Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:22 pm

The current deal with a CU wouldn't be ideal, but it would be Brexit and it would be broadly supported.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:23 pm

bfcjg wrote:I think we should come out with the current deal that has been negotiated with give and take on both sides but with a provision we can have another referendum to remain anytime after say 2 years just so we have a genuine backstop.
See I could accept that.
If the 1st Referendum result is enacted then further democracy to re-affirm or reverse that is acceptable.
I’d question the time frame and the reality of being able to rejoin but yes that’s democracy.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:25 pm

If they don't sort out a deal by end of next week, then we need to ask for a long extension. Then we can at least do this correctly.

If you don't want MPs to revoke, don't keep asking for a "No Deal"

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:35 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:That how fanatics justify doing something silly.

You can't vote for something that you know will be bad.
I actually said when I voted Leave that I had probably a strange reasoning in that I did not believe that an unchecked Tory Government was better for the Country than the one with EU Regulations controlling it.
But as a means to an end I believed that in order to avoid the problems that I think the EU is walking headlong into and to make this country better in the long term we had to be Sovereign.
Too complex to explain on here and too Utopian maybe and most likely never to materialise.
But I’m a dreamer

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:40 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:The current deal with a CU wouldn't be ideal, but it would be Brexit and it would be broadly supported.
The current deal????
It has no deals attached to it.
The EU would not negotiate any deals until we agreed a departure and handed over 39 billion.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:42 pm

To Labour supporters and Remainers
Do you want a GE now

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:54 pm

Not sure what you mean?

The Withdrawal agreement plus a political declaration with a CU is what I meant.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:08 pm

Being in the customs union will 'minimise' problems on the Irish border and it should be possible to negotiate an independent immigration policy (end of free movement).

Against that, we will not be able to negotiate bespoke international trade deals and will still have to pay the EU for customs union access (far less than our current £9 billion net payment though).

So, it will be a partial-Brexit but it might be the only one which will be approved by parliament.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:24 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Actually, no.
I thought it was down to an international banking crisis and crash, and I also recall, (backed up by evidence), that Osborne supported all Labour's spending plans, (and indeed often said he would spend more), until the point that we had the crash.
I also recall that internationally Gordon Brown was given a lot of credit for his handling of the crisis.
But ten years on, continue to blame austerity solely on the previous Labour administration if you want to believe that.
Hi nil_d, that's an interesting view on what actually happened.

Why do you think the "international banking crisis" happened? US and UK gov't thrilled at the idea that everyone could buy a house - even though they couldn't afford to pay a mortgage. I guess you've seen the "Big Short." Even the small UK banks were "in deep" in offering anyone and everyone ridiculous "mortgage" loans. I'm sure you remember Northern Rock and their 125% mortgages? And, then there was Gordon Brown's love of PPI.

It's no good setting up an economic policy that says" it's all working fine, so far" when with just one small mis-step it will all come crashing down.

Remember the guy that wrote the note: "There's no money left." That's where the, so called, "austerity" comes from.

Agree, Gordon Brown was "given a lot of credit" but only with other governments. Maybe he did realise what a deep pit he had dragged us all in to. We were never goving to get out of it if he'd remained in No.10.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:42 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi nil_d, that's an interesting view on what actually happened.

Why do you think the "international banking crisis" happened? US and UK gov't thrilled at the idea that everyone could buy a house - even though they couldn't afford to pay a mortgage. I guess you've seen the "Big Short." Even the small UK banks were "in deep" in offering anyone and everyone ridiculous "mortgage" loans. I'm sure you remember Northern Rock and their 125% mortgages? And, then there was Gordon Brown's love of PPI.

It's no good setting up an economic policy that says" it's all working fine, so far" when with just one small mis-step it will all come crashing down.

Remember the guy that wrote the note: "There's no money left." That's where the, so called, "austerity" comes from.

Agree, Gordon Brown was "given a lot of credit" but only with other governments. Maybe he did realise what a deep pit he had dragged us all in to. We were never goving to get out of it if he'd remained in No.10.
Much truth in all that Paul, but as I posted, the problem with your post is that -at the time - it was just about all supported by Osborne and the official opposition.
Only Vince Cable, amongst leading politicians was acalling it out for what it was.
PPI, (e.g.) was a Tory idea that Labour pinched.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:06 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:I actually said when I voted Leave that I had probably a strange reasoning in that I did not believe that an unchecked Tory Government was better for the Country than the one with EU Regulations controlling it.
But as a means to an end I believed that in order to avoid the problems that I think the EU is walking headlong into and to make this country better in the long term we had to be Sovereign.
Too complex to explain on here and too Utopian maybe and most likely never to materialise.
But I’m a dreamer
I’ll help you out here, we are sovereign.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:10 pm

Regarding the far right wave sweeping Europe?

Not here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47756368" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:01 pm

Mala591 wrote:Being in the customs union will 'minimise' problems on the Irish border and it should be possible to negotiate an independent immigration policy (end of free movement).

Against that, we will not be able to negotiate bespoke international trade deals and will still have to pay the EU for customs union access (far less than our current £9 billion net payment though).

So, it will be a partial-Brexit but it might be the only one which will be approved by parliament.
Should be possible to negotiate. Well that would go well with the EU.

We are in danger of rushing into ill thought out arrangements as a so called compromise by a remain dominated HOC. I voted for free trade and controlling our money borders and laws as well. Just like anyone else who voted leave and understood the issues did. The pms deal gives a chance of that. None of the wishy washy leave options being discussed tomorrow do, but could also happen if the deal is accepted.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:17 pm

ClaretAndJew wrote:Only mentions labour in his post as a reason for Austerity then suggests he wasn't just blaming Labour. GGWP
Part of reason...
Clearly a number of you like to read something and twist it to suit your own agendas :roll:
Last edited by GodIsADeeJay81 on Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:23 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:Yes. Labour are responsible for the global financial meltdown.
Nope, not even close.

Read it and try again.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:06 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Much truth in all that Paul, but as I posted, the problem with your post is that -at the time - it was just about all supported by Osborne and the official opposition.
Only Vince Cable, amongst leading politicians was acalling it out for what it was.
PPI, (e.g.) was a Tory idea that Labour pinched.
Hi nil_d, I've no idea where Cameron and Osborne where pre-2008 - not really my point. Yes, a little PPI was introduced by John Major - but, Brown went, big on it, very big in fact, and with weak contract terms, that's where PPI became a big problem.

Lot's of people "in the industry" were concerned about the level of risk with all the "weak covenant," sub-prime, "liar-loans" mortgage lending. But, as I said, the UK gov't and the US gov't were in favour of people who couldnt afford buying houses and the "illusion" that their economic policies were a success and making everyone better off.

We can say the same for most of the euro zone: everyone buying properties (and new kitchens, holidays, new cars etc) on borrowed money like there was no tomorrow because the euro had given them all extremely low "german" interest rates, rather than the much higher rates their own currencies had existed on. The "PIIGS" learnt the hard way how this would work out for them.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:15 am

Paul Waine wrote:Hi nil_d, I've no idea where Cameron and Osborne where pre-2008 - not really my point. Yes, a little PPI was introduced by John Major - but, Brown went, big on it, very big in fact, and with weak contract terms, that's where PPI became a big problem.
.
Here are a couple of examples that illustrate the extent to which Cameron and Osborne were supportive of Labour's fiscal policy:

We will match Labour spending plans for three years, say Tories ...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... vatives.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So it appears they would have carried on spending until 2010 were it not for the crash.

Osborne pledges to maintain spending | Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/b3783f1c-dc0 ... 00779fd2ac" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This Independent article also supports the point I was trying to make:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 86820.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:21 am

Ah so what you're not seeing is what opposition party will do to sway voters by making promises.

Labour were against a Tory policy until Blair took over and went overboard with the PPI that's being mentioned.

I assume we can mention that can't we, I usually get stick for pointing these things out by Labourites on here :roll:
Last edited by GodIsADeeJay81 on Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:30 am

martin_p wrote:We’ve had a general election since the referendum so parliament is already aligned to the people. We’ve already said no to a hard Brexit.
That's a stretch. If a candidate says "Vote for me, I support Brexit", and then gets elected and opposes Brexit, it's not really "aligning to the people". I know manifestos, like referenda, are "advisory", but gaining votes on false pretences is not "alignment with the people".
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:15 am

Today's options. Surely the tories will whip against all soft brexit options and a referendum.

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-crisis ... s-11681111" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:23 am

It depends on what their strategy is.

If its the only deal is Mays or a "No Deal", then they will (but that just reinforces the belief that its Conservative Party first, and country second)

If they are (finally) understanding that a softer Brexit will get through the Houses of Parliament and is probably more popular in the country than either of the more extreme options, then they might not.

The problem is that if Labour finally work out how to get every other party + DUP + Tory remainers on side, then it doesn't matter when the Conservative party and the PM do.

The problem is that 176 (178? can't remember) Conservative MPs think a "Hard Brexit" is the right way to go. Thats over half her MPs.

I don't feel sorry for her in the slightest, but it would take a far better politician and PM than Theresa May to navigate successfully through that.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:25 am

Parliament role explained (in great detail)

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status ... 5089879041" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:26 am

dsr wrote:That's a stretch. If a candidate says "Vote for me, I support Brexit", and then gets elected and opposes Brexit, it's not really "aligning to the people". I know manifestos, like referenda, are "advisory", but gaining votes on false pretences is not "alignment with the people".
Like the referendum then?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:37 am

No deal is well gone and even more ergers know it. Surely they will decide now that the only chance of a proper brexit is to get behind mays **** deal.

No deal or soft brexit spilts her party down the middle so surely they will compromise i.e. back her deal.

Of the options today the only one i would vote for is

Unilateral right to get out of backstop. I know the EU won't agree but it reinforces the only thing that the HOC has passed amd therefore that there is a majority to leave with a none soft Brexit. It won't be selected by mr limelight but should be.

So hopefully nothing else gets a majority today and we come back to mays deal ( with the concession promised last friday to let HOC decide the approach to trade on due course) on weds. How can anyone that believes in democracy not support that?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:41 am

summitclaret wrote:No deal is well gone and even more ergers know it. Surely they will decide now that the only chance of a proper brexit is to get behind mays **** deal.

No deal or soft brexit spilts her party down the middle so surely they will compromise i.e. back her deal.

Of the options today the only one i would vote for is

Unilateral right to get out of backstop. I know the EU won't agree but it reinforces the only thing that the HOC has passed amd therefore that there is a majority to leave with a none soft Brexit. It won't be selected by mr limelight but should be.

So hopefully nothing else gets a majority today and we come back to mays deal ( with the concession promised last friday to let HOC decide the approach to trade on due course) on weds. How can anyone that believes in democracy not support that?
Because of the 'backtrap'?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:46 am

Yes but we are stuffed on that for now. All of the soft brexits are possible with May's deal especially with the above concession. Also a free trade deal is. We have a chance now to end the uncertainty, honour the referundum, honour both the labour and Tory manifestos and start to put things back together in the country.

Alternatively we could go for a referendum and stoke up more trouble.

Can we all agree on this?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:50 am

summitclaret wrote:Yes but we are stuffed on that for now. All of the soft brexits are possible with May's deal especially with the above concession. Also a free trade deal is. We have a chance now to end the uncertainty, honour the referundum, honour both the labour and Tory manifestos and start to put things back together in the country.

Alternatively we could go for a referendum and stoke up more trouble.

Can we all agree on this?
But I thought you thought the 'backtrap' was so bad you'd prefer to revoke Article 50 and start again.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:50 am

Edit. If that is not enough, if you want a new government, the DUP may well pull the C and S agreement if May's deal goes through.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:52 am

martin_p wrote:But I thought you thought the 'backtrap' was so bad you'd prefer to revoke Article 50 and start again.
Everyone has to compromise. Will you support my suggested way forward if not why?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:05 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Parliament role explained (in great detail)

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status ... 5089879041" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Everyone should read this.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:11 am

And what about thd labour and tory manifestos?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:15 am

summitclaret wrote:Everyone has to compromise. Will you support my suggested way forward if not why?
Because it's a fudge. You can't honour both Labour and Tory manifestos, they had very different views on what Brexit should look like. One side isn't going to get their way and offering Labour a 'blind Brexit' on the off chance they might get their way later is treating them like they're stupid to be honest (and thankfully they haven't fallen for it).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:24 am

Its business time now. The country has to get off the fence. Labour has s chance to show even with Corbyn it can put the country first. Imo it will have a better chance in the next election if it takes it.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:30 am

summitclaret wrote:Its business time now. The country has to get off the fence. Labour has s chance to show even with Corbyn it can put the country first. Imo it will have a better chance in the next election if it takes it.
It will feel it's putting the country first by wanting a customs union. If you have different views on what's best for the country then asking people to put their country first isn't going to resolve anything. If you asked me to put my country first I'd say let's ahve another referendum then.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:30 am

summitclaret wrote:Everyone has to compromise. Will you support my suggested way forward if not why?
I've been compromising since 2016

And so have a lot of people. And they have ignored because May listened to the ERG.

Why do you think the DUP stated last weekend of all weekends that they were "unionists first and Brexiteers 2nd". Because they needed to remind all Brexiteers that they were unionists first.

I don't agree with their analysis of the dangers of the backstop, and I think they are being unrealistic in expecting NI to have even more of a special case than it is already, but they are the key.

They said they would rather remain than sign this deal.

Bringing Mays deal back again just wastes time we haven't got unless it adds a CU clause.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:32 am

martin_p wrote:It will feel it's putting the country first by wanting a customs union. If you have different views on what's best for the country then asking people to put their country first isn't going to resolve anything. If you asked me to put my country first I'd say let's ahve another referendum then.
If that is the question, then it's revoke article 50. Whatever we do now is going to be bad, so we might as well do the best thing for the economy as a priority.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:36 am

The EU forced us to separate the WA from trade talks which we should never have accepted. Its silly to suddenly add the latter in now without proper thought on the detail.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:36 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:If that is the question, then it's revoke article 50. Whatever we do now is going to be bad, so we might as well do the best thing for the economy as a priority.
Yes, that's what I first typed, but on reflection thought that doing that without a second referendum may cause further deep divisions in the country. It's a close call though.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:41 am

martin_p wrote:Yes, that's what I first typed, but on reflection thought that doing that without a second referendum may cause further deep divisions in the country. It's a close call though.
It's a matter of what is more important to you - democracy, or money. Obviously to you, money is the thing and democracy be hanged. Still, it's nice to know that you do (if only tangentially) consider the effect on the country of deciding that the democratic majority can't have its way.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:44 am

dsr wrote:It's a matter of what is more important to you - democracy, or money. Obviously to you, money is the thing and democracy be hanged. Still, it's nice to know that you do (if only tangentially) consider the effect on the country of deciding that the democratic majority can't have its way.
Democracy is important to me. Maybe read the twitter link Lancater posted above to find out what it means. Whether you like it or not the democratic process is being followed and nothing undemocratic has happened or will happen.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:52 am

Are you sure. What if the EU refuse an extension and tgat forces a revocation? It is more likely than no deal. If that democracy is dead. Both Labour and tories may be on the way out. Either way the turnout would be an all tine low.

This will start with the local elections on 2 may where turn out could be a total embarrassment.

If this happens something will eventually happen that is much more unpleasant.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:56 am

dsr wrote:It's a matter of what is more important to you - democracy, or money. Obviously to you, money is the thing and democracy be hanged. Still, it's nice to know that you do (if only tangentially) consider the effect on the country of deciding that the democratic majority can't have its way.
Democracy is more important. But we are a parliamentary democracy.

You don't enact generations affecting legislation on a close advisory referendum. You enact the wish to leave (of course) but only when its planned so that its not a disaster.

I know its hindsight and all that, but we needed a PM who had the realisation that it had to be planned correctly or it wouldn't work.

By listening to the hardliners (who will keep telling you, whatever anybody else says, that we shouldn't fear a No Deal, be that Dsr on here or Mogg on the tv) who refuse to accept any other alternative, May has made a bad situation even worse.

Whatever happens now, the blame lies squarely at the feet of the ERG and the PM.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by summitclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:08 am

90% of Tory mps now support May's compromise deal. 90% plus of labour mps don't currently. It's obvious which party supports brexit. However if the rest if the erg don't back off now then yes they will have a part in the failure.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:23 am

They were saying Mays deal wasn't Brexit a couple of months ago.

I'm sorry, but they are changing due to "reality", not any real belief and will try to change as much as possible once it goes through.

Any Lab MP backing this has to know that.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:23 am

The Labour Party should make a clear decision ( is that an oxymoron? ) and commit to supporting May's withdrawal agreement if a customs union is guaranteed in the political declaration.

This would be an positive and intelligent strategic decision and may even restore a little bit of faith in their democratic credentials.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:23 am

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:Ah so what you're not seeing is what opposition party will do to sway voters by making promises.

Labour were against a Tory policy until Blair took over and went overboard with the PPI that's being mentioned.

I assume we can mention that can't we, I usually get stick for pointing these things out by Labourites on here :roll:
No great argument with those points, but they do absolutely nothing to disprove my initial point that it was an international financial crisis that led to the Tory policy of austerity, and that whilst Labour fiscal policies of the previous decade contributed towards the serious fall-out, there was virtually no opposition to Labour's fiscal policies, and they enjoyed widespread support across the country.
If Cameron and Osborne had considered them to be irresponsible then they should have been listening to Cable, (and one or two others) and expressing concerns.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:23 am

Worth looking at the Joanne Cherry amendment today

Basically its asking the people want they want, rather than telling them this is what they voted for.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:25 am

summitclaret wrote:90% of Tory mps now support May's compromise deal. .
That's absolutely not true.
Perhaps you mean 90% voted for it?. That's not the same thing, and some high profile Tories have said that.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:30 am

nil_desperandum wrote:No great argument with those points, but they do absolutely nothing to disprove my initial point that it was an international financial crisis that led to the Tory policy of austerity, and that whilst Labour fiscal policies of the previous decade contributed towards the serious fall-out, there was virtually no opposition to Labour's fiscal policies, and they enjoyed widespread support across the country.
If Cameron and Osborne had considered them to be irresponsible then they should have been listening to Cable, (and one or two others) and expressing concerns.
If they'd expressed concerns do you honestly think it would've stopped Labour from doing it?
No it wouldn't quite simply, it always seems rare that the opposition stop a government from doing much.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by nil_desperandum » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:37 am

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:If they'd expressed concerns do you honestly think it would've stopped Labour from doing it?
No it wouldn't quite simply, it always seems rare that the opposition stop a government from doing much.
Again you're missing the point.You're putting forward a different argument to the one I was making.
I didn't suggest that the opposition could have stopped it. I'm saying that once in power (via a coalition with Cable and the Libs) they shifted all the blame for the crash onto Labour fiscal policy - having not questioned it up until the banks collapsed. They blamed austerity 100% on Labour, and convinced the public that this was the case.

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