Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Colburn_Claret]

Where does the figure of 18% come from? (Genuine question).
I've been doing some research and it from what I've just been reading it appears that roughly 5 percent of German GDP (gross domestic product) is directly or indirectly dependent on U.K. trade

The German opposition party in a speech in Brussels.
She stated that a no deal Brexit would do untold damage to the German economy as UK accounted for 15-18% of German exports.
She also stated that st the present, with Britsins help, they could block the excesses of the the Club Med States, her description not mine, but post Brexit the power would fall into those CMS hands. With no one to stop them Germany would be left to pick up that bill on it's own.

[Colburn_Claret]

This really sums a lot of brexiters (and a fair few remainers, to be fair) up. “I only believe the things that reinforce my preconceptions, and when anyone tries to show me any evidence, I just ignore it”.

Can anyone prove that 18 (or 6.5) is a bigger number than 45 with their tricksy statistics and cherry-picking?

Now you've just cherry picked my post, exactly what I dont do. I said that when it comes to any politician pulling facts and figures, I dont take any notice of any of them, whether Brexit or Remain.

You couldn't make it up, the hypocrisy.

[Greenmile]

I've seen figures quoted that are a lot less than 40, but it still doesn't show any sort of sense to cut each others noses off.
We'll take the pain because it hurts you more than us, when there is no need for anyone to feel any pain.
Would you really want to belong to a club that could act and think like that. You keep talking about them as if they are our friends, but then describe them as if they are bastards.
You need to make your mind up.

You asked (several times) how a no deal would harm us more than Germany. I gave you an answer, and now you’re basically saying they should be nicer to us and give us a deal. Make your mind up.

[Lancasterclaret]

The German opposition party in a speech in Brussels.
She stated that a no deal Brexit would do untold damage to the German economy as UK accounted for 15-18% of German exports.
She also stated that st the present, with Britsins help, they could block the excesses of the the Club Med States, her description not mine, but post Brexit the power would fall into those CMS hands. With no one to stop them Germany would be left to pick up that bill on it's own.

Is that the AfD candidate?

[nil_desperandum]

I've seen figures quoted that are a lot less than 40, but it still doesn't show any sort of sense to cut each others noses off.

.

House of commons Library Nov 30th 2018 says that UK exports to EU in 2017 were 44% of total UK exports. So any other figures you've read ("a lot less than 40%") are just speculation (and wrong). Or they might be lying to you. Time to smell the coffee?

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk ... y/CBP-7851" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Jakubclaret]

I don't know why you've suddenly dug up a post from 4 pages back, (maybe it's because you want others to read my post out of context).
The comments I made were in response to your "vision" of brexit:

In the type of brexit you "voted for and expected to happen", every point I made was correct. You're the only person I've ever heard arguing for "total severance" and "no stone unturned", everyone else thinks we should negotiate all the points I highlighted, such as travel arrangements, drugs etc.
It's not just by chance that "other developed countries" have agreements on all these issues either with the EU or between individual countries.

It’s not digging up posts, I noticed at the time & made a mental note to go back as I didn’t understand & still don’t, you can leave any relationship on good terms & be amicable it’s the adult thing to do, you can still mutually trade beneficially after we’ve left, but in order for this to work doesn’t necessarily mean we should be negotiating past the point of something happening, 3 years (nearly) is more than sufficient for this to have already been completed, I understand some elements are more complex than others, just short of 3 years it’s reasonable to expect & assume all this shouldn’t be a problem not at this stage anyhow.

[Paul Waine]

Btw, guys. I flew to Spain today. Passport control took all of 3 seconds checking my passport. Of course, the UK is still in EU at present. The plane was full.

Hoping to watch the game in a sports bar on Saturday.

UTC

[nil_desperandum]

The German opposition party in a speech in Brussels.
She stated that a no deal Brexit would do untold damage to the German economy as UK accounted for 15-18% of German exports.

Maybe she's not the most reliable source, and it would be better to check the official figure which is about a third of that.
So basically when you said Germany would take bigger hit, you are arguing that a hot of around 6.5 % is greater than 44%.

[Paul Waine]

Hi Paul, its a well known Brexiteer myth which I'm highlighting to show the absurdity of Colburns position.

Nothing more than that.

What's the myth, Lancs?

Are you aware German car manufacturing is suffering a dowturn?

[Greenmile]

Now you've just cherry picked my post, exactly what I dont do. I said that when it comes to any politician pulling facts and figures, I dont take any notice of any of them, whether Brexit or Remain.

You couldn't make it up, the hypocrisy.

I quoted your entire post. It said exactly what I suggested it said.

How’s that cherry picking?

I don’t think “hypocrisy” means what you think it means, either.

[nil_desperandum]

It’s not digging up posts, I noticed at the time & made a mental note to go back as I didn’t understand & still don’t, you can leave any relationship on good terms & be amicable it’s the adult thing to do, you can still mutually trade beneficially after we’ve left, but in order for this to work doesn’t necessarily mean we should be negotiating past the point of something happening, 3 years (nearly) is more than sufficient for this to have already been completed, I understand some elements are more complex than others, just short of 3 years it’s reasonable to expect & assume all this shouldn’t be a problem not at this stage anyhow.

You're going full Ringo now.
How is your previous comment of "total severance" "no stone turned" etc compatible with what you've just typed. ""ON GOOD TERMS AND AMICABLE"

[Greenmile]

House of commons Library Nov 30th 2018 says that UK exports to EU in 2017 were 44% of total UK exports. So any other figures you've read ("a lot less than 40%") are just speculation (and wrong). Or they might be lying to you. Time to smell the coffee?

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk ... y/CBP-7851" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You’re wasting your time. Colburn doesn’t listen to facts and figures. He believes they need us more than we need them, and he’ll only believe people who share that view (like the far right AfD). In his mind, this is a logical way of thinking.

[Jakubclaret]

You're going full Ringo now.
How is your previous comment of "total severance" "no stone turned" etc compatible with what you've just typed. ""ON GOOD TERMS AND AMICABLE"

Yes a complete severance from the bureaucracy of the union, but also maintain a mutually beneficial trading agreement, you still haven’t explained why this hasn’t been completed yet & why it’s taking so long? It’s the first thing you do when a relationship is breaking up, you don’t wait 3 years & then suddenly decide the best way to go about doing it.

[Espia]

Got to say it's all fascinating stuff though. I've found myself getting more involved thinking about politics in the last 2 to 3 years than I have in my entire life !

I even watch the Parliamentary Channel and have my favourite speakers ! Not ones I totally agree with but I'm in full admiration of their eloquence, forceful opinions, and delivery of a speech. Nigel Evans, Geoffrey Cox, Hillary Benn, Steve Baker, Ken Clarke and Stephen Barclay are all my favourites.

My least favourites are Anna Soubry, Yvette cooper, Diane Abbot and that little bespectacled northern labour woman whose name I can't remember but whose like one of those dolls that you a pulll on a string attached to her belly and she just spews out a party political diatribe . And .... in attempt to address the gender balance, that guy who's an mp for one of the Leeds district.

Who are your favourite and least favourite speakers ?

[Lancasterclaret]

What's the myth, Lancs?

Are you aware German car manufacturing is suffering a dowturn?

Hi Paul, I'm not convinced you are playing with a full deck.

You know if you've been following this that one of the favourite myths of the Brexit bunch is that they just have to ask the German car industry and they will make sure Merkel listens to them.

[Greenmile]

Yes a complete severance from the bureaucracy of the union, but also maintain a mutually beneficial trading agreement, you still haven’t explained why this hasn’t been completed yet & why it’s taking so long? It’s the first thing you do when a relationship is breaking up, you don’t wait 3 years & then suddenly decide the best way to go about doing it.

How will we trade without any bureaucracy?

[Jakubclaret]

How will we trade without any bureaucracy?

On WTO terms.


https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upload ... -Guide.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lancasterclaret]

The greatest nightmare of this is that people think they are experts on the WTO, and that its somehow a good idea.

It isn't, and the slightest bit of interest in researching it would tell you that.

[Greenmile]

On WTO terms.


https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upload ... -Guide.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You haven’t read your own link, have you?

I’m not surprised - it looks like it was written by experts.

[dsr]

To be honest, the biggest reason to avoid a "No Deal" is the dangers of putting NI under direct rule.

Even my economic focused remainer position is nowhere near as important as avoiding the dangers of that.

Careful. There are plenty of people who will accuse you of issuing threats, if you suggest that the government swinging one way or another will lead to civil disobedience.

[Greenmile]

Careful. There are plenty of people who will accuse you of issuing threats, if you suggest that the government swinging one way or another will lead to civil disobedience.

There’s a bit of a difference between the Troubles and a few red-faced pensioners smashing up a bus-stop in Hampstead in a fit of pique at not getting their own way.

[dsr]

And you expect us to fill a gap of well over 40% of our trade how, exactly?

Btw, if you think about those two numbers hard enough, you might get the answer to your question about how a no deal might hurt us more than Germany.

Here’s a clue to start you off - 40 is a bigger number than 18.

I think you have misunderstood what WTO rules mean. They don't mean that all trade will cease between the UK and the EU. What WTO rules means is that the rules of trade are governed by a different agreement; an agreement that includes some tariffs, it's true, which Lancaster says will increase costs of imports and exports by an average of 3%; some sectors more, some less. But WTO rules does not mean that our 40% of exports to the EU suddenly become nothing.

[aggi]

If WTO terms are so reasonable why are there only about a dozen countries in the world that use them exclusively?

[dsr]

There’s a bit of a difference between the Troubles and a few red-faced pensioners smashing up a bus-stop in Hampstead in a fit of pique at not getting their own way.

There's a lot of a difference. But just because Lancaster could be imputed (not by me, I hasten to add, but lots of other people are quick to rush in for this sort of thing) to be issuing threats of mass murder rather than minor riots, doesn't make the perceived offence any less serious. More so, I would have thought.

[Lancasterclaret]

Careful. There are plenty of people who will accuse you of issuing threats, if you suggest that the government swinging one way or another will lead to civil disobedience.

I've got a massive advantage over you here Dsr. I've been there before, during and after the GFA.

Once you've seen one Northern Irish Police station, it does tend to concentrate the mind somewhat about what is important, and what is not.

[dsr]

If WTO terms are so reasonable why are there only about a dozen countries in the world that use them exclusively?

Because trade deals are better than no deals.

No-one is suggesting that we won't have trade deals. You're thinking too short term. Just because there will be no trade deals in force on the day we leave, in accordance with the EU's negotiating position, does not mean we won't be signing them later. Most countries recognise that trade deals are a mutually good thing, and so trade deals will be signed. Possibly not with the EU, because the EU sees the principle of being nasty to the Brits as being paramount; but other countries don't share their prejudice.

[Paul Waine]

Hi Paul, I'm not convinced you are playing with a full deck.

You know if you've been following this that one of the favourite myths of the Brexit bunch is that they just have to ask the German car industry and they will make sure Merkel listens to them.

Hi Lancs, sincerely, I'm not playing... full deck or otherwise.

I'm not trying to make a brexit point, I'm asking if you know anything about the current financial health of German car manufacturing.

If you don't, then I've no problem with you saying so. If you don't want to answer, then that's also ok, if you say that.

[Lancasterclaret]

Hi Lancs, sincerely, I'm not playing... full deck or otherwise.

I'm not trying to make a brexit point, I'm asking if you know anything about the current financial health of German car manufacturing.

If you don't, then I've no problem with you saying so. If you don't want to answer, then that's also ok, if you say that.

I know absolutely nothing about German industrial production, but I do know that its not going to come riding to the rescue if we leave with a "No Deal" and that is what is being discussed.

[Greenmile]

There's a lot of a difference. But just because Lancaster could be imputed (not by me, I hasten to add, but lots of other people are quick to rush in for this sort of thing) to be issuing threats of mass murder rather than minor riots, doesn't make the perceived offence any less serious. More so, I would have thought.

You think saying “we should try to avoid bringing back the Troubles” is worse than saying “if we don’t get the exact Brexit we want, there will be riots”?

Classy, reasonable and honest as ever, dsr.

[Tall Paul]

Now you've just cherry picked my post, exactly what I dont do. I said that when it comes to any politician pulling facts and figures, I dont take any notice of any of them, whether Brexit or Remain.

Literally one post earlier, you said this:

The German opposition party in a speech in Brussels.
She stated that a no deal Brexit would do untold damage to the German economy as UK accounted for 15-18% of German exports.

Looks like you're taking notice of a politician pulling facts and figures there.

You couldn't make it up, the hypocrisy

[Greenmile]

Because trade deals are better than no deals.

No-one is suggesting that we won't have trade deals. You're thinking too short term. Just because there will be no trade deals in force on the day we leave, in accordance with the EU's negotiating position, does not mean we won't be signing them later. Most countries recognise that trade deals are a mutually good thing, and so trade deals will be signed. Possibly not with the EU, because the EU sees the principle of being nasty to the Brits as being paramount; but other countries don't share their prejudice.

You keep repeating this. It’s still a lie.

[dsr]

You think saying “we should try to avoid bringing back the Troubles” is worse than saying “if we don’t get the exact Brexit we want, there will be riots”?

Classy, reasonable and honest as ever, dsr.

Thank you for the compliment. Unfortunately, classy, reasonable and honest as it was, it has still whooshed past your comprehension levels.

[Greenmile]

I think you have misunderstood what WTO rules mean. They don't mean that all trade will cease between the UK and the EU. What WTO rules means is that the rules of trade are governed by a different agreement; an agreement that includes some tariffs, it's true, which Lancaster says will increase costs of imports and exports by an average of 3%; some sectors more, some less. But WTO rules does not mean that our 40% of exports to the EU suddenly become nothing.

That wasn’t the hypothetical scenario we were discussing.

Colburn said - “what happens to that 15-18% if the EU stops trading with the UK.”

Do try to keep up, dsr.

[Paul Waine]

If WTO terms are so reasonable why are there only about a dozen countries in the world that use them exclusively?

Hi aggi, I'm sure you know WTO - and previously, GATT - are the "globally" agreed base line set up for trade between countries that don't have any other trade agreement.

It's not surprising that many countries have trade agreements with, at least, some other countries.

We'd all have a better world if WTO established free trade for all countries. imagine...

[CrosspoolClarets]

The greatest nightmare of this is that people think they are experts on the WTO, and that its somehow a good idea.

It isn't, and the slightest bit of interest in researching it would tell you that.

Thus, as usual, Lancs abuses people for believing they are experts in the WTO, whilst himself asserting that he is an expert in the WTO (by using unequivocal language for probably the 500th time on this thread). It’s been done to me a couple of dozen times.

Personally, I don’t know if WTO is a good idea. I weigh up arguments and evidence, and judge that on balance May’s deal is probably better, a Customs Union is probably worse, and Remaining is far worse.

It is also WTO for the time being. That is crucial to the argument. Nobody, not even the brilliant mind of Lancs, knows how short this time would be, nor what could be mitigated.

[Greenmile]

Thank you for the compliment. Unfortunately, classy, reasonable and honest as it was, it has still whooshed past your comprehension levels.

More dsr dishonesty - you say something reprehensible, i call you out on it, so you falsely accuse me of having not understood you.

[dsr]

[deleted]

You "like" a post about being classy, and post this sort of stuff? I should report it direct to the mods in accordance with forum rules, but you're normally better than that, so I won't for the time being. But (unless you're willing to stand by your implied assertion that it's not in contradiction of the sticky about personal abuse) it ought to be removed.

[Greenmile]

Thus, as usual, Lancs abuses people for believing they are experts in the WTO, whilst himself asserting that he is an expert in the WTO (by using unequivocal language for probably the 500th time on this thread). It’s been done to me a couple of dozen times.

Personally, I don’t know if WTO is a good idea. I weigh up arguments and evidence, and judge that on balance May’s deal is probably better, a Customs Union is probably worse, and Remaining is far worse.

It is also WTO for the time being. That is crucial to the argument. Nobody, not even the brilliant mind of Lancs, knows how short this time would be, nor what could be mitigated.

You don’t need to be an expert if you’re willing to listen to experts.

[Lancasterclaret]

Thus, as usual, Lancs abuses people for believing they are experts in the WTO, whilst himself asserting that he is an expert in the WTO (by using unequivocal language for probably the 500th time on this thread). It’s been done to me a couple of dozen times.

Personally, I don’t know if WTO is a good idea. I weigh up arguments and evidence, and judge that on balance May’s deal is probably better, a Customs Union is probably worse, and Remaining is far worse.

It is also WTO for the time being. That is crucial to the argument. Nobody, not even the brilliant mind of Lancs, knows how short this time would be, nor what could be mitigated.

As usual, Crosspool is full of ****.

Never claimed to be a WTO expert, but I've read enough to know that its a really bad idea, and that the idea that its for a "short time" is unicornism at its finest.

But its not like I expect anything else from you two to be perfectly honest.

And I'm bright enough to know my limitations. You and Dsr are not.

[Paul Waine]

I know absolutely nothing about German industrial production, but I do know that its not going to come riding to the rescue if we leave with a "No Deal" and that is what is being discussed.

Ok, Lancs. Thanks for your response.

There is a question hanging somewhere in your response.... but, I'm going to leave it there.

Have a good night.

[CombatClaret]

Personally, I don’t know if WTO is a good idea. I weigh up arguments and evidence, and judge that on balance May’s deal is probably better, a Customs Union is probably worse, and Remaining is far worse.

It is also WTO for the time being. That is crucial to the argument. Nobody, not even the brilliant mind of Lancs, knows how short this time would be, nor what could be mitigated.

Here's a fact; Of the 35 advanced economies (IMF) like our own in the world, 27 are in Europe.
8 are in the rest of the world, none in Africa, none in South America.

So lets say FU to the EU because we can trade with the 80% of the rest of the world like the WTO clowns told us... but hang on, 80% of the world is poor!?
The entire GDP of Africa = half of France

[Lancasterclaret]

You "like" a post about being classy, and post this sort of stuff? I should report it direct to the mods in accordance with forum rules, but you're normally better than that, so I won't for the time being. But (unless you're willing to stand by your implied assertion that it's not in contradiction of the sticky about personal abuse) it ought to be removed.

Report away

I couldn't care less if I get banned.

[Lancasterclaret]

Ok, Lancs. Thanks for your response.

There is a question hanging somewhere in your response.... but, I'm going to leave it there.

Have a good night.

There really isn't.

[Paul Waine]

There really isn't.

Another time, maybe Lancs.

Good night.

[Lancasterclaret]

Just chatting to my mate in Keady (near the border in Armagh) whose been there 16 years (used to live next door but one to me when we were kids in Lancaster).

The difference between when he moved over there and now is absolutely amazing, and the difference to when I first worked over there and now is even more amazing.

That it might be put at risk by hard line brexiteers is criminal to be perfectly honest.

[Tall Paul]

On WTO terms.


https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upload ... -Guide.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think it's amazing that in order to advocate that we leave the EU with no deal and trade on WTO terms, you've linked to a document that concludes that:

No deal Brexit is clearly an unsatisfactory solution and falling back on WTO terms suboptimal politically, economically and socially.

[Colburn_Claret]

You asked (several times) how a no deal would harm us more than Germany. I gave you an answer, and now you’re basically saying they should be nicer to us and give us a deal. Make your mind up.

That's not what I'm saying, it's what you are saying. I dont think they are bastards, you do. The only scenario where we get hurt more than Germany is if they choose to cut their noses off. It won't happen, you're pinning your beliefs on a ridiculous assumption, not facts.

[Colburn_Claret]

Is that the AfD candidate?

I think it was, but not 100% certain.

[nil_desperandum]

Yes a complete severance from the bureaucracy of the union, but also maintain a mutually beneficial trading agreement,

Ah see, so not "total severance" then as you posted in the initial post that I referred to.
That clears it up

[Colburn_Claret]

I quoted your entire post. It said exactly what I suggested it said.

How’s that cherry picking?

I don’t think “hypocrisy” means what you think it means, either.

I said I agreed with them that the EU is undemocratic, I didn't say I thought it was undemocratic because Boris Johnson or any other politician said so. I made my own mind up about that, like a big boy.
Lord Beamish asked whether I believed in the honesty of those politicians fighting for Brexit, and I don't, just as I dont believe those fighting for Remain. Yet somehow you twisted it to look as if I did. Bizarre.