Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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aggi
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Fri May 31, 2019 11:10 am

dsr wrote:I take it your latest ban ended at midnight?

Do variable exchange rates have any impact on our exports? If Sterling increases in value by 10%, how much do exports change by? What if Sterling loses 10% of its value? That's the best practical guide to how much exports will alter under WTO, because exchange rates in some way mirror part of the issue.
You've said this repeatedly and always solely focus on the numbers. In reality it will screw up a significant part of our service sector exports as there are a lot of non-tariff barriers. It will probably also hugely damage a large part of our agriculture sector (we won't be able to export any meat to the EU)

Just looking at the numbers as you have gives a very small piece of the picture (and you've also ignored the logistics issues where what was frictionless trade now has some hold-ups). We're not just going to trade exactly as we are but with price fluctuations, that's a very simplistic view.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 31, 2019 11:10 am

aggi wrote:Latest polling for the next election shows an entertaining situation

Westminster voting intention:

LDem: 24% (+6)
Brex: 22% (+4)
Con: 19% (-5)
Lab: 19% (-5)
Grn: 8% (+2)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 17 May

(Obviously this is going to change massively by the time a vote actually comes round but it seems it's the first time since polling started that the top two parties have been outside the top spots.)
Really bad news for the Conservatives (will lose seats in the SW and South to the Lib Dems, and seats in the E to the Brexit Party) and Labour (will lose seats in London to the Lib Dems, and to the Brexit Party in the North and Midlands)

Both of them are getting punished for the state of the country at the moment, and as Labour haven't been in power for years thats some achievement for the Corbynistas.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Fri May 31, 2019 11:23 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Really bad news for the Conservatives (will lose seats in the SW and South to the Lib Dems, and seats in the E to the Brexit Party) and Labour (will lose seats in London to the Lib Dems, and to the Brexit Party in the North and Midlands)

Both of them are getting punished for the state of the country at the moment, and as Labour haven't been in power for years thats some achievement for the Corbynistas.
Brexit party was unprompted and hid behind "others" you had to say other before they asked about brexit party.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Fri May 31, 2019 11:28 am

A time limit to the backstop?

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 39296?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by JohnMcGreal » Fri May 31, 2019 12:08 pm

AndyClaret wrote:A time limit to the backstop?

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 39296?s=19" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Nope.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Fri May 31, 2019 12:10 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Brexit party was unprompted and hid behind "others" you had to say other before they asked about brexit party.
Which historically has produced more accurate results.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Fri May 31, 2019 12:17 pm

Of course, this explanation will be inconvenient to those Brexit Party supporters who have grown accustomed to the idea that they are victims of establishment oppression, which is why Farage knows he can entice the gullible fools with terms like "Fake Polling". He's pedalling a false narrative knowing that people like AndyClaret will fall for it.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Fri May 31, 2019 1:11 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:Of course, this explanation will be inconvenient to those Brexit Party supporters who have grown accustomed to the idea that they are victims of establishment oppression, which is why Farage knows he can entice the gullible fools with terms like "Fake Polling". He's pedalling a false narrative knowing that people like AndyClaret will fall for it.
Let's see what happens when they are prompted big boy.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Fri May 31, 2019 1:16 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Let's see what happens when they are prompted big boy.

What do you think a comparison between a prompted question and an unprompted question will, or even might, demonstrate?

If a prompted question yields a higher response rate for the smaller party what do you think that proves?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Fri May 31, 2019 1:48 pm

Thoughts about creating a new Brexit Party general election manifesto:

Just copy the Conservative party manifesto with an edited section regarding leaving the EU on WTO trading terms.

Job done.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 31, 2019 1:49 pm

See the leader of the party who can't ever be removed from leadership and has no policies has complained to YouGov

Can't understand how the Brexit Party aren't leading the poll apparently

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Fri May 31, 2019 2:06 pm

Mala591 wrote:Thoughts about creating a new Brexit Party general election manifesto:

Just copy the Conservative party manifesto with an edited section regarding leaving the EU on WTO trading terms.

Job done.
Edit: Also reduce university fees to a maximum of £5,000 per year to 'bribe' students to vote for Brexit Party.

Any other ideas out there?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Fri May 31, 2019 2:09 pm

I love how a party promising to do something the public wants it to do is called a "bribe", but when Farage accepts hundreds of thousands of pounds from corrupt businessmen we're supposed to think that that's all OK and above board.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by bfcjg » Fri May 31, 2019 8:49 pm

Celebs who live abroad in the main to avoid tax but bash on about Brexit and how terrible it is make me laugh.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/news/elton-jo ... 06632.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri May 31, 2019 8:54 pm

John Cleese?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri May 31, 2019 9:01 pm

bfcjg wrote:Celebs who live abroad in the main to avoid tax but bash on about Brexit and how terrible it is make me laugh.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/news/elton-jo ... 06632.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Elton John is a bad pick as, while he does have properties abroad, his main residence is in the U.K.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by bfcjg » Fri May 31, 2019 9:01 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:John Cleese?
No I'm not.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by bfcjg » Fri May 31, 2019 9:06 pm

martin_p wrote:Elton John is a bad pick as, while he does have properties abroad, his main residence is in the U.K.
Come on Martin lets not let facts in the way of a rant. :D

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri May 31, 2019 9:26 pm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standa ... html%3famp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It’s hard to know exactly what Cleese meant by saying London isn’t an English city anymore, because he hasn’t elaborated, but when it comes to Brexit fans who’ve talked up Britain’s new international global outlook, isn’t this what they want?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri May 31, 2019 9:49 pm

AndrewJB wrote:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standa ... html%3famp

It’s hard to know exactly what Cleese meant by saying London isn’t an English city anymore, because he hasn’t elaborated, but when it comes to Brexit fans who’ve talked up Britain’s new international global outlook, isn’t this what they want?
It’s a bit of an odd one to be honest and another storm in a tea cup type thing that social media creates. Also ironic that some of the responses criticising Cleese, especially the one from Sadiq Khan, proudly proclaim that London is a european city, which sort of backs up the point being criticised.

All part of the over sensitivity the divide that Brexit has created has magnified to an intense level.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by tim_noone » Fri May 31, 2019 10:21 pm

My mutha 88 years young just rang me up complaining about Britains got talent on TV tonight......"every one was foreign" except for one chap!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:18 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Brexit party was unprompted and hid behind "others" you had to say other before they asked about brexit party.
There are forces at work
Apparently they didn’t win the Euro elections either
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:21 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:See the leader of the party who can't ever be removed from leadership and has no policies has complained to YouGov

Can't understand how the Brexit Party aren't leading the poll apparently
Leave Jeremy and Labour alone

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:21 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:There are forces at work
Apparently they didn’t win the Euro elections either
Of course they are, problem is they are manipulating you mate.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:24 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:Leave Jeremy and Labour alone
The reason people call out the Brexit Party is because it acts like a fascist party.

The longer its run as Nigel Farages personal company, the more people are going to be questioning it.

And everyone is waiting with baited breath for its policies, its internal disciplinary procedures and everything else you need to be a functioning democratic party.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:30 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Of course they are, problem is they are manipulating you mate.
I think it’s safe to say we’re all being manipulated. They all go on about learning the lessons of elections on the night and yet are soon spinning the same half truths and statistics to try to bully others into their view... with inevitable name calling if they fail.

It comes from “career politicians” who have know understanding over how the world actually works having been selected from exam results.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:33 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:The reason people call out the Brexit Party is because it acts like a fascist party.

The longer its run as Nigel Farages personal company, the more people are going to be questioning it.

And everyone is waiting with baited breath for its policies, its internal disciplinary procedures and everything else you need to be a functioning democratic party.
Are we still talking about the London.. I mean Labour Party

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:38 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Of course they are, problem is they are manipulating you mate.
Oh my mind is my own
But
I share with Mr Farage the view that this country cannot make the best of itself if not in charge of itself

However what he would do with that freedom and what I would do are miles apart.

So I am one of his strange bed fellows for now

I also believe that this country is not best served run by the West Minster Parliament and the current voting system, as he does too.

He needs no policies he has no wish to lead the country once it is liberated

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:50 pm

It surprises me that the main thread of the main political parties politics are to attack the Brexit party who don’t have any. They will never learn. The Brexit party like UKIP are unbeatable while “real” parties are too busy trying to rubbish them to actually get on with sorting the mess out.

God help us when the proper politics of leaving START being discussed. This bit was never even supposed to be anything more than setting it in motion and should never have been open to further political discussion following the referendum. Forcing it back to parliament (through the courts) was always meant to derail brexit. Whatever your views this was a forced change in the British political process... and this mess is the result.

Until the main parties spend more time thinking what is the practical solution rather than attacking each other, new more extreme elements will continue to dominate.

Unfortunately we have possibly the poorest set of democratic parliamentarians since the Wars of the three kingdoms (civil wars) dragging us through the mire. Expect little to change.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by BleedingClaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:00 pm

elwaclaret wrote:It surprises me that the main thread of the main political parties politics are to attack the Brexit party who don’t have any. They will never learn. The Brexit party like UKIP are unbeatable while “real” parties are too busy trying to rubbish them to actually get on with sorting the mess out.

God help us when the proper politics of leaving START being discussed. This bit was never even supposed to be anything more than setting it in motion and should never have been open to further political discussion following the referendum. Forcing it back to parliament (through the courts) was always meant to derail brexit. Whatever your views this was a forced change in the British political process... and this mess is the result.

Until the main parties spend more time thinking what is the practical solution rather than attacking each other, new more extreme elements will continue to dominate.

Unfortunately we have possibly the poorest set of democratic parliamentarians since the Wars of the three kingdoms (civil wars) dragging us through the mire. Expect little to change.
It’s ok they have it sussed on all future voting slips you will have to lift a little partly glued tab to reveal Brexit Party in a smaller font

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:06 pm

BleedingClaret wrote:Oh my mind is my own
But
I share with Mr Farage the view that this country cannot make the best of itself if not in charge of itself

However what he would do with that freedom and what I would do are miles apart.

So I am one of his strange bed fellows for now

I also believe that this country is not best served run by the West Minster Parliament and the current voting system, as he does too.

He needs no policies he has no wish to lead the country once it is liberated
That last line is painfully naive.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:07 pm

elwaclaret wrote:It surprises me that the main thread of the main political parties politics are to attack the Brexit party who don’t have any. They will never learn. The Brexit party like UKIP are unbeatable while “real” parties are too busy trying to rubbish them to actually get on with sorting the mess out.

God help us when the proper politics of leaving START being discussed. This bit was never even supposed to be anything more than setting it in motion and should never have been open to further political discussion following the referendum. Forcing it back to parliament (through the courts) was always meant to derail brexit. Whatever your views this was a forced change in the British political process... and this mess is the result.

Until the main parties spend more time thinking what is the practical solution rather than attacking each other, new more extreme elements will continue to dominate.

Unfortunately we have possibly the poorest set of democratic parliamentarians since the Wars of the three kingdoms (civil wars) dragging us through the mire. Expect little to change.
Well no, its just reinforcing that we are a parliamentary democracy.

One of the more disappointing things about these three years is watching intelligent people tie themselves in knots to try to justify their point of view, rather than looking at it rationally and acknowledging that their point of view is wrong.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:18 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Well no, its just reinforcing that we are a parliamentary democracy.

One of the more disappointing things about these three years is watching intelligent people tie themselves in knots to try to justify their point of view, rather than looking at it rationally and acknowledging that their point of view is wrong.
No the really disappointing thing about politics is that democracy is a play thing. Nobody is willing to bend because they are convinced anyone not sharing their view is wrong. There is simply no right or wrong in this... that is the problem. One mans truth is another’s lie.... it is why democracy is so much more useful than totalitarianism... unfortunately “leave” and “remain” are absolute positions.... to a vastly complicated problem. Just proving the incompetence of parliament.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:23 pm

elwaclaret wrote:No the really disappointing thing about politics is that democracy is a play thing. Nobody is willing to bend because they are convinced anyone not sharing their view is wrong. There is simply no right or wrong in this... that is the problem. One mans truth is another’s lie.... it is why democracy is so much more useful than totalitarianism... unfortunately “leave” and “remain” are absolute positions.... to a vastly complicated problem. Just proving the incompetence of parliament.
Again, thats total crap

Are we a parliamentary democracy, or not?

Knots mate, you are tying yourself in knots to try to justify a point of view that is incorrect.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:29 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Again, thats total crap

Are we a parliamentary democracy, or not?

Knots mate, you are tying yourself in knots to try to justify a point of view that is incorrect.
Politics summed up. I bow to you far greater grasp of the subject and see I no longer have a voice in your utopian land Lancaster. Long live democracy.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndyClaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:36 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Politics summed up. I bow to you far greater grasp of the subject and see I no longer have a voice in your utopian land Lancaster. Long live democracy.
This.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:36 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Politics summed up. I bow to you far greater grasp of the subject and see I no longer have a voice in your utopian land Lancaster. Long live democracy.
I find it amazing you stand up for liberal rights on all manner of issues that have only risen with Post Modernism, yet you deny its central core... there is no definite right or wrong... only positions taken through socialisation. I think it is you that has their politics mixed up Lancaster.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:08 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Politics summed up. I bow to you far greater grasp of the subject and see I no longer have a voice in your utopian land Lancaster. Long live democracy.
Are we a parliamentary democracy or not?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:09 pm

AndyClaret wrote:This.
Congrats elwa, you've now got a lifetime of having posts liked by andyclaret

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:11 pm

elwaclaret wrote:I find it amazing you stand up for liberal rights on all manner of issues that have only risen with Post Modernism, yet you deny its central core... there is no definite right or wrong... only positions taken through socialisation. I think it is you that has their politics mixed up Lancaster.
But there is a definite right or wrong on the question of whether we are a parliamentary democracy or not.

You are veering into Ringo territory here!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by elwaclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:31 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:But there is a definite right or wrong on the question of whether we are a parliamentary democracy or not.

You are veering into Ringo territory here!
I’m not invading anyone’s territory Lancaster. I came on this thread to have serious debate, my position is as always fluid... I am what used to be called a democrat ( notice small d). When I voted I expected a decent compromise to be in place by now. Fixed positions are not conducive to compromise. Was I against freedom of movement? Not particularly. Or free trade with Europe? Certainly not. I was hoping good honest debate would ensue. While I pride myself on being open minded I am the first to admit on this topic I was naive to assume our democracy would kick in and beat absolutism. Sadly

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:47 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Are we a parliamentary democracy or not?
I used to think we were. But in a parliamentary democracy, just as in any other democracy, the people's opinions are paramount; this lot are behaving as if parliament is sovereign and the people's vote comes second.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:51 pm

elwaclaret wrote:I’m not invading anyone’s territory Lancaster. I came on this thread to have serious debate, my position is as always fluid... I am what used to be called a democrat ( notice small d). When I voted I expected a decent compromise to be in place by now. Fixed positions are not conducive to compromise. Was I against freedom of movement? Not particularly. Or free trade with Europe? Certainly not. I was hoping good honest debate would ensue. While I pride myself on being open minded I am the first to admit on this topic I was naive to assume our democracy would kick in and beat absolutism. Sadly
I wanted the compromise, but the uber Brexiteers did not.

They now tell us that we always voted for this, when all the evidence suggests we didn't.

I'd be very careful about throwing absolutism around on either side on this one, but a minority want their way and won't let anything stop it.

Only one side threatens violence on the streets if it doesn't get its way

Only one side said it would pick up a rifle and head for the hills if it doesn't get its way

Only one side has a political party in which it is literally "One man, one vote".

You know your history elwa, so tell me, what does that tell you?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:54 pm

dsr wrote:I used to think we were. But in a parliamentary democracy, just as in any other democracy, the people's opinions are paramount; this lot are behaving as if parliament is sovereign and the people's vote comes second.
We are a parliamentary democracy.

That post I made about intelligent people tying themselves in knots? You and elwa are absolutely doing it with this one.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:58 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:We are a parliamentary democracy.

That post I made about intelligent people tying themselves in knots? You and elwa are absolutely doing it with this one.
If we are a parliamentary democracy, why haven't we left the EU? Surely parliament should be answerable to the people?

Lancasterclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:02 pm

it will be, when we have the GE.

The failure here (as you well know) is the question on the ballot and attempts by both sides to claim stuff that you can't claim on a simple binary question.

tiger76
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by tiger76 » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:03 pm

dsr wrote:I used to think we were. But in a parliamentary democracy, just as in any other democracy, the people's opinions are paramount; this lot are behaving as if parliament is sovereign and the people's vote comes second.
Ah! but according to some of the parliamentarians(and i do stress only some) we haven't had the people's vote yet,IDK who voted in 2016 then.

dsr
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:06 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:it will be, when we have the GE.

The failure here (as you well know) is the question on the ballot and attempts by both sides to claim stuff that you can't claim on a simple binary question.
We had a general election where Parliament was appointed to organise a referendum; we had a referendum where Parliament was instructed to leave the EU; we had a general election where parliament was instructed to leave the EU.

If you fail O levels, you can be made to resit them till you get the right answer. Is parliamentary democracy like that?

Lancasterclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:11 pm

dsr wrote:We had a general election where Parliament was appointed to organise a referendum; we had a referendum where Parliament was instructed to leave the EU; we had a general election where parliament was instructed to leave the EU.

If you fail O levels, you can be made to resit them till you get the right answer. Is parliamentary democracy like that?
I reckon you should stick to trying to convince everyone that WTO rules are great dsr.

Its a parliamentary democracy.

Lancasterclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:14 pm

End of the day, this needs sorting one way or the other

- GE doesn't sort it, and both Lab and Cons will quite rightly fear one!

- 2nd ref does, but we'll have furious people whichever way it goes.

From my point of view, I'd rather put up with furious people and a functioning economy than furious people, a struggling economy and loads of furious people who realise that leaving the EU doesn't magically make stuff better. Oh, the country I love is much more likely to stay together as well.

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