Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Greenmile]

Greenmile, you bitch!!! I want a divorce! I'm submitting ForumPost 50. You have 2 hours to negotiate my withdrawal. You need me more than I need you. Hurr durr.

Now i can finally trade with Tanzania.

I think he means he blocks me as well as blocking you because, like most brexiters, he doesn’t like seeing people call out his lies.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm still not blocked.

That either means he doesn't see me as a threat (Crosspool! How could you?) or that my arguments are so damn persuasive that he's on the verge of handing back his blue passport and joining the remain cause.

[Imploding Turtle]

I think he means he blocks me as well as blocking you because, like most brexiters, he doesn’t like seeing people call out his lies.

I knew what he meant. Why you gotta ruin my fun? This is why Trump won!!!

[martin_p]

It’s not a lie thought is it. We will save that appx
Amount of money by not contributing to the EUs budget.

Our economy will collapse or suffer badly a view being pushed out by those with their fingers in the EUs pie is just that an opinion and at best is a guesstimate. Some would say deliberately misleading.

Apart from the fact that stats show the economy is already approximately £800m a week worse off than we would have been if we’d voted to remain.

[Right_winger]

Apart from the fact that stats show the economy is already approximately £800m a week worse off than we would have been if we’d voted to remain.

Go on then let’s see these stats.

[Lancasterclaret]

http://www.cityam.com/273261/brexit-cos ... ainty-bank" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://en.businesstimes.cn/articles/107 ... ses-in.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/02/ ... -economist" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk- ... licymaker/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tudy-shows" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Right_winger]

http://www.cityam.com/273261/brexit-cos ... ainty-bank

http://en.businesstimes.cn/articles/107 ... ses-in.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/02/ ... -economist" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk- ... licymaker/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tudy-shows" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You see the problem with these reports is the use
of the words estimate and forecast. No hard facts then?

[Greenmile]

You see the problem with these reports is the use
of the words estimate and forecast. No hard facts then?

“Hard facts” like the lie which they put on the side of a bus, which you still seem to believe, inexplicably?

[Imploding Turtle]

You see the problem with these reports is the use
of the words estimate and forecast. No hard facts then?

Hard facts, like those printed on a bus and repeatedly debunked? Those kind of hard facts?

This is the problem with people like you. You prefer certainty even if it's demonstrably false over evidence-based estimates and forecasts.

[Lancasterclaret]

You know why remainers take the **** out of breixteers for blue passports and fish?

Because you ignore everything that challenges your beliefs and can't provide any evidence that backs your belief.

[Imploding Turtle]

You know why remainers take the **** out of breixteers for blue passports and fish?

Because you ignore everything that challenges your beliefs and can't provide any evidence that backs your belief.

And then they cry like babies when we mock their dumb opinions. They call us "intolerant". They accuse of of silencing them.

[LeuvenClaret]

I would say I'm suprised ....

https://inews.co.uk/news/britains-riche ... oEVPp_7b94" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Right_winger]

And then they cry like babies when we mock their dumb opinions. They call us "intolerant". They accuse of of silencing them.

No the remainders are just lying constantly over and over.

You see the problem with estimates and forecasts, i’ll Demonstrate.

I estimated that Burnley should have been on. 41 points at this point in the season. Does that mean we have lost 14 points? Or just 14 points below an estimate based on what we done last season? Can we blame Brexit for our poor start to the season? Might aswell as it gets blamed on everything else.

[Imploding Turtle]

No the remainders are just lying constantly over and over.

You see the problem with estimates and forecasts, i’ll Demonstrate.

I estimated that Burnley should have been on. 41 points at this point in the season. Does that mean we have lost 14 points? Or just 14 points below an estimate based on what we done last season? Can we blame Brexit for our poor start to the season? Might aswell as it gets blamed on everything else.

This is what happens when you think your opinion matters just as much an everyone elses. It doesn't. Estimates and forecasts for the economy are based on objective facts and figures. They are supported by science.
Your opinion that Burnley should be on 41 points is based on nothing more than your personal opinions.

Just because your estimate is unscientific and not robust doesn't mean all estimates are unscientific and not robust.

Your opinion is not equal to my facts. Get that into your head and you'll do much better in any discussion.

[Jakubclaret]

This is what happens when you think your opinion matters just as much an everyone elses. It doesn't. Estimates and forecasts for the economy are based on objective facts and figures. They are supported by science.
Your opinion that Burnley should be on 41 points is based on nothing more than your personal opinions.

Just because your estimate is unscientific and not robust doesn't mean all estimates are unscientific and not robust.

Your opinion is not equal to my facts. Get that into your head and you'll do much better in any discussion.

Facts aren't facts until we've left the EU, which isn't equal to the 30/3/19, get that into head & you'll do much better in any discussion.

[Jakubclaret]

This is what happens when you think your opinion matters just as much an everyone elses. It doesn't. Estimates and forecasts for the economy are based on objective facts and figures. They are supported by science.
Your opinion that Burnley should be on 41 points is based on nothing more than your personal opinions.

Just because your estimate is unscientific and not robust doesn't mean all estimates are unscientific and not robust.

Your opinion is not equal to my facts. Get that into your head and you'll do much better in any discussion.

It's absolutely impossible for the estimates & forecasts or "objective facts & figures" to be true facts as it's impossible at this stage to know the intricate outcome of the final deal as still in the negotiating stages, I'd try to understand at this stage it's absolutely impossible to be certain, as things will fluctuate from what we know now & what we will know on the 30/3/19, 2 different things might not be miles apart from the estimates now, but we haven't reached 30/3/19, unless marty has invented this time travelling machine as ringo eloquently puts.

[Imploding Turtle]

It's absolutely impossible for the estimates & forecasts or "objective facts & figures" to be true facts as it's impossible at this stage to know the intricate outcome of the final deal as still in the negotiating stages, I'd try to understand at this stage it's absolutely impossible to be certain, as things will fluctuate from what we know now & what we will know on the 30/3/19, 2 different things might not be miles apart from the estimates now, but we haven't reached 30/3/19, unless marty has invented this time travelling machine as ringo eloquently puts.

Estimates are BASED ON FACTS AND FIGURES.

I've put the important bit, that somehow you're struggling with, in uppercase.

[Jakubclaret]

Estimates are BASED ON FACTS AND FIGURES.

I've put the important bit, that somehow you're struggling with, in uppercase.

No estimates can be facts unless there coincidentally meet & only then you can establish that later, you can kid yourself but they aren't true facts as this particular stage.

[TVC15]

No estimates can be facts unless there coincidentally meet & only then you can establish that later, you can kid yourself but they aren't true facts as this particular stage.

Are you being deliberately stupid ?
He said “based” on facts not that estimates are facts

[Jakubclaret]

Are you being deliberately stupid ?
He said “based” on facts not that estimates are facts

Facts cannot be established before 30/3/19, i think you are the 1 being deliberately obtuse, estimates based on facts doesn't make sense, because the facts have been established before the final deal rendering the "facts" unreliable, chicken & egg scenario, True Facts can only be established on the 30/3/19 or thereafter, at the moment you've got estimates based on questionable facts, nothing more & nothing less.

[TVC15]

Facts cannot be established before 30/3/19, i think you are the 1 being deliberately obtuse, estimates based on facts doesn't make sense, because the facts have been established before the final deal rendering the "facts" unreliable, chicken & egg scenario, True Facts can only be established on the 30/3/19 or thereafter, at the moment you've got estimates based on questionable facts, nothing more & nothing less.

It’s like debating with a 6 year old.
What exactly is a questionable fact ? It’s either a fact or not.
Whether you choose to believe the estimates or not is a different matter. There is a lot more credibility in estimates based on factual and historical evidence though than some kind of gut feel

[Jakubclaret]

It’s like debating with a 6 year old.
What exactly is a questionable fact ? It’s either a fact or not.
Whether you choose to believe the estimates or not is a different matter. There is a lot more credibility in estimates based on factual and historical evidence though than some kind of gut feel

"It's like debating with a 6 year old" do you not think i feel the same way, people are saying this that & the other will happen but until something does happen it doesn't become a fact, i can lie & pretend i agree with you if you really want me to, I'm keeping a open mind at the moment & I'm not listening well i am but I'm not believing something until something happens, The true facts will emerge on the 30/3/19, the estimates based on the "facts" obtained before something hasn't even happened may tally or not.

[CombatClaret]

Facts cannot be established before 30/3/19...estimates based on facts doesn't make sense...

Jesus... The abuse of logic and basic intolerance of anyone with a shred of objective reasoning on here is mind blowing.

Unable to actually fight the numbers, experts, forecasts, data etc the tactic is to now fight a distraction war of semantics.

[martin_p]

I suspect no one has ever seen Wrongo and Jakub in the same room.

[martin_p]

Facts cannot be established before 30/3/19, i think you are the 1 being deliberately obtuse, estimates based on facts doesn't make sense, because the facts have been established before the final deal rendering the "facts" unreliable, chicken & egg scenario, True Facts can only be established on the 30/3/19 or thereafter, at the moment you've got estimates based on questionable facts, nothing more & nothing less.

Which is why forecasts typically model a range of scenarios, the outcome of which are various shades of bad.

[Jakubclaret]

Jesus... The abuse of logic and basic intolerance of anyone with a shred of objective reasoning on here is mind blowing.

Unable to actually fight the numbers, experts, forecasts, data etc the tactic is to now fight a distraction war of semantics.

No it's called being 100% & to be certain of that, the usual idea is to wait until something happens, eg - a wife/girlfriend is pregnant are you a father before the child is born, or do miscarriages (stillborns) never occur,
Too many people are kneejerk without conclusive proof.

[TVC15]

Holy sh-it...
Please don’t tell me you are contemplating putting a Jakub junior on this earth

[CombatClaret]

Too many people are kneejerk without conclusive proof.

Like undecided voters swayed by £350million, Turkey and Kettles etc?
That kind of kneejerking without proper research or proof?

[South West Claret.]

Another Social scrounging Tory Brexitee on the make at our expense!

Britain's richest man quits the UK: Billionaire Brexiteer Sir James Ratcliffe 'relocates to Monaco in a bid to save £4bn in tax'
Ratcliffe is chairman of chemicals company Ineos which has turnover of £45bn
He and two senior execs are reportedly set to benefit from tax avoidance plan
Monaco, famous for its yacht-lined harbour and casinos, is well-known tax haven
Plan could see Treasury lose out on around £400m and £4bn, should it go ahead
A prominent Brexiteer and Britain's richest man, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, is set to quit the United Kingdom in a bid to save billions in tax, it has been reported.

The 66-year-old, who was knighted less than a year ago for his services to business and investment, is reportedly planning to save up to £4bn with a move to Monaco.

The country - famous for its yacht-lined harbour, upscale casinos and the prestigious Grand Prix motor race - is a well-known tax haven.

And Ratcliffe has been working with PwC on a tax avoidance plan, which could also benefit two senior executives at his chemicals company Ineos.

That's according to The Sunday Times, which has claimed that Ratcliffe, Andy Currie and John Reece cold all legally share between £1bn and £10bn of tax-free cash.

Should the plan go ahead, it could deprive the Treasury of between £400m and £4bn - a move which a source at the newspaper labelled 'egregious', should the upper end be chosen.

[Paul Waine]

Thanks, martin. That's good info. So, no big fall in growth in the year after Jun-2016 and then bigger fall in the following year - and 4.4% forecast v 4.9% actual over the period. I think it's reasonable to think that the nature of the Brexit debate, particularly into the second year will have slowed things down in the UK - more uncertainty, less investment, less spending, more saving, more caution - we should all expect that. I wonder if the models can isolate the impact of Trump-China trade wars for the second year - which is also slowing down the economies in the EU?

If I was running any of these models I wouldn't be sitting on my laurels and saying that we were mostly getting it right and forecasting reasonably accurately. I'd be saying let's keep working on our understanding of the economy and aiming for continuous improvement.

Meanwhile, I'd also step up efforts to get the media to understand and report what our models are and aren't telling us.

Hi guys, I've not "lost it" - I'm not really "replying to myself."

I see we are discussing forecasts and estimates and all that stuff again. Take a look back to Saturday on this thread. martin_p and I had a good discussion around this area - what I've posted above was a little part of the debate.

We should all understand that forecasts are not facts and the "science" of a economic model is not science as in sending rockets to the moon or mars - or even knowing how much carbon is released into the atmosphere from burning one type of fossil fuel versus another. Economic models are a lot less certain, they are "social science" and they depend on a great number of assumptions that can be right or wrong or right for another time, but not right on this occasion. Most experienced forecasters know and are honest in revealing that they know that the truth of forecasts is that they are invariably wrong.

Thus, anyone "praying" a forecast as "evidence" is not dealing with evidence at all.

And, let's not forget it's the earth rotating around the sun and not the "sun rising in the east" - if we really want to speak about facts and science and such.

[Paul Waine]

Sir James Ratcliffe relocating to Monaco. I doubt this is to do with Brexit - though can anyone explain the arrangements between Monaco and the EU?

I''d guess it's a defensive response to the risk of Corbyn and McDonnell getting their hands on the UK economy. Some would cite this as an example of the laffer curve.

[martin_p]

Hi guys, I've not "lost it" - I'm not really "replying to myself."

I see we are discussing forecasts and estimates and all that stuff again. Take a look back to Saturday on this thread. martin_p and I had a good discussion around this area - what I've posted above was a little part of the debate.

We should all understand that forecasts are not facts and the "science" of a economic model is not science as in sending rockets to the moon or mars - or even knowing how much carbon is released into the atmosphere from burning one type of fossil fuel versus another. Economic models are a lot less certain, they are "social science" and they depend on a great number of assumptions that can be right or wrong or right for another time, but not right on this occasion. Most experienced forecasters know and are honest in revealing that they know that the truth of forecasts is that they are invariably wrong.

Thus, anyone "praying" a forecast as "evidence" is not dealing with evidence at all.

And, let's not forget it's the earth rotating around the sun and not the "sun rising in the east" - if we really want to speak about facts and science and such.

But as I’ve said in reply to someone else, they don’t use a single set of assumptions they use a range covering different scenarios. But even the most optimistic scenarios covered show the economy taking a hit. The trouble with forecasts is the way they are reported in the media. They tend to keep it simple and look for the big headline for usually go for the worst case presented. Some of the more responsible media outlets do at least link the original reports in their online reporting allowing those interested to delve deeper. Trouble is most people are happy enough to look at the headline, accept it as being all the report had to say, and investigate no further.

[Greenmile]

Ironic that Paul follows a post essentially saying economic forecasts aren’t evidence (I think folk were arguing that they are based on evidence, but never mind) with one citing the widely discredited laffer curve, which evidence has shown to be nonsense.

[elwaclaret]

I do find it strange that so many seem so determined to stay in an organization that is looking increasingly at threat, what with nationalist agendas looking increasingly likely to sweep the European elections shortly after we're supposed to leave. Who can even say what we are in fact fighting to leave or indeed remain part of? Remaining seems like it would be almost as much a leap of faith as any compromise if not no deal, France especially looks like years of turmoil are likely to result, whatever the result.

[Lancasterclaret]

That a big stretch what you are claiming there Elwa.

Care to back it up with facts (or at the very least, the latest polling results)?

[Paul Waine]

Ironic that Paul follows a post essentially saying economic forecasts aren’t evidence (I think folk were arguing that they are based on evidence, but never mind) with one citing the widely discredited laffer curve, which evidence has shown to be nonsense.

Wealthy person decides to take action which will reduce his tax bill - isn't that what Laffer was describing when he said that push the tax rates too high the authorities will collect less tax?

I think the guys who "showed that the Laffer curve is nonsense" were making assumptions that don't hold true in the real world.

[elwaclaret]

That a big stretch what you are claiming there Elwa.

Care to back it up with facts (or at the very least, the latest polling results)?

Not more than a general observation from general chats with a political author who happens to be my history lecturer at uni TBH Lancaster. Been discussing the situation in France quite a bit as context against the French Revolutions and the rise of Le Emperor... there is certainly a whiff of history repeating, apparently its more media blackout than lack of news at the moment. Some serious commentators have concerns about European politics next direction that they are choosing not to air for their own reasons...

[Paul Waine]

But as I’ve said in reply to someone else, they don’t use a single set of assumptions they use a range covering different scenarios. But even the most optimistic scenarios covered show the economy taking a hit. The trouble with forecasts is the way they are reported in the media. They tend to keep it simple and look for the big headline for usually go for the worst case presented. Some of the more responsible media outlets do at least link the original reports in their online reporting allowing those interested to delve deeper. Trouble is most people are happy enough to look at the headline, accept it as being all the report had to say, and investigate no further.

Hi martin, you and I know that what you say is true.

I've no problem that "even the most optimistic scenarios covered showed the economy taking a hit." That's not the issue - "even the most optimistic" assumes that we all know what are the"optimistic" assumptions and what are "less optimistic." I'm pretty sure that what the models show us - along with the assumptions used - is we don't know enough about how economies operate and what the outcomes will be for different changes in economic circumstances.

Agree, 100% with you on the media reporting.

[Jakubclaret]

Not more than a general observation from general chats with a political author who happens to be my history lecturer at uni TBH Lancaster. Been discussing the situation in France quite a bit as context against the French Revolutions and the rise of Le Emperor... there is certainly a whiff of history repeating, apparently its more media blackout than lack of news at the moment. Some serious commentators have concerns about European politics next direction that they are choosing not to air for their own reasons...

https://pollofpolls.eu/FR/53/european-p ... -in-france" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Paul Waine]

Ironic that Paul follows a post essentially saying economic forecasts aren’t evidence (I think folk were arguing that they are based on evidence, but never mind) with one citing the widely discredited laffer curve, which evidence has shown to be nonsense.

Hi Greenmile, sorry, I missed my comment on the first part of your response.

Were people arguing that forecasts are "based on evidence?" What was that "evidence" - econometric data from past events? Or, models that include assumptions (that aren't themselves facts of past events) that result in various forecasts? The data from past events says nothing about future events, so it can't have been that. As martin posts, a range of scenarios are developed using a number of assumptions. So, the outcome of the model is derived from, let's call them "qualitative choices." Again, that's not "evidence" in the way that several posters appear to believe.

[elwaclaret]

https://pollofpolls.eu/FR/53/european-p ... -in-france

Yes pretty much marries up to how I understand it. Also, much of the protests over there are getting the same level of coverage as the weekly marches (for whatever cause) in London generally get nationally here.

France it seems is in one hell of a mess.

[Jakubclaret]

Yes pretty much marries up to how I understand it. Also, much of the protests over there are getting the same level of coverage as the weekly marches (for whatever cause) in London generally get nationally here.

France it seems is in one hell of a mess.

I know I’ve got family out there, returning to the UK shortly.

[martin_p]

I'm pretty sure that what the models show us - along with the assumptions used - is we don't know enough about how economies operate and what the outcomes will be for different changes in economic circumstances.

On what basis are you making that statement? We’re not talking the mysteries of the universe here, economies are a man made thing.

[elwaclaret]

Another thing I find surprising as an interested observer rather than an enthusiastic participant in Brexit disputes is how many Labourites seem to be so pro remain. JC's basic problem is he can't be a federalist and a socialist at the same time. The EU prevents many of the major ideological ambitions of traditional Labour, so it is rather surprising just how pro-remain the party as a whole are.

[martin_p]

The EU prevents many of the major ideological ambitions of traditional Labour

Such as?

[CrosspoolClarets]

Such as?

https://m.socialistparty.org.uk/article ... ave-the-eu

I don’t particularly agree with all this but it answers the question robustly.

[martin_p]

https://m.socialistparty.org.uk/article ... ave-the-eu

I don’t particularly agree with all this but it answers the question robustly.

You’re right it does:

‘Are you saying that - unless we leave the EU - it will never be possible to implement socialist policies in Britain?

No, of course not. The Socialist Party opposes the EU because of its laws and institutions but they could not stop a determined workers' government supported by a mass movement from carrying out socialist policies. However, they are another hurdle to overcome, with real consequences for the day-to-day struggles to defend working class interests.’

[Lancasterclaret]

Right, so opinion pieces and a personal opinion.

Polls don't share that btw

[Paul Waine]

On what basis are you making that statement? We’re not talking the mysteries of the universe here, economies are a man made thing.

Hi martin, economics is the study of the interaction of people in "economic" ways. But, there's no "science" to those interactions, just "social science." So, there's no certainty that the exact same facts on one occasion will result in the exact same outcomes in a second identical situation. What is rational for many can also be irrational for some. Things change, fashions change, opinions change. Economists use the phrase ceteris paribus, all other things being equal, to demonstrate a proposition. But, when we are building an econometric model the maths cannot handle all the real variability in the real world - a model is, after all, an attempt to mathematically simplify and represent reality. If the model did capture (and, none of them do) all the variables in a historic occasion, it is still impossible to know that the model can with any degree of accuracy forecast the outcomes in the future. That's why, and i'm sure you understand this, scenarios are used to "paint pictures" of the future under an imagined set of theoretical outcomes.

It's late. Let me know if what I've written makes any sense.

[Imploding Turtle]

I can’t see IT’s reply because like Greenmile I block them, but in general, can anyone dispute that this list of things is true (it would have saved a lot of back and forth over recent times if these were accepted):

• 1. That Leave accepted during the campaign there could be an economic dip, before a longer term surge
  2. That people do regularly vote to make themselves poorer by voting for non economic things too
  3. That Dan Hannan has consistently proposed staying in the Single Market, but NOT a Customs Union (Norway not Norway Plus)

It strikes me that all things help the Remain (or softer Brexit) argument yet Remainers still dismiss them as being untrue, inconsistent or exaggerated. All very odd. I simply thought it was a good article.

(Lancs, my hysteria comment followed you, not for the first time, calling me a liar, something I haven’t done since primary school. Paul was absolutely right and if you open your mind you may learn something - I have learned plenty on these threads which is why I sometimes post on them, on Friday I accepted to Paul that I had never heard of the New Zealand difficulties caused by us joing the EEC for example. I don’t expect to convince you that Leave is right, but you have started to play the man rather than debate the argument, even when the argument is a solid one. My above post is a case in point which appears to have triggered another bout of Remainer hysteria).

He's blocked me because he's a coward who doesn't like it when his nonsense gets challenged, so would one of you fine people like to share this image with him?