Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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dsr
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Seen that, its the only time its been mentioned, so I'm going to go with the current information.
No, it's been mentioned many other times. Probably not in the sort pf paper that reinforces your views, though.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:44 pm

Okay, so its nothing to worry about and its not as issue.

Great

(it is though, and you know that as well as I do)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:44 pm

Tall Paul wrote:I trust you replied to the email and your application is underway then?

If I thought I would stand a small chance of being selected I would, but I would be wasting my time.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:51 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Okay, so its nothing to worry about and its not as issue.

Great

(it is though, and you know that as well as I do)
It's no issue on this side, because the UK isn't going to impose tariffs at first, and will use technology to apply the rules without a physical barrier at the border. (I know you have an issue with the use of technology on this subject.) The Irish may be less able to use the technology, but even so, there is no need for an immediate Berlin Wall. WTO rules allow them to work towards a solution - the EU isn't going to be immediately chucked out just becuase they haven't yet built their wall in the Republic of Ireland (and in Monaco, and around Andorra and Liechtenstein, and across St Maarten, and a few other EU land borders that come under similar rules.)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:52 pm

Bacchus wrote:The amount of lazy bullshit on this thread increases by the day. Today it seems that lots of people think that being an MEP is an easy job with a huge salary and yet, remarkably, none of these people have actually set about getting themselves elected as MEPs to take advantage of all that easy money. They'll criticise MEPs for being on the 'gravy train' while rallying behind it's most prolific passenger in Farage. We're even adding travel expenses on to people's salaries to make it look like they earn far more than they do. I assume the people making these claims fund any work related expenditure out of their own back pockets, otherwise they'd be terrible hypocrites, right?

Another myth I'm sick of hearing about is the one where other countries make our laws, instead of the reality where Europe wide laws are decided by a European Parliament at which the UK has one of the loudest voices. Allowing reality to be continually misrepresented like this to the point where things are fundamentally misunderstood by so many people is one of the main reasons we're in this mess.
So a take home pay of £6,500 is not a large salary, well over half mine.

Yes I do claim expenses as I travel worldwide with my job. Being a private firm it’s tightly controlled to the point it normally costs me money when I am travelling.

However a set amount of €4,200 does not sound like a tightly controlled expenditure.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:53 pm

dsr wrote:It's no issue on this side, because the UK isn't going to impose tariffs at first, and will use technology to apply the rules without a physical barrier at the border. (I know you have an issue with the use of technology on this subject.) The Irish may be less able to use the technology, but even so, there is no need for an immediate Berlin Wall. WTO rules allow them to work towards a solution - the EU isn't going to be immediately chucked out just becuase they haven't yet built their wall in the Republic of Ireland (and in Monaco, and around Andorra and Liechtenstein, and across St Maarten, and a few other EU land borders that come under similar rules.)
Huge if true.

But it isn't.

The tech does not exist.

The trusted trader stuff without a physical infrastructure is ripe for exploitation.

I've worked cross border haulage over there.

If you think everyone won't massively take the **** then you are so mistaken.
Last edited by Lancasterclaret on Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:54 pm

dsr wrote:https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.3710136

You want to have a word with the WTO spokesman, Lancaster. He reckons that the WTO doesn't insist on a hard border. Send him an email and put him straight.

It may be that the EU insists on a hard border because the EU wants to protect its own internal market. I hope they don't. But if they do, it's an EU decision, not a WTO decision. You can (but presumably won't) blame the EU, you can (and presumably will) blame the UK, but you can't (or at least shouldn't) blame the WTO.
That's not exactly what he says though is it. It's obviously considerably more nuanced than that. He goes on to say:

“The WTO will not intervene unless one of its members brought a case,” said Mr Rockwell. “If they [the UK] do not apply any duties or customs procedures against other trading partners and they do not have a trade agreement, some people might not be happy about that and they can bring a dispute settlement case.”

At which point it can get very messy and we lose control as we're being forced to offer other countries equivalent levels of checking. E.g. we can't subject those goods imported from China to lengthy customs checks as we don't do that to goods from Ireland.

At least we'll have taken back control of our borders though.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:15 pm

aggi wrote:That's not exactly what he says though is it. It's obviously considerably more nuanced than that. He goes on to say:

“The WTO will not intervene unless one of its members brought a case,” said Mr Rockwell. “If they [the UK] do not apply any duties or customs procedures against other trading partners and they do not have a trade agreement, some people might not be happy about that and they can bring a dispute settlement case.”

At which point it can get very messy and we lose control as we're being forced to offer other countries equivalent levels of checking. E.g. we can't subject those goods imported from China to lengthy customs checks as we don't do that to goods from Ireland.

At least we'll have taken back control of our borders though.
There is a difference between "not apply any customs procedures" and applying different customs procedures. The WTO does not specify, for example, that goods delivered by road must be subject to the identical checking system as goods delivered by sea.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:16 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Huge if true.

But it isn't.

The tech does not exist.

The trusted trader stuff without a physical infrastructure is ripe for exploitation.

I've worked cross border haulage over there.

If you think everyone won't massively take the **** then you are so mistaken.
It's never been done before, so it can't ever be done? Not a very forward thinking attitude.

Specifically, what bit of tech is missing?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:24 pm

Specifically, as I've worked in road haulage

Specifically, in UK-Irish haulage

You tell me how we do it, using your tech.

My boss in Ireland was a lovely man, but he and every other single Irish haulier will be looking at this and going "Wahay!"

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:26 pm

Blackrod wrote:Clearly aimed at me. Despite having a very high standard of education, degrees and professional qualifications in addition to holding successful posts and running businesses I’m a blithering idiot because I used the term ‘European Gravy Train’ and Turtle doesn’t like it. Ok then.

Imagine disagreeing with just about everything that everyone posts and trying to create arguments all the time. Imagine becoming a football message boards resident troll. It can’t be settling for the mind. Do you even comment on football. People ignore entire threads that you post on because they are sick of you. Imagine continuously resorting to name calling when people don’t agree with you. Feeble.

By using the term "European Gravy Train" in place of an argument you signal to everyone that you're intellectually lazy. That's the only reason for using dumb little soundbites in place of an argument, aside from just being a blithering idiot who is incapable of forming one. Now, maybe you're not a blithering idiot, but being intellectually lazy is not really a better thing to be since at least being a blithering idiot isn't a choice.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:31 pm

Immigrants are ruining Germany's crime rate

https://www.thelocal.de/20190402/crime- ... nification" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:17 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Specifically, as I've worked in road haulage

Specifically, in UK-Irish haulage

You tell me how we do it, using your tech.

My boss in Ireland was a lovely man, but he and every other single Irish haulier will be looking at this and going "Wahay!"
I don't know what part of the technology is supposed to be missing. But what specific part of the import of goods, the completion of the paperwork, or the payment of duty cannot happen without physical inspection of goods at a border? Why will the system not work?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:36 pm

Trust

Or lack of it

I mean, a lot of our stuff came into the docks at Warrenpoint, the haulier would be based in Dundalk, cross the border to get to Warrenpoint, pick up trailer, drop it at Greenore, back to Warrenpoint for another trailer, deliver that to North Dublin, back to Greenore to pick up loaded trailer to take to Warrenpoint or Belfast, then back again to leave another trailer at Craigavon or somewhere else on the border.

Multiply that by every Irish haulier, and add the fact that its a "No Deal" Brexit with god knows what else added to it. You can't keep track of that very easily (if at all, though I suppose some intelligence led software might help (does that even exist? I have no idea)

Where do you charge? When do you charge?

What if the trucks cross the border eight times, but the haulier only claims they went across four times?

What if a haulier picks up a cargo of Spanish lamb at Dublin, but swaps it for a load of off cuts in a farm in Newry? How would you know?

Is there enough customs clearing houses in both countries to deal with an overnight multiplication of workload? Doubt it immensely

I've been out of it for a while, but the problems haven't changed that much.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:53 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Trust

Or lack of it

I mean, a lot of our stuff came into the docks at Warrenpoint, the haulier would be based in Dundalk, cross the border to get to Warrenpoint, pick up trailer, drop it at Greenore, back to Warrenpoint for another trailer, deliver that to North Dublin, back to Greenore to pick up loaded trailer to take to Warrenpoint or Belfast, then back again to leave another trailer at Craigavon or somewhere else on the border.

Multiply that by every Irish haulier, and add the fact that its a "No Deal" Brexit with god knows what else added to it. You can't keep track of that very easily (if at all, though I suppose some intelligence led software might help (does that even exist? I have no idea)

Where do you charge? When do you charge?

What if the trucks cross the border eight times, but the haulier only claims they went across four times?

What if a haulier picks up a cargo of Spanish lamb at Dublin, but swaps it for a load of off cuts in a farm in Newry? How would you know?

Is there enough customs clearing houses in both countries to deal with an overnight multiplication of workload? Doubt it immensely

I've been out of it for a while, but the problems haven't changed that much.

Being an Engineer , I am always going to put forward possible solutions.

So been looking at insurance as my teenager is 17 in a few weeks.

The new trackers that get fitted monitor how they drive and speed compared to speed limits. Surely that same technology can be fitted to both trailers and trucks.
You know exactly where each truck and trailer combination is at anyone time.
Cameras fitted in trailers could monitor what’s in it, just like the ones the EU is going to make compulsory in cars from 2021-2.

No system will ever be perfect and criminals will always get round what authorities try to do, however the tech is there now to live track all trucks and all trailers.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:55 pm

Question:

If we leave the EU (by default) without a deal who will YOU blame ?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:58 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:Being an Engineer , I am always going to put forward possible solutions.

So been looking at insurance as my teenager is 17 in a few weeks.

The new trackers that get fitted monitor how they drive and speed compared to speed limits. Surely that same technology can be fitted to both trailers and trucks.
You know exactly where each truck and trailer combination is at anyone time.
Cameras fitted in trailers could monitor what’s in it, just like the ones the EU is going to make compulsory in cars from 2021-2.

No system will ever be perfect and criminals will always get round what authorities try to do, however the tech is there now to live track all trucks and all trailers.
Oh, I'd be amazed if all trucks don't have trackers, certainly in the UK (not the case in Ireland it has to be said, some proper old school haulage going on down there, especially in the west!)

Trailers don't though (though again, we are talking ten years ago since I did this so I'm possibly well out of sync)

To be honest, if it was as easy as dsr and you are suggesting, then it wouldn't be an issue.

But it clearly is, and will cause problems in ten days time.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:04 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Oh, I'd be amazed if all trucks don't have trackers, certainly in the UK (not the case in Ireland it has to be said, some proper old school haulage going on down there, especially in the west!)

Trailers don't though (though again, we are talking ten years ago since I did this so I'm possibly well out of sync)

To be honest, if it was as easy as dsr and you are suggesting, then it wouldn't be an issue.

But it clearly is, and will cause problems in ten days time.

I don’t suggest it can be done in 10 days.

I am just saying there is a technology out there that could prevent a hard border.

Which we all don’t want.

No one wants a return to the troubles.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:05 pm

Mala591 wrote:Question:

If we leave the EU (by default) without a deal who will YOU blame ?
I'll congratulate all those who voted to leave the European Union and chose self determination before any potential presupposed economic losses.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:06 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Trust

Or lack of it

I mean, a lot of our stuff came into the docks at Warrenpoint, the haulier would be based in Dundalk, cross the border to get to Warrenpoint, pick up trailer, drop it at Greenore, back to Warrenpoint for another trailer, deliver that to North Dublin, back to Greenore to pick up loaded trailer to take to Warrenpoint or Belfast, then back again to leave another trailer at Craigavon or somewhere else on the border.

Multiply that by every Irish haulier, and add the fact that its a "No Deal" Brexit with god knows what else added to it. You can't keep track of that very easily (if at all, though I suppose some intelligence led software might help (does that even exist? I have no idea)

Where do you charge? When do you charge?

What if the trucks cross the border eight times, but the haulier only claims they went across four times?

What if a haulier picks up a cargo of Spanish lamb at Dublin, but swaps it for a load of off cuts in a farm in Newry? How would you know?

Is there enough customs clearing houses in both countries to deal with an overnight multiplication of workload? Doubt it immensely

I've been out of it for a while, but the problems haven't changed that much.
The driver is a red herring, because it's the goods that carry the duty. What you have is three trailers leaving Warrenpoint, going respectively to Greenore and North Dublin and Craigavon, and one trailer from Greenore to Warrenpoint or Belfast. And all the goods leaving the country have a VAT form filled in because they are going from one VAT area to another. Is it your contention that these VAT forms can't (due to lack of technology) be used as import/export forms?

There is already plenty of scope for cooking the books with VAT, and the authorities seem able to keep a tin lid on the worst excesses.

As for the Spanish lamb switched for offcuts at Newry, maybe they could use technology for that as well. A tachograph, for example. I'm sure the Irish have the technology to do that - it's been fitted in England for long enough. They won't catch every load, but they'll catch the serial smugglers; but then, they don't catch every load now. I'm sure that when meat arrives in the UK by lorry now, they don't open a packet from the back of every wagonload.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:07 pm

Mala591 wrote:Question:

If we leave the EU (by default) without a deal who will YOU blame ?
Politicians.

There's a bit of a list though, so just saying politicians is quicker.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:11 pm

Everybody is at fault if we leave with a "No Deal" but a lot of it is at the door of the government.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:17 pm

dsr wrote:The driver is a red herring, because it's the goods that carry the duty. What you have is three trailers leaving Warrenpoint, going respectively to Greenore and North Dublin and Craigavon, and one trailer from Greenore to Warrenpoint or Belfast. And all the goods leaving the country have a VAT form filled in because they are going from one VAT area to another. Is it your contention that these VAT forms can't (due to lack of technology) be used as import/export forms?

There is already plenty of scope for cooking the books with VAT, and the authorities seem able to keep a tin lid on the worst excesses.

As for the Spanish lamb switched for offcuts at Newry, maybe they could use technology for that as well. A tachograph, for example. I'm sure the Irish have the technology to do that - it's been fitted in England for long enough. They won't catch every load, but they'll catch the serial smugglers; but then, they don't catch every load now. I'm sure that when meat arrives in the UK by lorry now, they don't open a packet from the back of every wagonload.
I only used the driver as an explanation of how Irish haulage works, and we don't know what the border controls and regime will be. So I'm not ruling anything out (sadly)

Tachographs are electronic now (I think, but again, they were still paper when I left). I couldn't tell you how they collect or analyse the electronic data (if they is what they do) but if they are still paper, then they are checked every week to see if any driving offences have been committed. You wouldn't know if the driver had taken an unauthorised diversion for example, and they are sent off to the VOSA every month (again, long time ago), so that is a non-starter.

I think you are dismissing the potential for smuggling under a "No Deal". If the goods are not checked at the border or at a port, then absolutely anything is possible.

For sure, the "just let anything in" is going to come to a shuddering halt when the first really bad effect of that happens.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Tall Paul » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:19 pm

dsr wrote:The driver is a red herring, because it's the goods that carry the duty. What you have is three trailers leaving Warrenpoint, going respectively to Greenore and North Dublin and Craigavon, and one trailer from Greenore to Warrenpoint or Belfast. And all the goods leaving the country have a VAT form filled in because they are going from one VAT area to another. Is it your contention that these VAT forms can't (due to lack of technology) be used as import/export forms?

There is already plenty of scope for cooking the books with VAT, and the authorities seem able to keep a tin lid on the worst excesses.

As for the Spanish lamb switched for offcuts at Newry, maybe they could use technology for that as well. A tachograph, for example. I'm sure the Irish have the technology to do that - it's been fitted in England for long enough. They won't catch every load, but they'll catch the serial smugglers; but then, they don't catch every load now. I'm sure that when meat arrives in the UK by lorry now, they don't open a packet from the back of every wagonload.
They don't need to open any because it's either already been checked when it entered the EU or it's from inside the EU and doesn't need to be checked.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:23 pm

Tall Paul wrote:They don't need to open any because it's either already been checked when it entered the EU or it's from inside the EU and doesn't need to be checked.
Stuff that comes into Rotterdam international port for transshipping, for example, doesn't necessarily get checked by Dutch authorities.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:24 pm

dsr wrote:There is a difference between "not apply any customs procedures" and applying different customs procedures. The WTO does not specify, for example, that goods delivered by road must be subject to the identical checking system as goods delivered by sea.
And it may be something we'd get away with, but maybe it wouldn't. Personally I'm not wholly averse to the do nothing and drag it out in the courts approach if someone complains. The main issues for me in this scenario would be that at the same time we'd be attempting to negotiate trade deals with hundreds of countries so it's not much of a show of good faith and it doesn't incentivise countries to negotiate with us as they may get what they want without a trade deal depending on the outcome.

What I find strange is that a lot of the people who are convinced that the border isn't an issue and the technology will be there soon, etc are those railing hardest against the backstop. If they are so confident in the solutions then why is the backstop an issue?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:26 pm

Stark choices for Ireland....
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:30 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I think you are dismissing the potential for smuggling under a "No Deal". If the goods are not checked at the border or at a port, then absolutely anything is possible.

For sure, the "just let anything in" is going to come to a shuddering halt when the first really bad effect of that happens.
I'm not dismissing it, I'm just not panicking about it. How much can they smuggle? It's got to be small scale, because anyone trying to get a full UK's worth of supplies through Ireland would have such a vast paperwork discrepancy that it would be easily spotted. If someone is buying a thousand containerloads in or through Ireland, selling a hundred in Ireland, booking 900 containers on the ferry, and selling 900 containers in the UK - do you think it couldn't be spotted? If they're putting a dozen or even a few dozen into Northern Ireland, perhaps they can get away with it. But HMRC will know who's shipping large amounts of stuff on the ferries, and they'll be checking their sales figures.

Remember both RoI and UK business are currently reporting how much they get in imports from the EU and how much they are currently exporting. It will be trivial to continue to report those figures on the VAT returns. If they're shipping significant amounts of goods over the sea but claiming they're selling them in Ireland, it will be noticed.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:32 pm

aggi wrote:What I find strange is that a lot of the people who are convinced that the border isn't an issue and the technology will be there soon, etc are those railing hardest against the backstop. If they are so confident in the solutions then why is the backstop an issue?
Because when a man (or in this case, country) offers you his word but refuses to put it in writing, you don't trust his word.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:50 pm

dsr wrote:I'm not dismissing it, I'm just not panicking about it. How much can they smuggle? It's got to be small scale, because anyone trying to get a full UK's worth of supplies through Ireland would have such a vast paperwork discrepancy that it would be easily spotted. If someone is buying a thousand containerloads in or through Ireland, selling a hundred in Ireland, booking 900 containers on the ferry, and selling 900 containers in the UK - do you think it couldn't be spotted? If they're putting a dozen or even a few dozen into Northern Ireland, perhaps they can get away with it. But HMRC will know who's shipping large amounts of stuff on the ferries, and they'll be checking their sales figures.

Remember both RoI and UK business are currently reporting how much they get in imports from the EU and how much they are currently exporting. It will be trivial to continue to report those figures on the VAT returns. If they're shipping significant amounts of goods over the sea but claiming they're selling them in Ireland, it will be noticed.
Brexiters - “we need to regain control over our borders”

Also brexiters “a little bit of smuggling doesn’t matter”
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:56 pm

Tall Paul wrote:Yes we truly are, and have been throughout our EU membership, according to the government's Brexit white paper.
Sovereignty = Supreme Power.
Example that we do not currently have Supreme Power
If the Backstop was enacted we could not unilaterally exit it.
The Backstop is designed to maintain the conditions for certain EU laws that are currently in place.
So f we are in the EU we are not in Supreme Power therefore not truly Sovereign
If we take May deal with the Backstop we are definately not
If we take Mays Deal we are not really
If we get out without a Withdrawal Agreement, so No deal, then we are potentially.

dsr
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:58 pm

Greenmile wrote:Brexiters - “we need to regain control over our borders”

Also brexiters “a little bit of smuggling doesn’t matter”
Do you actually believe that "control of borders" must mean every vehicle is physically stopped at a checkpoint, or are you refusing to let the facts stop you making a cheap political point?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:02 pm

Can I be honest here dsr, I think that is exactly what people want when they want "control of their borders".

Its impossible, but it never stopped people on your side using it as, an, er "cheap political point" did it?
This user liked this post: Greenmile

aggi
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:02 pm

dsr wrote:Because when a man (or in this case, country) offers you his word but refuses to put it in writing, you don't trust his word.
I'm not sure what you mean, it's in writing (at great length) here https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _Union.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:05 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:You can call it whatever you want, but without proper long term planning and modelling of the likely effects, its still the worst possible outcome.
The EU have been planning for it, their findings are not apocalyptic, however they'd not get the 39 Billion pounds that they are holding out for and they'd have less influence controlling the UK and ensuring the UK did not set a prosperous model for other populist movements within other EU member countries.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by tiger76 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:06 pm

A last-ditch attempt to avoid a no-deal exit,would require the EU'S approval though and there might be conditions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47789298

Of course if parliament doesn't want no-deal they could actually vote for one of the various options instead of constantly chickening out of taking a hard decision.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:07 pm

Greenmile wrote:Brexiters - “we need to regain control over our borders”

Also brexiters “a little bit of smuggling doesn’t matter”
You know we don't want to control our borders because of trade.... Scoffs

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:07 pm

Soundbite from the Belgian PM on 5 live.

The EU will NOT avoid no deal at all costs, they'll pick whichever option is less costly to the EU/Common market.
The lesser of two evils were his words.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:08 pm

Mala591 wrote:Question:

If we leave the EU (by default) without a deal who will YOU blame ?
For many reasons:
Boris Johnson, though others will also be culpable for indulging his fantasies.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:10 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Can I be honest here dsr, I think that is exactly what people want when they want "control of their borders".

Its impossible, but it never stopped people on your side using it as, an, er "cheap political point" did it?
I doubt that. I dare say some people on both sides thought that there would be a big wall (literal or metaphorical) in the middle of the sea, but I think most people expected that people would still be able to come in and out as freely as they do now, and "control of borders" meant the right to stop people living here permanently. Not stopping them coming on holiday.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:12 pm

aggi wrote:I'm not sure what you mean, it's in writing (at great length) here https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _Union.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What I mean is, if the EU wanted to make it clear that the UK could quit the withdrawal agreement in 21 months, they could have put in the contract that we can unilaterally quit the withdrawal agreement then. They chose not to; so anything they may say that suggests we will be able to unilaterally quit, is worthless.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:14 pm

dsr wrote:Too subtle, sorry.

What I was saying, in simple terms, is:

1. The economists made desperately gloomy forecasts about failing to join the Euro. They were wrong.
2. The ecomonists made desperately gloomy forecasts about crashing out of the ERM. They were wrong.

Does this mean they are certainly wrong about Brexit? No. Does it mean that we can take their advice about Brexit as if it was gospel truth? Well, you presumably think so. I don't.
Don't forget the immediate disaster directly after the Referendum if we voted to leave.
The government spent 9 million on it
Barack Obama knew it
The Governor of The Bank of England Knew it
Didn't happen - Fake News People -

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:18 pm

Again, there isn't absolutely no comparision between them and a "No Deal".

I'll keep saying this, but its almost like you two don't know what a "No Deal" entails.

Surely not though, cos that would be irresponsible in the extreme to back something you haven't a clue about?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Tall Paul » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:22 pm

dsr wrote:Stuff that comes into Rotterdam international port for transshipping, for example, doesn't necessarily get checked by Dutch authorities.
Surely the goods have to clear customs checks when they enter the EU?

If you're saying they only check a sample, that's still what will be needed on any UK border with Ireland/the EU.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:53 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:The EU have been planning for it, their findings are not apocalyptic, however they'd not get the 39 Billion pounds that they are holding out for and they'd have less influence controlling the UK and ensuring the UK did not set a prosperous model for other populist movements within other EU member countries.
If we ever want a trade deal with the EU we’ll have to pay the divorce bill, whether we leave with a deal or not.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:55 pm

dsr wrote:What I mean is, if the EU wanted to make it clear that the UK could quit the withdrawal agreement in 21 months, they could have put in the contract that we can unilaterally quit the withdrawal agreement then. They chose not to; so anything they may say that suggests we will be able to unilaterally quit, is worthless.
Haven’t you been following? They don’t want us to be able to quit after a set time, only when a trade deal that doesn’t create a hard border in Ireland has been signed. The backstop has exit criteria, they’re just not time based.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:59 pm

dsr wrote:What I mean is, if the EU wanted to make it clear that the UK could quit the withdrawal agreement in 21 months, they could have put in the contract that we can unilaterally quit the withdrawal agreement then. They chose not to; so anything they may say that suggests we will be able to unilaterally quit, is worthless.
That isn't what they (or I) are saying though.

The Backstop is in place until the border issue can be solved avoiding a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls.

People, such as yourself, seem to be simultaneously saying that the technology is nearly there to avoid a hard border but we shouldn't sign the WA due to the backstop (even though that shouldn't be an issue as you've said the technology is nearly there to avoid a hard border).

You need to decide whether you're going to argue that the border technology is there or that the backstop is going to tie us into the EU in perpetuity.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:02 pm

Pm statement soon. What is she going to say?

My guess a referendum on her deal yes or no ans no remain option. Logic the people voted to leave so we have to. She got the best she can from the EU but the HOC won't support her.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:07 pm

Difficult one Summit,
Rumours were if she goes one way, half her cabinet will resign.
The other way the other half will resign.

Here we go.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:07 pm

Fighting the EU elections, get in

Locked