Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

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aggi
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:31 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:True but they are trying to ignore the fact a recession is coming, which the US will be immune from.

Choose your dance partner.

One drags you down with it, the other we could just hold our own or even prosper a little.
Has this come from a less kooky source than Peter Zeihan?

martin_p
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:42 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:You can try to ignore economic fact.

It’s actually nothing to do with Brexit, the demographic facts are coming home to roost.

If you took the time to investigate and read, you might understand.
I suggest you won’t bother.
The facts you have are demographic not economic. Care for the elderly costing more is something that certainly needs addressing, but that fact does not equate to their being a recession.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:43 pm

martin_p wrote:Except no one believes that except you. Even some of the most ardent Brexiteers will admit that leaving the EU will cause economic damage (short term in their opinion).
43E11280-8CEA-4CB7-A05F-F89B76ACA414.png
43E11280-8CEA-4CB7-A05F-F89B76ACA414.png (1010.18 KiB) Viewed 3241 times
India’s demographic is considered normal.

There are loads of young people earning money to support the old folks

The whole EU has way less young people to support the old folk, in any world that’s a bad thing.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:45 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
43E11280-8CEA-4CB7-A05F-F89B76ACA414.png
India’s demographic is considered normal.

There are loads of young people earning money to support the old folks

The whole EU has way less young people to support the old folk, in any world that’s a bad thing.
Germany is known for this problem isn't it?
Not enough young people, hence why they had the Turks over a number of years ago and why they keep encouraging immigration etc.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:47 pm

martin_p wrote:The facts you have are demographic not economic. Care for the elderly costing more is something that certainly needs addressing, but that fact does not equate to their being a recession.
So less people in work, with all their money going on care for the elderly.

I know people paying 600-1000 per week to help look after their parents. When their life savings run out, who pays??

The state, higher taxes.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:53 pm

aggi wrote:Has this come from a less kooky source than Peter Zeihan?
To be fair demographic data is just data.

Do I agree with some of his conclusions , no.

But more people taking out than putting in equals a recession.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:54 pm

LeuvenClaret wrote:What will you change at the boarder for it to be more helpful? What are our border force not doing that you would like implemented to help stop modern day slavery? What is stopping that being done now?

Our border controls around free movement are the strongest of any EU country so I am really interested in your Brexit utopian future.
What will I change at the boarder ?

I'm not in charge. However, I often listen to immigration officials on the radio who are at their wits end because the system is not fit for purpose and their work load means they are ineffectual.

The whole system clearly needs an root and branch overhaul at the same time that we end free movement of people.


I said in my opinion it will help.
I asked you a couple of questions that you still haven't answered.

I'll try again.

1 So do you have any evidence that ending free movement of people won't help? 

2 are you still peddling your agenda of approving the commoditification of human beings?
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:57 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:To be fair demographic data is just data.

Do I agree with some of his conclusions , no.

But more people taking out than putting in equals a recession.
More people take out than put in now. That’s why we have public sector borrowing. It doesn’t equal recession (for a start the care sector is booming!)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:57 pm

martin_p wrote:The evidence is all there Wrongo, the fact that you don’t want to believe it doesn’t change that fact. Countries that don’t have freedom of movement into the U.K. traffic far more people into the country than those that do. Ergo freedom of movement is not a factor in increasing trafficking.

And to claim I’m relaxed about the practice when you are fixated on something that even by your own twisted logic will address a small percentage of the problem is hypocritical to say the least. I’d love human trafficking to disappear, but in order to do that we need to concentrate on things that will actually make a difference not some Brexiteer fantasy that isn’t backed up by any of the available evidence (much like pretty much every Brexiteer fantasy).
You've had nearly 2 years to provide, and back up your hollow claim that you had this much vaunted evidence that ending free movement of people will not help people trafficking, exploitation and modern day slavery.

Still waiting......

aggi
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:59 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:To be fair demographic data is just data.

Do I agree with some of his conclusions , no.

But more people taking out than putting in equals a recession.
It is but it's quite meaningless without interpretation.

For instance people are retiring later than they used to and older people are often higher earners as the nature of work moves from manual to sedentary. Factors such as those also need to be considered.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:05 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:What will I change at the boarder ?

I'm not in charge. However, I often listen to immigration officials on the radio who are at their wits end because the system is not fit for purpose and their work load means they are ineffectual.
And Brexit will make that workload worse.
RingoMcCartney wrote: I said in my opinion it will help.
On what do you base your opinion?

RingoMcCartney wrote: I asked you a couple of questions that you still haven't answered.

I'll try again.

1 So do you have any evidence that ending free movement of people won't help? 

2 are you still peddling your agenda of approving the commoditification of human beings?
1. You’ve been given the evidence, more people are trafficked into this country from outside the EU so clearly not having free movement isn’t making it any more difficult to get people into the country.

2. You’re the one who only wants to help a minority of those trafficked into this country (and the help you’re offering is useless).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:07 am

nil_desperandum wrote:There's no logic in your argument.
I don't suppose that this will help, but I'll have one more go.
Let's ignore actual statistics, (real numbers), and just agree that currently there's too much trafficking to the UK from non-EU countries (agree? yes).
And that there's modern day slavery of UK citizens within the UK itself (agree? yes)
Currently we either can't stop it, or put insufficient resources into tackling it (agree? yes)
If we can do it in the future, then we could do it now (agree? yes)
Now when we leave the EU, those who are currently EU citizens will have the same status and rights of entry as those who are currently non -EU citizens? (agree? yes)
So - if non-EU citizens can illegally enter the UK now and operate illegally, what is going to change post- brexit?
Do you have any evidence that suggests anything will change?
How (e.g.) do you stop anyone catching the bus (or simply driving) from Dublin to Belfast? unless we rigorously enforce a hard border, which just about everyone has ruled out, and how do you stop traffickers bringing victims here on "holiday", and then them simply "disappearing"? No one so far has proposed that EU citizens won't be able to enter the UK freely post-brexit, and as Aggi correctly points out above, with less co-operation with our European neighbours over border control, and very many other intelligence / security issues we might actually find that one unintended consequence of brexit is an increase in illegal activity.
[But let me agree with you on one point. If the UK leaving the EU resulted in a reduction of trafficking it would indeed be a good thing, and everyone on this board agrees with this. But you are unable to make a supported case that it will, whilst others have pointed out the flaws in your argument).
Ever since 2017 when I first raised this issue following another similar cases of people trafficking and slavery. I simply said it was my opinion that ending free movement of people will help stop people trafficking , exploitation and modern day slavery.

Others have claimed, Marty in particular, they have evidence that proves it won't. Nobody has provided that evidence to date.

I get it, somebody has had the neck to say that there will be a positive from leaving the EU and blasphemous talk like that must be crushed.

It won't change my opinion.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:07 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:You've had nearly 2 years to provide, and back up your hollow claim that you had this much vaunted evidence that ending free movement of people will not help people trafficking, exploitation and modern day slavery.

Still waiting......
Kim Darroch would have a field day with you!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:09 am

Google that population pyramid that Lowbank shared, but this time for China. Wowzers :shock:

Anyway, the reason for logging on is just to say - on his enforced pre-retirement wind down, Andrew Neil's total and utter destruction of Blair's 10 year Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell, is brilliant. Look forward to him doing the same to Boris and Jeremy tomorrow.

This Week, tonight, Iplayer, about 10 minutes in.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:14 am

martin_p wrote:And Brexit will make that workload worse.

On what do you base your opinion?




1. You’ve been given the evidence, more people are trafficked into this country from outside the EU so clearly not having free movement isn’t making it any more difficult to get people into the country.

2. You’re the one who only wants to help a minority of those trafficked into this country (and the help you’re offering is useless).
1, The only evidence I've been given relates to the numbers and the origins of people. You still , after nearly 2 years , have yet to provide an example of a country that ended the EUs free movement of people, which did not see a fall in the number of people trafficking, exploitation and modern day slavery afterwards.

2 You're projecting.

#burntheblasphemer

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:19 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:Ever since 2017 when I first raised this issue following another similar cases of people trafficking and slavery. I simply said it was my opinion that ending free movement of people will help stop people trafficking , exploitation and modern day slavery.

Others have claimed, Marty in particular, they have evidence that proves it won't. Nobody has provided that evidence to date.

I get it, somebody has had the neck to say that there will be a positive from leaving the EU and blasphemous talk like that must be crushed.

It won't change my opinion.
It won’t change your opinion because it isn’t based on anything and therefore can’t be challenged. You can’t explain why you hold the opinion or offer anything to back it up. It reminds me of what my son used to say up until about a year ago when I asked him why he thought something or where he’d come up with some piece of information. ‘I just thinked it in my head’ he’d say. Of course he was only three then but now he’s four going on five he’s able to construct an argument, even if it’s just as simple as he thinks he should have an ice cream because it’s a hot day. But at the age of four he is genuinely better than Wrongo at constructing and supporting an argument (and this isn’t even meant as a joke).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:31 am

TheFamilyCat wrote:I love how Ringo is using “End modern day slavery” as a code for “stop foreigners coming in” but in a way that he thinks doesn’t make him sound like a racist.
I love how first you said-
TheFamilyCat wrote:When did Ringo’s obsession with people trafficking start?

All of a sudden it seems to be his main (only?) argument for Brexit.
Then I pointed out I first mentioned it nearly 2 years ago.

I love how you then said-

TheFamilyCat wrote:You made one comment about it then.

Now it seems to be all you post about.
To which I pointed out that I'd discussed at length with Marty and was still waiting for his evidence that he claimed trumped my opinion.

So now I really love seeing you reduced to the europhile default position of calling somebody racist.

You guys!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:44 am

martin_p wrote:It won’t change your opinion because it isn’t based on anything and therefore can’t be challenged. You can’t explain why you hold the opinion or offer anything to back it up. It reminds me of what my son used to say up until about a year ago when I asked him why he thought something or where he’d come up with some piece of information. ‘I just thinked it in my head’ he’d say. Of course he was only three then but now he’s four going on five he’s able to construct an argument, even if it’s just as simple as he thinks he should have an ice cream because it’s a hot day. But at the age of four he is genuinely better than Wrongo at constructing and supporting an argument (and this isn’t even meant as a joke).
Well, despite being offered many many opportunities, I can't help but draw to the conclusion that despite only having, in your words, "just an opinion Wrongo." It's more than you have. Cos you certainly don't have any of that evidence you claimed you had!

You keep up the good work of hunting down those who refuse to show reverence to the EU. You keep trying silencing those that refuse to bend a knee at the Deity of Brussels.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:44 am

martin_p wrote:More people take out than put in now. That’s why we have public sector borrowing. It doesn’t equal recession (for a start the care sector is booming!)
That is simply illogical, if you take out more than goes in your in debt.

If you borrow to support less and less people putting in, eventually you are completely bankrupt.

Perhaps your part of the modern world that thinks you can just keep on borrowing money you never intend to pay back without any long term consequences.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:49 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:Well, despite being offered many many opportunities, I can't help but draw to the conclusion that despite only having, in your words, "just an opinion Wrongo." It's more than you have. Cos you certainly don't have any of that evidence you claimed you had!

You keep up the good work of hunting down those who refuse to show reverence to the EU. You keep trying silencing those that refuse to bend a knee at the Deity of Brussels.
You see, you’ve been offered another opportunity to construct an argument and you can’t. Whether you believe what I have provided is evidence or not and even if you think it’s just an opinion, I can explain my reasoning and how I come to my conclusions. When it comes to debate Wrongo you’re an utter waste of time.

P.s. please look up the definition of ‘evidence’, you still have a fundamental misunderstandings of the meanings of the word.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:53 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:That is simply illogical, if you take out more than goes in your in debt.

If you borrow to support less and less people putting in, eventually you are completely bankrupt.

Perhaps your part of the modern world that thinks you can just keep on borrowing money you never intend to pay back without any long term consequences.
Your mistake is thinking that personal debt and government debt are in any way analogous. The U.K. has been in debt at various levels for over 300 years, it’s how countries run.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:56 am

aggi wrote:Has this come from a less kooky source than Peter Zeihan?
So do you have alternative data that proves his wrong.

What are your conclusions based on your data sources.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:05 am

martin_p wrote:Your mistake is thinking that personal debt and government debt are in any way analogous. The U.K. has been in debt at various levels for over 300 years, it’s how countries run.
So your just advocating borrowing more and more money and never paying it back. Adding more burden onto less kids.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Imploding Turtle » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:50 am

Image
This user liked this post: longsidepies

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:20 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:So your just advocating borrowing more and more money and never paying it back. Adding more burden onto less kids.
I’m not advocating anything, i’m arguing against your assertion that paying out more than you take in equals a recession. We’ve had a budget deficit for a while now and are likely to continue to do so for a while yet (despite Cameron’s promise it would be gone by now). That fact hasn’t caused a recession has it?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Devils_Advocate » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:44 am

You must have felt like you were in a scene off Dumb and Dumber debating with those two last night Martin

aggi
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:39 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:So do you have alternative data that proves his wrong.

What are your conclusions based on your data sources.
You can draw different conclusions from the same data. For instance the increasing levels of automation and machine learning will have a big impact on society. Are younger people going to be as productive when a lot of their jobs are potentially easy to replace. When knowledge becomes more important than physical capability will the age demographic matter as much? Within a few years it is likely that the retirement age for women in the UK will be 10 years higher than it was a short time ago. You have to take that kind of thing into consideration when looking at the data.

Japan has an even more aging population but he predicts that they will be the dominant country in Asia.

Also, things such as climate change, which he largely ignores, may make a big impact on the future direction of the world economies. A few cataclysmic events may drive us in very different directions. A lot of Zeitan's predictions seem to be around the role of fossil fuels, particularly in the US. Alternative energy is moving at a pace, and countries can always fall back on nuclear if the situation gets as bad as Zeitan predicts.

At the moment we're seeing the EU step into the "global cop" role that Zeitan says will be empty once the US becomes energy independent. (Although his whole fundamental premise that as soon as the US becomes energy independent they will just close in on themselves and ignore the rest of the world is not one I'm buying at all.)

Maybe he'll turn out to be right but there's no more reason to believe him than anyone else (and given his lack of citing sources, peer reviewed research, etc a few reasons to believe him less).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:49 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:Google that population pyramid that Lowbank shared, but this time for China. Wowzers :shock:

Anyway, the reason for logging on is just to say - on his enforced pre-retirement wind down, Andrew Neil's total and utter destruction of Blair's 10 year Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell, is brilliant. Look forward to him doing the same to Boris and Jeremy tomorrow.

This Week, tonight, Iplayer, about 10 minutes in.
And yes this is more stuff from Zeihan, you can read it in his books or his press releases on his website.

China had a one child policy which they now call there 4-2-1 problem. 4 grandparents, 2 parents and one child. Now I am not saying Zeihan is correct but China have a massive problem supporting their elderly.

Also he explains that workers have only four choices on where to put their savings, these banks then money at very low rates and he says they lend for anything and of your struggling to pay back they just lend more money as the main aim is employment not profit.

Problem is due to the demographic those savings will dry up.

Now it make sense to me, the future will determine who correct.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:58 pm

aggi wrote:You can draw different conclusions from the same data. For instance the increasing levels of automation and machine learning will have a big impact on society. Are younger people going to be as productive when a lot of their jobs are potentially easy to replace. When knowledge becomes more important than physical capability will the age demographic matter as much? Within a few years it is likely that the retirement age for women in the UK will be 10 years higher than it was a short time ago. You have to take that kind of thing into consideration when looking at the data.

Japan has an even more aging population but he predicts that they will be the dominant country in Asia.

Also, things such as climate change, which he largely ignores, may make a big impact on the future direction of the world economies. A few cataclysmic events may drive us in very different directions. A lot of Zeitan's predictions seem to be around the role of fossil fuels, particularly in the US. Alternative energy is moving at a pace, and countries can always fall back on nuclear if the situation gets as bad as Zeitan predicts.

At the moment we're seeing the EU step into the "global cop" role that Zeitan says will be empty once the US becomes energy independent. (Although his whole fundamental premise that as soon as the US becomes energy independent they will just close in on themselves and ignore the rest of the world is not one I'm buying at all.)

Maybe he'll turn out to be right but there's no more reason to believe him than anyone else (and given his lack of citing sources, peer reviewed research, etc a few reasons to believe him less).

It’s not a case of believing, more a case of looking at his point of view. It a complex subject I agree.


Where are the example of the EU becoming the global cop?? Serious question.

If the US really steps back form protecting global shipping, the antics of the last few days will be nothing compared to what will happen.

Fuel prices in the UK could double over a matter of months.

He predicts Iran want take over Saudi Arabia, without the US to stop them who would, I don’t think the EU have the army and navy to do it without us. I for one think we should leave well alone and not get involved. The EU have got us dragged into it again and what are they doing to help?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:37 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:You must have felt like you were in a scene off Dumb and Dumber debating with those two last night Martin
And there it is, someone posting derogatory insults.

Think that’s shows more about your intellect than mine.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:49 pm

martin_p wrote:I’m not advocating anything, i’m arguing against your assertion that paying out more than you take in equals a recession. We’ve had a budget deficit for a while now and are likely to continue to do so for a while yet (despite Cameron’s promise it would be gone by now). That fact hasn’t caused a recession has it?


recession
/rɪˈsɛʃ(ə)n/
noun
1.
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

With less people earning and spending please How are we going avoid a recession by borrowing more money. How much percentage of GDP do you propose to borrow as the bigger the percentage the higher interest rate your gunna pay.

Estimates of drops in GDP are anywhere from 5 to 10% when we leave the EU, it seems impossibly to avoid.

An interesting example of what Zeihan advocates came to pass last year in Germany, now they are not shouting from the roof tops they were in recession, but the Rhine levels dropped so low last year Germany could not supply its factories of raw materials pushing it into a recession. As the major power in the EU that’s got to be an issue.

https://www.businessinsider.nl/germany- ... ry-2019-1/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:22 pm

Would be really funny if Aaron Banks spends his libel money that he wins from Carol Cadwallder on Brexit leaflets.
X10 if remoaners crowd fund her settlement fee

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:29 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:recession
/rɪˈsɛʃ(ə)n/
noun
1.
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

With less people earning and spending please How are we going avoid a recession by borrowing more money. How much percentage of GDP do you propose to borrow as the bigger the percentage the higher interest rate your gunna pay.

Estimates of drops in GDP are anywhere from 5 to 10% when we leave the EU, it seems impossibly to avoid.

An interesting example of what Zeihan advocates came to pass last year in Germany, now they are not shouting from the roof tops they were in recession, but the Rhine levels dropped so low last year Germany could not supply its factories of raw materials pushing it into a recession. As the major power in the EU that’s got to be an issue.

https://www.businessinsider.nl/germany- ... ry-2019-1/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I’m not sure where to start with that muddle of a post!

Yes, there’s a good chance we’ll go into recession when we leave the EU according to experts. I agree, but that wasn’t your point. It’s know what a recession is, but thanks for the dictionary definition. Germany may or may not have gone into a temporary recession (although officially it didn’t), but that wasn’t anything to do with government borrowing or demographics so I’m not sure what it’s got to do with the point you were making.

The U.K. has had a budget deficit for most of the last 30 years yet we’ve spent very little time in that 45 years in recession. It’s only really the years after the Second World War that we’ve been running any significant surplus (in the period since the war). Budget deficit does not equal recession!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:39 pm

Just watching Boris squirm on the Andrew Neil interview. We’re all doomed!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Erasmus » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:40 pm

I have never heard of this Zeihan fellow, but if he seriously thinks Iran is planning on taking over Saudi Arabia that would put him in the weirdo category. The idea of Iran imposing a Shi'ite regime over the heartland of Sunni Islam is just so ridiculous that it must raise massive doubts over anything he says.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:40 pm

Damo wrote:Would be really funny if Aaron Banks spends his libel money that he wins from Carol Cadwallder on Brexit leaflets.
X10 if remoaners crowd fund her settlement fee
How much have the courts awarded him?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:57 pm

martin_p wrote:I’m not sure where to start with that muddle of a post!

Yes, there’s a good chance we’ll go into recession when we leave the EU according to experts. I agree, but that wasn’t your point. It’s know what a recession is, but thanks for the dictionary definition. Germany may or may not have gone into a temporary recession (although officially it didn’t), but that wasn’t anything to do with government borrowing or demographics so I’m not sure what it’s got to do with the point you were making.

Mr Zeihan ‘ s main points on geopolitics are that rivers provide wealth as it’s the cheapest form of transport, disrupt that and you have a major impact on economics, that was my point. It kinda put some credence to his point, Is that going to happen again , probably not soon, last year was an outlying year for weather or at least I hope it was.


The U.K. has had a budget deficit for most of the last 30 years yet we’ve spent very little time in that 45 years in recession. It’s only really the years after the Second World War that we’ve been running any significant surplus (in the period since the war). Budget deficit does not equal recession!
We have not faced a demographic issue like we have now in that time either.

3 things are coming together all at once.
Leaving the EU.
Demographics.
US pulling out of protecting global transport.


Just borrowing money is not going solve these issues.

Less or difficult trading with the EU, possibly tariffs.

Less tax payers and more OAP’s needing paying pensions and lots more health care costs.

Increased defence spending to protect shipping.

I am not being funny here, I am genuinely interested how borrowing more money will fix this.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by martin_p » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:01 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:We have not faced a demographic issue like we have now in that time either.

3 things are coming together all at once.
Leaving the EU.
Demographics.
US pulling out of protecting global transport.


Just borrowing money is not going solve these issues.

Less or difficult trading with the EU, possibly tariffs.

Less tax payers and more OAP’s needing paying pensions and lots more health care costs.

Increased defence spending to protect shipping.

I am not being funny here, I am genuinely interested how borrowing more money will fix this.
I’ve never said it will, as I keep saying I’m disputing your claim that the government spending more than it gets in causes a recession.

And if your worried about those three factors coming together at once then why don’t we do something about the one factor we have under our control as a country and not leave the EU.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:10 pm

Greenmile wrote:How much have the courts awarded him?
Sorry. Did I frame that comment wrong?
Did I say all instead of most?
Not sure how you confused that one being as bright as you are

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:34 pm

Martin P,
I also get your point about increased use of AI and robots.

That’s an area I know a bit about. That’s not going to help but make matters worse.

So and I need to be cryptic so I don’t get into trouble.

Take the process of forging an alloy wheel. It’s a 4 stage forging process

In Europe to compete the newest process i have seen is fully robotic and produces a forging every 15 seconds, it’s key the forging does not lose heat between each process hence the short time.

In low cost economies , you still have processes where the press is set up four times to complete the same outcome.

In Europe you have high skilled high paid programmers but no operators costs.

Low cost you have skilled people paid nearly the same as here but low cost labour.

Result based on total cost of purchase it’s cheaper here.

However the price paid is in reduced jobs.

Less jobs less tax revenue.


And there are lots of examples of the spread of this.

MacDonalds in Texas, fully robotic takeaway. Roll that out worldwide to KFC, Burger King etc.

Insurance in Japan, AI computers made I think 300 workers redundant.

Bring in driverless vans and trucks and taxis .

Your tax base is reducing at a massive rate.

The drive to remove the human as they are the single most expensive part of business, surely ultimately means no one has enough money to buy the goods you made.

The next twenty years are going to be very interesting.

I find the drive to reduce cost an interest cycle.
Boeing outsourced the MTOC software For the 737 MAX to a $10 an hour company. Result 350 dead, probably a $2-3 billion dollar bill and if the authorities find any more mistakes it could end the company.

Not sure where it all ends but it’s going to be a bumpy ride I think.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:44 pm

Damo wrote:Sorry. Did I frame that comment wrong?
Did I say all instead of most?
Not sure how you confused that one being as bright as you are
Ah ok, was it a hypothetical? Like “it would be really funny if Sean Dyche drops the Premier League trophy on the open top bus tour next summer”?

Fair enough then. In that case, your usage of the language was fine and the misunderstanding was all mine.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:31 pm

Greenmile wrote:Ah ok, was it a hypothetical? Like “it would be really funny if Sean Dyche drops the Premier League trophy on the open top bus tour next summer”?

Fair enough then. In that case, your usage of the language was fine and the misunderstanding was all mine.
Ah ok?
Did it really take a second comment for you to realise my original comment was hypothetical?

I thought you were really bright? Or brighter than me at least.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:26 am

Damo wrote:Ah ok?
Did it really take a second comment for you to realise my original comment was hypothetical?

I thought you were really bright? Or brighter than me at least.
You thought half-right. I’ve never claimed to be “really bright”, but I am brighter than you.
This user liked this post: evensteadiereddie

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Damo » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:44 am

Greenmile wrote:You thought half-right. I’ve never claimed to be “really bright”, but I am brighter than you.
dunning kruger

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Greenmile » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:04 am

Damo wrote:dunning kruger

Doesn’t apply as I’m not trying to provide an objective assessment of my own intelligence. I’d be happy to admit I am of well below average intelligence.

All I’m saying is that I’m considerably brighter than you.

These two statements are not mutually exclusive.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by aggi » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:05 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:We have not faced a demographic issue like we have now in that time either.

3 things are coming together all at once.
Leaving the EU.
Demographics.
US pulling out of protecting global transport.

There's no evidence that this is happening though, it's just what he believes will happen.

The US have just sent some ships to the Gulf for instance. It's also assuming that when the US become energy independent that they won't be importing or exporting anything else, they're just going to be entirely self-sufficient. Are all those global US companies are just going to pull back into the US and give up on the rest of the world? That sounds pretty far-fetched.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:47 pm

aggi wrote:There's no evidence that this is happening though, it's just what he believes will happen.

The US have just sent some ships to the Gulf for instance. It's also assuming that when the US become energy independent that they won't be importing or exporting anything else, they're just going to be entirely self-sufficient. Are all those global US companies are just going to pull back into the US and give up on the rest of the world? That sounds pretty far-fetched.

Agreed.

However the Gulf issue has in part been caused by the US pulling out its aircraft carrier, not fully but it was stationed there permanently and now it’s not. Iran thought it could ship some oil to Syria so we had to act to stop it for the EU. 6-12 months ago this would have not even hit the news as the US would have dealt with it. We are now having to ask the US to help for which they may want something in return. Trumps not in the market for freebies.

I am not suggesting that the US companies will stop trading with the world, the US will protect its own export shipping.

Can I see Demographics being a problem , absolutely, government is scrambling to deal with it now. Men retirement age gone from 65 to 67, women’s from 60 to 67. The removal of compulsory retirement at 65.
Attempting to close all the loopholes to make people use all their assets to pay for their care, that £200,000 house your parents spent all their life paying for can be gone in less than two years. Then who pays the tax payer.
We can see today the effect on services and policing and schools and the NHS on how much money is in the coffers to pay for things.
Granted you can borrow as has been pointed but then you have to pay interest each year from your declining tax revenue, now I am certainly no expert in financing a country, but that sounds like a long term bad idea. If it was a short term (15-20) year dip I can see an argument for it.

Then there is leaving the EU.
Even I as a staunch Brexiteer, I know there will be hit on GDP for several years, hence I think a short term recession is inevitable. However I think longer term we will be better off out of the EU.

Also do I think most of Zeihan apocalyptic thoughts will come to pass, no I don’t.

But I do think there will be some testing times ahead. Absolutely.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:53 pm

martin_p wrote:You see, you’ve been offered another opportunity to construct an argument and you can’t. Whether you believe what I have provided is evidence or not and even if you think it’s just an opinion, I can explain my reasoning and how I come to my conclusions. When it comes to debate Wrongo you’re an utter waste of time.

P.s. please look up the definition of ‘evidence’, you still have a fundamental misunderstandings of the meanings of the word.
I've proven time after time I know what evidence is. It's remoaners on here that don't understand what "conjecture" is and what predictions, suppositions, forecasts , economic modelling are.

As some i pointed out that , prior to the referendum the remain side claimed the HM treasury report , backed by George Osborne, following a leave vote, not actually leaving, would see an extra 850,000 unemployed. Was EVIDENCE that voting leave would be economically wrong. Now that time has proven it to be a lie, the remoaner excuse is that it wasn't evidence but it's become a prediction.

Talking of evidence You've had nearly 2 years to provide, and back up your hollow claim that you had this much vaunted evidence that ending free movement of people will not help people trafficking, exploitation and modern day slavery. 

Still waiting......

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:56 pm

martin_p wrote:You already have you dolt!
Hoping I'd forgotten.

No.

Point to it.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Post by RingoMcCartney » Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:02 pm

martin_p wrote:The fact that he only seems to care about trafficking from within the EU and doesn’t seem concerned about Asian slaves makes him look more racist.

Given that the title of this thread is "Brexit - the naked truth" I'd have thought that looking at the benefits of leaving the EU, which will be ending free movement of people, is an entirely reasonable thing to bring up. Only the unthinking types would want to make laughable and desperate claims of racism!

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