Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Damo]

Whether you take part in polls or not Damo, pollsters such as YouGov will make sure they have a representative sample of people who voted Leave, Remain or didn’t vote at all. So no need to be worried about it being skewed. If you look across polling organisations the trend has been for a Remain majority since about September 2017.

You and Charlie are going to hate the result of their latest poll

[AndyClaret]

You and Charlie are going to hate the result of their latest poll

[Lancasterclaret]

So? The country is hopelessly split. It's not like we don't know that is it?

You can't do anything till that is sorted out.

Extension it is

[Jakubclaret]

So? The country is hopelessly split. It's not like we don't know that is it?

You can't do anything till that is sorted out.

Extension it is

Some people have been waiting 40+ years for a nightmare to end there didn’t even want in the first place & now voted out & a sadistical post like this, do you get your rocks off on tormenting people

[Lord Beamish]

Some people have been waiting 40+ years for a nightmare to end there didn’t even want in the first place & now voted out & a sadistical post like this, do you get your rocks off on tormenting people

That is not just bordering on hysterical, it’s crossed over and gone into the realm of histrionics.

[Lancasterclaret]

Not at all, just bring realistic.

[Colburn_Claret]

Weird how the experts think it's a really bad idea though.

Guess they must all be on this European gravy train we here so much about

Then why do the experts think it, if you dont know yourself.
You see Lancs you are putting your faith in people who are completely untrustworthy.
If you have no answer, what's theirs.


The thing is you dont have to be an expert to see that your bleak outlook doesn't add up. Common sense dictates that they will have to deal. By they I mean the Germans, not the EU. They HAVE to keep trading with us, just as we HAVE to keep trading with them.

[Lancasterclaret]

Then why do the experts think it, if you dont know yourself.
You see Lancs you are putting your faith in people who are completely untrustworthy.
If you have no answer, what's theirs.


The thing is you dont have to be an expert to see that your bleak outlook doesn't add up. Common sense dictates that they will have to deal. By they I mean the Germans, not the EU. They HAVE to keep trading with us, just as we HAVE to keep trading with them.

Bleak?

***** sake mate, you think the German car industry is still going to ride to the rescue.

That's an absolutely ridiculous assertion after two years of that clearly not being the case.

[summitclaret]

It comes to something when 44% of people are prepared to no deal ( which is not a good thing) and more would do that rather than remain.

I can only assume that the 2% would increase if we had a deal.

Mps need to get off off the fence now.

[Lord Beamish]

Then why do the experts think it, if you dont know yourself.
You see Lancs you are putting your faith in people who are completely untrustworthy.

Like Nigel Farage? Boris Johnson? Michael Gove? Jacob Rees Mogg? All those trustworthy types?

[Colburn_Claret]

Look how the leave rhetoric has done a complete 180 from the pre-referendum vision of amazing deals, cake and eat it, hold all the cards, bright futures.

Now it's gotten to 'It won't be the end of the world' and 'it won't be pretty for us'

It was meant to be better.

It hasn't turned around at all. Remainers always paint the blackest picture possible, all I said was even if those blackest of pictures came true, it wouldn't be the end of the world.
I still believe there will be a deal, as I've stated in previous posts, it doesn't suit anybody but the EU not too, and if the EU think Germany are going to sit quietly by and let Brussels shaft them, then they are in for a shock.

But I'll put the same question to you that Lancs couldn't answer. How can a No Deal leave us worse off than the Germans?

[Jakubclaret]

Not at all, just bring realistic.

Your version of realism I don’t think everybody shares, I certainly don’t, I don’t see sense in prolonging agony for some people don’t you think some people have suffered enough. 20+ years rough guide as voting from 1975, call it mid sixties stuck with something their never wanted & now still stuck with it, I certainly wouldn’t like it that’s reality.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Bill Cash today ‘we saved Europe twice in the last hundred years’ and complaining about the EU’s treatment of us. Thought it was only Francois who went on about the war!

I mean he’s right if you overlook it was an ‘allied’ effort including a tiny bit of help from the Russians and Americans!

[Colburn_Claret]

Bleak?

***** sake mate, you think the German car industry is still going to ride to the rescue.

That's an absolutely ridiculous assertion after two years of that clearly not being the case.

You still haven't answered the question.

The Germans have probably sat on their hands because the EU think they can reverse the referendum.

As a fact it isn't just the car industry. Of Germanys export trade 15-18% is with the UK. Just tell me please, what happens to that 15-18% if the EU stops trading with the UK.
They cant stock pile it. They cant flog it elsewhere in the world on the cheap. They cant sell it elsewhere in Europe, because most of it is Brassic. They would have to start laying off, or mothballing plants. This is the future you paint for us, if it holds true for us tell me why it doesn't hold true for them. Please.

P.S. because the experts say so isnt an answer.

[Colburn_Claret]

Like Nigel Farage? Boris Johnson? Michael Gove? Jacob Rees Mogg? All those trustworthy types?

Still haven't answered the question.

[summitclaret]

Bill Cash today ‘we saved Europe twice in the last hundred years’ and complaining about the EU’s treatment of us. Thought it was only Francois who went on about the war!

I mean he’s right if you overlook it was an ‘allied’ effort including a tiny bit of help from the Russians and Americans!

Yes eventually. But we stood alone before that. Did you have relatives who served. I had and I will never forget them. Oh for a Churchill now.

[nil_desperandum]

But I'll put the same question to you that Lancs couldn't answer. How can a No Deal leave us worse off than the Germans?

Well that's rather a simple answer - in the short to mid-term at least - Germany will still have frictionless trade with 26 other EU countries, along with arrangements on hundreds of other issues, plus, of course, trade arrangements etc with most of the rest of the world via EU treaties.
Whereas we'll have to start negotiating deals from a position of weakness, and will have to start investing in new infrastructure, education / training etc., whilst the economy is (in the short term at least) contracting.
In the worse scenario I've read it COULD cost Germany 100,000 jobs, but if you're going to accept that figure then you must also give some credibility to the claim that it could cost 800,000 jobs in the UK. (Both could be project fear of course, but you've really got to accept that either both might be true or neither might be true.)
But in any case, no matter what the potential "hit", Germany is overwhelmingly pro- EU, (despite noisy right-wing groups), and it would take that "hit" and find new markets elsewhere. (These new markets are supposedly out there and making "deals" will be easy according to our Trade Minister.

[Jakubclaret]

You wouldn’t so much against all these experts if their got things right, they’d be conviction behind the belief some sort of tangible faith, tangible faith does exist in them contriving to them getting so much wrong when it’s easier to get less right. You could say that’s an achievement within itself.

[summitclaret]

You still haven't answered the question.

The Germans have probably sat on their hands because the EU think they can reverse the referendum.

As a fact it isn't just the car industry. Of Germanys export trade 15-18% is with the UK. Just tell me please, what happens to that 15-18% if the EU stops trading with the UK.
They cant stock pile it. They cant flog it elsewhere in the world on the cheap. They cant sell it elsewhere in Europe, because most of it is Brassic. They would have to start laying off, or mothballing plants. This is the future you paint for us, if it holds true for us tell me why it doesn't hold true for them. Please.

P.S. because the experts say so isnt an answer.

Took a look at the french wine again today and guess what I bought Australian. It's coming to the time when we all buying wisely

[martin_p]

I could bore you silly with a long winded post but it's staring you & many others in the face, & the answers are within this thread, over 7000 posts 144 pages of people agreeing & disagreeing, the arguments can be solved overnight with leaving & prospering as an independent nation, nothing else until now as i can recall as completely divided society like this & it will continue. I'll happily provide links supporting the final point even balanced 1s which do support both sides but sway away after a complete analysis.

So basically after more than 24 hours to think about it you haven’t got an answer. No surprise there!

[nil_desperandum]

Yes eventually. But we stood alone before that. Did you have relatives who served. I had and I will never forget them. Oh for a Churchill now.

Churchill would be absolutely appalled at our current situation, and horrified at the prospect of us walking away from Europe. He is listed as on one of the EU's 11 founding fathers.
I'm not going to provide a long list of evidence for this, but this 2015 article sums up his position fairly accurately.

https://theconversation.com/what-church ... rope-36613" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[aggi]

Bill Cash today ‘we saved Europe twice in the last hundred years’ and complaining about the EU’s treatment of us. Thought it was only Francois who went on about the war!

I mean he’s right if you overlook it was an ‘allied’ effort including a tiny bit of help from the Russians and Americans!

Also not very good at maths.

[summitclaret]

Churchill would be absolutely appalled at our current situation, and horrified at the prospect of us walking away from Europe. He is listed as on one of the EU's 11 founding fathers.
I'm not going to provide a long list of evidence for this, but this 2015 article sums up his position fairly accurately.

https://theconversation.com/what-church ... rope-36613" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

so he wanted free trade. Good. Let's face it the EU is run by Germany and France and for their benefit. The euro being the glue. The same voices trying to stop be it wanted us in the euro/Erm. That's turned out well for southern Europe eh.

[Lord Beamish]

Still haven't answered the question.

I don’t really have to as it was not aimed at me. I can however point out the great hypocrisy is your comment about Experts. I’m asking you a question, directly; do you trust any of the men I mentioned? If so, why?

[summitclaret]

Poor snow flakes

I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

Civil servants offered counselling for no-deal Brexit stress - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47807800" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AndrewJB]

Got no response when I posted yesterday, just fingers in ears.

It's shameful. I think everyone can be swayed by advertising sometimes, but the way the no-deal con trick has been played doesn't bode well for the future. People talk about the Blitz spirit, but the country wasn't full of lemmings back then.

[Colburn_Claret]

Well that's rather a simple answer - in the short to mid-term at least - Germany will still have frictionless trade with 26 other EU countries, along with arrangements on hundreds of other issues, plus, of course, trade arrangements etc with most of the rest of the world via EU treaties.
Whereas we'll have to start negotiating deals from a position of weakness, and will have to start investing in new infrastructure, education / training etc., whilst the economy is (in the short term at least) contracting.
In the worse scenario I've read it COULD cost Germany 100,000 jobs, but if you're going to accept that figure then you must also give some credibility to the claim that it could cost 800,000 jobs in the UK. (Both could be project fear of course, but you've really got to accept that either both might be true or neither might be true.)
But in any case, no matter what the potential "hit", Germany is overwhelmingly pro- EU, (despite noisy right-wing groups), and it would take that "hit" and find new markets elsewhere. (These new markets are supposedly out there and making "deals" will be easy according to our Trade Minister.

No matter what its trade is with the other 26 countries, it cant click its fingers and fill a massive 18% gap in its economic trade. That's nearly a 5th of its exports, I doubt Germany likes the EU that much its willing to take a hit that big.
The up coming European elections will be a big turning point, if as expected those noisy right wing groups do really well then Sitting governments cant afford to ignore them.
Most governments are funded by business, and businesses too wouldn't want to be denied access to their market.
There is no business rationale that says cutting off the UK makes sense. It's only the pettiness of Brussels we have to overcome.

[Colburn_Claret]

I don’t really have to as it was not aimed at me. I can however point out the great hypocrisy is your comment about Experts. I’m asking you a question, directly; do you trust any of the men I mentioned? If so, why?

I believe we are better off outside the EU, m'lord, but it isnt because of anything any of them said.
Are there any politicians you can believe in. I believe it when they talk about the EU being undemocratic, because I share that view. When they start quoting facts and figures then it's time to wind the window up. Anyone can cherry pick a figure, massage it and prove 23 is really 37. I try to look at the whole picture rather than little bits of this and little bits of that.

[AndrewJB]

so he wanted free trade. Good. Let's face it the EU is run by Germany and France and for their benefit. The euro being the glue. The same voices trying to stop be it wanted us in the euro/Erm. That's turned out well for southern Europe eh.

The EU "run by Germany and France"? Okay, how so?

[nil_desperandum]

so he wanted free trade. Good. Let's face it the EU is run by Germany and France and for their benefit. The euro being the glue. The same voices trying to stop be it wanted us in the euro/Erm. That's turned out well for southern Europe eh.

But as the scholarly article I quoted pointed out, he was prepared to go considerably further than just a trade deal:

"Churchill did not share the preoccupations of today’s eurosceptics with national sovereignty. He disassociated himself from European federalists, but stressed some form of political unity would be required. He did not shrink from addressing the implications should Britain opt to participate. As leader of the opposition in the Commons in 1950, he indicated that both the Liberals and the Conservatives were “prepared to consider, and if convinced to accept, the abrogation of national sovereignty, provided that we are satisfied with the conditions and the safeguards”. It is impossible to imagine a Tory leader saying this today."

[Lancasterclaret]

You still haven't answered the question.

The Germans have probably sat on their hands because the EU think they can reverse the referendum.

As a fact it isn't just the car industry. Of Germanys export trade 15-18% is with the UK. Just tell me please, what happens to that 15-18% if the EU stops trading with the UK.
They cant stock pile it. They cant flog it elsewhere in the world on the cheap. They cant sell it elsewhere in Europe, because most of it is Brassic. They would have to start laying off, or mothballing plants. This is the future you paint for us, if it holds true for us tell me why it doesn't hold true for them. Please.

P.S. because the experts say so isnt an answer.

It is though.

What is your actual work experience Colburn?

[Jakubclaret]

So basically after more than 24 hours to think about it you haven’t got an answer. No surprise there!

It's the best i could muster, i did think long & hard about it & the more i thought about it that's the answer in my opinion. I'll be remembering the question & also mindful that the question has been answered when it crops up again.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Yes eventually. But we stood alone before that. Did you have relatives who served. I had and I will never forget them. Oh for a Churchill now.

I did just not sure what an MP still harping on about the Wars has to do with Brexit negotiations.

[Greenmile]

No matter what its trade is with the other 26 countries, it cant click its fingers and fill a massive 18% gap in its economic trade.

And you expect us to fill a gap of well over 40% of our trade how, exactly?

Btw, if you think about those two numbers hard enough, you might get the answer to your question about how a no deal might hurt us more than Germany.

Here’s a clue to start you off - 40 is a bigger number than 18.

[Lancasterclaret]

And you expect us to fill a gap of well over 40% of our trade how, exactly?

Btw, if you think about those two numbers hard enough, you might get the answer to your question about how a no deal might hurt us more than Germany.

Here’s a clue to start you off - 40 is a bigger number than 18.

You know your problem Greenmile, is that you only have to believe that 18 is bigger than 40, and hey presto! its bigger!

[Greenmile]

It's the best i could muster, i did think long & hard about it & the more i thought about it that's the answer in my opinion. I'll be remembering the question & also mindful that the question has been answered when it crops up again.

The question hasn’t been answered (by you, at least).

I don’t particularly care what your answer is, but I thought this needs pointing out.

A string of meaningless babble does not an answer make.

[nil_desperandum]

No matter what its trade is with the other 26 countries, it cant click its fingers and fill a massive 18% gap in its economic trade. That's nearly a 5th of its exports, I doubt Germany likes the EU that much its willing to take a hit that big.
.

Where does the figure of 18% come from? (Genuine question).
I've been doing some research and it from what I've just been reading it appears that roughly 5 percent of German GDP (gross domestic product) is directly or indirectly dependent on U.K. trade

[BleedingClaret]

I think most would agree that is a terrible idea. Another example of Leavers trying to subvert democracy.

you'd have to expand.

[Tall Paul]

Where does the figure of 18% come from? (Genuine question).
I've been doing some research and it from what I've just been reading it appears that roughly 5 percent of German GDP (gross domestic product) is directly or indirectly dependent on U.K. trade

Looks like it's about 6.5% according to this link:
https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/germany/tradestats" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Greenmile]

I believe we are better off outside the EU, m'lord, but it isnt because of anything any of them said.
Are there any politicians you can believe in. I believe it when they talk about the EU being undemocratic, because I share that view. When they start quoting facts and figures then it's time to wind the window up. Anyone can cherry pick a figure, massage it and prove 23 is really 37. I try to look at the whole picture rather than little bits of this and little bits of that.

This really sums a lot of brexiters (and a fair few remainers, to be fair) up. “I only believe the things that reinforce my preconceptions, and when anyone tries to show me any evidence, I just ignore it”.

Can anyone prove that 18 (or 6.5) is a bigger number than 45 with their tricksy statistics and cherry-picking?

[nil_desperandum]

Looks like it's about 6.5% according to this link:
https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/germany/tradestats" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, that's not far from the estimates that I was finding.
So we would have to ask Colburn again: where does the figure of 18% come from, and how is it arrived at?
it's a drop in the ocean compared to our 40%

[Lancasterclaret]

Possibly EU wide?

But I would expect it to be a lot more than that

[Jakubclaret]

The question hasn’t been answered (by you, at least).

I don’t particularly care what your answer is, but I thought this needs pointing out.

A string of meaningless babble does not an answer make.

It’s pretty pointless asking a question then & even more so for the person having the courtesy to answer, It only appears to be babble if you don’t agree or “word salad”, I didn’t expect you or Martin p to care about the answer, after all family cat asked the question originally & I had the decency to reply.

[Jakubclaret]

So no trade, no travel arrangements, no flights, no drugs from the EU, no anything? Effectively closed borders?
I don't think anyone voted for that - probably not even you, but that's what you've just written.
And to retain any of the above you have to "deal" with the EU. Once you've burnt all your bridges it's much more difficult to rebuild them, and if we do then want to make an FT agreement with them in the future then it would be a lot more difficult than making one now.

Could you please explain how other advanced countries outside of the EU seem to manage without ”no travel arrangements, no flights, no drugs from the EU, no anything, effectively closed borders” seemingly we have a unique problem & all the other developed countries have somehow managed to bypass this impasse, basically I’d like to know why you think we are so much different & why we can’t have a similar style of arrangements other countries enjoy not being within the EU?

[Paul Waine]

Bleak?

***** sake mate, you think the German car industry is still going to ride to the rescue.

That's an absolutely ridiculous assertion after two years of that clearly not being the case.

Hi Lancs, are you not keeping up? Germany's car sector is in a downturn. It may be BMW, Merc and VW are the ones asking to be rescued. Possibly something to do with emissions testing, perhaps.

[Lancasterclaret]

Hi Paul, its a well known Brexiteer myth which I'm highlighting to show the absurdity of Colburns position.

Nothing more than that.

[aggi]

you'd have to expand.

Steve Barclay was fairly prominent in the leave campaign.

[nil_desperandum]

Could you please explain how other advanced countries outside of the EU seem to manage without ”no travel arrangements, no flights, no drugs from the EU, no anything, effectively closed borders” seemingly we have a unique problem & all the other developed countries have somehow managed to bypass this impasse, basically I’d like to know why you think we are so much different & why we can’t have a similar style of arrangements other countries enjoy not being within the EU?

I don't know why you've suddenly dug up a post from 4 pages back, (maybe it's because you want others to read my post out of context).
The comments I made were in response to your "vision" of brexit:

Leave is leave, you are packing the bags & everything, a complete severance, no stone unturned, that's what some of us voted for & expected to happen,

In the type of brexit you "voted for and expected to happen", every point I made was correct. You're the only person I've ever heard arguing for "total severance" and "no stone unturned", everyone else thinks we should negotiate all the points I highlighted, such as travel arrangements, drugs etc.
It's not just by chance that "other developed countries" have agreements on all these issues either with the EU or between individual countries.

[Lancasterclaret]

To be honest, the biggest reason to avoid a "No Deal" is the dangers of putting NI under direct rule.

Even my economic focused remainer position is nowhere near as important as avoiding the dangers of that.

[Colburn_Claret]

And you expect us to fill a gap of well over 40% of our trade how, exactly?

Btw, if you think about those two numbers hard enough, you might get the answer to your question about how a no deal might hurt us more than Germany.

Here’s a clue to start you off - 40 is a bigger number than 18.

I've seen figures quoted that are a lot less than 40, but it still doesn't show any sort of sense to cut each others noses off.
We'll take the pain because it hurts you more than us, when there is no need for anyone to feel any pain.
Would you really want to belong to a club that could act and think like that. You keep talking about them as if they are our friends, but then describe them as if they are bastards.
You need to make your mind up.