You've said this repeatedly and always solely focus on the numbers. In reality it will screw up a significant part of our service sector exports as there are a lot of non-tariff barriers. It will probably also hugely damage a large part of our agriculture sector (we won't be able to export any meat to the EU)dsr wrote:I take it your latest ban ended at midnight?
Do variable exchange rates have any impact on our exports? If Sterling increases in value by 10%, how much do exports change by? What if Sterling loses 10% of its value? That's the best practical guide to how much exports will alter under WTO, because exchange rates in some way mirror part of the issue.
Just looking at the numbers as you have gives a very small piece of the picture (and you've also ignored the logistics issues where what was frictionless trade now has some hold-ups). We're not just going to trade exactly as we are but with price fluctuations, that's a very simplistic view.