Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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Greenmile
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:15 am

Paul Waine wrote:Thing is Greenmile, I'm not pretending.

I'm asking all the ones on here to show that they have the knowledge and understanding of economic models....
And folk are asking you to do the same, but you’re coming up with any flimsy excuse you can think of not to. It’s pretty obvious why.

As I say, you’re not fooling anyone.

Paul Waine
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:17 am

Devils_Advocate wrote:Cheers Paul. The second part of my post was a little hyperbolic and whilst I think a lot of Brexit is about the Rich elites chance to get even more richer and powerful taxation would only be a part of that and not a driver as I implied.

The bit Im unsure on and got find a dedicated summary towards it is the the Exit tax which is due to come in Jan 2020. From what Ive read it sounds like the UK had adopted a lot of this but there are some amendments to come in to play.

What I haven't been able to ascertain is what rules have the UK currently got around the Exit tax directive and what will change on 2020. This seems the one that some of the very key players in funding Brexit could be concerned about. If you can shed any light on this Id like to educate myself a bit more.

On reflection the die in the ditch and get an election asap is likely more just a tactic to keep people are their side and win an election than fear of the EU tax laws but I definitely think the narrative move from a great deal to a clean break over the last few years has had some pre thought out strategy from the backers of Brexit who will no doubt benefit hugely whilst a lot of the working class places struggle and fall apart.

Anyhow over to you if you can shed any more light on the Exit tax changes.
Hi DA,

here's link to HMRC on exit tax: https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... it-charges" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I've not read the docs, yet. I'll see if I've time later over the w/end.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:20 am

Paul Waine wrote:If your mother (or father) was an economist it would be surprising if you didn't.

I started studying economics for O-level, 1968, I think. The text books back then could explain how a trade agreement worked between two countries. Lipsey was one of the standard books - all the way from O-level thru to degree. The other one was Samuelson.

Where does your definition of "expert" kick in? BA? MA? PhD? Professor? working professionally in that area?
Sounds like your knowledge is out of date.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:22 am

Greenmile wrote:And folk are asking you to do the same, but you’re coming up with any flimsy excuse you can think of not to. It’s pretty obvious why.

As I say, you’re not fooling anyone.
No excuses flimsy or othwerwise, GM. It's just that I've seen lots making "I know" statements - and in some cases using derogatory statements to others who express different points of view. So, I've decided it's about time all those doing that should demonstrate some real knowledge and understanding of their own - and not just the ability to copy/paste an "expert."

I can do it. Can you? And, if you can't you can just say that - and admit you don't know enough to claim that others who post different views are wrong.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:22 am

atlantalad wrote:Isn't that the crux with what's wrong with today's (UK) society? The majority have no self confidence and seek out "expert" advice and services for all things rather than taking on things / thinking for, themselves ( whether that's fixing a leaking pipe, financial advice, saving advice, repairing car, repairing PC, best TV to buy, etc)

The majority of people today have had the "self sufficiency" and "self determination" knocked out of them and rely on the advice and "expertise" of others for even the simplest of tasks and decisions.

Is there always someone more of an "expert" than thyself?
Oh come on. The human race has turned to specialists since pretty much day one.

Paul Waine
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:23 am

martin_p wrote:Sounds like your knowledge is out of date.
Hi martin, good morning. You are another who is demonstrating their own "no knowledge" by your posts.

Do you want to have a go at producing an economic model?

EDIT: Is a easy place for you to start by explaining your "out of date" statement?
Last edited by Paul Waine on Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

Greenmile
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:24 am

Paul Waine wrote:...I can do it. Can you? And, if you can't you can just say that - and admit you don't know enough to claim that others who post different views are wrong.
I’ve already said I can’t, so we’re just waiting for you to prove you can. I suspect we may be waiting a long time.

In case it’s not clear, Paul, I’m saying you’re lying. I’ll be happy to apologise and retract my accusation if you present the economic models you have created in favour of Brexit. You won’t, though, because they don’t exist.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Paul Waine » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:31 am

Greenmile wrote:I’ve already said I can’t, so we’re just waiting for you to prove you can. I suspect we may be waiting a long time.

In case it’s not clear, Paul, I’m saying you’re lying. I’ll be happy to apologise and retract my accusation if you present the economic models you have created in favour of Brexit. You won’t, though, because they don’t exist.
That's not how it works, GM. You need to do more than say "you're lying."

As I've said before, I'm happy to debate economic models with anyone on here who can create an economic model.

BTW, for accuracy, my statement was that I can build economic models. I don't think I said I'd only created one that is "in favour of Brexit."

Brexit varies the assumptions used in the model, the difference between one modelling state and other modelling states.

Of course, if you understood modelling you'd know that. Are you saying that that isn't something you already know?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by ClaretAndJew » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:34 am

The way evidence works is that if you suggest you can do something you show it.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:36 am

Paul Waine wrote:That's not how it works, GM. You need to do more than say "you're lying."

As I've said before, I'm happy to debate economic models with anyone on here who can create an economic model.

BTW, for accuracy, my statement was that I can build economic models. I don't think I said I'd only created one that is "in favour of Brexit."

Brexit varies the assumptions used in the model, the difference between one modelling state and other modelling states.

Of course, if you understood modelling you'd know that. Are you saying that that isn't something you already know?
Here’s a recap for you.

Jonny said
jontybfc wrote:If you could present an economic model or forecast that predicts the benefits to us for leaving then I’d love to see it. I’m just going off what almost every expert says. I’m yet to read a better deal situation than the one we already have. If you have it, let me know, might change my mind.
...and you replied...
Paul Waine wrote:Hi jonty, I can show you my economic model - but, I would like you to show me your's first. Is that a deal? ;)
He showed you some of the economic models he was going off, and you moved the goalposts to say that you will only discuss with folk who built their own economic model from scratch - an absolutely ludicrous request and clearly an excuse to avoid admitting you have no “economic model or forecast that predicts the benefits to us for leaving”.

The way it works, Paul, is that if you make a claim, it’s up to you to back it up. When you come up with stupid excuses not to do so, I’ve every right to call you a liar.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by SonofPog » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:38 am

This thread is comedy gold right now, you've got one set of Brexiteers claiming you don't seek experts, but rely on old people's common sense.

And another saying that only he has the wisdom to comment, because he's an expert, because he read an economics book 50 years ago.

For us lurkers out there, please keep it up.
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Greenmile
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:39 am

I can prove without doubt that Paul Waine is a Blackburn fan. I’m not going to, though, unless someone can show me their designs for a perpetual motion machine. Otherwise, I’m just going to expect everyone to take my word for the fact that he is, indeed, a horse-botherer.

(You see how stupid this line of argument is?)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:39 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Great. In 2017 Labour surged as everyone loved the Magic Grandpa and the Conservatives were dealt the crippling blow of ...... having a 17 seat majority.

This is your best chance. Johnson is clearly useless and in a GE campaign the extra scrutiny and coverage given to all parties will really affect him.

This is your best (and only) chance.

But at the same time, I can see why its also good politics to let Johnson keep losing everything everytime he tries something. That will hit home with a lot of voters as well.
The problem with your point of veiw is that the public don't blame Boris for losing everytime he tries something, they blame the opposition. His hand is strengthened every Brexit vote he loses, as confirmed by the opinion polls, and the reluctance of the House to call for a GE.
I've said many times I'm not a Boris fan, his only appeal to me being Brexit, but I think the way he has handled himself, and the Tories during all the shenanigans of the past 3 months has been impressive. His tone and rhetoric have been spot on. Hes never lost his head at any of the defeats, just turned them against the opposition. He may well surprise a lot of people going forward. He also has the benefit of going against Corbyn, who couldn't beat Boris's dog.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RMutt » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:40 am

I hope you don’t post about Burnley FC football matters Paul Waine. Unless, of course you are a certified coach with a history of managing professional football teams.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:41 am

Paul Waine wrote:That's not how it works, GM. You need to do more than say "you're lying."

As I've said before, I'm happy to debate economic models with anyone on here who can create an economic model.

BTW, for accuracy, my statement was that I can build economic models. I don't think I said I'd only created one that is "in favour of Brexit."

Brexit varies the assumptions used in the model, the difference between one modelling state and other modelling states.

Of course, if you understood modelling you'd know that. Are you saying that that isn't something you already know?
But why would you expect anyone to pay heed to your economic model just because you have the expertise to create one when you’re saying we shouldn’t pay heed to ones created by other people who have the expertise to create one? You immediately become the thing you’re telling us to ignore!
Last edited by martin_p on Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:42 am

Paul Waine wrote:Hi martin, good morning. You are another who is demonstrating their own "no knowledge" by your posts.

Do you want to have a go at producing an economic model?

EDIT: Is a easy place for you to start by explaining your "out of date" statement?
You need to get yourself a sense of humour.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by randomclaret2 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:44 am

'Oh come on. The human race has turned to specialists since pretty much day one.'
Brilliant...
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:16 am

jontybfc wrote:If you could present an economic model or forecast that predicts the benefits to us for leaving then I’d love to see it. I’m just going off what almost every expert says. I’m yet to read a better deal situation than the one we already have. If you have it, let me know, might change my mind.
The government has an economic model that can give us an idea of the effects of May’s or Johnson’s deal. The government won’t release the figures for Johnson’s deal.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:17 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Very few in their 70s or indeed 80s served in any war, and certainly not in any European war.
To have had any chance at all of serving in WW2 you would have to be well into your 90s now, and the number of surviving servicemen is now very small. Most of those in their 70s are from the generation who have had everything, and in many cases got to retire early with many benefits.
Surveys suggest that those born between 1947 and 1955 have had the best deal.
Probably & maybe used in my post should have indicated I was referring to a small unknown number regarding any military action in 1940-1945.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:25 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:The problem with your point of veiw is that the public don't blame Boris for losing everytime he tries something, they blame the opposition. His hand is strengthened every Brexit vote he loses, as confirmed by the opinion polls, and the reluctance of the House to call for a GE.
I've said many times I'm not a Boris fan, his only appeal to me being Brexit, but I think the way he has handled himself, and the Tories during all the shenanigans of the past 3 months has been impressive. His tone and rhetoric have been spot on. Hes never lost his head at any of the defeats, just turned them against the opposition. He may well surprise a lot of people going forward. He also has the benefit of going against Corbyn, who couldn't beat Boris's dog.
You haven’t seem PMQ!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spijed » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:30 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:The problem with your point of veiw is that the public don't blame Boris for losing everytime he tries something, they blame the opposition. His hand is strengthened every Brexit vote he loses, as confirmed by the opinion polls, and the reluctance of the House to call for a GE.
I've said many times I'm not a Boris fan, his only appeal to me being Brexit, but I think the way he has handled himself, and the Tories during all the shenanigans of the past 3 months has been impressive. His tone and rhetoric have been spot on. Hes never lost his head at any of the defeats, just turned them against the opposition. He may well surprise a lot of people going forward. He also has the benefit of going against Corbyn, who couldn't beat Boris's dog.
If that's the case why are certain parts of the Tory party fearful of the Brexit party and are worried about a pre-deal election, hence many Tory MP's saying it could blow up in their face?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Mala591 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:30 am

The only economic fact is that we won't have to pay a NET £10 billion into the EU every year. Everything else is just a prediction of what might or might not happen.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:31 am

Jakubclaret wrote:Probably & maybe used in my post should have indicated I was referring to a small unknown number regarding any military action in 1940-1945.
In other words, you were referring to a minuscule number of people?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:38 am

AndrewJB wrote:In other words, you were referring to a minuscule number of people?
A small unestimated number but the votes still deserving respect no more no less than anybody else, a vote is a vote.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by dsr » Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:46 am

Spijed wrote:If that's the case why are certain parts of the Tory party fearful of the Brexit party and are worried about a pre-deal election, hence many Tory MP's saying it could blow up in their face?
Because there are no certainties in elections. Worrywarts don't want the risk, confident types want to go for it.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:01 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:A small unestimated number but the votes still deserving respect no more no less than anybody else, a vote is a vote.
People like this man?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... day/15/10/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:05 pm

AndrewJB wrote:People like this man?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... day/15/10/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
No, he means those over 100, obviously!!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:07 pm

AndrewJB wrote:People like this man?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... day/15/10/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Not everybody will think the same, the paras & the infantry ect, all had different roles within the war & experienced conflict on different scales, the 1s in the trenches are likely to have different views to the 1s in the sky literally as well as emotionally.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:14 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Not everybody will think the same, the paras & the infantry ect, all had different roles within the war & experienced conflict on different scales, the 1s in the trenches are likely to have different views to the 1s in the sky literally as well as emotionally.
Why?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:17 pm

martin_p wrote:Why?
Stands to reason & applies everywhere.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:24 pm

atlantalad wrote:Isn't that the crux with what's wrong with today's (UK) society? The majority have no self confidence and seek out "expert" advice and services for all things rather than taking on things / thinking for, themselves ( whether that's fixing a leaking pipe, financial advice, saving advice, repairing car, repairing PC, best TV to buy, etc)

The majority of people today have had the "self sufficiency" and "self determination" knocked out of them and rely on the advice and "expertise" of others for even the simplest of tasks and decisions.

Is there always someone more of an "expert" than thyself?
Always!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:26 pm

SonofPog wrote:This thread is comedy gold right now, you've got one set of Brexiteers claiming you don't seek experts, but rely on old people's common sense.

And another saying that only he has the wisdom to comment, because he's an expert, because he read an economics book 50 years ago.

For us lurkers out there, please keep it up.
You can imagine why some of us think that listening to those sorts of people might not be the wisest course of action.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:29 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Not everybody will think the same, the paras & the infantry ect, all had different roles within the war & experienced conflict on different scales, the 1s in the trenches are likely to have different views to the 1s in the sky literally as well as emotionally.
Words fail me.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:35 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:You can imagine why some of us think that listening to those sorts of people might not be the wisest course of action.
Far better to listen to people like you, Lancasterclaret , your eminence!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:35 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Stands to reason & applies everywhere.
So will pilots have different views on Europe to bus drivers?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:37 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Far better to listen to people like you, Lancasterclaret , your eminence!
Aw Ringo, that is so nice

But no, listen to the people who know what they are talking about and who are warning you about the risks involved rather than pretending that they are no risks and all we need is confidence and a bit of old fashioned common sense.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:38 pm

Atlantalad wrote: Is there always someone more of an "expert" than thyself?
Lancasterclaret wrote:Always!
Come on Lancasterclaret your being uncharacteristically bashful!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by TVC15 » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:38 pm

Paul Waine wrote:That's not how it works, GM. You need to do more than say "you're lying."

As I've said before, I'm happy to debate economic models with anyone on here who can create an economic model.

BTW, for accuracy, my statement was that I can build economic models. I don't think I said I'd only created one that is "in favour of Brexit."

Brexit varies the assumptions used in the model, the difference between one modelling state and other modelling states.

Of course, if you understood modelling you'd know that. Are you saying that that isn't something you already know?
How embarrassing
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:41 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Come on Lancasterclaret your being uncharacteristically bashful!
I'm disappointed that no one has come up with a comedy version of my name yet Ringo!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Aw Ringo, that is so nice

But no, listen to the people who know what they are talking about and who are warning you about the risks involved rather than pretending that they are no risks and all we need is confidence and a bit of old fashioned common sense.
Given the party you plan to vote for said they be prepared to tear up Article 50 and stop Brexit without a referendum. How would you feel if a new government, with a manifesto to do so, took us out of the European union without a referendum?

A genuine politely asked question , with an answer from your self, yet to see the light day?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:43 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I'm disappointed that no one has come up with a comedy version of my name yet Ringo!
I'd take a comedy answer to my repeatedly asked question. At least its be answer . Swerve Meister!

:lol:

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:43 pm

Interesting news from the EU

26-1 to favour of at least a three month extension. The dissenting country being France.

Ringo, we have been here before.

The answer you seek is dropping further and further down this thread.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:44 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Not everybody will think the same, the paras & the infantry ect, all had different roles within the war & experienced conflict on different scales, the 1s in the trenches are likely to have different views to the 1s in the sky literally as well as emotionally.
So you mean not just people who fought, but a proportion of those who fought?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:44 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:I'd take a comedy answer to my repeatedly asked question. At least its be answer . Swerve Meister!

:lol:
Wankcasterclaret?

ThatblokewhoisrightmoreoftenthanIam?

Shitthatladknowshisstuff?

I quite like the first one!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Colburn_Claret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:51 pm

AndrewJB wrote:You haven’t seem PMQ!
Only the edited highlights admittedly.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Spijed » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:02 pm

Boris is still making the claim that Parliament has approved the Withdrawal agreement.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lancasterclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:03 pm

Spijed wrote:Boris is still making the claim that Parliament has approved the Withdrawal agreement.
If you want to believe that, you will

If you know its all his fault, then you know its all his fault.

Only an election/referendum will decide whether people are believing him or not.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by NottsClaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:06 pm

BennyD wrote:Now we’ve got a go-getter at the helm, this Brexit sh!t will be done, dusted and ticked off. Then we can get this very tedious thread closed. Happy days.
Love this, from the day Johnson got the PM job.

Anyway, how are we all celebrating Brexit Day on Thursday?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:08 pm

AndrewJB wrote:So you mean not just people who fought, but a proportion of those who fought?
Let me clarify I shouldn't need to but I will, every single serviceman/woman dead or alive will probably have they own individual stories/accounts of the wartime era, some will be the same, some will be similar, some will be vastly apart, please don't ask anymore silly questions as I won't be answering them. I don't wish to be harsh & I don't like to ignore.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Wankcasterclaret?

ThatblokewhoisrightmoreoftenthanIam?

Shitthatladknowshisstuff?

I quite like the first one!
Thatblokewhoboastedhehadtheunfortunatehabitof
beingrightmostofthetime, would be a far more accurate and fact based suggestion.

Anyway, rather than making up ego massaging names for yourself. How about you answer my question-

Given the party you plan to vote for said they be prepared to tear up Article 50 and stop Brexit without a referendum. How would you feel if a new government, with a manifesto to do so, took us out of the European union without a referendum?

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