Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[RingoMcCartney]

Wankcasterclaret?

ThatblokewhoisrightmoreoftenthanIam?

Shitthatladknowshisstuff?

I quite like the first one!

Thatblokewhoboastedhehadtheunfortunatehabitof
beingrightmostofthetime, would be a far more accurate and fact based suggestion.

Anyway, rather than making up ego massaging names for yourself. How about you answer my question-

Given the party you plan to vote for said they be prepared to tear up Article 50 and stop Brexit without a referendum. How would you feel if a new government, with a manifesto to do so, took us out of the European union without a referendum?

[RingoMcCartney]

Reading this mornings interaction between Paul Wain and the resident remoaners, was like watching Messi toying with a gaggle of over weight pub team donkeys up Townley!


They never got a sniff of the ball!

[Bordeauxclaret]

Love this, from the day Johnson got the PM job.

Anyway, how are we all celebrating Brexit Day on Thursday?

All round to Ringos for a Special Brew Party?
Only one rule, you have to sing ‘Rule Britannia’ until you pass out.

[Lancasterclaret]

Reading this mornings interaction between Paul Wain and the resident remoaners, was like watching Messi toying with a gaggle of over weight pub team donkeys up Townley!


They never got a sniff of the ball!

Friday Ringo is defo the best Ringo

[RingoMcCartney]

Firstly can I say that I love how it looks like you’ve posted this without any context?

I appreciate that’s just down to how the quote function works though, so it seems like you’re saying it’s perfectly acceptable to lie if you’re talking to a politician on a national broadcast,but not if you’re speaking to some halfwit on the internet.


(I’m not accepting your assertion that Martin lied or made anything up, btw, just taking your argument to its logical conclusion)

I tell people who produce radio programs what they want to hear. I've tried being more straight forward and it simply doesn't work. You have to play the game to get your point over.

But I think its deeply unfair and totally inaccurate to refer to Marty as " some halfwit on the internet "

Why give the quarterwit an undeserved promotion!!!!!!!!???

[RingoMcCartney]

Friday Ringo is defo the best Ringo

The answer swerving Lancasterclaret is the silliest looking of all!

[claret_in_exile]

You’d be looking at 3 referendums if remain won, & they will be likely thousands of people (elderly) who have died since 2016 who didn’t live long enough to see there vote honoured & the younger generation who are more pro remain & didn't vote in the first one now would be eligible to vote, it’d be morally wrong & disrespectful to 1s that have passed away.

Votes don't work like that, though. The same (if not more compelling) argument could be made for new voters who have to live with the consequences of the deceased's vote.

[Greenmile]

I tell people who produce radio programs what they want to hear...

You mean you lie to them, and to the folk on the radio show (presenters, politicians etc).

For some reason, though, you think this is ok, yet “making stuff up” when talking to a halfwit on a messageboard is somehow unacceptable (again, I’m not accepting your assertion that Martin did this in the first place)

I don’t expect you to see the hypocrisy in this approach - I’m just pointing it out to other folk who may be reading in.

[claret_in_exile]

1) it's been shown there is no one will of the people many wills of groups of people all lumped into one. This next referendum is the one which should have taken place in the first place, with a deal, everyone can read and scrutinize, no promises that can be broken. Ink on a page, vote for it or don't.

2) The above second referendum solves your second point, the deadlock in parliament is predominately about HOW we leave, which was not on the ballot. But now with this deal, it can be. So if Leave wins with this deal, we know exactly HOW people want to leave and parliament can move to implement it with absolute clarity.
While I would not agree with it I would 100% back the implementation of the deal if it won as the way it came about (ie a majority vote for the specific deal) would be clear and unequivocal.

Great post. With regards your first point, though, why would the UK and the EU sit down and bash out a deal unless there was a public vote to leave. It would be an exercise in futility, should the public vote to remain, after all.

And the problem with your second point would still be how to honour the will of the people in the first vote. Let's say that the second referendum resulting in a small majority voting against the deal: the Remainers would interpret that as the people no longer wanting Brexit, but the Leavers would interpret it as the people still wanting Brexit - just not THAT particular Brexit. It would be chaos.

[Jakubclaret]

Votes don't work like that, though. The same (if not more compelling) argument could be made for new voters who have to live with the consequences of the deceased's vote.

I did realise that, somehow disregarding the wishes of the dead just doesn't feel right to me. We can't be sure either way if the dead did make the right decision or not, you could also put forward a valid argument the new voter are alive & in control of their own destiny's without the need to disrespect the dead by pushing for 2nd referendum. It's a very divisive subject questioning morals.

[Paul Waine]

Here’s a recap for you.

Jonny said



...and you replied...



He showed you some of the economic models he was going off, and you moved the goalposts to say that you will only discuss with folk who built their own economic model from scratch - an absolutely ludicrous request and clearly an excuse to avoid admitting you have no “economic model or forecast that predicts the benefits to us for leaving”.

The way it works, Paul, is that if you make a claim, it’s up to you to back it up. When you come up with stupid excuses not to do so, I’ve every right to call you a liar.

Hi GM, you need to go back to the start of that conversation. Jumping in mid-way thru is only helping you quote something that has missed all the context.

And, why is it "an absolutely ludicrous request?" Aren't posters on here capable of creating and understanding economic models?

No worries. If you can't do it, just say you can't do it. Nothing to be ashamed of. Though, it might make one or two not put too much weight on your comments re economic models.

[martin_p]

I tell people who produce radio programs what they want to hear. I've tried being more straight forward and it simply doesn't work. You have to play the game to get your point over.

But I think its deeply unfair and totally inaccurate to refer to Marty as " some halfwit on the internet "

Why give the quarterwit an undeserved promotion!!!!!!!!???

You know that 'halfwit on the internet' he was referring to was you not me right? Halfwit!

[Paul Waine]

But why would you expect anyone to pay heed to your economic model just because you have the expertise to create one when you’re saying we shouldn’t pay heed to ones created by other people who have the expertise to create one? You immediately become the thing you’re telling us to ignore!

Hi martin, perhaps I should explain again, I'm asking to debate economic models with people who have knowledge and understanding of them. I'm not looking for a debate with people who only "back up" their position with ctrl c/ctrl v.

I guess, in footballing terms, I'm saying if you want to play the game, get your boots on and get on the pitch. If you don't then stay in the stands and watch how it is done.

[TheFamilyCat]

Friday Ringo is defo the best Ringo

He set the bar very high the other week when he got himself into a pickle about the Catalan referendum.

Jakub has been running him close recently in the bonkers stakes though.

[Greenmile]

Hi GM, you need to go back to the start of that conversation. Jumping in mid-way thru is only helping you quote something that has missed all the context.

And, why is it "an absolutely ludicrous request?" Aren't posters on here capable of creating and understanding economic models?

No worries. If you can't do it, just say you can't do it. Nothing to be ashamed of. Though, it might make one or two not put too much weight on your comments re economic models.

I’ve said I can’t, Paul. Twice. Maybe you need to read all of the conversation.

You’re claiming you can though, which is a lie. Lying might make one or two not put too much weight on your comments re everything and anything.

Prove me wrong. Show us the economic model you have created which shows the benefits of Brexit. I won’t hold my breath.

FWIW, I used to think you were better than this, but now you’re in the same category as dsr and Crosspool for me - folk who will just make stuff up in the hope that others might believe them.

[martin_p]

Hi martin, perhaps I should explain again, I'm asking to debate economic models with people who have knowledge and understanding of them. I'm not looking for a debate with people who only "back up" their position with ctrl c/ctrl v.

I guess, in footballing terms, I'm saying if you want to play the game, get your boots on and get on the pitch. If you don't then stay in the stands and watch how it is done.

Yes, but it's the people in the stands who do most of the debating, the footballers are doing the doing (analogous to creating the economic models). Poor analogy.

And I bet you've never written a uk government bill, but you still felt able to debate that.

[Paul Waine]

This thread is comedy gold right now, you've got one set of Brexiteers claiming you don't seek experts, but rely on old people's common sense.

And another saying that only he has the wisdom to comment, because he's an expert, because he read an economics book 50 years ago.

For us lurkers out there, please keep it up.

Hi SoP, I'm guessing you are referring to when I started studying economics yes, it is 50 years ago. Did you also think that I'd stopped there? Maybe it's the area I'm still working in today?

Btw: I didn't say I'm the only one with "the wisdom to comment." However, I am asking that all others who comment show some "knowledge and understanding" of the subject they are commenting on.

Who'd have guessed, I'm not getting responses from lots of people who say they know anything about economic models.....

Yes, that might be "comedy gold."

[KateR]

wow, this mornings recap on here was fun, seems like a lot of people got out the wrong side of bed, nothing much happening then I suppose!!

The debate on voting age was very interesting I thought, singled out a few ageists on here for sure, I'm always telling my children when younger to take more responsibility so I suppose we can add that in to the voting, we could of course reduce it to 13, I'm teenagers are smart aren't they. Plus while we are at let's put a cap on the voting age, obviously the preferred way would be to stop people from voting when they stop work. I mean obviously they are not contributing, they are just takers so why should they have any say? However difficult to manage so let's just do it at the official retirement age whether you retire or not, you have had your years, now the time for those you can understand things better to take over, thank you for your service, it was much appreciated.

[Greenmile]

...Btw: I didn't say I'm the only one with "the wisdom to comment." However, I am asking that all others who comment show some "knowledge and understanding" of the subject they are commenting on....

...whilst point blank refusing to do so yourself. Have you been taking hypocrisy lessons from Ringo?

[TVC15]

Hi martin, perhaps I should explain again, I'm asking to debate economic models with people who have knowledge and understanding of them. I'm not looking for a debate with people who only "back up" their position with ctrl c/ctrl v.

I guess, in footballing terms, I'm saying if you want to play the game, get your boots on and get on the pitch. If you don't then stay in the stands and watch how it is done.

Well I have created a number of economic models for a major Bank with internal assumptions and external macro assumptions provided by recognised economists - recognised as in approved by the PRA.

What I find unusual about your claim is that all an “economic model” is really is a forecast financial spreadsheet - yes i am simplifying it of course but it’s only as good as the assumptions built into the model.

What is it exactly you are professing you have or can do ?

[RingoMcCartney]

You know that 'halfwit on the internet' he was referring to was you not me right? Halfwit!

Well, greenmile was the one that said , and I quote , "when YOU'RE referring to some halfwit on a messageboard

Dont have a pop at me Marty!

Like I said a promotion is the last thing I'd give you!

[RingoMcCartney]

You mean you lie to them, and to the folk on the radio show (presenters, politicians etc).

For some reason, though, you think this is ok, yet “making stuff up” when you're talking to a halfwit on a messageboard is somehow unacceptable (again, I’m not accepting your assertion that Martin did this in the first place)

I don’t expect you to see the hypocrisy in this approach - I’m just pointing it out to other folk who may be reading in.

Look Marty, he's at it again!

[Paul Waine]

Yes, but it's the people in the stands who do most of the debating, the footballers are doing the doing (analogous to creating the economic models). Poor analogy.

And I bet you've never written a uk government bill, but you still felt able to debate that.

"head in hands," mate, just "head in hands."

I started by asking for someone who has created their own economic model to debate with me. My analogy was spot on. Yes, I am asking for the "doing the doing" players.

I think the player who has just scored sometimes marks it by placing his finger to his lips. Where's the "smiley" for "shush!"

[Greenmile]

Look Marty, he's at it again!

I don’t expect you to understand basic English either.

[martin_p]

Look Marty, he's at it again!

Yep, that was after you'd said to me that 'you're the only one making stuff up'. So Greenmile thought it odd that you thought it ok to make stuff up on the radio but seemed to have a problem with me making stuff up when talking to 'a 'halfwit on the internet' (that being you).

Comprehension was never your strong point, but I'm happy for Greenmile to correct me if I'm wrong.

[CombatClaret]

Great post. With regards your first point, though, why would the UK and the EU sit down and bash out a deal unless there was a public vote to leave. It would be an exercise in futility, should the public vote to remain, after all.

And the problem with your second point would still be how to honour the will of the people in the first vote. Let's say that the second referendum resulting in a small majority voting against the deal: the Remainers would interpret that as the people no longer wanting Brexit, but the Leavers would interpret it as the people still wanting Brexit - just not THAT particular Brexit. It would be chaos.

1) Parliament could have passed a bill saying 'We will have a referendum on X date, a year or two in the future. Then the UK and EU sit down to draft a bill knowing there will be a referendum. That the logical way to hold a referendum, the same as the Irish abortion one, a bill was drafted. People voted for it.

2) Again this is the problem with the blank cheque Brexit vote we had. Every leave option was lumped into one vote in Ref 1, but if all these options were presented in Ref 2 leavers would complain it was diluting their vote. There is no majority for any one type of Brexit.

[martin_p]

"head in hands," mate, just "head in hands."

I started by asking for someone who has created their own economic model to debate with me. My analogy was spot on. Yes, I am asking for the "doing the doing" players.

I think the player who has just scored sometimes marks it by placing his finger to his lips. Where's the "smiley" for "shush!"

Nope, you were saying you'd only debate with someone capable of creating a model (having the knowledge and understanding of them)

Hi martin, perhaps I should explain again, I'm asking to debate economic models with people who have knowledge and understanding of them. I'm not looking for a debate with people who only "back up" their position with ctrl c/ctrl v.

I guess, in footballing terms, I'm saying if you want to play the game, get your boots on and get on the pitch. If you don't then stay in the stands and watch how it is done.

[Paul Waine]

Well I have created a number of economic models for a major Bank with internal assumptions and external macro assumptions provided by recognised economists - recognised as in approved by the PRA.

What I find unusual about your claim is that all an “economic model” is really is a forecast financial spreadsheet - yes i am simplifying it of course but it’s only as good as the assumptions built into the model.

What is it exactly you are professing you have or can do ?

Hi TVC15, at last, there is someone else on this board who has experience working with economic models.

[RingoMcCartney]

He set the bar very high the other week when he got himself into a pickle about the Catalan referendum.

Jakub has been running him close recently in the bonkers stakes though.

Remoaners- rewriting history is their specialism!

I get it, I pointed out that the EU saying the brutal violence dished out to , in many cases , elderly women and men, who were simply , peacefully using a democratic referendum to Express their preference for self determination and independence, was , appropriate. Embarrasses hard line little Europeaners and evangelical EU nationalist zealots.

I know its heresy, to your puritanical federalist faith.

But hey, suck it up.

If rewriting history is your thing , fill your boots!

[Greenmile]

Well I have created a number of economic models for a major Bank with internal assumptions and external macro assumptions provided by recognised economists - recognised as in approved by the PRA.

What I find unusual about your claim is that all an “economic model” is really is a forecast financial spreadsheet - yes i am simplifying it of course but it’s only as good as the assumptions built into the model.

What is it exactly you are professing you have or can do ?

Paul claims to have constructed his own economic model which predicts the benefits to us for leaving. He’s keeping it a secret though. Not because it doesn’t exist and he’s made it up. Oh no. It’s because nobody on here has constructed their own economic model from scratch which shows the opposite.

For some reason, we’re not allowed to reference economic models from actual experts. Paul’s had enough of experts, you see. He’s only willing to discuss an economic model built from the ground up by someone who regularly posts on a Burnley FC messageboard.

[RingoMcCartney]

I don’t expect you to understand basic English either.

Back pedalling is not a good look!

[Greenmile]

Back pedalling is not a good look!

Back-pedalling from what?

[CombatClaret]

Boris is still making the claim that Parliament has approved the Withdrawal agreement.

He's gone full Trump

[Paul Waine]

1) Parliament could have passed a bill saying 'We will have a referendum on X date, a year or two in the future. Then the UK and EU sit down to draft a bill knowing there will be a referendum. That the logical way to hold a referendum, the same as the Irish abortion one, a bill was drafted. People voted for it.

2) This is the problem with the blank cheque Brexit vote we had. Every leave option was lumped into one vote in Ref 1, but if all these options were presented in Ref 2 leavers would complain it was diluting their vote.

Hi Combat, you may have read some of my posts through the past 3-4 years. The Lisbon Treaty should have included the "withdrawal agreement" terms. That would have been the best way to deal with your point 1.

Point 2 - referenda should only ever be on binary questions, "yes" or "no", "leave" or "remain." We have Gov't and MPs to settle all the details. We've got to recognise that "remain" isn't a "one size" "never changing" option - just like "leave" may have variations, both now and in the future.

[Paul Waine]

Paul claims to have constructed his own economic model which predicts the benefits to us for leaving. He’s keeping it a secret though. Not because it doesn’t exist and he’s made it up. Oh no. It’s because nobody on here has constructed their own economic model from scratch which shows the opposite.

For some reason, we’re not allowed to reference economic models from actual experts. Paul’s had enough of experts, you see. He’s only willing to discuss an economic model built from the ground up by someone who regularly posts on a Burnley FC messageboard.

Hi GM, keep typing, my friend. But, please recognise that so much of what you type you get wrong.

[RingoMcCartney]

Yep, that was after you'd said to me that 'you're the only one making stuff up'. So Greenmile thought it odd that you thought it ok to make stuff up on the radio but seemed to have a problem with me making stuff up when talking to 'a 'halfwit on the internet' (that being you).

Comprehension was never your strong point, but I'm happy for Greenmile to correct me if I'm wrong.

Hey , dont give me grief Marty!

Its Greenmile you've a beef with!

Anyway, like a team that scraped into the play offs , and then won at Wembley, with a single , but belting goal, (Wade) a promotion is a promotion!

Take it with both hands quarterwit, or should I now address you as your new pay level apparently demands according to Greenmile!

[Greenmile]

Hi GM, keep typing, my friend. But, please recognise that so much of what you type you get wrong.

Still waiting for the economic model you claim to have Paul. Keep typing, but try to lie less - you might get a bit more respect if you manage it.

[RingoMcCartney]

Back-pedalling from what?

Hey, you've got some explaining to do when Marty catches up with you!

[Greenmile]

Hey, you've got some explaining to do when Marty catches up with you!

WTF are you talking about?

If you’re going to live here, you should really learn the language.

[TheFamilyCat]

Remoaners- rewriting history is their specialism!

I get it, I pointed out that the EU saying the brutal violence dished out to , in many cases , elderly women and men, who were simply , peacefully using a democratic referendum to Express their preference for self determination and independence, was , appropriate. Embarrasses hard line little Europeaners and evangelical EU nationalist zealots.

I know its heresy, to your puritanical federalist faith.

But hey, suck it up.

If rewriting history is your thing , fill your boots!

Proof once more that Ringo either:
a. Doesn't read other people's posts
b. Doesn't understand people's post; or
c. Completely forgets them (possibly due to inebriation)

[KateR]

Well I have created a number of economic models for a major Bank with internal assumptions and external macro assumptions provided by recognised economists - recognised as in approved by the PRA.

What I find unusual about your claim is that all an “economic model” is really is a forecast financial spreadsheet - yes i am simplifying it of course but it’s only as good as the assumptions built into the model.

What is it exactly you are professing you have or can do ?

Any and all future predictions and economic models included are built on assumptions and have inherent built in risk regardless of what industry business or country, it's as you said it's a predication, no one and I mean no one get's them right. It's an attempt to show what will happen if certain things go right and also if they go wrong, you can build one for next week, next month and be potentially wrong. The point so many people on here fail to understand is that experts are often wrong, not just occasionally, you can predict market swings through what you believe are influencer's, but sometimes they just don't happen.

Go back and look at the head of the Bank of England's predictions since 2015, many times wrong, changed his mind continually, would any one care to say categorically he is not considered an expert? That is just one, some will be right some will be wrong in terms of better or worse, none of them as an economic model will be right.

Just for clarity I have built numerous economic models for business, in the $billions, involving different countries and client combined, I have built 30 year models for banks who wanted a model to confirm whether they would lend money to a country or not. I still don't consider myself an expert.

[Lord Beamish]

Half-Wits, Quarter-Wits; Wrongo’s Wit is as good as Homeopathic.

[RingoMcCartney]

Keep up the good work Paul "Messi" Waine! We all know who has the silky skills!

That lot couldn't trap a bag o' cement!


Have a top weekend Ladies.


Let's put that lot from daaaaan the Kings Road in their place , and bring em back down to footballing reality , after their midweek exploits , with an east Lancashire bump!

Come on you Clarets!

[TVC15]

Paul claims to have constructed his own economic model which predicts the benefits to us for leaving. He’s keeping it a secret though. Not because it doesn’t exist and he’s made it up. Oh no. It’s because nobody on here has constructed their own economic model from scratch which shows the opposite.

For some reason, we’re not allowed to reference economic models from actual experts. Paul’s had enough of experts, you see. He’s only willing to discuss an economic model built from the ground up by someone who regularly posts on a Burnley FC messageboard.

Bit harsh - feels reading some of the recent posts he could have worded what he meant a bit better.
What I would say is that economic models created by experts might not be much better than those created by “amateurs”.....if you could put your trust in them then explain why 2 so called experts can produce 2 economic models which predict exactly the opposite to each other ?!!

Most economic models (if not all) will have large elements of bias - of course you will have some standard macro assumptions that everyone should use the same numbers but then you have a whole new set of assumptions that are basically down to the “expert” to build.

The problem is that a lot of the time the experts are told what the final answer needs to be by the person commissioning the report and you then build the model backwards to fit that answer and try and make it look as credible as you can.
Believe me this was exactly how it worked in the Bank - I often had to build 2 models - one with what I thought would happen in the next 3 to 5 years based on factual history / trends and very realistic other assumptions and then one where I had to get to the numbers I had been told to reach by the Board.
The reason I did that many times so I could very easily track the variance the year after because I knew mine was a lot more accurate !!

[Greenmile]

Bit harsh - feels reading some of the recent posts he could have worded what he meant a bit better...

He’s had every opportunity to clarify or correct what he said, or to prove to us that he’s not lying (by providing the economic model he claimed to have built) and has failed to do so, so I don’t think it’s harsh at all.

There’s not much I dislike more than folk who deliberately tell lies.

[TVC15]

Any and all future predictions and economic models included are built on assumptions and have inherent built in risk regardless of what industry business or country, it's as you said it's a predication, no one and I mean no one get's them right. It's an attempt to show what will happen if certain things go right and also if they go wrong, you can build one for next week, next month and be potentially wrong. The point so many people on here fail to understand is that experts are often wrong, not just occasionally, you can predict market swings through what you believe are influencer's, but sometimes they just don't happen.

Go back and look at the head of the Bank of England's predictions since 2015, many times wrong, changed his mind continually, would any one care to say categorically he is not considered an expert? That is just one, some will be right some will be wrong in terms of better or worse, none of them as an economic model will be right.

Just for clarity I have built numerous economic models for business, in the $billions, involving different countries and client combined, I have built 30 year models for banks who wanted a model to confirm whether they would lend money to a country or not. I still don't consider myself an expert.

Completely agree and I was going to mention 2008 / 2009 as the best (or worst !) example of this.
I am deliberately dumbing down how much of a skill this is to make a point - of course me and you are geniuses and without our models it’s unlikely the world would still be turning on its axis !

[TVC15]

He’s had every opportunity to clarify or correct what he said, or to prove to us that he’s not lying (by providing the economic model he claimed to have built) and has failed to do so, so I don’t think it’s harsh at all.

There’s not much I dislike more than folk who deliberately tell lies.

Ok that’s your view - mine is that you are getting your knickers in a twist about something not that important. And using terms like “lying” is just a bit over the top.
The point I’m making is that even if he sends you a spreadsheet with a few numbers in (because essentially that’s all it is)...so what ?
All that will happen then is that there will be a big debate on its content.

If he sends it to me and it’s got a big leave bias as I suspect all I will do is tear it apart. If I sent him one that I had done with much more doom and gloom resulting from leaving (which is infact my view) all he would do is tear that apart..!!

[Greenmile]

Ok that’s your view - mine is that you are getting your knickers in a twist about something not that important. And using terms like “lying” is just a bit over the top.
The point I’m making is that even if he sends you a spreadsheet with a few numbers in (because essentially that’s all it is)...so what ?
All that will happen then is that there will be a big debate on its content.

If he sends it to me and it’s got a big leave bias as I suspect all I will do is tear it apart. If I sent him one that I had done with much more doom and gloom resulting from leaving (which is infact my view) all he would do is tear that apart..!!

This is mostly fair enough, but if I claim to have evidence of something and then use every excuse on the book not to show that evidence, I’d expect people to call my initial claim out as a lie.

I’m happy to accept that I’m over-reacting a little, but that’s just because I hate liars and I thought better of Paul before today, so I’m genuinely (as genuine as one can be on a forum like this) disappointed in him.

Edit to add - you’re right in that the models I have asked him to show us probably wouldn’t mean much to me (if they exist, which they don’t), but I would then rely on better-placed folk such as yourself to point out any flaws, or to agree wholeheartedly with what they say. That’s what normal folk do - they rely on others with more expertise than them.

It’s the debate itself that’s of value to me as I might learn something new.

[TVC15]

This is mostly fair enough, but if I claim to have evidence of something and then use every excuse on the book not to show that evidence, I’d expect people to call my initial claim out as a lie.

I’m happy to accept that I’m over-reacting a little, but that’s just because I hate liars and I thought better of Paul before today, so I’m genuinely (as genuine as one can be on a forum like this) disappointed in him.

I know - this Brexit nonsense is very divisive isn’t it ?!!

We need to be careful as to where the debate on this thread is going though - it’s veering dangerously into the territory of asking for EVIDENCE.....and I think if we have to read another 10,000 posts on this it will break most of us !!

[KateR]

Completely agree and I was going to mention 2008 / 2009 as the best (or worst !) example of this.
I am deliberately dumbing down how much of a skill this is to make a part - of course me and you are geniuses and without our models it’s unlikely the world would still be turning on its axis !

GM and the vast majority on here would not have a clue how to interrogate an economic model of any complexity involving integrated spreadsheets, with numerous assumptions, where the potentially you can run it as - expected - better - worse by manipulating conditions, this involve natural disasters, manmade disasters just as a small example. This is not a criticism as I really don't believe they have read an economic models, which forecasts the doom and gloom of Brexit, they have read the projected outcomes, I looked at the actual words used by these experts even the ones highlighted today, prominent words were used, because they were experts, should, could have an exact legal meaning when you go to court over arbitration for example, they are cop out weasel words experts use that ensure there predictions have no basis behind them such that if someone uses there work they can never come back and try to sue on the basis of losses. I'm sure the vast majority have read the same weasel words by every company, every prospectus for shares/unit trusts etc. In other words we think this might happen but we will never guarantee it will, why, because they are so often wrong because you can not model the future, it is not a science, some I have seen are at the best a SWAG.

I certainly would never try to look at an economic or financial model by anyone on here or by todays so called experts who drop headlines which are in reality built on guesses, I am GM and co I just look at the outcomes, but then I do try to look behind why they have predicted something in order to satisfy myself as to whether it is relevant to the headline or not. So please don't build and publish any economic models on here please, I mean anyone.