Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[Devils_Advocate]

Wonder if we'll get a tearful speech like that from Ringo when Article 50 is finally revoked

[martin_p]

Good job she's not a world leader then!

Going down as the worst PM for decades isn't going to anyone emotional state any good

She'll go down as the PM who had one thing to do and failed to do it.

[Lancasterclaret]

She'll go down as the PM who had one thing to do and failed to do it.

Oh I don't know, Putin and his ilk are well impressed with her work.

[Tall Paul]

Can't help but think she's missed an opportunity here. If she'd made it a week earlier it would have been the end of May.

I'll get my coat.

[Lancasterclaret]

Can't help but think she's missed an opportunity here. If she'd made it a week earlier it would have been the end of May.

I'll get my coat.

Do you know why she's picked the 7th of June.

Means she lasted one day more than Gordon Brown.

Thats the calibre of PM we've had for three years.

[tiger76]

6 weeks for a leadership contest,and still the same parliamentary stalemate will exist,the EU must be scratching their heads why they granted an extension.

What part of don't waste this time does Westminster not understand,my best guess Boris is PM he calls a snap election and we end up with either a no deal (which is bad) or a 2nd referendum,which will likely produce a narrow majority for remain,however the arguments will rumble on as the country will still be divided virtually 50/50.

Listening to QT last night and much of the current travails can be placed at David Cameron's door,he agreed a referendum in the Conservative manifesto,but had no idea how to implement any leave victory.

Either he was arrogant,incompetent or both,he quickly run for the hills once the result was known,as did Farage among others.

[martin_p]

So that’s the Brexit can kicked down the road for however many weeks a Tory leadership contest takes then. The amount of time the government have wasted in this process is astounding.

[nil_desperandum]

Good job she's not a world leader then!

Going down as the worst PM for decades isn't going to anyone emotional state any good

Not worse than Cameron. He created this debacle, and as a country we are ruined for years irrespective of whether we do a deal, leave with nothing or remain.
She picked up his legacy, (it was an almost impossible job), but I can't defend her because she applied for the job, she wasn't forced into it. Of course, she probably assumed that she would have much greater support and loyalty from her own MPs, but she couldn't command their respect or lead them in any direction.
It will be really interesting to see how it pans out now. It will be a nasty divisive leadership campaign I suspect, and I really can't see Johnson being able to unite the MPs, if he is elected by the general membership.

[tiger76]

Wonder if we'll get a tearful speech like that from Ringo when Article 50 is finally revoked

Revocation is definitely an option,would be risky for the sitting government,but if the alternative is crashing out with a no deal,i suspect the former will prevail.

[nil_desperandum]

Do you know why she's picked the 7th of June.

Means she lasted one day more than Gordon Brown.

Thats the calibre of PM we've had for three years.

I don't think that's correct. She will no longer be leader of the Tory Party, but she will continue be PM until her successor is chosen. That's what she said, but you can't guarantee anything nowadays, and it's still possible they will put a caretaker PM in post to try to get things moving.

[Lancasterclaret]

One thing all the political commentators have been saying is that until the Conservative leader starts being truthful to the UK about what the consequences are of all the possible decisions, then the same problems will remain.

We've had three years on here of very intelligent posters tying themselves in knots as they have moved from "sunlit uplands" to "well, we voted for it to be ****" and that does no-one (and the country) no good at all.

For the record, my passport runs out in 2026 and unless we get something sorted, I fully expect to have a passport that says "Citizen of the Kingdom of England" and that would be absolutely heartbreaking.

[martin_p]

Not worse than Cameron. He created this debacle, and as a country we are ruined for years irrespective of whether we do a deal, leave with nothing or remain.
She picked up his legacy, (it was an almost impossible job), but I can't defend her because she applied for the job, she wasn't forced into it. Of course, she probably assumed that she would have much greater support and loyalty from her own MPs, but she couldn't command their respect or lead them in any direction.
It will be really interesting to see how it pans out now. It will be a nasty divisive leadership campaign I suspect, and I really can't see Johnson being able to unite the MPs, if he is elected by the general membership.

She could probably have delivered Brexit if it wasn’t for the disastrous general election she called. Once she lost her majority she was in the hands of Jacob Rees-Mogg and the DUP and all chances of a sensible compromise disappeared.

[Lancasterclaret]

And its now realistically, No Deal or No Brexit.

[martin_p]

And its now realistically, No Deal or No Brexit.

If we get a Brexiteer as PM that's about the size of it. And unless there's a significant change in parliament we know that no deal doesn't have the support it needs to get through which will inevitably lead to a legally binding no deal v remain referendum.

[RingoMcCartney]

Got to be quick. Busy busy man.


Listened to LBC for May's speech.

I'm staggered by the sheer bewilderment, the clear distress , the anxiety and the palpable heartbreak I heard.











Anyway, enough about James Obrian!!!!!!!!!

[dsr]

For the record, my passport runs out in 2026 and unless we get something sorted, I fully expect to have a passport that says "Citizen of the Kingdom of England" and that would be absolutely heartbreaking.

Why would that be? For years, you have been talking about the Brexit vote on the basis that finance is all and that we will be financially worse off and the right wing has voted the wrong way.

Well, in Scotland the nationalists are left wing, and will presumably tend towards thinking your way - that finance is the most important thing. Would they vote for leaving the UK and rejoining the EU, knowing that there will have to be a hard border with England and the vast majority of their trade will be subject to WTO tariffs? If they do, they would be stupider than you think the English are.

[dsr]

If we get a Brexiteer as PM that's about the size of it. And unless there's a significant change in parliament we know that no deal doesn't have the support it needs to get through which will inevitably lead to a legally binding no deal v remain referendum.

No deal doesn't technically need House of Commons support to get through. We leave on October 31st (I think) unless something changes. Would Remain get the support to get through? Knowing that it would almost certainly mean a general election and likelihood of conservatives losing their seats in droves? Depends on the DUP, I suppose.

[Lancasterclaret]

Why would that be? For years, you have been talking about the Brexit vote on the basis that finance is all and that we will be financially worse off and the right wing has voted the wrong way.

Well, in Scotland the nationalists are left wing, and will presumably tend towards thinking your way - that finance is the most important thing. Would they vote for leaving the UK and rejoining the EU, knowing that there will have to be a hard border with England and the vast majority of their trade will be subject to WTO tariffs? If they do, they would be stupider than you think the English are.

I don't even pretend to understand the motives of nationalists.

You voted UKIP, so you'll know a lot more about that than me.

[martin_p]

No deal doesn't technically need House of Commons support to get through. We leave on October 31st (I think) unless something changes. Would Remain get the support to get through? Knowing that it would almost certainly mean a general election and likelihood of conservatives losing their seats in droves? Depends on the DUP, I suppose.

Well yes that’s correct from a technical point of view, but you saw how the HoC was prepared to take the reigns the last time it looked like we might be heading towards no deal and forced May to ask for an extension. The numbers haven’t changed so that’s likely to happen again. The difference this time is that if we have a PM who isn’t even seeking a deal the HoC may force a referendum as well as the only way forward.

All speculation of course

[Lancasterclaret]

A polite request for the likes of Dsr

Read this thread by Peter Foster of the Daily Telegraph.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 0759229440" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is reality

[AndrewJB]

Oh yes. That's one of the great ironies. This really isn't 'Germany's EU' - it's ours. No other country did more towards steering the EU into what it is today than the UK. It used to be very socialist. And now, having ruined the EU for everyone else, we're sacking it off!

This isn't me attempting to win you over, but merely completing the circle, so to speak. If we have been a major neo liberal influence on the EU, we also have the potential to push for reform in the other direction. This is (I think) how Corbyn came to his position of wanting to remain, and reform from within. Attempting to reform from outside of it could be a lot more difficult.

This is why some on the right of the spectrum are so eager to see us leave the EU without a deal. It gives them free reign over what Britain will look like in the future, and this side of politics has a long history of using turbulent economic times to advocate their position with greater vigour (they usually frame the debate as the only possible solution; "we don't want to do this (reducing environmental standards and workers' rights and re-introducing the workhouse and slavery), but it is the only way to make Britain competitive again in these chaotic times"). Never mind the fact they've helped to cause the crisis, and those who question exactly how reducing taxation on the rich while making the lives of ordinary people a lot crapper is going to improve things, are dismissed as "commies"

It could be argued that those on the left would also have a massive opportunity to remake Britain after a no deal exit, however I'd fear that attempting to make such changes during a time of economic instability would make such a government shortlived, and replaced by a very right wing one.

[dsr]

A polite request for the likes of Dsr

Read this thread by Peter Foster of the Daily Telegraph.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/11 ... 0759229440" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is reality

I've read it.

But why does the Irish border question make such an impact? Every time anyone in Northern Ireland exports to the Republic, and vice versa, they have to fill in different paperwork from domestic sales. After Brexit, it will be a different set of different paperwork. So what? The border question is just a matter of making sure on both sides that the correct duty is being paid and that physical smuggling is minimised. The question is an administrative one as to how effective electronic and camera controls can be without actually building a wall; the UK reckons it can be done. The Irish government reckons it can be done. So just eliminate it from the deal.

Which of course still leaves is with a rotten deal, and IMO we would be better just leaving, no deal, and then continue negotiations.

[Lancasterclaret]

Making points on here does not change reality, dsr

It just doesn't

[dsr]

Making points on here does not change reality, dsr

It just doesn't

But reality is that both governments say they can manage hard Brexit without a hard border. So why not do it?

[Lancasterclaret]

You want a hard Brexit.

You will ignore reality to insist its possible.

We've all been here before.

[nil_desperandum]

But reality is that both governments say they can manage hard Brexit without a hard border. So why not do it?

Maybe because the WTO rules that Farage wants require us to have a border?

[RingoMcCartney]

James Obrian reduced to calling caller, live on national radio, "a cretin". Why? The caller had a different world view to his. He really is an unhappy ickle metropolitan bubble dwelling bunny this morning isn't he!

Comedy Gold!

The liberal left- Claim to LOVE diversity.






HATE diversity of opinion.

[Bordeauxclaret]

He’s still triggering you I see. Good good.

[nil_desperandum]

James Obrian reduced to calling caller, live on national radio, "a cretin". Why? The caller had a different world view to his. He really is an unhappy ickle metropolitan bubble dwelling bunny this morning isn't he!
.

Why do you continually listen to his programme when you don't share his views? He doesn't claim to be impartial on the subject.
It would be just like me choosing to listen to Farage's slot on that radio station and then complain afterwards that he was biased towards brexit.

[dsr]

Maybe because the WTO rules that Farage wants require us to have a border?

And we will have a border, just like we have now. WTO rules require us to have sufficient procedures to control the border. They have no opinion whether that has to be a wall or not.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

And its now realistically, No Deal or No Brexit.

No deal isn't an option, that'll be made clear to the next Tory leader soon enough, it'll be a deal, an extension or no Brexit.

Eventually it'll be no Brexit, just like it was always going to be.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

May was undone by the factions in her party, the next leader will also suffer the same fate, especially one who tries to tout the impossible no-deal scenario.

It'll end up being a general election on which Labour will campaign for a Brexit deal with a customs union and a people's vote with an option to remain.

They'll win, remain will win the people's vote and Brexit will be scrapped, as it was always going to be.

The intelligent, fixing the mistakes of the stupid. Now and forever.

[dsr]

May was undone by the factions in her party, the next leader will also suffer the same fate, especially one who tries to tout the impossible no-deal scenario.

It'll end up being a general election on which Labour will campaign for a Brexit deal with a customs union and a people's vote with an option to remain.

They'll win, remain will win the people's vote and Brexit will be scrapped, as it was always going to be.

The intelligent, fixing the mistakes of the stupid. Now and forever.

It wouldn't be as successful as you think. The 52% who are being told they are stupid so their votes don't count, and that they are not people so we'll have a vote of those who are, will not automatically accept what their self-appointed "lords and masters" tell them.

Any future Tory leader who tries to tout a May-deal or worse, or a don-t-leave, will get 20% and less at the general election, because the Brexit party voters won't come back in droves. May has been so incompetent as to polarize the party which was predominatley Leave; if they stay a Remain party, the Leavers won't come back. Even the Remainers in the party won't be daft enough to go for that one. Surely?

[Lancasterclaret]

It wouldn't be as successful as you think. The 52% who are being told they are stupid so their votes don't count, and that they are not people so we'll have a vote of those who are, will not automatically accept what their self-appointed "lords and masters" tell them.

Any future Tory leader who tries to tout a May-deal or worse, or a don-t-leave, will get 20% and less at the general election, because the Brexit party voters won't come back in droves. May has been so incompetent as to polarize the party which was predominatley Leave; if they stay a Remain party, the Leavers won't come back. Even the Remainers in the party won't be daft enough to go for that one. Surely?

They have spent three years telling you that this is the compromise.

You rejected it, they rejected it.

Unless all the crap that hasn't been true for the past three years suddenly becomes true when a Brexiteer takes over (lets be honest here, its not going to be) then we are still in the same position, with the same problem and people like yourself unable to accept that the dream Brexit won't happen.

I thought mays deal was the best available under the circumstances, and it was crap.

But it was better than the alternatives.

And everytime someones goes on about WTO followed by FTA, it just reinforces that.

There is no FTA with the EU without the withdrawal bill.

Get that passed, or stop Brexit.

Thats the reality.

[dsr]

They have spent three years telling you that this is the compromise.

You rejected it, they rejected it.

Unless all the crap that hasn't been true for the past three years suddenly becomes true when a Brexiteer takes over (lets be honest here, its not going to be) then we are still in the same position, with the same problem and people like yourself unable to accept that the dream Brexit won't happen.

I thought mays deal was the best available under the circumstances, and it was crap.

But it was better than the alternatives.

And everytime someones goes on about WTO followed by FTA, it just reinforces that.

There is no FTA with the EU without the withdrawal bill.

Get that passed, or stop Brexit.

Thats the reality.

Everybody rejected it. Large number of Tory MPs defied 3-line whips to reject the deal; the DUP rejected it, as would Sinn Fein have if they could be bothered to turn up; Labour rejected it, Liberals rejected it, SNP and Plaid Cymru rejected it, Greens rejected it. Everybody is agreed - this deal is rubbish.

I agree that the EU won't sign a free trade deal. The EU places its supranational authority as being more important than the wealth of the nations, so they won't agree a mutually beneficial deal. So be it. The UK will trade as normal and will hopefully have the competence to use the double dividend of no contributions to the EU, plus duty received on imports, to make tax cuts that will offset the financial effects; obviously helped by the exchange rate movements which have been in favour of exports.

For some of us, including the EU, it isn't all about money. The great god money may be relevant, but it isn't the only thing that is relevant. It's the one view that Brexit supporters have in common with the EU.

[CombatClaret]

James Obrian reduced to calling caller, live on national radio, "a cretin". Why? The caller had a different world view to his. He really is an unhappy ickle metropolitan bubble dwelling bunny this morning isn't he!
Comedy Gold!
The liberal left- Claim to LOVE diversity.
HATE diversity of opinion.

James O'Brien: " "What you've said in the space of this conversation Stuart is on the one hand you've said we should have definitely left on WTO terms.
And then you said in the same breath that we should have threatened to leave on WTO terms and that would have made them do our bidding.
Do you see why they can't both be true?"

Caller: "You've got it, you've finally understood what I said."

That's why the caller got called a cretin. Because he espoused two contradictory and mutual exclusive paths

[Juxtaposition]

How come whenever the left argues against something from the right you have idiots going around complaining that the act of opposing someone's world view means they hate diversity of opinion? How stupid do you have to be to even accuse people of that?

[Lancasterclaret]

Everybody rejected it. Large number of Tory MPs defied 3-line whips to reject the deal; the DUP rejected it, as would Sinn Fein have if they could be bothered to turn up; Labour rejected it, Liberals rejected it, SNP and Plaid Cymru rejected it, Greens rejected it. Everybody is agreed - this deal is rubbish.

I agree that the EU won't sign a free trade deal. The EU places its supranational authority as being more important than the wealth of the nations, so they won't agree a mutually beneficial deal. So be it. The UK will trade as normal and will hopefully have the competence to use the double dividend of no contributions to the EU, plus duty received on imports, to make tax cuts that will offset the financial effects; obviously helped by the exchange rate movements which have been in favour of exports.

For some of us, including the EU, it isn't all about money. The great god money may be relevant, but it isn't the only thing that is relevant. It's the one view that Brexit supporters have in common with the EU.

Its amazing just how unimportant money is when you have enough of it to live on isn't it?

[Lancasterclaret]

No Deal explained over an hour with an actual trade expert

https://audioboom.com/posts/7269056-voy ... ozoubinski" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[dsr]

Its amazing just how unimportant money is when you have enough of it to live on isn't it?

And Britain does.

You've said yourself that you expect Scotland to vote to leave the UK, and their financial hit would be vastly higher than ours. I'm not the only one who thinks there's more to life than money.

[Lancasterclaret]

Again, you have enough to say that comfortably.

I can't remember now, but weren't you one of those who reckons people are abusing food banks?

[dsr]

Again, you have enough to say that comfortably.

I can't remember now, but weren't you one of those who reckons people are abusing food banks?

No. I'm one of those who reckons that the reason there is more use of food banks than there used to be is because food banks are more available and that the social stigma has gone.

The financial hit from leaving the EU will not be as bad as the doom-mongers make out. For one thing, the exchange rate has gone down - this means our exports post-Brexit will be no more expensive than they were before the vote. For another, we get the double financial boost of no payments to the EU, and duty received on imports. Import prices rise? Well, I've never been convinced that running a huge balance of payments deficit is good for the country. Nor, historically, have been most economists, for that matter, but it seems to be fashionable at the moment.

[AndrewJB]

Everybody rejected it. Large number of Tory MPs defied 3-line whips to reject the deal; the DUP rejected it, as would Sinn Fein have if they could be bothered to turn up; Labour rejected it, Liberals rejected it, SNP and Plaid Cymru rejected it, Greens rejected it. Everybody is agreed - this deal is rubbish.

I agree that the EU won't sign a free trade deal. The EU places its supranational authority as being more important than the wealth of the nations, so they won't agree a mutually beneficial deal. So be it. The UK will trade as normal and will hopefully have the competence to use the double dividend of no contributions to the EU, plus duty received on imports, to make tax cuts that will offset the financial effects; obviously helped by the exchange rate movements which have been in favour of exports.

For some of us, including the EU, it isn't all about money. The great god money may be relevant, but it isn't the only thing that is relevant. It's the one view that Brexit supporters have in common with the EU.

The EU put forward some ideas as to how the UK could move forward after withdrawing (the kind of trade arrangements we could have afterwards, along with what the EU would expect of the UK in return). One alternative is in fact the easiest free trade deal in history, because it involves remaining in the single market and customs union. To secure this we have to keep free movement - which is hardly a major compromise. This would ensure there's no border issue with Ireland, and minimise economic disruption, and we'd be out of the EU. This is in my opinion the most sensible way to honour the referendum result, and it holds the door open to us one day leaving the customs union and single market and going it alone (perhaps when that elusive technology for the border has been discovered).

I know this won't be music to the ears of many brexit supporters, but then leaving with no deal at all is probably less palatable to a great many more people. So a compromise has to be found - and this would be mine. What would be yours?

[Lancasterclaret]

No. I'm one of those who reckons that the reason there is more use of food banks than there used to be is because food banks are more available and that the social stigma has gone.

The financial hit from leaving the EU will not be as bad as the doom-mongers make out. For one thing, the exchange rate has gone down - this means our exports post-Brexit will be no more expensive than they were before the vote. For another, we get the double financial boost of no payments to the EU, and duty received on imports. Import prices rise? Well, I've never been convinced that running a huge balance of payments deficit is good for the country. Nor, historically, have been most economists, for that matter, but it seems to be fashionable at the moment.

Ah. not that they are needed.

Sound, glad that is sorted.

You need to remember that you've been saying this stuff for three years and you lost the debate quite some time ago. Where we are now is that we have to follow through the result of the referendum or the far right take over and damn the consequences.

Thats not a great place to be, or a sensible idea to follow under any circumstances.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

We voted to leave so lets just do that!

Not happening, as two ex-Tory Prime Minsters can tell you.

So far it's...

Remain 2

Leave 0

[dsr]

Ah. not that they are needed.

Sound, glad that is sorted.

You need to remember that you've been saying this stuff for three years and you lost the debate quite some time ago. Where we are now is that we have to follow through the result of the referendum or the far right take over and damn the consequences.

Thats not a great place to be, or a sensible idea to follow under any circumstances.

Lost the debate, maybe. There's no doubt that the majority of economists think leaving is bad for the economy.

But as economists have a success rate of about 50% in binary questions, I'm not fussed. ERM, anyone?

[dsr]

The EU put forward some ideas as to how the UK could move forward after withdrawing (the kind of trade arrangements we could have afterwards, along with what the EU would expect of the UK in return). One alternative is in fact the easiest free trade deal in history, because it involves remaining in the single market and customs union. To secure this we have to keep free movement - which is hardly a major compromise. This would ensure there's no border issue with Ireland, and minimise economic disruption, and we'd be out of the EU. This is in my opinion the most sensible way to honour the referendum result, and it holds the door open to us one day leaving the customs union and single market and going it alone (perhaps when that elusive technology for the border has been discovered).

I know this won't be music to the ears of many brexit supporters, but then leaving with no deal at all is probably less palatable to a great many more people. So a compromise has to be found - and this would be mine. What would be yours?

Your "compromise" would keep us under EU control and keep paying the money to the EU but abdicating from the decision making process. All we would be giving up would be the Euro MPs, and the name. To use the EU golf club analogy, it would be like paying the same annual subs but being denied the right to attend the AGM. That's no compromise.

[Lancasterclaret]

Lost the debate, maybe. There's no doubt that the majority of economists think leaving is bad for the economy.

But as economists have a success rate of about 50% in binary questions, I'm not fussed. ERM, anyone?

I'd trust you on this stuff 100% ahead of Ringo!

But before we all get carried away, I trust the vast majority of economists opinion over yours, because they are looking at it a lot more objectively.

I know that everybody has an angle and I'm willing to accept that the status quo looks a safer option but so many of them say its the best, and very few say it isn't. Very risky options are not a good idea with a nations trade and economy.

I'm listening to the podcast I highlighted above on trade, and its stuff that you really need to listen to btw.

[summitclaret]

At last GE Labour's majority was down to less than 4000 in burnley. Imagine if the Tories had a deal with the Brexit party where the latter only put up candidates in seats the Tories can never win. Also what if this deal included the Brexit party not putting up candidates where the tory was a clear brexiteer.

The compromise would be that we want a free trade deal but are prepared to go out in a planne way if the EU won't be reasonable.

[Lancasterclaret]

Again summitt, the podcast above is well worth a listen.