Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Elizabeth]

If the pact between the two parties happens it will be the end for the extremists, the so called People's Vote and the hard line brexiteers.

I hope so because both of those sides of the argument deserve nothing

My penultimate post I hope. I have a big jigsaw to finish and always enjoy sharing my joy when the last piece is in place

[nil_desperandum]

If the pact between the two parties happens it will be the end for the extremists, the so called People's Vote and the hard line brexiteers.

You must be joking. If May and Corbyn do agree a compromise that results in us being in a Customs Union, then the likes of Bill Cash, Redwood, Jenkin and the runt of the litter Mark Francois will be close to spontaneous combustion.

[South West Claret.]

Business confidence has crashed to the lowest point since 2012, and the economy is only growing because firms are stockpiling ahead of Brexit, according to a key sentiment indicator. The BDO optimism index, which charts how businesses expect output to develop in the next three to six months, fell faster in March that at any time since the bleakest days in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.

[JohnMcGreal]

A brutally honest piece by Brexiter Peter Oborne, who now thinks we should halt the Brexit process to have a very serious think about things:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opende ... ink-again/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[CrosspoolClarets]

Whilst you will appreciate I did copy and paste that.

I did look into the Land Rover Deal and they got €125 million from the Slovak gov.

Now as we pay about 9 billion a year in and the Slovak gov get 1 billion, I suggest we have paid them to take away uk jobs.

Surely we could hold back 1/2 billion and give that to Landrover to keep jobs here.

But no the EU will not allow that.

Good observation. I get amazed at how financially literate professional people cannot see how the way the EU works is sucking wealth out of our country, stagnating the economy and indirectly contributing to the austerity and flat wages we have had. The main issue being, this trend is accelerating, so what does it mean for us when the next slowdown comes? Liberals seem to think that this is fair, that because these nations are poorer than us we are fair game. There has to be a limit.

The money flows out in at least 3 ways that I can see:

1. Our EU subscriptions go in part to developing nations, to further develop (roads, rail, air etc) and be more competitive (thus threatening us further)
2. The 4 freedoms mean business finds it easier to leave the U.K. to go to where production is cheaper (Land Rover to Slovak a good example)
3. EU workers come here without massively boosting our GDP per capita, then send much of the money home, making use of the freedom of movement of both people and capital, thus GDP is up, but wealth to reinvest in the U.K. is down.

It’s a perfect storm, a gravy train from west to east. A disaster for our working class, many of whom can “feel” it even if they can’t articulate it. It will take time for the folk in cosy public sector or service jobs to realise this, because they are one more step removed from being directly affected, but they are affected and will realise it in good time.

Leaving will shake it up, and lead to a fairer EU and better functioning EU in the future, one we may choose to rejoin and help lead.

[dsr]

Business confidence has crashed to the lowest point since 2012, and the economy is only growing because firms are stockpiling ahead of Brexit, according to a key sentiment indicator. The BDO optimism index, which charts how businesses expect output to develop in the next three to six months, fell faster in March that at any time since the bleakest days in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.

Is that because businesses have only just noticed that Brexit was planned for March? Or is it because they aren't happy with the shambles that the anti-Brexiteers are hoping will continue?

[AndrewJB]

Is that because businesses have only just noticed that Brexit was planned for March? Or is it because they aren't happy with the shambles that the anti-Brexiteers are hoping will continue?

It takes a brass neck as someone who has advocated what you call a 'clean break' - which everyone agrees will adversely hit the UK economy - to claim that people who voted remain are hoping for things to be a shambles.

[AndrewJB]

Good observation. I get amazed at how financially literate professional people cannot see how the way the EU works is sucking wealth out of our country, stagnating the economy and indirectly contributing to the austerity and flat wages we have had. The main issue being, this trend is accelerating, so what does it mean for us when the next slowdown comes? Liberals seem to think that this is fair, that because these nations are poorer than us we are fair game. There has to be a limit.

The money flows out in at least 3 ways that I can see:

1. Our EU subscriptions go in part to developing nations, to further develop (roads, rail, air etc) and be more competitive (thus threatening us further)
2. The 4 freedoms mean business finds it easier to leave the U.K. to go to where production is cheaper (Land Rover to Slovak a good example)
3. EU workers come here without massively boosting our GDP per capita, then send much of the money home, making use of the freedom of movement of both people and capital, thus GDP is up, but wealth to reinvest in the U.K. is down.

It’s a perfect storm, a gravy train from west to east. A disaster for our working class, many of whom can “feel” it even if they can’t articulate it. It will take time for the folk in cosy public sector or service jobs to realise this, because they are one more step removed from being directly affected, but they are affected and will realise it in good time.

Leaving will shake it up, and lead to a fairer EU and better functioning EU in the future, one we may choose to rejoin and help lead.

Britain made it easy for businesses to leave, by having the most deregulated business environment the last few governments have been able to get away with. German companies don't move to Slovakia, because they have worker representatives on the board. If we leave the EU, and instead trade under a free trade agreement, what is going to stop companies continuing to move to take advantage of lower wages? We've always had the ability to tie companies down through regulation (put an elected member of the local community on the board as well, to represent local interests), but we've chosen not to do it, because our national governments have taken the side of big business against ordinary people.

And leaving won't stop EU workers coming here (unless we want to pay a lot more for our fruit and veg), and nor are they a drain on the economy. They don't go back to Poland to eat and sleep. Even the thriftiest are probably spending two thirds of what they earn on living expenses, as well as paying tax.

The real disaster for our working class has been austerity.

[dsr]

It takes a brass neck as someone who has advocated what you call a 'clean break' - which everyone agrees will adversely hit the UK economy - to claim that people who voted remain are hoping for things to be a shambles.

Haven't you noticed? Things are already a shambles. People who want a short-term extension (and a year is short term) are wanting the shambles to continue. (Maybe they hope that if nothing changes the shambles will go away; but that's hardly likely.)

Just as "No Deal" Brexiters don't particularly want to leave with no deal, but they think it's the best of all available options; so surely do "short extension" supporters not really want a shambles, but think that the current shambles is better than all other options. The subset of people that want an extension and want harmony is no doubt large, but the subset of people who want an extension and expect harmony is not.

[RingoMcCartney]

Britain made it easy for businesses to leave, by having the most deregulated business environment the last few governments have been able to get away with. German companies don't move to Slovakia, because they have worker representatives on the board. If we leave the EU, and instead trade under a free trade agreement, what is going to stop companies continuing to move to take advantage of lower wages? We've always had the ability to tie companies down through regulation (put an elected member of the local community on the board as well, to represent local interests), but we've chosen not to do it, because our national governments have taken the side of big business against ordinary people.

And leaving won't stop EU workers coming here (unless we want to pay a lot more for our fruit and veg), and nor are they a drain on the economy. They don't go back to Poland to eat and sleep. Even the thriftiest are probably spending two thirds of what they earn on living expenses, as well as paying tax.

The real disaster for our working class has been austerity.

The real disaster for our working class has been losing well paid jobs

In the past 30 years, the UK's manufacturing sector has shrunk by two-thirds, the greatest de-industrialisation of any major nation. It was done in the name of economic modernisation 

ALL WHILE WE'VE BEEN TRAPPED IN THE EU.

As for "German companies not moving" to cheaper EU countries.

THE FIRST MERCEDES-BENZ A-CLASS MADE IN HUNGARY IS COMPLETE

Published: 15 May 2018


A few weeks after production began in the Rastatt plant the Mercedes-Benz Plant in Kecskemét also launched the production of the new A-Class. This is the first factory outside Germany where the production of this innovative vehicle was started. With the new model in addition to the CLA and CLA Shooting Brake the plant in Hungary proudly continues to have a very attractive production profile.

For the production of the new compact car generation a new body shop equipped with state-of-the-art technology on a ground surface of 99,000 square meter was built on the site of the plant in Kecskemét. With the implementation several new developments were carried out in the existing plant as well, for instance, new robots were put in operation in the paint shop. Thanks to the new investments the production of the new generation of compact cars will be even more flexible and effective. The Hungarian plant is the second worldwide production facility where the new compact model is manufactured, which contributes to a strengthening role of Kecskemét within the global production network of Mercedes-Benz Cars.

[Jakubclaret]

It's a myth that we actually need so much mass immigration in order for our economy to be sustainable, the infrastructure cannot support it & it will only lead to increases in welfare, the migrant workers do contribute to the economy by living & working here & spending the money on essentials anything in excess more often than not sees it's way out of this country, i also don't support the idea that all paying tax as it's common knowledge lot's are avoiding this with cash in hand work especially 1 particular group in 1 particular seedy sector, you could stop the austerity overnight by reducing immigration, austerity & immigration go hand in hand with depressed wages & a lack of employment for some people because of this, austerity & immigration are explicitly linked & it's denial in refusing to see the obvious correlation.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Lengthy reply warning .I sense this will be one of those replies when I tend to agree that Corbynomics has some mass appeal and will probably lead to Jezza (or a version of him) in No 10

Britain made it easy for businesses to leave, by having the most deregulated business environment the last few governments have been able to get away with. German companies don't move to Slovakia, because they have worker representatives on the board.

Agreed. Free trade is by definition free trade. I am not totally against protectionism, which is regional and not just national (e.g. having import tariffs on food disincentivises wealthy urban consumers from buying from overseas, protecting Lincolnshire farming communities).

But....the trend is for manufacturing to shift closer to the consumer, even in Germany. Basing the next half century's trade policy on our manufacturing exports seems like folly because the horse will bolt anyway (like Dyson). This from BMW...."While the “Made in Germany” cachet remains critical to BMW, the focus is shifting more to engineering and design in its home market, with manufacturing carried out elsewhere to reduce import tariffs and currency risks, Milagros Caina-Andree, the carmaker’s head of human resources, said in April. “We are now an international company with Bavarian roots and many sites abroad where we build vehicles at the same high quality level as in Germany,” she said."

If we leave the EU, and instead trade under a free trade agreement, what is going to stop companies continuing to move to take advantage of lower wages? We've always had the ability to tie companies down through regulation (put an elected member of the local community on the board as well, to represent local interests), but we've chosen not to do it, because our national governments have taken the side of big business against ordinary people.

Agree with this too. But I don't think high regulation free trade is impossible. We can still insist on a certain standard of product and worker's rights, but the difficulty comes when we can't insist on this for cheap imports (e.g. how much control do we have on how palm oil is made, and how do we ban certain imports).

And leaving won't stop EU workers coming here (unless we want to pay a lot more for our fruit and veg), and nor are they a drain on the economy. They don't go back to Poland to eat and sleep. Even the thriftiest are probably spending two thirds of what they earn on living expenses, as well as paying tax.

Nor should it stop them, but it would be better controlled. The one disagreement I have is that it is proven that EU workers under a certain amount of wage are a drain on the economy. That was in the Migration Advisory Committee report, a section of the Oxford Economics element I quote here....."We conducted a specimen analysis to illustrate that different types of migrant households have very different “break-even” points. The net contribution made by a migrant adult individual in 2016/17 depended heavily on the stage of life they were at. To illustrate this point, we conducted a specimen analysis for four different types of households, in each case establishing the annual household gross income required to make a positive net fiscal contribution (see Fig. 2). A household income of just over £10,000 per year is sufficient for a single childless person in early adulthood (HH1) to “break even”, as they tend to require less government support and use of public services. Around £45,000 per year is required for a working couple with two dependent children (HH2), largely due to the education and healthcare costs associated with children. This falls to about £25,000 per year for an older couple with financially independent children (HH3), then rises again to over £90,000 for a household consisting of two retirees (HH4), primarily due to rising healthcare and state pension costs."

It has also been proven that (I think) the bottom 15% of migrant wage earners have depressed the UK equivalent wage over the last couple of decades. That was somewhere in the same set of reports.

The real disaster for our working class has been austerity.

Again, agreed. But austerity is a symptom not a cause. Osborne and Hammond took it way too far, toxifying the Tories again, but it started due to the bankers and not helped by failed EU economic policy in the way I describe.

[AndrewJB]

The real disaster for our working class has been losing well paid jobs

In the past 30 years, the UK's manufacturing sector has shrunk by two-thirds, the greatest de-industrialisation of any major nation. It was done in the name of economic modernisation 

ALL WHILE WE'VE BEEN TRAPPED IN THE EU.

As for "German companies not moving" to cheaper EU countries.

THE FIRST MERCEDES-BENZ A-CLASS MADE IN HUNGARY IS COMPLETE

Published: 15 May 2018


A few weeks after production began in the Rastatt plant the Mercedes-Benz Plant in Kecskemét also launched the production of the new A-Class. This is the first factory outside Germany where the production of this innovative vehicle was started. With the new model in addition to the CLA and CLA Shooting Brake the plant in Hungary proudly continues to have a very attractive production profile.

For the production of the new compact car generation a new body shop equipped with state-of-the-art technology on a ground surface of 99,000 square meter was built on the site of the plant in Kecskemét. With the implementation several new developments were carried out in the existing plant as well, for instance, new robots were put in operation in the paint shop. Thanks to the new investments the production of the new generation of compact cars will be even more flexible and effective. The Hungarian plant is the second worldwide production facility where the new compact model is manufactured, which contributes to a strengthening role of Kecskemét within the global production network of Mercedes-Benz Cars.

The de-industrialisation of this country, and the loss of well paying jobs is the result of decisions made by our national government. What's worse is the government has no strategy for bolstering this side of the economy. Austerity stripped the country of tens of thousands of well paying jobs, and that was once again down to our government.

Your article didn't mention which German factory was being shut down in order to move the production to Hungary. It still remains the German government proactively intervenes in their economy to maintain a strong industrial base. We don't. And that's the problem.

[AndrewJB]

Haven't you noticed? Things are already a shambles. People who want a short-term extension (and a year is short term) are wanting the shambles to continue. (Maybe they hope that if nothing changes the shambles will go away; but that's hardly likely.)

Just as "No Deal" Brexiters don't particularly want to leave with no deal, but they think it's the best of all available options; so surely do "short extension" supporters not really want a shambles, but think that the current shambles is better than all other options. The subset of people that want an extension and want harmony is no doubt large, but the subset of people who want an extension and expect harmony is not.

Agreed - things are already a shambles, and so I'd like it not to get worse.

I don't think anything has been achieved in the last three years, and as we sit here now the only thing I can conclude is the country as a whole doesn't have a clue as to what it wants.

A sensible withdrawal, without spending several years travelling the country and finding out what people want, would have been the softest possible brexit to begin with. This could have been followed by "taking back more control" in the next few years, but doing it in a cautious and pragmatic way. Such a withdrawal agreement would have been much easier to negotiate with the EU, and more time could have been set aside to ensure it went smoothly.

Alternatively the government could have consulted, and studied, and then chosen between a series of leave options (at least having an indication as to what the outcomes were likely to be both to the country, and within parliament).

Where we are now though just feels like the last three years have been wasted, and we're no further along than we were just after the referendum. I can understand how this might be more frustrating for leave voters than remain (though not a lot more), but I don't blame parliament. Parliament has only been involved for the last few months. The PM pointedly refused to give a "running commentary" of how talks were going, and perhaps if parliament had compelled her to provide some sort of feedback she would have ensured things moved at pace.

[RingoMcCartney]

The de-industrialisation of this country, and the loss of well paying jobs is the result of decisions made by our national government. What's worse is the government has no strategy for bolstering this side of the economy. Austerity stripped the country of tens of thousands of well paying jobs, and that was once again down to our government.

Your article didn't mention which German factory was being shut down in order to move the production to Hungary. It still remains the German government proactively intervenes in their economy to maintain a strong industrial base. We don't. And that's the problem.

You said, "German companies don't move to Slovakia, because they have worker representatives on the board. "

Did those worker representatives stop the Hungarian plant being set up?

Yes or no?

[AndrewJB]

Lengthy reply warning .I sense this will be one of those replies when I tend to agree that Corbynomics has some mass appeal and will probably lead to Jezza (or a version of him) in No 10



Agreed. Free trade is by definition free trade. I am not totally against protectionism, which is regional and not just national (e.g. having import tariffs on food disincentivises wealthy urban consumers from buying from overseas, protecting Lincolnshire farming communities).

But....the trend is for manufacturing to shift closer to the consumer, even in Germany. Basing the next half century's trade policy on our manufacturing exports seems like folly because the horse will bolt anyway (like Dyson). This from BMW...."While the “Made in Germany” cachet remains critical to BMW, the focus is shifting more to engineering and design in its home market, with manufacturing carried out elsewhere to reduce import tariffs and currency risks, Milagros Caina-Andree, the carmaker’s head of human resources, said in April. “We are now an international company with Bavarian roots and many sites abroad where we build vehicles at the same high quality level as in Germany,” she said."



Agree with this too. But I don't think high regulation free trade is impossible. We can still insist on a certain standard of product and worker's rights, but the difficulty comes when we can't insist on this for cheap imports (e.g. how much control do we have on how palm oil is made, and how do we ban certain imports).



Nor should it stop them, but it would be better controlled. The one disagreement I have is that it is proven that EU workers under a certain amount of wage are a drain on the economy. That was in the Migration Advisory Committee report, a section of the Oxford Economics element I quote here....."We conducted a specimen analysis to illustrate that different types of migrant households have very different “break-even” points. The net contribution made by a migrant adult individual in 2016/17 depended heavily on the stage of life they were at. To illustrate this point, we conducted a specimen analysis for four different types of households, in each case establishing the annual household gross income required to make a positive net fiscal contribution (see Fig. 2). A household income of just over £10,000 per year is sufficient for a single childless person in early adulthood (HH1) to “break even”, as they tend to require less government support and use of public services. Around £45,000 per year is required for a working couple with two dependent children (HH2), largely due to the education and healthcare costs associated with children. This falls to about £25,000 per year for an older couple with financially independent children (HH3), then rises again to over £90,000 for a household consisting of two retirees (HH4), primarily due to rising healthcare and state pension costs."

It has also been proven that (I think) the bottom 15% of migrant wage earners have depressed the UK equivalent wage over the last couple of decades. That was somewhere in the same set of reports.



Again, agreed. But austerity is a symptom not a cause. Osborne and Hammond took it way too far, toxifying the Tories again, but it started due to the bankers and not helped by failed EU economic policy in the way I describe.

I'm not against free trade, or against globalisation as such, but I think there is a sensible area in everything in which the benefits outweigh the costs. Given the issues around climate change, I can see things like power and food being produced more locally in the future. And I envisage a tariff system that might penalise a product's mileage to market.

With the figures on EU citizens bringing their children here, I'd say those people are less likely to be sending money back home. The ones I've met (and this is going back over twenty years when I worked as an English language teacher) who come to earn money to take back don't tend to establish strong ties here (so won't bring their families).

Considering the financial circumstances we found ourselves in as a result of the banking crash, some form of belt tightening had to take place, however what Osborne and Cameron did seemed more in line with their ideology of a small state. Cuts to youth centres, for example, saved such a small sum, and yet (possibly more so than cuts to police numbers) many youth workers attribute these cuts to the rise in knife crime - which as a problem will eat up many more pounds than anything saved originally.

We were told that austerity was required in order to bring down our deficit (and reduce our debt), yet much of the savings then went out in tax breaks. These tax breaks were designed to increase investment into our economy - thereby saying that money invested into our economy was worth more than that money spent to bring down our debt. Now when you consider that the government couldn't guarantee that money handed out in tax breaks would be invested into our economy (rather than being moved offshore), then it's reasonable to question why the government could not just have invested the money itself into our economy and kept taxes at their previous levels? The argument could go round and round, but the picture we're left with - a government imposing strict austerity on the people, while reducing the tax burden of the riches - still hangs around their necks.

[South West Claret.]

Tory Johnson at it yet again

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/b ... li=BBoPRmx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think we should bring back hanging it's said says Teresa May or Maybe

[RingoMcCartney]

The de-industrialisation of this country, and the loss of well paying jobs is the result of decisions made by our national government. What's worse is the government has no strategy for bolstering this side of the economy. Austerity stripped the country of tens of thousands of well paying jobs, and that was once again down to our government.

Your article didn't mention which German factory was being shut down in order to move the production to Hungary. It still remains the German government proactively intervenes in their economy to maintain a strong industrial base. We don't. And that's the problem.

The EU grand federalist plan for Europe was for Germany to do manufacturing. France to do farming and agriculture and the uk to do finance.

The problem was finance is all centred in London and the south east. And London and the south east has done well while in the eu. The rest of the country has been forgotten.

While in the eu we've had all shades of government, even a coalition. Every one has, thanks to the various treaties we've signed( without promised referendums) got us more entangled with the EU.

The referendum result saw London voting for Remain and that's where the rump of the people who want the status quo and their entitlement and privilege to be maintained, live and where the media, establishment and political class exist.

Last week's you gov poll shows outside the London bubble, the majority of people want a No deal Brexit. In London they want to reverse the referendum result.

The referendum gave the ignored , forgotten and the previously voiceless, a chance to be listened to.

If the dwellers of the metropolitan London Borough of ivory towers do actually overturn and subvert the biggest single expression of democracy the nation has ever witnessed. They may well come to regret it.

[Spijed]

The EU grand federalist plan for Europe was for Germany to do manufacturing. France to do farming and agriculture and the uk to do finance.

The problem was finance is all centred in London and the south east. And London and the south east has done well while in the eu. The rest of the country has been forgotten.

While in the eu we've had all shades of government, even a coalition. Every one has, thanks to the various treaties we've signed( without promised referendums) got us more entangled with the EU.

The referendum result saw London voting for Remain and that's where the rump of the people who want the status quo and their entitlement and privilege to be maintained.

Last week's you gov poll shows outside the London bubble, the majority of people want a No deal Brexit. In London they want to reverse the referendum result.

The referendum gave the ignored , forgotten and the previously voiceless, a chance to be listened to.

If the dwellers of the metropolitan London Borough of ivory towers do actually overturn and subvert the biggest single expression of democracy the nation has ever witnessed. They may well come to regret it.

Only in England. In Scotland they want to remain in the EU by a huge margin.

[RingoMcCartney]

Only in England. In Scotland they want to remain in the EU by a huge margin.

I should have specified England, to be fare. I assumed anybody who knows about the subject would have known it was referring to England only

You forgot Wales. Big leave majority.

Scotland voted to remain in the UK.

The referendum was a UK wide vote.

[aggi]

I'd forgotten about Ringo's grand EU plan. Last time round you never really explained what was in it for the UK or why you'd ignored the other 25 countries.

[RingoMcCartney]

I'd forgotten about Ringo's grand EU plan. Last time round you never really explained what was in it for the UK or why you'd ignored the other 25 countries.

You clearly don't agree. That's fine.

In the past 30 years, the UK's manufacturing sector has shrunk by two-thirds, the greatest de-industrialisation of any major nation. It was done in the name of economic modernisation 

Heath and Wilson got things going, thatcher turbo charged it and Brown and Bliar boasted of a "post industrial Britain!"

Nuff said.

[Lowbankclaret]

Britain made it easy for businesses to leave, by having the most deregulated business environment the last few governments have been able to get away with. German companies don't move to Slovakia, because they have worker representatives on the board. If we leave the EU, and instead trade under a free trade agreement, what is going to stop companies continuing to move to take advantage of lower wages? We've always had the ability to tie companies down through regulation (put an elected member of the local community on the board as well, to represent local interests), but we've chosen not to do it, because our national governments have taken the side of big business against ordinary people.

And leaving won't stop EU workers coming here (unless we want to pay a lot more for our fruit and veg), and nor are they a drain on the economy. They don't go back to Poland to eat and sleep. Even the thriftiest are probably spending two thirds of what they earn on living expenses, as well as paying tax.

The real disaster for our working class has been austerity.

EU workers once here can and do claim benefits from our welfare state, as I understand it a polish guy working here can claim child support at UK rates even if his wife and children are living in Poland. I did see a graphical illustration of the amount of money going out of the UK by these means.

I also read that in an attempt to stop the drain on Poland it was going make its child support equal to the UK’s. I don’t know if they did that, but due to the far larger amount of Polish workers in the UK compared to UK nationals working in Poland there is a large cash plus going to Poland in welfare payments.

So I would argue they are a drain on our resources.

But please don’t take that me saying they should sent home . But claiming our welfare money I think should be limited but again it’s EU law.

[AndrewJB]

You said, "German companies don't move to Slovakia, because they have worker representatives on the board. "

Did those worker representatives stop the Hungarian plant being set up?

Yes or no?

It's clearly more nuanced than that, but Germans having worker representation on boards is one of a number of ways they've kept manufacturing in Germany to a far greater degree than we have. Italy, France, and Sweden also have positive industrial policies. If you want to understand where ours has gone, you need look no further than the fact we've just left it all to the free market.

[AndrewJB]

EU workers once here can and do claim benefits from our welfare state, as I understand it a polish guy working here can claim child support at UK rates even if his wife and children are living in Poland. I did see a graphical illustration of the amount of money going out of the UK by these means.

I also read that in an attempt to stop the drain on Poland it was going make its child support equal to the UK’s. I don’t know if they did that, but due to the far larger amount of Polish workers in the UK compared to UK nationals working in Poland there is a large cash plus going to Poland in welfare payments.

So I would argue they are a drain on our resources.

But please don’t take that me saying they should sent home . But claiming our welfare money I think should be limited but again it’s EU law.

Ability to claim welfare by EU citizens is limited (they can't just show up and go on welfare) but the UK government didn't bother enforcing this.

If people come over and work, then I don't see why they shouldn't be entitled to the same benefits as EU citizens.

When you contrast the difference in family allowance payments, you're not really taking in the whole picture. The cost of school, healthcare, and training is taken up by country of origin - and is far greater than what is paid out in family allowance, because it applies to everyone who comes here rather than just those with dependent children. And as the number of Poles coming here far exceeds the number of Brits going there, I'd say we're easily quids in.

[AndrewJB]

You clearly don't agree. That's fine.

In the past 30 years, the UK's manufacturing sector has shrunk by two-thirds, the greatest de-industrialisation of any major nation. It was done in the name of economic modernisation 

Heath and Wilson got things going, thatcher turbo charged it and Brown and Bliar boasted of a "post industrial Britain!"

Nuff said.

This decline in manufacturing and wages is due to the policies of the national government.

[aggi]

You clearly don't agree. That's fine.

In the past 30 years, the UK's manufacturing sector has shrunk by two-thirds, the greatest de-industrialisation of any major nation. It was done in the name of economic modernisation 

Heath and Wilson got things going, thatcher turbo charged it and Brown and Bliar boasted of a "post industrial Britain!"

Nuff said.

I'm not sure what all this has to do with the EU though.

Plus, Germany isn't doing that well at being the manufacturing centre of Europe, 70% of their economy is service based (only 10% lower than the UK).

There are huge issues around manufacturing jobs, low wages, globalisation and automation but to think that leaving the EU will stop the world moving on is somewhat optimistic.

Look at the decline in manufacturing jobs in the US over the past 40 years, did the EU cause those too?

Capture.JPG (69.54 KiB) Viewed 1763 times

[quoonbeatz]

Last week's you gov poll shows outside the London bubble, the majority of people want a No deal Brexit.

it didn't show that at all. there was no majority for no deal or remain in any part of the uk.

the highest percentage no deal got was 46 in the midlands/wales.

from the yougov article about the overall picture:

"Only 25% of people would consider a No Deal Brexit to be a positive outcome. Twice as many (50%) would see it as a negative, and 37% as a "very bad" outcome. Even among Leave voters, only half see a No Deal conclusion as positive."

"Only 26% select No Deal when asked which outcome they would prefer. Less popular, at 11%, is the government's deal, while 12% would prefer a deal including a customs union and the single market. Just over a third (37%) would prefer a second referendum, ending with the UK remaining in the EU."

the majority of people in the uk, which is what counts, don't want no deal.

anyway, that's enough brexit mythbusting, i'm off back into exile.

[HatfieldClaret]

For how it's all going to pan out, you might as well go to the Line of Duty thread.....

[aggi]

Whilst you will appreciate I did copy and paste that.

I did look into the Land Rover Deal and they got €125 million from the Slovak gov.

Now as we pay about 9 billion a year in and the Slovak gov get 1 billion, I suggest we have paid them to take away uk jobs.

Surely we could hold back 1/2 billion and give that to Landrover to keep jobs here.

But no the EU will not allow that.

Not really, copy/pasting something isn't an excuse for it not being true. Particularly when you're subsequently suggesting that young people aren't as qualified to make decisions about EU membership.

You're now saying it wasn't an EU grant? It was two countries making independent spending decisions? You were just posting made up stuff. (Also setting aside that JLR's other favoured location was Mexico.)

As for the figures, they don't really mean anything out of context.

[RingoMcCartney]

I'm not sure what all this has to do with the EU though.
]

During the last 30 years, while manufacturing has shrunk by 2/3rds and millions of quality jobs have gone. The country has had governments of all hues.

The one constant through out, has been membership of the European Union.

You'll say it's absolutely nothing with the EU.

Fine.

[Imploding Turtle]

During the last 30 years, while manufacturing has shrunk by 2/3rds and millions of quality jobs have gone. The country has had governments of all hues.

The one constant through out, has been membership of the European Union.

You'll say it's absolutely nothing with the EU.

Fine.

Manufacturing hasn't shrunk by two-thirds. Manufacturing jobs are what has decreased. But you keep pretending automation isn't a thing. See how that works out for you and your dumb arguments.

I'm pretty sure you or your source has just completely made up the "2/3rds" figure though. By all means share where you're getting that information... unless you're too.

Meanwhile, i'll share this that destroys your bullshit argument whether you post a source or not.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/new ... -show.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We all know you don't bother to read beyond the headline, so i'll paste it here for you: "How UK manufacturing output has increased since the 1970s despite 60% fewer workers"

So, if your argument is that being in the EU has had a negative impact on manufacturing, and therefore we should leave, then i suppose this news that you're completely wrong and that manufacturing has soared while we've been in the EU will have you changing your mind. Won't it? Nah, i didn't think so either.

[Imploding Turtle]

Ringo, is this how you calculated the 2/3rds figure?

"The Office for National Statistics found that even though just eight per cent of UK jobs are in manufacturing, compared to 25 per cent in 1978, overall manufacturing output has actually increased."

Did you or your dumb source seriously just take 25% of our economy becoming 8% of our economy over the last 40 years and just absolutely butcher basic mathematics?

[CrosspoolClarets]

I'm not against free trade, or against globalisation as such, but I think there is a sensible area in everything in which the benefits outweigh the costs. Given the issues around climate change, I can see things like power and food being produced more locally in the future. And I envisage a tariff system that might penalise a product's mileage to market.

With the figures on EU citizens bringing their children here, I'd say those people are less likely to be sending money back home. The ones I've met (and this is going back over twenty years when I worked as an English language teacher) who come to earn money to take back don't tend to establish strong ties here (so won't bring their families).

Considering the financial circumstances we found ourselves in as a result of the banking crash, some form of belt tightening had to take place, however what Osborne and Cameron did seemed more in line with their ideology of a small state. Cuts to youth centres, for example, saved such a small sum, and yet (possibly more so than cuts to police numbers) many youth workers attribute these cuts to the rise in knife crime - which as a problem will eat up many more pounds than anything saved originally.

We were told that austerity was required in order to bring down our deficit (and reduce our debt), yet much of the savings then went out in tax breaks. These tax breaks were designed to increase investment into our economy - thereby saying that money invested into our economy was worth more than that money spent to bring down our debt. Now when you consider that the government couldn't guarantee that money handed out in tax breaks would be invested into our economy (rather than being moved offshore), then it's reasonable to question why the government could not just have invested the money itself into our economy and kept taxes at their previous levels? The argument could go round and round, but the picture we're left with - a government imposing strict austerity on the people, while reducing the tax burden of the riches - still hangs around their necks.

I’m struggling to disagree with any of that, even in the interests of a good debate.

If people like me are agreeing with large chunks of that mindset, it is bound to happen because it means a majority of the country will support it.

The trick is to make it happen without the excesses of Marxism, without unduly punishing the rich (who will then find a way to stop it), and without throwing the baby out with the bath water (worsening everyone’s living standards to try to make it more equal).

[aggi]

During the last 30 years, while manufacturing has shrunk by 2/3rds and millions of quality jobs have gone. The country has had governments of all hues.

The one constant through out, has been membership of the European Union.

You'll say it's absolutely nothing with the EU.

Fine.

Well it's one of any number of constants.

You didn't answer my question whether the EU caused the huge decline in manufacturing jobs in the US? Or maybe the ones in Japan, did they cause those too?

[Imploding Turtle]

"Marxism" The "excesses" of "Marxism"



Jesus H. Christ. Thankfully capitalism has no such excesses.

"without unduly punishing the rich", it's always punishment for those people, isn't it? Having a society that isn't oppressed by corporatism is "punishment". **** right off.

[Imploding Turtle]

Well it's one of any number of constants.

You didn't answer my question whether the EU caused the huge decline in manufacturing jobs in the US? Or maybe the ones in Japan, did they cause those too?

Don't accept his premise. He's wrong.

[Vino blanco]

The German car builders didn't need to move production in a big way to Eastern Europe, they chose the acquisition route instead. VW simply went and bought the largest Eastern European car maker by far, Skoda in the Czech Republic, which they modernised and brought up to Waestern European manufacturing standards. The only other major car maker in Central/Eastern Europe was Dacia in Romania, which was immediately bought by Renault and also retooled and modernised.

I sat on the boards of German and French companies in the 80s and 90, companies, which our British Holding company had acquired through acquisition. Some German companies do have two types of controlling boards of directors, the Vorsichtsrat and the Aufsichtrat. The former is the board, which runs the company and the latter contains members of the workers representatives. All executive decisions of the company are made by the executive directors, who run the company, the workers representatives do not make major decisions regarding the future of the company, though they are informed of the executive board's decisions.

The company I worked for was a major supplier to the furniture industry in the UK, Germany, France, and the rest of the whole of Western Europe. When the wall came down in 1989, all the German furniture manufacturers went out and bought existing furniture manufacturing plants, mainly in Poland and Czechoslovakia, where labour costs were 10 percent of the German costs. This had an immediate effect on on our German factories, which lost volume and profitability. We didn't sit back and cry in our beer, we went out and built new factories in Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania etc to take on these challenges. These factories in Eatern Europe soon became the most profitable and efficient factories in the whole of our company and I'm talking here of a British PLC with over £1 billion turnover. After five years of operating in Eastern Europe I was controlling 10 factories, employing over 1,000 people. The cash profits we made there were repatriated back to the UK parent company to enable further investments in the rest of the world.

I suppose my message is: don't be afraid of change, embrace it, be p repaired to act in new markets and new industries, that's how to succeed.


T

[RingoMcCartney]

Ringo, is this how you calculated the 2/3rds figure?

"The Office for National Statistics found that even though just eight per cent of UK jobs are in manufacturing, compared to 25 per cent in 1978, overall manufacturing output has actually increased."

Did you or your dumb source seriously just take 25% of our economy becoming 8% of our economy over the last 40 years and just absolutely butcher basic mathematics?

I took it from an article in your beloved Guardian.

Entitled "Why doesn't Britain make things any more?"

By Aditya Chakrabortty

Google it.

[RingoMcCartney]

Well it's one of any number of constants.

You didn't answer my question whether the EU caused the huge decline in manufacturing jobs in the US? Or maybe the ones in Japan, did they cause those too?

No and No.

As I said previously, you'll never admit that governments of all persuasions, have consistently over indulged London and the south east and neglected the rest of the country. The one consistent has been eu membership.

17.4 million voters agree with me that's it's been detrimental to the country. They had 40 odd years to decide that.

You'll glibly say they fell for lies on a bus.

Fine. I can live with that. And I'm done doing this particular argument that you and I have done to death.

[Burnley Ace]

I took it from an article in your beloved Guardian.

Entitled "Why doesn't Britain make things any more?"

By Aditya Chakrabortty

Google it.

Did you read all the article? Could it be that the phenomenal rise, over the last 30 years, of the service sector has meant that as a proportion of the National Income manufacturing has fallen from 30% to 11% (the article is 2011 so don’t know what proportion is now)

[RingoMcCartney]

Yeah my mistake.

Millions of manufacturing jobs haven't been lost because the pedants want to argue the toss from now till Kingdom come about the minutiae of a guardian article.

Yep towns like Burnley definitely haven't had its manufacturing guts ripped out while we've been in the EU.

Let's talk about percentages instead like we're in a court room!

[Imploding Turtle]

I took it from an article in your beloved Guardian.

Entitled "Why doesn't Britain make things any more?"

By Aditya Chakrabortty

Google it.

And you believed it uncritically? Wait. Of course you did.

[Imploding Turtle]

Yeah my mistake.

Millions of manufacturing jobs haven't been lost because the pedants want to argue the toss from now till Kingdom come about the minutiae of a guardian article.

Yep towns like Burnley definitely haven't had its manufacturing guts ripped out while we've been in the EU.

Let's talk about percentages instead like we're in a court room!

Nobody's denying that manufacturing jobs have been lost. The only difference is that people like me know where those jobs went. They didn't go aborad. How do i know? Because productivity has soared in the time frame you specified. And while productivity has soared, jobs have declined. Why do you suppose that is? What possible reason could there be fo... it's automation. I'm not even going to bother thinking of a clever way to lead this horse to the water, he doesn't even know how to drink.

[RingoMcCartney]

Did you read all the article? Could it be that the phenomenal rise, over the last 30 years, of the service sector has meant that as a proportion of the National Income manufacturing has fallen from 30% to 11% (the article is 2011 so don’t know what proportion is now)

I asked you this question-

Did the vast majority of labour MPs vote to have an eu referendum? Yes Or No?

You answered - "No"

It's an historic fact that this happened on June 9th 2015

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33067157" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"MPs have overwhelmingly backed plans for a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union. 

The VOTE , which followed the first debate on the EU Referendum Bill, means the legislation moves to the next stage of its progress through Parliament.

Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said a "generation" had been denied a say on the UK's place in Europe, and the public must now have the "final say".

MPs voted by 544 to 53 in favour of the bill."

Why don't you have a little look in Hansard !  

You can huff and puff and stamp your feet. Trying to squirm around the facts. In fact the longer and more protracted you continue to have your tantrum the more satisfaction I get out of proving you wrong!

So drag it on as long as you like Burnley Not So Ace!

Reality and facts- 1. The gift that keeps on giving - 0 (again !)

[Imploding Turtle]

Notice how the alt-right member has pivoted away from the area where he was utterly and completely wrong without even acknowledging that he posted bullshit?
That's Ringo McCartney for you. Always wrong, never corrects himself, never accepts being corrected. Just change the subject. Are we sure he's not a bot?

[Guich]

:

"Marxism" The "excesses" of "Marxism"



Jesus H. Christ. Thankfully capitalism has no such excesses.

"without unduly punishing the rich", it's always punishment for those people, isn't it? Having a society that isn't oppressed by corporatism is "punishment". **** right off.

Nurse!

[Lowbankclaret]

Yeah my mistake.

Millions of manufacturing jobs haven't been lost because the pedants want to argue the toss from now till Kingdom come about the minutiae of a guardian article.

Yep towns like Burnley definitely haven't had its manufacturing guts ripped out while we've been in the EU.

Let's talk about percentages instead like we're in a court room!

When I joined Lucas as an apprentice in 81 they took on about 50 apprentices that year, probably half of the year before intake.

Lucas had 7 factories in and around Burnley.

I am not suggesting the EU caused the downfall of Lucas because I would say it was bad strategy decisions.

There are some factories remaining under different names and aerospace in this area is seeing a rise in jobs . What I see on my visits is lots of American aero contracts being won by local firms.

I think the reason is we still have high skilled people around from those old large companies. How local companies compete is automation and high quality product.

When I started out in Engineering, one man ran one machine.
Now one man can run 5-7 machines with multi-pallet loaders that can then run lights out for several hours.

Interestingly complex machining is more expensive in low cost economies, due to the costs of maintenance as the expertise has to be flown out when they break and they have to hold significantly more critical spares.

So less jobs is because of automation, the move at moment is go to robot loading of machines which will probably reduce the man to machine ration to 10 or more machines per man.

I see manufacturing growing over time as low cost countries are no longer low cost, I was in China last year and they have invested millions in new equipment but that has pushed up their costs to being very similar to UK costs for complex parts.

[RingoMcCartney]

Notice how the alt-right member has pivoted away from the area where he was utterly and completely wrong without even acknowledging that he posted bullshit?
That's Ringo McCartney for you. Always wrong, never corrects himself, never accepts being corrected. Just change the subject. Are we sure he's not a bot?

No, your 100% right.

The north west, North East, the west Country and the Midlands have boomed and had billions poured into them by successive governments. The infrastructure of these areas are world class. Millions of high class well paid jobs have been preserved and created. Zero hours contracts don't exist. Job security has never been higher for millions of workers. Meanwhile London has become a virtual derelict back water. . And thankfully all this has happened while we've been in the wonderful EU.

All those 17.4 million who wanted to end the status quo, were just geriatric old provincial nazis.

Thanks for the the belated enlightenment

[Imploding Turtle]

No, your 100% right.

The north west, North East, the west Country and the Midlands have boomed and had billions poured into them by successive governments. The infrastructure of these areas are world class. Millions of high class well paid jobs have been preserved and created. Zero hours contracts don't exist. Job security has never been higher for millions of workers. Meanwhile London has become a virtual derelict back water. . And thankfully all this has happened while we've been in the wonderful EU.

All those 17.4 million who wanted to end the status quo, were just geriatric old provincial nazis.

Thanks for the the belated enlightenment

More lies. More disinformation. More blaming the EU for things they have absolutely nothing to do with. It's a compulsion for you, isn't it?