Cheltenham 2019

[happyclaret17]

At this time of year with lots of poor racing I am usually getting stuck into the cheltenham form.
Recent years however have rendered lots of form study fairly pointless with the emergence of Mullins and Elliott so this year I have just looked at these 2 stables last 2 years results at the cheltenham festival.
I have split their results into 5 categories and only included horses at 3/1 or bigger.
national hunt flat.
novice ( none hcap ) hurdle
hcap hurdle
novice ( none hcap ) chase
hcap chase

NATIONAL HUNT FLAT
MULLINS 1/7 .....winner 25/1......4 from 7 finished in first 4......so win bet his runners.
ELLIOTT 1/2......winner 7/1.....so win bet his runners.

NONE HCAP HURDLE
MULLINS ....4/47.....winners at 12/1....9/2....16/1.....10/1....returns poor and long losing runs....no bet
ELLIOTT.....3/11 .....winners at 9/1....7/2....25/1.....win bet all his runners

HCAP HURDLE
MULLINS.....2/23....BOTH WON AT 20/1.....10 of his runners were 16/1 or bigger and these will be the bets for me.
ELLIOTT.....4/23....11/1....6/1....33/1....12/1.....win bet all his runners.

NONE HCAP CHASE
MULLINS.....1/17.....9/2 winner....no bet
ELLIOTT.....4/13.....4/1....7/1.....4/1....16/1......win bet all runners.

HCAP CHASE
MULLINS.....0/3....no bet
ELLIOTT....1/9.....no bet

so thats 81 bets in last 2 years which returned 217.5 points at starting price....best odds guaranteed and exchange prices will boost this return further....seriously good returns for 2 such powerful yards.
so if results follow a similar pattern you could expect 7 or 8 winners for the week with 3 winners 16/1 to 33/1 and another 4 or 5 winners between 3/1 to 14/1.... .nothing is ever quite that simple but by betting these 2 stables in the races they have proven profitable to follow in you should have a few winners at nice prices without straining your brain.....its a case of if you can't beat em then join em.

obviously this Equine flu could throw a spanner in the works so hoping for the best.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Get ready for the inevitable reply

[THEWELLERNUT70]

It could yet be in some doubt HappyClaret unfortunately. I just hope we are in the clear for Aintree

[happyclaret17]

Get ready for the inevitable reply

.....
Water of this ducks back now Bordeaux
if someone wants to argue with facts then happy to leave them to it.
I was surprised just how good the returns were to be honest...but ELLIOTT is undoubtedly the man....far less runners and far better strike rate.....he targets hi races better than Mullins who often has multiple entries in many races.....interesting that both perform poorly with the handicap chasers.

[JohnMac]

Cheers Happy!

[conyoviejo]

No racing until at least next Wednesday.. Bummer .

[happyclaret17]

No racing until at least next Wednesday.. Bummer .

....
might have to talk to the girlfriend

[conyoviejo]

....
might have to talk to the girlfriend

Oo er.. There's always the greyhound racing

[happyclaret17]

Only just back in from golfing so not checked whats happening but if Ireland isnt affected you can bet your bottom dollar that dundalk and maybe an Irish jump track or 2 will get extra fixtures....wont be getting any of my money though...parasites.

[Kevwando]

Mullins only 1 out of 20 winners at more than 3/1 in chasers. Do you know how many chase winners he had that were less than 3/1?

[happyclaret17]

This is mullins record with chasers handicap or none hcap for last 2 years at cheltenham. I dont have many bets under 3/1 personally but betting shortish odds at the festival for me is nuts.
16.03.2018 Cheltenham Bachasson (FR) 33/1 F/15
16.03.2018 Cheltenham Djakadam (FR) 25/1 5th/15
16.03.2018 Cheltenham Killultagh Vic (IRE) 8/1 PU/15
16.03.2018 Cheltenham Total Recall (IRE) 14/1 F/15
15.03.2018 Cheltenham Un De Sceaux (FR) 8/11 2nd/6
15.03.2018 Cheltenham Kemboy (FR) 15/2 4th/9
15.03.2018 Cheltenham Invitation Only (IRE) 9/2 PU/9
14.03.2018 Cheltenham Douvan (FR) 9/2 F/9
14.03.2018 Cheltenham Min (FR) 5/2 2nd/9
14.03.2018 Cheltenham Al Boum Photo (FR) 8/1 F/10
14.03.2018 Cheltenham Bonbon Au Miel (FR) 33/1 F/10
13.03.2018 Cheltenham Rathvinden (IRE) 9/2 1st/16
13.03.2018 Cheltenham Pylonthepressure (IRE) 16/1 5th/16
13.03.2018 Cheltenham Footpad (FR) 5/6 1st/5
17.03.2017 Cheltenham Djakadam (FR) 3/1 4th/13
16.03.2017 Cheltenham Un De Sceaux (FR) 7/4 1st/8
16.03.2017 Cheltenham Yorkhill (IRE) 6/4 1st/8
15.03.2017 Cheltenham Alelchi Inois (FR) 20/1 PU/16
15.03.2017 Cheltenham Douvan (FR) 2/9 7th/10
15.03.2017 Cheltenham Bellshill (IRE) 5/1 3rd/12
14.03.2017 Cheltenham Haymount (IRE) 33/1 3rd/18
14.03.2017 Cheltenham Arbre De Vie (FR) 14/1 UR/18
14.03.2017 Cheltenham Royal Caviar (IRE) 6/1 4th/9

[Kevwando]

Brilliant thanks happy. I love a good stat/trend when placing a bet at the festival

[happyclaret17]

plenty more where they came from...can run thousands of different things pretty quickly so if you need any info just give me a nudge.

[Goobs]

....
might have to talk to the girlfriend

Bit drastic that mate. Perfect excuse for extra golf or cycling

[happyclaret17]

Bit drastic that mate. Perfect excuse for extra golf or cycling

....
and thats exactly what I will be doing Goobs

[PaintYorkClaretnBlue]

We’ve played golf three times since Monday

[happyclaret17]

then once Cheltenham is over and you have a big fat Wallet, don't forget to back Colin Tizzards runners at Aintree
14.04.2018 Aintree Solatentif (FR) 20/1 6th/15
14.04.2018 Aintree The Dutchman (IRE) 20/1 UR/38
14.04.2018 Aintree Lostintranslation (IRE) 12/1 2nd/12
13.04.2018 Aintree Shanahans Turn (IRE) 14/1 2nd/27
13.04.2018 Aintree Ultragold (FR) 14/1 1st/27
13.04.2018 Aintree Sizing Granite (IRE) 20/1 3rd/6
13.04.2018 Aintree Elegant Escape (IRE) 4/1 3rd/9
13.04.2018 Aintree Vision Des Flos (FR) 11/4 2nd/13
13.04.2018 Aintree Slate House (IRE) 10/1 8th/13
13.04.2018 Aintree Storm Home (IRE) 7/1 10th/19
12.04.2018 Aintree Sizing Platinum (IRE) 20/1 6th/16
12.04.2018 Aintree Grand Vision (IRE) 7/2 F/21
12.04.2018 Aintree Sizing Codelco (IRE) 33/1 4th/8
12.04.2018 Aintree Padleyourowncanoe 25/1 9th/10
12.04.2018 Aintree Finians Oscar (IRE) 5/2 1st/6
8.04.2017 Aintree Sizing Codelco (IRE) 10/1 1st/16
8.04.2017 Aintree Finians Oscar (IRE) 3/1 1st/13
8.04.2017 Aintree Morello Royale (IRE) 33/1 14th/22
7.04.2017 Aintree Elegant Escape (IRE) 25/1 7th/11
7.04.2017 Aintree West Approach 8/1 PU/11
7.04.2017 Aintree Ultragold (FR) 50/1 1st/29
7.04.2017 Aintree Quite By Chance 33/1 PU/29
7.04.2017 Aintree Third Intention (IRE) 20/1 F/29
7.04.2017 Aintree Fox Norton (FR) 4/1 1st/9
7.04.2017 Aintree Pingshou (IRE) 16/1 1st/9
6.04.2017 Aintree Cue Card 2/1 2nd/7

7 winners from 26 in last 2 years with winners at 14/1...5/2...10/1...3/1....50/1...4/1....16/1 aint too dusty...even taking out the 50/1 winner gives a healthy return.....should you wish to ignore 3/1 or less then the record is 5 from 22 which will give a better percentage profit on turnover.

[happyclaret17]

We’ve played golf three times since Monday

.....
dont ever give paintyorkclaretnblue shots at golf.....bandit alert .

[happyclaret17]

btw if anyone wants to back the mullins/elliott runners at cheltenham in the races outlined above....obviously you can level stake bet per selection but if you prefer to have a fixed sum per race and there is more than 1 selection per race then just go to the link below...put your total stake and odds in and it works out your stake for you.
https://www.oddschecker.com/betting-too ... calculator" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Kevwando]

plenty more where they came from...can run thousands of different things pretty quickly so if you need any info just give me a nudge.

Thanks, will do! I'm currently having a look through gaulstats website

[happyclaret17]

Gaulstats is excellent but I have found that far too many trends are being broken at Cheltenham and also the grand national.....I do like the scottish national though....had first and 2nd last year...from memory I think forecast was something like 700 and odd.

[happyclaret17]

btw my form book and system checker is horseracebase.com....its a voluntary subscription so can cost as much or as little as you like.....loads of features on it and worth a look.

[Kevwando]

I'm not massively clued up on racing, I find stats/trends fun & helps me to shorten the fields. I'll have a look at your website, thanks.

[tybfc]

Happy - Just in my own opinion and I know that there will be massive pressure on the industry to get Cheltenham to go ahead I do not think that it will.

This virus is spreading to horses that are already vaccinated against it and they are desperate to stop it spreading.

Cheltenham is only just over a month away and there is no way that any chances are going to be taken of risking the worlds best horses.

I hope that I am proved wrong.

[happyclaret17]

Yes tybfc, since I posted the potential scale of the whole thing has come to light. If cheltenham is called off then maybe Aintree and certainly Punchestown will have some very strong fields going to post.

[Goobs]

Yes tybfc, since I posted the potential scale of the whole thing has come to light. If cheltenham is called off then maybe Aintree and certainly Punchestown will have some very strong fields going to post.

Would Cheltenham not be re-scheduled rather than cancelled if that is the case?

[happyclaret17]

Hopefuly but that could then detract from Aintree and maybe Punchestown.....if Cheltenham does go ahead or is re scheduled I can only see the Irish benefitting.

[conyoviejo]

They seem to benefit every Cheltenham ,Happy.. Lol

[happyclaret17]

They seem to benefit every Cheltenham ,Happy.. Lol

....
well mullins and Elliott getting more than half of the winners between them these days.....this year I will be looking at the handicap chases for the home team if it goes ahead so hopefully get a winner or 2 from just doing the form.

[Dyched]

Had a belting Festival last year
Tuck advantage of skybets £20 money back if placed
Had 3/4 first race winners and second the other day

Hopefully it goes ahead. Not only is it a belting watch but business would be losing a ton of money!!

What chances if cancel is there of rescheduling? Pretty slim/no chance I presume?

[happyclaret17]

Possibly good news for the festivals if bookies are correct.
Bookies have priced up the possible extent of the equine flu outbreak on UK meetings.

In light of the news that there was evidence of an equine influenza outbreak late on Wednesday night, four UK meetings were cancelled on Thursday with more set to follow in the coming days.

Now the question lies with when horse racing is likely to return in the UK, amidst uncertainty surrounding the severity of the outbreak at this stage.

Bookies have ‘Before 18th February’ priced as their most likely outcome at 1/5. This implies an 83.3% chance racing returns within the next two weeks. However, some high-profile races this coming weekend are likely to be affected, including the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.

In the event that the outbreak is severe, the possibility of UK racing being cancelled until 1st March or after is priced at 5/1.

This instance would see the highlights of the season, Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National, possibly affected. Bookies see this as unlikely at this stage, implying a 16.7% chance of that outcome.

Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek: "Although the influenza outbreak could have severe effects across the UK and Ireland, fears that Cheltenham could be under threat may be slightly allayed with the short prices on offer."

"The immediate concerns will be around the welfare of scores of UK-based horses, but with major meetings already under threat this weekend, trainers and owners will hope the precautionary actions have been effective."

[happyclaret17]

good to hear that racing is back on....I think that Joseph o brien could have a winner or maybe 2 with a young hurdler...he seems to have a real depth of talent in his team this year...may well be including him in the plan without having years of results to back it up.

[Flyingboltclaret]

I'm not massively clued up on racing, I find stats/trends fun & helps me to shorten the fields. I'll have a look at your website, thanks.

Just running some stats on Proform database for Cheltenham tomorrow ..so if you have any queries re anything ..trainers, trainer/jockeys, sires,first time headgear, or anything no matter how obscure let me know and will try to find out for you . it’s always nice to find an edge .

[iowalan]

good to see people take cheltenham betting seriously ....the happy chap is absolutely right in putting joseph obrien stable in the frame ...i think as willie mullins fades slowly joseph will grow ,,,just my opinion ....could very well start with fakir doudaries in the supreme {nap}.......i also think that the british trainers are learning how not to over expose horses destined for cheltenham .......as the irish have done ...for this reason i think the skeltons may have a winner or two and maybe phillip hobbs as well ....good luck everybody !!

[Bordeauxclaret]

Just running some stats on Proform database for Cheltenham tomorrow ..so if you have any queries re anything ..trainers, trainer/jockeys, sires,first time headgear, or anything no matter how obscure let me know and will try to find out for you . it’s always nice to find an edge .

Thanks Tim.

[Quickenthetempo]

With all the rain about recently. Where's the best place to find all the mud loving horses?

[bfccrazy]

With all the rain about recently. Where's the best place to find all the mud loving horses?

In the mud ??

[Quickenthetempo]

Ruby wins the first one with Klassical dream

[bfccrazy]

Duc Des Genievres wins the Novice