:09 pm

Nothing is going to happen that will please the ultra-brexiteers.

So you might as well make sure the economy is ok as a priority.

And to be perfectly honest, the way the ultra-brexiteers are talking, they'd rather risk a Corbyn government than give up on their dreams of a "No Deal" Brexit.

Which just about sums them up.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Its not though.

They are trying to find a motion that will pass so we avoid a "No Deal".

The Brexit motions were essentially "No Deal" which we do automatically on April 12th. Fairly pointless having a debate on it as its the default position.

If i was pm i would take a motion saying it won't be no deal and we should not revoke and there should not be a referendum. Thst should shut the extremists at bith ends up.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:14 pm

summitclaret wrote:If i was pm i would take a motion saying it won't be no deal and we should not revoke and there should not be a referendum. Thst should shut the extremists at bith ends up.

Its not a bad idea, but it the problem is she won't do that as it would split the Conservative Party.

I mean, its got to happen this week, but being the leader who destroyed the Conservative Party isn't something she's terribly keen on!

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:22 pm

I have not heard any mps or pundits saying that we could have a referendum simply yes or no to May's deal ( no remain option). However as may faces the split of her party she might try it. It would also give a reason for the EU to extend.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:27 pm

We will have a better idea what might fly at about 10 pm tonight

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:31 pm

summitclaret wrote:If i was pm i would take a motion saying it won't be no deal and we should not revoke and there should not be a referendum. Thst should shut the extremists at bith ends up.

I think we've seen that describing what brexit won't be doesn't make what it will be any easier to arrive at. The house is at a logjam. As the clock ticks toward midnight they won't allow a no deal brexit, and they won't revoke article 50. There will be no other choice at the end other than bring it back to the people.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:08 pm

AndrewJB wrote:I think we've seen that describing what brexit won't be doesn't make what it will be any easier to arrive at. The house is at a logjam. As the clock ticks toward midnight they won't allow a no deal brexit, and they won't revoke article 50. There will be no other choice at the end other than bring it back to the people.

Nice wishful thinking that’d go down like a tonne of S**t, more people need to relax & embrace & plan for a no deal, I’ve got the champagne on ice in such a eventuality as many others will, winning the lottery well before attending a dignitas clinic, so much promise awaits for the working class the more vocal posters argue otherwise for a well known reason.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:12 pm

Great, if you could fill us all in why its not going to be bad that would be great.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:11 pm

AndrewJB wrote:I think we've seen that describing what brexit won't be doesn't make what it will be any easier to arrive at. The house is at a logjam. As the clock ticks toward midnight they won't allow a no deal brexit, and they won't revoke article 50. There will be no other choice at the end other than bring it back to the people.

How will that help? If, as you say, they will not accept a no-deal Brexit, and we already know they will not accept a Brexit deal acceptable to the EU, then the only reason to "bring it back to the people" would be to let us keep on voting until we get it "right".

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:11 pm

All four options rejected. Three of the very close though. Don’t think this helps the PM.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:12 pm

No changes tonight (possibly one more for customs union)

Someone, somewhere is going to have to compromise, though the support for a 2nd ref/PV keeps getting more each time.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Great, if you could fill us all in why its not going to be bad that would be great.

Oh, it's bound to be bad. Remember the EMU and how we were forced out of that, and how bad that was going to be? Remember the Euro, and how we didn't go in, and how bad that was going to be? It'll be twice that bad.

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:13 pm

martin_p wrote:All four options rejected. Three of the very close though. Don’t think this helps the PM.

Blow her it doesn’t do much for the Country either.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:15 pm

Boles quits the Conservative Party, so thats another MP gone.

Think that means she's officially a minority government now.

GE is an absolute certainty I reckon.

Steve-Harpers-perm · Post by **Steve-Harpers-perm** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:16 pm

Nick Boles has resigned from the Tory Party.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:17 pm

dsr wrote:Oh, it's bound to be bad. Remember the EMU and how we were forced out of that, and how bad that was going to be? Remember the Euro, and how we didn't go in, and how bad that was going to be? It'll be twice that bad.

Its almost like you don't have a clue what you are talking about.

ERM and Euro are absolutely nothing to do with us losing all our UK-EU deals overnight.

You know this, or if you don't, then you shouldn't be contributing to this.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:18 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Boles quits the Conservative Party, so thats another MP gone.

Think that means she's officially a minority government now.

GE is an absolute certainty I reckon.

Not until the Tories have a leader, I shouldn't think. There's no way May can "lead" them into a general election. Problem is, she might resign and not leave long enough for a members' vote, and the MPs might continue to defy the Tory membership and vote for a Remainer.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:21 pm

dsr wrote:Not until the Tories have a leader, I shouldn't think. There's no way May can "lead" them into a general election. Problem is, she might resign and not leave long enough for a members' vote, and the MPs might continue to defy the Tory membership and vote for a Remainer.

I regard you as a pretty out there Brexiteer. But you are completely sensible compared to the likes of Steve Baker and Bill Cash. They'd bring down their own government to try to get their bespoke personal Brexit.

Common sense is in too short supply down there, but there is still hope they can sort something out.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:22 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Its almost like you don't have a clue what you are talking about.

ERM and Euro are absolutely nothing to do with us losing all our UK-EU deals overnight.

You know this, or if you don't, then you shouldn't be contributing to this.

Too subtle, sorry.

What I was saying, in simple terms, is:

1. The economists made desperately gloomy forecasts about failing to join the Euro. They were wrong.
2. The ecomonists made desperately gloomy forecasts about crashing out of the ERM. They were wrong.

Does this mean they are certainly wrong about Brexit? No. Does it mean that we can take their advice about Brexit as if it was gospel truth? Well, you presumably think so. I don't.